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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the markets are bullish about the Tories’ chances

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the markets are bullish about the Tories’ chances

If the polls are to be believed, Labour is on course for a comfortable victory in 2015.  As Mike has pointed out in several related posts over the last few weeks, the voters who backed the Lib Dems in 2010 and have since switched to Labour seem firm in their intention and are more likely to vote than the average.  Add in the effect of UKIP and the fact that Labour needs a much smaller lead over t…

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    So to sum up - wishful thinking
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I haven't read the thread yet as just heading to bed, but looks like a typically thoughtful piece, thanks David.

    My view would be that people who bet on politics enjoy the process and the detail of the game. The idea that a large chunk of voters would shift to Labour - which effectively has given them their stable 37-40 share (and hence the strength of their position) simple *because* of the formation of the coalition sticks in the craw somewhat: no willingness to give the Coalition the chance to prove themselves or to see whether the Lib Dems could moderate the baby-eating Tories (perhaps only to an arm and a leg?). Just a viscarel reaction.

    If the 2015 election was determined as simply as this, it means that all the political strategising and analysis that has gone on since them was pointless. But because "experts" like to think they are more sophisticated then there is probably a bias to assuming that the simple answer is wrong.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2014
    On topic, people who haven't thought it through at the level of the particular groups of voters and particular constituencies they'd have to win. The evidence for the failure to think through the latter is the way, despite Richard Nabavi patiently explaining it to anybody who is paying attention, you still seem to get much better odds on the constituencies they'd need to win than you do on them winning.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    So to sum up - wishful thinking

    So to sum up - Punters with real money at stake favour the unquestionable outpourings of my ARSE.

    Never knowingly undersold .....

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    it could simply be people – rich Tories in this case – backing their opinions rather than the evidence

    One might ask how these Tory gamblers became rich.

    Probably not by following the polls.

    Jack W will know.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JackW's ARSE and Rod Crosby's whatever-he's-using-now V tim's the-tories-are-toxic-and-the-fops-are useless and OGH's 2010 Lib Dems.

    It would be a brave punter to pick between these two heavyweight tag teams!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Rising from the sweet dreams of the righteous this morning I find it must have been bucketing down over at the test match and Sky are showing highlights of the Aussie first innings ....

    Oh dear .....
  • ....... and also by believing the election forecasting of the eminent Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, previously highly commended by OGH but seemingly no longer.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AveryLP said:

    it could simply be people – rich Tories in this case – backing their opinions rather than the evidence

    One might ask how these Tory gamblers became rich.

    Probably not by following the polls.

    Jack W will know.

    If the rich Tory gamblers work in the City, then yes, they probably did get rich by the market equivalent of following the polls -- the trend is your friend.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    The conservatives need liberals in labour/conservative marginals to return home. Of course, in conservative/liberal marginals they should stay labour...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    AveryLP said:

    it could simply be people – rich Tories in this case – backing their opinions rather than the evidence

    One might ask how these Tory gamblers became rich.

    Probably not by following the polls.

    Jack W will know.

    If the rich Tory gamblers work in the City, then yes, they probably did get rich by the market equivalent of following the polls -- the trend is your friend.
    Most of those people lost their jobs when the trend stopped being their friend in '08, in '11, and in '13.

  • I suspect a fair bit of double-counting in those five answers. What David (and other Tories) have to explain away - as well as a Labour majority - is a hung Parliament in which Labour are clearly the largest party. In that situation it would surely be suicidal for the Blue/Yellow coalition to seek to renew itself. And Ed Miliband - whose ratings would surely be improved by the mere fact of being in office - would not accept the Lib Dems as coalition partners, or at least not until they'd sacked Clegg (at a minimum).

    Perhaps the next election would be a good one for the Tories to lose, giving them a chance to weed out their "wets" and go into subsequent elections on a hard-right tax-cutting anti-welfare agenda in the knowledge that a minority Labour administration would quickly become so unpopular that the Tories could get in even if they promised to eat every baby in England.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    To David Herdson's OP list, we must, in these cynical times, add the possibility of a Tory conspiracy to spend peanuts shifting the odds in order to counter the media narrative of the polls.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The economy is the only one of those considerations that weighs much with me. It isn't enough to persuade me that the Conservatives are likely to reach escape velocity from a hung Parliament.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    it could simply be people – rich Tories in this case – backing their opinions rather than the evidence

    One might ask how these Tory gamblers became rich.

    Probably not by following the polls.

    Jack W will know.

    If the rich Tory gamblers work in the City, then yes, they probably did get rich by the market equivalent of following the polls -- the trend is your friend.
    Most of those people lost their jobs when the trend stopped being their friend in '08, in '11, and in '13.

    No they didn't. The reason Michael Lewis writes books about contrarians who made billions betting against market bubbles is that they are very rare. For most traders, the best advice is to follow the ternd but keep your position liquid so you can get out if you need to. But even the ones who got stuck and lost heavily will probably have kept their jobs because (nearly) everybody else lost money too.

    And if their employers' risk control procedures turned out to be wholly ineffective, there is always the poor old taxpayer to bail them out.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Expanding on the first answer - if the economy is on track this time next year we will have just had the 2014 Autumn budget (statement) including goodies such as a reduction in fuel duty, a freeze (or 1% only) rise in train ticket prices, in short, the traditional giveaway budget.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Neil said:

    JackW's ARSE and Rod Crosby's whatever-he's-using-now V tim's the-tories-are-toxic-and-the-fops-are useless and OGH's 2010 Lib Dems.

    It would be a brave punter to pick between these two heavyweight tag teams!

    Back to the era of Suturday with ITV's World of Sport and tag team wrestling from Walthamstow ?!?

    OGH and "tim" in lycra one piece - Team Moderated

    JackW and Rod sporting swingback tartan capes - Team Hung (Parliament) .... Oh er missus ...

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Icarus I'm in Hungary at present. Fuel prices have just been reduced by 10% and transport fares are going down.

    Have a guess when their general election is due.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815



    Perhaps the next election would be a good one for the Tories to lose, giving them a chance to weed out their "wets" and go into subsequent elections on a hard-right tax-cutting anti-welfare agenda in the knowledge that a minority Labour administration would quickly become so unpopular that the Tories could get in even if they promised to eat every baby in England.

    But the Coalition government have already committed to diet of babies for years to come. Where is the scope for an unannounced "hard-right tax-cutting anti-welfare agenda"?

    The current OBR EFO states the future fiscal path quite clearly:

    Our forecast implies that the UK’s budget deficit will have fallen by 11.1 per cent of GDP over the nine years from 2009-10 (around £180 billion in today’s terms). Around 80 per cent of the reduction is accounted for by lower public spending. This will take government consumption of goods and services – a rough proxy for day-to-day spending on public services and administration – to its smallest share of national income at least since 1948, when comparable National Accounts data are first available. The remaining 20 per cent of the drop in borrowing is accounted for by higher receipts, with the majority having taken place by 2012-13, largely as result of rises in the standard rate of VAT.

    The babies have already been ordered. All that remains is to choose the right sauces and pickles to assist digestion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    I suspect that there's a good deal in what Innocent Abroad writes, and, too, that it depends on when the Coalition breaks up. We know that as the law presently stands the election must be on the first Thursday in May 2015. If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year, then the Tories will be saying look what those wretched LibDems stopped us doing; how much better off would we be? Meanwhile the LibDems will be saying look what we've stopped that lot doing.
    In that case, and if, as I still suspect, Clegg goes at the same time, it's quite likely that a lot of the "former" LibDems will return to the fold, reducing Labours overall lead.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year

    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    A lot of people will need to start feeling much better off than they do now. Otherwise, the ony outcome I can see is Ed M moving across town from Primrose Hill to 10 Dowining Street for the start of the summer 2015.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    antifrank said:

    The economy is the only one of those considerations that weighs much with me. It isn't enough to persuade me that the Conservatives are likely to reach escape velocity from a hung Parliament.

