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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour.

Read the full story here

dr_spyn

First.

Has Ed Miliband's personal rating deteriorated throughout 2013?

rcs1000

This looks like the zeal of the converted :-)

Don't worry, in time they'll be as disappointed by Ed, as they were by Nick.

And, in case anyone missed my cogently argued piece on standards in the last thread, here it is again...

---

While I wouldn't want to get too involved in the standards debate (it seems to me rather remarkable we have government mandated standards at all)... it is worth remembering that almost all large trade blocs end up with a ton of standards based legislation.

Chapter Nine of the NAFTA agreement (about which I sadly know rather more than I would like) basically forces the US standards onto Mexico and Canada. Essentially, the Canadian and Mexican governments have to accept that products made to US standards are acceptable for local consumption - technically it says that while local countries are free to have their own standards, they must not act as trade barriers, ant the US has been harsh at enforcing this one. The result is that - effectively - NAFTA has become a single regulated entity, only with the largest country setting the standards rather than NAFTA itself.

I suspect that in pre EU days, and when Ireland and the UK had a free trade agreement, that Ireland essentially accepted the decisions of the BSI and CORGI and the like.

If we were to leave the EU, but remain in a free trade pact with the it, then I suspect we would de facto choose to adopt EU standards - simply because it would be easier.

If the EU were to get rid of its standards setting mandate, then I suspect that everyone inside the block would essentially coalesce around German standards as that is the single largest market inside the EU.

stodge

Afternoon all

Massively off-topic, the Racing Post has put up some speciality bets for 2014 (from Hills). Not sure any of these are that attractive:

8/11 Duchess of Cambridge to announce she is pregnant
2/1 Prince Harry to announce engagement
5/1 Queen to adbicate
5/1 General Election to be held in the UK
8/1 UK to have the wettest year on record
8/1 White Christmas in London
25/1 UK to score nil points at Eurovision Song Contest

RichardNabavi

On topic: That of course is why Labour are doing their best to hide the fact that they have finally and reluctantly accepted the laws of arithmetic, and why they launched their 'zero-based spending review' on the 19th December (!), a time when it was bound to sink without trace. They hope that no-one will notice the volte-face. If they do get to form the next government, the reaction from those who have been conned will be ferocious.

Mind you, I thought this juxtaposition was amusing:

http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=4694

preceded by:

http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=4704

dr_spyn

Ed Miliband’s miserable job approval questions have continued to go downwards...

All three measures still showed him ending the year with lower approval ratings than he began with.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Stodge, not a Londoner, but the 8/1 on a white Christmas there is the only one I'd consider.

I agree with Mr. 1000, this is the zeal of the converted.

Pulpstar

Although most places in the UK has some chance of seeing snow in the winter, it very rarely falls at Christmas (generally in January and February). However it does occur, with an average of seeing a White Christmas every 6 years. From 1950 to 2006, the percentage of years with a white Christmas in the UK was as follows

London 6%

So I'd want 25-1 on that bet bearing in mind it pays in a year.

RodCrosby

Labour are heading for a double whammy.

Many ex-LDs will return to the fold, as will many Kippers (to the Tories).

Pulpstar

All those bets are pretty dreadful.

Unless you are either Will, Harry or know the Duchess of Cambridge by the *Tudors* :P

stodge

Pulpstar said:

Although most places in the UK has some chance of seeing snow in the winter, it very rarely falls at Christmas (generally in January and February). However it does occur, with an average of seeing a White Christmas every 6 years. From 1950 to 2006, the percentage of years with a white Christmas in the UK was as follows

London 6%

So I'd want 25-1 on that bet bearing in mind it pays in a year.

I reckon with a couple of exceptions they are the same prices that would have been put up on December 31st 2012 for 2013. I think Prince Harry getting engaged in 2014 is a realistic prospect but 2/1 isn't that much of a price.

stodge

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Stodge, not a Londoner, but the 8/1 on a white Christmas there is the only one I'd consider.

I agree with Mr. 1000, this is the zeal of the converted.

Quite a few F1 bets on offer - there's a series of match bets and the only one that catches my eye is 8/15 Alonso 11/8 Raikkonen. I wonder if Kimi is worth a shout. He's also 6/4 to be the first Ferrari driver to win a GP. A British driver to win the British GP is 5/2 or 11/4 but that doesn't tempt either.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Stodge, I wouldn't make that bet. Raikkonen might best Alonso, or not, but the odds for a bet that could easily take 10 month to pay out are not good. Given the wide-ranging rule changes you'd be better off, I suspect, putting a pound or two on something like that's long odds and looks crazy.

Hmm. Maybe I should peruse the markets.

anotherDave

YouGov did a piece on 2010 LD > Lab switchers, that said they were Lab > LD switchers first.

"In 2010, the Lib Dems secured the votes of 1.6 million Labour identifiers"

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/

dr_spyn

London air ambulance despatched following reports of explosion in Chiswick, west London.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25563094

Morris_Dancer

John Fortune has died: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25559826

anotherDave

FPT @ David Herdson
"Of the 6.8 million people who voted for them [LDs], just under 3 million identified with the party, while almost 4 million did not."

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/

This suggests the LD core vote in 2010 was 43% of their vote > 10%.

ojcorbs

I don't think "enthusiastic" is the word Mike, they just think he'll be best PM out of the three. The surprising thing here is that it isn't higher 2010 LD switchers left because they are annoyed at what Clegg is doing(bit weird if they left but thought he would be best) and are obviously opposed to a Cameron premiership (as again this is why they left) they also don't even have a tribal reason for voting Labour like core Labour voters do, so this is actually an incredibly unsurprising revelation.

