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It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    You got a seat extrapolation for that?
    If anyone would, it would be you :wink:
    Lab: 24 (-5)
    Con: 19 (+8)
    PC: 14 (+3)
    Abolish: 2 (+2)
    LD: 1 (-)

    PC gain:
    Blaenau Gwent
    Cardiff West
    Llanelli

    Con gain:
    Cardiff North
    Vo Glamorgan
    Gower
    Clwyd
    Wexham

    There you go, did it to annoy my PC supporting mate.

    This is an existential crisis for Labour. In 2001 Wales + Scotland + the North delivered net 197 seats for Labour over the Conservatives (who embarrassingly only got 21 seats in those regions).

    In 2019? The figures are net 24 and 88 respectively.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    Labour losses in Wales are pretty much baked in, as the Great Drakeford is not as popular as Carwyn at the height of his powers. Carwyn did really well in both 2011 and 2016 -- some of this will unwind.

    If Labour can get away with -4, they will have done well.

    If the Tories are doing as well as this, then it is the end of the road for the LibDems, they will lose Brecon & Radnorshire, their only seat. The rodents are exterminated.

    I have ZERO sympathy, I have repeatedly been remonstrated on pb.com by LibDems based in Tallinn, or Richmond, or Bedford, or the Isle of Wight as to how Wales should be grateful to the LibDems. The LibDems are getting their just desserts for repeatedly parachuting pompous & distant Londoners -- who know nothing about Wales -- into Welsh seats.

    Lembit Opik is hard to forgive.

    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    All these "never happened", "rarely happened" or "not since 1970" remarks ... xkcd applies: https://xkcd.com/1122/

    There simply aren't enough elections often enough to form hard and fast rules. What's happened in the past is history, but no rule for the future.

    Obviously we can't form hard and fast rules, but we can and should form forecasts of how likely different outcomes are - and precedents can help. Clearly a government with a majority of 100 is more likely to hold it than one with a majority of 10, all else being equal. Likewise with mid-term polling. Obviously being ahead a couple of years before an election doesn't mean you'll win it - but you are more likely to than if you are 10 points behind.
    Being the incumbent, ahead in the polls, and with a PM vastly more charismatic than the LotO is almost as strong a position as you could hope for

    I hadn’t even thought about it, but 7/4 seems humongous, good spot Quincel
    I think Cons largest party is better value. I'm on that at 1.8 for a decent amount.
    I guess the way I could see Con maj being better value is that if the Cons are going to lose an 80 seat majority, it could be down to something so bad that they aren’t the largest party either?

    8th May 2020 I put £25 on Con most seats at 1.79 - 100k deaths later and Brexit apparently going terribly and they’re 1.67. What would have to happen for Labour to win?!
    For Cons not to be the largest party then have to lose in England to Labour.

    That requires something monumental. Now, is it possible something monumental happens?

    Yes.

    But the odds are 1.8 FFS.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Chameleon said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    You got a seat extrapolation for that?
    If anyone would, it would be you :wink:
    Lab: 24 (-5)
    Con: 19 (+8)
    PC: 14 (+3)
    Abolish: 2 (+2)
    LD: 1 (-)

    PC gain:
    Blaenau Gwent
    Cardiff West
    Llanelli

    Con gain:
    Cardiff North
    Vo Glamorgan
    Gower
    Clwyd
    Wexham

    There you go, did it to annoy my PC supporting mate.

    This is an existential crisis for Labour. In 2001 Wales + Scotland + the North delivered net 197 seats for Labour over the Conservatives (who embarrassingly only got 21 seats in those regions).

