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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Fara

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  • Death to Splitters! Unite for Labour Unity!
    Exclusive: Len McCluskey declares war on shadow cabinet "Blairites"
    Unite general secretary says Miliband will be "defeated" and "cast into the dustbin of history" if he gets "seduced" by "the Jim Murphys and the Douglas Alexanders".
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/exclusive-len-mccluskey-declares-war-shadow-cabinet-blairites

    But it is coming from Labour's biggest paymaster. We know that McCluskey has said he will direct funding in ways that help the aims (his) of Unite. Therefore we should expect a bigger % of hard left candidates selected for 2015. Maybe bolstered by deselections of some "Progress" MPs?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    That Chuka piece is incredible inane for the most part. What does the "base" part of "manufacturing base" actually mean? Generally it's a flag that the speaker does not understand economics.

    One dodgy piece was this: "Public contracts can be used, after all, to advance public goals: to train apprenticeships, to encourage innovation, and to boost local employment."

    So Umunna is going to select public procurement providers on the basis of apprenticeships trained rather than value for money?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    UKIP candidate swamped in South Shields by *Labour* voters saying they'll swap to him. UKIP have even rented out shop front to campaign.

    They can;t. can they.....??? politics can't get that sexy, can it....?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    taffys said:

    UKIP candidate swamped in South Shields by *Labour* voters saying they'll swap to him. UKIP have even rented out shop front to campaign.

    They can;t. can they.....??? politics can't get that sexy, can it....?

    It'd be even more amusing than George Gallway winning - can you imagine the fuss if Labour didn't win?! Seismic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited April 2013
    If UKIP wins in South Shields then normal politics will have to be suspended for a while. It would be off the chart extraordinary and would render any forecasting of the result of GE 2015 pointless. Galloway could be explained away, a UKIP win on 2nd May could not be.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    David Miliband may have some questions to answer if Ukip win S-Shields...


  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I suspect UKIP will give Labour a scare but still won't win.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    TGOHF said:

    David Miliband may have some questions to answer if Ukip win S-Shields...


    Not as many as Ed!

  • samsam Posts: 727
    Plato said:

    taffys said:

    UKIP candidate swamped in South Shields by *Labour* voters saying they'll swap to him. UKIP have even rented out shop front to campaign.

    They can;t. can they.....??? politics can't get that sexy, can it....?

    It'd be even more amusing than George Gallway winning - can you imagine the fuss if Labour didn't win?! Seismic.
    It will mean the smears that have been put aside for The European Elections or 2015 will have to be dusted off earlier than expected... and it will look like the LibLabCon dont trust the people to think for themselves

  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    I don't think UKIP will win but OGH's handy little punt at 6-1 on UKIP reaching 30% - 40% could stand a real chance.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories and LDs will be lucky to win 10% between them in South Shields.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    Death to Splitters! Unite for Labour Unity!

    Exclusive: Len McCluskey declares war on shadow cabinet "Blairites"
    Unite general secretary says Miliband will be "defeated" and "cast into the dustbin of history" if he gets "seduced" by "the Jim Murphys and the Douglas Alexanders".

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/exclusive-len-mccluskey-declares-war-shadow-cabinet-blairites

    Evidence Len ?

    With friends like Len and Gorgeous George...
    Hopi Sen just tweeted:

    "Well, @LiamByrneMP should be celebrating tonight. Len Mccluskey just made him unsackable. Sometimes I scratch my head, I really do."

    In the words of Comrade Len:

    "Liam Byrne certainly doesn’t reflect the views of my members and of our union’s policy, I think some of the terminology that he uses is regrettable and I think it will damage Labour. Ed’s got to figure out what his team will be."

    Do I detect a hint?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories and LDs will be lucky to win 10% between them in South Shields.

    LDs 5/6 to lose deposit Tories 7/2... seem like good bets to me w PP

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    LDs/Con should vote tactically in SS to keep Labour out.

    Potential death blow for rEd.

    All based on an ITV tweet anecdote ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are still 14/1 with PaddyPower re. South Shields.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A South Shields tabby cat has gone missing:

    http://www.nationalpetregister.org//mp/48154.htm
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP are still 14/1 with PaddyPower re. South Shields.

    That sounds about right for a UKIP win but they might sneak just over 30% so Mike's bet comes good.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There's an interesting hint in Iain Martin's blog that he has been given an indication that the GDP figure will be negative tomorrow:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100213716/labour-is-walking-right-into-the-tory-trap-on-welfare/

    "The Tories are potentially back in business – not withstanding tomorrow's GDP numbers – in quite an interesting way."

    There's not much else that's new in the piece though.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I suspect UKIP will give Labour a scare but still won't win.

    Agreed. Which will throw the spotlight on the coalition's extremely poor performance.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    2nd Ukip front opening up..

