The SNP has compounded the mistake by taking the opportunity to attack the UK government.
Unspoofable.
Osbrowne blunders in yet again with threats and the more amusing eccentrics think that's a sign of SNP intransigence. Viewers in scotland saw both the intervention and the response. Not the always laughable PB tory spin of either.
Currency, EU membership, defence arrangements, share of UK debt, blah, blah, blah. What are they heading towards? It's not clear.
I don't follow this too closely but I think we get have a general idea. We don't know how it will work out long-term, but we won't know this after negotiations either. There will be some politics in the meantime where people pretend not to know these things but basically it's:
Currency: (Short-term) Pound, some kind of Scottish representation on interest rate decisions etc. Scotland will accept Eurozone-like limits on deficits etc. Long-term they'll probably join the Euro, but not until it gets its shit together, which could take decades. (Likewise the UK.)
EU: In, basically the same deal as the now.
Defence: Scotland has its own army, but will have lots of transitional agreements so the UK won't suddenly have to relocate its submarine bases, as they're heavy and difficult to move.
Share of UK debt: Pretty much proportional to GDP.
RT @rolandwatson66: PM to 1922's 90th birthday bash: "I told Samantha I was going to see the '22. She said, it could be worse, they could be coming to see you."
It looks an interesting report, with some surprisingly cheerful conclusions for those that want to be cheered.
Its findings are a little bit of the 'water is wet' kind. How many people really don't understand the links between social deprivation and peaceful living conditions? But it is definitely worth a browse, if only to dish some popular myths - e.g. 'Britain is getting more violent'. It isn't. The reverse is true.
Currency: (Short-term) Pound, some kind of Scottish representation on interest rate decisions etc. Scotland will accept Eurozone-like limits on deficits etc. Long-term they'll probably join the Euro, but not until it gets its shit together, which could take decades. (Likewise the UK.)
EU: In, basically the same deal as the now.
Defence: Scotland has its own army, but will have lots of transitional agreements so the UK won't suddenly have to relocate its submarine bases, as they're heavy and difficult to move.
Share of UK debt: Pretty much proportional to GDP.
(1) The UK will never join the Euro. (2)Scotland would never get a rebate. (3) If Scotland gets to keep the oil she had when she joined the union, she can also keep the debt that England bailed her out of at the time.
'Osbrowne blunders in yet again with threats and the more amusing eccentrics think that's a sign of SNP intransigence. Viewers in scotland saw both the intervention and the response.'
Are the SNP going to blame the Tories when they lose the referendum?
But the rug would be much more effectively pulled from under the feet of the UK government if the SNP were to argue that they were looking for a civilised discussion on the precise terms of disentanglement, rather than look as though they were spoiling for a fight.
The No-er's entire campaign is predicated on spoiling for a fight, and there's little sign of that changing. Their gameplan is based on pushing the idea (much like here) that Scottish independence is so ridiculous and unlikely that it would be pointless to even discuss pre-pre-negotiations. The SNP have to pick a path between holding to their own position and saying they want to have 'a civilised discussion on the precise terms of disentanglement', which in point of fact they have done periodically. However they know and the UK government knows they know that civilised discussions aint going to happen.
For those who missed it, here's the sublime comedy of 'Farage at Large'. Think of Alan Partridge meets Borat and you're pretty much on the money. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQ0c63Y7FI
Lambeth was a Con/LD run area for a good chunk of the period in question
Although the crime rate fell during both admins
You'd be more persuasive Tim if you were not so persistently partisan.
As you know, major factors in the reduction of crime levels are aging population and reduced alcohol consumption, which are not really part of anybody's political manifesto.
Social deprivation clearly plays a role though and there is a clear message there, though the admirably non-partisan report points to long term measures rather than quick fixes.
At least the Nats have moved on from the "how dare GO come up to Scotland and lecture us" stance and have admitted he has a valid interest in the process.
Does anyone want to take bets on what point tim will be able to accept I'm no longer engaging with him? After being told nine or ten times, I can't work out if it's simply that he's too thick to understand or if its emotional neediness on his part that's driving his constant attempts at communication.
Moderators, seriously. tim has now accused me of racism several times on this thread and you've taken no action. You clearly have completely bullshit double standards in how you treat left wingers and right wingers on here.
Mick Pork and our SNP posters, how about informing us on how you think the seats at the next GE will split between the parties if the polls are right that the Independence vote is lost (sadly) next year ?
How about paying attention to threads? It was asked and answered a while ago nor was it the first time it was raised.
Sorry I am unable to spend 24/7 on here. Go on, for a change, please respond to something related to the thread article which is about Labour's prospects.
That areas which suffer from excessively rapid rates of immigration are more likely to suffer from social upheaval and the resultant violence.
Not sure what you mean by 'excessive', Socrates. One man's excess is another's dearth.
But have a look at the report. I'm not going to try and paraphrase it here, but it does rather confirm what most have figured out already - that improving incomes and livings standards does tend to alleviate crime and violence.
That areas which suffer from excessively rapid rates of immigration are more likely to suffer from social upheaval and the resultant violence.
