Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message
It’s extremely rare for me to oppose a statement made on PB.com by Mike Smithson but his suggestion that the United Kingdom should have paid political adverts fills me with absolute dread. Why?
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The vilest American campaign I saw was the 2002 Georgia senate race.
The incumbent, Democrat Max Clelland voted against one of the Homeland Security acts proposed by George W Bush.
He had ads run against him implying he was soft on terrorist/not a patriot/a coward.
Now you might think, all's fair in politics, except, Senator Clelland is a triple amputee Vietnam veteran, whilst George W Bush avoided Vietnam by getting a position with the Texas National Air Guard and Dick Cheney, used so many deferments, he missed the Vietnam war.
The sad thing is, it worked and he lost his seat.
Mr. Kelly, cheers for that response, although I'm not sure that pointing to eurozone nations (not sure why you picked France and Germany instead of Greece and Spain) necessarily fills me with confidence in your reasoning.
*Innocent face* and on that bombshell goodbye.
And of course the apportionment of broadcast time via PPBs at least has some kind of fairness to it, rather than being directed by party finances.
I was going to quote Kenneth Clarke's excellent explanation from the 1990s of why a separate currency is not an essential feature of a sovereign nation, but that would probably bring you out in a rash. I chose France and Germany because they're the largest Eurozone countries (along with Italy) - if you still think of them as sovereign countries then that ought to tell you something.
NewStatesman Miliband makes his first big spending pledge: a Labour government won't cut the NHS bit.ly/12F2g1b
We'll wait and see. The eurozone is heading towards deeper political and economic integration.
glenoglaza1 Farage: I worked in the City for 20 years - worked bloody hard every day ..,untill lunchtime
Standard Tory paid advert:
"Only the Conservatives can beat Labour at the General Election! (with accompanying bar chart!)"
Standard Labour paid advert:
"Only Labour can beat the Tories at the General Election! (with accompanying bar chart!)"
Standard LibDem paid advert:
"LibDems - losing here!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_-TlOtiuNs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7AogiXXrHc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etVTsXUrnp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7EIBzZ6sxo
As you can see, most of them actually inject a lot of fact into the debate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DC2EKgpf55k&feature=youtu.be
Is that how Labour will defend South Shields I wonder? Conservatives - out of touch toffs .....UKIP - out to lunch toffs....
I have to say the reaction to this is rather reminiscent of someone responding to any movement towards market mechanisms in the NHS with claiming we'd end up with pre-Obamacare American healthcare. It's a nonsense.
Ed Miliband will lose the next election unless he rejects the “misery and despair” of austerity and promises to reverse the Coalition’s cuts, Labour’s biggest union backer has warned."
Mr McCluskey was recently re-elected to another five-year term as general secretary of Unite. The union has donated more than £7 million to Labour since the 2010 election, making it the party’s biggest financial backer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10012950/Len-McCluskey-Labour-must-reject-austerity-or-lose-2015-election.html
The only real difference between France and Germany on the one hand and Greece and Cyprus on the other is that of relative economic might and circumstance. That does not mean that Germany or France are any more sovereign than Greece or Cyprus, simply that they have not yet been put in a position where that lack of sovereignty is made explicit.
I maybe wrong, but it's my view and fear.
Or because the President of France can go to war in Mali, but the Governor of California can't.
"As institutions, parties need to be pretty rigid and top-down in order to project themselves nationally, defend their reputations and maintain doctrinal coherence and unity across a whole swathe of issues. There is a level of collective discipline – even bureaucracy – that is needed to manage a political party which is culturally quite different to the freedom in community organisations to decide locally what you want to achieve and how you go about getting it."
http://labourlist.org/2013/04/sorry-arnie-labours-a-political-party-not-a-community-group/
Well said, well argued.
alexmassie More evidence of (Scottish) Tory woe and decline. The Orange Order comes out for Labour. scotsman.com/news/orange-or… #endtimes
"Meanwhile the newest member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee has been sounding an optimistic note on the UK economy.
Growth will pick up pace this year, according to Ian McCafferty, who has sought to play down fears the country has slipped into an unprecedented triple-dip recession"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-manufacturing-services-italy-government
We reduced the deficit by a third in our first two years in government, mostly by massive cuts to public investment, which we now understand were a big mistake and have damaged the economy. We've also now realised that trying to reduce the deficit further while the economy isn't growing is self-defeating, so we're not even going to try to get back on track until it does grow. We won't miss our fiscal targets, since we no longer really have any. If the IMF understood that we're not really going anywhere, perhaps they would stop telling us to change course."
http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-deficit-is-falling.html
As opposed to the de facto 100% of the votes that they have at present. You failed to explain yesterday how 10% would not represent an advance on 0%.