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 1m
    Lib Dem chief whip Alistair Carmichael tmrw goes to London solicitor office to see Portsmouth woman who accuses Mike Hancock of harassment
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    If UKIP can somehow harness the power of the WWC disaffected labour vote, then that would be very very interesting.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I'm a bit confused by the response of the Guardian, and others, to the statistic that about 1 million people capable of work have been unable to find work for a year or more in the last four years.

    Isn't this essentially what they have been arguing? That the recession and austerity have combined to put otherwise productive members of society out of work and government intervention is required so that these people can be put back to work.

    Isn't it the interpretation of the figures that should be challenged, rather than the figures themselves? It's not that these people are trapped on benefits due to a reluctance to work, or because the benefit system has them in their clutches, but because the economy isn't creating enough jobs.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Mori respond to Labour's accusation of bias.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1379/Accusations-by-Labour-List.aspx

    "Our attention has been drawn to an article by Mark Ferguson on the Labour List blog, which quotes “a Labour source” as saying “Mori (sic) consistently brief highly-selective data to create misleading impressions.”

    We reject this charge absolutely."

    continues...

    "On this occasion, 24% of the public said that they agreed that Ed Miliband was ready to be PM and 66% that they disagreed. It is hard to see how this could possibly be interpreted as anything but a poor result for Miliband. "
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    I would be absolutely flabberghasted should UKIP win. It's just not going to happen, although kudos for the expectations management for a seat that's been rock solid Labour since Aethelred the Unready.

    You are of course right but it's worth noting a recent Times article including it as one of the UK's 30 best places by the sea.

    28 South Shields, Tyne and Wear
    Why is it so great? Towns such as South Shields will show the biggest rise in prices over the next five years, says estate agent Savills. There are good beaches, good schools and the Metro to Newcastle and Sunderland.
    Who lives here? Young professionals and families.
    House prices: Four-bedroom terraces cost £250,000 in popular Westoe village. Detached homes in Harton are £400,000, and you can buy a flat for less than £70,000.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    "'Tough old bird' health minister Anna Soubry claims PM only gave her the 'soft girly' job because she is a woman":

    Http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313944/Anna-Soubry-claims-PM-gave-health-minister-job-woman.html#ixzz2ROisiak4
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TGOHF said:

    Mori respond to Labour's accusation of bias.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1379/Accusations-by-Labour-List.aspx

    "Our attention has been drawn to an article by Mark Ferguson on the Labour List blog, which quotes “a Labour source” as saying “Mori (sic) consistently brief highly-selective data to create misleading impressions.”

    We reject this charge absolutely."

    continues...

    "On this occasion, 24% of the public said that they agreed that Ed Miliband was ready to be PM and 66% that they disagreed. It is hard to see how this could possibly be interpreted as anything but a poor result for Miliband. "

    Having read their rejoinder:

    Ouch.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Grandiose said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mori respond to Labour's accusation of bias.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1379/Accusations-by-Labour-List.aspx

    "Our attention has been drawn to an article by Mark Ferguson on the Labour List blog, which quotes “a Labour source” as saying “Mori (sic) consistently brief highly-selective data to create misleading impressions.”

    We reject this charge absolutely."

    continues...

    "On this occasion, 24% of the public said that they agreed that Ed Miliband was ready to be PM and 66% that they disagreed. It is hard to see how this could possibly be interpreted as anything but a poor result for Miliband. "

    Having read their rejoinder:

    Ouch.

    It gets worse:
    On this occasion, 24% of the public said that they agreed that Ed Miliband was ready to be PM and 66% that they disagreed. It is hard to see how this could possibly be interpreted as anything but a poor result for Miliband. When we asked the same question about David Cameron in July 2008 (when Cameron had been leader for just as long as Ed Miliband has now), 43% agreed that he was ready to be Prime Minister and 43% disagreed.

    Nor do the leadership satisfaction questions, which we ask every month and which Mr Ferguson would apparently have preferred us to emphasise, show Mr Miliband doing better than Mr Cameron at the same stage either. Quite the contrary.

    In July 2008, 50% of the public were satisfied with the way David Cameron was doing his job and 29% dissatisfied, a net score of +21. In the same poll, 21% were satisfied with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and 72% dissatisfied, net -51. So David Cameron had a satisfaction score 29 points higher than Gordon Brown’s and a net score 72 better. This month, 32% are satisfied with David Cameron as PM and 60% dissatisfied, while 34% are satisfied with Ed Miliband and 50% dissatisfied, giving Mr Cameron a net score of -28 and Mr Miliband one of -16. So Mr Miliband has an advantage on satisfaction of just 2 points, or of 12 on net scores. He is much less far ahead of Mr Cameron than Mr Cameron was of Mr Brown in 2008, and his absolute scores are also much weaker.
    emphasis added

    Surely LabourList could not have wanted to deliberately bring this to people's attention?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If UKIP can somehow harness the power of the WWC disaffected labour vote, then that would be very very interesting.

