Presumably Boris was literally on his knees, begging to be forgiven for that bust nonsense. Nevertheless, I approve of the fact that Boris is doing his bit to exorcise the spectre of Trump. (I suspect Boris is secretly ashamed of both his dalliance with Trump and Brexit and wants us to regard them as a mere unfortunately blip.)
Is that his desk? Wrong college on the wall, phones set up for left hander which he isn't, clunky looking computer. Caught on the hop?
The "dog that didn't bark" is the absence of at least four ginormous union flags flanking Johnson at the time of the call. I mean, Liz Truss has a couple in her kitchen - between the fridge and the microwave. She is properly prepared.
I think it's pretty clear what happened here. Boris upped his game to four whole flags when Keir went flagging as well, but this arms race was unhealthy and destructive to all.
Boris demonstrated his statesmanlike behaviour by taking the first step to deescalate the situation, in the hopes Keir will also stand down, and we should all be grateful for his action to soothe tensions.
Boris may have deescalated the flag war but has surely inflamed another by not photoshopping in half a dozen busts of FDR. And going back to an earlier point, aren't the phones set up for a right-handed caller (phone in the left hand; take notes with the right)? Still, it was lucky a photographer just happened to be passing.
I think, as a diplomatic maneuver, Boris should now erect a 1200 metre high, hardened whale-wax statue of Theodore Roosevelt, in St James' Park, depicting him hunting buffalo.
Dare the Americans to do better.
Theodore? No, it was Franklin Delano who was the US wartime leader.
I mean according to the Express Biden will have told the PM to rejoin the EU, what's not to love?
You have become one of those weirdo Remoaners that wants Bad Things To Happen To Britain, so as to punish us for our wicked Leave vote.
People don't want bad things to happen. But bad things ARE happening. The Department for International Trade is telling UK companies to set up EU subsidiaries and send jobs and money there. If the DiT know that Brexit means trade is fucked then the "remoaners" whine is almost funny.
The first six months of Brexit will be totally shit. The following two years will be fairly shit. You read it here first. It is a painful and expensive divorce, which benefits no one but the lawyers, like all complex divorces. Brexiteers are "lucky" this constant drizzle - and occasional monsoon - of shit will be almost entirely obscured by the global apocalypse of Covid.
In three years time, however, both sides will start to see new opportunities, new lovers, new trades, new freedoms, I predict the UK will quite enjoy its new abilities to maneuver, and the reinvigoration of its democracy.
From Brexit on, we British get to directly elect, or deselect, those who govern us. This is not the case in the EU, and there are no signs of it reforming.
Quite right. I have a fond memory of voting for Arthur Charles Valerian Wellesley, 9th Duke of Wellington, 9th Prince of Waterloo, 9th Duke of Victoria, 10th Duke of Ciudad Rodrigo. I'm trying to remember when his seat is up for re-election... perhaps you can remind me so I can vote for him once again?
I believe he was elected for life when Lukes retired so probably you won’t get to
Absurd headline, the poll details reveal less than half of Scots including undecideds back independence, more Northern Irish voters oppose Irish unity than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters want to stay in the UK
Presumably Boris was literally on his knees, begging to be forgiven for that bust nonsense. Nevertheless, I approve of the fact that Boris is doing his bit to exorcise the spectre of Trump. (I suspect Boris is secretly ashamed of both his dalliance with Trump and Brexit and wants us to regard them as a mere unfortunately blip.)
Is that his desk? Wrong college on the wall, phones set up for left hander which he isn't, clunky looking computer. Caught on the hop?
The "dog that didn't bark" is the absence of at least four ginormous union flags flanking Johnson at the time of the call. I mean, Liz Truss has a couple in her kitchen - between the fridge and the microwave. She is properly prepared.
I think it's pretty clear what happened here. Boris upped his game to four whole flags when Keir went flagging as well, but this arms race was unhealthy and destructive to all.
Boris demonstrated his statesmanlike behaviour by taking the first step to deescalate the situation, in the hopes Keir will also stand down, and we should all be grateful for his action to soothe tensions.
Boris may have deescalated the flag war but has surely inflamed another by not photoshopping in half a dozen busts of FDR. And going back to an earlier point, aren't the phones set up for a right-handed caller (phone in the left hand; take notes with the right)? Still, it was lucky a photographer just happened to be passing.
I think, as a diplomatic maneuver, Boris should now erect a 1200 metre high, hardened whale-wax statue of Theodore Roosevelt, in St James' Park, depicting him hunting buffalo.
Dare the Americans to do better.
Theodore? No, it was Franklin Delano who was the US wartime leader.
I mean according to the Express Biden will have told the PM to rejoin the EU, what's not to love?
You have become one of those weirdo Remoaners that wants Bad Things To Happen To Britain, so as to punish us for our wicked Leave vote.
People don't want bad things to happen. But bad things ARE happening. The Department for International Trade is telling UK companies to set up EU subsidiaries and send jobs and money there. If the DiT know that Brexit means trade is fucked then the "remoaners" whine is almost funny.
The first six months of Brexit will be totally shit. The following two years will be fairly shit. You read it here first. It is a painful and expensive divorce, which benefits no one but the lawyers, like all complex divorces. Brexiteers are "lucky" this constant drizzle - and occasional monsoon - of shit will be almost entirely obscured by the global apocalypse of Covid.
In three years time, however, both sides will start to see new opportunities, new lovers, new trades, new freedoms, I predict the UK will quite enjoy its new abilities to maneuver, and the reinvigoration of its democracy.
From Brexit on, we British get to directly elect, or deselect, those who govern us. This is not the case in the EU, and there are no signs of it reforming.
Quite right. I have a fond memory of voting for Arthur Charles Valerian Wellesley, 9th Duke of Wellington, 9th Prince of Waterloo, 9th Duke of Victoria, 10th Duke of Ciudad Rodrigo. I'm trying to remember when his seat is up for re-election... perhaps you can remind me so I can vote for him once again?
I believe he was elected for life when Lukes retired so probably you won’t get to
Would you have been in favour of a referendum on European membership in 1982, or would you have considered the issue settled for a generation by the 1975 referendum?
If we apply the same intervals to Scotland, they can expect their next Indyref sometime in 2055.
Well, in 1983, the main opposition party stood on a platform of leaving the EEC.
Fat lot of good it did them, mind, but nobody said that the debate was illegitimate.
Conclusion: the time to revisit a referendum decision is when the voting public want to revisit it. Messy, but that's the glory of the British Constitution.
I mean according to the Express Biden will have told the PM to rejoin the EU, what's not to love?
You have become one of those weirdo Remoaners that wants Bad Things To Happen To Britain, so as to punish us for our wicked Leave vote.
People don't want bad things to happen. But bad things ARE happening. The Department for International Trade is telling UK companies to set up EU subsidiaries and send jobs and money there. If the DiT know that Brexit means trade is fucked then the "remoaners" whine is almost funny.
The first six months of Brexit will be totally shit. The following two years will be fairly shit. You read it here first. It is a painful and expensive divorce, which benefits no one but the lawyers, like all complex divorces. Brexiteers are "lucky" this constant drizzle - and occasional monsoon - of shit will be almost entirely obscured by the global apocalypse of Covid.
In three years time, however, both sides will start to see new opportunities, new lovers, new trades, new freedoms, I predict the UK will quite enjoy its new abilities to maneuver, and the reinvigoration of its democracy.
From Brexit on, we British get to directly elect, or deselect, those who govern us. This is not the case in the EU, and there are no signs of it reforming.
Quite right. I have a fond memory of voting for Arthur Charles Valerian Wellesley, 9th Duke of Wellington, 9th Prince of Waterloo, 9th Duke of Victoria, 10th Duke of Ciudad Rodrigo. I'm trying to remember when his seat is up for re-election... perhaps you can remind me so I can vote for him once again?
I believe he was elected for life when Lukes retired so probably you won’t get to
'Lukes'? So casual.
Arthur Charles St John Lawson Johnston, 3rd Baron Luke, please.
I see from wikipedia that the Duke now sits as a Crossbencher, not a Conservative. Tut, he should resign and fight again in a further by-election.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I mean according to the Express Biden will have told the PM to rejoin the EU, what's not to love?
You have become one of those weirdo Remoaners that wants Bad Things To Happen To Britain, so as to punish us for our wicked Leave vote.
