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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

It’s extremely rare for me to oppose a statement made on PB.com by Mike Smithson but his suggestion that the United Kingdom should have paid political adverts fills me with absolute dread. Why?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • I disagreed with Mike as well.
  • FPT, I do not want, swiftboating, pacs and superpacs over here.

    The vilest American campaign I saw was the 2002 Georgia senate race.

    The incumbent, Democrat Max Clelland voted against one of the Homeland Security acts proposed by George W Bush.

    He had ads run against him implying he was soft on terrorist/not a patriot/a coward.

    Now you might think, all's fair in politics, except, Senator Clelland is a triple amputee Vietnam veteran, whilst George W Bush avoided Vietnam by getting a position with the Texas National Air Guard and Dick Cheney, used so many deferments, he missed the Vietnam war.

    The sad thing is, it worked and he lost his seat.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Call it the devil you know, but I think the downside risks are too great and the potential upside - greater participation - elusive.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    I'd vote for Mr. Hayfield!

    Mr. Kelly, cheers for that response, although I'm not sure that pointing to eurozone nations (not sure why you picked France and Germany instead of Greece and Spain) necessarily fills me with confidence in your reasoning.
  • Instead of Paid for Political adverts we should have a better voting system such as AV, will that boost turnout?

    *Innocent face* and on that bombshell goodbye.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Totally agree, Harry. American TV political advertising is appalling. The idea that we would improve our politics by emulating that system is laughable.

    And of course the apportionment of broadcast time via PPBs at least has some kind of fairness to it, rather than being directed by party finances.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    ShippersUnbound Several Tory MPs shout 'hear hear' as press gallery chairman @christopherhope quotes Farage saying EU creates a 'tide of human misery'
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Here here! What was Mike thinking? I'm sorry to say that I agree with Harry entirely and fear this morning's post was a moment of madness from our usually excellent host.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Mr. Kelly, cheers for that response, although I'm not sure that pointing to eurozone nations (not sure why you picked France and Germany instead of Greece and Spain) necessarily fills me with confidence in your reasoning."

    I was going to quote Kenneth Clarke's excellent explanation from the 1990s of why a separate currency is not an essential feature of a sovereign nation, but that would probably bring you out in a rash. I chose France and Germany because they're the largest Eurozone countries (along with Italy) - if you still think of them as sovereign countries then that ought to tell you something.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just got a new phone - the Google Nexus 4 - with 2gig of RAM. Wow its fast
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Agree Harry - our current system is among the 'least worst'.....The disengagement in politics would not be addressed by flooding TV with ads - there are bigger issues at root - as Labour appear to be working on.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    We have been waiting for a labour spending pledge,well we have one.

    NewStatesman Miliband makes his first big spending pledge: a Labour government won't cut the NHS bit.ly/12F2g1b
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Kelly, your concern for my health is touching :)

    We'll wait and see. The eurozone is heading towards deeper political and economic integration.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    glenoglaza1 Farage : 3 big party leaders have never done a real day's work in their lives God they're dull

    glenoglaza1 Farage: I worked in the City for 20 years - worked bloody hard every day ..,untill lunchtime

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Hmmmm.... Let's see now - if paid adverts ever came to pass:


    Standard Tory paid advert:

    "Only the Conservatives can beat Labour at the General Election! (with accompanying bar chart!)"


    Standard Labour paid advert:

    "Only Labour can beat the Tories at the General Election! (with accompanying bar chart!)"


    Standard LibDem paid advert:

    "LibDems - losing here!"

    :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    As I said on the last thread, the "I approve this message" requirement greatly reduced negative advertising in the US. I think Britons have a fairly skewed idea of US TV ads, as it is the most offensive ones that make it across the Atlantic. As one of the few PBers who have lived in the US through election season, I feel I can talk with authority here. The period between the "I approve this message" requirement and Citizens United was actually consisted of very positive ads. Here's a more representative sample:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_-TlOtiuNs
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7AogiXXrHc
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etVTsXUrnp4
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7EIBzZ6sxo

    As you can see, most of them actually inject a lot of fact into the debate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Just got a new phone - the Google Nexus 4 - with 2gig of RAM. Wow its fast

    "LibDems - Ringing here!" :)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Any Yorkshire county cricket fan will love this ;-)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DC2EKgpf55k&feature=youtu.be
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I chose France and Germany because they're the largest Eurozone countries (along with Italy) - if you still think of them as sovereign countries then that ought to tell you something.