    Indeed, but are they really offering the WWC enough? Not enough to win, I don;t think.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    Into day 5 of canvassing - enjoyed the shout from a group of teens: "We're all voting Tory. We want to alienate ourselves." And most appropriate doormat message, none of that wimpy Welcome stuff:

    "YOU AGAIN?"

    General impression: Labour vote stable at 2011 level (we won the 2011 local elections in my area). Tory vote soft and Kipping at the edges. LibDems down to personal vote
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories and LDs will be lucky to win 10% between them in South Shields.

    Really?

    The Tories had 20% last time, and we have been told many times by Mike that they are reluctant to vote tactically. I cannot see them getting less than 10%, with the LibDems certain to get some votes. I would guess about 15% for the coalition.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @sam

    You can see the left-liberal establishment, including the BBC, Guardian etc, are moving from thinking of UKIP as an amusing thing to hurt the Tories to being quite worried about how a serious rise could move UK politics to the right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    F1: in unsurprising news everything may not be going well for the Russian race:
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/meanwhile-in-izvestia/

    However, worries about $130m may seem odd after the country's spending on the Winter Olympics is expected to be $50bn, or fivefold the initial estimate:
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/04/23/ruminations-on-sochi/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "Baroness Ashton breaks savings promise to demand extra £18m
    Baroness Ashton has broken her promise to be "budget neutral" four years in a row with a demand for an £18 million increase in spending on the European Union's diplomatic service in 2014

    Lady Ashton will leave her post - with a salary of £287,543 - next October having failed to honour her pledge when taking the job in 2009 that creating the EEAS would not lead an increase in the size of the EU budget and would lead to cost savings over time.

    "Just before she goes off to enjoy her massive pension, it would have shown integrity had she fulfilled her promise of keeping the EEAS budget neutral," said Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party. "But I suppose Ashton can't be accused of being a politician making false promises, she was never once elected by the people to public office."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10015801/Baroness-Ashton-breaks-savings-promise-to-demand-extra-18m.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    sam said:

    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR

    It's worth remembering that the polls indicate most normal people do not support UKIP.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    tim said:

    @YouGov: New poll: Public thinks Alistair Darling would be better than George Osborne as chancellor http://t.co/fOZGwiMDN3

    Best Chancellor and Best PM polls are a nonsense due to incumbency bias

    The don't knows are very high, suggest 40%+ don't know who the hell any of them are.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,548

    F1: in unsurprising news everything may not be going well for the Russian race:
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/meanwhile-in-izvestia/

    However, worries about $130m may seem odd after the country's spending on the Winter Olympics is expected to be $50bn, or fivefold the initial estimate:
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/04/23/ruminations-on-sochi/

    There are some interesting rumours floating about (mostly not on the web) about why a woman was sent up by Red Bull onto the podium in Bahrain to collect the constructor's trophy. For those of you who do not know, the top three drivers collect trophies, as does a representative of the winning constructor. Mostly it is the team principal, but they often send up others, e.g. long-serving senior employees.

    Red Bull sent up the head of electronics, a woman. The last woman to receive a trophy was Ginny WIlliam in 1986, shortly after her husband's injury. It is the team's choice who to send up, and AIUI the organisers have no say.

    Red Bull chose to send up a woman in Bahrain, a country well-known for its women's rights.

    You can make an assumption about why they did it, and make a connection with an alleged incident at the airport when another team arrived.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting quote on Conhome about Cam labelling Labour the welfare party.

    The vast majority of people in this country are pro-welfare per se I reckon, and the tories have to be careful they don;t over play their hand here...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Balls pulls back on Spain and Italy

    Ed Balls's brother announced that PIMCO were reducing their holdings of Spanish and Italian bonds in order to reduce exposure to risk.

    Pacific Investment Management Co. cut its holdings of Spanish and Italian government debt starting last month after a rally in the securities, according to Andrew Balls, the London-based head of European portfolio management.

    “We’ve been reducing credit risk in our portfolios and in recent weeks we’ve cut Italy and Spain,” Balls said today in a telephone interview. “It’s a function of levels and fundamentals. The spreads look reasonable but not as attractive as they were.”


    I am assured that George Osborne is pleased to hear that UK Gilts will now form a larger share of the funds under Balls management.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    taffys said:

    Interesting quote on Conhome about Cam labelling Labour the welfare party.

    The vast majority of people in this country are pro-welfare per se I reckon, and the tories have to be careful they don;t over play their hand here...

    Good point. Those of us who have depended on welfare at some time or another remember that without it we would have been destitute. Just because certain members of the government have never known what it is like to be a welfare claimant does not mean that most voters are in the same boat. If Labour is the Welfare party, does that make the Tories the anti-Welfare Party?

