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Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race – politicalbetting

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 20 in General
imageAnother day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race – politicalbetting.com

Above is the latest Betdata.io chart on the Betfair 2020 White House race which most bookies settled nearly a fortnight ago. Not so with Betfair who continue to accept bets and as I write the total value of bets matched has reached a staggering £793m up £166m over the past week.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • E pluribus unum.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,848
    edited November 20
    Second rate, like the former leading Betting Exchange.
  • I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
  • First like Trump. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to my attorney, Lionel Hutz.
  • The last two times I've moved jobs most of my team joined me, do we think when the disgraced national security risk Priti Patel moves jobs lots of her staff will join her?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    I do find it surprising that Betfair can get away with so blatantly disregarding their own rules. For many bets, the likely date of settlement is just as important as the odds, and this behaviour makes a nonsense of any attempt to estimate that.

    Sadly it's nothing new. I voted with my feet last year over their disregard of their own rules for the Brexit markets.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,841
    The amount wagered is, I suggest, rather misleading.

    If you trade back and forth between 1.04 and 1.05, you could end up matching £100 for every £1 difference it actually makes to your position. If any trades are losing positions, they will cancel themselves out. If two or more people are engaged in this, the net effect could quite literally be zero.
  • isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397

    Second rate, like the former leading Betting Exchange.

    My bet on Biden was with Smarkets which settled on the Sunday after the election
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,848
    edited November 20
    'If you can't be right, at least be consistent.'

    It would have made some sort of sense if Betfair had not paid out on ANY election bets. Or they could have paid out on them all. The current half-way house makes no kind of sense.

    They could now face some quite genyuine challenges from punters who placed losing bets after the results became known. Unfortunately aggrieved punters have only the useless Gambling Commission to assist them. The Courts might work better, but expensive and it would require a joint action.

    My own recourse will be to transfer my balances to Betdaq and use them in future. It won't bother Betfair, I'm sure, but if enough of us did it......
  • Anyhoo, I wasn't expecting to get paid until January the 20th, so keep calm and carry on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    First like Trump. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to my attorney, Lionel Hutz.

    Just heard that Li has pulled out.

    Advised just to say "my attorney, c/o P. O. Box 666".
  • Five weeks to Christmas. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.05
    Democrats 1.05
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.04
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.08
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.06
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.03

    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.03
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.04
    WI Dem 1.05
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
    That’s why their sportsbook can pay out earlier, because it’s Betfair’s money. But they can’t do early pay outs like Paddy Power can on the exchange, because it’s not their money they’d be paying out!
  • I do miss Lionel Hutz, still can't believe it is twenty-two years since Phil Hartman was murdered.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
    That’s why their sportsbook can pay out earlier, because it’s Betfair’s money. But they can’t do early pay outs like Paddy Power can on the exchange, because it’s not their money they’d be paying out!
    I know, you're not telling me anything I don't already know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626

    'If you can't be right, at least be consistent.'

    It would have made some sort of sense if Betfair had not paid out on ANY election bets. Or they could have paid out on them all. The current half-way house makes no kind of sense.

    They could now face some quite genyuine challenges from punters who placed losing bets after the results became known. Unfortunately aggrieved punters have only the useless Gambling Commission to assist them. The Courts might work better, but expensive and it would require a joint action.

    My own recourse will be to transfer my balances to Betdaq and use them in future. It won't bother Betfair, I'm sure, but if enough of us did it......

    Betdaq have been very good. They didn't suspend the market when Trump got ill and have now paid. I asked them to put up more markets for next time. Also they're 2% commission rather than the 20% Betfair charges.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    Second rate, like the former leading Betting Exchange.

    My bet on Biden was with Smarkets which settled on the Sunday after the election
    Smarkets an exchange you reckon? They seem like a bookie to me. They scrape Betfair’s prices with their own money on the football, and discourage winners from trading with them, which is strange, bordering on absurd, for an exchange whose only source of income is comm
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
    That’s why their sportsbook can pay out earlier, because it’s Betfair’s money. But they can’t do early pay outs like Paddy Power can on the exchange, because it’s not their money they’d be paying out!
    I know, you're not telling me anything I don't already know.
    So why did you hope they might pay out early like paddy power?! You must have known it was impossible
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    edited November 20

    First like Trump. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to my attorney, Lionel Hutz.