TwistedFireStopper

dr_spyn said:

London air ambulance despatched following reports of explosion in Chiswick, west London.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25563094

I wouldn't get too excited about that, air ambos get mobilised all the time, just as a precaution, and aren't always used.

dr_spyn

Stuart Jackson late of PB in fat suit shock, horror.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531208/Hospital-staff-try-fat-suits-make-feel-like-weigh-40-STONE-learn-deal-obese-patients.html

stodge

anotherDave said:

FPT @ David Herdson
"Of the 6.8 million people who voted for them [LDs], just under 3 million identified with the party, while almost 4 million did not."

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/

This suggests the LD core vote in 2010 was 43% of their vote > 10%.

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this. Like any other party, the LDs have had to build from beyond core support to gain more votes - the Conservatives did this in the Thatcher years and Labour did the same in the ealry Blair years.

We can probably guesstimate the Conservative and Labour parties have a core of around or just under 30% - the LD core is around 10% and the remainder float around across and between other parties. The presence of UKIP (which may have its own core of 3-5% we don't really know yet) means the floating voter has new options.which makes it harder for any of the other parties to add substantially to their core support.

anotherDave

stodge said:

anotherDave said:

FPT @ David Herdson
"Of the 6.8 million people who voted for them [LDs], just under 3 million identified with the party, while almost 4 million did not."

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/

This suggests the LD core vote in 2010 was 43% of their vote > 10%.

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this. Like any other party, the LDs have had to build from beyond core support to gain more votes - the Conservatives did this in the Thatcher years and Labour did the same in the ealry Blair years.

In the last thread I was suggesting that the LD's past EU elections vote share revealed their core vote. Mr H disagreed. The number offered by YouGov supports his view.

TwistedFireStopper

On the great fire extinguisher debate, I'm not too bothered by the EU regs, more that its a minor inconvenience.
Imagine you get mobilised to a fire in a school, after hours. We turn up, see smoke issuing from windows and vents, so we make entry with big water, as we always default to maximum protection and firefighting media. Once inside, it's very smoke logged, poor visibility, but we just find a small electrical fire, say a heater or hot water boiler. It's not ideal to use water on that, so we'll look around for an extinguisher, rather than withdraw and get a CO2 or dry powder off the appliance. Back in the day, we'd find it easy to scout out the correct one, but now, in poor visibility, wearing BA, you can't identify an ext without being right on top of it, so wasting a little time.
As I say, a minor inconvenience, but something it's easy to blame the EU for.

DavidL

FPT
Scott_P said:
Yes, can't wait until we abandon 13A plugs...


Reminds me of a line from a German in a Len Deighton novel He said "Britain was a nation of electrical genuises who had a dozen kinds of plug none of which worked efficiently".

It is not surprising we are so against the fire extinguisher regulation is it?

I think I might have started this by picking Nick up on a suggestion that the translation that he was involved in was "obviously good for business". I think the consensus, despite a valiant response from Nick and surprise support from Richard is that the only business that it is good for is Nick Palmer translation services Inc.

And good luck to him. If I were to list all the various things I am useless at in my life and would want to be better at being good enough at a foreign langauage to translate technical documents would be pretty high up there.

It was also a fun discussion. Merry New year when it comes everyone.

RichardNabavi

TwistedFireStopper said:

As I say, a minor inconvenience, but something it's easy to blame the EU for.

But that is not an argument against having EU-wide standards, it's an argument why this particular EU standard isn't very well designed compared with the previous UK-only standard. No doubt there are other cases where it would be the other way round.

MarkSenior

stodge said:

anotherDave said:

FPT @ David Herdson
"Of the 6.8 million people who voted for them [LDs], just under 3 million identified with the party, while almost 4 million did not."

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/

This suggests the LD core vote in 2010 was 43% of their vote > 10%.

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this. Like any other party, the LDs have had to build from beyond core support to gain more votes - the Conservatives did this in the Thatcher years and Labour did the same in the ealry Blair years.

We can probably guesstimate the Conservative and Labour parties have a core of around or just under 30% - the LD core is around 10% and the remainder float around across and between other parties. The presence of UKIP (which may have its own core of 3-5% we don't really know yet) means the floating voter has new options.which makes it harder for any of the other parties to add substantially to their core support.

The core vote figures you estimate for each party are too high , they are I think about correct for the percentage of those who vote but 30-35 % of the electorate are core non voters giving roughly a core of 8% LD 20% Lab 20% Con 4% minor parties 18% floaters remainder WNV

old_labour

Sounds like they should have asked the people who use them regularly before passing the regulations.

TwistedFireStopper said:

On the great fire extinguisher debate, I'm not too bothered by the EU regs, more that its a minor inconvenience.
Imagine you get mobilised to a fire in a school, after hours. We turn up, see smoke issuing from windows and vents, so we make entry with big water, as we always default to maximum protection and firefighting media. Once inside, it's very smoke logged, poor visibility, but we just find a small electrical fire, say a heater or hot water boiler. It's not ideal to use water on that, so we'll look around for an extinguisher, rather than withdraw and get a CO2 or dry powder off the appliance. Back in the day, we'd find it easy to scout out the correct one, but now, in poor visibility, wearing BA, you can't identify an ext without being right on top of it, so wasting a little time.
As I say, a minor inconvenience, but something it's easy to blame the EU for.

TwistedFireStopper

RichardNabavi said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

As I say, a minor inconvenience, but something it's easy to blame the EU for.

But that is not an argument against having EU-wide standards, it's an argument why this particular EU standard isn't very well designed compared with the previous UK-only standard. No doubt there are other cases where it would be the other way round.

I'm not arguing against EU wide standards, just that in this case, our standard was better.
Still it makes for easy exam questions on fire extinguisher identification!

compouter1

OGH - Surely you must be getting bored with trying to get those who refuse to listen.....to listen. For every article showing LD to Labour switchers saying they will stick firm and like the last three years refuse to budge, you will always get posts of swingback, imminent crossover, xmas crossover, Ukip returning to Tory, the economy will win it for Dave etc etc.