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Daily Mail readers are virtually exploding over the crime statistics which pour cold water on their dearest prejudices.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

    Mark

    Do you have a percentage figure for the losses?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Daily Mail readers are virtually exploding over the crime statistics which pour cold water on their dearest prejudices.

    Link?

    Most popular comment:

    Britain is becoming a safer place¿Rubbish what Hugo Gye fails to mention is the fact that the main reason crimes has fallen is due to the puplic not reporting crimes as the police have stopped investigating crimes. How many times has it been reported that crime investigation is no longer done if the ploice think there is little chance of getting a conviction, they act as judge and jury, they no longer do the job they are paid to


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313942/UK-Peace-Index-Rate-murders-violent-crime-falling-faster-Western-Europe.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    I see the new Italian PM Enrico Letta was once a member of the former centre-right Christian Democrats, is seen as moderate of the left. His uncle, Gianni Letta, has been Mr Berlusconi's chief-of-staff for 10 years. However, he has also singled another government beginning to move away from austerity, Mr Letta said he would aim to change the course in Europe on austerity. "European policies are too focused on austerity which is no longer enough," he said, following a closed-door meeting with the president in Rome.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    So one was, one wasn't - that makes 50% - which is representative of the US (and UK) population as a whole.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    taffys said:

    Interesting quote on Conhome about Cam labelling Labour the welfare party.

    The vast majority of people in this country are pro-welfare per se I reckon, and the tories have to be careful they don;t over play their hand here...

    Good point. Those of us who have depended on welfare at some time or another remember that without it we would have been destitute. Just because certain members of the government have never known what it is like to be a welfare claimant does not mean that most voters are in the same boat. If Labour is the Welfare party, does that make the Tories the anti-Welfare Party?

    The problem, SO, is that benefits dependency is increasingly becoming associated in the minds of the public with child killing and terrorist bombing.

    These latter matters are issues upon which most mainstream parties are united in opposition.

    It is only a matter of time before such opposition transfers to welfare.

    It is the Philpotts and Tsarnaevs you should be blaming not the Tories.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    AveryLP said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting quote on Conhome about Cam labelling Labour the welfare party.

    The vast majority of people in this country are pro-welfare per se I reckon, and the tories have to be careful they don;t over play their hand here...

    Good point. Those of us who have depended on welfare at some time or another remember that without it we would have been destitute. Just because certain members of the government have never known what it is like to be a welfare claimant does not mean that most voters are in the same boat. If Labour is the Welfare party, does that make the Tories the anti-Welfare Party?

    The problem, SO, is that benefits dependency is increasingly becoming associated in the minds of the public with child killing and terrorist bombing.

    These latter matters are issues upon which most mainstream parties are united in opposition.

    It is only a matter of time before such opposition transfers to welfare.

    It is the Philpotts and Tsarnaevs you should be blaming not the Tories.

    I am all for the Tories seeking to equate welfare recipients with childkillers and terrorists.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

    Mark

    Do you have a percentage figure for the losses?
    It is 6.3% of 2010 Con voters and 3% of 2010 LD voters

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Daily Mail readers are virtually exploding over the crime statistics which pour cold water on their dearest prejudices.

    Link?

    Most popular comment:

    Britain is becoming a safer place¿Rubbish what Hugo Gye fails to mention is the fact that the main reason crimes has fallen is due to the puplic not reporting crimes as the police have stopped investigating crimes. How many times has it been reported that crime investigation is no longer done if the ploice think there is little chance of getting a conviction, they act as judge and jury, they no longer do the job they are paid to


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313942/UK-Peace-Index-Rate-murders-violent-crime-falling-faster-Western-Europe.html

    tim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Daily Mail readers are virtually exploding over the crime statistics which pour cold water on their dearest prejudices.

    Link?

    Most popular comment:

    Britain is becoming a safer place¿Rubbish what Hugo Gye fails to mention is the fact that the main reason crimes has fallen is due to the puplic not reporting crimes as the police have stopped investigating crimes. How many times has it been reported that crime investigation is no longer done if the ploice think there is little chance of getting a conviction, they act as judge and jury, they no longer do the job they are paid to


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313942/UK-Peace-Index-Rate-murders-violent-crime-falling-faster-Western-Europe.html
    It would seem unlikely to me that murder is under reported, even if other crimes are not reported.

    While there are lots of drunks out at night we do not see the pub fights that were such a feature of my youth in the eighties.

    I think violent crime has gone down internationally, just a bit more so in the UK than other places.