People don't want bad things to happen. But bad things ARE happening. The Department for International Trade is telling UK companies to set up EU subsidiaries and send jobs and money there. If the DiT know that Brexit means trade is fucked then the "remoaners" whine is almost funny.
The first six months of Brexit will be totally shit. The following two years will be fairly shit. You read it here first. It is a painful and expensive divorce, which benefits no one but the lawyers, like all complex divorces. Brexiteers are "lucky" this constant drizzle - and occasional monsoon - of shit will be almost entirely obscured by the global apocalypse of Covid.
In three years time, however, both sides will start to see new opportunities, new lovers, new trades, new freedoms, I predict the UK will quite enjoy its new abilities to maneuver, and the reinvigoration of its democracy.
From Brexit on, we British get to directly elect, or deselect, those who govern us. This is not the case in the EU, and there are no signs of it reforming.
In three years time we will either still have our new barriers to trade or we will have given up on them and gone back to at least customs and standards deal. Lets assume that we have doggedly insisted that we stick to the deal. I would love to know what new trading opportunities you see - the rest of the world we could already trade with, our biggest market will now no longer be traded with much as UK companies set up abroad as the only way to survive the deal.
This - very literally - is not the Brexit I voted for. This is grotesquely fucking dumb, a trade deal that stops trade. These aren't teething troubles, they are insurmountable barriers that the lying sex pest insisted on because sovereignty.
As for your final paragraph I have no argument or objection to your description of the EU. Other than to point out that the EEA is not the EU. The CU is not the EU. Walking away from the EU didn't have to involve walking away from free trade. Yet you and people like you still foam on like the EEA and CU really are the EU. Which we both know is bollox.
Lie to me, I don't care. But you are lying to yourself. Or yourselves more accurately in your particular case...
The coming years will be all about sorting out Boris's mess. As you rightly say, we can't carry on like this. My own employer, for example, has had to hire a proxy in the Netherlands to be able to distribute to the EU - a ludicrous situation. Although it will take years, the goal now will be to quietly and coolly go about rebuilding for a time when Boris, Farage and the other zanies are all but forgotten.
Correct. People are fed up with Brexit and would rather not engage with the nonsense that is the inevitable consequence of it, but we don't have the choice. If all the effects essentially are bad that drives the effort towards making them less bad, rather than finding new vague"opportunities". As a lot of the mitigations are at the discretion of the EU, they will name a price for their consent. We will have decide whether we are prepared to pay it.
Most of us don't have to engage with it. The bulk of the UK economy is domestic and roughly half of international trade is outside the EU as well.
People are fed up with Brexit, but most of the population can happily ignore it. The most they'll have to do with its consequences is having to go through the dirty foreigner gate when they fly in for their holidays, in whatever year those are allowed again.
In the first instance, I think it's a technical discussion. If fishermen want to sell their fish and, indeed, have a livelihood, the UK government will have to reach out to the EU and member states and make them a proposal that gives them something valuable in exchange. I don't see fishermen going, "Yes, Boris, you're right, it is just teething problems, we don't need a living despite you promising us the earth..." I expect them to lobby hard and kick up a stink. This will be replicated across lots of sectors at which point it becomes political. The remarkable thing about Brexit is that there are so many losers and hardly any winners from it (Johnson himself is one of the few).
I can state with absolute clarity it was not my wife or I who were invited to our vaccinations today by Betsi Cadwaladr
You're positively cherpy following the shots. Good on you Big G and Mrs Big G.
Thank you and we are both grateful and incredibly impressed with the whole operation. The kindness shown by everyone from the army personal, to the volunteers, to the doctors and nurses who administered out Pfizer vaccinations and it only took 35 minutes from arriving in the car park, resting for 15 minutes after the vaccination , and actually leaving the car park.
Also the doctor was most interesting when talking about the Pfizer vaccine itself, the logistics and storage of it, and the actual method of injection
We are so grateful, and would urge everyone to follow the rules for a few more months, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Well done!
Drakeford needs to give you the second Pfizer vaccine within four weeks according to Welsh and Scottish Doctors. If he does not it is another outrageous dereliction of duty by Drakeford.
Drakeford never crossed my mind other than he is inept, but the doctor did say the second dose will be in 11 weeks or less and they will text us. You receive a personal vaccine record card with the name of the vaccine, the batch number and venue, and you are required to present it for the second injection where it will be updated and effectively becomes written confirmation of your dates of covid vaccinations
BMA is slating Drakeford's 12 week second dose strategy.
I also believe greater democracy will lead, ultimately, to greater freedom and prosperity in the future. Could be ten-twenty years before we see it, mind. My children will benefit, not me
The breakup of the UK benefits nobody, especially your children.
I don't believe it will break up. BoJo will obviously deny a referendum, and long-grass it with a Commission on Federalism. The Norns will realise they got a massively lucky deal (inside the SM and CU but also inside the UK).
Even if it did break up the UK, it would - just about - be worth it. The EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty was an outrage against democracy. It was a rape of democracy. Fuck the EU. Fuck the europhiles who wanted to INGORE or even REVOKE the referendum. Their behaviour showed their true colours.
They had to be defeated, and visibly defeated. The referendum had to be honoured, or we were no longer the country we thought. An ancient and honourable democracy, home to the Mother of Parliaments.
Thank God, at the end, we saw sense. We honoured the vote. We remain democratic. Every single British voter now knows that, when they go out to vote, that vote will be respected, and obeyed. No matter how uncomfortable it is for the elite, metropolitan Londoners and their friends in the shires.
This is beyond precious. Britons have had it confirmed that our democracy WORKS. The politicians are the employees of the PEOPLE.
Imagine what might have happened if people like you had got their way, and the referendum had been reversed or ignored. Unthinkable. We'd be headed for US-style Trumpite insurrection.
Not sure that Norniron will benefit that much. As trade internally within the UK is now really difficult thanks to the Conservative and Unionist Party, Norniron is being reconfigured to be supplied and supply the Republic and the EU, not the rest of the UK.
As for all your mouth-foaming about democracy, that is all about the EU. None of it applies to the EEA or CU which are not the EU.
You are talking Bollocks. You Know you are talking Bollocks.
We are not in disagreement.
My point is: we had to honour the vote. And now we have
After this, everything is up for grabs.
I predict (with modest confidence) that we will end up in an EEA-ish bespoke arrangement. It benefits both sides. Immigration and emigration are going to collapse post-covid, anyway. So the FOM issue becomes less salient. That by itself opens doors. Both sides want to trade.
But I do not believe the UK will ever rejoin the formal, political structures of the EU, at least not in the foreseeable future (about 20 years)
Good point, as there will be no UK in the foreseeable future to rejoin.
Absurd headline, the poll details reveal less than half of Scots including undecideds back independence, more Northern Irish voters oppose Irish unity than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters want to stay in the UK
I agree with your comments on this and some seem to think it is inevitable and in this political climate anything could happen over the next few years
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
Leaving the EU and maintaining the Union are two different topics. Why would people who voted to leave the EU necessarily want the Union to survive? IIRC about a third of the SNP vote also voted to leave for starters.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
Leaving the EU and maintaining the Union are two different topics. Why would people who voted to leave the EU necessarily want the Union to survive? IIRC about a third of the SNP vote also voted to leave for starters.
On current polls Starmer can become PM in 2024 but only with SNP votes.
So yes if the aim of a Leaver was to maintain a hard Brexit and keep the Tories in power after the 2024 GE then losing Scotland would make that a lot easier
I mean according to the Express Biden will have told the PM to rejoin the EU, what's not to love?
You have become one of those weirdo Remoaners that wants Bad Things To Happen To Britain, so as to punish us for our wicked Leave vote.
People don't want bad things to happen. But bad things ARE happening. The Department for International Trade is telling UK companies to set up EU subsidiaries and send jobs and money there. If the DiT know that Brexit means trade is fucked then the "remoaners" whine is almost funny.
The first six months of Brexit will be totally shit. The following two years will be fairly shit. You read it here first. It is a painful and expensive divorce, which benefits no one but the lawyers, like all complex divorces. Brexiteers are "lucky" this constant drizzle - and occasional monsoon - of shit will be almost entirely obscured by the global apocalypse of Covid.
In three years time, however, both sides will start to see new opportunities, new lovers, new trades, new freedoms, I predict the UK will quite enjoy its new abilities to maneuver, and the reinvigoration of its democracy.