They wont listen.

Why not just let them carry on the UKIP/Tory infighting about the EU taking over all threads? It is quite entertaining.

**** Opens up another bag of popcorn ****

Easterross

Why is so much said about this group of ex-Labour voters who flirted with the LibDems in 2010. They are just returning to normal, if indeed they vote.

The Tories will win in 2015 if they hold their 2010 vote, regain some of the WWC who voted Tory in the Thatcher/Major years but were seduced by Blair and if they attract a reasonable share of the new voters since 2010.

History tells us that for Miliband the only way now is down. The economy is on the mend and the Tories (and to a lesser extent the LibDems) will get the credit for that. UKIP will burst like the overblown bubble they are, possibly even before May as the fruitbat image returns when they are placed under serious scrutiny. Nigel Farage spends too much time looking in a mirror admiring himself to be taken seriously.

Jonathan

Easterross said:

The Tories will win in 2015 if they hold their 2010 vote, regain some of the WWC who voted Tory in the Thatcher/Major years but were seduced by Blair and if they attract a reasonable share of the new voters since 2010.

Define "win".

dr_spyn

Labour MP Paul Goggins has stroke.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25563342

Retirement or by election in the offing?

MonikerDiCanio

Easterross said:

Why is so much said about this group of ex-Labour voters who flirted with the LibDems in 2010. They are just returning to normal, if indeed they vote.

The Tories will win in 2015 if they hold their 2010 vote, regain some of the WWC who voted Tory in the Thatcher/Major years but were seduced by Blair and if they attract a reasonable share of the new voters since 2010.

History tells us that for Miliband the only way now is down. The economy is on the mend and the Tories (and to a lesser extent the LibDems) will get the credit for that. UKIP will burst like the overblown bubble they are, possibly even before May as the fruitbat image returns when they are placed under serious scrutiny. Nigel Farage spends too much time looking in a mirror admiring himself to be taken seriously.

Aren't they just the famous anti-Tory tactical voters we hear so much about?

Stuart_Dickson

david_herdson said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

david_herdson said:

The figures as they stand would make the SNP largest but some way short of an overall majority. The Lib Dems could arrive in a taxi and the Greens too would be struggling, so a government would need the support or at least the tolerance of two of the three substantial groups. There don't look to be any particularly natural alliances there but srange as it sounds, an SNP supply-and-confidence agreement with the Tories seems least unlikely. Would the SNP members / MSPs wear that? I have no idea, but the other possibilities - a grand SNP-Lab coalition or some form of Con-Lab arrangement - seem even more unlikely, and an SNP-minority government would be unstable without some form of support if there's not a third, reasonably-sized, opposition group with which to negotiate.

David - "... an SNP supply-and-confidence agreement with the Tories seems least unlikely."

Strongly disagree there David.

If the SNP were the largest party within an NOC parliament then they would either form another Minority government (cf. 2007-11) or look towards the Greens, Inds, Lib Dems, Labour, probably in that order. I'm afraid that your own party would be the very, very last resort.

Same if LAB largest within NOC parliament. They would look to Grn, Inds, LD, SNP in that order. A Lab-Con coalition would be SLab's ultimate nightmare.

Funnily, I agree with most of that and it's what prompted my post. If it is as the current poll has it, then LD, Grn and Inds will be pretty much irrelevant and a government would be perm any two from SNP, Lab and Con (or any one with one other's tacit support). As a Lab-Con deal wouldn't pass muster with either party (as well as other reasons), that basically means the government would have to be SNP-led. Therefore, would it be a minority, a grand SNP-Lab coalition or an SNP-Tory deal?

For reasons I mentioned earlier, I don't think a minority government would fare as well in a third parliament as its first (especially having been a majority one in between). On the other hand, could a grand coalition be made to work? If not, the *only* deal on the table would be with the Tories. I agree that it wouldn't be very palatable to Salmond and party - and hence couldn't be a coalition - but on a supply-and-confidence basis? That's not so very different from 2007-11. As the Holmes quote goes, once you have eliminated the impossible ...

The Greens will have more than today's 2 MSPs, and it is unlikely the SLDs can go much lower than today's 5 MSPs. I suspect that they will get at least 10 MSPs between them. That is a significant 4th block that you are trying to pretend will not exist.

RodCrosby

Only one Opposition with a mid-term lead as low as Labour's has gone on to 'win' the next election.

Labour 1972, but they didn't win the popular vote in 1974, and it was a hung parliament with Labour just 4 seats ahead of the Tories, even after Heath did his best to commit electoral suicide...

MikeSmithson

Easterross said:

Why is so much said about this group of ex-Labour voters who flirted with the LibDems in 2010. They are just returning to normal, if indeed they vote.

The Tories will win in 2015 if they hold their 2010 vote, regain some of the WWC who voted Tory in the Thatcher/Major years but were seduced by Blair and if they attract a reasonable share of the new voters since 2010.

History tells us that for Miliband the only way now is down. The economy is on the mend and the Tories (and to a lesser extent the LibDems) will get the credit for that. UKIP will burst like the overblown bubble they are, possibly even before May as the fruitbat image returns when they are placed under serious scrutiny. Nigel Farage spends too much time looking in a mirror admiring himself to be taken seriously.

This post is partly aimed at you because whenever we have talked about this subject you have assured us that the most likely factor is that the 2010 LDs wouldn't vote. This Ashcroft polling totally undermines that.

I know it must be hard for Tories but the brutal truth is that this massive voter shift, bigger than the cumulative increase in the CON vote since 1997, makes the dream of an overall majority for the blues almost impossible.

Scott_P

MikeSmithson said:

the brutal truth is that this massive voter shift, bigger than the cumulative increase in the CON vote since 1997, makes the dream of an overall majority for the blues almost impossible.

