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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contrib
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 5-6 pence drop in the price of a litre could be contributing to the slightly better CON position
A factor that might be helping the coalition and particularly the Tories is the price drop we’ve seen in the cost of petrol and diesel at the pumps.
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Or maybe not.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100213458/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-how-ukip-is-worrying-labour-as-well-as-the-conservatives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Meanwhile, looks like C4 has some fun footage of a speechless Farage on Bulgarian TV:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH7TEQZR2Rc
I am not sure that as people pay for their petrol they are mentioning George and Dave and nick in their prayers of thanks!
I am sure you are right that fuel prices are far more politically sensitive than most prices. It is the reason the goverment has spent so much trying to get us off Labour's fuel escalator. I think we are finally at the point where future increases are no longe built into the budget so it will be less difficult to avoid these in future.
More generally I deeply resent that I am paying about £50 in tax to the government every time I fill my tank, £50 that comes out of money already taxed at 40%. The cost of fuel and getting around in the UK is a serious economic disadvantage. Now that we have decided the world is not warming after all perhaps we should try hard to do something about it (quietly retreats to a sound proof room).
People of knowledge, I beg of you, please be patient with Sean. He reads the right-wing London press and thinks he understands Scotland.
If so, I'm afraid the SNP's fear and confusion will predominate. I really can't see Scots buying into this shambles, much though I'd be happy if they did.
It's hard to get much more basic confusion and shambolic than that.
Let me remind you of the incompetent fop's hilarity.
Cameron's govt. spokesman have admitted there might not be a treaty. Yet it's not just Cameron and the tory party's own position on whether to support IN or OUT that is supposedly amusingly predicated on treaty negotiations that likely won't happen.
The entire referendum itself even happening is predicated on those treaty negotiations occurring, even down to the wording of the question. It's all there in Cameron's own words.
For anyone who missed that it's a get out clause and loophole every bit as huge as the one Cammie used for Lisbon.
How hard will it be for Cameron to wriggle out of his Cast Iron Pledge for an IN/OUT EU referendum in the future on the grounds that it can't be held since there will have been no treaty, no negotiations, no new settlement and no new terms?
About as hard as it was for Cammie to wriggle out of the Cast Iron Lisbon pledge.
I really can't see Eurosceptics buying into this shambles forever. At least you'll find out in the May locals just how compelling a case Cammie is making to tory/UKIP waverers.
Somehow I doubt you would react in the same way if the cooking of the books related to Gordon Brown and the so-called Golden Rule.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17769990
I did burst out laughing when the BBC seriously reported tonight though that Labour thought the deficit was too high. Now there is a party with a sense of humour. Curiously the BBC did not seem to have asked them what they thought the government was spending too much money on.
Ex-Transport Minister John Spellar claims UKIP could dent Labour’s chances of regaining control of county councils, particularly in the North and the Midlands.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-must-wake-up-ukip-1848445#ixzz2RJ4jy17P
Latest poll on independence -
Yes: 30
No: 51"
Even by picking the least favourable recent poll for Yes, you've still managed to find one that shows a 2% swing to Yes since the last equivalent poll of 2012 by the same company.
Hardly surprising, given that every single pollster has shown a pro-independence swing this year. The trend isn't looking great for you guys.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
Oh, it's so much worse than that, Sean. The 2% swing has occurred since October.
If Panelbase are correct and the No lead is 10%, only another 5% swing is required for Yes to win.
At this rate Yes should be able to win next year's referendum some time in 2024.
On topic, of course it was the price of fuel which gave Hague his only poll lead in 2000!
Mark, you can't call it the "SNP Party" because the P stands for Party. It's like calling the BBC the "BBC Corporation".
Luckily the SNP had a substantial enough lead in terms of council seats after their historic local election triumph last year that there is no danger of them ceasing to be the largest party of local government.
An alternative theory is that this is a Margaret Thatcher memorial bounce. That doesn't feel particularly likely to me.
I guess we'll never know.
It's a vital news resource indeed.
Damn I forgot to include the bit about the titanium hooters.
BREAKING Met Police have now launched formal investigation into allegations of inappropriate behaviour by Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard
This was compared to the large increases in the year before Budget 2011, with diesel being below £1.20 a litre in the autumn of 2010. There was a marked decline in the Tory vote share over that period, which some ascribed to the spending review in October 2010, but may well have been fuel prices/cost of living related.