EDIT: Cheaper to buy it elsewhere, see Mr Eek's post up thread.
OMG. Must be some spare capacity in RG45 7EG. That author is beyond help.
Total, unmitigated Tory failure.
A millstone to hang around the neck of the British Conservative Party for all time.
Anyway - who says you are going to have 10% (apart from the SNP)?
All of those would have been much better examples to give. Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures.</blockquote>
Link please?
You mean Scotland is underperforming as part of the union? Wait a moment - perhaps the union might just be the problem?
Everyone is forgetting the big unresolved issue, that will dominate the divorce negotiations.
Who gets to keep Gordon Brown, post independence?
Consistency, my love, above all else consistency!
'Would make a better Leader than Cameron' UKIP VI (net)
Osborne: -56
Gove: -21
Hague: +6
May: -8
"James, I must one of the dwindling band of people who knew Arthur Donaldson. He was a very good speaker with a dry wit, just like the late Oliver Brown. The horrors of the Great War and the enormous casulties and the lies of 'Land fit for heroes' that never materialised, I think were the reasons why he opposed consription in 1939 and set up an organisation to help those who tried to avoid concription. He opposed women being sent to war work in England.
He was a very good speaker and with his easy speaking manner the Govt of the day may have thought he could undermine the conscription of men and women so they had him interned. I am sure his widow Violet said there was a lot of fabricated reports of his activities and she strongly denied he was sympathetic to the German cause. He was released without any charges being made.
I am puzzled as to the PB Tory who said he was throw out of the SNP in 1940. He certainly was not. Are they getting mixed up with Douglas Young who was another who opposed the war but for different reasons? There was a power struggle in 1942 with different groups in the SNP as to how the party should proceed, a gradualist approach or the fundamentalist approach. The latter grouping won and some left the party to form the National Convention.
He became leader of the Party in 1960 until he stepped down in 1969. He became rather deaf in his old age but it didn't stop him campaiging for Gordon Wilson in the 1979 and 1983 General Elections."
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2013/04/if-any-prominent-pollsters-from-ipsos.html?showComment=1366306054615#c8264948228681957442
Innocent face......
I've come to the conclusion the best option for an independent Scotland would be its own currency, but have pretty active management of it to prevent oil volatility screwing with trade flows too much.
Come to think of it, that would be a marked improvement on most current party political broadcasts.
Absolutely. Over the last few decades, the SNP's policy positions have been far more consistent than the UK Labour or Conservatives parties.
Who gets to keep Gordon Brown, post independence?</blockquote>
He's a Brit as he's told us so often, so I assume that includes Rump status. I'll accept that you can change your 'gets to' to a 'has to' though. Look on the bright side, Baron Brown of Kirkcaldy may find it easier to get to the HoL if he relocates further south.
That's cos current borrowing is easily measured. "Structural" deficits on the other hand are a mirage. A convenient political conceit.
That answer was way to trite for you James. The ability to wage war has never been the one overriding definition of sovereignty.
</blockquote>
Given recent history I feel the ability to choose not to wage war is a pretty strong definition of sovereignty.
You're forgetting - we have it on the UK government's authority that Scotland was "extinguished" in 1707. There can hardly be a "monetary union", successful or otherwise, between countries that do not yet exist.
On a point of pedantry, I believe that the Scottish pound was retained for a century after the Act of Union. Actually, it's not a point of pedantry - it further illustrates the point that currency is not necessarily tied to sovereign nationhood.
I didn't say it was, but control over foreign policy is self-evidently a huge part of sovereignty.
a) To have a Scottish Pound pegged to sterling
b) To have sterling, but no say in rUK policy
c) To have a new, independent currency
d) To join the Euro
e) Something else
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100213458/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-how-ukip-is-worrying-labour-as-well-as-the-conservatives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Talking to various Labour people earlier this week, I was struck by the return of the party’s perennial worry: what to do about the concerns of skilled working-class voters on issues like immigration, crime and welfare.
From the backbenches to the Shadow Cabinet, there are people who worry that Labour under Ed Miliband doesn’t have the same grip on those voters that it did under Tony Blair. Even people who support Ed M, think he’s doing a good job and admire his work on cost-of-living issues privately confess to concerns here.
Nothing to see here...move along....UKIP only a threat to the Tories.....
Well, I've seen less honest expressions of the essence of Unionism.
I'm not sure why you are worrying about defence, asset/liability breakdown, currency, principles of independence, etc.
To quote another poster, @redcliffe62 so apologies if he/she has it wrong, for £500 a majority of Scots voters would vote "Out".
So save your breath. For £2.5bn (of our precious pounds sterling) you've got your result. A small price for Alex to pay, no?