    The Path to Victory: you just need to overturn @isam, @Peter_the_Punter and @TheScreamingEagles (twice), all of which have clearly made fake posts.
  • I still can't get over the fact that Bashar al-Assad is a Right Said Fred fan. Well he's probably not anymore after that performance they did on Last Week with John Oliver.

  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    'If you can't be right, at least be consistent.'

    It would have made some sort of sense if Betfair had not paid out on ANY election bets. Or they could have paid out on them all. The current half-way house makes no kind of sense.

    They could now face some quite genyuine challenges from punters who placed losing bets after the results became known. Unfortunately aggrieved punters have only the useless Gambling Commission to assist them. The Courts might work better, but expensive and it would require a joint action.

    My own recourse will be to transfer my balances to Betdaq and use them in future. It won't bother Betfair, I'm sure, but if enough of us did it......

    Being annoyed with VHS isn’t made better by switching to Betamax. If only the other exchanges had 10% of Betfair’s liquidity, but they don’t. I can’t understand how there is such a monopoly, why doesn’t undercutting their comm work?
  • .

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    I am vaguely surprised that famously publicity shy Paddy Power has not opened a market on who will be the actual next president, even if only temporarily.

    Mike Pence (if Trump resigns)
    Nancy Pelosi (if Trump locks himself in)
    Kamala Harris (if Biden is taken ill in the next two months)
    Joe Biden (if we wake up in the shower and find the coup plot was all a dream)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,838
    edited November 20

    First like Trump. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to my attorney, Lionel Hutz.

    The Path to Victory: you just need to overturn @isam, @Peter_the_Punter and @TheScreamingEagles (twice), all of which have clearly made fake posts.
    Stop spreading FAKE news, you are part of the haters, I call on all loyal PB-ers to stand by. In the coming days I will make some bigly important revelations that will make it clear I was first. All legal posts should count, but not illegal posts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, they were probably hypnotised by the garish and unnatural hues of your raiment.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
    That’s why their sportsbook can pay out earlier, because it’s Betfair’s money. But they can’t do early pay outs like Paddy Power can on the exchange, because it’s not their money they’d be paying out!
    I know, you're not telling me anything I don't already know.
    So why did you hope they might pay out early like paddy power?! You must have known it was impossible
    I was talking about the fact that even Paddy Power stopped doing early payouts on Biden winning, especially in light of the polls, which usually saw them payout early on elections.

    Back in 2016 they paid out in October 2016 on Clinton winning, even when she led by less in the polls than Biden was leading at the equivalent point.

    Some of those early winnings were placed on Trump winning which was nice from a betting point of view.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166
    Any uncertainty in the rules is profitable for Betfair, as it leads to punters interpreting them differently and hence more bets being matched because both sides think they're getting a good deal.

    Ditto for naming the market "Next President", which had people putting money on Pence or Harris long after they had any chance of winning the election.

    It's not like this is their first election, and 2000 was a great example of problems that can occur, so I think it's all quite deliberate, and the only remedy is to not put money on markets with woolly rules.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    Next Thursday is Thanksgiving. Tuesday is the day the turkey get pardoned. Trump says he's going to show up for that.
    Wonder if he'll have anything to say, directly or indirectly, about the elections.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,213

    Stop spreading FAKE news, you are part of the haters, I call on all loyal PB-ers to stand by. In the coming days I will make some bigly important revelations that will make it clear I was first. All legal posts should count, but not illegal posts.


  • The Vanilla ISIS story keeps getting more shocking. And these people are out on bail?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,331

    The Vanilla ISIS story keeps getting more shocking. And these people are out on bail?

    Well obviously there wouldn't have been a week long series of televised executions but yes pretty shocking.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    TOPPING said:

    The Vanilla ISIS story keeps getting more shocking. And these people are out on bail?

    Well obviously there wouldn't have been a week long series of televised executions but yes pretty shocking.
    First news broadcasts from Trump TV?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,205
    The phrase 'Projected Electoral College votes won' is so plainly ambiguous that they are right not to pay out yet, and wrong to have an ambiguous definition. Is there much else to say?
  • A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396

    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, they were probably hypnotised by the garish and unnatural hues of your raiment.

    A sort of Pied Piper effect. Did he get the rats or the children, though?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    Pro_Rata said:

    Next Thursday is Thanksgiving. Tuesday is the day the turkey get pardoned. Trump says he's going to show up for that.
    Wonder if he'll have anything to say, directly or indirectly, about the elections.