Since then the two largest movements in the Tory vote share have been due to the [alleged] use of the veto in Europe, and [omnishambles] Budget 2012.
So taking a wider view than just the last week or so, it would appear that one way for the Tories to give themselves a chance at the GE in 2015 would be to find a way of pushing fuel prices down by ~10%. Is there a practical way of achieving that?
As I'm sure you'll have spotted, opposition to independence also went down in the same poll.
"What, you think Brits can't google? Pitiful."
Actually, it would be a lot simpler for you "Brits" if you simply kept up to date with latest polling developments by following the comprehensive coverage over at Scot Goes Pop, voted one of the UK's top 100 political blogs. Here is how it covered the poll you're mysteriously so excited about -
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/tns-bmrb-poll-decrease-in-opposition-to.html
If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England, and expect to fail.
Given experience in the eurozone, today’s conventional wisdom is that monetary union is feasible only as part of a move towards eventual fiscal union. But desire to break up fiscal union was always a major – perhaps the principal – motive for independence in the first place.
Scotland could continue to use the pound unilaterally, whether the Bank of England liked it or not – as Ecuador uses the dollar and Montenegro the euro. But this is not really an attractive course, and the only countries that have adopted it are those – such as Ecuador and Montenegro – whose monetary histories are so dire that they prefer to entrust their policies to foreigners.
Ed was going to lead us into the next election
Yes, that was my first thought as well. Maybe they should replace Alistair Darling?
You'll grasp it one day. Maybe.
Of course, that might annoy potential Tory voters in another way.
November
Con: 32.4 Lab: 42.4 LD: 9.4 Others: 15.8
December
Con: 31.8 Lab: 42.6 LD: 10.0 Others: 15.6
January
Con: 32.6 Lab: 42.0 LD: 11.0 Others: 14.0
February
Con: 31.2 Lab: 42.6 LD: 11.0 Others: 15.2
March
Con: 31.0 Lab: 40.8 LD: 11.2 Others: 16.8
April
Con: 31.8 Lab: 40.0 LD: 10.6 Others: 17.8
Others (mainly UKIP) are 'up'.
Who is down?
And when did it start?
This is still all within MOE around Con 30/Lab 40 (26.5-30-33.5, 37-40-43)
No brainer why the gap is closing.
Sell Labour.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.jpg
I'm not wholly convinced of the relationship between oil prices and voting intention. The oil price hit a high in June 2008 before falling incredibly quickly (I remember a price of 147.9p per litre falling back to 81.9p per litre) but I don't recall Labour reaping a great benefit from that fall.
I also note the highly benign period of oil prices from the early 80s to the mid noughties with the brief exception of the Gulf War in 1990. Basically, we had a generation of cheap fuel and that ended less than a decade ago. The rise in oil prices coincided with the credit boom of the 2000s and peaked just before the financial crisis.
The recent slight falls on the back of a weakening global economy worry me. Britain is stuck between the rock of a softening oil price on the back of a weakening global economy and a rising oil price which triggers inflation worries.
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
•Marco Rubio (R) 42%
•Not sure 9%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
•Rand Paul (R) 40%
•Not sure 8%
You don't have to drill wells the way the Americans do. In the end it is perfectly possible to have a thriving onshore oil or gas industry without causing grief to the locals - as anyone living near Wytch Farm can probably testify.
The lengths Osborne/ Darling went to in order to avoid actually ruling anything out today shows up their political posturing #indyref #yes
"Shakuntala Devi , who has died aged 83, lacked any formal education but possessed such an extraordinary ability to complete the most complex mathematical calculations in double quick time that she became known as “the human computer”.
As India’s most remarkable mathematical prodigy, she had astounded friends and family with her numerical prowess since childhood. She once calculated the 23rd root of a 201-digit number in her head in less than a minute, and in June 1980, at Imperial College, London, accurately multiplied two random 13-digit numbers in a few seconds.
The sum, picked at random by the computer department, was 7,686,369,774,870 x 2,465,099,745,779. After 28 seconds she correctly answered 18,947,668,177,995,426,462,773,730, a feat that earned her a place in the Guinness Book of Records."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10011281/Shakuntala-Devi.html
"Elizabeth Lloyd @eliz_lloyd
Special Adviser in communications @scotgov to @alexsalmond and co"
I think you were on stronger ground with Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower....
