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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more like
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more likely to be public sector workers than any other voter group
On New Year’s eve I posted the first part of my look at 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour and reported polling that showed that they were more certain to vote and less likely to change their minds than other groups.
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For myself as a 2010 Lib Dem I think I voted Tory in 2005 before I decided trickle-down economics was ineffective, but I don't think I'm typical of the bloc as a whole in that regard. I am a public sector worker though.
OK.
Happy New Year :-)
In answer to your question: there is not. Support for the franchise as it stands if very high amongst all political parties. Debates continue about giving votes to the 16-18 year olds, and prisoners.
So unless you define "public sector workers (other than front line service personnel, obviously)" as being under 18's or prisoners, then the answer is a resounding no.
Sadly, then Nick Clegg happened.
Over here they support public sector workers and people on benefits having the vote, but reserve the right to claim Labour victories are less legitimate afterwards. They like having excuses to hand.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34f1fe70-7308-11e3-8e87-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2p9py6vi7
"Britain’s economic recovery is expected to strengthen in 2014 as the world’s sixth-largest economy shrugs off fears over the sustainability of the upswing, according to a poll of economists."
"The poll respondents’ optimism chimes with the Treasury’s most recent collection of private sector forecasts, published in mid December, which showed economists on average expect growth of 2.4 per cent for 2014 – up from their estimates of 1.4 per cent for last year. Subsequent upward data revisions raise the likely growth rate close to 3 per cent, many of the economists said."
From a related piece:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a59899b2-72e1-11e3-b05b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2p9py6vi7
"George Osborne should be cautious about boasting that the recovery vindicates his deficit reduction plan, but a large majority of economists still think austerity should continue at its planned pace.
The chancellor did receive support from a majority, who said that those who opposed spending cuts because it destroyed growth prospects, “had been proved comprehensively wrong”."
When the economists start supporting the government's current course of action, be afraid. Be very afraid.
If they're right, however, this will be hugely important for the next election. These are two articles that should be read by every political wonk.
The facts of life remain conservative.
Allright.
If you're that concerned about tax havens then it might be worth asking why Labour did so little about it and borrowed at all our cost instead of closing down tax loopholes. Or was that them being progressive ?
@gabyhinsliff: Rowan Williams reading his own poems on @r4today. Now everyone's back at work & there's real news again, can we pls stop with the guest eds?
I believe I owe you a yellow box. Here is a summary of the main external forecasts for the performance of the UK economy. A useful companion for the FT articles you linked.
There may be a few lefties with a few million but I would guess the majority is from oligarchs and billionaires, I can only think of a few of them who are left-wing.
Unspoofable
By contrast James Stuart was extremely charming on the surface - my mother liked him a lot. He had to make his way as a lumberjack and other exotic occupations as the non-inheriting younger son, before eventually ending up as Churchill's chief whip. He was, perhaps necessarily, tough and hard-edged under the surface, unlike his gentle brother James who got the inheritance, who had a different castle and was absent-mindedly vague about where the land's boundaries were.
A different world from today, and one with seemingly only a surfqce resemblance to Downton, which is where our discussion started.
There may be a few lefties with a few million but I would guess the majority is from oligarchs and billionaires, I can only think of a few of them who are left-wing.
Freggles my dear chap, you must be very naïve. There are lots of lefties who say one thing and do the opposite. They disapprove of private education but send their own children to public schools or move home to send them to top notch "comprehensives". They moan about tax avoidance but all follow their accountants advice on reducing their tax bills. They pontificate strong employment laws but in reality follow the most anti-union behaviour when its their money which is at stake if the business fails.
Tony Blair sent Lord Cashpoint round the world with the begging bowl and he came home with it bulging. Have a look at the Honours lists under Blair/Brown and then research Labour's big donors lists. You will see the same names appearing on both. The clever thing is recognising them not for giving the Labour Party a big wodge of cash but for the genuine good work they do in communities or for charities.
ALL politicians and people with strong political views are the same. Their beliefs rarely extend to themselves and their families. That is human nature. I just wish the politicians of the left would be a bit less hypocritical about it. Tories don't pretend to be poor or working class when they are not. The same cannot be said for most Labour politicians. Look at the Labour front bench. The majority come from exactly the same privileged background as their Tory opposite numbers.
