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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP
The Telegraph is leading this morning on attacks by Nick Clegg and Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander, on UKIP with them pitching the party as the only one which is enthusiastic about remaining in the EU.
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- Seats on buses to London from Bulgaria and Romania booked up 'for days'
- EU too power hungry
- UK courts will be able to over-rule ECHR
- Romanians and Bulgarians given free access to GPs
Of, course, it's worth remembering that the last headline would be rewritten to: "Brits denied access to health services in Spain" if it were all reversed...
By the way, in general I am much more of a fan of the insurance system they have in France than the straight 'free' system we have. It makes it clear to users what the cost of healthcare is, while still offering universal coverage.
Is EH111 for Brits only? Or does it only cover holidays?
Of course, that still half what the Americans spend...
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-474_en.htm
Maybe Felix's friends are referring to that, rather than the official legal position.
1. Doctors are much better paid in America
2. Drugs are much more expensive (because, by law, Medicaid and Medicare are not allowed to use their monopsony position to negotiate for better prices)
3. Insurance for doctors is heinously expensive
and
4. People have a lot more medical procedures
A nurse who whistleblowed at the same hospital has been made an OBE.
A good call on both counts. Bailey in particular deserves some recognition at some of the sh*t some people (some sadly on here) threw at her.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25549054
"... New Year's Honours list, which features more women than men for the first time.
"Women - 611 of them - make up the majority (51%) of the list - the previous highest proportion was 47%."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25550751
Otherwise I agree. Such encouragement and recognition is needed.
Labour are reasonably pro EU as well, so the kippers look likely to remain noisy hecklers rather than anything more effective.
In a lot of countries, including Japan, residents (nationals or not) who want subsidized healthcare need to sign up for some kind of contributory scheme, which may be part of national insurance or may be something else. Obviously if you prefer not to join the relevant scheme and hope to return to the UK and use the NHS if you get sick then you won't be covered, but apart from that, is there a suggestion somewhere that non-Spanish citizens are being denied access to the relevant schemes (NI or whatever they do for the unemployed etc) that Spanish people would be joining?
I blame the fact I have been baking bread and have not yet had my first coffee of the day.
More background on Mrs Donnelly and the utter failure at Stafford Hospital:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-23487863
I would fully agree with that. Their local internal contradictions in Cornwall notwithstanding, I've never understood why the Lib Dems haven't been more forthright in their support for the EU. It might be a minority position but it's a substantially bigger minority than they're currently receiving support from and with no-one else fishing in that pond, offers plenty of opportunities.
I think Mike's being a bit pessimistic in suggesting that the LDs could struggle to win a single MEP. That's not outside the realms of possibility but it really will be a shocking night if they don't keep at one in at least one of the three southern constituencies outside London. Finishing fifth, on the other hand, is a good deal more likely given that the Greens have a strong record in these elections.
In Leicester we are shortly to have our CQC inspection, and I expect it to be damning in many ways. I shall be interested to see the process and in particular whether it recognises the serious issues or gets bogged down in trivia. CQC reports on their website usually are damning of management.
I am glad the Stafford two got named in the honours list. More deserving than some superannuated politician. And then this: http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/Stafford-Hospital-whistleblower-comes-shadows/story-18838037-detail/story.html
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25544352
3 billion USD of arms is 3 times what all EU countries have given in aid to the refugees.
Saudi is possibly the most vile of all the ME countries, though some real competition in that league.
"If you want Britain to stay in the EU, you've got to vote for a party that is committed to keeping Britain in the EU. That means the Lib Dems."
Labour simply is incapable of getting value for money when spending our money.
Very easy for the media and UKIP to pick them off though, they only have to quote what Clegg and the rest said would happen if we didn't join the Euro.
Speaking of the euro, the Latvians will join shortly:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25332243
Sounds like rats joining a sinking ship to me, but there we are.
No-one knows what an MEP really does, let alone the differences between the parties' programmes. Until this happens the Euros are just a protest vote competition, between...
* Protest against he EU
* Protest against the govt,
* Protest against local govt
* Protest against a specific party
...or all four. UKIP are set up to do well.
On the NHS, we all have our anecdotes, good and bad (inevitably given the size of the organisation), but the polling is unambiguous that most people find it pretty good most of the time. That doesn't mean that it can't be improved or that we should treat any criticism as heresy. Generally in any organisation the people who actually work for it are some of the most critical, but they clearly need a hearing anyway.
It will please a few uber Cleggites and their ostrich faction of inept spinners, but the fact is the public just aren't listening anymore and haven't been for years.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
There is no cure for calamity Clegg's toxicity. Either enough lib dems MPs finally realise that and try to do something about it to save their own skins, or Clegg and his ostrich faction manage to cling on just long enough for a ruinous election and leave the many, many years of rebuilding to those who bottled taking action. Bottled it like David Miliband did against Brown.
The Pirate Party got 17% of the vote in the last Swedish EU Parliament election. It got a fraction of that in the subsequent national poll.