From Brexit on, we British get to directly elect, or deselect, those who govern us. This is not the case in the EU, and there are no signs of it reforming.
Quite right. I have a fond memory of voting for Arthur Charles Valerian Wellesley, 9th Duke of Wellington, 9th Prince of Waterloo, 9th Duke of Victoria, 10th Duke of Ciudad Rodrigo. I'm trying to remember when his seat is up for re-election... perhaps you can remind me so I can vote for him once again?
I believe he was elected for life when Lukes retired so probably you won’t get to
More than half of Westminster Parliamentarians are UNELECTED.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Absurd headline, the poll details reveal less than half of Scots including undecideds back independence, more Northern Irish voters oppose Irish unity than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters want to stay in the UK
I often disagree with you, but in this case you are right. The polling results are (in the context of recent polls) actually somewhat (but not entirely) reassuring for Unionists.
This is a case of a provocative, clickbait-y headline chosen first, and then squeezing and squashing the polling data to make it fit
I also believe greater democracy will lead, ultimately, to greater freedom and prosperity in the future. Could be ten-twenty years before we see it, mind. My children will benefit, not me
The breakup of the UK benefits nobody, especially your children.
I don't believe it will break up. BoJo will obviously deny a referendum, and long-grass it with a Commission on Federalism. The Norns will realise they got a massively lucky deal (inside the SM and CU but also inside the UK).
Even if it did break up the UK, it would - just about - be worth it. The EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty was an outrage against democracy. It was a rape of democracy. Fuck the EU. Fuck the europhiles who wanted to INGORE or even REVOKE the referendum. Their behaviour showed their true colours.
They had to be defeated, and visibly defeated. The referendum had to be honoured, or we were no longer the country we thought. An ancient and honourable democracy, home to the Mother of Parliaments.
Thank God, at the end, we saw sense. We honoured the vote. We remain democratic. Every single British voter now knows that, when they go out to vote, that vote will be respected, and obeyed. No matter how uncomfortable it is for the elite, metropolitan Londoners and their friends in the shires.
This is beyond precious. Britons have had it confirmed that our democracy WORKS. The politicians are the employees of the PEOPLE.
Imagine what might have happened if people like you had got their way, and the referendum had been reversed or ignored. Unthinkable. We'd be headed for US-style Trumpite insurrection.
Not sure that Norniron will benefit that much. As trade internally within the UK is now really difficult thanks to the Conservative and Unionist Party, Norniron is being reconfigured to be supplied and supply the Republic and the EU, not the rest of the UK.
As for all your mouth-foaming about democracy, that is all about the EU. None of it applies to the EEA or CU which are not the EU.
You are talking Bollocks. You Know you are talking Bollocks.
Norn Iron will not benefit at all. People here are not at all impressed at having been tossed aside by the delusional idiots in Bluekip. Anything being brought here from GB now carries an import price which can be significant. Supermarket shelves are emptier. Life is sh*tty enough thanks to Covid without being urinated on by Boris and the ERG.
Brexit has merely erected a GB version of the Berlin Wall to keep foreigners out and make it as difficult as possible to have anything to do them.
But the English Nationalists are happy in their fantasy world and I can understand why the Scots want out.
Absurd headline, the poll details reveal less than half of Scots including undecideds back independence, more Northern Irish voters oppose Irish unity than back it and the vast majority of English and Welsh voters want to stay in the UK
I often disagree with you, but in this case you are right. The polling results are (in the context of recent polls) actually somewhat (but not entirely) reassuring for Unionists.
This is a case of a provocative, clickbait-y headline chosen first, and then squeezing and squashing the polling data to make it fit
I'd rather people be worried about the end of the Union than complacent about it, so even if that is so, good.
It is almost time to adopt HYUFD's Scotland strategy!
Which seems to have suddenly changed from No referendum to lets get rid of them so the Tories remain in power.
No, I oppose any indyref2 for a generation, as would Boris as if he lost it he would have to leave No 10 and be a 21st century Lord North.
However despite being a Unionist Scotland leaving would have the benefit for the Tories of near guaranteeing Tory re election in 2024 and cementing hard Brexit, on current polls there is near zero chance of a Starmer led government in 2024 without SNP confidence and supply. The Tories have a comfortable lead still in England.
I can offer an initial, provisional report on the Crown season four episode Fagan.
Remember: this is the 1960s proto-PIRA, or, if you prefer, Alan Sked-led UKIP, or even Scott P's 2021 Rejoin Party (which exists solely in his own shrivelled and tiny testicles), of televisual critique, but:
The Crown has absolutely nailed what it was like to be Michael Fagan in London in about 1982. Superb
It is almost time to adopt HYUFD's Scotland strategy!
Which seems to have suddenly changed from No referendum to lets get rid of them so the Tories remain in power.
I was thinking more on the lines of the planned ground invasion.
Maybe we can reconcile this plan. No to a referendum. Instead, invade and force the Scots to Leave the Union and join the EU by diktat of Supreme Commander of Armed Forces HYUFD. Then the Tories rule a grateful England for ever and a day. The people's Joy is Unbounded.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall, PM Sunak would beat Starmer by a landslide in 2024 in England and Wales alone.
It is almost time to adopt HYUFD's Scotland strategy!
Which seems to have suddenly changed from No referendum to lets get rid of them so the Tories remain in power.
No, I oppose any indyref2 for a generation, as would Boris as if he lost it he would have to leave No 10 and be a 21st century Lord North.
However despite being a Unionist Scotland leaving would have the benefit for the Tories of near guaranteeing Tory re election in 2024 and cementing hard Brexit, on current polls there is near zero chance of a Starmer led government in 2024 without SNP confidence and supply. The Tories have a comfortable lead still in England.
But it's all about to change. Surprised you can't feel it.
It is almost time to adopt HYUFD's Scotland strategy!
Which seems to have suddenly changed from No referendum to lets get rid of them so the Tories remain in power.
I was thinking more on the lines of the planned ground invasion.
Maybe we can reconcile this plan. No to a referendum. Instead, invade and force the Scots to Leave the Union and join the EU by diktat of Supreme Commander of Armed Forces HYUFD. Then the Tories rule a grateful England for ever and a day. The people's Joy is Unbounded.
A good plan. Boris Johnson sine die English PM, what's not to like?
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
Most of them would still be voting for Sunak in 2024, as indeed would probably all voters over 35 in England.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
Don't forget those who were between 40 and 44 at the time of the EURef. and voted Remain, became/become Leavers on their 45th birthday.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Let's park the pros and cons of Brexit for a one moment and address this old chestnut: the idea that there will be this massive clamour to go back into the EU as soon as a few million older voters have shuffled off.
People do change their views as they get older. Otherwise we'd all be living in some dystopian student communist nightmare.
It's going to take a very long time indeed for Britain, or England, or England and Wales, to rejoin the EU. If it ever happens at all. I'm not at all sure that an independent Scotland would even want to go further than the EEA. There is no significant fraction of the populace that wants to tear open that wound again.
The notion is similar to republicanism. Set up a fatuous opinion poll where you ask some randoms whether that's a good idea and a quarter or even a third will say yes. But how many of those would genuinely want to invest a load of time and effort in doing it? Probably about enough to fill a black cab.
Going into the EU would be infinitely worse. Even if they wanted us back, which is far from certain, there'd be years of tortuous negotiations, in all likelihood another very nasty referendum to get through, and the prospect of resuming the endless cycle of European council meetings and interminable political arguments about policy and especially expenditure at the end of it. To say nothing of being obliged to join the Euro, which we can all see doesn't work properly.
Never say never and all that, but if it does happen it probably won't during the lifetimes of most people who are already around today.
I also believe greater democracy will lead, ultimately, to greater freedom and prosperity in the future. Could be ten-twenty years before we see it, mind. My children will benefit, not me
The breakup of the UK benefits nobody, especially your children.
I don't believe it will break up. BoJo will obviously deny a referendum, and long-grass it with a Commission on Federalism. The Norns will realise they got a massively lucky deal (inside the SM and CU but also inside the UK).
Even if it did break up the UK, it would - just about - be worth it. The EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty was an outrage against democracy. It was a rape of democracy. Fuck the EU. Fuck the europhiles who wanted to INGORE or even REVOKE the referendum. Their behaviour showed their true colours.
