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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?
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Whoever has voted 11-12, can you make sure you are a fully signed and paid up Betfair customer ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25541739
But I think it will be the middle of the year before the tories get a lead and even then it will probably be short lived albeit I expect the polling to remain closer thereafter than it has been for much of 2013. Hopefully by the end of 2014 we will start to see more consistent tory leads.
I'll be surprised if polls have moved much when the entertainment resumes in January. People have as David observes been paying no attention at all. I was asked by one zealot to canvass on Dec 21/22, and refused not through laziness but because voters would think we were nuts.
If you were to ask me which pollster may be the first to show a Tory lead, I'd go for Ipsos-Mori because of their turnout filter.
I think the first major polling event could be Ed trailing Nick in the Mori leader ratings.
That might set the cat amongst the pigeons.
Good news for home owners in Primrose Hill.
Bad news for people who are not invested in high-end London property.
Con minus 7
Lab plus 1
LD minus 3
UKIP plus 8
A Kinnock-led Opposition might have drawn unfavourable comparisons between now and the efficiency of the 1987 hurricane clean-up by the then CEGB but now we are all en thrall to the markets so the private power companies must surely be doing an excellent job in adverse circumstances. The Christmas lights still twinkle in Notting Hill as they do in Primrose Hill and Chipping Norton.
A period of calm and noblesse oblige was required and not digitalus du posterior en Ecosse
Which famous Liberal cricketer lost to the sound of an opera aria?
Plan A will triumph in spite of early disappointments.
The Coalition will not last to the end of 2010, umm 2011 – scrub that, 2012 – and er, 2013..!
OK, definitely 2014….maybe!
Spurs mindset, hope for the best, expect the worst..... fear everyone (Daily Mail)
And Gideon saw the light, and it was good; and Gideon divided the blues from the darkness
NEVER go into a hardware shop in Birmingham and ask for some 4-ply.
(via @thomas__)
I voted 3-4.
I hope Avery predicted , at least, 9 times !
On another note: congratulations to 7fingers on the last thread. And yes, the bet's valid; just put the winnings into the baby's bank account. ;-)
66% and over 5/6
Under 66% 5/6
Other turnout prices - FAV only:
BetVictor 65% and over 4/9
Paddy Power More than 64% 8/15
Betfair 75.01% and over 2/1
Dear Zlatan. Your services are needed at Arsenal/Chelsea/Spurs (delete as appropriate). We'll pay you the same as you currently get, but you'll get 30% more of it.
* due to George Cunningham's 40% Amendment to the Scotland Act 1978
I think you are right about the tax breaks, but it will not (only) be for electoral reasons.
The primary reason will be economic and the need to sustain and manage the economical revival. The end of this calendar year has seen the beginnings of a turnaround in lending to businesses and most commentators are predicting an upturn in business investment through 2014. There will though be a lag though between this upturn and its impact on growth.
At the same time there is a limit to the amount of short term growth which can be generated through consumer expenditure, especially when real incomes are only likely to recover gradually. We don't know yet what the Christmas retail figures will be but even if they hold up, there will be limited capacity for sustaining spend through the sparse winter months.
So to bridge the gap between an inevitable easing off of growth in consumer expenditure and the impact of increased business investment, the economy would benefit from a short and measured fiscal stimulus. Fitting such stimulus to the needs of the economic cycle, the perfect timing would be the second quarter of 2014.
George is both a lucky and a skillful chancellor. His timing is but a cigarette paper in width off perfect. Not only will he increase net disposable incomes by easing the tax burden in the March 2014 budget, he will have the right economic excuses for doing so.
No need for accounting tricks here, Surby.
I've never been convinced by the argument that Scottish independence would boost the Tories in England. I think that losing the last of the colonies, and thus finally closing the British Empire chapter for good could be a nail in the coffin of Toryism. The movement grew and flourished because of Empire, but is it really fit for purpose in the post-Empire phase of England's history?
YouGov finds 67% of voters want Scot MPs banned from voting in Commons post yes vote 61% of Scots agree
14% Oppose, 17% in Scotland
Just remember Dave, Vox populi, vox Dei
True Tories have fixed the roof when the sun has shone.