In fact, it might be worth keeping an eye on the EU Parliament vote for the Pirate vote in a few member states
Critism of "our" NHS is greeted by Labour supporters (especially on here!) as being the most heinous crime imaginable.
In the real world, the general public don't love the NHS, or hate the NHS. It's something that has always been there, that we probably take a little to for granted, and it's something we'd rather like to keep. We're reasonably happy with it, and we'll all have excellent, average, and poor anecdotes about it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25438586
There will be a crossword. This time compiled by Aaron Bell
In Brussels/Strasbourg I have 10 MEPs. Because I am pretty well infomred about politics, I know three out of that ten. I could not name the other 7, or the leaders of the parties in the European parliament. In a working system, I should know exactly who they are, what they have done and what their promise is.
In this context, a pro-EU position does not stand a chance. It is impossible to engage in these elections in a straightforward way.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25438587
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/000cdcd9d4/Turnout-(1979-2009).html
- it's drifted down from 62 to 43 over 30 years, though it varies wildly by country, with e.g. Latvia nearly 3 times as interested as Lithuania.
My evening job is translation, mostly EU documents, and it has to be said that most of the legislation is clearly useful to business (e.g. I've just done 4000 words on standards for marine fire-fighting equipment, which will mean the same on-board fire extinguishers can be sold everywhere) but profoundly unexciting, and it's often not obvious how e.g. Labour and Tories could stake out different positions on the subject.
As EiT has said, the main source of information for many people is NGOs, who identify an issue that is being decided at EU level and mobilise support for their position. When the EU was deciding to ban testing of cosmetics on animals (forcing shampoo into rabbits' eyes over 3 days etc.), there was intense lobbying by both industry and animal welfare groups of every MEP on the key committee, and our regular supporters got stuck in with emails to all the key people. (We won.) Party lines are less sharp than in Westminster - much of the EPP (Christian Democrats) is reliably pro-industry, but the other MEPs generally look at issues from case to case and don't always vote as a bloc.
http://youtu.be/5m1jJ6gmo2Y
Panelbase/Scottish National Party
Sample size: 1,012 adults in Scotland
Fieldwork: 13-20 December
(+/- change from 30 Aug - 5 Sep Panelbase/Sunday Times)
Scottish Parliament constituency vote
SNP: 40% (-5)
Labour: 32% (n/c)
Conservative: 15% (+3)
Lib Dem: 5% (n/c)
Other: 8% (+2)
Scottish Parliament regional list vote
SNP: 40% (-6)
Labour: 31% (+3)
Conservative: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 5% (+1)
Green: 5% (-1)
Other: 5% (+1)
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/dec/final-poll-2013-shows-substantial-snp-lead
SNP 4/6
Lab 5/4
oth 150/1
Their post 2010 performance at local elections ~15%, is much the same as their past EU election numbers. A PR election.
1999: 12.7%
2004: 14.9%
2009: 13.7%
(numbers all taken from Wikipedia.)
From where I'm standing it seems to me that what you describe tends to be reactions to people who are having a go at the NHS in general on the basis of individual cases - posts like "Ha, how can anyone but thick Labour voters say the NHS is any good after Stafford?" are pretty common. Most don't come out and say "I want to scrap the NHS" but it's pretty clear that's what some of them mean, and of course a strong reaction to that is reasonable if one thinks it's important.
You see it more here because some posters are commendably frank about their views (possibly since they're not standing for election), whereas Tory politicians muffle any leanings they may have to get rid of the thing. But the suspicion that it's what most Tories basically think is widespread and a very substantial drag on the Tory vote.
Well, I listened to Nick's New Year Message and anodyne stuff it is for the most part. As others have said, it's probably a good idea for the Party to be unashamedly pro-EU though always with the caveat that it's far from perfect and needs ongoing reform.
Interesting also to hear the differentiation on the economy and the three successes mentioned were cutting taxes, freezing petrol prices and free school meals. Whether George Osborne would put those three at the top of his list we'll have to ask Avery.
I thought the attack line on Labour was intriguing - on Europe it was more about not having a line but on the economy it was back to pre-2010 and nowhere was the iinference that a vote for UKIP might also wreck the recovery by handing power to Labour which I suspect will be the main Conservative attack line on UKIP.
"Don't let Labour ruin it" is an old message and whether it has the resonance it once did remains to be seen. It's not just about statistics and indicators - individuals can be doing well but that doesn't mean they don't resent the loss of a local service or they know someone who has suffered through benefit cuts.
Civitas produce some interesting pamphlets on different healthcare models.
http://www.civitas.org.uk/nhs/index.php
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531440/Sold-Flights-buses-Romanians-Bulgarians-head-UK.html#ixzz2p2tizPAX
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And those above are presumably the well off. I can see long lines of Transilvanian hoi polloi trecking to the UK by all and any means.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/tea-at-22-michael-fallon-on-jobs-europe-and-ukip/
I'm interested in what this means for Labour at the Euros. If the LibDems are drawing the anti-EU heat, that may deflect fire away from Labour's pro-EU tendencies.