They had to be defeated, and visibly defeated. The referendum had to be honoured, or we were no longer the country we thought. An ancient and honourable democracy, home to the Mother of Parliaments.
Thank God, at the end, we saw sense. We honoured the vote. We remain democratic. Every single British voter now knows that, when they go out to vote, that vote will be respected, and obeyed. No matter how uncomfortable it is for the elite, metropolitan Londoners and their friends in the shires.
This is beyond precious. Britons have had it confirmed that our democracy WORKS. The politicians are the employees of the PEOPLE.
Imagine what might have happened if people like you had got their way, and the referendum had been reversed or ignored. Unthinkable. We'd be headed for US-style Trumpite insurrection.
Not sure that Norniron will benefit that much. As trade internally within the UK is now really difficult thanks to the Conservative and Unionist Party, Norniron is being reconfigured to be supplied and supply the Republic and the EU, not the rest of the UK.
As for all your mouth-foaming about democracy, that is all about the EU. None of it applies to the EEA or CU which are not the EU.
You are talking Bollocks. You Know you are talking Bollocks.
Norn Iron will not benefit at all. People here are not at all impressed at having been tossed aside by the delusional idiots in Bluekip. Anything being brought here from GB now carries an import price which can be significant. Supermarket shelves are emptier. Life is sh*tty enough thanks to Covid without being urinated on by Boris and the ERG.
Brexit has merely erected a GB version of the Berlin Wall to keep foreigners out and make it as difficult as possible to have anything to do them.
But the English Nationalists are happy in their fantasy world and I can understand why the Scots want out.
Sounds about right. WTF are we doing? WTF do we THINK we're doing? Beats me.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
I am not sure Scotland throwing off of the yoke of (the British) Empire, is any more woke than the notion that Brexit threw off the yoke of (the EU) Empire.
I also believe greater democracy will lead, ultimately, to greater freedom and prosperity in the future. Could be ten-twenty years before we see it, mind. My children will benefit, not me
The breakup of the UK benefits nobody, especially your children.
I don't believe it will break up. BoJo will obviously deny a referendum, and long-grass it with a Commission on Federalism. The Norns will realise they got a massively lucky deal (inside the SM and CU but also inside the UK).
Even if it did break up the UK, it would - just about - be worth it. The EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty was an outrage against democracy. It was a rape of democracy. Fuck the EU. Fuck the europhiles who wanted to INGORE or even REVOKE the referendum. Their behaviour showed their true colours.
They had to be defeated, and visibly defeated. The referendum had to be honoured, or we were no longer the country we thought. An ancient and honourable democracy, home to the Mother of Parliaments.
Thank God, at the end, we saw sense. We honoured the vote. We remain democratic. Every single British voter now knows that, when they go out to vote, that vote will be respected, and obeyed. No matter how uncomfortable it is for the elite, metropolitan Londoners and their friends in the shires.
This is beyond precious. Britons have had it confirmed that our democracy WORKS. The politicians are the employees of the PEOPLE.
Imagine what might have happened if people like you had got their way, and the referendum had been reversed or ignored. Unthinkable. We'd be headed for US-style Trumpite insurrection.
Not sure that Norniron will benefit that much. As trade internally within the UK is now really difficult thanks to the Conservative and Unionist Party, Norniron is being reconfigured to be supplied and supply the Republic and the EU, not the rest of the UK.
As for all your mouth-foaming about democracy, that is all about the EU. None of it applies to the EEA or CU which are not the EU.
You are talking Bollocks. You Know you are talking Bollocks.
Norn Iron will not benefit at all. People here are not at all impressed at having been tossed aside by the delusional idiots in Bluekip. Anything being brought here from GB now carries an import price which can be significant. Supermarket shelves are emptier. Life is sh*tty enough thanks to Covid without being urinated on by Boris and the ERG.
Brexit has merely erected a GB version of the Berlin Wall to keep foreigners out and make it as difficult as possible to have anything to do them.
But the English Nationalists are happy in their fantasy world and I can understand why the Scots want out.
Sounds about right. WTF are we doing? WTF do we THINK we're doing? Beats me.
Literally *amazebombs* that you, kinabalu, are agreeing with < checks notes > lunatic europhile "Beibherli C"
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
Don't forget those who were between 40 and 44 at the time of the EURef. and voted Remain, became/become Leavers on their 45th birthday.
I like thr touching naivety that suggests that if Boris loses the union then 1) his right hand man will take over 2) the Conservative party will be rewarded by the rUK voters.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
The key thing to understand is that most Scots are nationalists. We're one of the most ancient nations in Europe and people are confident in their nationality. The debate is about what is in Scotland's interest: an independent state or as a part of bigger whole. Any chance of the Union winning an independence referendum turns on the perception of that interest being served. A perception that is woefully contradicted by Johnson's arrogant treatment of Scotland, including his patronising the Scottish government.
Campaigning on UK identity might appeal to the 20% that vote Scottish Tory, but it won't win a binary referendum.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
I am not sure Scotland throwing off of the yoke of (the British) Empire, is any more woke than the notion that Brexit threw off the yoke of (the EU) Empire.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall, PM Sunak would beat Starmer by a landslide in 2024 in England and Wales alone.
On the contrary. Given that a referendum would only occur under a Starmer led coalition with the SNP, one way to win back some voters to the UK Union, might be an offer to join the EEA or even EU proper. Much as Starmer will cry crocodile tears about having to give up Brexit in order to preserve the United Kingdom, it could be a winning gambit.
It would be a neat way of fixing a messy situation with Ireland too. Everyones a winner...
I like thr touching naivety that suggests that if Boris loses the union then 1) his right hand man will take over 2) the Conservative party will be rewarded by the rUK voters.
Labour's only chance of forming a government in 2024 is with Scottish MPs support on current polls (ie confidence and supply from the SNP), take them away and the Tories would win a landslide in England and Wales not least to ensure no concessions to the SNP in Scexit negotiations.
A Starmer win in 2024 may increase the chances of preserving the Union but if Scotland left the Union it would be a hammer blow to Labour, you have to go back to 2001 to find the last time the Tories did not win most votes in England and in 2010 and 2017 the Tories won a majority once you take out Scottish MPs
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
The key thing to understand is that most Scots are nationalists. We're one of the most ancient nations in Europe and people are confident in their nationality. The debate is about what is in Scotland's interest: an independent state or as a part of bigger whole. Any chance of the Union winning an independence referendum turns on the perception of that interest being served. A perception that is woefully contradicted by Johnson's arrogant treatment of Scotland, including his patronising the Scottish government.
Campaigning on UK identity might appeal to the 20% that vote Scottish Tory, but it won't win a binary referendum.
Incidentally there is a case to be made for Scotland getting the best of both worlds with Covid policy. It gets access to the UK store of drugs but has half the death, case and hospitalisation rates due to making better policy decisions than Johnson.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
And that's the question.
It's known that people have tended to get more economically right-wing as they age (though that tendency has been a fairly gentle drift). That kind of makes sense; there's a mechanism (blah blah 20 no heart, wibble wobble 40 no head).
But especially since That Referendum, there's been a massive shift to voting on social values lines, and a huge increase in the age profile. The gamble the Conservatives have taken is that they can continue to convert people to their social values; they have to do that, because a slice of the older electorate simply won't be voting next time. My hunch is that conversion is pretty tricky, in which case the Conservatives are stuffed (as are the Republicans).
Will the balance point between Conservative/Leave/Somewheres and Labour/Rejoin/Anywheres stay in the mid-40s, or will it shift to 50, then 55, then 60?
We'll find out which model is right, but only at a rate of 1 day per day. Which is as good a thought as any to say night night.
Once Boris has smashed his 15th February target, it might just be worth him looking at the efficacy of the one shot strategy, and if necessary substituting first doses for the over fifties with second doses for the over 80s. I am not a doctor, but based on what the BMA are saying today, it might be worth a look.
Relies on several things, but most importantly the supply of the vaccines themselves, continuing to go without a hitch. We will also have to ease off a bit on the first jabs at some point in order to start catching up on the seconds.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Let's park the pros and cons of Brexit for a one moment and address this old chestnut: the idea that there will be this massive clamour to go back into the EU as soon as a few million older voters have shuffled off.
People do change their views as they get older. Otherwise we'd all be living in some dystopian student communist nightmare.
It's going to take a very long time indeed for Britain, or England, or England and Wales, to rejoin the EU. If it ever happens at all. I'm not at all sure that an independent Scotland would even want to go further than the EEA. There is no significant fraction of the populace that wants to tear open that wound again.