I can't speak for the other areas - but Lewisham is the only one on the list I was familiar with [I had an office there and routinely locked my car doors when driving as far back as the mid 90s]. It had great shopping though and was a vibrant if violent place.
Camberwell/Peckham Rye were an awful dump, but Brixton rather nice in comparison and I never did get the riots there. It struck me as a great deal of aggressive black on black thug crime that's grown into more organised gangbanging where demands for Respect have descended to a stupid level.
The only other really crummy and intimidating areas I've felt really uncomfortable in were Stratford and Colingdale.
Sorry I am unable to spend 24/7 on here. Go on, for a change, please respond to something related to the thread article which is about Labour's prospects.
I was actually going to but not after that I won't. Keep looking or pay more attention when others do bring it up.
(3) If Scotland gets to keep the oil she had when she joined the union, she can also keep the debt that England bailed her out of at the time.
Blah blah blah. There's going to be a discussion about how to split up two parts of a modern democratic country. The debt discussion isn't going to be based on a bunch of twattish political snark on who owes who what from 1707.
That areas which suffer from excessively rapid rates of immigration are more likely to suffer from social upheaval and the resultant violence.
Not sure what you mean by 'excessive', Socrates. One man's excess is another's dearth.
But have a look at the report. I'm not going to try and paraphrase it here, but it does rather confirm what most have figured out already - that improving incomes and livings standards does tend to alleviate crime and violence.
I agree - but importing large numbers of poor people from the world's trouble spots isn't exactly going to help that, is it?
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
We ought to have a version of Godwin's Law dedicated to you: "As a PB discussion grows longer, the probability of MickPork using 'Osbrowne' or 'PBTories' approaches 1. The convergence is faster if the topic under debate is not about Tories or Osborne."
Nobody spends more time whining about their poor feelings getting hurt over harmless terms than tories on PB. I mean seriously, where else would tories get so hilariously upset over being called PB tories than on PB? It's absolutely comical.
As for Osbrowne or Cammie, I'll take that seriously when I see PB tories slam anyone calling little Ed, rEd, Red Ed or just that perennial PB tory favourite 'Ed is crap'. The tories on PB certainly didn't have a problem when all those threads were going.
It certainly looks like hypocrisy rolled in with glorious irony.
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
Glad to hear it - it was a shockingly awful crap hole when I went there last - it made Dartford/Elephant & Castle look posh. I worked out of E&C when at the DoH and none of the several hundred staff went outside at all except to go to the Tube station..
How places can become such hideous dumps is beyond me.
Obviously we can you can never say with complete certainly, but I'd say it's highly unlikely the UK will ever join. The current level of EU integration is already chafing the British, and there's likely to be more divergence between the UK's level integration and what the core is doing, making a wider chasm to jump across. You also said "probably".
(3) If Scotland gets to keep the oil she had when she joined the union, she can also keep the debt that England bailed her out of at the time.
Blah blah blah. There's going to be a discussion about how to split up two parts of a modern democratic country. The debt discussion isn't going to be based on a bunch of twattish political snark on who owes who what from 1707.
Yes, I was being snarky and the 1707 debt won't be an issue. I do think it'll be based on population rather than GDP however. I also don't think Scotland will walk away with more assets per capita than the UK.
I can never understand the “LAB needs to be doing better in the south” argument. Why? The red team will focus almost their entire efforts on winning seats at GE2015 – not building up vote shares where’s there’s no hope of gaining an MP.
It's a shame (and this holds for Tories in Scotland) because the Prime Minister, once elected, represents the UK around the world. It would be nice if he or she had the support of, if not you, your neighbour; also that the very low share reflects that many people weren't even close to voting for that party, yet their leader stands in your place on the world stage.
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
Glad to hear it - it was a shockingly awful crap hole when I went there last - it made Dartford/Elephant & Castle look posh. I worked out of E&C when at the DoH and none of the several hundred staff went outside at all except to go to the Tube station..
How places can become such hideous dumps is beyond me.
Elephant & Castle is being regenerated isn't it? Given it's prime location, I'd think it would be a great investment to buy a house there if you can bear to live in the place for the meantime.
Does anyone want to take bets on what point tim will be able to accept I'm no longer engaging with him? After being told nine or ten times, I can't work out if it's simply that he's too thick to understand or if its emotional neediness on his part that's driving his constant attempts at communication.
I'm not going to stop correcting your immigration and race theories.
He thinks it's race, but now I've corrected his list he'll struggle to work out why Glasgow is in there, ranking higher than Brent. And Leicester nowhere to be seen.
To be fair, Socrates' list is copied and pasted from the BBC article that is linked, you have added Glasgow to it
Good news is Hersham. Bad news the cat won't let me in and has locked the Johnny-flap. Where's Plato when you need her?
You can get through a cat flap? My son could get through the large dog flap until he turned 12.
I can get in the house via my dog flap - but it does require some considerable shuffling now I've gained a few pounds.
How often do you use this entrance?
Erm, when I've lost my keys or the door has blown shut on me :^O This is usually about twice a year...and its now surrounded by nettles so I'm EXTRA careful not to repeat the mistake...