    But as Scotland would be a 10%-ish partner with rUK, then choosing a smaller nation, subject to the economic fall-out of the larger Euro-nations, would have been more appropriate. But I can see why you chose not to do that.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    TykeJ,

    Is that how Labour will defend South Shields I wonder? Conservatives - out of touch toffs .....UKIP - out to lunch toffs....
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    FPT, I do not want, swiftboating, pacs and superpacs over here.

    Once again, you're conflating different things. Paid political advertisements are not the same as PACs or super PACs. And swift boating can be prevented by expanding existing fair advertising regulations.

    I have to say the reaction to this is rather reminiscent of someone responding to any movement towards market mechanisms in the NHS with claiming we'd end up with pre-Obamacare American healthcare. It's a nonsense.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "Len McCluskey: Labour must reject austerity or lose 2015 election
    Ed Miliband will lose the next election unless he rejects the “misery and despair” of austerity and promises to reverse the Coalition’s cuts, Labour’s biggest union backer has warned."

    Mr McCluskey was recently re-elected to another five-year term as general secretary of Unite. The union has donated more than £7 million to Labour since the 2010 election, making it the party’s biggest financial backer.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10012950/Len-McCluskey-Labour-must-reject-austerity-or-lose-2015-election.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    "Mr. Kelly, cheers for that response, although I'm not sure that pointing to eurozone nations (not sure why you picked France and Germany instead of Greece and Spain) necessarily fills me with confidence in your reasoning."

    I was going to quote Kenneth Clarke's excellent explanation from the 1990s of why a separate currency is not an essential feature of a sovereign nation, but that would probably bring you out in a rash. I chose France and Germany because they're the largest Eurozone countries (along with Italy) - if you still think of them as sovereign countries then that ought to tell you something.

    I think people only consider them sovereign countries now for historical reasons and because they haven't yet caught up with the new reality. Certainly France and Germany (and even the UK as it currently stands with membership of the EU) do not have either classical or Westphalian sovereignty. UK has more than France or Germany of course but it would still be difficult to use the normal definitions of sovereignty when referring to the UK.

    The only real difference between France and Germany on the one hand and Greece and Cyprus on the other is that of relative economic might and circumstance. That does not mean that Germany or France are any more sovereign than Greece or Cyprus, simply that they have not yet been put in a position where that lack of sovereignty is made explicit.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    ShippersUnbound Farage accuses Peter Kelner of YouGov ('Mr Ashton') of 'doing whatever he can to ensure that the Ukip % is as low as possible'.
  • Socrates said:

    FPT, I do not want, swiftboating, pacs and superpacs over here.

    Once again, you're conflating different things. Paid political advertisements are not the same as PACs or super PACs. And swift boating can be prevented by expanding existing fair advertising regulations.

    I have to say the reaction to this is rather reminiscent of someone responding to any movement towards market mechanisms in the NHS with claiming we'd end up with pre-Obamacare American healthcare. It's a nonsense.

    Yes, I wasn't clear, my fear is that once we import Paid for Adverts, then eventually we'll have PACS and SuperPacs here as well.

    I maybe wrong, but it's my view and fear.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RobDotHutton Farage says @YouGov excludes UKIP from the options it offers voters. Would be interested to hear @anthonyjwells on this suggestion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2013

    Just got a new phone - the Google Nexus 4 - with 2gig of RAM. Wow its fast

    Wheres the best place to pick one of these up, I'm on a 1 month revolving SIM only contract with 3 and an iphone on which no apps any longer work (Won't make the mistake of going AAPL again) ... Don't mind (Would prefer) to just buy the handset outright.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Personally I think Scotland would be a viable state whilst keeping the pound, but I am confused as to why the SNP chose that hypothetical state to be the one they are campaigning to bring about. You want people to believe in real change for Scotland and an independent currency (or even the Euro) would be a clear basis on which to suggest that the new Scotland was not the old Scotland under another name. I think maybe it would lead to more questioning of the economic basis for and independent Scotland, which appears strained; that isn't fatal if you can keep some measure of fervour and a small hit to home turf may have been taken over a larger one to a game the SNP/Yes don't want to play.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I think people only consider them sovereign countries now for historical reasons and because they haven't yet caught up with the new reality."

