Second. The previous thread has not been certified. There are mystery people still posting on it. I refuse to accept this new thread. I'm going to sue. And get the old thread back. I was on the old thread and suddenly there is a new one. No MSM gets to tell me there is a new thread... Continues till Coup.
2020 is shaping up to be an interesting year, isn't it? And not in a good way. The most astonishing in a series of most astonishing things is that we are discussing, quite seriously, the possibility of a coup d'état in the United States. Just step back and think about that.
That PB is discussing it makes it no more likely to happen: the chances being precisely nil before PB discussed it and precisely nil now.
And yes, 2020 has been more than a bit rubbish, but it is ending with a Biden victory and a vaccine, so has a very positive twist in the tail.
It's testament to the gravity of the situation that elements of Fox News are getting queasy - normally they'd be lapping up any attempts to blacken the name of liberals. This is Frankenstein's Monster stuff.
Appropos of nothing, I do like that I was rewatching some old Last Week Tonight, and in its very second episode, one of the first gags involved Biden interrupting a press conference by walking out with an open robe. Not sure they at least saw him as a credible candidate post Obama.
Any truth in the suggestion that Trump's announcement of the Acting Secretary of Defense is illegal? Apparently there's already a Senate confirmed Deputy who should have the role by statute.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
His opponent got 48%. Hardly a slam dunk.
I agree, but he was still so close and outdid Trump (just), so can the Democrats motiviate people enough? They'll try I'm sure, but I'm wary of too much good news.
The actual "news" bit of Fox News is can actually be quite good. Maybe they could actually ditch the crazies and reposition themselves as a solid mainstream right leaning new operation. A big step, but you'd hope they'd be something of a market for it. And it is actually a gap in the market that the US sorely need if it is going to return to sanity and break the cycle of polarisation.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
His opponent got 48%. Hardly a slam dunk.
It depends upon both parties GOTV operation, turnout would almost certainly be down. In normal circumstances I'd expect that to benefit the GOP but I'm not sure to be honest it could go either way.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
I've noticed quite a few former Governors are currently in the US Senate. Maybe it's naiive of me, but is it that much better a job? Granted, it's national, and some governors are probably term limited.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
I don't, I don't trust the SC.
It would certainly be a novel approach for a state to voluntarily disenfranchise themselves in the electoral college.
The actual "news" bit of Fox News is can actually be quite good. Maybe they could actually ditch the crazies and reposition themselves as a solid mainstream right leaning new operation. A big step, but you'd hope they'd be something of a market for it. And it is actually a gap in the market that the US sorely need if it is going to return to sanity and break the cycle of polarisation.
The problem is the "crazies" are the ones with the big viewerships. Isn't Tucker Carlson now the biggest news show in the US now?
Any truth in the suggestion that Trump's announcement of the Acting Secretary of Defense is illegal? Apparently there's already a Senate confirmed Deputy who should have the role by statute.
This is Espers view:
"Who’s going to come in behind me? It’s going to be a real ‘yes man.’ And then God help us.”
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
I've also noticed at least two states had measures whereby referendums approved by voters would need to be confirmed in a second vote, or put to a second vote if the legislature rejected it. I believe both such measures failed, but interesting if it was a wider trend of just prompted by some local matters.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
I don't, I don't trust the SC.
It would certainly be a novel approach for a state to voluntarily disenfranchise themselves in the electoral college.
SC won't grant that relief. It'd be 9-0 with an 'opinion' by at Thomas, ALito and ACB possibly Gorsuch.
I had a look at the "twenty lessons to fight tyranny", and picked out the ones Fox could learn most from
1. Do not obey in advance [you bent over backwards to enable Trump's bs, but it has not spared you] 2. Defend institutions [...and then they came for us, and there was no-one left to defend us!] 3. Beware the one party state [star with not working towards it] 4. Take responsibility for the face of the world [...your shrill partisanship has really made things worse] 5. Remember professional ethics [ah hahahahaha] 6. Be wary of paramilitaries [yeah, we mean your NRA chums] 10. Believe in truth [or at least exchange phone numbers. Call her, you might learn to love her] 11. Investigate [probably laptop shops aren't where the real action is, but have a merit badge for effort] 16. Learn from peers in other countries [let's start with the names of those countries] 17. Listen for dangerous words [and probably stop using them] 18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives [I can see your mistake, you were unthinkable when the calm was here]
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
You're one of those "don't get a dog, it'll only die in the end" people, aren't you?
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
Utter nonsense. No way any sort of radical agenda gets through a 50-50 senate. You’d need to get past Manchin and Sinema for starters.
The 2022 Senate map is actually pretty good for the Democrats, but the Dems screwing up the senate races has almost become a biennial tradiation.
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
Worrying about Joe Manchin potentially being the median senator when the US president is replacing the heads of the army, CIA, FBI and openly calling for the cancellation of Pennsylvania's votes might be just slightly misplaced.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
If you think a 50:50 Senate, with Biden in the White House, is the ‘radical left’ taking control, then you could probably audition as Tucker Carlson’s replacement.