There's no way the government can impose such a ban technically; that was the primary reason I was opposed to home optins and whatnot - because that failure would mean a lot of collateral. If this is a fairly straightforward responsibility on public wifi systems to install the sort of software used by schools at the moment (and maybe some offices?), then I see no reason why it would not work: the vast majority of public wifis are operated by Starbucks, McDonalds, Cloud, and so on.
@Obitus "Crime has fallen at the same time as inequality has remained static - so the favoured theory of the left is also contradicted by the recent trend."
That's too simplistic, Obitus, and a bit tendentious.
Clearly a major factor in the reduction of the crime rate is the change in the age structure of the population. Nevertheless the link between crime and wage levels, living standards and the indicators of poverty generally is there to be seen.
But then who would have thought otherwise, 'left' or not?
For those who missed it, here's the sublime comedy of 'Farage at Large'. Think of Alan Partridge meets Borat and you're pretty much on the money. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQ0c63Y7FI
Or "if you disagree with him you will think he comes across badly, if you agree with him you will think he comes across well"
Who is the most popular leader according to the polls btw?
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
Glad to hear it - it was a shockingly awful crap hole when I went there last - it made Dartford/Elephant & Castle look posh. I worked out of E&C when at the DoH and none of the several hundred staff went outside at all except to go to the Tube station..
How places can become such hideous dumps is beyond me.
Elephant & Castle is being regenerated isn't it? Given it's prime location, I'd think it would be a great investment to buy a house there if you can bear to live in the place for the meantime.
The DoH was meant to be part of some grand plan to get more investment in there - but it didn't work as far as I could see. The DoH building was allegedly commissioned by some offshore firm who wanted a site close to the City and went ahead based on maps only. When they discovered what the area was actually like - they changed their mind and the building was empty until DoH moved in. This could be a load of crap - but sounds very plausible.
E&C may be nice in 15yrs - but its a hole and has been for decades. I hated going there when I was at college back in the 80s and still kept looking behind me/held onto my bag as late as 2010 when I worked there.
There were no cashpoints or decent shops - just a cruddy market/a dirty Tescos, one bank that felt like it was about to held up and had queues 20 long and the Ministry of Sound down the road. I can't imagine anyone wanting to move there.
There's no way the government can impose such a ban technically; that was the primary reason I was opposed to home optins and whatnot - because that failure would mean a lot of collateral. If this is a fairly straightforward responsibility on public wifi systems to install the sort of software used by schools at the moment (and maybe some offices?), then I see no reason why it would not work: the vast majority of public wifis are operated by Starbucks, McDonalds, Cloud, and so on.
Postal votes started to be delivered in the post box yesterday in South Shields. They should arrive all by Friday.
There were 23,222 postal applications in 2010 GE.
The new news on Shields Gazette are:
Cuts here are worst - Labour ‘Top Tory of future’ joins MP hopeful (the top Top Tory of Future is Adam Afriyie) Whistleblower in running for Miliband seat Political big guns head for South Tyneside (it's 3 unamed Cabinet Ministers, 1 this week, 2 next week; Farage next week; Raving Loony Party candidate today)
@Obitus "Crime has fallen at the same time as inequality has remained static - so the favoured theory of the left is also contradicted by the recent trend."
That's too simplistic, Obitus, and a bit tendentious.
Clearly a major factor in the reduction of the crime rate is the change in the age structure of the population. Nevertheless the link between crime and wage levels, living standards and the indicators of poverty generally is there to be seen.
But then who would have thought otherwise, 'left' or not?
The number of people in the 15-24 age group in E&W has actually risen, from 6,339,520 in 2001 to 7,346,630 in 2011, outpacing national population growth: from 12.2% to 13.1% of the population. Adding in 25-29 doesn't make much difference.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true.
Yep. Some kippers might not be happy but that is actually far from a terrible voteshare for them. It was 3.1% in 2010 after all. Which, lest we forget, was more than enough for some tories to blame on Cammie failing to win a majority.
Man goes to Bulgaria, asks Bulgarians if they are all coming to Britain, they say no. Man see this as proof they are all coming to Britain.
How many Bulgarians & Romanians do you think will come to live in the UK next year? How many would be too many in your opinion? If Farages predictions are correct will you acknowledge it or will you just say how great it is for the economy etc?
Why dont left wingers admit they want the UK to be flooded with immigrants before it happens instead of saying its not going to happen, and then distracting the argument away from the numbers when it has by telling everyone how great it has been according to surveys and opinion polls?
That areas which suffer from excessively rapid rates of immigration are more likely to suffer from social upheaval and the resultant violence.
Not sure what you mean by 'excessive', Socrates. One man's excess is another's dearth.
But have a look at the report. I'm not going to try and paraphrase it here, but it does rather confirm what most have figured out already - that improving incomes and livings standards does tend to alleviate crime and violence.
I agree - but importing large numbers of poor people from the world's trouble spots isn't exactly going to help that, is it?
The report does not look at immigration per se, but you can draw inferences if you are so inclined.