    Or because the President of France can go to war in Mali, but the Governor of California can't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    A pity for UK politics - but the fight back against Ed's Arnie Graf may have started:

    "As institutions, parties need to be pretty rigid and top-down in order to project themselves nationally, defend their reputations and maintain doctrinal coherence and unity across a whole swathe of issues. There is a level of collective discipline – even bureaucracy – that is needed to manage a political party which is culturally quite different to the freedom in community organisations to decide locally what you want to achieve and how you go about getting it."

    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/sorry-arnie-labours-a-political-party-not-a-community-group/
  • Wow! Three Shredded Wheat this morning, Harry?

    Well said, well argued.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @JamesKelly,what do you make of this ;-)

    alexmassie More evidence of (Scottish) Tory woe and decline. The Orange Order comes out for Labour. scotsman.com/news/orange-or… #endtimes
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Osborne had better hope that Thursday shows no triple dip because for a result which is 50/50 according to the forecasters, the expectations management has been surreal.


    "Meanwhile the newest member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee has been sounding an optimistic note on the UK economy.

    Growth will pick up pace this year, according to Ian McCafferty, who has sought to play down fears the country has slipped into an unprecedented triple-dip recession"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-manufacturing-services-italy-government
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "Mr. Kelly, cheers for that response, although I'm not sure that pointing to eurozone nations (not sure why you picked France and Germany instead of Greece and Spain) necessarily fills me with confidence in your reasoning."

    I was going to quote Kenneth Clarke's excellent explanation from the 1990s of why a separate currency is not an essential feature of a sovereign nation, but that would probably bring you out in a rash. I chose France and Germany because they're the largest Eurozone countries (along with Italy) - if you still think of them as sovereign countries then that ought to tell you something.

    I think people only consider them sovereign countries now for historical reasons and because they haven't yet caught up with the new reality. Certainly France and Germany (and even the UK as it currently stands with membership of the EU) do not have either classical or Westphalian sovereignty. UK has more than France or Germany of course but it would still be difficult to use the normal definitions of sovereignty when referring to the UK.

    The only real difference between France and Germany on the one hand and Greece and Cyprus on the other is that of relative economic might and circumstance. That does not mean that Germany or France are any more sovereign than Greece or Cyprus, simply that they have not yet been put in a position where that lack of sovereignty is made explicit.
    Absolutely. There's also the case that the instability of the Eurozone means that even more power will be concentrated to the EU level over the next decade, which will encroach sovereignty even further. Germany's economic and population might in the union means it won't notice that much, but France is already feeling stifled at the prospect of having it's economic policy set elsewhere. Smaller countries, like Scotland, are feeling it much more clearly. When talking about a sterling bloc, there's also the extra factor that the rUK would have 90%+ of the votes. Thus Scotland can't even try to bolster one of the big boys against the other, in the way smaller Eurozone nations can with France and Germany.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    @tim - Labour supporters better not look at the line about Ed M.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RobDotHutton A reply to Nigel Farage on YouGov... "@anthonyjwells: Sigh ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ouch! Jonathan Portes on what Osborne should be saying the deficit:

    We reduced the deficit by a third in our first two years in government, mostly by massive cuts to public investment, which we now understand were a big mistake and have damaged the economy. We've also now realised that trying to reduce the deficit further while the economy isn't growing is self-defeating, so we're not even going to try to get back on track until it does grow. We won't miss our fiscal targets, since we no longer really have any. If the IMF understood that we're not really going anywhere, perhaps they would stop telling us to change course."

    http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-deficit-is-falling.html
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "When talking about a sterling bloc, there's also the extra factor that the rUK would have 90%+ of the votes."

    As opposed to the de facto 100% of the votes that they have at present. You failed to explain yesterday how 10% would not represent an advance on 0%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Anorak said:


    But as Scotland would be a 10%-ish partner with rUK, then choosing a smaller nation, subject to the economic fall-out of the larger Euro-nations, would have been more appropriate.

    You mean like Finland, the Netherlands or Luxembourg, who even together wouldn't make up 10% of the Eurozone (and who comfortably outstrip the UK in most performance indices)?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited April 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Just got a new phone - the Google Nexus 4 - with 2gig of RAM. Wow its fast

    Wheres the best place to pick one of these up, I'm on a 1 month revolving SIM only contract with 3 and an iphone on which no apps any longer work (Won't make the mistake of going AAPL again) ... Don't mind (Would prefer) to just buy the handset outright.
    It's in stock at the Meadowhall Branch of the Carphonewarehouse (the one down stairs next to the oasis)

    EDIT: Cheaper to buy it elsewhere, see Mr Eek's post up thread.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @tim

    OMG. Must be some spare capacity in RG45 7EG. That author is beyond help.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Tykejohnno - I think the Orange Order made some positive noises about Labour before the 2011 election. The die-hard Rangers support are unlikely to be voting SNP anyway, and given Labour's historic dependence on the Catholic vote this sort of thing is embarrassing for them.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:


    But as Scotland would be a 10%-ish partner with rUK, then choosing a smaller nation, subject to the economic fall-out of the larger Euro-nations, would have been more appropriate.