And I have ascended the Scala Sancta in Rome on my knees, earning a plenary indulgence of nine years off purgatory for each step. The 28 steps mean I now have a credit of 271 years.
I suspect that a Yes vote would cripple Cameron's reputation and his premiership. Perhaps unfairly he would go down in history as the PM that broke the Union (I can name at least 3 PMs that bear a far bigger burden of reponsibility).
A No vote on the other hand would be a tremendous triumph for Cameron. His signing the Edinburgh Agreement was a gamble, and it would be seen to have paid off handomely. The auld enemy the Scots would have been taught their lesson and be open to public ridicule throughout the planet: all talk and no action. Cameron and his party could do what they liked to the defeated Scots, as they had played their trump card and lost the hand. UK GE 2015 would start to look like game on for Con Maj.
Who is PM in that scenario ?
Dave proposes legislation removing the rights of Scots MPs to vote in Westminter and send MPs to Westminster in 2015.
Labour opposes this, this boosts the Tories in England and possibly Wales, may not be a positive for Labour in England.
Of course, the great unknown is if Scots vote to leave, but never do, because of legal delays and Alex Salmond's inability to deliver the promises he made during the campaign.
It is in General Elections where he needs to up his game.
What it will do is permanently deprive Labour of 35-50 MPs from Westminster which will suit the London Tory Party perfectly, though they will never admit it.
But I think Tory leads will come after the Euros are done with and around the time the union is saved.
If No wins, then surely the question is whether Darling returns triumphant to London with a free choice of front bench jobs.
The problem from springtime onwards is that this ceases to be a phoney air war and becomes a hot ground war. I just don't rate the Scottish Tories as a ground war outfit, and he can't rely on the SLDs (there aren't many left) or the SLabbers/trade unionists (their ground troops have seen through BT for the Tory front that it is).
Personally I think it is a shame that the EU undermines national taxation policies but it is amusing to see fanatically Europhile lefties coming to the realisation that what we have said all along is correct and that high taxation welfarism is dead in an open market.
.
In an extraordinary interview, the MP – who was made a dame last year and is known for her ‘mumsy image’ – used the word ‘f***’ four times in addition to ‘s***’, ‘a******e’ and ‘penis’.
Her comments came in an interview with the Labour-supporting Guardian intended to promote her campaign to become Labour’s candidate in the 2016 London poll.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2530482/Tessa-Jowells-four-letter-rant-threatens-bid-London-Mayor-Labour-Dame-turns-air-blue-accused-faking-tears-marriage-split.html
Strengthening ER's argument is
(a) the sponging Jocks meme still plastered all over the Daily Mail and the like (it is always instructive to compare their English and Scottish editions);
and (b) the decline in Britishness even in England as seen in recent censuses and opinion polls. The decline and fall of Britain will be that much less of a shock/surprise to the Zeitgeist of all, except perhaps the elderly and the more Britnat, as it would have been in the 1970s.
It might also be remembered that Mr Cameron and the Tories are showing chateau generalship, for they have taken great care not to fight for the union personally, apart from the odd visit to the (literal, not metaphorical porridge factory aside (which itself explained some of the reasons why he has avoided visiting the front line). In those circumstances it's a tossup which penal battalion in the trenches gets the blame - Labour or even the LDs, or the media.
I also suspect that in the case of a Yes the Tories will be delighted to blame the Scots for everything from dinosaur extinction to scrapping the Trident replacement, so there's that as a bonus too.
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past....."Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
My post at 3:18
Also backed Stoke to concede 3 or more goals today. 9/4 with William Hill.
Well, if the polls are to be believed (and I'd urge extreme caution on that point), then David Cameron has had an excellent IndyRef thus far. His choice of Alastair Darling to run his No campaign was a masterstroke, and even his placewoman Ruth Davidson has been slightly improving (albeit from a dire base).