The type of immigration you probably have in mind would be associated with low incomes and social deprivation and would therefore be associated with higher (though declining) levels of crime and violence. If immigration were the cause of those higher levels that might be interesting. The report does not specifically look at that - beyond its remit I suppose - but if there were a causal link it would probably be self-evident. That there is not kind of speaks for itself, and provides Tim with all sorts of amusing tid-bits with which to beat you up. (Leicester and Glasgow for example.)
I should add that the type of immigration you do NOT have in mind is also not associated with high levels of crime and violence. Computer technicians, management consultants, private equity managers and the like coming to the City of London and other business centres from overseas do not noticeably increase those levels. But I guess you knew that.
RT @jaomahony: Virgin Media not having a good day after allegedly charging a dead man £10 for a late payment - shared 34k times. http://t.co/a6SuCfdBiz
RT @Channel4News: Stafford Borough Council has referred 2 ex-Mid Staffs bosses to the CPS for investigation #C4news More on Mid Staffs> http://t.co/7Ne6NMgOs3
The Wheels of Justice appear to be finally catching up.
Farage (like rEd) will suffer a dose of the Kinnockitus in the GE campaign - particularly if the Ukip share holds up and once the handwringer press cotton on to the fact its Labour votes on the line too.
I'm a bit concerned Nigel might be moving to Bulgaria though
His political hinterland as a reality TV show favourite seems assured though. Even Widdecombe would be hard pushed to match his jovial hapless entertainment.
I have no idea, I don't know how many British employers will choose to employ Bulgarians or Romanians, nor do I care very much,as I don't care if a British building company employs a Polish joiner or a school employs a French teacher or British pensioners go and live in Spain.
Thats free movement of people within a single market.
Of course. Its a quite popular view that you have.
But why do you mock those who predict high numbers of immigrants if you have no idea yourself how many there will be, and dont see it as a problem if there are far more than forecast (as with the Polish influx in the 2000s)?
I see that the plod investigating the IPCC has now evolved into a wider blue-on-blue attack
RT @lucymanning: IPCC damning. "Hard to understand" how senior officer didnt know about alleged hacking. "Scarcely credible" no one recognised its relevance
"I respected his father [Marxist academic Ralph] very much,” says Mr Galloway, now MP for Bradford West."
" “I want to see Ed Miliband as prime minister and the sooner the better,” says Mr Galloway. He is encouraging his supporters to vote Labour where there is no Respect candidate."
That areas which suffer from excessively rapid rates of immigration are more likely to suffer from social upheaval and the resultant violence.
Not sure what you mean by 'excessive', Socrates. One man's excess is another's dearth.
But have a look at the report. I'm not going to try and paraphrase it here, but it does rather confirm what most have figured out already - that improving incomes and livings standards does tend to alleviate crime and violence.
I agree - but importing large numbers of poor people from the world's trouble spots isn't exactly going to help that, is it?
The report does not look at immigration per se, but you can draw inferences if you are so inclined.
The type of immigration you probably have in mind would be associated with low incomes and social deprivation and would therefore be associated with higher (though declining) levels of crime and violence. If immigration were the cause of those higher levels that might be interesting. The report does not specifically look at that - beyond its remit I suppose - but if there were a causal link it would probably be self-evident. That there is not kind of speaks for itself, and provides Tim with all sorts of amusing tid-bits with which to beat you up. (Leicester and Glasgow for example.)
You have to be pretty stupid to think that anything off a 100% correlation line disproves a theory. It's like an idiot I knew in high school who thought the negative health effects of smoking was a myth because his nan was a smoker and lived to 89.
I should add that the type of immigration you do NOT have in mind is also not associated with high levels of crime and violence. Computer technicians, management consultants, private equity managers and the like coming to the City of London and other business centres from overseas do not noticeably increase those levels. But I guess you knew that.
Well, indeed. I basically think immigration should be next to impossible if your household earns less than, say, £40k a year, and we should allow virtually open immigration to people earning more than, say, £70k (albeit with requirements of oaths on values, civics tests and English language ability).
Galloway endorses EdM - I'm sure he's delighted. I cringed when reading he was impressed with him *physically* - urgh
George Galloway is in the news. Again. The weekend revelation that he met Ed Miliband to discuss boundary changes led to a hasty denial from the Labour leader’s HQ that the possibility of Mr Galloway rejoining the party would ever be contemplated. “Ed Miliband asked for the meeting and I happily met him,” says the Respect MP. Which rather puts Mr Miliband in his place. “It was the first time I ever met him. It’s remarkable that you can become leader of the Labour Party when you’ve been elected in 2005.”
Or "if you disagree with him you will think he comes across badly, if you agree with him you will think he comes across well"
I see you didn't understand. No matter. It is precisely what Farage wants for something like a local election. More publicity and even though he didn't exactly prove his political point he was entertaining and jovial throughout. He doesn't look like a serious leader but then he doesn't need to for harnessing a protest vote. If he has any sense he'll do far more of this kind of thing even if he doesn't always score political points. He still needs to get the likes of Daine James on the media far more and the new UKIP PPB was a step in the right direction.
@Obitus "Crime has fallen at the same time as inequality has remained static - so the favoured theory of the left is also contradicted by the recent trend."
That's too simplistic, Obitus, and a bit tendentious.
