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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 7th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 7th 2014
Swinton South on Salford (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour overall majority of 44)
Result of ward in last electoral cycle:
2010: Lab 1,671, Lib Dem 1,358, Con 1,055, Ind 837
2011: Lab 1,356, Con 553, Green 481, Lib Dem 277, UKIP 194
2012:
0
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OMG Sunderland have scored at the end of the first half. Don't give much for Moyes' chances
Anyone know if the ITV poll tonight will have a VI figure ?
Not sure why the draw is shorter than a United win now. End to End stuff and two goals by 55 minutes is strongly suggestive of more to come.
Mr. Jessop, there seem to have been a few such incidents in a relatively brief period of time.
Rest assured, what you did doesn't just show you for what you are as it throws a very stark light on this place. That it has unbelievably happened twice now on PB is simply staggering.
"why is the public getting it wrong when they say they don't like immigration?"
Regardless of your views on immigration it's pretty shocking from the BBC.
A man can dream, can't he?
The one who the PB tories still can't help mentioning almost every day.
A few such incidents in a relatively brief period of time? Well, I think we all know what's to blame here - Global Warming. Obvious, innit. I mean, stands to reason. First snow in Egypt in 112 years, the USA frozen solid, storms and helicopter crashes in the UK, got to be down to man-made global warming and us not shutting down our coal fired power stations quick enough. 'Course that was down to Miliband and his Climate Change Act with its pathetically unambitious targets. If he had written in " By 2012 no fossil fuels to be used in the UK for generation of electricity" Cameron and everyone would have voted for it just the same and we would be in a very different place today. A colder, darker place to be sure but reading hand-written books by tallow candles wouldn't be that much of a hardship and at least we wouldn't have had all this wind and rain and the USA wouldn't be freezing its collective nuts off.
Will nobody think of the Polar Bears?
To be replaced by the mighty Leicester City!
E I E I E I O up the football league we go.
Well a boy can dream :-)
Entertainingly, tim still appears to be sulking.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/files/2012/04/husky-1_1895614b.jpg
*chortle*
CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-01-07/confidence-in-uk-economy-highest-since-2010/
The public expects (by a narrow margin) the economy to get better this year but (by a clear margin) for them not to benefit personally. How accurate they are will determine the next election.
I am pleased to hear it, Mr. B. I expect your doggie is enjoying the cooler climes though.
But if there are going to be a series of posts on what might happen in individual English cities when a few folk turn out to vote for councillors, it's time for me to go back to lurking!
A better use of my time to chat to voters, not you chaps and chapesses.
Nytol.
What do you make of the 5/6 on Labour over 11.5 seats?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/5/Record_Low_Temperature_-_10_January_1982.pdf
I don't mind them much any more than the minutia of polling changes from day to day on uk polling report for example, but it's self evidently the big trends over time and the bigger election tests that matter the most.
Be sorry to see you go oldnat but as you say there are bigger outlets which potential voters look to, particularly for scottish political events and matters.
Could a moderator correct this 'glitch' please.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
LOL indeed.
This happens occasionally, and is out of our control when Vanilla do an archival backup or server upgrade.
In the past, this unavailability has lasted anywhere from two minutes to twelve hours.
I can just about remember the snow - I was 6 years old.
TimB Sounds like a trip to Miami in the Spring could be in order!
"...the research overall points to the minimum wage reducing employment as conventional economic theory predicts. In other words, the minimum wage undermines employment for the least productive whilst raising wages for others."
http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/unemployment-and-the-minimum-wage
Lab 661 Con 298 UKIP 215 Green 196 Eng Dem 54 TUSC 43
I was only the other day thinking that the government need to do something that people will notice, as increases in income tax allowances (which have been big) and good GPD figures do not connect with the public consciousness, and a big increase in the minimum wage was what I thought might work in a way that nothing else will.
£7.00? Is that practical, I honestly have no idea of what that would cost employers overall, or the effects it would have, but it's a nice target and a significant increase.
And why not commit to significant increases in the next parliament too? We end up topping up wages via benefits, we should make employers carry more of that weight.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/07/benefits-scheme-universal-credit-delays
IDS is the man to sort it out!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10557460/Beware-of-Alex-bearing-gifts-to-win-votes.html
Non-EU net migration (1997-2011: 3.7m) + (2012: 157,000)
EU net migration (1997-2011: 800,000) + (2012: 73,000)
British net migration (1997-2011: -1m) + (2012: -63,000)
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org.uk/pdfs/BP12_3.pdf
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org.uk/latest-immigration-statistics
0 fahrenheit = -18 centigrade, so minus 21 is about -5 fahrenheit.
Living for 4 years north of Toronto I have been in much colder weather, for example the second christmas we were there, it was so cold the power lines became brittle and snapped in the wind, and all the Catholics attending midnight mass were trapped as the church doors froze shut. But there you expect it and build for it. We just huddled with blankets and sleeping bags until the power came back.
Down here walls are less than 6 inches thick and ceilings are 9 feet to cope with the heat. Houses are primarily built of wood rather than the brick of the north east. My thermostat keeps downstairs at 62 overnight, and goes to 68 at 6am. It took until 2.30pm to get to 68. By the end of the week we'll be back in the 60s.
*chortle*
That means there is a real opportunity to address low pay and subsidised wages by aggressive increases in the minimum wage. If employment stops growing then we would need to scale back a bit but at the moment £7.00 seems doable to me.
Clearly the budgetary implications need thought through as some public sector workers will benefit but the savings in in work benefits should offset that to some degree. I was disappointed this was not in the Autumn statement. I very much hope it forms the centre piece of the budget.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100253258/this-man-was-a-sadomasochist-drug-addict-fearless-pilot-and-politician-only-in-italy/
My American cousin defends the ostensibly unwieldy Fahrenheit system on the basis that if the temperature is less than zero or more than 100 you know not to venture outdoors.
Even Hitler ruled Fiume for a longer period than D'Annunzio
(that's September 1943 to May '45, versus Sept 1919 to Dec 1920)
With the MW being increased to far to fast, bang goes that social mobility as those at the bottom will never get their first job.
I very much hope he returns to active posting.
In any case, Nick Robinson isn't talking about what Enoch Powell thought, but what people now think. And people now significantly over-estimate the proportion of the country who are immigrants.
Tho' he probably had less fun.
Yes I know that people over estimate the current number, but just thought I would point out that Powell did predict 12.5%... At the time people accused him of exaggerating, now that it has happened people say "it's only 12.5%"