    In 2019? The figures are net 24 and 88 respectively.
    You are predicting the Great Drakeford will lose his seat in Cardiff West ....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    And of course the world's microchip fabs are now concentrated there....
    I just did a quick “China overtakes” google

    China has just become the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, overtaking America

    China has just become the biggest trading partner of the EU, overtaking America

    China is overtaking America in AI, supercomputers, patent applications, and is now the biggest box office market in the world (overtaking America)

    It’s happening right now. China is probably more powerful than America, already. Because trade is power

    It’s done. Say hello to the new boss, he’s not like the old boss


    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/china-overtakes-us-as-europes-main-trade-partner.html

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-overtakes-u-s-as-worlds-leading-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-11611511200

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/03/07/google-billionaire-eric-schmidt-warns-of-national-emergency-if-china-overtakes-us-in-ai-tech/



    https://news.sky.com/story/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-biggest-movie-box-office-in-2020-12108349
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    All these "never happened", "rarely happened" or "not since 1970" remarks ... xkcd applies: https://xkcd.com/1122/

    There simply aren't enough elections often enough to form hard and fast rules. What's happened in the past is history, but no rule for the future.

    Obviously we can't form hard and fast rules, but we can and should form forecasts of how likely different outcomes are - and precedents can help. Clearly a government with a majority of 100 is more likely to hold it than one with a majority of 10, all else being equal. Likewise with mid-term polling. Obviously being ahead a couple of years before an election doesn't mean you'll win it - but you are more likely to than if you are 10 points behind.
    Being the incumbent, ahead in the polls, and with a PM vastly more charismatic than the LotO is almost as strong a position as you could hope for

    I hadn’t even thought about it, but 7/4 seems humongous, good spot Quincel
    I think Cons largest party is better value. I'm on that at 1.8 for a decent amount.
    I guess the way I could see Con maj being better value is that if the Cons are going to lose an 80 seat majority, it could be down to something so bad that they aren’t the largest party either?

    8th May 2020 I put £25 on Con most seats at 1.79 - 100k deaths later and Brexit apparently going terribly and they’re 1.67. What would have to happen for Labour to win?!
    For Cons not to be the largest party then have to lose in England to Labour.

    That requires something monumental. Now, is it possible something monumental happens?

    Yes.

    But the odds are 1.8 FFS.
    I’m not saying it’s not a good bet, I have backed it. Just that perhaps Con maj 7/4 is better
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    Chameleon said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    You got a seat extrapolation for that?
    If anyone would, it would be you :wink:
    Lab: 24 (-5)
    Con: 19 (+8)
    PC: 14 (+3)
    Abolish: 2 (+2)
    LD: 1 (-)

    PC gain:
    Blaenau Gwent
    Cardiff West
    Llanelli

    Con gain:
    Cardiff North
    Vo Glamorgan
    Gower
    Clwyd
    Wexham

    There you go, did it to annoy my PC supporting mate.

    This is an existential crisis for Labour. In 2001 Wales + Scotland + the North delivered net 197 seats for Labour over the Conservatives (who embarrassingly only got 21 seats in those regions).

    In 2019? The figures are net 24 and 88 respectively.
    You are predicting the Great Drakeford will lose his seat in Cardiff West ....
    UNS is. Although theoretically the 2.5% Lab -> PC swing should unseat him he'll get a leader's bounce and cling on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    Depends if Taiwan has acquired nuclear weapons by then or not.

    If however China tried to expand beyond Taiwan then the US would certainly respond, most likely joined by Japan and South Korea, most likely militarily if Trump was back in office in 2024
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    Labour losses in Wales are pretty much baked in, as the Great Drakeford is not as popular as Carwyn at the height of his powers. Carwyn did really well in both 2011 and 2016 -- some of this will unwind.

    If Labour can get away with -4, they will have done well.

    If the Tories are doing as well as this, then it is the end of the road for the LibDems, they will lose Brecon & Radnorshire, their only seat. The rodents are exterminated.

    I have ZERO sympathy, I have repeatedly been remonstrated on pb.com by LibDems based in Tallinn, or Richmond, or Bedford, or the Isle of Wight as to how Wales should be grateful to the LibDems. The LibDems are getting their just desserts for repeatedly parachuting pompous & distant Londoners -- who know nothing about Wales -- into Welsh seats.