The notion is similar to republicanism. Set up a fatuous opinion poll where you ask some randoms whether that's a good idea and a quarter or even a third will say yes. But how many of those would genuinely want to invest a load of time and effort in doing it? Probably about enough to fill a black cab.
Going into the EU would be infinitely worse. Even if they wanted us back, which is far from certain, there'd be years of tortuous negotiations, in all likelihood another very nasty referendum to get through, and the prospect of resuming the endless cycle of European council meetings and interminable political arguments about policy and especially expenditure at the end of it. To say nothing of being obliged to join the Euro, which we can all see doesn't work properly.
Never say never and all that, but if it does happen it probably won't during the lifetimes of most people who are already around today.
Beautifully put. I salute. For good and bad, the perpetual horror-comic that is Brexit has, whether you believe it is worth it or not, revealed how enormously and wearyingly complex it is, to quit a quasi confederal trading union, 50 years old, with lots of added political bits.
How traumatic would it be, in that light, for Scotland to leave the UK, a cemented 300 years old unified nation?!
Much much worse than Brexit, is the answer, and with no agreed endpoint afterwards, should the answer be Yes.
For the sake of all four UK nations, Her Majesty's Govt in Westminster, where Scots are wholly and democratically represented, must say No to another vote. And then let us, as Britons, work out a Federal solution.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
Specially the ones that get excited about sovereignty.
This leaver is happy for Scotland to go their own way if they so choose.
I will be interested to hear why economic dislocation will not be an issue in this particular case and why Scotland should not foot their share of the bills.
Why there will be no downsides in this case
Why you think you will get to use Sterling and be supported by our central bank - assuming the EU even let you join without adopting the euro
Oh, and why being subsumed into the EU as a very small part of same equals freedom.......
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
And that's the question.
It's known that people have tended to get more economically right-wing as they age (though that tendency has been a fairly gentle drift). That kind of makes sense; there's a mechanism (blah blah 20 no heart, wibble wobble 40 no head).
But especially since That Referendum, there's been a massive shift to voting on social values lines, and a huge increase in the age profile. The gamble the Conservatives have taken is that they can continue to convert people to their social values; they have to do that, because a slice of the older electorate simply won't be voting next time. My hunch is that conversion is pretty tricky, in which case the Conservatives are stuffed (as are the Republicans).
Will the balance point between Conservative/Leave/Somewheres and Labour/Rejoin/Anywheres stay in the mid-40s, or will it shift to 50, then 55, then 60?
We'll find out which model is right, but only at a rate of 1 day per day. Which is as good a thought as any to say night night.
The average age at which you get on the property ladder is now 39, coincidentally the average age you were first more likely than not to vote Tory in 2019 too.
Unless that changes significantly there will be no major shift
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
And that's the question.
It's known that people have tended to get more economically right-wing as they age (though that tendency has been a fairly gentle drift). That kind of makes sense; there's a mechanism (blah blah 20 no heart, wibble wobble 40 no head).
But especially since That Referendum, there's been a massive shift to voting on social values lines, and a huge increase in the age profile. The gamble the Conservatives have taken is that they can continue to convert people to their social values; they have to do that, because a slice of the older electorate simply won't be voting next time. My hunch is that conversion is pretty tricky, in which case the Conservatives are stuffed (as are the Republicans).
Will the balance point between Conservative/Leave/Somewheres and Labour/Rejoin/Anywheres stay in the mid-40s, or will it shift to 50, then 55, then 60?
We'll find out which model is right, but only at a rate of 1 day per day. Which is as good a thought as any to say night night.
Boris Johnson's Conservatives have a last ditch incediary to throw into the mix now we have left the EU. If it looks like they will lose the next election, promise a referendum on capital punishment! Top quality red meat to bag the Tories another term, and don't forget Priti is a hanger and flogger, should Boris fall on his sword.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall, PM Sunak would beat Starmer by a landslide in 2024 in England and Wales alone.
On the contrary. Given that a referendum would only occur under a Starmer led coalition with the SNP, one way to win back some voters to the UK Union, might be an offer to join the EEA or even EU proper. Much as Starmer will cry crocodile tears about having to give up Brexit in order to preserve the United Kingdom, it could be a winning gambit.
It would be a neat way of fixing a messy situation with Ireland too. Everyones a winner...
I agree if Starmer becomes PM rejoining the EEA becomes more likely and a Starmer Premiership makes preserving the Union longer term more likely too.
Hence only Starmer would allow a legal indyref2, not Boris
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
Serious question, what does "woke" mean to those that bandy the term around, including on here?
The dictionary definition is:
alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
Surely no-one can object to injustice and racism being called out, even if privately they may be a bit that way themselves. So what are they really objecting to and why should the rest of us sign up?
The first question isn't whether we should re-join but whether we should enter into negotiations with the EU about re-joining.
After all, it took us more than a decade from the initial approaches under MacMillan to us going in under Edward Heath so I could imagine the negotiations to re-join occupying a decade or more.
In any case, those who wish us to re-join (a perfectly credible position in and of itself) need to explain under what terms we would re-join.
Given membership would presumably mean a commitment to joining the Eurozone (that can be fudged), Schengen and the Single Market (the return of Freedom of Movement) plus the abrogation of all the trade deals we had negotiated outside the EU, I imagine that could be quite a hard sell to a still-sceptical British public.
The other side is whether the EU would want us back - our half-hearted mean-spirited rebate-obsessed membership was as frustrating for them as it was for us and with us outside they can, if they so wish, proceed to deepen political and economic union. The EU we might seek to re-join would be a different one from the one we left.
Naturally, if the UK were suddenly to discover its Euro-enthusiasm, the EU would be delighted t have us back but they'd be less keen on having us back as reluctant supplicants.
I don't see a way back into the political membership of the EU - a closer trading relationship is entirely plausible an indeed likely under a future non-Conservative Government - any time soon.
Relies on several things, but most importantly the supply of the vaccines themselves, continuing to go without a hitch. We will also have to ease off a bit on the first jabs at some point in order to start catching up on the seconds.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
Agree with that. I forget to say that this percentage includes children, who don't need to be vaccinated, and anyway the Pfizer vaccine is only approved for people aged 16+. Around 25% of the population of the UK are children, so 75% is actually 100% of adults, and you don't need to do 100% most likely.
That story at the bottom of the Telegraph front page: "£1000 benefit payments to boost economy" would, if true, surely be one of the stupidest ideas ever from the Treasury.
Of course the £20 pw UC uplift should be continued, but to pay it as a one-off lump sum in the middle of a pandemic where significant lockdown restrictions are inevitably still going to be in place is utter madness!
People who can barely manage on UC with the uplift, let alone without, many of whom are not especially competent with money are going to be tempted to splurge the cash on unnecessary 'stuff' they later regret and/or will seek to spend it in ways that challenge the lockdown restrictions. Bad idea.
If HMG is genuinely unwilling to extend the £20 uplift indefinitely, just extend it for a year at this point for the same cost as the £1000 one-off payment and kick the decision into 2022.
Politically that would be a dangerous move.
As we've seen with the hand wringing over fsm, which were only ever a term time commitment, there would be clamour to continue it ad infinitum.
And of course we know that ongoing expenditure requires tax rises; whereas one off cost can be paid off/inflated away over the decades.....
Politicians have got used to the idea that - via the magic of quantitative easing - they can spend without penalty.
And they can.
At least, they can until inflation comes around again and bites us all VERY hard on the ass.
Relies on several things, but most importantly the supply of the vaccines themselves, continuing to go without a hitch. We will also have to ease off a bit on the first jabs at some point in order to start catching up on the seconds.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
We shouldn't have to ease up during second jabs because the supply situation will be better by then, part of why we're pursuing the 12 week strategy is so that we can allow for supply to catch up and run first and second jabs simultaneously without having to hold 50% of doses aside. If we were doing that we'd have done just half the number of first jabs and around 1.5m second jabs right now for a total of around 4.5m, instead of having 6m people partially protected, we'd have 1.5m fully protected and a further 1.5m partially protected with our partial protection running at half the rate we're currently doing.
The 12 week strategy isn't perfect but in a supply limited environment it makes a lot of sense.
If we get the J&J vaccine in the next 4-6 weeks it will be a gamechanger.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall, PM Sunak would beat Starmer by a landslide in 2024 in England and Wales alone.