As to the hare I raised, I think I agree with Freggles. The position is basically libertarian but in order to be a thoroughgoing libertarian it is first necessary either to be stinking rich, or to be young & fit with no family, or have a family you can't stand. What was it C P Snow said about why people went on to local Councils? Probably applies to those of us who comment on political blogs, too. What that implies about Our Genial Host I shudder to think...
But a lot less than there were in 2010.
Like LD voters.
HNY.
The first of Markit/CIPS key PMIs for the UK Economy was released at 9.30 this morning. Today's PMI is for Manufacturing in December. Construction follows tomorrow and Services (the big one, as Services account for around 75% of GDP) comes on Monday.
The October and November Manufacturing PMIs were both 58.4, the highest readings since February 2011. The December PMI has come in at 57.3, slightly down on the previous two months but broadly maintaining the trend for the quarter. .
If the three sectors, Services, Manufacturing and Construction all post at levels similar to the previous two months, then this bodes well for strong Q4 GDP growth and relieves some of the pressure on December retail sales figures to show that household and personal consumption has held up.
St. George is the mounted Field Officer commanding the great march of the makers at the Trooping of the Colour. We all salute you, Sir!
And I'm well aware of hypocrisy on the Left and the generally elitist, London centric nature of the Labour leadership. There is no satisfactory alternative though.
As for the Tories not pretending to be poor or working class, Tim's photo album demonstrates that they do indeed try to be of the people when the cameras are out
“UK manufacturing’s strong upsurge continued at the end of 2013, with rates of growth in production and new orders still among the highest in the 22-year PMI survey history. On its current track, the sector should achieve output growth of over 1% in the final quarter while filling around 10-15 thousand jobs, continuing its positive contributions to both the broader economic and labour market recoveries.
If there was anything of concern on the parade ground it was that both input and output prices rose at their fastest levels for 28 months in December raising a discordant and unwelcome note on the inflationary front.
Unspoofable
More likely, it is a criticism of polls that is common in the United States where many people have ditched landlines for mobile phones. Whether that has happened here to a significant extent, I do not know, but it may be a valid concern and should not be dismissed as unspoofable. And it might be not Labour but Conservative or SNP supporters who are thus underpolled.
I don't think I've ever met a councillor who was a frequent blogger, except the unfortunate Rick who blogged once too often. The two are perhaps alternative ways of filling one's free time, both probably better than an acquaintance, who spends most of it on a MMORG, living the life that he hasn't found in reality. I'd say he was a friend, but he doesn't really have time for friendships.
This is one of the GBrown's problems inherited by the coalition - and being a coalition has not been resolved as required and certainly not in the manner of Ireland and Portugal. Hence the Deficit has not been reduced as much as could have been done.
This is just one of the problems that will inhibit growth in 2014 and the best that I can see is a flat-lining economy in 2014 after the restocking of 2013.
It will be very hard to find jobs for the under-educated and unemployable as well as the unskilled without significant employee mobility. As has been previously noted, at the same time we do seem to have bred a greater number people who are of less intelligence than previously was the case.
Our education system needs vast improvements at all levels in order to compete globally - something that is being resisted by the educational intelligensia because they will have to work more hours and harder for the same pay. An extension of school hours at both ends of the day would help parents (and cut child-care costs) who are trapped by the costs ensuing from the house-price boom of the 2000s.
As more countries become industrialised, both global food and energy prices will not decrease. We have to use energy more efficiently and that includes heating and insulation - it is amazing that we are still catching up the Scandinavians in that regard.
Exports (and export substitution) must increase and much of the financial sector appear unwilling to back companies who export to the BRIC and similar countries.
Devolution has brought more problems than it has solved and we are moving even more towards more uneven economic, health and education performances among the four countries.
As nation we are unsure how to deal with the continued surge of fundamental Islamic groups globally and also how to integrate the Muslims within our community. Such continued unrest draws upon our resources and diverts attention from other necessary problems.
Simply an issue of turkeys not voting for Christmas.
After Debenhams issued a profit warning following poor Christmas Sales, its shares tumbling 12% in light pre-New Year trading and its Finance Director resigning today, the alarm bells started to ring for the UK retail sector in general.
In a post on retail sales last week I noted that we need to wait for John Lewis and the big supermarkets to make announcements before concluding that overall retail sales have disappointed in December.
John Lewis have now commented on sales volumes (but not profits) but their story is very much better than that of Debenhams. The markets should be smiling in relief today.