    A bit ambiguous that, Mr. frank, anti (as they say in Hungary).

    Are you saying that the Conservatives will not have done enough on the economy to persuade you?

    Or that you are not persuaded that success on the economy will be enough for the Tories to secure a majority?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @AveryLP The latter mainly.

    It may well be enough to secure them a similar seat tally to the one they currently enjoy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Elections are generally won by an opposition that occupies the centre ground. Cameron in 2010, Blair in 97, even Mrs T in 1979 had a fairly centrist manifesto and campaign. Tories who believe that after a short period a purged party would recapture government from Labour are deluded.

    Mind you my point also applies to Miliband in opposition.

    Personally I think a Miliband govt with a small working majority is the most likely outcome, but Observers of Jacks ARSE are usually right, so I would not put much stake on Miliband yet. The Tories have the wind in their sails, and Labour have an underwhelming front bench of discredited dullards with a blank sheet of paper. Electing a Miliband govt would be stupid, but I have been alive long enough to notice that just because something is predictably stupid does not mean that it won't happen. Jacks ARSE may not be producing anything substantial this time.

    I suspect a fair bit of double-counting in those five answers. What David (and other Tories) have to explain away - as well as a Labour majority - is a hung Parliament in which Labour are clearly the largest party. In that situation it would surely be suicidal for the Blue/Yellow coalition to seek to renew itself. And Ed Miliband - whose ratings would surely be improved by the mere fact of being in office - would not accept the Lib Dems as coalition partners, or at least not until they'd sacked Clegg (at a minimum).

    Perhaps the next election would be a good one for the Tories to lose, giving them a chance to weed out their "wets" and go into subsequent elections on a hard-right tax-cutting anti-welfare agenda in the knowledge that a minority Labour administration would quickly become so unpopular that the Tories could get in even if they promised to eat every baby in England.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Neil said:

    If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year

    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.
    Quite so.

    Their appears very little up-side to the parties splitting months before an election. They'll both want to take full credit for the economic recovery to the very last days of the campaign whilst differentiating themselves by their manifestos and the cut and thrust of the campaign.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all, if I am not mistaken we are getting a new Lord Ashcroft poll at 9pm this evening. He was tweeting about it yesterday.

    Polls at present are interesting but given so much is going to happen in the next 18 months let alone things which are not even presently on the radar, guessing the outcome of GE2015 is a brave pastime for anyone other than those who fully understand how odds and betting work. Betting doesn't interest me. It is the politics which brings me to this site. I look forward to the London centric chatterati getting egg on their collective noses once again as they fail to see what is happening beyond Islington chianti circles and the M25.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    The only reason,I repeat,the only reason,the Tories believe they have a chance is that they have tremendous media support.

    The Mail and Murdoch empire are both independently capable of creating a frenzy around election time around any issue,imagined or real,as they did in South Shields and Eastleigh by-elections.

    And Crosby will pick a dividing issue closer to the election to ram home his message.

    The trick for Labour is to consolidate some of this support with clear direction of travel,if not policy to guard against the oncoming storm.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    antifrank said:

    @AveryLP The latter mainly.

    It may well be enough to secure them a similar seat tally to the one they currently enjoy.

    That is certainly where I believe they should be.

    But we still have to account for the Lib Dems, (post referendum defeat) Scot Nats and UKIP anyone one of which alone could tilt the balance.

    I am minded of the old student trick of placing a kipper on the engine of a parting friend's car. It can make for a very unpleasant journey.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    A lot of people will need to start feeling much better off than they do now. Otherwise, the ony outcome I can see is Ed M moving across town from Primrose Hill to 10 Dowining Street for the start of the summer 2015.

    Not quite.

    The voters need to start thinking who'll they'll feel better off with.

    This is the 1992 scenario come again. The punters didn't much like the medicine but preferred the dull Doctor they knew rather than the silver tongued witch doctor they'd flirted with.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SMukesh said:

    The only reason,I repeat,the only reason,the Tories believe they have a chance is that they have tremendous media support.

    Surely the main reason for the Tories to be hopeful is that they're quite close to Labour in mid-term polls? Oh and Miliband's leader ratings stink.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Neil said:

    JackW's ARSE and Rod Crosby's whatever-he's-using-now V tim's the-tories-are-toxic-and-the-fops-are useless and OGH's 2010 Lib Dems.

    It would be a brave punter to pick between these two heavyweight tag teams!

    Perfectly summarised. My noble colleague and Rod for me. OGH was among those who had the LibDems winning lots of seats at GE 2010 and dismissed my claim they would fall back towards 50 seats which of course they did. Tim bless him just hates Tories.
  • Neil said:

    If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year

    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.
    Quite so.

    May I also address AveryLPs contention that "the babies have already been ordered. All that remains is to choose the right sauces and pickles to assist digestion"? It is probably easier to understand this by asking: "what will the A-level history students of 50 or 100 years time be saying about this?"

    I think they will make very little reference to partisan politics, arguing instead that the sacrifices of two world wars created a unique opportunity for the introduction of welfarism, in terms of social solidarity and the sense that "we" had done a lot for "them" and now "they" should do something for "us". But the beneficiaries were of course the "baby boomers" (of whom there are a fair few on this site, including OGH and myself) who - though we assuredly don't feel that way - have led privileged (and all too often relatively useless) lives. The other reason for the collapse of welfarism is that it requires a degree of social solidarity that can only be found in ethnically homogenous societies. The irony is of course is that white people were very willing to take out from the welfare state but a good deal less willing to put into it in terms of cleaning hospital floors and so forth. So projects like the NHS contained the seeds of their own eventual destruction.


  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Neil said:

    SMukesh said:

    The only reason,I repeat,the only reason,the Tories believe they have a chance is that they have tremendous media support.

    Surely the main reason for the Tories to be hopeful is that they're quite close to Labour in mid-term polls? Oh and Miliband's leader ratings stink.
    And why do you think that is?

    One remembers budget 2012 as Tory ratings went down pretty rapidly as the right wing papers turned against them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    it could simply be people – rich Tories in this case – backing their opinions rather than the evidence

    One might ask how these Tory gamblers became rich.

    Probably not by following the polls.

    Jack W will know.

    If the rich Tory gamblers work in the City, then yes, they probably did get rich by the market equivalent of following the polls -- the trend is your friend.
    Most of those people lost their jobs when the trend stopped being their friend in '08, in '11, and in '13.

    No they didn't. The reason Michael Lewis writes books about contrarians who made billions betting against market bubbles is that they are very rare. For most traders, the best advice is to follow the ternd but keep your position liquid so you can get out if you need to. But even the ones who got stuck and lost heavily will probably have kept their jobs because (nearly) everybody else lost money too.

    And if their employers' risk control procedures turned out to be wholly ineffective, there is always the poor old taxpayer to bail them out.
    There are broadly two types of people in The City who take risks with other peoples' money:

    1. Fund Managers (which encompasses both traditional long-only managers, and hedge fund managers)
    2. Traders at Investment Banks

    The average 'life expectancy' in fund management is something like three and a half years. Those that got it wrong - and who didn't have a long track record to rely on - have all lost their jobs. Sure, most will have been replaced by younger fodder who have yet to make their mistakes. And, of course, many who lose their jobs will be able to either trade down to a less prestigous organisation, or a smaller job (analyst rather than fund manager). But still, those for whom the trend 'was not their friend' are not doing the same thing they were doing five years ago.

