Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year – politicalb
Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year – politicalbetting.com
Above is the market from Smarkets, the betting exchange that unlike Betfair settled Biden bets at the weekend, on whether there’ll be a UK deal with the EU by the end of December.
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I think it's quite likely there will be a deal agreed, and then a quick two month standstill transition extension to dot all the i's and cross all the t's.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1326584404429385733
Nice
I think mini deals to keep the planes flying etc would happen even in the absence of a deal on customs, tarrifs and quotas. Is that enough for this market?
Firstly, could everyone who likes reporting day data, please run round screaming, while on fire (ignition sources available on request).
Secondly look at specimen day data -
vs yesterday
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/17/labour-time-to-turn-blue/
The mass testing in Liverpool is not thought to be feeding into the figure yet.
Certainly on my manor the figures are looking grim. 200 inpatients, 28 on ICU, figures that are not far off the April peak, and still rising. Press-gangs out to fill staffing gaps on the respiratory front line with anyone with a pulse. It's horrible, but at least not the sense of panic at Easter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33173488
So it's not just a matter of the independence vote - and even in that case there is a strong argument that above all it should be permitted for that if nothing else, given the long term impact. The 16 andf 17 yos will be more affected than old f**ts like me whereas in an ordinary election the diferential is much less (and negligible in recent Westminster elections ...). So I think it a shame it wasn't allowed for the Brexit one.
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1326943368111394831?s=20
https://www.networthlist.org/laurence-fox-net-worth-81584
Edit: For avoidance of doubt, this doesn't mean that it's a good idea to place too much weight on a single day's figures is a good idea, but I really don't think it makes sense to simply dismiss it as reporting day stuff. As I've pointed out before, the reporting day figures generally correlate pretty well to the final specimen date figures, and so they have predictive power.
I still don’t agree with it, but interesting indeed that it has unanimous support in Scotland.
The issue is that R1.1 isn't good enough because cases are still rising. The ZOE app data is probably the best real time indicator we have and that's showing R0.9 nationally and R1.0 in England.
Specimen day data is closer to reality than reporting date.
Today
Yesterday
I would also remind everyone that whatever I disagree with them on the Greens have Views on racism.
Nicaragua: Estonia (previously for 2 years) Brazil:
Isle of Man Austria
Guernsey:
Jersey:
Ecuador:
Argentina:
https://odileeds.github.io/covid-19/LocalAuthorities/hexmap.html
However, I think the battle has already been lost. If you have it for some votes for some parts of the country, I think it is pretty hard to resist the argument for another vote or other parts of the country.
Their main issue though is that they actually don't know what they're talking about - sure they know the green bit, but they don't have a clue about the non-green bit, even if that is what they're trying to argue against.
Nuclear energy is the easiest example - none of the Greens have a clue about it, and yet they're absolutely sure that it's a bad option. I'd not make the case for nuclear being super-green, but perhaps you could, and the greens haven't even wondered about that. UK greens at least are just de-industrialists, anti-economists, and without sense.
Free money from Sunak.
Boris discovering a vaccine.
Nothing whatsoever to do with Corbyn being thrown out. Keep Corbyn out!
Not sure about Wales or NI.
So they don't have that much resonance even on Green issues, and what else do they have? Well, more people are talking about Universal Basic Income now, but since they lack even the LDs slim chances in most seats, and not much of a local presence in most places, it's hard for them.
Or indeed Drakeford...
Not a leader though. Protest politician.
I'm really very right indeed economically (but very liberal mostly), but I think it's a very interesting idea. What I like about it is that it gets rid of a whole load of bureaucracy, and removes most of the cheating.
I even wonder whether you could just plough back the savings from not asking about disability etc into it so that you could get rid of all that unnecessary government too.
As a result they started out being anti pretty much everything.
In many countries - such as Germany, the Green parties have gone beyond this, to the point of being prepared to upset some factions by being in favour of things.
This doesn't seem to have happened in the UK Green party.
Back to the poll. Without wishing to appear like HYUFD, I think Johnson has smashed it out of the park this week, excellent Covid figures, a vaccine and with a trade deal at the weekend, the Conservatives will be 5 to 8 points plus ahead by December Granted, it will all be downhill in the New Year, but credit where it is due.
I doubt if even his uncle’s worth that after a distinguished career in film spanning 60 years.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3
"Derived from cell phone data, our mobility networks map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighborhoods (census block groups, or CBGs) to points of interest (POIs) such as restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 57k CBGs to 553k POIs with 5.4 billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple SEIR model can accurately fit the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in population behavior over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of “superspreader” POIs account for a large majority of infections and that restricting maximum occupancy at each POI is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk... "
Most people would be extremely lucky to retire on such terms!
https://twitter.com/MikeHolden42/status/1326933141844615169
That said, Starmer needs to show he is actually pulling voters over - it's nice that 25% of Tory voters think well of him, but unless some actually vote accordingly it's actually irrelevant in terms of winning.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1326934324831281152
So far as I understand it the experiments along these lines haven't worked, but then if the left are in charge they can fuck up even the best ideas.
In my view the idea that you never have to tell the state anything - if you're employed, lost a leg, feeling a bit ill and can't go in to work that day, doctors certificate, union official strike - who knows. The state won't care. Huge savings.
And then you tax income from penny one.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1326962734337040385?s=20
The Green objections to nuclear power are solid and sensible; there is a legacy of pollution that will outlast the next thousand generations, and inflicting the risks on future generations is selfish and irresponsible. But in the short term, we now need it along with every other measure you can think of, just to get carbon emissions down to a sensible level.
I changed my mind on nuclear power some years ago, and I'm strongly in favour of it, and the reasons for that change are entirely in the "green" policy sphere. It baffles me that many Greens haven't caught up, but their objections are merely outdated, not senseless.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1326965459619631104?s=20
There is some small hope with nuclear power that fusion energy might suddenly work. Admittedly some small risk too that half the country might disappear in a crater - when there was talk of creating a mini-black-hole at Cern you have to start to worry.
To my mind the future is technology and we should see where it takes us. We should also make sure that the 'us' bit is as rich as it can be - the future should be better for all the species of the Earth (not wasps or crocodiles though).
But we'll see. Plenty of time before the next election for me to make up my mind. If a pollster phoned me today, you'd find me in the "2019 Lib Dem / VI Labour" part of the table.
Edit:
STEPHEN GLOVER: A successful roll-out of the vaccine is Boris Johnson's last chance to show he's up to the job - or he's finished
(Daily Mail)