That's a keeper

compouter1

Iv'e placed the polling crossover goalposts in May 2014, however, I cannot remember which one of the PB Hodges stated this. Anyone want to own up?

PS Avery LP has gone very quiet about polling crossovers since his "imminent crossover" in August and his "xmas crossover" have both dive bombed. Very understandable really.

dr_spyn

Unfortunately Thistle's last result wasn't a 2 - 2 draw.

http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/partick-thistles-gary-fraser-wears-a-pink-leotard-tutu-at-training-after-losing-a-forfeit-pictures/

NickPalmer

Yes, as I've said before, I think that people looking for erosion in the Labour lead are looking in the wrong place. I'm really confident about the LD switchers in Con-Lab marginals - they are for the most part some of the most politically-motivated and marginal-aware people in Britain.

As for fire extinguishers, thanks for the fun discussion. I've now moved on, and am translating 12,412 words of the latest Austrian regulation for airworthiness and operational readiness of unmanned aircraft (including non-military drones and model aircraft) and their interaction with Austrian air traffic control, or, as its friends call it:

Lufttüchtigkeits- und Betriebstüchtigkeitshinweis Nr. 66.

Eat your heart out, fire extinguisher fans.

But first I'm going to see the New Year in at a poker party, so good night all, and have a great start to 2014.

fragen

I think it's going to be almost impossible for the Tories to win outright given the circumstances....the voter shift from LD to LAB is a killer unfortunately..those pathetic voters who voted LD last time but were perversely incredulous that they were in power!? "what? The party I voted for is in power?..oh well I didn't want that!".... these voters aren't the brightest but they don't like the Tories (probably couldn't articulate why) and so they'll go back to Labour.

People forget: There is one opposition party! Just one...so logically if you're opposed to the Coalition then you've only one way to go in terms of votiing for a party that could be in power next time. That is a massive advantage to Labour.

And then we have the warped electoral system. I do think FPTP is by far the best system but the 8-10% electoral bias in favour of Labour is just wrong..so wrong. How can you win an election by 7% and fall short by 20 seats? I dread to think what majority Labour get in the same circumstances

I think given the utter mess the country was in etc etc and all the tough and unpopular decisions, does anyone else think it's pretty impressive that the Tories are only a couple of points down on 2010?

It seems the economy will be mended..we'll have good growth and yet everything points to the public handing back the keys to those who crashed the car in the first place!? Ed Miliband must thank his lucky stars every single day!

OldKingCole

As I said the other day, it's as though the SDP voters (or their children) of the 80's have gone back "home".
Whether or not they will stay with Labour is a question Labour will have to consider. Especially if they get into Government.

SouthamObserver

I have just been handed a 3lb haunch of venison to cook. As I am a leftie I know there can be only one possible way to do this, but I have no idea how. Can anyone illuminate me?

RodCrosby

fragen said:

I do think FPTP is by far the best system but the 8-10% electoral bias in favour of Labour is just wrong..so wrong. How can you win an election by 7% and fall short by 20 seats? I dread to think what majority Labour get in the same circumstances

'by far the best system...' except when the wheels fall off it, which they have, one by one, over the past 20 years... LOL

dr_spyn

@SouthamObserver Norman Tebbit had some recipes for game.

Omnium

Just popped in to say Happy New Year to all.

Just for the sake of it - 2014: I think we'll see a lot of EdM in the news in 2014, and it won't help him. Clegg too, and it'll help a little. Cameron will become 'much loved', but that familiarity won't translate into any votes. Scotland will stay, and Charles will be passed over.

Man to watch: EdB

Poster to watch: (it could be you!)

Easterross

MikeSmithson said:

Easterross said:

Why is so much said about this group of ex-Labour voters who flirted with the LibDems in 2010. They are just returning to normal, if indeed they vote.

The Tories will win in 2015 if they hold their 2010 vote, regain some of the WWC who voted Tory in the Thatcher/Major years but were seduced by Blair and if they attract a reasonable share of the new voters since 2010.

History tells us that for Miliband the only way now is down. The economy is on the mend and the Tories (and to a lesser extent the LibDems) will get the credit for that. UKIP will burst like the overblown bubble they are, possibly even before May as the fruitbat image returns when they are placed under serious scrutiny. Nigel Farage spends too much time looking in a mirror admiring himself to be taken seriously.

This post is partly aimed at you because whenever we have talked about this subject you have assured us that the most likely factor is that the 2010 LDs wouldn't vote. This Ashcroft polling totally undermines that.

I know it must be hard for Tories but the brutal truth is that this massive voter shift, bigger than the cumulative increase in the CON vote since 1997, makes the dream of an overall majority for the blues almost impossible.

The Ashcroft polling is already 3-4 months old. Very few people are like the typical PBers, political animals with long-term affiliation to a single party. We have only had one national election since 2010 and that was the Scottish General Election 2011 when the LibDems were almost wiped out. You are just desperately hoping the Tories don't win because you have never liked the Coalition. Your party is facing a return to its normal position pre 1997 as a fringe party prominent at the edges of the UK and irrelevant almost everywhere else.

General Elections are lost by governments not won by oppositions. Beyond international events such as another economic crash, David Cameron and George Osborne have the opportunity to persuade the electorate to continue the Tories in government, with or without the rump LibDems who will remain.

MikeK

SouthamObserver said:

I have just been handed a 3lb haunch of venison to cook. As I am a leftie I know there can be only one possible way to do this, but I have no idea how. Can anyone illuminate me?

Venison makes a nice roast. If your "haunch" comes from the shoulder, a slow roast of about 90 mins is best. Add roast potatoes, french beans and mushrooms and you can't go wrong.

dr_spyn

@SouthamObserver Found the Tebbit recipe book. He marinades the haunch for 24 hours, and cuts it, so that lardons of bacon can be added. Cooks it for 15 mins per lb at 170C.