    I don't know what the average 'life expectancy' of a trader at Goldman Sachs is. However, all the big investment banks have been cutting their in-house trading operations, as the regulatory authorities are demanding banks keep much more capital to cover potential trading losses. (Capital is expensive - the cost of equity at Goldman is probably 10%, so the blended average cost of capital is probably 7 or 8% for an vanilla equity trader, and higher for someone in derivatives.) Across the City (and New York too), the number of proprietary traders has probably dropped by at least 30% in the last five years, and probably a lot more.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I largely agree with you Innocent, and find your thoughts a useful addition to the site. The welfare states days are numbered, but it is not yet breathing its last. The end is probably more likely under Labour than Tories, probably under a second term Milliband govt, while the right hopelessly splits.

    I think Miliband is like Wilsonas leader, a shrewd tactition politically, but with little clear strategy, obssessed by internal enemies. Wilson did win 4 elections, but his governments were not notable for their successes. Wilson also was a better media performer and had the common touch.

    Neil said:

    If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year

    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.
    Quite so.

    May I also address AveryLPs contention that "the babies have already been ordered. All that remains is to choose the right sauces and pickles to assist digestion"? It is probably easier to understand this by asking: "what will the A-level history students of 50 or 100 years time be saying about this?"

    I think they will make very little reference to partisan politics, arguing instead that the sacrifices of two world wars created a unique opportunity for the introduction of welfarism, in terms of social solidarity and the sense that "we" had done a lot for "them" and now "they" should do something for "us". But the beneficiaries were of course the "baby boomers" (of whom there are a fair few on this site, including OGH and myself) who - though we assuredly don't feel that way - have led privileged (and all too often relatively useless) lives. The other reason for the collapse of welfarism is that it requires a degree of social solidarity that can only be found in ethnically homogenous societies. The irony is of course is that white people were very willing to take out from the welfare state but a good deal less willing to put into it in terms of cleaning hospital floors and so forth. So projects like the NHS contained the seeds of their own eventual destruction.


  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    A lot of people will need to start feeling much better off than they do now. Otherwise, the ony outcome I can see is Ed M moving across town from Primrose Hill to 10 Dowining Street for the start of the summer 2015.

    Not quite.

    The voters need to start thinking who'll they'll feel better off with.

    This is the 1992 scenario come again. The punters didn't much like the medicine but preferred the dull Doctor they knew rather than the silver tongued witch doctor they'd flirted with.

    1992 was Major as anti-Thatcher. Mrs T had become personally identified with the poll tax (and baby-eating generally). 1992 was the Tory equivalent of the Brown bounce, where Blair had become personally identified with Iraq. Brown and Major offered a fresh start because the most unpopular policies were associated with their predecessors and not their parties (Scotland excepted.)

    The problem for 2015 is that Cameron is not blamed for the current mess, so cannot bring Conservative supporters back by stepping down. Clegg can, since LibDems blame him for reneging on manifesto promises in order to prop up the conservatives, so maybe Cameron's best tactic for Tory victory is to agree a pact where both leaders resign.

    And once the Prime Minister has read the previous thread, he might be wondering who can replace Michael Gove, in hope of recapturing teachers' votes. This has already worked in health, where Jeremy Hunt is seen as less antagonistic and divisive than Andrew Lansley.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good morning, everyone.

    An interesting piece, and a slightly off-hand dismissal from Mr. Smithson, I felt.

    However, it's also interesting to recall the eye-bending picture yesterday which suggested that political opinions outweight mathematical reality when it comes to assessing situations. Perhaps we need to find a small panel of people who are intellectually sound but at the same time completely disinterested in politics. It would be interesting to see if they provide a useful guide (and to compare against the premise of this site, which is an objective, betting-led approach to political predictions).
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Incidentally many happy returns to the author of our Saturday morning threads Mr Herdson. 21 again David :)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014

    Neil said:

    If the coalition hangs together until Easter 2015 (Good Friday's April 3rd, then I suspect that there's won't be time for either partner to establish clear water between them. However, if, as I suspect the Coalition breaks up around this time next year

    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.
    Quite so.

    May I also address AveryLPs contention that "the babies have already been ordered. All that remains is to choose the right sauces and pickles to assist digestion"? It is probably easier to understand this by asking: "what will the A-level history students of 50 or 100 years time be saying about this?"

    I think they will make very little reference to partisan politics, arguing instead that the sacrifices of two world wars created a unique opportunity for the introduction of welfarism, in terms of social solidarity and the sense that "we" had done a lot for "them" and now "they" should do something for "us". But the beneficiaries were of course the "baby boomers" (of whom there are a fair few on this site, including OGH and myself) who - though we assuredly don't feel that way - have led privileged (and all too often relatively useless) lives. The other reason for the collapse of welfarism is that it requires a degree of social solidarity that can only be found in ethnically homogenous societies. The irony is of course is that white people were very willing to take out from the welfare state but a good deal less willing to put into it in terms of cleaning hospital floors and so forth. So projects like the NHS contained the seeds of their own eventual destruction.


    IA

    Today's wars are not being fought with machine guns and tanks. They are global trade wars.

    The Tommies of 2014 are threatened by loss of their jobs and self respect, not their lives.

    This will have political consequences but not in a common cause justified by a lost generation. The effect will be polarising rather than unifying.

    But back to 2015 election politics.

    The OBR projection of the current government's fiscal plans is not predicting the end of welfarism. There will certainly be casualties, but social benefits, health and education will not be among them. Spend on such 'welfare' will be the among the only services to retain their share of GDP.

    The Cameroons are misunderstood. They are not so much eating babies as poking them with their forks while breastfeeding.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Good morning, everyone.

    An interesting piece, and a slightly off-hand dismissal from Mr. Smithson, I felt.

    However, it's also interesting to recall the eye-bending picture yesterday which suggested that political opinions outweight mathematical reality when it comes to assessing situations. Perhaps we need to find a small panel of people who are intellectually sound but at the same time completely disinterested in politics. It would be interesting to see if they provide a useful guide (and to compare against the premise of this site, which is an objective, betting-led approach to political predictions).

    Good to see the word 'disinterested' used in its proper sense for once. The problem with such a panel, of course, is that very quickly anyone who did not agree with its findings would endeavour to uncover the 'hidden interests' supposedly informing them.
  • Avery, it appears you have not noticed that university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945. Social benefits in real terms are now lower than they were in the 1940s, and people entering the labour market this year will need to make their own pension provision, since neither the State nor their employers have the slightest intention of doing so. They will need to, but they will be unable to.

    Because - as you rightly say - we are fighting and badly losing a global trade war. And as you also rightly say the effect will be polarising. Indeed, a minority Miliband government will quickly find itself at 20-25% in the polls as race replaces class as the primary source of political division.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Lord Ashcroft just tweeted its 10pm tonight
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Abroad, in the scenario you suggest are you referring to race as a divisive issue due to large scale migration and the increasing rise in the gap between the rich and poor (or, perhaps to put it a better way, the thinning of the middle class)?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    antifrank said:

    The economy is the only one of those considerations that weighs much with me. It isn't enough to persuade me that the Conservatives are likely to reach escape velocity from a hung Parliament.