    Being a gansta in parts of London still seems to be a bit hazardous, but the effectiveness of the police in targetting this (with a few rare incidents like Mark Duggan) seems pretty good.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Of course if you use 2010 as the baseline, it appears that UKIP has hurt the Tories and LibDems, but this is simply because there always protest voters who can be relied upon to oppose whichever government is in power, and hence were lost to the Tories from the moment they gained office. The more interesting comparisons are between the polls once the Tory honeymoon wore off and those more recently. It is across this recent period that most of the UKIP gain in vote share has occurred, and I stîll maintain that it is now hitting Labour at least as much as the Tories. In many ways UKIP offers a more effective way to express disdain for the current state of affairs than does voting for the 'official' opposition, which I suggest will present a growing problem for Mr Brown's Boys...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Benefits dependency is increasingly becoming associated in the minds of the public with child killing and terrorist bombing.

    Maybe but benefits dependency and being on benefits are not the same thing. There are many, many people on benefits who would dearly love a job (especially older workers I would have thought),.

    It must be soul destroying to be repeatedly rejected by employers and at the same time labelled lazy by the government. I'm just saying the tories have to be careful.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IanB2 said:

    Of course if you use 2010 as the baseline, it appears that UKIP has hurt the Tories and LibDems, but this is simply because there always protest voters who can be relied upon to oppose whichever government is in power, and hence were lost to the Tories from the moment they gained office. The more interesting comparisons are between the polls once the Tory honeymoon wore off and those more recently. It is across this recent period that most of the UKIP gain in vote share has occurred, and I stîll maintain that it is now hitting Labour at least as much as the Tories. In many ways UKIP offers a more effective way to express disdain for the current state of affairs than does voting for the 'official' opposition, which I suggest will present a growing problem for Mr Brown's Boys...

    The last 4 ICM polls have found just 9 2010 Labour voters moving to UKIP .

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited April 2013
    taffys said:

    Benefits dependency is increasingly becoming associated in the minds of the public with child killing and terrorist bombing.

    Maybe but benefits dependency and being on benefits are not the same thing. There are many, many people on benefits who would dearly love a job (especially older workers I would have thought),.

    It must be soul destroying to be repeatedly rejected by employers and at the same time labelled lazy by the government. I'm just saying the tories have to be careful.

    And there are also plenty of people in work who have been on benefits in the past. Most people have a passing relationship with out of work benefits, except pensioners of course.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    HYUFD said:

    I see the new Italian PM Enrico Letta was once a member of the former centre-right Christian Democrats, is seen as moderate of the left. His uncle, Gianni Letta, has been Mr Berlusconi's chief-of-staff for 10 years. However, he has also singled another government beginning to move away from austerity, Mr Letta said he would aim to change the course in Europe on austerity. "European policies are too focused on austerity which is no longer enough," he said, following a closed-door meeting with the president in Rome.

    The Politicians won't determine fiscal and monetary policy in Italy. The big sovereign bond investors will.

    This makes Andrew Balls, Ed's more powerful brother, better positioned than Italy's new PM to determine Italian policy on austerity.

    After Balls in importance comes the Troika of the ECB, EU and IMF and the unofficial power of their paymasters, in particular Merkel.

    But the position is more nuanced than it sounds.

    PIMCO is offloading Spanish and Italian debt as the rest of the market reacts positively to the appointments of President and PM in Italy with the promise of at least interim stability. This is PIMCO, the worlds largest bond investor, telling the markets and politicians that the recent fall in borrowing costs is not matched by a commensurate fall in risks.

    At the same time, PIMCO's founder, Bill Gross, is warning that austerity measures imposed in Europe are stifling the recovery of their economies. Sounding more like Ed than Andrew Balls he highlighted the problems last week:

    "Bond investors want growth much like equity investors, and to the extent that too much austerity leads to recession or stagnation then credit spreads widen out – even if a country can print its own currency and write its own cheques," he said.

    "In the long term it is important to be fiscal and austere. It is important to have a relatively average or low rate of debt to GDP [gross domestic product]. The question in terms of the long term and the short term is how quickly to do it."


    So PIMCO appear to be selling Italy and Spain to reduce risk at the same time as arguing for investment stimulus rather than further austerity in the troubled countries.

    Similar conflicting signals are being reported by journalists to have been coming out of the IMF and they lie at the heart of the battles between the Repbulicans and Obama in Washington.

    All this background makes tomorrow morning's GDP figures far more politically than economically significant.

    We live in interesting times.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548
    tim said:

    This is funny.

    Theresa May made a strained joke about Mark Reckless, involving his surname, he's gone and complained to the Speaker

    I bet he gets really pissed off about always being the designated driver on nights out, just so people can make the "Reckless driving" gag....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

    How many voters in total have the two lost, to all alternatives?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

    Mark

    Do you have a percentage figure for the losses?
    It is 6.3% of 2010 Con voters and 3% of 2010 LD voters

    Thanks, Mark. Now makes sense.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    They genuinely seem to believe that murders are going unreported, wonder where all the bodies are?

