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Alex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 29 in General
imageAlex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women – politicalbetting.com

The latest YouGov Scotland poll that was published before the weekend gives a good indication of the challenge facing the ex-SNP leader and former Scottish First Minister as he attempts to make a comeback with his new Alba party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    Test
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,280
    One day international
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    20-20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Looks like the timetable will be strictly kept to then...

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1376561589176918016
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    His ratings really are terrible, but I suppose he only needs the support of a small percentage to potentially hold the balance of power.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,276

    Looks like the timetable will be strictly kept to then...

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1376561589176918016

    April 12th remains the big unknown for the Govt. And that's a fortnight away. By the time that's past and any effects - or complete lack of (ahem) - are seen, we'll all be basically reopened anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    edited March 29
    Have we noted this research? It's very encouraging confirmation of the Israeli and UK real-world experience. Note in particular that they were getting 80% effectiveness even after just one dose, and that the vaccines were effective against asymptomatic infection:

    https://twitter.com/PlanetofFinks/status/1376559768748232711

    Full details here:
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,781

    Looks like the timetable will be strictly kept to then...

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1376561589176918016

    April 12th remains the big unknown for the Govt. And that's a fortnight away. By the time that's past and any effects - or complete lack of (ahem) - are seen, we'll all be basically reopened anyway.
    apart from, pubs, restaurants and being allowed a social life in your own home.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.
  • Salmond also had a women's problem during the indyref where women were much more sceptical about independence than men.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398

    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    Indeed we have a time line, there is light at the end of the tunnel , lets not rush and smash into the train coming in the other direction
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,176
    tlg86 said:

    His ratings really are terrible, but I suppose he only needs the support of a small percentage to potentially hold the balance of power.

    If he gets 10% on the list (two-thirds of those who give him a positive rating) then that will be enough to give him the balance of power - unless the SNP manage to win a majority in the constituencies alone, or they somehow tumble to losing at least a dozen constituency seats.

    I'd expect most of those favourable to him would be independence supporters, and willing to vote for him for the super majority.
  • The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    Especially if the EU play silly beggars on vaccine blockades.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    I am struggling to see how Alba make a notable enough breakthrough in the polling to have much of an impact on anyone.

    Salmond looks like someone’s dead uncle, not the leader of a new independence movement.

    I picking them to get 4%, taking half their support from the SNP, and 1% each from the Greens and the Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    maaarsh said:

    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    That's just cant, not an argument. Prudent is a nonsense word in this context. Spending £50,000 to insure a house worth £25k is not prudent, it's bloody stupid. There is a cost here as well as a benefit and they have to be balanced.
    And the gamble is spend £50k now to avoid that £25k house blowing up taking 15 others with it at the same time.

    We really do need to check what the impact of R is at every stage as we open up which means allowing time for the impact to be assessed.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 66


    April 12th remains the big unknown for the Govt. And that's a fortnight away. By the time that's past and any effects - or complete lack of (ahem) - are seen, we'll all be basically reopened anyway.

    It will still be a criminal offence for me to have my parents in my home. I will not be permitted to train indoors in martial arts classes (niche I realise, but makes the point), if I want to go out for a drink with friends I will be limited to five other people and banned from doing it indoors.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    maaarsh said:

    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    That's just cant, not an argument. Prudent is a nonsense word in this context. Spending £50,000 to insure a house worth £25k is not prudent, it's bloody stupid. There is a cost here as well as a benefit and they have to be balanced.
    Prudent as in,
    - Highly likely to be achievable, even given contingencies
    &
    - Widely understood by the public to allow for personal and business planning etc.

    I agree that the costs are horrendous, believe me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 800

    tlg86 said:

    His ratings really are terrible, but I suppose he only needs the support of a small percentage to potentially hold the balance of power.

    If he gets 10% on the list (two-thirds of those who give him a positive rating) then that will be enough to give him the balance of power - unless the SNP manage to win a majority in the constituencies alone, or they somehow tumble to losing at least a dozen constituency seats.