    Bear in mind that even the bookies have Labour as favourites to win most seats, though not by all that much (it's a shame we don't have the line-betting markets any more, so we could see precisely where the 'par' totals are set). However, it's a long way from roughly what currently implied by the odds to what's implied by the polls.

    Having said that, Edmund's point about RichardN's case that the odds for individual seats is out of line with the odds for the totals as a whole is right.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cook and Co trying to keep tour costs down, by not qualifying for bonuses, and by trying to finish the match in 3 days.

  • Mr. Abroad, in the scenario you suggest are you referring to race as a divisive issue due to large scale migration and the increasing rise in the gap between the rich and poor (or, perhaps to put it a better way, the thinning of the middle class)?

    Indeed I am.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Lord Ashcroft just tweeted its 10pm tonight

    I've got the embargoed copy. Very interesting.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014

    Avery, it appears you have not noticed that university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945. Social benefits in real terms are now lower than they were in the 1940s, and people entering the labour market this year will need to make their own pension provision, since neither the State nor their employers have the slightest intention of doing so. They will need to, but they will be unable to.

    Because - as you rightly say - we are fighting and badly losing a global trade war. And as you also rightly say the effect will be polarising. Indeed, a minority Miliband government will quickly find itself at 20-25% in the polls as race replaces class as the primary source of political division.

    IA

    I am not persuaded by your argument that race will replace class as the primary source of political division. One of the benefits of globalism, free movement of labour and immigration is that over the medium to long term, it has the potential to reduce racial tension. It is easy to demonise Romanians from the distance and comfort of one's home but when the Romanian becomes your neighbour or work colleague such hatred is exorcised.

    Class distinctions will persist, and may even for short periods become co-aligned with race, but the persisting result of globalisation will be the creation of new classes based on economic losers and winners.

    On university education and pensions (and railway season tickets and household energy prices etc), matching funding to use is an unavoidable response to heightened global competition and reduced economic strength. It is also the 'right' answer. But the contract with the contributors must require the government to compensate for the burden by radically reducing the share of national output taken by its other services. Making students pay for the social and economic advantage of obtaining their degrees is only reasonable if the 'savings' made are not replaced with additional expenditure.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Has anyone mentioned Janan Ganesh's take on this?

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/736d33cc-69cb-11e3-89ce-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2pMSTYlLC

    "Given that so few saw the recovery coming, forecasting its political implications would be a roll of the dice. But one thing is becoming clearer: if the economy continues to improve, Labour will either lose next year’s general election or defy history. Precedent holds that no party can win an election without the trust of voters on the question of either leadership or economic management. Labour trails the Conservatives on both counts."

    "So the real question is whether 2015 will be a conventional election, in which case the Tories will probably at least end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, or whether it is the first to take place in a new kind of polity where leadership and economic competence are neither necessary nor sufficient to get elected. In other words, the decisive variable is not the politicians up for election, but politics itself."

    As usual, it's a very smart article by Mr Ganesh. Since the four most expensive words in English are "This time it's different", I'm not expecting a new kind of polity. It's an article that all should read.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Saw ITV News at Ten last night and thought the Chinese Ambassador's words worth mentioning:
    http://www.itv.com/news/2014-01-03/china-japan-liu-xiaoming/

    Basically, he described Japan as being like Lord Voldemort and Nazi Germany. In a less tabloid line, he also said that whilst China was pacifist it would retaliate if attacked.

    The new leader of China, whose name escapes me (Deng Xiaoping, maybe?) was said to be interested in building up China's military, and that certainly seems to be occurring. It's also worth mentioning that Japan and China are the 3rd and 2nd largest economies in the world, respectively. Any war could be rather serious.

    However, China's also making a land (sea?) grab in South Asia, effectively stealing by threat of force land (rich in resources) from the poorer, weaker island nations there. I'm not sure if the disputed islands between China and Japan have any resources, or if they're simply a matter of pride for both sides.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Avery, it appears you have not noticed that university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945. Social benefits in real terms are now lower than they were in the 1940s, and people entering the labour market this year will need to make their own pension provision, since neither the State nor their employers have the slightest intention of doing so. They will need to, but they will be unable to.

    Because - as you rightly say - we are fighting and badly losing a global trade war. And as you also rightly say the effect will be polarising. Indeed, a minority Miliband government will quickly find itself at 20-25% in the polls as race replaces class as the primary source of political division.

    "university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945."

    Hmmm. In 1950 under 20,000 people got a degree. In 2011 that was 350,000. The number of higher degrees increased from 2,500 to nearly 200,000.

    So you're wrong, unless you have a very odd definition of 'ordinary' people.

    Labour wanted half of young people to go to university. They never quite managed it, but you cannot have such a massive increase and keep the same funding model. Something had to give, as Labour showed when they first introduced tuition fees.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    Interesting article.

    There is nothing to suggest in the polls or in recent council or by-election performance that the Tories are going to gain seats in 2015. In 1992, the last Tory majority, the Tories held Eastleigh. There is no sign whatsoever of that happening. Meanwhile, there is every sign that the Tories will lose marginal seats to Labour.

    At present, it looks likely that in 2015 the Tories will fall back. The key questions are...

    * How far will the Tories fall back? (Can they still be the largest party?)
    * Will a Lib-Dem collapse stem/reverse the tide?

    And then...

    * What governing options are possible?


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Jonathan, also worth mentioning that it's far too early to make predictions, because a Yes in Scotland would dramatically change things. Well, maybe it's not too early to make predictions but a Yes and a No prediction is needed.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Jonathan said:

    Interesting article.

    There is nothing to suggest in the polls or in recent council or by-election performance that the Tories are going to gain seats in 2015. In 1992, the last Tory majority, the Tories held Eastleigh. There is no sign whatsoever of that happening. Meanwhile, there is every sign that the Tories will lose marginal seats to Labour.

    At present, it looks likely that in 2015 the Tories will fall back. The key questions are...

    * How far will the Tories fall back? (Can they still be the largest party?)
    * Will a Lib-Dem collapse stem/reverse the tide?

    And then...

    * What governing options are possible?


    "So to sum up - wishful thinking".

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Avery, it appears you have not noticed that university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945. Social benefits in real terms are now lower than they were in the 1940s, and people entering the labour market this year will need to make their own pension provision, since neither the State nor their employers have the slightest intention of doing so. They will need to, but they will be unable to.

    Because - as you rightly say - we are fighting and badly losing a global trade war. And as you also rightly say the effect will be polarising. Indeed, a minority Miliband government will quickly find itself at 20-25% in the polls as race replaces class as the primary source of political division.

    "university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945."

    Hmmm. In 1950 under 20,000 people got a degree. In 2011 that was 350,000. The number of higher degrees increased from 2,500 to nearly 200,000.

    So you're wrong, unless you have a very odd definition of 'ordinary' people.

    Labour wanted half of young people to go to university. They never quite managed it, but you cannot have such a massive increase and keep the same funding model. Something had to give, as Labour showed when they first introduced tuition fees.
    Ironically, depending on what assumptions are made about future repayment rates (remember these are income-contingent loans) the current system might actually be more expensive than the old student grants.

    Even within the Conservative Party, there was a strong lobby for a graduate tax rather than loans (the main drawback being the word "tax").
  • Avery (8.35am): a degree in the 1940s and a degree to-day are two very different things. A lot of vocational qualifications have been re-labelled, for one thing. Also, until fairly recently a degree in most subjects was a job ticket. No longer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,590
    JackW said:



    Not quite.