    You mean like Finland, the Netherlands or Luxembourg, who even together wouldn't make up 10% of the Eurozone (and who comfortably outstrip the UK in most performance indices)?

    All of those would have been much better examples to give. Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    I know, Stephanie Flanders' is the one to ask..

    I'd rather not know the answer, thanks.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Disastrous borrowing figures today. Deficit stalled at £120.6bn for 12-13.

    Total, unmitigated Tory failure.

    A millstone to hang around the neck of the British Conservative Party for all time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    "When talking about a sterling bloc, there's also the extra factor that the rUK would have 90%+ of the votes."

    As opposed to the de facto 100% of the votes that they have at present. You failed to explain yesterday how 10% would not represent an advance on 0%.

    Because you still won't get 1 in 10 decisions?

    Anyway - who says you are going to have 10% (apart from the SNP)?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited April 2013
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="Anorak">
    All of those would have been much better examples to give. Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures.</blockquote>

    Link please?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures."

    You mean Scotland is underperforming as part of the union? Wait a moment - perhaps the union might just be the problem?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    JohnRentoul Farage endorses Michael Gove as Tory leader UKIP cd do business with.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Yvette would be the bunny boiler or petrol driven chainsaw user.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013

    "When talking about a sterling bloc, there's also the extra factor that the rUK would have 90%+ of the votes."

    As opposed to the de facto 100% of the votes that they have at present. You failed to explain yesterday how 10% would not represent an advance on 0%.

    Actually, I did explain it quite clearly: Scotland is a critical part of that 100%, as demonstrated by the fact the current Chief Secretary, the last Chancellor and the Chancellor before that were all Scots. Strangely enough, you're not the judge and jury of whether the person you're disagreeing with explained something or not.
  • 'That is not the sort of thing that I want to see on my television screens come election time. I want to see adverts that PROMOTE a view and not ATTACK another view.'
    The answer is turn the TV off. Nobody is forcing anyone to watch political advertisements. Why is this line of argument not applicable to newspapers or what people say in public places when discussing politics? Not liking something is not a ground for banning it in a free society. The essence of a mature society is that it tolerates divergent views expressed in a variety of ways. There is no principled argument for the ban, only established conservative consensus. As Mike so cogently argued on the last thread, the ban is an anachronism, and should be abolished.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797


    It's in stock at the Meadowhall Branch of the Carphonewarehouse (the one down stairs next to the oasis)

    Its probably cheaper to get it from google direct https://play.google.com/store/devices/details?id=nexus_4_8gb £249 inc delivery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited April 2013

    Anorak said:


    All of those would have been much better examples to give. Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures.

    Link please?

    I'm getting bored by all this currency debate.

    Everyone is forgetting the big unresolved issue, that will dominate the divorce negotiations.

    Who gets to keep Gordon Brown, post independence?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Sorry, but you seem to be under the misapprehension that I'm an "answering random questions from Carlotta upon demand" service.

    Consistency, my love, above all else consistency!
  • eek said:


    It's in stock at the Meadowhall Branch of the Carphonewarehouse (the one down stairs next to the oasis)

    Its probably cheaper to get it from google direct https://play.google.com/store/devices/details?id=nexus_4_8gb £249 inc delivery.
    Thanks, have updated my original post.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    JohnRentoul Farage endorses Michael Gove as Tory leader UKIP cd do business with.

    Not a view endorsed by UKIP voters:

    'Would make a better Leader than Cameron' UKIP VI (net)

    Osborne: -56
    Gove: -21
    Hague: +6
    May: -8

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    michaelsavage Nigel Farage sounding like he thinks he'll win if there's a by-election in Portsmouth South - and says he thinks there'll be one this summer
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Wait a moment - perhaps the union might just be the problem?

    The one you want to enter a currency union with? That one?