This is from The Guardian.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2006/oct/14/features.foodanddrink5

Omnium

SouthamObserver said:

I have just been handed a 3lb haunch of venison to cook. As I am a leftie I know there can be only one possible way to do this, but I have no idea how. Can anyone illuminate me?

Throw in oven. Don't mess with it. Take a CONSERVATIVE view. When it smells and looks irresistible then eat.

Note how simple these instructions are. If we threw in LABOUR, it'd seem like hard work

dr_spyn

Venison.

http://www.highlandgame.com/recipes/10/roast-haunch-of-venison-with-rosemary.php

http://www.waitrose.com/home/recipes/recipe_directory/r/roast_haunch_of_venison_with_a_red_wine_gravy.html

dr_spyn

Tebbit's book.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Game-Cook-Inspired-Conversation/dp/1906779112/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1388510895&sr=8-1&keywords=the+game+cook

MarkSenior

fragen said:

And then we have the warped electoral system. I do think FPTP is by far the best system but the 8-10% electoral bias in favour of Labour is just wrong..so wrong. How can you win an election by 7% and fall short by 20 seats? I dread to think what majority Labour get in the same circumstances

FPTP gave the Conservatives 47% of the MPs for 37% of the vote and yet you are greedy for it to be higher .

SouthamObserver

Thanks for the tips. It's got to be done tonight, so fast in high heat looks to be the way.

Here's hoping you all get through the worst night of the year unscathed.

See you in 2014!

fragen

"FPTP gave the Conservatives 47% of the MPs for 37% of the vote and yet you are greedy for it to be higher."

Not really...just a working majority would have been nice...especially given that a 2% win for Labour
in 2005 gave them a 66 seat majority.

MikeSmithson

@fragen
Most of the apparent bias is caused by lower turnout rates in LAB seats and LAB voters being much more reluctant to turnout in non-battleground constituencies.

In any case we do not vote for parties in Westminster elections but individuals to be our local MPs. Also we do not vote for Prime Ministers.

The most telling statistic is that 16.4% of LAB aggregate vote in 2010 was in seats where they were third. With the Tories it was 28.4%.

MarkSenior

fragen said:

"FPTP gave the Conservatives 47% of the MPs for 37% of the vote and yet you are greedy for it to be higher."

Not really...just a working majority would have been nice...especially given that a 2% win for Labour
in 2005 gave them a 66 seat majority.

Why should any party expect a working majority with only 37% of the vote ?

Easterross

SO never cook venison without marinading it for at least 24hrs. I usually leave it in half a bottle of red wine and a can of beer overnight. I prefer using a fish kettle to marinade it but if you don't have a fish kettle a large oven dish will do as long as more than half the depth of the venison is covered.

Too many people cook venison for too long. It should be cooked slowly so it doesn't dry out. I find the bottom shelf in the aga is perfect for that. I always use 20 mins per lb plus 20 mins as a guideline but after 40 mins take it out and test it every 10-20 mins thereafter. You test it by putting a sharp knife down through the top of the roast. If the knife slides in and out easily, it is cooked. If it sticks, its not ready.

MikeSmithson

MarkSenior said:

fragen said:

"FPTP gave the Conservatives 47% of the MPs for 37% of the vote and yet you are greedy for it to be higher."

Not really...just a working majority would have been nice...especially given that a 2% win for Labour
in 2005 gave them a 66 seat majority.

Why should any party expect a working majority with only 37% of the vote ?

Exactly.

fitalass

Yep, it would be a shame to ruin it, venison prepared and cooked correctly is delicious.

Easterross said:

SO never cook venison without marinading it for at least 24hrs. I usually leave it in half a bottle of red wine and a can of beer overnight. I prefer using a fish kettle to marinade it but if you don't have a fish kettle a large oven dish will do as long as more than half the depth of the venison is covered.

Too many people cook venison for too long. It should be cooked slowly so it doesn't dry out. I find the bottom shelf in the aga is perfect for that. I always use 20 mins per lb plus 20 mins as a guideline but after 40 mins take it out and test it every 10-20 mins thereafter. You test it by putting a sharp knife down through the top of the roast. If the knife slides in and out easily, it is cooked. If it sticks, its not ready.

fitalass

Twitter
Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 1m
Governments insist on health warnings on alcohol, tobacco etc. They rarely attach such warnings to their own behaviour.

SMukesh

Bold predictions for 2014 by the New Statesman

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/12/five-political-predictions-2014

Morris_Dancer

Miss Fitalass, venison burgers are indeed delicious. Much better than beef, and with practically no fat either.

AveryLP

The FTSE 100 Index closes today a point shy of 6,750, not quite at a record level but 14% up on the calendar year.

This despite a profits warning from Debenhams and an admission that its pre-Christmas week had been disappointing which sent its (non FTSE 100 listed) shares tumbling by 12%. The Debenhams announcement adds to general nervousness about December retail sales, after poor Eurozone retail PMIs from Markit yesterday. Marks & Spencer, for example, countered today's triumphant close by falling 2.3%, the largest daily dip of all FTSE 100 shares.

The question which needs answering is whether Debenhams represents the retail sector (and household consumption) as a whole or whether it has lost market share in a survival of the fittest Darwinian battle. We need to wait for John Lewis and the supermarkets to speak before the overall retail picture becomes clear.

What kept the FTSE bull running were rises in asset management (Aberdeen), property (Land Securities) and housebuilding (Persimmon) companies. Over the year, the shares to have had in your portfolio were airlines (IAG - BA & Iberia - and Easyjet both doubled their share values in 2013). The shares not to have held were gold mining stocks.

Other UK market metrics are similarly strong. Sterling registered gains during the year against almost all of its 16 major trading partner currencies and closed against the Dollar and Euro at $1.6575 and €83.13 respectively.