    The voters need to start thinking who'll they'll feel better off with.

    This is the 1992 scenario come again. The punters didn't much like the medicine but preferred the dull Doctor they knew rather than the silver tongued witch doctor they'd flirted with.

    One slight problem is that even in 1992 the conservatives lost seats, although it wasn't enough seats to lose the election as they previously had a large majority. This time around if the conservatives lose any seats it adds another factor towards a Labour victory.

    For the tories to remain in power they need to win more seats in 2015 than in 2010. And that looks incredibly unlikely...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned Janan Ganesh's take on this?

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/736d33cc-69cb-11e3-89ce-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2pMSTYlLC

    "Given that so few saw the recovery coming, forecasting its political implications would be a roll of the dice. But one thing is becoming clearer: if the economy continues to improve, Labour will either lose next year’s general election or defy history. Precedent holds that no party can win an election without the trust of voters on the question of either leadership or economic management. Labour trails the Conservatives on both counts."

    "So the real question is whether 2015 will be a conventional election, in which case the Tories will probably at least end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, or whether it is the first to take place in a new kind of polity where leadership and economic competence are neither necessary nor sufficient to get elected. In other words, the decisive variable is not the politicians up for election, but politics itself."

    As usual, it's a very smart article by Mr Ganesh. Since the four most expensive words in English are "This time it's different", I'm not expecting a new kind of polity. It's an article that all should read.

    Some of us did notice a recovery underway back in early March:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/09/are-those-green-shoots/

    Following on Ganesh's logic, perhaps those of us who did might be given a little credit in our take on the effects for 2015 beyond 'wishful thinking'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. L, isn't the main drawback with a graduate tax being how you do it in a way which is both fair and collectible[sp]?

    If someone makes the equivalent of £20k per year then taxing them extra on the basis of their degree giving them more earning potential seems unfair. And what if someone moves abroad and earns the equivalent of £300k?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    What an excellent article by David Herdson and such a terrible shame that Mike Smithson cannot resist pitching straight in with a 'wishful thinking' comment. Like a lot of liberals he obviously doesn't like people to have opposing opinions, even when well-reasoned and thought through. It is the main reason this site has plummeted, but instead of listening he can just watch the number of hits and comments disappear until it will be too late and pb will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

    David, I think you can add some other factors. One of the main ones is something you hinted at re. Swingback and churn. The reason there has been so little this time is that there is no Election speculation. No one cares at all about the General Election because there is no speculation that it will happen. In previous parliaments at this time there would have been endless speculation by now as to whether Cameron would call a 2014 spring election, and with that comes the sharpening of people's voting intention. With a fixed term parliament not only is everyone utterly bored by politics, they are also unfocused about an election.

    It certainly isn't wishful thinking to think the Conservatives will win. Labour are not in a strong position for an Opposition and in many ways all the cards, including the incumbency factor, lie with Cameron. With a surging economy and evidence of a catch-up in perception of well-being this is rapidly looking like an odds-on election for the Conservatives to win.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705

    Mr. Jonathan, also worth mentioning that it's far too early to make predictions, because a Yes in Scotland would dramatically change things. Well, maybe it's not too early to make predictions but a Yes and a No prediction is needed.

    Personally I think the occupant of no10 after May 2015 is little more than a coin-toss at the moment. Neither party broke away this year.

    Labour are far from dominant.

    The Tories look a bit tired. Far from extending their reach, they seem to be taking a defensive strategy to minimise losses.

    Blair/Major could do that defending a three figure majority. Cameron does not have that luxury.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    There will be lots of future scenarios up for consideration by Scots who actually decide to vote on 18th September. It is always said for the SNP the perfect scenario is a solid Tory lead in the UK opinion polls. Speaking personally, if I believed Labour might win the 2015 GE I would be tempted to vote YES.

    I would rather live in an Independent Scotland run by the SNP than a UK ripped apart once more by an incompetent Labour government. Gordon Brown wrecked my retirement plans, Ed Miliband would probably wreck what's left of my working life.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. eek, I agree, although there are some interesting factors in the next election:
    1) Ed Miliband is wonkier than a rickety fence next to a sinkhole
    2) The Scottish situation will either have a small or a colossal impact
    3) We have the first coalition for decades which may well lead to weird results here and there
    4) Like a talented dancer, UKIP are climbing the polls with ease but it remains to be seen if they'll end up sliding down again as the General Election comes
    5) The eurozone crisis isn't resolved. It can't be. It remains to be seen when the next flare up will be, and the impact in both economic and political terms.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,590

    Mr. L, isn't the main drawback with a graduate tax being how you do it in a way which is both fair and collectible[sp]?

    If someone makes the equivalent of £20k per year then taxing them extra on the basis of their degree giving them more earning potential seems unfair. And what if someone moves abroad and earns the equivalent of £300k?

    Which is why my current advice to 18 year olds is unless its a Russell group uni look for an apprenticeship rather than risking 3 years and 50k of debt.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Avery (8.35am): a degree in the 1940s and a degree to-day are two very different things. A lot of vocational qualifications have been re-labelled, for one thing. Also, until fairly recently a degree in most subjects was a job ticket. No longer.

    True. But if we wish to survive in the global economy our only option is to upskill and compete. And this requires a much greater proportion of our population to be better educated to higher levels.

    It may no longer be a job ticket but self-financing is likely to lead to higher levels of application and a more determined alignment of degree choice to employment prospects. People spending their own money tend to be more demanding of value.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Lord Ashcroft just tweeted its 10pm tonight

    I've got the embargoed copy. Very interesting.
    Mike "interesting" Smithson returns for his first outing of the year .... are we sure he's not related to snooker legend Steve Davis? .... we should also remind ourselves that they both do have the cue ball in common and that unlike Nigel Farage they know an unused cue belongs back in the rack and not in the back ....

    rear passage bell just rung, Excuse me a moment ....



  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I don't believe the Tories can win a majority at GE2015 but I do think they can win the biggest vote share and the most seats, just.

    I also think the economy will have the biggest impact on voting intentions. Given Vince Cable's musings recently, I suspect the economy is going to improve considerably over the next 12 months. Cable doesn't appear happy with the prospect and any improvement seems to be matched by his spite about it. He strikes me as a man seriously disturbed by the prospect of the Tories doing well at GE2015 and almost openly hostile to it.
  • @Antifrank - the one thing we can say with absolute certainty about GE2015 is that it will be different. What we don't know is how. To win, both Labour and the Tories have to defy precedent.

    As I remember it - though I could be wrong - the Tories were ahead on leadership and the economy in 2010, but failed to get an overall majority.

    To me, it remains very difficult to see beyond another inconclusive outcome. I cannot for the life of me decide who'll be the biggest party. What I am almost certain of, though, is that Labour's vote share will increase outside Scotland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Avery, it appears you have not noticed that university education is now effectively privatized and increasingly out of reach of "ordinary" people just as it was before 1945. Social benefits in real terms are now lower than they were in the 1940s, and people entering the labour market this year will need to make their own pension provision, since neither the State nor their employers have the slightest intention of doing so. They will need to, but they will be unable to.

    Because - as you rightly say - we are fighting and badly losing a global trade war. And as you also rightly say the effect will be polarising. Indeed, a minority Miliband government will quickly find itself at 20-25% in the polls as race replaces class as the primary source of political division.

    This is unduly pessimistic. If you look at China, which has dominated the manufacture and export of certain classes of goods over the last decade, their competitive advantage is being eroded as they become richer. At Foxconn (makers of the iPhone, among other things), there have been three 10% across the board pay rises since March 2012. And still they are struggling to retain staff.