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Ah, TSE, glad to see you around. Marcia had quite a bit to say on the subject of your attempts to smear Arthur Donaldson the other day -

    "James, I must one of the dwindling band of people who knew Arthur Donaldson. He was a very good speaker with a dry wit, just like the late Oliver Brown. The horrors of the Great War and the enormous casulties and the lies of 'Land fit for heroes' that never materialised, I think were the reasons why he opposed consription in 1939 and set up an organisation to help those who tried to avoid concription. He opposed women being sent to war work in England.

    He was a very good speaker and with his easy speaking manner the Govt of the day may have thought he could undermine the conscription of men and women so they had him interned. I am sure his widow Violet said there was a lot of fabricated reports of his activities and she strongly denied he was sympathetic to the German cause. He was released without any charges being made.

    I am puzzled as to the PB Tory who said he was throw out of the SNP in 1940. He certainly was not. Are they getting mixed up with Douglas Young who was another who opposed the war but for different reasons? There was a power struggle in 1942 with different groups in the SNP as to how the party should proceed, a gradualist approach or the fundamentalist approach. The latter grouping won and some left the party to form the National Convention.

    He became leader of the Party in 1960 until he stepped down in 1969. He became rather deaf in his old age but it didn't stop him campaiging for Gordon Wilson in the 1979 and 1983 General Elections."


    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2013/04/if-any-prominent-pollsters-from-ipsos.html?showComment=1366306054615#c8264948228681957442
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Consistency, my love, above all else consistency!

    You mean like the SNP?

    Innocent face......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Socrates said:

    "When talking about a sterling bloc, there's also the extra factor that the rUK would have 90%+ of the votes."

    As opposed to the de facto 100% of the votes that they have at present. You failed to explain yesterday how 10% would not represent an advance on 0%.

    Actually, I did explain it quite clearly: Scotland is a critical part of that 100%, as demonstrated by the fact the current Chief Secretary, the last Chancellor and the Chancellor before that were all Scots. Strangely enough, you're not the judge and jury of whether the person you're disagreeing with explained something or not.
    sorry if this has been explained but what is the status of foreigners being part of the rUK's legislative process (ie MPs) if we get a "Yes/Out" vote?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    JohnRentoul Farage endorses Michael Gove as Tory leader UKIP cd do business with.

    Not a view endorsed by UKIP voters:

    'Would make a better Leader than Cameron' UKIP VI (net)

    Osborne: -56
    Gove: -21
    Hague: +6
    May: -8

    Well hague did go on the ukip agenda at the GE ;-)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:


    All of those would have been much better examples to give. Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures.

    Link please?

    Here you go: output and educational standards by region
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Anorak said:


    But as Scotland would be a 10%-ish partner with rUK, then choosing a smaller nation, subject to the economic fall-out of the larger Euro-nations, would have been more appropriate.

    You mean like Finland, the Netherlands or Luxembourg, who even together wouldn't make up 10% of the Eurozone (and who comfortably outstrip the UK in most performance indices)?

    Luxembourg is a statistical anomaly because the GDP per capita numbers include the economic output of people not in the denominator because of such large commuting. Yes, I agree the Dutch and the Finns have done well, but that's largely due to good fortune in having their last economic cycle be similar to that of Germany. As we can see from the other small countries like Ireland and Portugal, it's an enormous gamble.

    I've come to the conclusion the best option for an independent Scotland would be its own currency, but have pretty active management of it to prevent oil volatility screwing with trade flows too much.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Political adverts would presumably have to be legal, honest, decent and truthful, like any other adverts.

    Come to think of it, that would be a marked improvement on most current party political broadcasts.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You mean like the SNP?"

    Absolutely. Over the last few decades, the SNP's policy positions have been far more consistent than the UK Labour or Conservatives parties.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited April 2013
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="TheScreamingEagles">

    Who gets to keep Gordon Brown, post independence?</blockquote>

    He's a Brit as he's told us so often, so I assume that includes Rump status. I'll accept that you can change your 'gets to' to a 'has to' though. Look on the bright side, Baron Brown of Kirkcaldy may find it easier to get to the HoL if he relocates further south.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Duncan Weldon notes that today's ONS numbers make no mention of the "structural" deficit which gullible PBTories tend to post on here without understanding what it is.

    That's cos current borrowing is easily measured. "Structural" deficits on the other hand are a mirage. A convenient political conceit.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "Note that they only outstrip the UK if you include Scotland in the figures."