    Lembit Opik is hard to forgive.

    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.
    Wales should be grateful for the LibDems.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    China won't invade Taiwan, because there is no need. Taiwan is will slowly - over a multi-decade timeframe - merge again with the mainland.

    The KMT, which supports reunification with the mainland, has been (slowly) growing and growing. In 2016, they got 30% in the Presidential election, last year, it was 39%. Why would China invade when they can have the coup of the millennium by having Taiwan voluntarily rejoin China?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited March 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    China won't invade Taiwan, because there is no need. Taiwan is will slowly - over a multi-decade timeframe - merge again with the mainland.

    The KMT, which supports reunification with the mainland, has been (slowly) growing and growing. In 2016, they got 30% in the Presidential election, last year, it was 39%. Why would China invade when they can have the coup of the millennium by having Taiwan voluntarily rejoin China?
    While I don't disagree with the overall drift, it is important to highlight that 2016 was the KMT's worst ever result, and the first time that they weren't either in Government or head of the largest alliance. Indeed, 2020 is still the KMT's 3rd worst result ever by vote share (behind 2016 and 2001).

    2016 was the first time the DPP got a majority in the Yuan, and in 2020 they held it. Buttressed by an overly supportive Japan/US/UK/France alliance (see: journeys through the Taiwan Strait) separatism could continue to strengthen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    And of course the world's microchip fabs are now concentrated there....
    I just did a quick “China overtakes” google

    China has just become the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, overtaking America

    China has just become the biggest trading partner of the EU, overtaking America

    China is overtaking America in AI, supercomputers, patent applications, and is now the biggest box office market in the world (overtaking America)

    It’s happening right now. China is probably more powerful than America, already. Because trade is power

    It’s done. Say hello to the new boss, he’s not like the old boss


    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/china-overtakes-us-as-europes-main-trade-partner.html

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-overtakes-u-s-as-worlds-leading-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-11611511200

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/03/07/google-billionaire-eric-schmidt-warns-of-national-emergency-if-china-overtakes-us-in-ai-tech/

    https://news.sky.com/story/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-biggest-movie-box-office-in-2020-12108349
    If you want peak Western hubris, read Bill Clinton's speech on normalising trade relations with China in 2000.

    https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/Full_Text_of_Clintons_Speech_on_China_Trade_Bi.htm

    In the new century, liberty will spread by cell phone and cable modem. In the past year, the number of Internet addresses in China has more than quadrupled, from 2 million to 9 million. This year the number is expected to grow to over 20 million.

    When China joins the WTO, by 2005 it will eliminate tariffs on information technology products, making the tools of communication even cheaper, better, and more widely available. We know how much the Internet has changed America, and we are already an open society. Imagine how much it could change China.

    Now there's no question China has been trying to crack down on the Internet. (Chuckles.) Good luck! (Laughter.) That's sort of like trying to nail jello to the wall. (Laughter.) But I would argue to you that their effort to do that just proves how real these changes are and how much they threaten the status quo. It's not an argument for slowing down the effort to bring China into the world, it's an argument for accelerating that effort. In the knowledge economy, economic innovation and political empowerment, whether anyone likes it or not, will inevitably go hand in hand.

    Now of course, bringing China into the W.T.O. doesn't guarantee that it will choose political reform. But accelerating the progress — the process of economic change will force China to confront that choice sooner, and it will make the imperative for the right choice stronger. And again I ask, if China is willing to take this risk — and these leaders are very intelligent people; they know exactly what they're doing — if they're willing to take this risk, how can we turn our backs on the chance to take them up on it?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013



    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.