Obviously it's not the only effect [if it is one].
Your chart is the oil price in dollars - but the devaluation of the pound in [2007? 2008?] will have had a large impact on the price paid by British voters at the pump, as will increases in fuel duty [also neglected by your oil price chart].
I'm not going to criticise you for not doing a full and proper regression analysis, because I haven't done one either, but these are pretty large and obvious discrepancies. Would you agree?
Special Adviser in communications @scotgov to @alexsalmond and co
I think you were on stronger ground with Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower...."
Unlike the strong ground you're on praying in aid the No campaigners in the UK Treasury?
Talk me through that?
There may be a slight recovery in Conservative fortunes currently though 30-32% is hardly match-winning territory. I would also caution against the tendency to pattern-match elections and assume things about vote shares for parties based on past experience.
My thought on the American graphic is to ask whether the high petrol place fatally undermined John McCain in 2008 or whether he would have lost anyway after eight years of GOP rule. Likewise, after thirteen years of Government, was Brown always going to lose in 2010?
At first glance it appears to be the result of a slight improvement in the Tory vote share (which remains low) and a slightly lowering of the Labour vote share. The overall movement has been away from the two parties in the last year, if combined, as I recall.
As the chap in the FT wrote:
"If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England, and expect to fail."
John Cherry: Conservative.
Robert Green: Liberal Democrat.
Margaret Guest: Independent.
Pamela Hayton: UKIP.
Gordon Mcara: Independent.
Frances Turner: Labour.
https://www.westsussex.gov.uk/your_council/councillors_and_democracy/elections/county_council_elections_2_may.aspx
Midhurst by-election result, 15th November 2012:
John Cherry: Conservative - 1,410 votes
Douglas Denny: UKIP - 392 votes
Midhurst result, 2009:
Con 1640
UKIP 906
LD 531
Lab 212
https://www.westsussex.gov.uk/your_council/councillors__and_democracy/elections/results_of_previous_elections.aspx
Patients are best served by clinical commissioning groups replacing repeatedly underperforming NHS service providers."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/regulated-market-nhs-competition
O/T but some pics that might interest you:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=100&offset=0&redirs=1&profile=default&search=Sunil060902+Epping+Ongar
Also this, essentially written by yours truly:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairlop_Loop
The population of Australia has reached 23 million:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument
http://www.whatprice.co.uk/petrol-prices/filling-stations.html
And all because someone who seems to know something about the subject suggests we should have a health system a bit more like that of Denmark, Finland, Holland or France. This may or may not be a good suggestion, but it's hardly anything to get insanely angry about.
The reaction is utterly bizarre - what is the psychology behind it, one wonders?
The "lost" line of my youth was Elmers End to Sanderstead which succumbed in 1983 and which I travelled on in the 1970s. I also used the Elmers End to Addiscombe service which survives (partly) through the Tramlink (as does the other line through Sandilands).
The station master at North Weald told us on Saturday afternoon with justifiable pride how much they had achieved in a year and how, having travelled on the Bluebell and Watercress lines, the level of service to which they could aspire.
Are the scorpions still at Ongar Station?:
Register of interests.
"Farage at The Mirage"
I'm going for a lie-down.
The PB tories have gone ballistic. Even judging only by those comments which haven't been moderated, they seem to be literally insane.
And all because someone who seems to know something about the subject suggests we should have a health system even more to his own financial interests. This may or may not be a good suggestion, but it's hardly anything to get insanely angry about.
The reaction is utterly bizarre - what is the psychology behind it, one wonders?
*tears of laughter etc,*
Farage in camouflage.
'It would be nice if British hotels had British receptionists': Labour accused of peddling xenophobic rhetoric in attack on tourism
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313463/Labours-immigration-spokesman-Chris-Bryant-slams-tourism-industry-It-nice-British-hotels-British-receptionists.html
You know, I've taken pics (or tried to) of the old abandoned sites of Selsdon, Spencer Road, Coombe Road, Bingham Road and the original Addiscombe terminus, in late 2010. Haven't put them on line yet though. But the main goal was to at least visit those sites!
"The Student Loan Company owes my family money. I've called them up and they've had me on hold for twenty minutes. At what point can I send round the bailiffs?"
If over £500 I'd use the High Court Sheriffs. Fees are recoverable and reasonable and they are dogged in their determination to do your bidding. Their powers are also much greater than a bailiff.