    You mean Scotland is underperforming as part of the union? Wait a moment - perhaps the union might just be the problem?

    How can that be the case? Scotland has been in a successful monetary union for 300 years.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    "I think people only consider them sovereign countries now for historical reasons and because they haven't yet caught up with the new reality."

    Or because the President of France can go to war in Mali, but the Governor of California can't.

    That answer was way to trite for you James. The ability to wage war has never been the one overriding definition of sovereignty.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited April 2013
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="Richard_Tyndall">
    That answer was way to trite for you James. The ability to wage war has never been the one overriding definition of sovereignty.
    </blockquote>

    Given recent history I feel the ability to choose not to wage war is a pretty strong definition of sovereignty.


  • Who gets to keep Gordon Brown, post independence?

    He's a Brit as he's told us so often, so I assume that includes Rump status. I'll accept that you can change your 'gets to' to a 'has to' though. Look on the bright side, Baron Brown of Kirkcaldy may find it easier to get to the HoL if he relocates further south.
    Well he's not Scottish, I mean how could any Scot say Paul Gascoigne scoring against Scotland in Euro 96 was one of his favourite football moments?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "How can that be the case? Scotland has been in a successful monetary union for 300 years."

    You're forgetting - we have it on the UK government's authority that Scotland was "extinguished" in 1707. There can hardly be a "monetary union", successful or otherwise, between countries that do not yet exist.

    On a point of pedantry, I believe that the Scottish pound was retained for a century after the Act of Union. Actually, it's not a point of pedantry - it further illustrates the point that currency is not necessarily tied to sovereign nationhood.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The ability to wage war has never been the one overriding definition of sovereignty."

    I didn't say it was, but control over foreign policy is self-evidently a huge part of sovereignty.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Not under any normal definition and certainly not when one considers the definition which has been used for modern states since the Treaty of Westphalia which is concerned with preventing the involvement of external agencies in domestic issues.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    "How can that be the case? Scotland has been in a successful monetary union for 300 years."

    You're forgetting - we have it on the UK government's authority that Scotland was "extinguished" in 1707. There can hardly be a "monetary union", successful or otherwise, between countries that do not yet exist.

    On a point of pedantry, I believe that the Scottish pound was retained for a century after the Act of Union. Actually, it's not a point of pedantry - it further illustrates the point that currency is not necessarily tied to sovereign nationhood.

    A serious question: if the rUK Treasury refused to take part in a fiscal union with an independent Scotland, would you (and/or the SNP) prefer:

    a) To have a Scottish Pound pegged to sterling
    b) To have sterling, but no say in rUK policy
    c) To have a new, independent currency
    d) To join the Euro
    e) Something else
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "A plague on both your houses: how Ukip is worrying Labour as well as the Conservatives."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100213458/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-how-ukip-is-worrying-labour-as-well-as-the-conservatives/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Talking to various Labour people earlier this week, I was struck by the return of the party’s perennial worry: what to do about the concerns of skilled working-class voters on issues like immigration, crime and welfare.

    From the backbenches to the Shadow Cabinet, there are people who worry that Labour under Ed Miliband doesn’t have the same grip on those voters that it did under Tony Blair. Even people who support Ed M, think he’s doing a good job and admire his work on cost-of-living issues privately confess to concerns here.

    Nothing to see here...move along....UKIP only a threat to the Tories.....
  • BenM said:

    "Structural" deficits on the other hand are a mirage. A convenient political conceit.

    How many times does it have to be explained to you that merely because something is not easily measured does not mean that it does not exist, or is of no analytical value? Are you honestly suggesting that if the government raised no money in taxation, but spent 15% of GDP pa indefinitely, that there wouldn't be a structural deficit? The argument is remarkably similar to one that the Police used to make about racism. The precise quantification of 'institutional racism' at the Metropolitan Police in the 1990s was no doubt difficult. That didn't mean that MacPherson of Cluny J was for that reason alone wrong to state that the Met was institutionally racist.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749


    Well he's not Scottish, I mean how could any Scot say Paul Gascoigne scoring against Scotland in Euro 96 was one of his favourite football moments?

    I actually think Gordon is/was more sincere than a lot of pols (ie he actually believes most of his pish), his deceptions were mainly of himself. On that occasion though I think his size 40 y-fronts were definitely smouldering for low political reasons.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    MichaelSavage
    Nigel Farage sounding like he thinks he'll win if there's a by-election in Portsmouth South - and says he thinks there'll be one this summer

    2.1% in the last election (and just 3 votes more than the BNP). That's some swing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    "The ability to wage war has never been the one overriding definition of sovereignty."