I'm sure that Mike's proposition this morning had nothing to do with the Lib Dems' interest in seeing two of the larger parties knocking lumps out of each other while they miss the flak.
The one aspect of US elections that the UK could most usefully adopt would be primaries, particularly now that there are fixed-term parliaments. Again, there'd need to be spending limits and perhaps a degree of state support (e.g. a mini-booklet of the various candidates, in a centrally-defined format, delivered free through the post). The reality is that selection procedures which involve a mixture of not upsetting central staffs and appealing to hardcore activists, tend towards bland candidates who've come through the system. It is not one for outsiders, yet it is more outsiders that the public wants. Primaries *might* be a way of delivering that.
http://youtu.be/Zt9uDZF24x8
The Markit Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the month of April was unchanged on March's reading of 46.5. The sub-50 reading indicated a drop in activity in the region for the 19th time in the past 20 months with the single exception being the marginal increase registered in January of 2012.
The manufacturing sector saw its steepest rate of decline for four months, although the downturn in services eased slightly compared to March.
Markit noted that new business fell for the 31st successive month, with the rate of deterioration accelerating for the third month in a row to signal the steepest decline since December.
Germany continued to damper spirits in the euro area as both activity and new business fell at the steepest rates for six months. In fact, the drop in German activity was the first since last November.
Chris Williamson, Markit's Chief Economist, summarised the message:
The renewed decline in Germany will “raise fears that the region's largest growth engine has moved into reverse, thereby acting as a drag on the region at the same time as particularly steep downturns persist in France, Italy and Spain.”
The news from the Eurozone is unsettling central bankers, economists and market traders alike. The ECB is now expected to inject more stimulus into the Eurozone economy, particularly as inflation figures are moving downward. Even the hawkish bond traders are getting worried with PIMCO's Bill Gross, who manages a $289 bn mainly bond fund, calling for more direct investment in the region.
Boy George of course is sitting relatively pretty here in the UK with the economy, albeit sluggishly, moving in the right direction. It would be ironic if he and the UK were to be able to continue with his planned austerity plans while the Eurozone pumps itself up a massive stimulus. George would benefit from the borrowing without having the associated costs or risks.
As tim keeps reminding us, Sweden and Canada found it much easier to succeed with an austerity programme when its main trading neighbours had their feet firmly down on the borrowing pedal.
To quote another poster, @redcliffe62 so apologies if he/she has it wrong, for £500 a majority of Scots voters would vote "Out".
</blockquote>
There are also polls suggesting a strong majority would vote Yes if the Conservatives were certain to win the next UK election, others citing a fairer society as no.1 reason for voting for independence. As ever there are lots of different motivations, the Scots aren't unique in that regard.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d4547c-ab37-11e2-8c63-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2REIfywCm
"And therein lies the real problem with the charge of nebulousness: Mr Miliband is not guilty of it. If anything, his is the opposite fault. He is an astonishingly clear politician, one of the least tentative among postwar opposition leaders. The specific policies are not yet there but then they rarely are two years ahead of a general election. Still, it is already clear that he would tax the wealthy more, govern as an environmentalist and revise at least some of the government’s public service reforms.
He clearly does not regard the previous Labour government as ruinously profligate. He is clearly pro-European. He is clearly socially liberal. He is clearly less comfortable with free markets than his two predecessors or even Ed Balls, his own shadow chancellor. He is very clearly of a type: a member of the modern, metropolitan centre-left. He is the only prominent politician in the UK who invokes the word “ideology” as a good thing. His critics should stop cursing a wishy-washy ambivalence that isn’t there."
I'm sure that can be remedied by all sides.
Janan Ganesh is no better than the rest of the Westminster bubble, and is unable to see the wood from the trees, considering there to be a fundamental conflict of ideologies in British politics, where in fact there is a faintly corrupt consensus on nearly every major issue. His view of Osborne is nothing short of idolatrous.
Most of the shows I watch are on Sky nowadays. Sky Atlantic for myself and Living for her - and I know a lot of people like that. There aren't any PPBs on these major channels.
At the last election the only reason I saw any PPBs is because I'm a political geek who looked them up online. My fiancée never saw any. BBC and ITV just don't have the share they used to - its not healthy to have no penetration for a large share of the population.
I grew up in Australia and there there's paid adverts on TV but more strictly regulated than in the USA. The system there works.
Find out how old you are with this test:
http://kgajos.eecs.harvard.edu/ag/
In our house it's probably closer to 70%.
"Most popular surnames of Great Britain mapped":
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2013/apr/22/popular-surnames-great-britain-mapped
Meanwhile Guido cites Nigel Farage as confessing to being well acquainted with the inside of a lap dancing club today....
Politically correct? not me guvnor. Giss a ciggie and put Top Gear on...