Clearly a major factor in the reduction of the crime rate is the change in the age structure of the population. Nevertheless the link between crime and wage levels, living standards and the indicators of poverty generally is there to be seen.
But then who would have thought otherwise, 'left' or not?
The number of people in the 15-24 age group in E&W has actually risen, from 6,339,520 in 2001 to 7,346,630 in 2011, outpacing national population growth: from 12.2% to 13.1% of the population. Adding in 25-29 doesn't make much difference.
You have to look at the age structure as a whole, Grandiose, and of course it is not the only factor. To quote the report itself:
"The downward trend in violence is potentially due to a range of factors: • Changes in police practices and technological improvements. • Aging population. • Decreasing alcohol consumption. • Rising real wages due to the introduction of the living wage."
Maybe I highlighted age because my own experience illustrates it. I was a right tearwaway in my youth (in Hackney!) but now I commit fewer than ten or so crimes per week, mostly speeding in my car. Just can't be bothered to get into fights any more.
RT @Lawrence_Miles: Trojans to sue after finding out their name is used to describe infiltrator software: "That was the sodding Greeks," says King Priam.
They are taking their eye off the ball since the real threat has always been and will always be muslim immigrant cats, as anyone on PB knows full well. ;^)
UK levels of violence falling ... so what's the cause(s)?
Reporting bias? possible but unlikely. Pb intake down? fascinating but unlikely. Ethanol intake down? probable in my view. Immigration? Muslims (or rather devout ones) don't drink alcohol so that would be a confounding factor anyway.
It's unlikely to be just one factor but alcohol intake is usually a safe bet.
RT @Tim_Wallace: "Public service productivity has remained constant between 1997 and 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 0.0%."
That's an appalling performance metric however you look at it. No improvement at all?
If that's productivity as in output per worker per time, it need not be too bad. If the public sector added low-skilled people to thus bring down the average, then the rest must have had a corresponding increase. Devil's in the detail.
But why do you mock those who predict high numbers of immigrants if you have no idea yourself how many there will be, and dont see it as a problem if there are far more than forecast (as with the Polish influx in the 200s)?
Because all emigration "polls" show ludicrous figures - 50-75% of Brits are mulling emigration at any particular time.
As for the Polish parallels, well first of all our economy is flatlining,secondly there are 24 other countries to go to in the EU and thirdly there are well established links between Bulgaria and Romania and other countries. If British employers choose to employ a lot of Bulgarians and Romanians then they'll have to be bloody good in the present labour market conditions.
Everybody is really excited about so very little poll movement. I remember not that long ago Blue PBers saying that Dave should go to the country early after his EU triumph.
Polls go up and down.
Personally I think the Thatcher two week fest nudged the terms of the political debate on to Tory ground.
Well yes, but there are a lot of stupid people out there.
Not too keen on your 'tests' idea. Who will serve me my cappucinos if immigrants below your proposed level are excluded?
And if we go down that road, won't other countries retaliate with their own measures? This is of considerable concern to me because I am thinking of becoming an immigrant in France. I do speak the lingo, but I don't have anything like that level of income, and I certainly do NOT want to swear an oath of allegiance to Francois Hollande.
Dave avoids more and more PMQs more and more sittings.
Get used to it.
This parliament is grinding towards stasis with very few things likely to get done with those things that are coming up like the snoopers charter merely ensuring coalition flashpoints.
Everybody is really excited about so very little poll movement. I remember not that long ago Blue PBers saying that Dave should go to the country early after his EU triumph.
Polls go up and down.
Personally I think the Thatcher two week fest nudged the terms of the political debate on to Tory ground.
This nudge has, at least for the time being, wiped out most of the effect of the "omnishambles" budget - 7 points was typical for most of 2011, and YouGov at the moment is just above 8, down from just above 10. It's a notable decrease, even if it doesn't stick.
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
Glad to hear it - it was a shockingly awful crap hole when I went there last - it made Dartford/Elephant & Castle look posh. I worked out of E&C when at the DoH and none of the several hundred staff went outside at all except to go to the Tube station..
How places can become such hideous dumps is beyond me.
Elephant & Castle is being regenerated isn't it? Given it's prime location, I'd think it would be a great investment to buy a house there if you can bear to live in the place for the meantime.
The DoH was meant to be part of some grand plan to get more investment in there - but it didn't work as far as I could see. The DoH building was allegedly commissioned by some offshore firm who wanted a site close to the City and went ahead based on maps only. When they discovered what the area was actually like - they changed their mind and the building was empty until DoH moved in. This could be a load of crap - but sounds very plausible.
E&C may be nice in 15yrs - but its a hole and has been for decades. I hated going there when I was at college back in the 80s and still kept looking behind me/held onto my bag as late as 2010 when I worked there.
There were no cashpoints or decent shops - just a cruddy market/a dirty Tescos, one bank that felt like it was about to held up and had queues 20 long and the Ministry of Sound down the road. I can't imagine anyone wanting to move there.
The only redeeming feature of Elephant & Castle is the Bakerloo line entrance:
Well yes, but there are a lot of stupid people out there.
Not too keen on your 'tests' idea. Who will serve me my cappucinos if immigrants below your proposed level are excluded?