    I didn't say it was, but control over foreign policy is self-evidently a huge part of sovereignty.

    Except that under the Treaty of Lisbon a number of areas of foreign policy have already been ceded to the EU to be decided by QMV.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Instinctively I agree with Harry more than OGH on this question but I'm not sure I'd want to be in an argument defending my position with someone committed to the opposite point of view.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Anorak said:
    Lol.
    Well, I've seen less honest expressions of the essence of Unionism.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @JamesKelly

    I'm not sure why you are worrying about defence, asset/liability breakdown, currency, principles of independence, etc.

    To quote another poster, @redcliffe62 so apologies if he/she has it wrong, for £500 a majority of Scots voters would vote "Out".

    So save your breath. For £2.5bn (of our precious pounds sterling) you've got your result. A small price for Alex to pay, no?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On topic, I entirely agree with Harry Hayfield.

    I'm sure that Mike's proposition this morning had nothing to do with the Lib Dems' interest in seeing two of the larger parties knocking lumps out of each other while they miss the flak.

    The one aspect of US elections that the UK could most usefully adopt would be primaries, particularly now that there are fixed-term parliaments. Again, there'd need to be spending limits and perhaps a degree of state support (e.g. a mini-booklet of the various candidates, in a centrally-defined format, delivered free through the post). The reality is that selection procedures which involve a mixture of not upsetting central staffs and appealing to hardcore activists, tend towards bland candidates who've come through the system. It is not one for outsiders, yet it is more outsiders that the public wants. Primaries *might* be a way of delivering that.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    While all PBers of sound mind have today been celebrating the masterful husbandry of the UK economy by our near-perfect Chancellor, the boys at Markit have released some rather depressing PMIs for continental Europe and Germany in particular.

    The Markit Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the month of April was unchanged on March's reading of 46.5. The sub-50 reading indicated a drop in activity in the region for the 19th time in the past 20 months with the single exception being the marginal increase registered in January of 2012.

    The manufacturing sector saw its steepest rate of decline for four months, although the downturn in services eased slightly compared to March.

    Markit noted that new business fell for the 31st successive month, with the rate of deterioration accelerating for the third month in a row to signal the steepest decline since December.

    Germany continued to damper spirits in the euro area as both activity and new business fell at the steepest rates for six months. In fact, the drop in German activity was the first since last November.


    Chris Williamson, Markit's Chief Economist, summarised the message:

    The renewed decline in Germany will “raise fears that the region's largest growth engine has moved into reverse, thereby acting as a drag on the region at the same time as particularly steep downturns persist in France, Italy and Spain.”

    The news from the Eurozone is unsettling central bankers, economists and market traders alike. The ECB is now expected to inject more stimulus into the Eurozone economy, particularly as inflation figures are moving downward. Even the hawkish bond traders are getting worried with PIMCO's Bill Gross, who manages a $289 bn mainly bond fund, calling for more direct investment in the region.

    Boy George of course is sitting relatively pretty here in the UK with the economy, albeit sluggishly, moving in the right direction. It would be ironic if he and the UK were to be able to continue with his planned austerity plans while the Eurozone pumps itself up a massive stimulus. George would benefit from the borrowing without having the associated costs or risks.

    As tim keeps reminding us, Sweden and Canada found it much easier to succeed with an austerity programme when its main trading neighbours had their feet firmly down on the borrowing pedal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited April 2013
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="TOPPING">
    To quote another poster, @redcliffe62 so apologies if he/she has it wrong, for £500 a majority of Scots voters would vote "Out".
    </blockquote>

    There are also polls suggesting a strong majority would vote Yes if the Conservatives were certain to win the next UK election, others citing a fairer society as no.1 reason for voting for independence. As ever there are lots of different motivations, the Scots aren't unique in that regard.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Janan Ganesh is fast becoming the premier political commentator of the times. His latest article is another work of art:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d4547c-ab37-11e2-8c63-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2REIfywCm

    "And therein lies the real problem with the charge of nebulousness: Mr Miliband is not guilty of it. If anything, his is the opposite fault. He is an astonishingly clear politician, one of the least tentative among postwar opposition leaders. The specific policies are not yet there but then they rarely are two years ahead of a general election. Still, it is already clear that he would tax the wealthy more, govern as an environmentalist and revise at least some of the government’s public service reforms.