    I'd expect most of those favourable to him would be independence supporters, and willing to vote for him for the super majority.
    10% is, apparently, the figure Alba need to do more good than harm to the pro-Independence cause. I doubt they will do that well. They could do harm to the Greens who are certainly not happy with this development.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    That's just cant, not an argument. Prudent is a nonsense word in this context. Spending £50,000 to insure a house worth £25k is not prudent, it's bloody stupid. There is a cost here as well as a benefit and they have to be balanced.
    And the gamble is spend £50k now to avoid that £25k house blowing up taking 15 others with it at the same time.

    We really do need to check what the impact of R is at every stage as we open up which means allowing time for the impact to be assessed.
    No we don't, not when the vulnerable are vaccinated and the wave is over.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    edited March 29
    Salmond's strategy seems - unfortunately for the Unionist side - to be more and more inspired. He's going to target the Unwoke Indies, who want to leave the UK but can't stand Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's woke identitarianism, the Hate Crime Bill, and so on. And if he can get more MSPs on the pro-independence side while simultaneously making himself its kingmaker, well then, his cup runneth over...
  • The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 800

    I am struggling to see how Alba make a notable enough breakthrough in the polling to have much of an impact on anyone.

    Salmond looks like someone’s dead uncle, not the leader of a new independence movement.

    I picking them to get 4%, taking half their support from the SNP, and 1% each from the Greens and the Tories.

    I can assure you that Salmond won't be taking any votes from the Tories!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,097

    The current timeline is prudent, for now.
    Let’s just stick to it.

    I think both are true.

    The Government isn't going to change 12 April 2021, not now, for stage 2.

    But, it has allowed more than a month, to 17 May 2021, for stage 3.

    We can in effect wait until 12 April 2021, and then think about that forward. It is easy to imagine, let's say, a week earlier - good news for the country hurrah hurrah - while keeping the overall timescale and allowing for a u-urn if cases rise based from 13 April.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,046
    There were Zero Covid Deaths today in London. The pandemic is over here really. But not globally. Not by a long chalk.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Nope on July 4th 2020 the hospital admission rate (7 day average) was 217
    Today it's 334 - which was the figure of June 22nd

    Basically we are 2 weeks away from the position at the start of July 2020.

    Which remarkably enough matches the rough dates from last July.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732

    Salmond's strategy seems - unfortunately for the Unionist side - to be more and more inspired. He's going to target the Unwoke Indies, who want to leave the UK but can't stand Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's woke identitarianism, the Hate Crime Bill, and so on. And if he can get more MSPs on the pro-independence side while making himself its kingmaker, well then, his cup runneth over...

    Its also quite clever as the Greens weren't associated with Indy even if they were technically pro-Indy. So when the SNP failed to get a majority it was portrayed as an Indy failure, not an Indy majority.

    Alba like SNP are going to be 100% perceived as pro-Indy. If they replace the Greens let alone take list seats from unionists, that all but guarantees not just an Indy majority in Holyrood, but a perceived Indy majority.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    eek said:

    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
    The work will be done at Barnard Castle, won't it.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,160
    edited March 29
    Scott_xP said:
    They should have a race. Fastest indy march gets the FM slot.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    eek said:

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Nope on July 4th 2020 the hospital admission rate (7 day average) was 217
    Today it's 334 - which was the figure of June 22nd

    Basically we are 2 weeks away from the position at the start of July 2020.

    Which remarkably enough matches the rough dates from last July.
    But even if we announced now (as I would advocate) that we go back to July 2020 regulations then that would realistically happen on April 12, you always need to give notice before a reopening its not a case of turning the key next day.

    So yes we should be announcing today that we are escalating the unlocking to July 2020 style regulations (essentially step 3 due in May) is to be brought forward to step 2 in April.
  • Can someone start a crowd funder for Larry the Cat?

    https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1376552352627429380
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,174

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? It originates in Kent. It’s like saying Liverpool FC play in Greater Manchester. Geographically illiterate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,111

    eek said:

    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
    The work will be done at Barnard Castle, won't it.
    I can't see how it would be otherwise.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited March 29

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? It originates in Kent. It’s like saying Liverpool FC play in Greater Manchester. Geographically illiterate.
    Because it was a term used on here and it has stuck.

    Also I adore alliteration.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Neither were vaccines.