From City Index:
John Lewis has confirmed that it saw a strong rise in its sales over the Christmas period.
The department store chain revealed that like-for-like sales at its stores were up 1.2 per cent, while the biggest improvement was seen online, with a 23 per cent boost to sales compared to the figures recorded for 2012.
Managing director Andy Street told the BBC that sales through its click-and-collect service were among the biggest reasons for its rise in sales, with this part of the business expanding by 60 per cent in 2013 when compared to the previous year.
...
John Lewis' city centre stores experienced record sales on December 23rd as British shoppers looked to finish off their Christmas shopping at the last minute. John Lewis, unlike many of the other major retailers across the country, elected not to discount its goods in the run up to Christmas last year.
It is time to reward St George with a post Christmas bonus of John Lewis vouchers.
For those of a financial bent, some news and data on the Bitcoin phenom.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/12/31/bitcoins-incredible-year/?utm_campaign=forbestwittersf&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
Inspite of reading the article, I'm still all at sea regarding whether it's a bluff, a double bluff, the Emperors New Clothes or the real thing.
Appreciation of Downton is a proxy for IQ testing. People with an IQ from 105-135 do not get it (quite seriously, try this on your friends). People with an IQ sub 105 (average to stupid) enjoy it as soap opera, supersmart people (IQ over 135) clearly perceive its uncanny genius.
I am confused. I have an IQ over 135, but I enjoy "Downton Abbey" as a soap. I started watching it about 6 episodes ago (because of the rape episode) and I have watched it since. Before that, I only watched about 1 episode a year or so ago after Bates was arrested for murdering his wife.
Is there something wrong with me? Or is there something wrong with Sean's theory?
The Tories can’t win in 2015 as
1. No boundary changes
2. UKIP trending at ~ 15% in the polls; they cost the Tories 20 seats in 2010 with 3% of the vote.
3. Pilgrims still in position actively campaigning against the Government of the day using taxpayers money
4. Union education fund is still in place
5. No TU reform allowing Crow and his mob hold us to ransom
6. Tory constituency parties are disintegrating in protest at Cameron’s liberal policies
7. The Tories will lose 7/8 seats along the route of HS2 to single issue candidates
8. The Tories will lose one seat in Portsmouth due to shipbuilding being concentrated in Scotland
9. No control of mass immigration
10. Public spending still out of control and the national debt rising on a daily basis
11. Human Rights Act still in place
12. No referendum on Europe
13. State control of the press introduced
14. Cameron wanted to take us to war in Syria
15. Gay Marriage
Does anyone know what generally happens to public sector workers who leave the public sector and get a private sector job? Do they typically stay lefty or do they now vote with their self interest and become more right wing?
My guess is that those who leap become a bit more right wing but those who are pushed stay bitter and lefty.
So....how does the coalition steadily reducing public sector job counts play out electorally?
Given the way he first unveils himself (in a restaurant, then a cafe), this seems rather unlikely. It'd be much more likely to be on Buzfeed: "15 places that Sherlock has been seen".
Yes, the BBC really do think they can beat the new media for rumours and news. Oh dear.
;-)
The latest episode had absolutely dire writing and plot. As with Doctor Who, they're treating their audience as fools. It's lowest-common denominator sci-fi.
So coming back to the point if you're that concened on tax havens why didn't Labour actively reduce tax avoidance opportunities in 13 years in power ? It's the coalition under extreme fiscal pressure that is actually making some moves.
“Only Child. Disillusioned Lib Dem. Guardian. Bakes Own Bread.”
Edit:Full disclosure. I may have watched this episode of Sherlock three times already.
If the Conservative Party is serious about winning, it needs to drop its Marxist belief that votes are determined by employment sector.
The objectives of the modern Left and Right are pretty much identical, it is the belief in the route to arrive at the destination that is different.
I don't know any Conservative who wishes the poor to suffer, the weak to be denied healthcare, the disabled to be discarded to the scrapheap of human detritus. I also know no Labour or LibDems who would wish for any of those things. All the people I know have compassion to varying degrees and vote for all the main stream parties.
There are millions of voters out there of all political colour who want to live in a harmonious society where there is no poverty, suffering or crime. What a shock, there is a universal attraction towards Utopia.