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
"Pushing the Biden agenda" will lead to a midterm landslide? Is this Joe Biden who has probably just racked up 80 million votes in a Presidential election.
Incidentally i get the impression that AOC has far more about her than the stereotypical "left wing lunatic" that she is often portrayed as. She may or may not be pretty radical. But she also appears to be an extremely astute politician, who isn't interested in radicalism unless it can be moulded to an electoral winning coalition.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Wouldn't he Dems care with a 15 seat Supreme Court and Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico?
While that's superficially true, it's also somewhat misleading.
Loeffler, the incumbent who may face charges for inside trading off a Senate briefing on Covid, was challenged by Collins for her failure to be pro-Trump enough. She got 25.9%.
Collins, the even more pro-Trump candidate, got 20.0%.
Between them, they got 45.9%, well below the 49.7% achieved by incumbent Purdue in the regular Georgia Senate race.
24% of voters expect the vote to be overturned. Only 45% of Republicans think its unlikely to be overturned. This isnt some fringe idea, however crazy that might sound in the safety of the UK.
I'm really not sure the GOP will get a huge turnout in 2022. The presence of Trump at this election highly likely led to their polling outperformance.
If the Democrats have complete control of Congress and the Presidency with AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda you can bet Republicans will be queuing round the block in 2022
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
If you think a 50:50 Senate, with Biden in the White House, is the ‘radical left’ taking control, then you could probably audition as Tucker Carlson’s replacement.
Hard to imagine the Democratic Senator for West Virginia Joe Manchin is going to sign up for any crazy stuff from Biden.
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
If you think a 50:50 Senate, with Biden in the White House, is the ‘radical left’ taking control, then you could probably audition as Tucker Carlson’s replacement.
Harris would have the casting vote in the Senate, the Democratic majority in the House would be unchecked and Biden would not be focused on compromise with the GOP Senate but trying to contain the radical far left led by AOC
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
Are you sure? It would certainly be a yes from Kavanagh.
The Republican party seem to have two choices right now. One is to dump Trump. The other is to stick with him. Both those look like terrible choices, from the point of view of keeping their coalition together. (One of them is clearly better from the point of view of accounting for your actions in the hereafter, but that's another matter.) A third way of studied neutrality might have worked, but it's rapidly getting too late for that, surely?
(And as for Fox, Rupe's global business would presumably take a massive hit if Fox went from backing a dodgy right-winger to backing someone seeking to cancel the result of an election?)
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
If you think a 50:50 Senate, with Biden in the White House, is the ‘radical left’ taking control, then you could probably audition as Tucker Carlson’s replacement.
Harris would have the casting vote in the Senate, the Democratic majority in the House would be unchecked and Biden would not be focused on compromise with the GOP Senate but trying to contain the radical far left led by AOC
I believe all the polling shows Loeffler's in big trouble.
Just like the polling showed Collins was in big trouble in Maine?
Don't take anything for granted.
Polling in Georgia was once of the few success stories on November 3rd. And HYUFD normally sets great store by polling successes as indicators of the future...
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
Regardless, even if it was correct as I said it would lead to the radical far left taking control of Congress and pushing the Biden agenda, it would then most likely lead to the biggest midterm landslide victory for the post Trump GOP since WW2 in 2022, so would be the most pyrrhic of victories
If you think a 50:50 Senate, with Biden in the White House, is the ‘radical left’ taking control, then you could probably audition as Tucker Carlson’s replacement.
Harris would have the casting vote in the Senate, the Democratic majority in the House would be unchecked and Biden would not be focused on compromise with the GOP Senate but trying to contain the radical far left led by AOC
This is nonsense. There certainly isn't a clear majority for radical leftism in the House. There have been plenty of House Democrats blaming "the left" for their performance, or at least perceptions that the Democrats were pushing a radical agenda. And as pointed out, there isn't a lot of radical leftism in evidence in the Senate. Manchin isn't even in favour of abolishing the filibuster in the event that a minority GOP misuse it.
The Republican party seem to have two choices right now. One is to dump Trump. The other is to stick with him. Both those look like terrible choices, from the point of view of keeping their coalition together. (One of them is clearly better from the point of view of accounting for your actions in the hereafter, but that's another matter.) A third way of studied neutrality might have worked, but it's rapidly getting too late for that, surely?
(And as for Fox, Rupe's global business would presumably take a massive hit if Fox went from backing a dodgy right-winger to backing someone seeking to cancel the result of an election?)
Yet curiously we still put Russia Today on freeview in the UK, it is at least as bad as Fox.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
Are you sure? It would certainly be a yes from Kavanagh.
I think it would be a step too far for Kav actually.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
In two words Stacey Adams who has done wonders for the Democrats in Georgia and will relish this new challenges supported by the entire party across the US.