    This was a good one

    I NEVER believe statistics. They're always changed to reflex the outcome wanted and stupid people fall for it.This country is a violent country.
    - dougal, London and Ireland, United Kingdom


    Where to start?

    Nigel Farage's garden.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Most people have a passing relationship with out of work benefits, except pensioners of course.

    That's why there's such a vitriolic hatred of cheats and malingers. The public knows they are taking money from deserving cases.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "UKIP also incredibly well resourced here [South Shields]. Apparently donations to the party have soared since Eastleigh and Rotherham by elections."

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/327086764047101952

    It'll be interesting to see the changes in the next set of published political parties' accounts. I think they're published in August.

    The LDs have been reported to be having trouble raising money, but I think the Conservatives might be too.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-finance-analysis-accounts#UKIP

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    "UKIP if you want to. The lady's NOT for kipping!"
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Interesting article from OGH. Regarding the key intra-coalition fights which make up most of these seats. If ICM are the gold standard then the Lib Dem losses to UKIP are running at 4 voters for every 5 that the Conservatives have lost.

    Taking into account that the Lib Dems have lost proportionately more voters overall than the Conservatives (according to the polls) then there maybe no significant net movement between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems this time around.

    In the 4 ICM polls so far in 2013 , the Conservatives have lost a total of 66 voters to UKIP , the Lib Dems just 17

    Mark

    Do you have a percentage figure for the losses?
    It is 6.3% of 2010 Con voters and 3% of 2010 LD voters

    Thanks, Mark. Now makes sense.

    That is if by LD and Con voters you mean current identifiers rather than 2010 voters.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    taffys said:

    Most people have a passing relationship with out of work benefits, except pensioners of course.

    That's why there's such a vitriolic hatred of cheats and malingers. The public knows they are taking money from deserving cases.

    Absolutely. So when it comes to fairness, the issue is whether you rework the whole system - to the detriment of many, many honest users - or whether you focus your energies on catching the cheats and malingerers and throwing the book at them.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Red now slagging off Len McLusky - ferrets in a sack .....
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tim said:

    Boris on the news talking about Londons falling crime rate.
    No sign of Socrates theory that immigration has pushed crime up.
    Can't understand why this evidence based research is being ignored, probably PC gone mad.

    Just seen the London news concerning the poor kid who was murdered at Victoria Station. They showed a line up of those involved in the killing, every one of them black.

    It may well be that crime is falling but with news reports like that crime and immigration will always be linked. The question to ask yourself is do you feel safer than ten years ago?


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    antifrank said:

    Perhaps Abu Qatada and Julian Assange could trade places.

    Hmmm....maybe Qatada and Luis Suarez?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Gimme the money and shut up ? No way to treat your only donor.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    These hoodlums in the Victoria station murder case are the worst sort of scum. A premeditated and particularly violent murder. They deserve to die in prison.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @nigel4england

    I would ignore the abuse. tim has previously said he was glad the Jews were cooked in ovens during the event that must not be named.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ooh not just South Shields - its Ukip v Labour on here....
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Luckily we have the Crime Survey of England and Wales (former the "British Crime Survey") which asks people if they have been the victim of particular sorts of crime, and goes from there. Significant falls there also.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    tim said:

    Boris on the news talking about Londons falling crime rate.
    No sign of Socrates theory that immigration has pushed crime up.
    Can't understand why this evidence based research is being ignored, probably PC gone mad.

    Just seen the London news concerning the poor kid who was murdered at Victoria Station. They showed a line up of those involved in the killing, every one of them black.

    It may well be that crime is falling but with news reports like that crime and immigration will always be linked. The question to ask yourself is do you feel safer than ten years ago?


    The great news is that during a time of high immigration violent crime and murders fell in this country. I don't understand why we can't all celebrate this excellent news - but clearly some people will believe want they want to believe, whatever the facts.

  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR

    It's worth remembering that the polls indicate most normal people do not support UKIP.

    I never knew you were an out of touch MP Southam

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Red now slagging off Len McLusky - ferrets in a sack .....


    Yes, Ed putting McCluskey in his place, how damaging.

    Joey Jones ‏@joeyjonessky
    Goodness. Big slapdown to len mccluskey from ed miliband. Describes interview as "reprehensible"
    Surely you must recognise Tim that the mere fact he has to is a problem in itself. Not only is that going to strain (if it does not affect) funding, it also creates a media narrative Labour can't really win - like the Tories on Europe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,705
    edited April 2013
    Interesting stat in today's YouGov - since 2010 GE more people have switched Lab to Con than Con to Lab:

    4% of 2010 GE Con have switched to Lab
    7% of 2010 GE Lab have switched to Con

    And that's in mid term!