    Vaccinating the vulnerable has done more than Cockney Covid did.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,047
    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '
  • The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Neither were vaccines.

    Vaccinating the vulnerable has done more than Cockney Covid did.
    Let us have a look at the number of Covid-19 deaths from say January onwards and then laugh at your comment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568

    I am struggling to see how Alba make a notable enough breakthrough in the polling to have much of an impact on anyone.

    Salmond looks like someone’s dead uncle, not the leader of a new independence movement.

    I picking them to get 4%, taking half their support from the SNP, and 1% each from the Greens and the Tories.

    I can assure you that Salmond won't be taking any votes from the Tories!
    I am thinking that maybe 1% of the population are a bit indy, but alienated enough by SNP wokery to have voted Tory.

    There seems to have been one or two on here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,337
    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    I thought in France the teacher didn't even do what was he was accused of doing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,777

    eek said:

    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
    The work will be done at Barnard Castle, won't it.
    And people still haven't twigged why Cummins was going to Barnard Castle.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,337
    Here comes the BBC with isn't the UK shit at testing...

    Secret filming exposes contamination risk at test results lab

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56556806
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790

    Can someone start a crowd funder for Larry the Cat?

    https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1376552352627429380

    Does anyone care what this woman says? I guess she is too stupid to realise that she is blackening her own character by saying such stuff.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,248
    edited March 29

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Yup. Dependent on assumptions on transmission and the Cockney Covid R0 and the proportion of people with acquired immunity, we're somewhere 85% and 120% as "spreadable" today as we were at last July.

    By the 12th of April, we'll be somewhere between 80% and 105%
    By the 17th of May, somewhere between 70% and 90%
    By the 21st of June, somewhere between 40% and 60% (with an R value without restrictions somewhere between 1.0 and 1.6)
    And within a fortnight of the second dose given to all adults, somewhere between 30% and 35% and an R of 0.8 to 1.0.

    Very woolly and with loads of assumptions. And the effects on hospitalisations, etc, also need to be taken into account. As of today, we've bought 1 more doubling in ICUs and 2 more doublings in wider hospitals as we had against case numbers before vaccinations (which could happen pretty quickly with high values of R)

    By the 12th of April, we'll have not quite 2 doublings in ICUs and ~3 doublings in hospitalisations against case numbers.
    By the 17th of May, more than 2 doublings in ICUs and ~4 doublings in wider hospitalisations
    By the 21st of June, around 3 doublings in ICU and 5+ doublings in wider hospitalisations against case numbers
    Sometime after that, assuming that doubled-up vaccinations are as good as in Israel, we ain't seeing an overload in hospitals being feasible at all.

    Again, all really woolly, but broadly indicative.

    It ain't yet over, anymore than it was all over last summer. We're in a far better place, but if we rush things with Cockney Covid/Kentish Kovid around, we can end up going too far too fast.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,047

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    I thought in France the teacher didn't even do what was he was accused of doing?
    I can't remember the deets, only the horror

    The teacher's mother is ALSO in hiding. This is an entire family living in terror, their lives ruined, because of a cowardly school with spineless authorities - but also because we are a cowardly country and we have yielded to a bullying minority.

    The Mail article ably depicts our shame and failure.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    edited March 29
    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the teacher seems to have been an idiot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    edited March 29
    Another case for @Cyclefree

    Credit Suisse and Nomura warn of hit after Archegos-linked sell-off
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/29/credit-suisse-nomura-archegos-sell-off-hedge-fund

    Why do banks feel it safe to do business in the billions with ex cons ?
    https://www.finews.asia/people/34136-who-is-bill-hwang
    ...in 2001, Hwang established the former Tiger Asia Management which was established following his time as a "tiger cub" – a term to describe the dozen of hedge funds with roots that trace back to renowned hedge fund manager Julian Robertson and the 42-year old Tiger Management.

    Tiger Asia grew to be a multi-billion dollar hedge fund and one of the largest investors in Asian financial markets but in 2012, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Hwang and Tiger Asia with insider trading and manipulation of Chinese stocks. Hwang pleaded guilty, agreed to criminal and civil settlements of over $60 million and later closed the fund.