The real question and only question is not about the tiny minority of super rich individuals, (be they Heartless Tories, Hypocritical Labour or Louche LibDems - all are stereotypes best avoided), but about the community the other 99% of us build and inhabit. This requires a consideration of the relationships between rights and responsibilities which is far too unclear, the fair distribution of the income the state takes from the population, the expectations of the nation and the affordability of those expectations, the method of providing help for those in need and how it is afforded.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4444
I hate to break it to you Sean, but as a Sherlock fan, I also like Downton.
And most of the American shows you listed.
Have to confess it has not grabbed my attention (been too busy with conventional business and commodity markets) - seems to be a bit like Esperanto - a good idea, not universally backed and a bit ethereal.
Have you tried to buy some at your bank?
Home secretary is traditionally a hard place to be - but she has made a good fist of it...
Can't see May being demoted, so where could she possibly move to -
Ruling out chancellor, GO is safe there (1/10 to stay or so)
Foreign Sec ? Possible but that would mean Hague moving too which I can't see. If he does AN Other replaces him.
Prime Minister ? DC must be 1-20 at least to stay as PM.
Can't see why she is 8-11, to my mind it is more of a 2-5 shot at the longest.
quite so, at the end of the day the Conservatives cost the Conservatives 20 seats as they didn't persuade enough people to vote for them.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.112351227
The starting odds favour zero seats.
IA has been posting on PB just about longer than anybody else although we have not seen him much in the past year. I think he was one of the first tranche from 2004 and played a big part in the early days of the site.
But I'd take the bet.
Her husband's exploits gave me a lot of amusement.
Before reading remember this is the official Labour website and it's not the first of April.
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/71899451817/cost-of-keeping-new-years-resolution-going-up-as-gym
"Luciana Berger MP, Labour’s Shadow Public Health Minister, said:
“Millions of people across the country will want to kick-start 2014 by getting fitter and more active.
“There is a real risk however that many people will be put off from keeping to their New Year’s resolutions by soaring gym charges and David Cameron’s failure to tackle the cost-of-living crisis."
He also thought that Ed Miliband should come up with some policies.
Also I wasn't in Government, and didn't vote for Labour then, so don't feel any responsibility for their faults in office
Labour's approach to spending is reminiscent of Brewster's Millions.
A new YouGov poll for the National Union of Teachers also shows that 79% believe the coalition's impact on the education system has been negative.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/01/just-12-teachers-would-vote-conservative
It should be noted that the risk to this bet is not just that Theresa May might run into trouble but also that George Osborne or William Hague might need to be replaced by her.
For anyone interested in a lesser-acknowledged part of WWII, Jeremy Clarkson presents a documentary on BBC 2 tonight on the PQ17 Arctic Convoy disaster. Not our brightest moment in that conflict.
http://www.radiotimes.com/episode/crdmjc/pq17-an-arctic-convoy-disaster
It should be interesting: Clarkson's usually quite good at this populist military history stuff.
PS. Not seen Sherlock yet – no spoilers ‘pretty’ please ; )
I'm toying with writing a thread entitled, The Tories/Lab/Lib Dems would win a landslide in 2015 if they replaced Dave/Ed/Nick with Benedict Cumberbatch.
They didn't "invest" it, they borrowed it and spent it. As for scaring the horses I thought that's what you wanted to do now ? Much easier to tax people in prosperity than in a period of stagflation.
To play devil's advocate, there is a scenario which might appeal to George Osborne, wearing his reelection strategizing hat. GO to step back from front bench in early 2015 because he has read the polls and knows that, fairly or unfairly, voters don't like him. May to be CotE to undermine Balls, who will repel (even more) women if it looks like he is trying to bully May. New Home Sec to be old buffer who will free up job after election in return for peerage.
UK debt in 2007 before the crash was relatively smaller than that of France, Germany, the US, Canada and Japan.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46935000/jpg/_46935371_world_debt_level_466.jpg
It was the global banking crisis that broke Britain as everyone believed until the Tories started parroting the lie about Labour's debt crisis (that mysteriously affected the rest of the world) during the Labour leadership contest.
Re: Desolation of Smaug. I went to see this with a female friend in Nottingham before Christmas, and God, it's long. Not I-want-to-see-more long, or even my-bladder's-going-to-burst long, but my-wife-will-think-I'm-having-an affair long.
Someone'll take the three films and condense them into a better two-hour film that is actually watchable.
Have you noticed both Sherlock and the Desolation of Smaug features lots of Martin Freeman and Benedict Cumberbatch.
Nice of him