    If UKIP take a disproportionate amount of old Con voters in safe seats then Con will outperform UNS.
  • I never imagined this would happen but I have to say that I've pretty much lost my interest in politics - a topic that has fascinated and enthused me since quite an early age.

    I'm not sure why it's gone - but gone it has. Maybe it's because I now have really good things happening in my life (primary relating to my girlfriend who I met through an online dating site last summer) which weren't there before and have made me happier than I've been in a long time. :)

    It's not even as though I can blame the present generation of politicians for killing my interest in politics as my political opinions have faded too. Nowadays I read about a/the big political issue of the day and more often that not find that I have no strong opinion or view on the matter - merely a mental shrug. I don't even feel inclined to bother voting next week though I do still expect my sense of duty will march me to the polling station. ;)

    Perhaps the strangest thing is that none of this feels at all strange - indeed it feels positively liberating to have become so apolitical. I've kept coming here and skim reading the threads the last few weeks and months but it's only really been a zombie presence on my part - just going through the motions of something that I used to do without any longer really knowing why.

    This isn't a flounce though. This site is a wonderful resource with a wealth of interesting people from all parts of the political spectrum. It's a real credit to Mike and the rest of his team. I hope it long continues to be that way. I'll probably still drop by to read from time to time (as old habit die hard and, politics aside, I like the people here) but this is where my regular lurking presence ends.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    sam said:

    sam said:

    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR

    It's worth remembering that the polls indicate most normal people do not support UKIP.

    I never knew you were an out of touch MP Southam

    Nope - just someone who understands that 12% to 20% in the polls does not represent a majority of normal people.

    We all know a lot of normal people on here and the funny thing is that they all have different opinions. I know quite a few normal people who would find it slightly odd that a mainstream political party would put up the owner of a lap-dancing club as a candidate. I kniow a few others who might think it is a bit of a laugh.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MikeL said:

    Interesting stat in today's YouGov - since 2010 GE more people have switched Lab to Con than Con to Lab:

    4% of 2010 GE Con have switched to Lab
    7% of 2010 GE Lab have switched to Con

    I pointed that earlier, but it's an outlier. Very small numbers either way and never any great difference between the two numbers.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Socrates

    I suggest any aspiring Race theorist goes and reads your posts this morning, they really are a classic of the genre.
    How not to put a case when the research has undermined everything you post about.

    The Glasgow facts were a delight weren't they.


    PS.
    The people who count on here, including the ones laughing at you this morning always had my details.

    It is true thoiugh that the BBC article showed the top 5 worst crime areas to be those that Socrates listed, and you changed it to put Glasgow in 3rd or 4th place then accused him of deceit

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    AveryLP - But those conflicting signals from the bond markets are being reflected in conflicting statements from politicians on austerity
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    @nigel4england

    I would ignore the abuse. tim has previously said he was glad the Jews were cooked in ovens during the event that must not be named.

    Well, that has to be among the most revolting things ever posted on here.

    I'm just trying to see whether tim is the only poster that is allowed to get away with posting untrue allegations of racism.

    So you are saying that you know what you posted is untrue? That makes the fact you did it even more unpleasant, I'm afraid.

  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 663
    TIM SOCRATES and NIGEL 4 ENGLAND

    NO MORE PERSONAL ATTACKS PLEASE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    PPP Colorado 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    •Rand Paul (R) 45%
    •Not sure 7%
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 44%
    •Not sure 8%
    •John Hickenlooper (D) 47%
    •Rand Paul (R) 45%
    •Not sure 8%
    •John Hickenlooper (D) 47%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 45%
    •Not sure 8%
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The figures are much lower than this. YouGov, wrongly in my view, nets off the don't knows/won't say so the total against which the shares are worked out is artificially small. The result is that their switching totals are all overstated
    MikeL said:

    Interesting stat in today's YouGov - since 2010 GE more people have switched Lab to Con than Con to Lab:

    4% of 2010 GE Con have switched to Lab
    7% of 2010 GE Lab have switched to Con

    And that's in mid term!

    If UKIP take a disproportionate amount of old Con voters in safe seats then Con will outperform UNS.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633

    I never imagined this would happen but I have to say that I've pretty much lost my interest in politics - a topic that has fascinated and enthused me since quite an early age. .

    Who do you normally support? Is your heart on the left or the right?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    HYUFD said:

    AveryLP - But those conflicting signals from the bond markets are being reflected in conflicting statements from politicians on austerity

    Of course, but the bond investors are far more hard nosed.

    The Eurozone plunging into recession would lead to widespread defaults and haircuts, not something any bond investor wants.

    So the drive for reduced debts and deficits needs abating when the risk of default approaches.

    It is the downside risks in Europe and their potential impact on the global economy which are frightening politicians and investors alike.