A 4.4% rise (Hometrack) or 3.2% (Land Registry) in UK property prices (after a 0.6% fall in 2012) and a return to 2008 levels of mortgage approval numbers showed a healthy but not dangerous recovery in the housing market. Doubters should pay special attention to net mortgage lending which only rose marginally, due the increase in new loans being offset by a similar increase in repayments.

So all in all a strong end to a good year for the UK economy, which has more than surprised on the upside.

St George has undoubtedly been our Saviour but keeping expectations satisfied will be more difficult in 2014.

I nevertheless enjoin Stodge and another richard and Mr. Brooke to join in a goodwill toast to the combined promise of the New Year and George Osborne.

malcolmg

Avery, that is your recovery heading south , we will be back in the dodo 2014

fitalass

Having just watched this latest effort on Youtube from Ed Miliband, you can see why he will not win the next GE. There is no passion, conviction, or even a bit of natural charisma on display here. Like Gordon Brown before him, Miliband simple isn't up to or comfortable in the role of being a Prime Minister in waiting. But unlike lucky Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband will have to try and persuade the electorate rather than just relying on a coronation by Labour MP's to get the keys to No10. He is going to be a drag on Labour's turnout vote in 2015.

Twitter
Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband 30 Dec
As we approach the year of the Scottish referendum, I think we’re #BetterTogether – this is why: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd0BeoPDqaI …

isam

Not my normal kind of bet, but isn't 8/11 about Theresa May to be Home Sec at the next GE a bit generous? Paddy Power

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, perhaps because even so-called light drugs (such as cannabis) tend to involve widespread death and woe (Mexico, in the example of cannabis, has seen thousands killed in recent years) whereas skiing tends not to, and when it does it affects only those who participate willingly.

anotherDave

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, perhaps because even so-called light drugs (such as cannabis) tend to involve widespread death and woe (Mexico, in the example of cannabis, has seen thousands killed in recent years) whereas skiing tends not to, and when it does it affects only those who participate willingly.

That's because they're illegal.

MarkSenior

@Avery
The £ fell against the Euro over the last 12 months .

fitalass

According to the latest reports, this was a freak accident. Schumacher had stopped to help someone who had fallen, but he caught his ski when he turned around and flipped over hitting his head despite wearing a helmet. Hopefully the very swift medical response will ensure he safely recovers, his poor family must still be in shock.

SeanT said:

Re poor Schumacher in Grenoble Hospital, I can't help wondering:

Why is it OK to take risks with your life in pursuit of a buzz by downhill skiing, but it is immoral to take risks with your life in pursuit of a buzz by smoking heroin?

HYUFD

LD to Lab voters clearly dislike Cameron even more than Labour voters and like Miliband even more. However, they almost certainly dislike Blair more than Labour voters who stuck with the reds after Iraq. They are basically sandal-wearing pacifists, who probably work in the public sector or lecture at a university and read the Guardian. Those still voting Liberal Democrat are what I call 'proper' liberals, ie economically and socially liberal who do not see the LDs as the left-wing conscience of Labour (which it should not be, the Green Party already fulfils that role!)

HYUFD

fitalass But they said the same about Ted Heath, Ed Miliband could still scrape in if people are fed up enough of the government, but he will be a one-termer like Heath if he does win

fitalass

Indeed Morris. And can I also wish you all the best with your writing career in 2014.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Fitalass, venison burgers are indeed delicious. Much better than beef, and with practically no fat either.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Fitalass, I hadn't heard that bit. I do hope Schumacher can make a full recovery, but it still looks very dicey.

Mr. T, to be fair, the then Chief Scientific Officer said a few years ago that by the end of this century Antarctica would be the only habitably landmass on Earth.

You might say the doom-mongering has plateaued for several years.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Fitalass, thanks

AveryLP

MarkSenior said:

@Avery
The £ fell against the Euro over the last 12 months .

Mark

I know that and was even planning to footnote you in my earlier post with a note to that effect. But the reason for this - as you well know - is that the Euro recovered from a distressed low during the year, whereas Sterling appreciated from a level which had been stable (or gently rising in real terms) since 2010.

Sometimes your attention to detail shines revelatory light. Not I fear in this case.

MrJones

SeanT said:

The warmists are losing it. They remind me of religious nutters forever predicting an apocalypse that never quite happens. As the absence of warming grows, so their predictions of warming get crazier:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate

That basically means we are all going to die by 2100, so you might as well drink that decent claret tonight.

On the other hand they're also quietly admitting the temperature flat-lining they've been denying for fifteen years.

From the link

"He added: "Sceptics may also point to the 'hiatus' of temperatures since the end of the 20th century, but there is increasing evidence that this inaptly named hiatus is not seen in other measures of the climate system, and is almost certainly temporary."

GeoffM

anotherDave said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, perhaps because even so-called light drugs (such as cannabis) tend to involve widespread death and woe (Mexico, in the example of cannabis, has seen thousands killed in recent years) whereas skiing tends not to, and when it does it affects only those who participate willingly.

That's because they're illegal.

Indeed. Legalising drugs will cut out most of the crime involved in supply and and would allow people to harm themselves if they wish to. Just as long as they do not expect socialised taxpayer-provided treatment afterwards.

If it only harms that individual then a person should be allowed to get on with it. For the rare occasions where it is likely to harm innocent passers-by ... well that's why we should also legalise concealed carry sidearms.

Freggles

HYUFD said:

LD to Lab voters clearly dislike Cameron even more than Labour voters and like Miliband even more. However, they almost certainly dislike Blair more than Labour voters who stuck with the reds after Iraq. They are basically sandal-wearing pacifists, who probably work in the public sector or lecture at a university and read the Guardian. Those still voting Liberal Democrat are what I call 'proper' liberals, ie economically and socially liberal who do not see the LDs as the left-wing conscience of Labour (which it should not be, the Green Party already fulfils that role!)

I don't wear sandals.