    Genuine question: what are they hypocritical about?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    And of course the world's microchip fabs are now concentrated there....
    I just did a quick “China overtakes” google

    China has just become the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, overtaking America

    China has just become the biggest trading partner of the EU, overtaking America

    China is overtaking America in AI, supercomputers, patent applications, and is now the biggest box office market in the world (overtaking America)

    It’s happening right now. China is probably more powerful than America, already. Because trade is power

    It’s done. Say hello to the new boss, he’s not like the old boss


    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/china-overtakes-us-as-europes-main-trade-partner.html

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-overtakes-u-s-as-worlds-leading-destination-for-foreign-direct-investment-11611511200

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/03/07/google-billionaire-eric-schmidt-warns-of-national-emergency-if-china-overtakes-us-in-ai-tech/

    https://news.sky.com/story/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-biggest-movie-box-office-in-2020-12108349
    If you want peak Western hubris, read Bill Clinton's speech on normalising trade relations with China in 2000.

    https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/Full_Text_of_Clintons_Speech_on_China_Trade_Bi.htm

    In the new century, liberty will spread by cell phone and cable modem. In the past year, the number of Internet addresses in China has more than quadrupled, from 2 million to 9 million. This year the number is expected to grow to over 20 million.

    When China joins the WTO, by 2005 it will eliminate tariffs on information technology products, making the tools of communication even cheaper, better, and more widely available. We know how much the Internet has changed America, and we are already an open society. Imagine how much it could change China.

    Now there's no question China has been trying to crack down on the Internet. (Chuckles.) Good luck! (Laughter.) That's sort of like trying to nail jello to the wall. (Laughter.) But I would argue to you that their effort to do that just proves how real these changes are and how much they threaten the status quo. It's not an argument for slowing down the effort to bring China into the world, it's an argument for accelerating that effort. In the knowledge economy, economic innovation and political empowerment, whether anyone likes it or not, will inevitably go hand in hand.

    Now of course, bringing China into the W.T.O. doesn't guarantee that it will choose political reform. But accelerating the progress — the process of economic change will force China to confront that choice sooner, and it will make the imperative for the right choice stronger. And again I ask, if China is willing to take this risk — and these leaders are very intelligent people; they know exactly what they're doing — if they're willing to take this risk, how can we turn our backs on the chance to take them up on it?
    Painful to read. The chuckling.

    Once China became capitalist, it was always going to overtake America, because sheer size. The question is whether we could have done anything to prevent China returning to autocracy. I doubt it. I can’t see any errors the West made (apart from things like Iraq, which accelerated western decline, but they were largely unrelated, unforced errors)

    What we need to do now is contain China, and regain western self confidence. This means fighting back against all this identity politics bullshit, which China and Russia are blatantly using to undermine western values, AND our belief in those values.

    I read various articles bemoaning the lack of free speech in China. It’s laughable. Is speech any freer in the west? Not any more. It’s arguably worse. We aren’t policed by the state. We police ourselves. We cancel each other like Red Guards.

    But China CAN be contained and war averted if the West abandons its headlong retreat from western values, and stands firm. China is ageing. India rises. The robots gleam.

    It’s a storm we have to weather. A long storm.


    Goodnight!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    China won't invade Taiwan, because there is no need. Taiwan is will slowly - over a multi-decade timeframe - merge again with the mainland.

    The KMT, which supports reunification with the mainland, has been (slowly) growing and growing. In 2016, they got 30% in the Presidential election, last year, it was 39%. Why would China invade when they can have the coup of the millennium by having Taiwan voluntarily rejoin China?
    While I don't disagree with the overall drift, it is important to highlight that 2016 was the KMT's worst ever result, and the first time that they weren't either in Government or head of the largest alliance. Indeed, 2020 is still the KMT's 3rd worst result ever by vote share (behind 2016 and 2001).

    2016 was the first time the DPP got a majority in the Yuan, and in 2020 they held it. Buttressed by an overly supportive Japan/US/UK/France alliance (see: journeys through the Taiwan Strait) separatism could continue to strengthen.
    Worth remembering, though, that the KMT used to be very hostile to the PRC, but is now all in favor of ever closer relations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Mango said:



    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.