    The fact that even bond investors are either running away or calling the dogs off is worrying news in itself.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    sam said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    I suggest any aspiring Race theorist goes and reads your posts this morning, they really are a classic of the genre.
    How not to put a case when the research has undermined everything you post about.

    The Glasgow facts were a delight weren't they.


    PS.
    The people who count on here, including the ones laughing at you this morning always had my details.

    It is true thoiugh that the BBC article showed the top 5 worst crime areas to be those that Socrates listed, and you changed it to put Glasgow in 3rd or 4th place then accused him of deceit

    No, it's not true. The BBC articlenamed Glasgow as the most violent urban area in the UK, with London in second place and Belfast third. Thise London boroughs were top of th elocal authority lists. But you tell me a time when the East End and Sarf London (and Glasgow) were not violent places. It's in their DNA.

  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    sam said:

    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR

    It's worth remembering that the polls indicate most normal people do not support UKIP.

    I never knew you were an out of touch MP Southam

    Nope - just someone who understands that 12% to 20% in the polls does not represent a majority of normal people.

    We all know a lot of normal people on here and the funny thing is that they all have different opinions. I know quite a few normal people who would find it slightly odd that a mainstream political party would put up the owner of a lap-dancing club as a candidate. I kniow a few others who might think it is a bit of a laugh.

    Most working class bloke would think it was great. Most Guardian readers would think it was outrageous.

    No party represents the majority of normal people do they?
  • samsam Posts: 727

    sam said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    I suggest any aspiring Race theorist goes and reads your posts this morning, they really are a classic of the genre.
    How not to put a case when the research has undermined everything you post about.

    The Glasgow facts were a delight weren't they.


    PS.
    The people who count on here, including the ones laughing at you this morning always had my details.

    It is true thoiugh that the BBC article showed the top 5 worst crime areas to be those that Socrates listed, and you changed it to put Glasgow in 3rd or 4th place then accused him of deceit

    No, it's not true. The BBC articlenamed Glasgow as the most violent urban area in the UK, with London in second place and Belfast third. Thise London boroughs were top of th elocal authority lists. But you tell me a time when the East End and Sarf London (and Glasgow) were not violent places. It's in their DNA.

    No you are wrong, sorry. Here is the listr I have copied from the bbc website

    Least peaceful local authorities

    1. Lewisham, London

    2. Lambeth, London

    3. Hackney, London

    4. Newham, London

    5. Tower Hamlets, London

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22275280

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    sam said:

    sam said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    I suggest any aspiring Race theorist goes and reads your posts this morning, they really are a classic of the genre.
    How not to put a case when the research has undermined everything you post about.

    The Glasgow facts were a delight weren't they.


    PS.
    The people who count on here, including the ones laughing at you this morning always had my details.

    It is true thoiugh that the BBC article showed the top 5 worst crime areas to be those that Socrates listed, and you changed it to put Glasgow in 3rd or 4th place then accused him of deceit

    No, it's not true. The BBC articlenamed Glasgow as the most violent urban area in the UK, with London in second place and Belfast third. Thise London boroughs were top of th elocal authority lists. But you tell me a time when the East End and Sarf London (and Glasgow) were not violent places. It's in their DNA.

    No you are wrong, sorry. Here is the listr I have copied from the bbc website

    Least peaceful local authorities

    1. Lewisham, London

    2. Lambeth, London

    3. Hackney, London

    4. Newham, London

    5. Tower Hamlets, London

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22275280

    Yes, Glasgow is not a local authority. These five are. They are all in London. London finishes second to Glasgow as the most violent urban area.

    Read the whole article.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    ATTENTION Tim and Socrates

    Please can we end these regular spats. It's getting tedious.

    Thank you
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    sam said:

    sam said:

    sam said:

    If the Farage going to a lap dancing club smear is tried, only Guardian readers will be bothered by it and many thinking about whether to vote UKIP will probably see it as a positive

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/24/farage-lap-dancing-anti-women

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22280755

    NORMAL PEOPLE DONT LIKE PC LOONY LEFTY BEHAVIOUR

    It's worth remembering that the polls indicate most normal people do not support UKIP.

    I never knew you were an out of touch MP Southam

    Nope - just someone who understands that 12% to 20% in the polls does not represent a majority of normal people.

    We all know a lot of normal people on here and the funny thing is that they all have different opinions. I know quite a few normal people who would find it slightly odd that a mainstream political party would put up the owner of a lap-dancing club as a candidate. I kniow a few others who might think it is a bit of a laugh.

    Most working class bloke would think it was great. Most Guardian readers would think it was outrageous.

    No party represents the majority of normal people do they?

    Most working class blokes you know, maybe. Indeed, no party does represent all normal people. So to generalise on what normal people think is a bit pointless.

  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    And it comes straight from the Labour party rulebook.
This discussion has been closed.