On the contrary. Given that a referendum would only occur under a Starmer led coalition with the SNP, one way to win back some voters to the UK Union, might be an offer to join the EEA or even EU proper. Much as Starmer will cry crocodile tears about having to give up Brexit in order to preserve the United Kingdom, it could be a winning gambit.
It would be a neat way of fixing a messy situation with Ireland too. Everyones a winner...
Tearing open the Brexit wounds and unpicking the entire project in order to appease the Scots being an ideal strategy for appealing to Red Wall voters, of course.
As we all appreciate, Labour's coalition is splintered and holds irreconcilable views. The more Starmer talks up his Europhile credentials in an effort to please his metropolitans and try to win back some Scots, the more he looks like a North London dickhead to your soft English nationalist in Stoke or Burnley.
At this juncture we must once again remind ourselves that Labour itself devised devolution because it thought it could turn Scotland into a permanent fiefdom and vanquish nationalism at the same time. It would take a heart of stone, and all that.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
I am not sure Scotland throwing off of the yoke of (the British) Empire, is any more woke than the notion that Brexit threw off the yoke of (the EU) Empire.
It's curious. Many, perhaps even all, Leavers, while conceding that there might have been a few rum episodes, tend to proclaim that the British Empire, which imposed itself upon a load of unwilling countries, was generally a thing of benevolence. Yet the EU, which we were free to leave any time, embodied the most hideous annihilation of sovereignty. What gives?
I agree if Starmer becomes PM rejoining the EEA becomes more likely and a Starmer Premiership makes preserving the Union longer term more likely too.
Hence only Starmer would allow a legal indyref2, not Boris
I suppose if Starmer became Prime Minister in 2024 and the Conservatives were in Opposition for 10 years, they could then argue a generation had passed and they would be willing to support a new independence referendum.
Perhaps that will be the selling point of the 2034-39 Conservative-SNP Coalition.
Relies on several things, but most importantly the supply of the vaccines themselves, continuing to go without a hitch. We will also have to ease off a bit on the first jabs at some point in order to start catching up on the seconds.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
We shouldn't have to ease up during second jabs because the supply situation will be better by then, part of why we're pursuing the 12 week strategy is so that we can allow for supply to catch up and run first and second jabs simultaneously without having to hold 50% of doses aside. If we were doing that we'd have done just half the number of first jabs and around 1.5m second jabs right now for a total of around 4.5m, instead of having 6m people partially protected, we'd have 1.5m fully protected and a further 3m partially protected with our partial protection running at half the rate we're currently doing.
The 12 week strategy isn't perfect but in a supply limited environment it makes a lot of sense.
If we get the J&J vaccine in the next 4-6 weeks it will be a gamechanger.
That's all very well if the supply situation really does get better by then, and the logistics (both in terms of delivery and storage and having a sufficient number of workers on the ground to administer all the extra jabs) work out. There's plenty to go wrong, especially with the former.
If we really do end up hitting 80% in ten weeks' time it would be an immense achievement. I'm not banking on it.
The Brexit result would have been Remain 51% Leave 49% if the Remain campaign hadn't been a complete and utter shambles. That would arguably have been the best result because it would have shocked the EU out of their complacency without the UK actually leaving.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
It is not in Leavers interests to do so, a UK free of Remain voting Scotland and left with just Leave voting England and Wales would have near zero chance of ever rejoining the EU and would be more likely than not to stick with just a FTA with the EU and not rejoin the EEA either.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I think you'll find that when Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, the economic pressure on England and Wales to re-join would become immense at a time when the core Leave demographic is no longer around in their former numbers due to the inescapable effects of mortality.
Most voters over 45 not just over 65 in England and Wales voted Leave, so wrong.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall
Those over 45s who voted will already be over 50 sometime this year.
And that's the question.
It's known that people have tended to get more economically right-wing as they age (though that tendency has been a fairly gentle drift). That kind of makes sense; there's a mechanism (blah blah 20 no heart, wibble wobble 40 no head).
But especially since That Referendum, there's been a massive shift to voting on social values lines, and a huge increase in the age profile. The gamble the Conservatives have taken is that they can continue to convert people to their social values; they have to do that, because a slice of the older electorate simply won't be voting next time. My hunch is that conversion is pretty tricky, in which case the Conservatives are stuffed (as are the Republicans).
Will the balance point between Conservative/Leave/Somewheres and Labour/Rejoin/Anywheres stay in the mid-40s, or will it shift to 50, then 55, then 60?
We'll find out which model is right, but only at a rate of 1 day per day. Which is as good a thought as any to say night night.
I'm not convinced social attitudes change in the same way. I pointed out last night that the "loony left" policies of the 80s are pretty mainstream government policies now. And relatively uncontroversial. The Tory Mary Whitehouse tendency of targetting unmarried mothers and swearing on TV of the time, already seemed hideously out of date and out of touch by 1997. Social attitudes can change pretty swiftly. Witness the acceptance of equal marriage. I think these attitudes form early and are relatively "sticky". I grew up with casual racism and homophobia as part of the culture. Some of it persists in my generation. It is far more common in those 15 years older. Vanishingly uncommon in those 15 years younger.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
I am not sure Scotland throwing off of the yoke of (the British) Empire, is any more woke than the notion that Brexit threw off the yoke of (the EU) Empire.
It's curious. Many, perhaps even all, Leavers, while conceding that there might have been a few rum episodes, tend to proclaim that the British Empire, which imposed itself upon a load of unwilling countries, was generally a thing of benevolence. Yet the EU, which we were free to leave any time, embodied the most hideous annihilation of sovereignty. What gives?
Good and bad empires?
Can I refer again to Flanders and Swan? "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
The Brexit result would have been Remain 51% Leave 49% if the Remain campaign hadn't been a complete and utter shambles. That would arguably have been the best result because it would have shocked the EU out of their complacency without the UK actually leaving.
I still doubt they would have changed course.
All of this could have been avoided before even that, Cameron pushed harder and EU realised it was a realistic possiblity and made some proper concessions. Instead they agreed so much of a nothing burger nobody mentioned during the campaign.
Relies on several things, but most importantly the supply of the vaccines themselves, continuing to go without a hitch. We will also have to ease off a bit on the first jabs at some point in order to start catching up on the seconds.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
We shouldn't have to ease up during second jabs because the supply situation will be better by then, part of why we're pursuing the 12 week strategy is so that we can allow for supply to catch up and run first and second jabs simultaneously without having to hold 50% of doses aside. If we were doing that we'd have done just half the number of first jabs and around 1.5m second jabs right now for a total of around 4.5m, instead of having 6m people partially protected, we'd have 1.5m fully protected and a further 3m partially protected with our partial protection running at half the rate we're currently doing.
The 12 week strategy isn't perfect but in a supply limited environment it makes a lot of sense.
If we get the J&J vaccine in the next 4-6 weeks it will be a gamechanger.
That's all very well if the supply situation really does get better by then, and the logistics (both in terms of delivery and storage and having a sufficient number of workers on the ground to administer all the extra jabs) work out. There's plenty to go wrong, especially with the former.
If we really do end up hitting 80% in ten weeks' time it would be an immense achievement. I'm not banking on it.
That would need 3.8m jabs administered per week to new patients over the course of ten weeks. It's possible but one of the hitches is that in around 8 or 9 weeks we're no longer going to be able give any new patients the Pfizer vaccine as all of the 20m allocation will have been used and the rest of the doses will need to be held for second jabs for existing patients, so we'll be relying solely on AZ unless we are able to get early supply from Moderna or J&J get approval. I think both of the latter two will happen but there is a lot of room for things to go wrong.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
Serious question, what does "woke" mean to those that bandy the term around, including on here?
The dictionary definition is:
alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
Surely no-one can object to injustice and racism being called out, even if privately they may be a bit that way themselves. So what are they really objecting to and why should the rest of us sign up?
People have answered this a thousand times, and made distinction between people who don't care about injustice or racism at all, those who do but don't agree on ways to address that, those who say they do but don't do much other than police language and symbols without actually addressing the underlying issues, etc etc
I don't believe people really think it is a debate about people who care about racism and those who do not, nobody can think that it is a binary issue like that. Some people are alert to these issues and are therefore woke by definition but don't agree with those labelled (by themselves or others) as woke when it comes to actions, and some will say they are woke by are only really focusing on trivial things.