And if we go down that road, won't other countries retaliate with their own measures? This is of considerable concern to me because I am thinking of becoming an immigrant in France. I do speak the lingo, but I don't have anything like that level of income, and I certainly do NOT want to swear an oath of allegiance to Francois Hollande.
"Well, indeed. I basically think immigration should be next to impossible if your household earns less than, say, £40k a year, and we should allow virtually open immigration to people earning more than, say, £70k (albeit with requirements of oaths on values, civics tests and English language ability)."
Not sure about that. We would, for example, lose a lot of potentially fantastic R&D expertise if we prevented very well qualifiued immigrants from taking entry level university research jobs.
Nigel Farage: "In demographic and political terms, if we get a Portsmouth South by-election this summer – which I believe we will – then I would think that the odds on Ukip winning it will be 3-1 or 2-1 at Ladbrokes. We would have a real chance of winning that by-election."
Falling drug and drink use (the post-1988 rise being clearly associated with new drugs and drug-selling), some of which takes a while to work through the system; better outlets for youths due to the rise of social media - less hanging around on the streets, more playing Call of Duty. That would account for some things, taken together, but it can't really explain the significant fall in homicides (even excluding Shipman from the peak) - most aren't carried out by young people or, particularly, drink or drug users. Perhaps our grip on mental health problems has tightened a bit; perhaps fewer unhappy couples stick together these days.
RT @Tim_Wallace: "Public service productivity has remained constant between 1997 and 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 0.0%."
That's an appalling performance metric however you look at it. No improvement at all?
Productivity is a dubious measure in many parts of the public sector in my opinion.
Take nurses for example. Say you have two nurses for each ward of 20 patients in a hospital in London, but one nurse for each ward of 16 patients in a hospital in Stafford. The nurses in Stafford have a higher productivity, because they are "caring" for more patients each, right?
Anecdotes alert: had dinner recently with six people, all of whom had voted Tory until recently - and all of whom would now respond to a poll by saying they would vote UKIP. However, what became clear in our conversation was that if there was any risk of that delivering the two Eds into Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street, they would all be back voting Tory.
Also, chatting* to my builders, they are VERY pleased that the Gov. is visibly getting to grips with maximum amounts for benefit claimants - and are much more inclined to give Cameron a fair hearing as a result. I suspect this may be more to do with any modest recovery for the Tories in the polls.
(*My builders do seem very happy to chat rather than hit things with heavy hammers or lift heavy steel beams into place...I am seriously rethinking giving them the contract to build the inaugural Death Star....)
The UK homicide rate is now roughly equivalent to the Western European average and at its lowest level since 1978 But UK violent crime rate is significantly higher than the European average
Everybody is really excited about so very little poll movement.
At precisely the wrong time which just makes it even more amusing.
There won't need to be endless speculation about which polls are most/least favourable and what is MOE or significant on May 2nd. That's real votes by real voters on a far bigger and more reliable scale than any poll.
Any narrative about small poll movements gets wiped out as soon as the results come in. VI will then take a backseat for quite some time and the narrative will be driven by the results.
Those getting their hopes up on small movements will then look quite the fools if the results do not accord with any 'fightback' or 'surge'.
Comments
Maybe Jack thinks the SNP will peel off some Labour seats, which is possible, but not that many.
Osbrowne blunders in yet again with threats and the more amusing eccentrics think that's a sign of SNP intransigence. Viewers in scotland saw both the intervention and the response.
Not the always laughable PB tory spin of either.
Currency: (Short-term) Pound, some kind of Scottish representation on interest rate decisions etc. Scotland will accept Eurozone-like limits on deficits etc. Long-term they'll probably join the Euro, but not until it gets its shit together, which could take decades. (Likewise the UK.)
EU: In, basically the same deal as the now.
Defence: Scotland has its own army, but will have lots of transitional agreements so the UK won't suddenly have to relocate its submarine bases, as they're heavy and difficult to move.
Share of UK debt: Pretty much proportional to GDP.
RT @rolandwatson66: PM to 1922's 90th birthday bash: "I told Samantha I was going to see the '22. She said, it could be worse, they could be coming to see you."
40 others - NI 18 .. SNP 14 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. Respect 1 .. Ind 1 .. Ukip 1 .. Speaker 1
Can I also ask why one poster is allowed to get away with this crap again and again, when other posters get banned for much less?
Ok - so it is definitely Labour run councils.... high tax = high frustration ?
It looks an interesting report, with some surprisingly cheerful conclusions for those that want to be cheered.
Its findings are a little bit of the 'water is wet' kind. How many people really don't understand the links between social deprivation and peaceful living conditions? But it is definitely worth a browse, if only to dish some popular myths - e.g. 'Britain is getting more violent'. It isn't. The reverse is true.
(2)Scotland would never get a rebate.
(3) If Scotland gets to keep the oil she had when she joined the union, she can also keep the debt that England bailed her out of at the time.
'Osbrowne blunders in yet again with threats and the more amusing eccentrics think that's a sign of SNP intransigence. Viewers in scotland saw both the intervention and the response.'
