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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that LAB has a 41pc lead amongst teachers
I’ve now got full details of the YouGov poll of teachers which was carried out for the NUT. I should stress that this is a representative sample of teachers in England and Wales with the YouGov using its estabished polling panel.
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*Just to save others saying it.
I like him and I think he's a good thing. But, clearly, he's not great at winning over the sceptical or the semi-hostile.
I wonder how many state school teachers there are nationally? And how that averages out per constituency?
Anyway, off out so will leave you to the long holidays/gold-plated pension/responsible for all society's ills stuff.
- I believe that you're in education?
Does your experience suggest Gove is very unpopular with teachers?
If so, it the man or the policies or both?
If he is not there to improve things then what exactly is the point of him being a minister?
... which pretty much supports my views.
Enough said
What he's actually doing is giving more power to those who did most to create the mess we're in in the first place.
There are signs that things are changing with ofsted, which gives me hope... but there are so many other clusterfeckish issues building up around the edges that I suspect it's too late.
Some one said a couple of threads ago that teachers were disproportionately in the LD>Lab switchers. Are we in danger of drawing different conclusions from the same data when it isn't really warranted?
Basically a lot of anti-Irag war voters have returned to Labour (from LD). Not sure we can say more than that, especially specifically on education,.
Stating the obvious will always upset the PB Romneys though.
Con 35
Lab 37
LD 12
UKIP 9
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Online-VI-23-12-2013-3.pdf
2010: 23%
Now: 8%
The LibDem approach of differentiating themselves from Michael Gove doesn't seem to be working too well.
This is part of a wider difficulty they have: if they differentiate themselves by joining in with the Tory-bashing, those who are minded to agree with them are given less, not more, reason to support them.
What is substantially more significant is that this poll suggests the teaching profession is massively unrepresentative of society in general. One suspects that a similar poll of university professors / lecturers would turn up similar results. The entire education system in this country is seemingly riddled with leftyism, which is very unhealthy.
Far better to look at the evidence of when the most of the switching took place and what effect it had.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Not hard to spot is it?
What's interesting is that despite the Clegg and the lib dems losing this huge chunk of voters (and quite obviously most of them going to labour) it didn't stop labour and the tories from being incredibly close in the polls and indeed there was a crossover in more than one poll at the end of 2011, even after the lib dem VI had crashed to it's current calamity Clegg level. The changes after that are mostly all Osbrowne's omnishambles which then decoupled the tory and labour VI and really kickstarted the kippers from a manageable 5% or so (for Cameron) to their current stubbornly high levels.
The truth is that the lib dem switchers didn't matter that much before the kipper surge since crossover was still possible. They also might not even matter if the kipper VI gets to the level again where it starts taking a bigger chunk out of little Ed's polling. The higher the kipper VI goes the more likely it is that it won't be just the tory vote it's eating into and the kipper vote is definitely going to get much higher yet again before the May EU elections. Count on it.
Little Ed will be posturing on kipper core issues alongside Cammie soon enough. His advantage is that his own backbenchers don't run about like headless chickens quite as much as tory euroscpetics do when the EU comes up. However, little Ed is very weak on his own personal image and still has huge trouble persuading votes or cost of living and other areas where disillusioned voters do not respond well to him so he can no more afford to lose voters to the kippers than Cammie can.
Will many kippers come back to previous parties? Very likely. Will all of them though? No and those voters all matter.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Lord Ashdown tells The Times that "Labour supporters who previously voted (LDEM) to keep the Tories out would now turn to (UKIP)" - IB Times
I've got no figures on this. Can this be Paddy?
Only today I learned that "Pakistanis" existed during the 'Wars of the North-West Frontier'. Impossible historically: Unless you are someone who believes in Keir Starmer's version of Law and History....
There's a bit more to it. In areas where a large enough bloc switched to lib-dem over Iraq to give Labour no chance then all the tactical voting guardianista types switched as well. If the bloc vote switches back then the tactical voters do as well.
I'll post a railway themed joke next time, one approved by the PB Hodges Committee on Funniness
How does this poll compare with other surveys of voting intentions of teachers? I would be very surprised if the centre left has not have a majority of support from this group.
What we really need is a by election.
Iraq cost labour a great many voters and not all of them went back but let's not pretend why the huge numbers of lib dem switchers has taken place since 2010 and what is self-evidently driving them.
Do the Tories have a 41% lead among parents, then?
I think people who are very Tory overestimate how much people care or feel negatively towards public sector workers. All it takes is to be acquainted with a few to realise it's not how the Daily Mail make it out to be.
Why children obviously stopped reading under "Labour reforms". Seriously folk; * get an education....
* Larfable accounts of the causes of the 'First World War': Atleast HB clearly states the subtle cause of the 'Second World War' correctly...!
Two containers of high explosive were discovered by a sniffer dog shortly before the ambassador was due to host President François Mitterrand in October 1984. When police questioned the security officer responsible, more explosive was found stashed in his hotel room."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/national-archives-french-planted-bomb-in-london-to-test-security-9035751.html
Did the questioning involve falling down a flight of stairs?
Don't be ridiculous.
Blair does nothing to support the Labour party these days
Somewhere between the 1960s and today, the right lost the knack of talking to people with public service motivation.