    I'm expecting the turkey to pardon Trump.
    At least Melania gets to do her beloved White House Christmas again

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/02/melania-trump-audio-recording-christmas-stephanie-winston-wolkoff-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
  • isam said:
    Isn't this old news? Surely it was speculated at the start that the flu jab might offer partial immunity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
  • A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,740

    isam said:
    Isn't this old news? Surely it was speculated at the start that the flu jab might offer partial immunity.
    Isn't it a bit suspicious that it's being pushed by the CEO of a company that developed a T-cell test?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166
    edited November 20
    isam said:
    What an idiot. Cases in England have only been down week-to-week for the last three days, which is entirely consistent with the lockdown start on November 5, an incubation period of about a week and a couple of days for getting a test and it being analysed.
  • isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
  • A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    Depends on the role, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense (sic), Secretary of the Treasury, or AG would be hard to turn down.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134

    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    I doubt she'd want a dull, stressful management job but if it was something mildly glorious like Ambassador to the United Nations then it seems like an interesting career move, doesn't it? No disrespect to the office of Senator to the state of Maine, but if you're like 67 years old and you've done that job for a bit why not make a move?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624

    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    Depends on the role, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense (sic), Secretary of the Treasury, or AG would be hard to turn down.
    Also, how many Rep Senators are deeply depressed about Trump and the state of the GOP. How many are expecting to get dumped by GOP in the 2022 primaries.

    The issue would be bad feeling it might create amongst Dems.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,619

    First like Trump. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to my attorney, Lionel Hutz.

    TSE was first. Anyone who says otherwise will be referred to his specialist Hawaiian food supplier P Hutz
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341

    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    I doubt she'd want a dull, stressful management job but if it was something mildly glorious like Ambassador to the United Nations then it seems like an interesting career move, doesn't it? No disrespect to the office of Senator to the state of Maine, but if you're like 67 years old and you've done that job for a bit why not make a move?
    Did I read that Obama might become US Ambassador in London?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,152
    isam said:
    Would be interested in the report of that. It says a quarter could be immune due to cross-immunity, that would be far lower than was speculated in the early days, and prior immunity plus COVID specific antigens would still be well short of the herd immunity level (indeed the original spread rate would then have to be seen in light of prior immunity, to reveal a MORE transmissible disease, and the required rate for herd immunity would be concomitantly higher!). So, it probably makes less difference than you might think.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,734
    isam said:
    I read that study.
    They concluded that up to 25% would have a temporary degree of immunity caused by T-cells generated by other coronaviruses. This could help people fight off an infection - but unlikely to prevent an infection in the first place.

    Summary of what does what (oversimplified; please correct if you know better):

    - Antibodies. Intercept the virus, coat it, and make it unable to get into cells. Prevent infection. Antibodies were not present in these people.
    - T-cells. Attack the virus. When it has infected cells and taken them over, goes in and destroys. Also activates B-cells as it goes. Usually drops off over 3-5 months following infection, but memory cells stand by to respawn these as needed. Fights off infection once infected.
    - B-cells. Generate antibodies as needed to mop up the virus as the T-cells fight.

    This means that those people may well be infectious when hit by the virus. Enough antibodies makes the virus effectively "bounce off" and the person doesn't get infected. As antibodies subside (or in their absence), the virus gets in, invades cells, starts producing more of itself and infecting others, and the T-cells swing into action to fight them off.

    The presence of T-cells from other coronaviruses that can swing into action early would infer that those with these would have milder symptoms or asymptomatic cases.

    Given that 20%-40% of infectees remain asymptomatic throughout their infection (a lot more - up to 86% - are not symptomatic on testing, but the majority of these are merely pre-symptomatic; most of these go on to develop symptoms later), this could help explain those asymptomatic cases.

    It doesn't provide anything useful beyond that - we already knew we had that sort of level of asymptomatic people.

    It also points out that far more people think they've had covid than actually have had covid. Is that emphasised in this article?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    edited November 20

    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    Depends on the role, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense (sic), Secretary of the Treasury, or AG would be hard to turn down.
    Also, how many Rep Senators are deeply depressed about Trump and the state of the GOP. How many are expecting to get dumped by GOP in the 2022 primaries.

    The issue would be bad feeling it might create amongst Dems.
    There would be some irritation from the left on Twitter but Joe Biden's superpower is ignoring irritation from the left, and Twitter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,619
    On Topic what possible excuse is there not to pay PV markets out?

    Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131

    Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667

  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166

    On Topic what possible excuse is there not to pay PV markets out?

    Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131

    Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667

    Lots of the Biden votes are illegal apparently.
  • A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    I doubt she'd want a dull, stressful management job but if it was something mildly glorious like Ambassador to the United Nations then it seems like an interesting career move, doesn't it? No disrespect to the office of Senator to the state of Maine, but if you're like 67 years old and you've done that job for a bit why not make a move?
    Did I read that Obama might become US Ambassador in London?
    Obama as ambassador seems unlikely. As a former president, he retains full Secret Service protection, and the British government would never allow dozens of armed American guards in London closing roads whenever the ambassador fancied a picnic with the girls.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 259
    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,734
    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:
    Would be interested in the report of that. It says a quarter could be immune due to cross-immunity, that would be far lower than was speculated in the early days, and prior immunity plus COVID specific antigens would still be well short of the herd immunity level (indeed the original spread rate would then have to be seen in light of prior immunity, to reveal a MORE transmissible disease, and the required rate for herd immunity would be concomitantly higher!). So, it probably makes less difference than you might think.
    In addition - it’s not like it’s something that has changed.
    We’ve had this level of spread and hospitalisation and death with this in the background all along. It’s not some new thing that’s sprung up; it hasn’t changed the existing struggle with infection rates.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,777

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    Flaw in that plan is that the vaccine hasn't been developed for paediatric use AIUI.

    Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I was hoping when Betfair merged with the famously publicity shy Paddy Power that Betfair might start doing some early payouts for publicity, but alas we've got the opposite.

    How can an exchange do that?! They'd be paying out with other peoples money!
    Betfair do offer more than an exchange.
    That’s why their sportsbook can pay out earlier, because it’s Betfair’s money. But they can’t do early pay outs like Paddy Power can on the exchange, because it’s not their money they’d be paying out!
    I know, you're not telling me anything I don't already know.
    So why did you hope they might pay out early like paddy power?! You must have known it was impossible
    Come on Sam, Betdaq have paid up - no need to be a Betfair apologist :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624

    A question regrding Biden's possible cabinet picks. Quite a few potential names (Warren, Sanders, Tuckworth etc.) are sitting Senators. Given the likely tightness of the Senate, is Biden going to want to lose these Dem supporting Senators and risk Governors picks, special elections and the like?

    (Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)

    For your latter point, we could see the spectacle of GOP senators voting against confirming GOP senators to the cabinet.
    Would any such Republican Senators even be tempted? It'd be the end of their Senate career and Biden is only likely to serve one term.

    Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
    I doubt she'd want a dull, stressful management job but if it was something mildly glorious like Ambassador to the United Nations then it seems like an interesting career move, doesn't it? No disrespect to the office of Senator to the state of Maine, but if you're like 67 years old and you've done that job for a bit why not make a move?
    Did I read that Obama might become US Ambassador in London?
    I don't know if you did... but I have just read it now. :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    nico679 said:

    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .

    I hope not.

    https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Lindsey-Graham-Kamala-Harris-fist-bump-video-Trump-15736695.php
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,777
    nico679 said:

    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .

    Disagree. There will always be a hardcore of Trumptonite GOP but Biden's goal is to work with the Romneyite wing of the party and that will cover 60-70% of the US population.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,734

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    Flaw in that plan is that the vaccine hasn't been developed for paediatric use AIUI.

    Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.

    You could give the Pfizer one to most secondary school pupils (it was trialled on ages 12 and over), and they’re probably the biggest source of spread in the school environments.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    edited November 20
    Gaussian said:

    On Topic what possible excuse is there not to pay PV markets out?

    Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131

    Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667

    Lots of the Biden votes are illegal apparently.
    Worse than that, they were cast by Democrats.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:
    Would be interested in the report of that. It says a quarter could be immune due to cross-immunity, that would be far lower than was speculated in the early days, and prior immunity plus COVID specific antigens would still be well short of the herd immunity level (indeed the original spread rate would then have to be seen in light of prior immunity, to reveal a MORE transmissible disease, and the required rate for herd immunity would be concomitantly higher!). So, it probably makes less difference than you might think.
    In addition - it’s not like it’s something that has changed.
    We’ve had this level of spread and hospitalisation and death with this in the background all along. It’s not some new thing that’s sprung up; it hasn’t changed the existing struggle with infection rates.
    What's more, any immunity derived from cold coronaviruses could actually be lower than at the start of pandemic now, due to those viruses also being hampered by the Covid measures.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,190

    On Topic what possible excuse is there not to pay PV markets out?

    Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131

    Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667

    I agree. BF`s own rules say: "This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,494
    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 621

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    Flaw in that plan is that the vaccine hasn't been developed for paediatric use AIUI.

    Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.

    Quite - once the over 65's are vaccinated, the deaths will plummet by 90% or more, and there will be less pressure on healthcare. Then as the rest of us get the jab the restrictions will ease as the case numbers plummet too. We've not experienced this before, so its natural that some don't believe this will happen, or are just in a depressed funk, but by summer next year normality, if not here, will be clearly in sight.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,841

    Gaussian said:

    On Topic what possible excuse is there not to pay PV markets out?

    Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131

    Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667

    Lots of the Biden votes are illegal apparently.
    Worse than that, they were cast by Democrats.
    The odds must represent the risk that the election as a whole is declared void. However Betfair have already settled 44 (?) state markets, so they are clearly not taking a consistent approach to that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,190

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    For NHS jab I thought you had to be over 65.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561
    So how did Biden do in the rustbelt states that Obama won and Clinton lost?
    Ohio-Penn-Michigan-Wisconsin

    Given that overall he improved the Dem vote margin nationally by 2% compared to Clinton: He did about the same in those states. Wisconsin a bit worse, Michigan a bit better, Penn (where Biden was born) the same improvement as nationally, Ohio still has a few votes to count but will be about the same.

    Did he at least halt the trend of those states to lean more Republican?
    Looking at this, there wasn't much of a trend in previous elections:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/

    So not really seeing any evidence that Biden did especially well in those states, no better than the increase in the national vote margin.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,494
    Stocky said:

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    For NHS jab I thought you had to be over 65.
    Over 50s from 1st December
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,310
    edited November 20

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    Flaw in that plan is that the vaccine hasn't been developed for paediatric use AIUI.

    Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.

    We should prioritise the people *spreading* the virus, as well as those most likely to die from it.

    ETA one other reason for vaccinating children is that it is easy because they all turn up at the same big buildings, so just send a few nurses along. This also applies to care home residents and students. But vaccinating all (say) 70-year-olds is a logistical nightmare because they are randomly scattered about the country; maybe the same opt-in offer as the flu vaccine would get about half of them, otherwise door-to-door vaccination would be expensive and inefficient.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    £13.99 at Boots.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,414
    One of the biggest mysteries in gambling is why Betfair have remianed so popular. If you are a regular winner they take a huge percentage of your winnings through premium charge and their customer service is always terrible. Betdaq lacks the liquidity but they only charge 2%. I dont why the bigger hitters have just not moved accross to them
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,026

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.

    isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    I would want to see the vaccine used on the oldies first personally. I am no vaccine sceptic but there are always risks with any new medical treatment, and kids shouldn't be guinea pigs, especially since they are at minimal risk from the virus itself.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    I think some pharmacists do it for £15-£20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,190

    One of the biggest mysteries in gambling is why Betfair have remianed so popular. If you are a regular winner they take a huge percentage of your winnings through premium charge and their customer service is always terrible. Betdaq lacks the liquidity but they only charge 2%. I dont why the bigger hitters have just not moved accross to them

    I`m with BF and they only charge me 2% on any winnings
  • isam said:
    Actually there was one sort of lockdown that might be responsible for the drop. We closed the schools. It was half term in much of England and Wales three weeks ago.

    Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
    Flaw in that plan is that the vaccine hasn't been developed for paediatric use AIUI.

    Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.

    We should prioritise the people *spreading* the virus, as well as those most likely to die from it.
    Yes which is why care home workers are in the first section to be immunised and frontline NHS are in the second section to be immunised. Because they're highest risk to spread the virus to those who are highest risk.

    Teenagers are not high risk of spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Its possible that they can, but it isn't the best return on investment while the stocks of vaccines are limited.
  • Morning all! An entertaining exchange on Twitter direct mail with Total Fitness. Their Twitter team managed to commit two further breaches of contract...