Are the SNP going to blame the Tories when they lose the referendum?
Think of Alan Partridge meets Borat and you're pretty much on the money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQ0c63Y7FI
As you know, major factors in the reduction of crime levels are aging population and reduced alcohol consumption, which are not really part of anybody's political manifesto.
Social deprivation clearly plays a role though and there is a clear message there, though the admirably non-partisan report points to long term measures rather than quick fixes.
New motion charts highlight changes in disposable income in your area: (regional) goo.gl/dC4qN (local) goo.gl/sGudf
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/GDHINUTS1/googleEmbedded.html
Interesting stuff.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/regulated-market-nhs-competition
Expect to see him have the whip removed for exposing Labour's hypocrisy on this.
RT @OliverCooper: Angela Merkel: "Everyone else calls it austerity. I call it balancing the budget." http://t.co/Epi5XtbkTN
Are the tories going to blame the lib dems for getting a hammering at the May locals?
RT @CourtNewsUK: 11 members of home grown terrorist cell behind suicide bomb plot to rival 7/7 and 9/11 atrocities face jail http://courtnewsuk.co.uk
"His intervention comes after a long running campaign by the Daily Mail" - this never ends well.
But have a look at the report. I'm not going to try and paraphrase it here, but it does rather confirm what most have figured out already - that improving incomes and livings standards does tend to alleviate crime and violence.
Camberwell/Peckham Rye were an awful dump, but Brixton rather nice in comparison and I never did get the riots there. It struck me as a great deal of aggressive black on black thug crime that's grown into more organised gangbanging where demands for Respect have descended to a stupid level.
The only other really crummy and intimidating areas I've felt really uncomfortable in were Stratford and Colingdale.
My son could get through the large dog flap until he turned 12.
You should try revisiting Stratford, Plato.
It has improved out of all recognition since the Olympics. The Westfield shopping centre is great and clearly provides a place where young people (like me!) can feel at home. The jobs it provides also help.
http://order-order.com/2013/04/23/police-launch-formal-investigation-into-rennard/
The lead poisoning hypothesis is interesting - of course relative crime levels can be caused by a combination of different factors.
How places can become such hideous dumps is beyond me.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/326658870867013633/photo/1
There's no way the government can impose such a ban technically; that was the primary reason I was opposed to home optins and whatnot - because that failure would mean a lot of collateral. If this is a fairly straightforward responsibility on public wifi systems to install the sort of software used by schools at the moment (and maybe some offices?), then I see no reason why it would not work: the vast majority of public wifis are operated by Starbucks, McDonalds, Cloud, and so on.
"Crime has fallen at the same time as inequality has remained static - so the favoured theory of the left is also contradicted by the recent trend."
That's too simplistic, Obitus, and a bit tendentious.
Clearly a major factor in the reduction of the crime rate is the change in the age structure of the population. Nevertheless the link between crime and wage levels, living standards and the indicators of poverty generally is there to be seen.
But then who would have thought otherwise, 'left' or not?
Who is the most popular leader according to the polls btw?
E&C may be nice in 15yrs - but its a hole and has been for decades. I hated going there when I was at college back in the 80s and still kept looking behind me/held onto my bag as late as 2010 when I worked there.
There were no cashpoints or decent shops - just a cruddy market/a dirty Tescos, one bank that felt like it was about to held up and had queues 20 long and the Ministry of Sound down the road. I can't imagine anyone wanting to move there.
After I generously gave you 4/6 about a 1/5 shot (UKIP under 10%) its the least you could do
There were 23,222 postal applications in 2010 GE.
The new news on Shields Gazette are:
Cuts here are worst - Labour
‘Top Tory of future’ joins MP hopeful (the top Top Tory of Future is Adam Afriyie)
Whistleblower in running for Miliband seat
Political big guns head for South Tyneside (it's 3 unamed Cabinet Ministers, 1 this week, 2 next week; Farage next week; Raving Loony Party candidate today)
Why dont left wingers admit they want the UK to be flooded with immigrants before it happens instead of saying its not going to happen, and then distracting the argument away from the numbers when it has by telling everyone how great it has been according to surveys and opinion polls?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QYCTDXq56w
The type of immigration you probably have in mind would be associated with low incomes and social deprivation and would therefore be associated with higher (though declining) levels of crime and violence. If immigration were the cause of those higher levels that might be interesting. The report does not specifically look at that - beyond its remit I suppose - but if there were a causal link it would probably be self-evident. That there is not kind of speaks for itself, and provides Tim with all sorts of amusing tid-bits with which to beat you up. (Leicester and Glasgow for example.)
I should add that the type of immigration you do NOT have in mind is also not associated with high levels of crime and violence. Computer technicians, management consultants, private equity managers and the like coming to the City of London and other business centres from overseas do not noticeably increase those levels. But I guess you knew that.
"Thats a shockingly well hung ARSE."
Some things are just meant to be !!
The Wheels of Justice appear to be finally catching up.
Should be good fun in 2015.
Even Widdecombe would be hard pushed to match his jovial hapless entertainment.
But why do you mock those who predict high numbers of immigrants if you have no idea yourself how many there will be, and dont see it as a problem if there are far more than forecast (as with the Polish influx in the 2000s)?