    In 2013, Hwang converted the firm into a family office – Archegos Capital Management – which has reportedly grown to become larger than even many well-known hedge funds...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,337
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    I thought in France the teacher didn't even do what was he was accused of doing?
    I can't remember the deets, only the horror

    The teacher's mother is ALSO in hiding. This is an entire family living in terror, their lives ruined, because of a cowardly school with spineless authorities - but also because we are a cowardly country and we have yielded to a bullying minority.

    The Mail article ably depicts our shame and failure.
    BBC seem strangely uninterested......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,174
    Excellent questions from the irrepressible Beth Rigby.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    eek said:

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Nope on July 4th 2020 the hospital admission rate (7 day average) was 217
    Today it's 334 - which was the figure of June 22nd

    Basically we are 2 weeks away from the position at the start of July 2020.

    Which remarkably enough matches the rough dates from last July.
    But even if we announced now (as I would advocate) that we go back to July 2020 regulations then that would realistically happen on April 12, you always need to give notice before a reopening its not a case of turning the key next day.

    So yes we should be announcing today that we are escalating the unlocking to July 2020 style regulations (essentially step 3 due in May) is to be brought forward to step 2 in April.
    Not quite - because you haven't noticed the large issue with numbers

    Over half the population have been vaccinated (at least once) and that population made up over 70% of admissions last year.

    So who are the people currently being admitted to hospital as the demographics have to be different to last year.
  • Excellent questions from the irrepressible Beth Rigby.

    Rule breaking Rigby you mean?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Given the potential unreliability of the EU as an exporter...hardly a surprise.....no wonder Novavax has been slow to sign a contract with them - they'd have probably demanded those doses too!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,047

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the
    teacher seems to have been an idiot.
    Read the bloody article

    "However, his father fumed: 'The school has thrown my son under a bus. The lesson that he delivered in which the picture of the Prophet Muhammad was shown was part of the curriculum, it had been approved by the school. Other teachers have done exactly the same thing.

    "'So why is my son being victimised like this? The school should have come out fighting for him and made it clear to the protestors that if offence was caused, then it was not my son's fault. It was the school's policy to show this picture, it wasn't an individual decision made by him.'"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,174

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Why do you persist in calling it Cockney Covid? It originates in Kent. It’s like saying Liverpool FC play in Greater Manchester. Geographically illiterate.
    Because it was a term used on here and it has stuck.

    Also I adore alliteration.
    It’s moronic.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204

    Excellent questions from the irrepressible Beth Rigby.

    Oh God, what's she saying now?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568

    eek said:

    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
    The work will be done at Barnard Castle, won't it.
    And people still haven't twigged why Cummins was going to Barnard Castle.....
    Are you on retainer to the man?

    There’s probably a clause in the contract that says that in the event of his termination, you are also free of responsibilities to propagandise on his behalf.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    LOLs - 'like old British Rail sandwiches'
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, that vaccine bounce looks really over, doesn't it? :wink:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Neither were vaccines.

    Vaccinating the vulnerable has done more than Cockney Covid did.
    Let us have a look at the number of Covid-19 deaths from say January onwards and then laugh at your comment.
    Let us look at the low number of Covid-19 active vaccines from January and then laugh at your comment.

    The vaccine is injected now, it wasn't in January.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687

    Andy_JS said:
    Wow, that vaccine bounce looks really over, doesn't it? :wink:
    Yes looks like LAB is heading for the overall majority!

    :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 6,568
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the
    teacher seems to have been an idiot.
    Read the bloody article

    "However, his father fumed: 'The school has thrown my son under a bus. The lesson that he delivered in which the picture of the Prophet Muhammad was shown was part of the curriculum, it had been approved by the school. Other teachers have done exactly the same thing.

    "'So why is my son being victimised like this? The school should have come out fighting for him and made it clear to the protestors that if offence was caused, then it was not my son's fault. It was the school's policy to show this picture, it wasn't an individual decision made by him.'"
    Ah. I withdraw.

    In which case, the man and family need the full support of the state; the school should immediately be placed in special measures; and the local “protesters” arrested for making death threats.