A few posters have mentioned the Greens. The Euros really should be crucial for them; a PR election, held at a time of disenchantment with the other pro-environment party (the LibDems), and when for the first time they have both a (Westminster) MP and control of a council. Thus far I haven't seen any sign that they're capitalising on it.
It's probably another reason why UKIP are doing well. If warming scepticism is your major political issue, who else would you vote for?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25558709
When I worked in Norway I was refused treatment on the EHIC system on the grounds that since I was working there rather than just visiting the system did not apply to me and I therefore had to pay for all treatment on my credit card.
I did eventually get the money back through my insurers who then took over the case against the Norwegians and I am sure got their money back but the system is not as straightforward as people seem to think. Though I have had no experience of it I understand that tourists in Spain and France have had similar problems.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25558632
Miles better than the bloody awful failed second form offering of recent years, which replaced the portcullis and Britannia with little chopped up bits of the royal crest.
"My evening job is translation, mostly EU documents, and it has to be said that most of the legislation is clearly useful to business (e.g. I've just done 4000 words on standards for marine fire-fighting equipment, which will mean the same on-board fire extinguishers can be sold everywhere) but profoundly unexciting, and it's often not obvious how e.g. Labour and Tories could stake out different positions on the subject."
Nick, do you really believe that 4000 words on the standards of marine fire fighting equipment is useful to business?
I think this is exactly the sort of thing that makes the EU so unpopular. What small businessman who wants to sell fire extinguishers (not exactly cutting edge technology) has the time, the money or the ability to cope with regulations like this? In the name of the single market the vast majority of potential market participants are excluded for the benefit of the big boys.
I do a number of cases involving EU law. It is always incredibly complicated with large numbers of different documents being referred to and inter-related to each other. The eurolexis sites hardly help as they are extremely difficult to make sense of. Where I have to explain this to business people the invariable response is irritation verging on anger and complete confusion about why it has to be so complicated.
I cannot help feeling that the Commission and the Parliament exist in the sort of bubble that Southam describes where they genuinely think that they are being useful and productive churning out vast quantities of regulations on matters that simply don't need regulated at all, let alone at EU level.
How many anti EU speakers claim a very high share of our legislation is produced by this regulation factory? As others have said the EU is its own worst enemy. If they concentrated on the important things and took even more long lunches in Brussel's fabulous restaurants they might become more popular and the Lib Dem strategy might have better prospects.
As any fule knows the Kingdom of Wee-Fr'Eck is the honey-pot! All that oil; all that progressiveness; all those wonderful banks! Someone is selling the Western Eastern* Macaedonian and Dacian tribes a pap....
* Sorry; Hoare-Laval moment....
As any fule knows the Kingdom of Wee-Fr'Eck is the honey-pot! All that oil; all that progressiveness; all those wonderful banks! Someone is selling the Western Eastern * Macaedonian and Dacian tribes a pap....
* Hoare-Laval moment.... :oops:
"In the protected spaces, the electrical circuits that are required to trigger the system shall be conducted in fireproof cables, in accordance with the I.E.C. standards. The pipe systems necessary for hydraulic or pneumatic use shall be made of steel or other heat-resistant material approved by the national authority."
If I'm hoping to supply fire extinguishing systems to ships across the EU, it's useful to know that the cables need to be fireproof to a specific standard and that it's OK to use an alternative to steel piping if I can get it locally approved. I'm not sure that it could be worded much more briefly without losing precision. The other paragraphs deal with everything from the warning systems that prevent crew being randomly sprayed with CO2 to the electrical backups to prevent the fire burning up the circuits needed to trigger the sprays. The Greens are doing OK in the polls and seem to have supporters who are entirely, ostentatiously indifferent to tactical voting appeals. I think they'll have problems in Brighton and Hove as they've collided with reality there, but they'll do inconveniently well elsewhere for us rival progressives.
IIRC (and it was two or three months ago), he said that about 80% of Latvia's foreign trade is conducted in Euros, so as the country is massively affected by the Eurozone anyway it makes a lot more sense to be in it.
FWIW, I am far from convinced that it is a sinking ship. Having survived intact throughout the last five years, it's proven remarkably resiliant and while the Eurocrisis isn't quite out of the woods yet, the situation's far better than it was a year ago, or two years ago. Indeed, the consequences of the crisis - greater co-operation and oversight combined with structural reform in the Med countries, slow though it is - should help to solidify the bloc in the future.
We can reasonably expect the Eurozone to expand again in 2015 with Lithuania. Who the next entrant will be after that, and when, is a trickier question.
But he did lead me to believe there would be 29m coming over... I'll have to take my shed off the right move website if your prediction is right.
Secondly, there are now apparently 4,000 Brits working and living in Romania. Many of them have been incentivised to start businesses there by schemes designed to encourage inward investment which is sorely needed.
Thirdly, it was claimed that those who were coming were not coming on spec but because they already had a job here (unlike the Poles etc who did come here on spec).
Well we will see. At the moment the UK is the job creation centre of the EU and if I was young, ambitious and Romanian I might at least think about the possibilities of working in the most exciting city on earth.