RT @lucymanning: IPCC damning. "Hard to understand" how senior officer didnt know about alleged hacking. "Scarcely credible" no one recognised its relevance
Interview in Evening Standard..
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/i-want-ed-miliband-to-be-pm-says-labour-outcast-8585723.html
"I respected his father [Marxist academic Ralph] very much,” says Mr Galloway, now MP for Bradford West."
" “I want to see Ed Miliband as prime minister and the sooner the better,” says Mr Galloway. He is encouraging his supporters to vote Labour where there is no Respect candidate."
George Galloway is in the news. Again. The weekend revelation that he met Ed Miliband to discuss boundary changes led to a hasty denial from the Labour leader’s HQ that the possibility of Mr Galloway rejoining the party would ever be contemplated. “Ed Miliband asked for the meeting and I happily met him,” says the Respect MP. Which rather puts Mr Miliband in his place. “It was the first time I ever met him. It’s remarkable that you can become leader of the Labour Party when you’ve been elected in 2005.”
Mr Miliband will, no doubt, be glad to hear he is a fan. “I thought he was quite impressive, physically and intellectually... http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/i-want-ed-miliband-to-be-pm-says-labour-outcast-8585723.html
"The downward trend in violence is potentially due to a
range of factors:
•
Changes in police practices and technological
improvements.
•
Aging population.
•
Decreasing alcohol consumption.
•
Rising real wages due to the introduction of the living wage."
Maybe I highlighted age because my own experience illustrates it. I was a right tearwaway in my youth (in Hackney!) but now I commit fewer than ten or so crimes per week, mostly speeding in my car. Just can't be bothered to get into fights any more.
#foreverandaday
RT @Lawrence_Miles: Trojans to sue after finding out their name is used to describe infiltrator software: "That was the sodding Greeks," says King Priam.
That's an appalling performance metric however you look at it. No improvement at all?
UK levels of violence falling ... so what's the cause(s)?
Reporting bias? possible but unlikely.
Pb intake down? fascinating but unlikely.
Ethanol intake down? probable in my view.
Immigration? Muslims (or rather devout ones) don't drink alcohol so that would be a confounding factor anyway.
It's unlikely to be just one factor but alcohol intake is usually a safe bet.
Or bloody cheap!
Polls go up and down.
Personally I think the Thatcher two week fest nudged the terms of the political debate on to Tory ground.
Well yes, but there are a lot of stupid people out there.
Not too keen on your 'tests' idea. Who will serve me my cappucinos if immigrants below your proposed level are excluded?
And if we go down that road, won't other countries retaliate with their own measures? This is of considerable concern to me because I am thinking of becoming an immigrant in France. I do speak the lingo, but I don't have anything like that level of income, and I certainly do NOT want to swear an oath of allegiance to Francois Hollande.
This parliament is grinding towards stasis with very few things likely to get done with those things that are coming up like the snoopers charter merely ensuring coalition flashpoints.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Elephant_&_Castle_stn_north_entrance.JPG
Not sure about that. We would, for example, lose a lot of potentially fantastic R&D expertise if we prevented very well qualifiued immigrants from taking entry level university research jobs.
What is he getting in return ? Labour hold off in Bradford West ?
"In demographic and political terms, if we get a Portsmouth South by-election this summer – which I believe we will – then I would think that the odds on Ukip winning it will be 3-1 or 2-1 at Ladbrokes. We would have a real chance of winning that by-election."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10013513/Ukip-could-have-its-first-MP-within-months-Nigel-Farage-says.html
"....& you cant use Betfair"
C'est vrai? Merde alors!
Take nurses for example. Say you have two nurses for each ward of 20 patients in a hospital in London, but one nurse for each ward of 16 patients in a hospital in Stafford. The nurses in Stafford have a higher productivity, because they are "caring" for more patients each, right?
Also, chatting* to my builders, they are VERY pleased that the Gov. is visibly getting to grips with maximum amounts for benefit claimants - and are much more inclined to give Cameron a fair hearing as a result. I suspect this may be more to do with any modest recovery for the Tories in the polls.
(*My builders do seem very happy to chat rather than hit things with heavy hammers or lift heavy steel beams into place...I am seriously rethinking giving them the contract to build the inaugural Death Star....)
The UK homicide rate is now roughly equivalent to the Western European average and at its lowest level since 1978
But UK violent crime rate is significantly higher than the European average
why is our viloent crime rate so high?
A fun test, if you can get on, the server is a bit overloaded
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/23/harvard-guess-your-age-game_n_3137091.html?ncid=webmail10
It wasn't at all accurate for me but it was very flattering
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/oct/08/betfair-banned-france-gambling-law
There won't need to be endless speculation about which polls are most/least favourable and what is MOE or significant on May 2nd. That's real votes by real voters on a far bigger and more reliable scale than any poll.
Any narrative about small poll movements gets wiped out as soon as the results come in.
VI will then take a backseat for quite some time and the narrative will be driven by the results.
Those getting their hopes up on small movements will then look quite the fools if the results do not accord with any 'fightback' or 'surge'.