The problem from springtime onwards is that this ceases to be a phoney air war and becomes a hot ground war. I just don't rate the Scottish Tories as a ground war outfit, and he can't rely on the SLDs (there aren't many left) or the SLabbers/trade unionists (their ground troops have seen through BT for the Tory front that it is).
Cameron's two tactical triumphs on the Scottish Referendum have been to negotiate an initial binary decision and to treat the debate for what it truly is: an internal family dispute and not a war between England and Scotland.
I really don't accept your arguments about ground wars. It is patronising and wrongheaded to assume that Scots will vote in a referendum on independence in the same was they do in a local election. The vote will be considered by all as fundamental, long term and important and this attitude will mean that party activism will have a greatly diminished sway over voting.
On the positive side, I do not sense that Cameron intends any triumphalism from Westminster in the event of a NO vote. Magnanimity in victory will not only be personally characteristic and self-defining, it will also be politically advantageous.
The key to Scotland's future happiness lies not in the result of the September 2014 referendum but in the post referendum relationship between the SNP and Westminster. And a strong Cameron-Salmond relationship will be the foundation upon which this future will be built.
It is a truth which I believe both Eck and Dave have already recognised and which both have started to work on.
The LDs won't get the blame because they'll be an irrelevance. Labour won't get the blame because they'll be seen to have done their best with the shitty hand Cameron gave them.
The media would deserve a lot of the blame, but the media is never held to account.
Blaming the Scots will be a fun game for a year or two, but as England faces up to the new realities of its own independence it may begin to actually enjoy governing itself again.
Somehow I doubt that OGH uses imperial-measurements. Given the small metrics that is Napoleonic amongst the dhimmies, eight per-cent must be huge!
I, personally, think that permanent cross-over will occur by August 2014 (following England winning the "World Cup"). Losing Scotland the following month will be a bonus...!
And surely any sane blogger would leave scientific controversies to, well, science?
I don't expect English Tories to understand the coming ground war. The more you fail to comprehend the happier I become.
Triumphalism is what Westminster and Whitehall do best. They are Olympic masters of that game. Winning a No vote will be no exception. Magnanimity is not even in their dictionary.
You know, I have a strange gut feeling about this World Cup. For pretty much the first time in history, England are going into it without being over-hyped. I just wonder if that may help them to actually perform once the competition begins. I'll certainly be shouting them on. If England actually win the final I think that Salmond and Jenkins may explode with the sheer joy of their unexpected gift.
United to beat Spurs on New Years Day then....
I don't expect English Tories to understand the coming ground war. The more you fail to comprehend the happier I become.
Triumphalism is what Westminster and Whitehall do best. They are Olympic masters of that game. Winning a No vote will be no exception. Magnanimity is not even in their dictionary.
And what would happen if Mr Miliband wins the UK GE in 2015, after a Yes? [edited] Or a No? Would his reaction be any different?
And the difference between England and GB/UK is much more widely understood now than it was back in the 70s, and much, much more so than the 40s (remember Churchill's "There is a forgotten, nay almost forbidden word that means more to me than any other word. That word is England.")
The depriving Labour of 35-50 MPs from Westminster thing is just a temporary setback to Miliband. The damage to Cameron will more than offset that.
- David Cameron and Lord Forsyth reject whispering campaign against performance of Better Together and its leader, Alistair Darling
... Lynton Crosby, the Prime Minister’s election guru, has issued an emphatic denial he is behind the whispering campaign amid rumours that polls giving the unionists a commanding lead are wrong and Alex Salmond’s separatists are likely to triumph.
Downing Street sources rejected the claims about Mr Crosby as “second and third-hand tittle-tattle” and claimed the real culprit was someone without any close involvement in the fight against independence.
... The Sunday Times reported Lord Forsyth’s concerns that the UK Government is complacent about the result, but he told the Telegraph that Mr Darling, the former Chancellor, was doing a “great job” and criticism of Better Together is “unfounded”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10541254/David-Cameron-defends-comatose-Alistair-Darlings-leadership-of-campaign-against-Scottish-independence.html
The polling evidence would tend to back my take rather than yours or Easterross's.
Will the Lib Dems also experience this huge negative?