    No longer is manufacturing in China a sure fire way for a business to get its costs down. In the US, thanks to low gas and electricity (and even low oil, although that is I suspect transient) prices, energy intensive manufacturing is coming back on-shore. It's simply not sensible to build in China, where wage and electricity costs are rising (and so is staff turnover). Apple makes the Mac Pro in the US.

    We see this in many areas: ten years ago, China was going to be the hub of semiconductor contract manufacturing. But Taiwan (TSMC) and soon Intel in the US, are hammering them - despite the 10s of billions invested in new chip fabrication plants. Between 2011 and 2012, exports fell from 29% to 27% of Chinese GDP. Exports now make a smaller contribution to China's economy than they do Spain's or the UK.

    If we pursue moderately sensible policies in the UK (Germany is a good model, here), then we can start to develop a moderately successful mixed economy here. What we should not do is randomly panic and start flailing around.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Where the economy is concerned it's numbers schnumbers. If the squeezed middle don't see improvements in their own micro-economies, as I don't in mine at the moment, then they are unlikely to vote for more of the same. Labour must put together a populist message that resonates with people who are seeing all the downs of austerity but none of the ups of an improving economy.
  • Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, also worth mentioning that it's far too early to make predictions, because a Yes in Scotland would dramatically change things. Well, maybe it's not too early to make predictions but a Yes and a No prediction is needed.

    Personally I think the occupant of no10 after May 2015 is little more than a coin-toss at the moment. Neither party broke away this year.

    Labour are far from dominant.

    The Tories look a bit tired. Far from extending their reach, they seem to be taking a defensive strategy to minimise losses.

    Blair/Major could do that defending a three figure majority. Cameron does not have that luxury.

    The Tories are gambling everything on reeling in UKIPers. They are clearly not interested in appealing to potential LDs or Labour voters. In the same way, Labour has given up on those who could vote Tory. There is a big space in the centre ground, which the LDs - if they were Cleggless - might be able to exploit.

  • Agreed, David.

    The punters have a subtler appreciation of the probabilities than the polls at this stage.

    There may be a smidgeon of value in Labour's price but I wouldn't commit large sums at the moment. The Euros should give us a good steer. I'll be holding back until then.
  • antifrank said:





    Some of us did notice a recovery underway back in early March:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/09/are-those-green-shoots/

    ...perhaps those of us who did might be given a little credit in our take on the effects for 2015 beyond 'wishful thinking'.

    Oh gosh. I forgot. You're always right about everything, and the only chance the UK has against the Asian tigers is for everyone to the left of Theresa May to be taken out and shot by this time yesterday.

    What I admire about you most, David, is your humility. Or not.

    Right: now it's time for me to go shopping. And the Tories can have me banned from the site for being abusive (and don't pretend you don't want to)...

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Charles said:

    I haven't read the thread yet as just heading to bed, but looks like a typically thoughtful piece, thanks David.

    My view would be that people who bet on politics enjoy the process and the detail of the game. The idea that a large chunk of voters would shift to Labour - which effectively has given them their stable 37-40 share (and hence the strength of their position) simple *because* of the formation of the coalition sticks in the craw somewhat: no willingness to give the Coalition the chance to prove themselves or to see whether the Lib Dems could moderate the baby-eating Tories (perhaps only to an arm and a leg?). Just a viscarel reaction.

    If the 2015 election was determined as simply as this, it means that all the political strategising and analysis that has gone on since them was pointless. But because "experts" like to think they are more sophisticated then there is probably a bias to assuming that the simple answer is wrong.

    I think that's right. Clegg never carried more than half his voters with him from day 1 of the Coalition - it overstates it to say they hate him, they merely don't agree with him. It carries over to a more favourable view of Miliband and an indifference (in voting intention terms) to good economic news. Since it's been sustained for more than three years, it's reasonable to assume it's a settled view and my doorstep experience suggests that this group is more determined to vote Labour than any other group (even average regular Labour supporters).

    That makes the swingback theory difficult, since there hasn't been much other swing to go back. As David says, the other swing has been to UKIP, and Cameron is clearly trying to get some of that, but they are on the whole tough cookies (many of them former non-voters who think we all suck) and not easy to seduce.

    What is underpinning the Tory hopes is the belief that the economy will recover steadily and voters will attribute this to their management and think they'd better stick to it. Both parts of this look like wishful thinking - the recovery is clearly happening but will be bumpy, and voters seem unwilling to credit the Government with having had much to do with it, and if anything are irritated by the vainglorious claims from Number 11 and over-enthusiastic local MPs. The impression that there is a wonderful party going on to which one hasn't been invited is not appealing.

  • @rcs1000 - and the other thing you are seeing in China and other Asian countries is a rising welfare bill. It turns out people there like low cost healthcare, tertiary education, pensions etc too.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited January 2014

    Where the economy is concerned it's numbers schnumbers. If the squeezed middle don't see improvements in their own micro-economies, as I don't in mine at the moment, then they are unlikely to vote for more of the same. Labour must put together a populist message that resonates with people who are seeing all the downs of austerity but none of the ups of an improving economy.

    Then Labour will need to put forward a message based on borrowing and spending money now. But how can borrowing money (which is essentially the only other route forward) improve the middle to long term chances of us all being better off?

    I'm all for bright ideas, but Labour have said nothing to me to suggest they have a clever way out of the deficit/debt calamity. Most of us became vastly better off between 1997-2007 (me particularly so, being young and buying a three-bedroom house for £40k) because of the availability of cheap borrowing. The drying up of that money has meant a struggle across the board, probably a 10-year struggle. And my overriding opinion of the whole debt crisis is that a) I was the one who benefited from cheap borrowing so b) I should be the one who suffers during the downturn.

    I do not accept that we can borrow now and push the 'cost of living' problems on to the next generation. And I do not accept that borrowing now would improve the cost of living for the next generation.

    And this - I think - is what Ed Miliband is angling at and arguing for.

    I know he has a difficult circle to square, needing to issue a resonant, hopeful message to voters, and to please the unions (a horribly difficult tax) when he knows in his heart of hearts that there is no money available, and that the deficit/debt problems he'll face, if elected, will still be gigantic.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    O/T: What should newspapers do if they get a bizarre and horrifying story that they can't verify? Interesting piece that goes beyond the story itself in:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/03/no-kim-jong-un-probably-didnt-feed-his-uncle-to-120-hungry-dogs/

    I guess the correct answer is "Report it with lots of caveats about the source." If we discount unbelievably horrific stories altogether we miss the worst cases (Nazi concentrations camps, Pol Pot, etc.). If we report them all as apparent fact we devalue the medium and dull the senses of readers. But cautious reporting is seen as so last century...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. L, isn't the main drawback with a graduate tax being how you do it in a way which is both fair and collectible[sp]?

    If someone makes the equivalent of £20k per year then taxing them extra on the basis of their degree giving them more earning potential seems unfair. And what if someone moves abroad and earns the equivalent of £300k?

    It depends what you mean by fair. An extra half a per cent on higher rate income tax, perhaps? That is progressive (and, like the current system, income-contingent).

    No, the main drawback really was the word tax.

    Universities like the current system because they get big wodges of cash up front to invest in laboratories, research fellowships and record salaries for vice-chancellors. A future government might want to run down universities and spend the graduate tax income on, well, anything else.