    Genuine question: what are they hypocritical about?
    I believe that some of their members once went skiing, which makes them the lowest of the low as far as @YBarddCwsc is concerned
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    China won't invade Taiwan, because there is no need. Taiwan is will slowly - over a multi-decade timeframe - merge again with the mainland.

    The KMT, which supports reunification with the mainland, has been (slowly) growing and growing. In 2016, they got 30% in the Presidential election, last year, it was 39%. Why would China invade when they can have the coup of the millennium by having Taiwan voluntarily rejoin China?
    There’s a very persuasive Economist article - came out about a month back - which says Xi sees retaking Taiwan as the pinnacle of his career, making him without doubt the greatest Chinese leader since Mao, possibly greater. Like a Tang emperor.

    He’s 67. China is a bit of a gerontocracy- like America - but he’s only got about 10 years.

    My bet is he’ll try. Within those 10 years.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited March 2021
    Mango said:



    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.

    Genuine question: what are they hypocritical about?
    The Welsh Greens voted not to be a separate party (unlike the Scottish or N. Irish Greens), but to remain a sub-region of the Green Party of EnglandandWales.

    The Welsh branch of the EnglandandWales Greens then voted in favour of Welsh independence in 2020.

    It is difficult to see how these two seemingly contradictory positions are reconcilable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    They are seizing control of the entire South China Sea. No one can or will stop them.

    China will invade Taiwan within a decade, and very likely succeed. America won’t go total war with an equal enemy for Taiwan
    China won't invade Taiwan, because there is no need. Taiwan is will slowly - over a multi-decade timeframe - merge again with the mainland.

    The KMT, which supports reunification with the mainland, has been (slowly) growing and growing. In 2016, they got 30% in the Presidential election, last year, it was 39%. Why would China invade when they can have the coup of the millennium by having Taiwan voluntarily rejoin China?
    There’s a very persuasive Economist article - came out about a month back - which says Xi sees retaking Taiwan as the pinnacle of his career, making him without doubt the greatest Chinese leader since Mao, possibly greater. Like a Tang emperor.

    He’s 67. China is a bit of a gerontocracy- like America - but he’s only got about 10 years.

    My bet is he’ll try. Within those 10 years.
    Hmmm... I think that would be an EU-vaccine sized mistake.

    Taiwan would probably be happy with ever closer ties, until, eventually, it was an indistinguishable part of China. But an invasion... That's tough.

    Taiwan is a long way from China, and amphibious assaults are notoriously tricky. Taiwan also has lots of high tech western weaponry.

    And China doesn't want to take over the smoking ruins of Taiwan. Because, sure, given nuclear weapons it could probably retake Taiwan that way, but that's quite a big step.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Mango said:



    And it is also excellent to see the hypocritical EnglandandWales Green party getting a bashing. I am not too surprised -- they came out for Welsh independence, but their typical voter is an English Good-Lifer who has moved to Wales.

    Genuine question: what are they hypocritical about?
    The Welsh Greens voted not to be a separate party (unlike the Scottish or N. Irish Greens), but to remain a sub-region of the Green Party of EnglandandWales.

    The Welsh branch of the EnglandandWales Greens then voted in favour of Welsh independence in 2020.

    It is difficult to see how these two seemingly contradictory positions are reconcilable.
    Doesn't Wales even get full region status?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited March 2021
    Boris going Dutch with EU says the times. But it’s only on component from factory and offer to work together to improve production. But does tie in with what I suggested below.

    Most replies to my post I filed in “they’ve done it to themselves and it’s delicious to see them disappear into the hole” column. Most of rest filed in “they should stop digging and spoiling for a fight first if they want our hand into the hole” column. I put Black Rooks reply into the “it’s not politically impossible to share with ROI” column, where there is just the two of us at the moment.

    I guess at some point Boris will lead on this and the rest of you will follow. The PM has to act on that we are all floating in the COVID boat together.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited March 2021
    "The virus that causes the common cold can effectively boot the Covid virus out of the body's cells, say researchers.