It's certainly a lot more complex than 'oh, people object to calling out racism?'.
So in short, I think what most people are objecting to the treating of such matters as binary good or evil, when it is a lot more nuanced than that. (And yes some people will simply be racist and injust, but that is not the whole of it, and should not be treated as the whole of it anymore than treating the most irritating woke steretype as indicative of the whole).
Golly, they really don’t seem to have a clue about what it is that they’re pushing back against.
The Scottish contingent of the statue defenders & the average Scottish Brexiteer are already onside with the anti woke stuff of course, but it’s the larger ‘Had enough of your stupid shit’ (Brexit, BJ, the Tories, Farage, Spitfires, world beating etc) segment they need to connect with. These folk couldn’t give a toss about the Woke left view that the Union is a residue of empire, and are likely to lump such an approach in with the rest of the stupid shit.
"Proof the Pfizer Covid vaccine works in the real world? Israeli healthcare group says coronavirus infections have plunged by at least 60% among vaccinated over-60s
KSM Maccabi Research and Innovation Center reported on vaccination data Said had been a 'significant decrease' coronavirus infections among over-65s Over 2.5 million of Israel's nine-million-population have had first vaccine dose Teenagers aged 16-18 are now being given the first dose, starting on Saturday"
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
Serious question, what does "woke" mean to those that bandy the term around, including on here?
The dictionary definition is:
alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
Surely no-one can object to injustice and racism being called out, even if privately they may be a bit that way themselves. So what are they really objecting to and why should the rest of us sign up?
The socially regressive right is quite innovative and nimble in its adoption of new labels, because during the growth phase of their use, people are confused about what the words mean. Regressives use stories, both fictional and factual, of absurd or unjust situations and attach the new label to that situation in order to discredit all progressive movements. Eventually, the term becomes widely understood and people start to separate out the good from the bad and the regressives have to move onto a new label. We've seen previous iterations, with "pc" being the most famous, and "cultural marxism" being one that never really got far from its far-right origins. It's a label that's now used primarily with hostile meaning, but it's usually used too carelessly to actually divine any meaning from it. Every so often an enthusiast will try to deploy a coherent theory of the word, but these will usually be a little too tortured to be useful. It's best to think of it as meaning "all the progressive things I don't accept" in the same way as "pc gone mad" was used. The more important part to the user is the feeling expressed rather than any concrete definition.
The Brexit result would have been Remain 51% Leave 49% if the Remain campaign hadn't been a complete and utter shambles. That would arguably have been the best result because it would have shocked the EU out of their complacency without the UK actually leaving.
Nothing seemed to shock the EU out of their complacency. That was the problem. If the UK had voted 50.0001% remain, it would still have been full steam ahead.
I mean, Ireland voted against Lisbon - the only country actually allowed a vote on it - and yet they sailed on unperturbed.
It's impressive that you started your nonsensical rant about politicians respecting the will of the people with that statement...
After illegally proroguing parliament, and "denying" a vote, you still claim BoZo as your champion for democracy.
Deluded doesn't begin to cover it...
The Scots had a vote. In 2014. Democracy was honoured. Etc
There is something deeply weird about Remainers seemingly egging on the Nats to have another vote, you would think they'd be against it logically.
There is something deeply weird about Leavers wanting to deny Scots the right to vote on their own future.
Specially the ones that get excited about sovereignty.
This leaver is happy for Scotland to go their own way if they so choose.
I will be interested to hear why economic dislocation will not be an issue in this particular case and why Scotland should not foot their share of the bills.
Why there will be no downsides in this case
Why you think you will get to use Sterling and be supported by our central bank - assuming the EU even let you join without adopting the euro
Oh, and why being subsumed into the EU as a very small part of same equals freedom.......
I’m happy you’re happy, just not sure why you’ve regurgitated the same weary stuff that’s been done a thousand times before. It’s just not very interesting that you’re interested.
Some evidence from this week's polling of a shift back to No in Scotland . We have seen 51% to 49% from Survation and now 52% to 48% from Panelbase. Much to play for it seems.
Yeah, I don't think wokeness is really the biggest contributory factor here. If only it were that easy!
"Woke" appears to be assuming the role of a magical incantation in Whitehall. No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
Serious question, what does "woke" mean to those that bandy the term around, including on here?
The dictionary definition is:
alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
Surely no-one can object to injustice and racism being called out, even if privately they may be a bit that way themselves. So what are they really objecting to and why should the rest of us sign up?
People have answered this a thousand times, and made distinction between people who don't care about injustice or racism at all, those who do but don't agree on ways to address that, those who say they do but don't do much other than police language and symbols without actually addressing the underlying issues, etc etc
I don't believe people really think it is a debate about people who care about racism and those who do not, nobody can think that it is a binary issue like that. Some people are alert to these issues and are therefore woke by definition but don't agree with those labelled (by themselves or others) as woke when it comes to actions, and some will say they are woke by are only really focusing on trivial things.
It's certainly a lot more complex than 'oh, people object to calling out racism?'.
So in short, I think what most people are objecting to the treating of such matters as binary good or evil, when it is a lot more nuanced than that. (And yes some people will simply be racist and injust, but that is not the whole of it, and should not be treated as the whole of it anymore than treating the most irritating woke steretype as indicative of the whole).
Thanks for answering my question (and in detail!) I am afraid I am still unclear what "woke" as a derogatory term really means. I think you are saying, people can call out racism and injustice, but they may be insincere or tokenistic when they do so - in the view of those offended by their wokeness. But it seems to me pejorative "woke" is more than just misguided talk about racism and there seems to be an element of disrespecting the values of people you don't agree with. But it all seems vague to me.
Comments
It's never too late to start quarantining international travellers.
Fat lot of good it did them, mind, but nobody said that the debate was illegitimate.
Conclusion: the time to revisit a referendum decision is when the voting public want to revisit it. Messy, but that's the glory of the British Constitution.
Arthur Charles St John Lawson Johnston, 3rd Baron Luke, please.
I see from wikipedia that the Duke now sits as a Crossbencher, not a Conservative. Tut, he should resign and fight again in a further by-election.
If it turns out to be true.
Remainers need Scottish votes to maximise their chances of GB rejoining the EU/EEA (NI having its own arrangements now anyway). Leavers may put the Union first but they know that that reduces their chances of maintaining a relatively hard Brexit in years to come.
I'm sure this does not make me unique amongst PB-ers
The difference is: I knew Michael Fagan. I did naughty weed with him. Let us see....
It's 12 weeks in England too, you know!
Mind you it would surprise no one who has ever worked there.
So yes if the aim of a Leaver was to maintain a hard Brexit and keep the Tories in power after the 2024 GE then losing Scotland would make that a lot easier
Few will notice it there.
This is a case of a provocative, clickbait-y headline chosen first, and then squeezing and squashing the polling data to make it fit
Brexit has merely erected a GB version of the Berlin Wall to keep foreigners out and make it as difficult as possible to have anything to do them.
But the English Nationalists are happy in their fantasy world and I can understand why the Scots want out.
Time to say goodnight, but I do ask we all follow the rules for the next few months and my wife and I most certainly will
Good night and thank you to all the kind messages posted about our vaccinations
However despite being a Unionist Scotland leaving would have the benefit for the Tories of near guaranteeing Tory re election in 2024 and cementing hard Brexit, on current polls there is near zero chance of a Starmer led government in 2024 without SNP confidence and supply. The Tories have a comfortable lead still in England.
Remember: this is the 1960s proto-PIRA, or, if you prefer, Alan Sked-led UKIP, or even Scott P's 2021 Rejoin Party (which exists solely in his own shrivelled and tiny testicles), of televisual critique, but:
The Crown has absolutely nailed what it was like to be Michael Fagan in London in about 1982. Superb
No to a referendum.
Instead, invade and force the Scots to Leave the Union and join the EU by diktat of Supreme Commander of Armed Forces HYUFD.
Then the Tories rule a grateful England for ever and a day.
The people's Joy is Unbounded.
Scotland leaving would shift England and Wales to become more like a Singapore on Thames under PM Sunak, Boris being forced to resign having lost Scotland. There is simply not enough opposition in GB outside Scotland to the FTA and points system for immigration and no free movement we have now.