    But I am not sure this is about “freedom of speech” as much as standing against hate.
  • The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Except Cockney Covid wasn't a thing last July.

    Look June 21st will soon be here.
    Neither were vaccines.

    Vaccinating the vulnerable has done more than Cockney Covid did.
    Let us have a look at the number of Covid-19 deaths from say January onwards and then laugh at your comment.
    Let us look at the low number of Covid-19 active vaccines from January and then laugh at your comment.

    The vaccine is injected now, it wasn't in January.
    The UK vaccine rollout began at the start of December.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Andy_JS said:
    Same numbers for Conservatives and Labour as the Deltapoll

    Labour seem becalmed
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK R

    from cases

    image
    image

    from hospitalisations

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100

    eek said:

    Hardly surprising given that GSK have capacity.
    The work will be done at Barnard Castle, won't it.
    And people still haven't twigged why Cummins was going to Barnard Castle.....
    Yeh right. If he was there to see GSK why did he have to make up a load of bollx about eye tests?

    People were even speculating he was there to see them at the time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Andy_JS said:
    Hilarious given the header from last Saturday.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    eek said:

    eek said:

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Nope on July 4th 2020 the hospital admission rate (7 day average) was 217
    Today it's 334 - which was the figure of June 22nd

    Basically we are 2 weeks away from the position at the start of July 2020.

    Which remarkably enough matches the rough dates from last July.
    But even if we announced now (as I would advocate) that we go back to July 2020 regulations then that would realistically happen on April 12, you always need to give notice before a reopening its not a case of turning the key next day.

    So yes we should be announcing today that we are escalating the unlocking to July 2020 style regulations (essentially step 3 due in May) is to be brought forward to step 2 in April.
    Not quite - because you haven't noticed the large issue with numbers

    Over half the population have been vaccinated (at least once) and that population made up over 70% of admissions last year.

    So who are the people currently being admitted to hospital as the demographics have to be different to last year.
    Indeed they are, but the point is the hospitalisation numbers are falling fast.

    Even if we announced an advance to Stage 3 on 12 April, then by 12 April there would be fewer people hospitalised by 12 April than there were 4 July last year.

    Vaccine effect is only going in one direction too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Age related data

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the teacher seems to have been an idiot.
    If the boot had been on the other foot, just imagine the level of fury from the Mail!

    Two wrongs, and all that, of course!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,047

    Eldest son has just phoned; will we go to his, over in Kent, for lunch on Saturday. Heavily into barbecuing so it'll be outside. Forecast looks OK, if not as warm as today.

    First time we've seen his family for best part of 6 months!

    My aged father, who feels the cold badly, today went outside to have his morning coffee. He said it was the first time he had been outside, the first time he had felt proper sun and fresh air on his face, since last Autumn.

    !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    The US is demonstrating why premature reopening is a bad idea.
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1376572551812554760
  • Eldest son has just phoned; will we go to his, over in Kent, for lunch on Saturday. Heavily into barbecuing so it'll be outside. Forecast looks OK, if not as warm as today.

    First time we've seen his family for best part of 6 months!

    Hurrah.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The wave is over, the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

    There are no meaningful deaths.

    We should be at least as relaxed on regulations and law as we were in July last year.

    Nope on July 4th 2020 the hospital admission rate (7 day average) was 217
    Today it's 334 - which was the figure of June 22nd

    Basically we are 2 weeks away from the position at the start of July 2020.

    Which remarkably enough matches the rough dates from last July.
    But even if we announced now (as I would advocate) that we go back to July 2020 regulations then that would realistically happen on April 12, you always need to give notice before a reopening its not a case of turning the key next day.

    So yes we should be announcing today that we are escalating the unlocking to July 2020 style regulations (essentially step 3 due in May) is to be brought forward to step 2 in April.
    Not quite - because you haven't noticed the large issue with numbers

    Over half the population have been vaccinated (at least once) and that population made up over 70% of admissions last year.

    So who are the people currently being admitted to hospital as the demographics have to be different to last year.
    Indeed they are, but the point is the hospitalisation numbers are falling fast.