    Whether the fees and loans system is ideal for the rest of us, even in crude financial terms, is less clear.
  • Off topic, amongst the carnage and the detritus of England's tour of Australia it does seem that in Ben Stokes a potential world class all rounder has been unearthed. All we need now are five decent batsmen to go in before him and a wicketkeeper and four bowlers to follow!

    More seriously, injuries permitting I'd expect to see Cook, Bell, Root, Stokes, Prior and Broad line up for the first test of the summer. Pietersen will be there too if he has not decided to throw in his lot with the IPL. So four places at least - a spinner, a quick and two batters - up for grabs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Where the economy is concerned it's numbers schnumbers. If the squeezed middle don't see improvements in their own micro-economies, as I don't in mine at the moment, then they are unlikely to vote for more of the same. Labour must put together a populist message that resonates with people who are seeing all the downs of austerity but none of the ups of an improving economy.

    This is a long-cycle game. The changes that Schroeder made to the German labour laws laid the groundwork for Germany's subsequent prosperity - but it was Mrs Merkel who harvested what he sowed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    O/T: What should newspapers do if they get a bizarre and horrifying story that they can't verify? Interesting piece that goes beyond the story itself in:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/03/no-kim-jong-un-probably-didnt-feed-his-uncle-to-120-hungry-dogs/

    I guess the correct answer is "Report it with lots of caveats about the source." If we discount unbelievably horrific stories altogether we miss the worst cases (Nazi concentrations camps, Pol Pot, etc.). If we report them all as apparent fact we devalue the medium and dull the senses of readers. But cautious reporting is seen as so last century...

    Kim Jong Un seems to be a modern Caligula
  • What I have learned on OGH site [iii]:
    ...unless one voluntarily joined the armed forces, the risk of being killed by enemy action was microscopic in the last 70 years....
    Plastic-Danes that believe that the soldiers of Korea/Kenya/Malaya were volunteers. Thank feck that [under] Norwegian bridges will have new tenants in 2015...!

    :its-hassel-time:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil said:


    I dont understand why people think UK coalitions will be any different to any coalitions we see in other countries where ministers stay in place until the election. Why on earth would the Lib Dems all resign next Jan or next Easter? These parties are going to hang together until the end.

    This is the thrust of Ming Campbell's big new idea. He wants ministers to remain in post, but the parties to effectively split, with non-ministerial MPs from each party working on their next plans.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/428352/ming-campbell-crossing-the-finishing-line.thtml
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:


    This is unduly pessimistic. If you look at China, which has dominated the manufacture and export of certain classes of goods over the last decade, their competitive advantage is being eroded as they become richer. At Foxconn (makers of the iPhone, among other things), there have been three 10% across the board pay rises since March 2012. And still they are struggling to retain staff.

    No longer is manufacturing in China a sure fire way for a business to get its costs down. In the US, thanks to low gas and electricity (and even low oil, although that is I suspect transient) prices, energy intensive manufacturing is coming back on-shore. It's simply not sensible to build in China, where wage and electricity costs are rising (and so is staff turnover). Apple makes the Mac Pro in the US.

    We see this in many areas: ten years ago, China was going to be the hub of semiconductor contract manufacturing. But Taiwan (TSMC) and soon Intel in the US, are hammering them - despite the 10s of billions invested in new chip fabrication plants. Between 2011 and 2012, exports fell from 29% to 27% of Chinese GDP. Exports now make a smaller contribution to China's economy than they do Spain's or the UK.

    If we pursue moderately sensible policies in the UK (Germany is a good model, here), then we can start to develop a moderately successful mixed economy here. What we should not do is randomly panic and start flailing around.

    Two other factors. First, increasing concern that shifting manufacturing to China was to hand over your intellectual property to official Chinese Government spies. Second, resentment in America that decent, middle class people who'd played by the rules, studied hard and got their degrees, were being shafted by as their jobs were offshored (whereas over here, people seem more inclined to blame Eastern Europeans).

    We in Britain should look to Germany where manufacturing and engineering are still prized (and even to India to see why they can make cars here when British companies could not). Also to the United States to look at entrepreneurship and hidden government subsidies and protectionism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Charles said:

    I haven't read the thread yet as just heading to bed, but looks like a typically thoughtful piece, thanks David.

    My view would be that people who bet on politics enjoy the process and the detail of the game. The idea that a large chunk of voters would shift to Labour - which effectively has given them their stable 37-40 share (and hence the strength of their position) simple *because* of the formation of the coalition sticks in the craw somewhat: no willingness to give the Coalition the chance to prove themselves or to see whether the Lib Dems could moderate the baby-eating Tories (perhaps only to an arm and a leg?). Just a viscarel reaction.

    If the 2015 election was determined as simply as this, it means that all the political strategising and analysis that has gone on since them was pointless. But because "experts" like to think they are more sophisticated then there is probably a bias to assuming that the simple answer is wrong.

    I think that's right. Clegg never carried more than half his voters with him from day 1 of the Coalition - it overstates it to say they hate him, they merely don't agree with him. It carries over to a more favourable view of Miliband and an indifference (in voting intention terms) to good economic news. Since it's been sustained for more than three years, it's reasonable to assume it's a settled view and my doorstep experience suggests that this group is more determined to vote Labour than any other group (even average regular Labour supporters).

    That makes the swingback theory difficult, since there hasn't been much other swing to go back. As David says, the other swing has been to UKIP, and Cameron is clearly trying to get some of that, but they are on the whole tough cookies (many of them former non-voters who think we all suck) and not easy to seduce.

    What is underpinning the Tory hopes is the belief that the economy will recover steadily and voters will attribute this to their management and think they'd better stick to it. Both parts of this look like wishful thinking - the recovery is clearly happening but will be bumpy, and voters seem unwilling to credit the Government with having had much to do with it, and if anything are irritated by the vainglorious claims from Number 11 and over-enthusiastic local MPs. The impression that there is a wonderful party going on to which one hasn't been invited is not appealing.

    Yougov's trackers on the economy do show the government is getting some credit for the improving situation. Approval for their handling of the economy has risen from c.30% 12 months ago, to c.40% now. Overall approval for the government has risen too.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:


    This is unduly pessimistic. If you look at China, which has dominated the manufacture and export of certain classes of goods over the last decade, their competitive advantage is being eroded as they become richer. At Foxconn (makers of the iPhone, among other things), there have been three 10% across the board pay rises since March 2012. And still they are struggling to retain staff.

    No longer is manufacturing in China a sure fire way for a business to get its costs down. In the US, thanks to low gas and electricity (and even low oil, although that is I suspect transient) prices, energy intensive manufacturing is coming back on-shore. It's simply not sensible to build in China, where wage and electricity costs are rising (and so is staff turnover). Apple makes the Mac Pro in the US.

    We see this in many areas: ten years ago, China was going to be the hub of semiconductor contract manufacturing. But Taiwan (TSMC) and soon Intel in the US, are hammering them - despite the 10s of billions invested in new chip fabrication plants. Between 2011 and 2012, exports fell from 29% to 27% of Chinese GDP. Exports now make a smaller contribution to China's economy than they do Spain's or the UK.

    If we pursue moderately sensible policies in the UK (Germany is a good model, here), then we can start to develop a moderately successful mixed economy here. What we should not do is randomly panic and start flailing around.

    Two other factors. First, increasing concern that shifting manufacturing to China was to hand over your intellectual property to official Chinese Government spies. Second, resentment in America that decent, middle class people who'd played by the rules, studied hard and got their degrees, were being shafted by as their jobs were offshored (whereas over here, people seem more inclined to blame Eastern Europeans).