    He clearly does not regard the previous Labour government as ruinously profligate. He is clearly pro-European. He is clearly socially liberal. He is clearly less comfortable with free markets than his two predecessors or even Ed Balls, his own shadow chancellor. He is very clearly of a type: a member of the modern, metropolitan centre-left. He is the only prominent politician in the UK who invokes the word “ideology” as a good thing. His critics should stop cursing a wishy-washy ambivalence that isn’t there."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    Janan Ganesh is fast becoming the premier political commentator of the times. His latest article is another work of art:

    "Still, it is already clear that he would tax the wealthy more, govern as an environmentalist and revise at least some of the government’s public service reforms.

    He clearly does not regard the previous Labour government as ruinously profligate. He is clearly pro-European. He is clearly socially liberal. He is clearly less comfortable with free markets than his two predecessor"

    His complaint is that rEd Ed is not being portrayed as far to the left as he actually is ?

    I'm sure that can be remedied by all sides.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "How can that be the case? Scotland has been in a successful monetary union for 300 years."

    You're forgetting - we have it on the UK government's authority that Scotland was "extinguished" in 1707. There can hardly be a "monetary union", successful or otherwise, between countries that do not yet exist.

    On a point of pedantry, I believe that the Scottish pound was retained for a century after the Act of Union. Actually, it's not a point of pedantry - it further illustrates the point that currency is not necessarily tied to sovereign nationhood.

    Then why did the SNP say they had a successful monetary union for the last three hundreds years in their release today?
  • @antifrank
    Janan Ganesh is no better than the rest of the Westminster bubble, and is unable to see the wood from the trees, considering there to be a fundamental conflict of ideologies in British politics, where in fact there is a faintly corrupt consensus on nearly every major issue. His view of Osborne is nothing short of idolatrous.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    One issue not being addressed fully by those opposing paid adverts is how few people the PPBs can reach nowadays.

    Most of the shows I watch are on Sky nowadays. Sky Atlantic for myself and Living for her - and I know a lot of people like that. There aren't any PPBs on these major channels.

    At the last election the only reason I saw any PPBs is because I'm a political geek who looked them up online. My fiancée never saw any. BBC and ITV just don't have the share they used to - its not healthy to have no penetration for a large share of the population.

    I grew up in Australia and there there's paid adverts on TV but more strictly regulated than in the USA. The system there works.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Find out how old you are with this test:

    http://kgajos.eecs.harvard.edu/ag/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Very slick PPB from UKIP.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    One issue not being addressed fully by those opposing paid adverts is how few people the PPBs can reach nowadays.

    Most of the shows I watch are on Sky nowadays. Sky Atlantic for myself and Living for her - and I know a lot of people like that. There aren't any PPBs on these major channels.

    At the last election the only reason I saw any PPBs is because I'm a political geek who looked them up online. My fiancée never saw any. BBC and ITV just don't have the share they used to - its not healthy to have no penetration for a large share of the population.

    I grew up in Australia and there there's paid adverts on TV but more strictly regulated than in the USA. The system there works.

    Just 'cos it's true for you doesn't make it true elsewhere. BBC1 BBC2 ITV1 C4 C5 still account for over half of the TV watched in this country. http://www.barb.co.uk/viewing/weekly-total-viewing-summary?_s=4

    In our house it's probably closer to 70%.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    "How can that be the case? Scotland has been in a successful monetary union for 300 years."

    You're forgetting - we have it on the UK government's authority that Scotland was "extinguished" in 1707. There can hardly be a "monetary union", successful or otherwise, between countries that do not yet exist.

    On a point of pedantry, I believe that the Scottish pound was retained for a century after the Act of Union. Actually, it's not a point of pedantry - it further illustrates the point that currency is not necessarily tied to sovereign nationhood.

    Then why did the SNP say they had a successful monetary union for the last three hundreds years in their release today?
    According to Wikipedia:
    In 1707, the pound Scots was replaced by the pound sterling at a rate of 12 to 1, although the pound Scots continued to be used in Scotland as a unit of account for most of the 18th century.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    in fact there is a faintly corrupt consensus on nearly every major issue.


    Meanwhile Guido cites Nigel Farage as confessing to being well acquainted with the inside of a lap dancing club today....

    Politically correct? not me guvnor. Giss a ciggie and put Top Gear on...
This discussion has been closed.