Can I take this opportunity to say that this shows the advantage of Ed over David. He would have fought the battle of 2005 in 2015, too right wing to take the anti Coalition lib dems. This also illustrates how lucky Ed is: in any other election, being a liberal lefty would be electorally disastrous, but since the Lib dems have abandoned the Left, it opens uplots of space for a broad left Labour party. It also helps that Ukip are splitting the Right, which is another side effect of Coalition.

But then again a Scottish Tory called fitalass has a gut feeling about it so that obviously means we should ignore the data

fitalass

But Ted Heath was not a politician living in a digital age, a harsh and unforgiving medium for those not comfortable in their own skin when placed in front of a far more demanding and less servile electorate and media.

HYUFD said:

fitalass But they said the same about Ted Heath, Ed Miliband could still scrape in if people are fed up enough of the government, but he will be a one-termer like Heath if he does win

MarkSenior

SeanT said:

Mark Senior:

You owe me cash money. You lost your bet on Greek GDP growth in 2013.

I'd say send the money to a charity but, nah, I want to spend it on a bottle of nice wine for myself.

If you email me tomknoxbooks@gmail.com I'll give you an address where you can send the cheque.

As the final GDP figures for 2013 will not be out for some weeks yet I have not yet lost though I concede that is the most likely outcome . I have noted your email address for the correct time ,

MrJones

FPT

The Quenelle gesture means "up yours." The placement of the hand signifying exactly how much. Saying it's a reverse Nazi salute is a load of nonsense. It does have some political significance related to some comedian being charged with saying something or other but the gesture itself is quite literally "up yours."

HYUFD

Freggles Indeed, and yet again shows how the idiotic Tories opposing AV could well let Ed in Downing Street through the back door!

Fitalass He was in the TV age, same thing, and since the JFK-Nixon debate personality and presentation had become even more important, which was why Wilson beat Heath in 3 elections out of 4 (1966, Feb and Oct 1974) despite Heath's surprise 1970 win.

Sean T I think it is off-piste skiing which is the danger, rather than skiing itself

AveryLP

Goodbye 2013

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmBawC_pvEo

"Tata Madiba" sung by Baleka Mbete

*tears of sorrow"

MrJones

SeanT said:

MrJones said:

SeanT said:

The warmists are losing it. They remind me of religious nutters forever predicting an apocalypse that never quite happens. As the absence of warming grows, so their predictions of warming get crazier:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate

That basically means we are all going to die by 2100, so you might as well drink that decent claret tonight.

On the other hand they're also quietly admitting the temperature flat-lining they've been denying for fifteen years.

From the link

"He added: "Sceptics may also point to the 'hiatus' of temperatures since the end of the 20th century, but there is increasing evidence that this inaptly named hiatus is not seen in other measures of the climate system, and is almost certainly temporary."

I love the phrase "inaptly named hiatus". What would he rather we call it? "F*cking awkward fact which should be ignored"?

And then this:


"Sherwood accepts his team's work on the role of clouds cannot definitively rule out that future temperature rises will lie at the lower end of projections. "But," he said, ".... Such a thing is not out of the question but requires a lot of faith."

Er, yes. That's very true. This whole warming thing, as of this moment, requires an awful lot of FAITH.

As it crumbles I expect the last remnants to become a fully fledged cult that sacrifice duracell batteries on bonfires at Samhain.

GeoffM

fitalass said:

But Ted Heath was not a politician living in a digital age, a harsh and unforgiving medium for those not comfortable in their own skin when placed in front of a far more demanding and less servile electorate and media.

HYUFD said:

fitalass But they said the same about Ted Heath, Ed Miliband could still scrape in if people are fed up enough of the government, but he will be a one-termer like Heath if he does win

Who knows what being outed would have done to Heath's public persona and attitudes. It would have drastically changed the relationship between politics, the media and the public.

Richard_Tyndall

MrJones said:

FPT

The Quenelle gesture means "up yours." The placement of the hand signifying exactly how much. Saying it's a reverse Nazi salute is a load of nonsense. It does have some political significance related to some comedian being charged with saying something or other but the gesture itself is quite literally "up yours."

Unfortunately that is not true. The gesture has been widely adopted as an anti-semitic statement with a new 'game' developing where people try and make it in the most provocative place including synagogues and at the wailing wall in Jerusalem.

I am not saying that is a reason to ban it but to try and claim it means something other than the specific anti-semitic implication is rather naive.

Sunil_Prasannan

Happy New Year from Moscow, Comrades!

(only kidding!)

MrJones

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrJones said:

FPT

The Quenelle gesture means "up yours." The placement of the hand signifying exactly how much. Saying it's a reverse Nazi salute is a load of nonsense. It does have some political significance related to some comedian being charged with saying something or other but the gesture itself is quite literally "up yours."

Unfortunately that is not true. The gesture has been widely adopted as an anti-semitic statement with a new 'game' developing where people try and make it in the most provocative place including synagogues and at the wailing wall in Jerusalem.

I am not saying that is a reason to ban it but to try and claim it means something other than the specific anti-semitic implication is rather naive.

"The gesture has been widely adopted as"

Freggles

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

HYUFD said:

LD to Lab voters clearly dislike Cameron even more than Labour voters and like Miliband even more. However, they almost certainly dislike Blair more than Labour voters who stuck with the reds after Iraq. They are basically sandal-wearing pacifists, who probably work in the public sector or lecture at a university and read the Guardian. Those still voting Liberal Democrat are what I call 'proper' liberals, ie economically and socially liberal who do not see the LDs as the left-wing conscience of Labour (which it should not be, the Green Party already fulfils that role!)

I don't wear sandals.

Can I take this opportunity to say that this shows the advantage of Ed over David. He would have fought the battle of 2005 in 2015, too right wing to take the anti Coalition lib dems. This also illustrates how lucky Ed is: in any other election, being a liberal lefty would be electorally disastrous, but since the Lib dems have abandoned the Left, it opens uplots of space for a broad left Labour party. It also helps that Ukip are splitting the Right, which is another side effect of Coalition.