    Even if we announced an advance to Stage 3 on 12 April, then by 12 April there would be fewer people hospitalised by 12 April than there were 4 July last year.

    Vaccine effect is only going in one direction too.
    They aren't falling any faster than they were at this same point prior to July's opening up last year
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Age related data, scaled to 100K per population group

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  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Hilarious given the header from last Saturday.
    Yes, since the header claiming “”The vaccine bounce seems to be almost over” there have been two polls, both showing the Tory lead up two points to eight (44/36)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the teacher seems to have been an idiot.
    Or perhaps not, as news reports suggest that the cartoons were part of curriculum materials used the previous year in the same school.

    Whichever story is true, death threats (or indeed demands for the teacher to be sacked) are simply unacceptable.

    It's perfectly acceptable for parents to complain - and there is a mechanism for dealing with that - but mass protests aren't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,047

    The US is demonstrating why premature reopening is a bad idea.
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1376572551812554760

    She almost starts blubbing here

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1376557932939206659?s=20

    What's the reason, tho? America seems to be plateauing, if anything, rather than riding a new wave...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK vaccinations

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    tlg86 said:

    His ratings really are terrible, but I suppose he only needs the support of a small percentage to potentially hold the balance of power.

    seem to be lots of people saying they have joined the party and shedloads are women. Many women are upset at SNP with Hate bill and GRA plans. They signed up thousands in first day, I think you will find that ALBA is fairly popular. Especially now the two other main independence parties have folded and thrown in their lot with ALBA.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    That Daily Mail teacher story is appalling

    This is the teacher's father talking:

    'Look what happened to the teacher in France who was killed for doing the same thing. Eventually they will get my son and he knows this. His whole world has been turned upside down. He's devastated and crushed. '

    Does anyone know why he was stupid enough to present the cartoons?

    I would not, for example, be taking St Aloysius Girls Year 10 to see “Piss Christ” at the local art gallery.

    Of course one deplores the insane local “community”, and one feels immense pity he may now need to live anonymously, but the
    teacher seems to have been an idiot.
    Read the bloody article

    "However, his father fumed: 'The school has thrown my son under a bus. The lesson that he delivered in which the picture of the Prophet Muhammad was shown was part of the curriculum, it had been approved by the school. Other teachers have done exactly the same thing.

    "'So why is my son being victimised like this? The school should have come out fighting for him and made it clear to the protestors that if offence was caused, then it was not my son's fault. It was the school's policy to show this picture, it wasn't an individual decision made by him.'"
    Ah. I withdraw.

    In which case, the man and family need the full support of the state; the school should immediately be placed in special measures; and the local “protesters” arrested for making death threats.

    But I am not sure this is about “freedom of speech” as much as standing against hate.
    It is definitely about freedom of speech. What amounts to is

    "You have the freedom to say x because of freedom of speech, however don't actually ever say x because you might offend people"

    This is a bit like the queens ability to block legislation. In theory she has it the moment she tries to use it then it will be removed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220

    Eldest son has just phoned; will we go to his, over in Kent, for lunch on Saturday. Heavily into barbecuing so it'll be outside. Forecast looks OK, if not as warm as today.

    First time we've seen his family for best part of 6 months!

    Hope you get nice weather for it OKC, will be great day for you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited March 29

    Salmond's strategy seems - unfortunately for the Unionist side - to be more and more inspired. He's going to target the Unwoke Indies, who want to leave the UK but can't stand Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's woke identitarianism, the Hate Crime Bill, and so on. And if he can get more MSPs on the pro-independence side while simultaneously making himself its kingmaker, well then, his cup runneth over...

    Those voters will still be SNP, just disillusioned ones, so it will make no difference to the Unionist vote.

    However, if Alba does not get a high list voteshare it will not only not win any MSPs but probably cost the SNP their majority through the loss of Borders SNP list MSPs and possibly even an SNP and Green majority if Unionist MSPs get elected elsewhere in Scotland thanks to the split in the Nationalist vote.

    There was previously near zero chance of a Unionist majority pre Alba, thanks to Alba a Holyrood Unionist majority is now an outside chance. That would mean Boris does not even need to say he will refuse a legal indyref2, there will not be one automatically
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