Why does Gove behave as he does? Ultimately he's a Newspaper columnist by trade. A bit of contention probably comes naturally.
Or do they expect the voters to be so awed by Osborne's economic brilliance that they will be swept back to power in spite of the obstacles they have created for themselves?
1. He's not; he's confrontational with the unions, which looks like the same thing and sounds like the same thing but isn't (though it does largely have the same effect).
2. He likes the cut and thrust of a good debate.
3. He's confident in his case and knows the unions will oppose him whatever.
4. He knows that unions will propose discussions partly in order to slow down implementation (and partly for presentation), and he knows he may very well be on borrowed time. The unions can afford to wait; Gove can't.
5. He wants the public to see that the unions oppose progress and the interests of pupils, parents, the economy and the country. He has some way to go to win this argument.
First job was as a "youth-worker" with LBL (1985; so an English-speaking contract). My senior was a "big-boned" under-graduate Primary-School teacher-student (that had no more than two 'A'-Level qualifications; one a 'D', other an 'E') who was studying at Goldsmiths, New Cross. Her - similarly employed colleague - had a similar back-story: The subsequent case of The Bamber Family made the latter her 'famous'.
Thankfully my voluntary time at Rathfern showed me not all teachers were useless; just. The teacher I spent many years working with had a beautiful daughter - an Oxbridge First in Classics, no less - who chose to follow in her mums footsteps.
:bless:
It is something of a mystery why Blair - a natural Christian Democrat in European terms - joined Labour when it was going through one of its most left-wing phases. I can only assume that with no natural home, he thought it his least-worst option, though that must have involved considerable foresight at a time when the Tory Wets were still a significant factor in the party, as well as refusing to jump onto the SDP bus.
Last year teachers were 2nd only to doctors in the Ipsos-MORI Trust Table with 86% saying they tell truth
See pic.twitter.com/EI2SQN3QDu
Somewhere between the 1960s and today, the public sector ethos (outside the armed forces) became very hostile towards the right.
Which came first, and why, are the questions.
I’m surprised the Lib Dem share is so low, or do they only appeal to ‘serious’ academics.?
Al-Beeb irony from the - now delinquent - journalist! How the youth must blush....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/10546442/Liu-Xiaoming-China-and-Britain-won-the-war-together.html
The public sector in their current form are part of the problem. They are not willingly going to be part of the solution. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
Why the public sector shifted Left over 50 years (by no means confined to the UK) is surely an interesting question.
Yet some on the right here almost seem to think that people need to be cured of their public sector ethos.
Did the Conservatives simply stop being conservative?
:awaits...:
And I am not writing them off. I am being realistic.
The public sector needs to be slashed dramatically - certainly far more dramatically than the current Government are doing or proposing. They are unsustainable in the modern economic era. Something many other countries are also discovering.
Now if I were a public sector worker with little interest in politics or economics (as is the position for the majority of the population not just those in the public sector) all I would see is that the nasty Tories/Coalition/ Labour (because they will be forced to do the same thing if they win after 2015) are trying to destroy my job and my pension. So I would most likely oppose them. Under those circumstances there really is no point the Tories trying to butter them up. Saying nice things whilst taking away someone's job isn't usually a recipe for success.
Pragmatism. Something that is sadly lacking amongst a lot of posters on here.
The shadow Cabinet is an extreme example of this: only Rachel Reeves has any significant private sector experience. But the same criticism could be levelled at both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Standards do need improving, but I wonder whether Gove isn't just another narrowly educated points scorer, strong in the humanities but weak in science and maths. Why I believe he even demonstrated a lack of knowledge of basic science by confusing thermodynamics with Newtonian mechanics on one occasion.
Whatever: broadly, the goal should be to teach literacy, numeracy, scepticism and a basic knowledge of science. That's asking a lot, but it would be sensible asymptote.
Just a thought: as a part of the state system I would like to see streaming offered pupil by pupil and subject by subject for each of the last few years.
Another striking parallel with the Labour Party of the 1970s, many of whose members believed Callaghan to be little different from the Tories and looked forward to defeat as an opportunity to return to the glories of a past era - in their case the 1940s. Except that the electorate did not want to go with them. I very much doubt they will follow the Tories back to the future either.
So the starting point must be that we have been doing things wrong, that we need to change the way we teach, what we teach and how we teach. This is where Gove is and he is right.
The tricky part is that like any other set of employees teachers will respond better to encouragement than hectoring, leadership more than bullying and inspiration rather than assertion. This is where Gove has had a lot less success. What we need is an education profession that is dedicated to improvement and better results. Ideally this will be self led. It certainly needs to be a team effort.
Why do teachers think it is ok to tolerate useless teachers in their schools damaging the children for whom they are responsible? Why are they not professionally offended by the incompetents undermining their hard work and effort? Is it just for a quiet life or because it is easier? Is there not a collective sense of responsibility in the majority of our schools? If not what do we do about it?
I give Gove a lot of credit because he seems much more interested in these questions than how teachers might want to vote. That does not mean he has got all the right answers at all.
LOL
Be amusing to see just how low Lawyers would be on that kind of list.
(Sh1t! Did I press "send"???)