But then again a Scottish Tory called fitalass has a gut feeling about it so that obviously means we should ignore the data

Ed is indeed lucky as a LOTO, but I feel his luck will run out the moment he enters number 10. He hasn't a clue what to do in the face of economic reality, he will be forced to follow exactly the same policies as the Coalition, and the screams of anguish from his betrayed and aggrieved supporters will be heart-rending - but also hilarious.

I was worried for a while that he might try to be a genuine lefty, but the terrible fate of Hollande has pretty much scotched that possibility. I am sure Ed has noticed what is happening in Paris.

Yeah, but I'd take austerity from a lefty nerd over an entitled posh bully any day. He'd have to implement similar cuts but would soften the blow against the poor better than Cameron. We might get a mansion tax or similar. For once the elite would be given a bloody nose.

MikeK

Never mind about the Lib/dem switchers - twitchers is more like it.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL PB POSTERS, LURCHERS AND OCCASIONAL VISITORS.

Now my forecast for British politics in 2014.

1) UKIP will come top in the EU elections and do very well in the local elections that they contest.

2) UKIP will continue to gain members, adherents and supporters.

3) By contrast, Tory membership will again decline and the recent rise of membership for the Labour party will go into reverse.

4) By years end the government will be a coalition in name only. Name calling, ministerial walkouts and resignations will be a symptom of relationships gone bad between the coalition partners. The only thing holding them together is the 5 year law.

5) The recent rise in UK industrial output and increased GDP will suddenly grind to a halt in the spring.

6) A great freeze starting in the 2nd week of January will last, intermittently for 3 months.

So ends my forecast. Cheers!

fitalass

I wasn't thinking along those lines to be honest, Heath just never came across as someone who was particularly comfortable in the new TV media age full stop. He certainly wasn't able to hide his antipathy towards Mrs T in later years when ever they found themselves forced into public meetings.

GeoffM said:

fitalass said:

But Ted Heath was not a politician living in a digital age, a harsh and unforgiving medium for those not comfortable in their own skin when placed in front of a far more demanding and less servile electorate and media.

HYUFD said:

fitalass But they said the same about Ted Heath, Ed Miliband could still scrape in if people are fed up enough of the government, but he will be a one-termer like Heath if he does win

Who knows what being outed would have done to Heath's public persona and attitudes. It would have drastically changed the relationship between politics, the media and the public.

AveryLP

In memory of those we have lost in 2013.

A compassionate, progressive tribute.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRTZqGihuaA

peter_from_putney

Wishing all PBers a very happy New Year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Uo0JAUWijM

AveryLP

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Happy New Year from Moscow, Comrades!

(only kidding!)

You are fourteen days early, Comrade.

DoubleCarpet

2014 season now open

Firstly - a very happy New Year to everyone at PB, to posters and lurkers alike, and many thanks to Mike, TSE, David, Henry, and Harry (and anyone I've forgotten!) for their sterling work on PB during 2013.

Thanks to everyone who took part in the Election Game this year - the new season is now open and the Leaders & Finance game is available here:

http://www.electiongame.co.uk/leaders-finance-2014/

Entries close on Sunday 12th Jan.

I'll also be wrapping up the PB 2013 prediction competition results, and will aim to put together a 2014 competition too.

Many thanks - and good luck with your betting in 2014,


DC

MrJones

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrJones said:

FPT

The Quenelle gesture means "up yours." The placement of the hand signifying exactly how much. Saying it's a reverse Nazi salute is a load of nonsense. It does have some political significance related to some comedian being charged with saying something or other but the gesture itself is quite literally "up yours."

Unfortunately that is not true. The gesture has been widely adopted as an anti-semitic statement with a new 'game' developing where people try and make it in the most provocative place including synagogues and at the wailing wall in Jerusalem.

I am not saying that is a reason to ban it but to try and claim it means something other than the specific anti-semitic implication is rather naive.

Actually it does seem to have moved on a bit since i first heard of it. The media are still lying about the root though. It's more the French version of Respect than FN.

Charles

Isn't it really a case of confirmation bias though (think that is the technical term).

If you ask someone how they are going to vote and they identify as a LD to Lab switcher and then ask them who will make the best PM there will be a tendency to vote for EdM because they don't want to look like a numpty.

If we knew that they thought Ed would be the best PM and *therefore* were switching to Labour that would be fascinating. Otherwise it is a bit meaningless

Off topic

Happy new year everyone. 28C and sunny here by the beach. Trying not to gloat too much

Richard_Tyndall

MrJones said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrJones said:

FPT

The Quenelle gesture means "up yours." The placement of the hand signifying exactly how much. Saying it's a reverse Nazi salute is a load of nonsense. It does have some political significance related to some comedian being charged with saying something or other but the gesture itself is quite literally "up yours."

Unfortunately that is not true. The gesture has been widely adopted as an anti-semitic statement with a new 'game' developing where people try and make it in the most provocative place including synagogues and at the wailing wall in Jerusalem.

I am not saying that is a reason to ban it but to try and claim it means something other than the specific anti-semitic implication is rather naive.

Actually it does seem to have moved on a bit since i first heard of it. The media are still lying about the root though. It's more the French version of Respect than FN.

My understanding is that the man who is credited as inventing it did so as part of his campaign running as an anti-zionist in the 2009 European elections. I am not sure how it can be claimed that the French media are lying about that given he is happily admitting it himself.

SouthamObserver

This is a momentous New Year. I hope that this time in 12 months we are all reconvening after a No vote in Scotland, even though I would probably vote Yes if I lived there.

To Easterross, Fitalass, DavidL etc, we don't share political views, but I am proud you come from the same country as me. May it ever be thus.