Scotland leaving kills Rejoin for ever if South of Hadrian's Wall, PM Sunak would beat Starmer by a landslide in 2024 in England and Wales alone.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/patient-dog-waits-for-days-outside-hospital
https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1353103962514337793
People do change their views as they get older. Otherwise we'd all be living in some dystopian student communist nightmare.
It's going to take a very long time indeed for Britain, or England, or England and Wales, to rejoin the EU. If it ever happens at all. I'm not at all sure that an independent Scotland would even want to go further than the EEA. There is no significant fraction of the populace that wants to tear open that wound again.
The notion is similar to republicanism. Set up a fatuous opinion poll where you ask some randoms whether that's a good idea and a quarter or even a third will say yes. But how many of those would genuinely want to invest a load of time and effort in doing it? Probably about enough to fill a black cab.
Going into the EU would be infinitely worse. Even if they wanted us back, which is far from certain, there'd be years of tortuous negotiations, in all likelihood another very nasty referendum to get through, and the prospect of resuming the endless cycle of European council meetings and interminable political arguments about policy and especially expenditure at the end of it. To say nothing of being obliged to join the Euro, which we can all see doesn't work properly.
Never say never and all that, but if it does happen it probably won't during the lifetimes of most people who are already around today.
No one quite knows what it means, or how it works, but there is deep faith in its powers to make all issues go away.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
1) his right hand man will take over
2) the Conservative party will be rewarded by the rUK voters.
Campaigning on UK identity might appeal to the 20% that vote Scottish Tory, but it won't win a binary referendum.
It would be a neat way of fixing a messy situation with Ireland too. Everyones a winner...
A Starmer win in 2024 may increase the chances of preserving the Union but if Scotland left the Union it would be a hammer blow to Labour, you have to go back to 2001 to find the last time the Tories did not win most votes in England and in 2010 and 2017 the Tories won a majority once you take out Scottish MPs
It's known that people have tended to get more economically right-wing as they age (though that tendency has been a fairly gentle drift). That kind of makes sense; there's a mechanism (blah blah 20 no heart, wibble wobble 40 no head).
But especially since That Referendum, there's been a massive shift to voting on social values lines, and a huge increase in the age profile. The gamble the Conservatives have taken is that they can continue to convert people to their social values; they have to do that, because a slice of the older electorate simply won't be voting next time. My hunch is that conversion is pretty tricky, in which case the Conservatives are stuffed (as are the Republicans).
Will the balance point between Conservative/Leave/Somewheres and Labour/Rejoin/Anywheres stay in the mid-40s, or will it shift to 50, then 55, then 60?
We'll find out which model is right, but only at a rate of 1 day per day. Which is as good a thought as any to say night night.
I was thinking this through earlier today and thought we could probably get through the first shots for all the priority cohorts, who together constitute 60% of the adult population, by around the end of April. If we can get them all done by Easter we'll be doing very well indeed.
How traumatic would it be, in that light, for Scotland to leave the UK, a cemented 300 years old unified nation?!
Much much worse than Brexit, is the answer, and with no agreed endpoint afterwards, should the answer be Yes.
For the sake of all four UK nations, Her Majesty's Govt in Westminster, where Scots are wholly and democratically represented, must say No to another vote. And then let us, as Britons, work out a Federal solution.
I will be interested to hear why economic dislocation will not be an issue in this particular case and why Scotland should not foot their share of the bills.
Why there will be no downsides in this case
Why you think you will get to use Sterling and be supported by our central bank - assuming the EU even let you join without adopting the euro
Oh, and why being subsumed into the EU as a very small part of same equals freedom.......
Unless that changes significantly there will be no major shift
Hence only Starmer would allow a legal indyref2, not Boris
The dictionary definition is:
alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
Surely no-one can object to injustice and racism being called out, even if privately they may be a bit that way themselves. So what are they really objecting to and why should the rest of us sign up?
After all, it took us more than a decade from the initial approaches under MacMillan to us going in under Edward Heath so I could imagine the negotiations to re-join occupying a decade or more.
In any case, those who wish us to re-join (a perfectly credible position in and of itself) need to explain under what terms we would re-join.
Given membership would presumably mean a commitment to joining the Eurozone (that can be fudged), Schengen and the Single Market (the return of Freedom of Movement) plus the abrogation of all the trade deals we had negotiated outside the EU, I imagine that could be quite a hard sell to a still-sceptical British public.
The other side is whether the EU would want us back - our half-hearted mean-spirited rebate-obsessed membership was as frustrating for them as it was for us and with us outside they can, if they so wish, proceed to deepen political and economic union. The EU we might seek to re-join would be a different one from the one we left.
Naturally, if the UK were suddenly to discover its Euro-enthusiasm, the EU would be delighted t have us back but they'd be less keen on having us back as reluctant supplicants.
I don't see a way back into the political membership of the EU - a closer trading relationship is entirely plausible an indeed likely under a future non-Conservative Government - any time soon.
And they can.
At least, they can until inflation comes around again and bites us all VERY hard on the ass.
The 12 week strategy isn't perfect but in a supply limited environment it makes a lot of sense.
If we get the J&J vaccine in the next 4-6 weeks it will be a gamechanger.
As we all appreciate, Labour's coalition is splintered and holds irreconcilable views. The more Starmer talks up his Europhile credentials in an effort to please his metropolitans and try to win back some Scots, the more he looks like a North London dickhead to your soft English nationalist in Stoke or Burnley.
At this juncture we must once again remind ourselves that Labour itself devised devolution because it thought it could turn Scotland into a permanent fiefdom and vanquish nationalism at the same time. It would take a heart of stone, and all that.
Perhaps that will be the selling point of the 2034-39 Conservative-SNP Coalition.
I look forward to it.
If we really do end up hitting 80% in ten weeks' time it would be an immense achievement. I'm not banking on it.
The Tory Mary Whitehouse tendency of targetting unmarried mothers and swearing on TV of the time, already seemed hideously out of date and out of touch by 1997.
Social attitudes can change pretty swiftly. Witness the acceptance of equal marriage.
I think these attitudes form early and are relatively "sticky".
I grew up with casual racism and homophobia as part of the culture. Some of it persists in my generation. It is far more common in those 15 years older. Vanishingly uncommon in those 15 years younger.
Can I refer again to Flanders and Swan? "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
All of this could have been avoided before even that, Cameron pushed harder and EU realised it was a realistic possiblity and made some proper concessions. Instead they agreed so much of a nothing burger nobody mentioned during the campaign.
I don't believe people really think it is a debate about people who care about racism and those who do not, nobody can think that it is a binary issue like that. Some people are alert to these issues and are therefore woke by definition but don't agree with those labelled (by themselves or others) as woke when it comes to actions, and some will say they are woke by are only really focusing on trivial things.
It's certainly a lot more complex than 'oh, people object to calling out racism?'.
So in short, I think what most people are objecting to the treating of such matters as binary good or evil, when it is a lot more nuanced than that. (And yes some people will simply be racist and injust, but that is not the whole of it, and should not be treated as the whole of it anymore than treating the most irritating woke steretype as indicative of the whole).
The Scottish contingent of the statue defenders & the average Scottish Brexiteer are already onside with the anti woke stuff of course, but it’s the larger ‘Had enough of your stupid shit’ (Brexit, BJ, the Tories, Farage, Spitfires, world beating etc) segment they need to connect with. These folk couldn’t give a toss about the Woke left view that the Union is a residue of empire, and are likely to lump such an approach in with the rest of the stupid shit.
KSM Maccabi Research and Innovation Center reported on vaccination data
Said had been a 'significant decrease' coronavirus infections among over-65s
Over 2.5 million of Israel's nine-million-population have had first vaccine dose
Teenagers aged 16-18 are now being given the first dose, starting on Saturday"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179677/Israeli-healthcare-group-says-coronavirus-infections-plunged-vaccinated-60s.html
We've seen previous iterations, with "pc" being the most famous, and "cultural marxism" being one that never really got far from its far-right origins.
It's a label that's now used primarily with hostile meaning, but it's usually used too carelessly to actually divine any meaning from it. Every so often an enthusiast will try to deploy a coherent theory of the word, but these will usually be a little too tortured to be useful. It's best to think of it as meaning "all the progressive things I don't accept" in the same way as "pc gone mad" was used. The more important part to the user is the feeling expressed rather than any concrete definition.
I mean, Ireland voted against Lisbon - the only country actually allowed a vote on it - and yet they sailed on unperturbed.