    Some viruses are known to compete in order to be the one that causes an infection. And University of Glasgow scientists say it appears cold-causing rhinovirus trumps coronavirus. The benefits might be short-lived, but rhinovirus is so widespread they add it could still help to suppress Covid."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445
  • ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, this is good stuff but equally I’m not sure I fully agree. True, no party has lost a majority of this size since Wilson in 1970 (although due to by-election defeats Labour’s majority had been reduced to below 80 by 1970). Equally, no party since 1832 has won an election after fourteen or more years in office. And only one party has done it after ten.

    1945 may be a parallel, albeit an inexact one. An exhausted and discredited government that had just about coped with one crisis but was considered unequal to the next lost a huge majority to concede an equally huge one the other way.

    And that was after 14 years...

    I personally think that both those records will likely be broken if I am honest. I am fully expecting labour to lose a few seats at the next general election.
    Well, it should be noted he has already broken two longstanding records. He’s the first PM to increase a majority after more than 8 years in power and the first PM in the age of universal suffrage to return to power with an increased majority following a previous election with a reduced majority.

    Equally however, I’m not sure how many bets I would take on him still being PM in three years.
    The Remainer Parliament gave Boris the ability to run on the basis of running *against* the current group in power (in effect).

    To a certain extent, the clock was reset.
    I think this is a really important point. Whether you love or loathe Boris, shortly after the 2019 victory he delivered Brexit which mattered to his newfound supporters in the Red Wall. Brexit may no longer be an issue but that's only because Boris delivered it. Starmer, it should be noted, belonged to the old guard Remainer Parliament. Cameron-May were also part of that old guard. Boris ushered in the new.

    You could argue that viscerally it's Boris who is the Clement Attlee: he began a whole new era. (Obviously not politically!)

    None of that is my own position (I was pro EU once) but it feels instinctively correct to me that 2019 was a reset.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    New thread with Oxozena in the title.

    THIS THREAD HAS FINISHED DUMPING ON THE PAVEMENT.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Chameleon said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    kle4 said:

    Disaster for Labour in Wales

    A report or a prediction?

    I'm somewhat surprised to discover, even with the voting systems, that Labour have never quite managed a majority in the Senedd apparently.
    Poll. Not sure the Tories can or will go much higher than this.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1374139085061820416?s=21

    Welsh Conservatives heading for their best Senedd result since it was founded in 1999, what a great result for RT that would be
    You got a seat extrapolation for that?
    If anyone would, it would be you :wink:
    Lab: 24 (-5)
    Con: 19 (+8)
    PC: 14 (+3)
    Abolish: 2 (+2)
    LD: 1 (-)

    PC gain:
    Blaenau Gwent
    Cardiff West
    Llanelli

    Con gain:
    Cardiff North
    Vo Glamorgan
    Gower
    Clwyd
    Wexham

    There you go, did it to annoy my PC supporting mate.

    This is an existential crisis for Labour. In 2001 Wales + Scotland + the North delivered net 197 seats for Labour over the Conservatives (who embarrassingly only got 21 seats in those regions).

    In 2019? The figures are net 24 and 88 respectively.
    @Chameleon

    Given the electorates involved, I will be truly astonished if the Tories take Cardiff North but not Alyn and Deeside and Delyn. Cardiff North is the Welsh answer to Putney, where the affluent slightly lefty public sector now live. It’s trending away from the Tories and has been for some time. Equally, Newport is trending the other way.

    I will also be amazed if Drakeford loses Cardiff West, albeit that would be very, very funny.

    The Liberal Democrats will almost certainly lose Brecon and Radnor unless there is a radical change before polling day, such as their candidate dying and Kirsty Williams changing her mind on standing again.

    I don’t think this will be a seminal election but I think like 2017 a lot will be churning under the surface presaging some later quite dramatic changes.
This discussion has been closed.