    Having been advised by email that our contracts had been unilaterally extended (errr no) Twitter went one step further. An invitation to be released from our contracts if we pay them for services they did not provide. And the comment that our memberships had been frozen (unilaterally by them) during closed months. The contract did not provide them any right to freeze contracts, nor if they tried to argue the clause allowing us to request a freeze of up to three months applied to them would it apply as it wasn't a request and it was for longer than the stipulated maximum of three months.

    I repeatedly advised their Twitter team to speak to their legal team before responding further (my original DM was to ask to speak to their legal team) but they kept digging and provided me with more oopsies to quote to the Competition and Markets Authority complaints service.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,494
    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    £13.99 at Boots.

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    I think some pharmacists do it for £15-£20
    I'm not going private, comrades!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,293
    Stocky said:

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    For NHS jab I thought you had to be over 65.
    My surgery is telling me that. 50-64 are not at risk. It also adds "We are awaiting clarification from the government."
  • Morning all! An entertaining exchange on Twitter direct mail with Total Fitness. Their Twitter team managed to commit two further breaches of contract...

    Having been advised by email that our contracts had been unilaterally extended (errr no) Twitter went one step further. An invitation to be released from our contracts if we pay them for services they did not provide. And the comment that our memberships had been frozen (unilaterally by them) during closed months. The contract did not provide them any right to freeze contracts, nor if they tried to argue the clause allowing us to request a freeze of up to three months applied to them would it apply as it wasn't a request and it was for longer than the stipulated maximum of three months.

    I repeatedly advised their Twitter team to speak to their legal team before responding further (my original DM was to ask to speak to their legal team) but they kept digging and provided me with more oopsies to quote to the Competition and Markets Authority complaints service.

    Schoolboy error.

    Once someone asks to speak to legal then escalate it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    Scheme starts Dec 1st IIRC. For us over 60's, at surgeries in this area at any rate they run special clinics, often on a Saturday morning, with 5 minute appointments. It's take your coat off, roll up your sleeve, jab and it's done.
    Check your local surgery website ;late next week.
    Or local pharmacies often, but not invariably, offer the service.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166
    edited November 20

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    I think some pharmacists do it for £15-£20
    £8 at Asda in-store pharmacies.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    £13.99 at Boots.

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    I think some pharmacists do it for £15-£20
    I'm not going private, comrades!
    When we get home without you, I'll call your folks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,494

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    Scheme starts Dec 1st IIRC. For us over 60's, at surgeries in this area at any rate they run special clinics, often on a Saturday morning, with 5 minute appointments. It's take your coat off, roll up your sleeve, jab and it's done.
    Check your local surgery website ;late next week.
    Or local pharmacies often, but not invariably, offer the service.
    Thanks!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626

    One of the biggest mysteries in gambling is why Betfair have remianed so popular. If you are a regular winner they take a huge percentage of your winnings through premium charge and their customer service is always terrible. Betdaq lacks the liquidity but they only charge 2%. I dont why the bigger hitters have just not moved accross to them

    Betfair has more markets and the mug money there is astounding
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,770
    nico679 said:

    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .

    Johnson will 100% do a replay of the Trump legal shenanigans at the next GE. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves about what he is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,740
    Dura_Ace said:

    nico679 said:

    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .

    Johnson will 100% do a replay of the Trump legal shenanigans at the next GE. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves about what he is.
    I find that hard to believe. It seems as though the courts play a regular feature in the US elections, to a level far in excess than seen in the UK.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    nico679 said:

    In Michigan if any members of the state canvass board refuse to certify the results the governor can fire them and appoint someone else . Once the results are certified by the SOS these go to the governor who then confirms the state electors for Biden . Both the governor and SOS are Dems . If the state legislators tried to sent a different slate of electors the governors take precedence .

    The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .

    Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .

    That ships sailed in the USA .

    Johnson will 100% do a replay of the Trump legal shenanigans at the next GE. Those who think otherwise are deluding themselves about what he is.
    Nonsensical.

    Johnson is nothing like Trump and the UK is nothing like the USA.

    If the election had happened in this country instead of the USA then Biden would have kissed the Queen's hand the day after the election.
  • dixiedean said:

    Stocky said:

    I'm over 50. Can anyone advise how I go about getting my flu jab? Ta.

    For NHS jab I thought you had to be over 65.
    My surgery is telling me that. 50-64 are not at risk. It also adds "We are awaiting clarification from the government."
    My surgery has just sent a text begging people to stop bugging them about the over 50s flu jab. Basically: don't call us, we'll call you.
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