    We in Britain should look to Germany where manufacturing and engineering are still prized (and even to India to see why they can make cars here when British companies could not). Also to the United States to look at entrepreneurship and hidden government subsidies and protectionism.
    I agree with your second point (about looking to Germany).

    With regards the first point - let's not forget, it was those same decent middle class people who were making the decisions that destroyed their own jobs. They were the people that made the decision they would rather save a few dollars, and buy from a company that manufactured the goods in China.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Sean_F said:

    O/T: What should newspapers do if they get a bizarre and horrifying story that they can't verify? Interesting piece that goes beyond the story itself in:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/03/no-kim-jong-un-probably-didnt-feed-his-uncle-to-120-hungry-dogs/

    I guess the correct answer is "Report it with lots of caveats about the source." If we discount unbelievably horrific stories altogether we miss the worst cases (Nazi concentrations camps, Pol Pot, etc.). If we report them all as apparent fact we devalue the medium and dull the senses of readers. But cautious reporting is seen as so last century...

    Kim Jong Un seems to be a modern Caligula
    Only without the charming love of horses...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited January 2014
    Good morning.

    @foxinsoxuk
    Elections are generally won by an opposition that occupies the centre ground. Cameron in 2010, Blair in 97, even Mrs T in 1979 had a fairly centrist manifesto and campaign. Tories who believe that after a short period a purged party would recapture government from Labour are deluded.
    =====
    This may be true, but where is the centre ground today?
    I believe there is a movement rightwards today in Britain. And that movement is to a more open and libertarian society; hence the UKIP surge that is still gaining momentum.

    The centre ground is shifting.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeK said:


    The centre ground is shifting.

    Where does the rising falling cost of gym membership fall on the left/right spectrum?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited January 2014
    Re. Nick Palmer

    One of the biggest (but by no means only) psephological mistakes of Mike Smithson's approach to this is to deal in voters as percentages and with it the fallacy of churn. The General Election will be decided by numbers: actual voters, some of whom voted before, some of whom didn't, some of whom will switch. The difference between 28 million people voting and 30 million people voting is huge in terms of effect on result, the more so when many of those will not have voted in 2010, and many of those who did either lie or forget how they voted because unlike here they don't live in a Westminster bubble. This is why narrative is so important. Once you generate the Big Mo it's unstoppable because you attract support from those who are far, far, away from VI opinion polling. The narrative is undeniably moving the Conservatives's way. The real question is how much it will continue to do so. Were the election in 2014 I'd rate their chances much lower, but spring 2015? You'd be a fool to bet against them now, whatever Mike Smithson says.

    And, Nick, I'd be a little bit circumspect about criticising local MP's who, after all, kept their jobs.

    p.s. Boris bringing home the bacon for his 'friend' Dave … can see it now.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited January 2014
    Re. RCS:

    "We in Britain should look to Germany where manufacturing and engineering are still prized (and even to India to see why they can make cars here when British companies could not). Also to the United States to look at entrepreneurship and hidden government subsidies and protectionism."

    Would that be the same Germany whose economy we are set to overtake?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25519110
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Corporeal In the Hundred Years War and the Spanish Armada though the enemy was the French King and Spanish King no matter what the motivations were, ie a foreign power. Normandy was always an English acquisition through the lands of the only genuinely successful foreign invasion of this country by William of Normandy against the English King. NI was largely conquered by settlement than invasion. In none of the Civil Wars we have had has a foreign King or President been leading an invasion of the nation. And of course in the likes of the Battle of the Boyne James had French allies which were defeated by the forces of William and Mary, so arguably that was another foreign invasion defeated. But quibbling aside, you only have to compare the UK to say mainland Europe, where the Russians, Germans, French, Austrians, Spanish have all made successful invasions of one another's territory to see the general point.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    There will be lots of future scenarios up for consideration by Scots who actually decide to vote on 18th September. It is always said for the SNP the perfect scenario is a solid Tory lead in the UK opinion polls. Speaking personally, if I believed Labour might win the 2015 GE I would be tempted to vote YES.

    I would rather live in an Independent Scotland run by the SNP than a UK ripped apart once more by an incompetent Labour government. Gordon Brown wrecked my retirement plans, Ed Miliband would probably wreck what's left of my working life.

    Easterross, Better the SNP than any of the current chancers. YES for a better and fairer Scotland
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ashcroft and I agree................:

    Wonderful/ pic.twitter.com/j9xkDZygbe

    — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 3, 2014
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    I think a renewal of the present Coalition is not impossible if the Tories come out as largest party again and Clegg still has say 25-30 MPs. A Tory majority is less of a prospect now in my view although I would not completely count it out. On Scotland, I expect a clear NO too, but while a YES vote would marginally help the Tories its significance should not be overstated, only Home in 1964 and Heath in Feb 1974 of Tory leaders would have won elections in England, Wales and NI they otherwise lost with Scotland and Home of course was Scottish anyway and Wilson English!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    rcs 1000 UKIP's rise is more about immigration, the EU and to a lesser extent gay marriage than anything libertarian.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited January 2014
    Elections are generally won by an opposition that occupies the centre ground. Cameron in 2010, Blair in 97, even Mrs T in 1979 had a fairly centrist manifesto and campaign.

    Yes its true that all three managed to occupy the centre ground but what they also managed to do was enthuse their base as well. The difference comes in the follow up elections. Thatcher managed to keep her base enthused. Blair didn't.

    The impact of that was that Thatcher polled in excess of 13 million votes in all three of her victories and handed over a legacy of support unprecedented in British political history. Blair on the other hand lost 3 million votes between 1997 and 2001 and another million in 2005 (primarily to the benefit of the Libdems). Blair only won in 2001 and 2005 because of the desperate and broken state of the Tory Party post 1990 (a factor that has not been resolved in any substantive way).

    The reality is that Party's cannot win elections with just the centreground. On its own it becomes no more than a no man's land trapped in between the core political ideologies. That is why the Libdems only have limited appeal. With parties to both their left and right they have never been able to break out fully. SImilarly with Cameron increasingly being hemmed in on the right the Tories are now facing similar problems if not yet to the same extent.

    Cameron whose performance seems more Blairite than Thatcherite, has split the right and seen his support (in poll terms) decline. He is treated with disdain by many who would previously have been seen as conservative. Cameron cannot afford to lose more than a couple of hundred thousand votes. In the current environment that seems unlikely. I suspect Cameron will lose up to a million votes. perhaps more on a bad day.

    Of course the other consideration is that neither Blair and Thatcher had the dysfunctional baggage of a coalition in their past to weigh them down either. The formation of the Coalition has added much to Tory woes and I'm not convinced that in the final run up to the election that the Libdems (languishing in the polls) will not go native and dish the dirt on being in government with the Tories, finishing off any chance of the Tories keeping their vote share up.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited January 2014
    I have obviously overslept: "Scotchlundt" is a free Democratic Socialist Repudiated Kingdom. Or have they run out of "Wife-beater" norf' of da' Tweed...?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Re. RCS:

    "We in Britain should look to Germany where manufacturing and engineering are still prized (and even to India to see why they can make cars here when British companies could not). Also to the United States to look at entrepreneurship and hidden government subsidies and protectionism."

    Would that be the same Germany whose economy we are set to overtake?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25519110

    Do you really want me to respond to a completely made up forecast? In 2000, the forecasts in the US were for surpluses as far as the eye could see. Politicians spent their time debating how to spend them. Remind me how that went.
This discussion has been closed.