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Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race – politicalbetting
Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race – politicalbetting.com
Above is the latest Betdata.io chart on the Betfair 2020 White House race which most bookies settled nearly a fortnight ago. Not so with Betfair who continue to accept bets and as I write the total value of bets matched has reached a staggering £793m up £166m over the past week.
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Sadly it's nothing new. I voted with my feet last year over their disregard of their own rules for the Brexit markets.
If you trade back and forth between 1.04 and 1.05, you could end up matching £100 for every £1 difference it actually makes to your position. If any trades are losing positions, they will cancel themselves out. If two or more people are engaged in this, the net effect could quite literally be zero.
It would have made some sort of sense if Betfair had not paid out on ANY election bets. Or they could have paid out on them all. The current half-way house makes no kind of sense.
They could now face some quite genyuine challenges from punters who placed losing bets after the results became known. Unfortunately aggrieved punters have only the useless Gambling Commission to assist them. The Courts might work better, but expensive and it would require a joint action.
My own recourse will be to transfer my balances to Betdaq and use them in future. It won't bother Betfair, I'm sure, but if enough of us did it......
Advised just to say "my attorney, c/o P. O. Box 666".
Biden 1.05
Democrats 1.05
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.04
Trump ECV 210-239 1.08
Biden ECV 300-329 1.06
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.03
AZ Dem 1.04
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.04
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.04
WI Dem 1.05
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1329718513070698504
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1329631623449600000
Mike Pence (if Trump resigns)
Nancy Pelosi (if Trump locks himself in)
Kamala Harris (if Biden is taken ill in the next two months)
Joe Biden (if we wake up in the shower and find the coup plot was all a dream)
Back in 2016 they paid out in October 2016 on Clinton winning, even when she led by less in the polls than Biden was leading at the equivalent point.
Some of those early winnings were placed on Trump winning which was nice from a betting point of view.
Ditto for naming the market "Next President", which had people putting money on Pence or Harris long after they had any chance of winning the election.
It's not like this is their first election, and 2000 was a great example of problems that can occur, so I think it's all quite deliberate, and the only remedy is to not put money on markets with woolly rules.
Wonder if he'll have anything to say, directly or indirectly, about the elections.
https://twitter.com/jo_mendelson/status/1329325952233394176?s=19
(Actually, he should appoint some Rep Senators from states where a Democratic Governor has the pick!)
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/02/melania-trump-audio-recording-christmas-stephanie-winston-wolkoff-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
Collins seems the most logical pick but she's just won another six year Senate term with the potential of running again in six years. Why trade that in now for four years in Biden's cabinet?
Schoolchildren should be prioritised for the vaccine. They might not get ill but can certainly spread the virus.
The issue would be bad feeling it might create amongst Dems.
They concluded that up to 25% would have a temporary degree of immunity caused by T-cells generated by other coronaviruses. This could help people fight off an infection - but unlikely to prevent an infection in the first place.
Summary of what does what (oversimplified; please correct if you know better):
- Antibodies. Intercept the virus, coat it, and make it unable to get into cells. Prevent infection. Antibodies were not present in these people.
- T-cells. Attack the virus. When it has infected cells and taken them over, goes in and destroys. Also activates B-cells as it goes. Usually drops off over 3-5 months following infection, but memory cells stand by to respawn these as needed. Fights off infection once infected.
- B-cells. Generate antibodies as needed to mop up the virus as the T-cells fight.
This means that those people may well be infectious when hit by the virus. Enough antibodies makes the virus effectively "bounce off" and the person doesn't get infected. As antibodies subside (or in their absence), the virus gets in, invades cells, starts producing more of itself and infecting others, and the T-cells swing into action to fight them off.
The presence of T-cells from other coronaviruses that can swing into action early would infer that those with these would have milder symptoms or asymptomatic cases.
Given that 20%-40% of infectees remain asymptomatic throughout their infection (a lot more - up to 86% - are not symptomatic on testing, but the majority of these are merely pre-symptomatic; most of these go on to develop symptoms later), this could help explain those asymptomatic cases.
It doesn't provide anything useful beyond that - we already knew we had that sort of level of asymptomatic people.
It also points out that far more people think they've had covid than actually have had covid. Is that emphasised in this article?
Biden over 75m currently stands at 79,685,131
Trump over 70m currently 73,701,667
https://twitter.com/PaOShea1/status/1329540293834776578
The fact some GOP members are entertaining effectively overturning the results in certain swing states highlights what utter scum they are . Trump isn’t even hiding his attempts to stage a coup . It won’t work but he is operating a scorched earth policy on democracy .
Biden’s attempts at reaching across aisle are living in la la land . He’s living in a different world where that was possible , America is beyond any chance of recovering from 4 years of Trump . Whatever problems we may have in Europe we are still able to disagree politically , and can still have friendships with those on opposing political sides .
That ships sailed in the USA .
We’ve had this level of spread and hospitalisation and death with this in the background all along. It’s not some new thing that’s sprung up; it hasn’t changed the existing struggle with infection rates.
Also, why prioritise those groups for whom CV19 is mostly harmless? Protect the vulnerable, then let everyone else get on with our lives.
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Lindsey-Graham-Kamala-Harris-fist-bump-video-Trump-15736695.php
Ohio-Penn-Michigan-Wisconsin
Given that overall he improved the Dem vote margin nationally by 2% compared to Clinton: He did about the same in those states. Wisconsin a bit worse, Michigan a bit better, Penn (where Biden was born) the same improvement as nationally, Ohio still has a few votes to count but will be about the same.
Did he at least halt the trend of those states to lean more Republican?
Looking at this, there wasn't much of a trend in previous elections:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/
So not really seeing any evidence that Biden did especially well in those states, no better than the increase in the national vote margin.
ETA one other reason for vaccinating children is that it is easy because they all turn up at the same big buildings, so just send a few nurses along. This also applies to care home residents and students. But vaccinating all (say) 70-year-olds is a logistical nightmare because they are randomly scattered about the country; maybe the same opt-in offer as the flu vaccine would get about half of them, otherwise door-to-door vaccination would be expensive and inefficient.
Teenagers are not high risk of spreading the virus to the vulnerable. Its possible that they can, but it isn't the best return on investment while the stocks of vaccines are limited.
Having been advised by email that our contracts had been unilaterally extended (errr no) Twitter went one step further. An invitation to be released from our contracts if we pay them for services they did not provide. And the comment that our memberships had been frozen (unilaterally by them) during closed months. The contract did not provide them any right to freeze contracts, nor if they tried to argue the clause allowing us to request a freeze of up to three months applied to them would it apply as it wasn't a request and it was for longer than the stipulated maximum of three months.
I repeatedly advised their Twitter team to speak to their legal team before responding further (my original DM was to ask to speak to their legal team) but they kept digging and provided me with more oopsies to quote to the Competition and Markets Authority complaints service.
Once someone asks to speak to legal then escalate it.
Check your local surgery website ;late next week.
Or local pharmacies often, but not invariably, offer the service.
Johnson is nothing like Trump and the UK is nothing like the USA.
If the election had happened in this country instead of the USA then Biden would have kissed the Queen's hand the day after the election.