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
Are you sure? It would certainly be a yes from Kavanagh.
I think it would be a step too far for Kav actually.
Presumably they would vote as a pack?
i.e. only vote for Trump if they have 5 votes, voting for Trump as a dissenter must be the worst place to be for the judges. So its either Trump wins 6-3, 5-4 with Roberts in the 4 or by far the most likely 9-0 loss.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate before the midterms ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House beforehand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress before the midterms so a different scenario
GOP is seeking relief in a Pennsylvania filing of err... chucking all of Pennsylvania's electoral college votes out. I seriously hope that one heads all the way to SCOTUS actually.
Are you sure? It would certainly be a yes from Kavanagh.
I think it would be a step too far for Kav actually.
Presumably they would vote as a pack?
i.e. only vote for Trump if they have 5 votes, voting for Trump as a dissenter must be the worst place to be for the judges. So its either Trump wins 6-3, 5-4 with Roberts in the 4 or by far the most likely 9-0 loss.
That's good analysis.
The Supreme Court has (a) tended to make political decisions 9-0, (b) not been that much of a friend of Trump this electoral cycle, and (c) is full of people with their eyes on the history books.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
The Biden Arizona lead is down to just 15,000, with a couple of good drops for the President this afternoon.
The issue he has is that the number of ballots remaining is dropping fast. It was 130,000, when the lead was 20,000. It's now 15,000 with just 75,000 ballots remaining. Worse the remaining are largely provisional, so not all will count.
It's *possible* he pulls this out the hat, but he's like a guy who has to gets heads up 10 times in a row; just a single bad batch (or indeed a meaningful number of ballots being cast aside as the voters' postals had already been counted) and he's out.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need your party to control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
50/50 isn't control given that many Senators (Collins for R/Manchin for D) are at best "purple".
57/43 as in 2008 gives the opportunity to be radical, not 50/50.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
50/50 isn't control given that many Senators (Collins for R/Manchin for D) are at best "purple".
57/43 as in 2008 gives the opportunity to be radical, not 50/50.
Harris would have the casting vote, it is control, even Manchin in the end would not completely replace Obamacare for instance, he is still a Democrat.
The Democrats would have complete control of the 3 branches of the Federal government if they took the Senate and there would inevitably be a GOP backlash in the 2022 midterms as there was in 1994 and 2010
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
50/50 isn't control given that many Senators (Collins for R/Manchin for D) are at best "purple".
57/43 as in 2008 gives the opportunity to be radical, not 50/50.
Harris would have the casting vote, it is control, even Manchin in the end would not completely replace Obamacare for instance, he is still a Democrat.
The Democrats would have complete control of government if they took the Senate and there would inevitably be a GOP backlash in the 2010 midterms as there was in 1994 and 2010
You define "not completely replacing Obamacare" as "radical"?
Appropos of nothing, I do like that I was rewatching some old Last Week Tonight, and in its very second episode, one of the first gags involved Biden interrupting a press conference by walking out with an open robe. Not sure they at least saw him as a credible candidate post Obama.
I'm halfway through a documentary on the downfall of Mrs Thatcher whose YT uploader in 2014 used Trump Casino shots.
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need your party to control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
Just so i’m understanding you correctly. You believe it would be bad for the Democrats to win both Georgia seats because this would give them control of Congress, which would result in them pushing a radical agenda which would repel voters and mean that in 2022 they would... lose control of Congress? Something which they wouldn't have anyway unless they... win both Georgia seats. All seems a bit circular to me... Can’t really see the downside!
The Biden Arizona lead is down to just 15,000, with a couple of good drops for the President this afternoon.
The issue he has is that the number of ballots remaining is dropping fast. It was 130,000, when the lead was 20,000. It's now 15,000 with just 75,000 ballots remaining. Worse the remaining are largely provisional, so not all will count.
It's *possible* he pulls this out the hat, but he's like a guy who has to gets heads up 10 times in a row; just a single bad batch (or indeed a meaningful number of ballots being cast aside as the voters' postals had already been counted) and he's out.
Betfair has Rep 5.2 vs Dem 1.15 in a very thin market. It is unlikely Trump can overtake Biden but there must be a recount risk. (Arizona has 11 ECVs so it will not save Trump's presidency.)
I thought this weekend might have been the initial maximum moment of danger if the Trump Ultras started to take to the streets and things got out of hand, however, the concern now is that this is actually a gradual ratcheting of tensions and the lid will come off, not now, but some weeks away.
If you are a Trump Ultra, no one in the mass media is listening to you, you are being dismissed even by the once beloved Fox News. You still believe but, more importantly, you hate the other side and are getting increasingly stoked up.
What is more concerning is Trump is taking the bulk of the elected GOP reps with him right now. Is it a way of keeping the base warmed up until we get the Georgia Senate race done or is it more?
The danger is that its more, its building resentment, which is building trouble. Sure its 90%+ Trump will just walk out of the White House rather than be escorted but this building of resentment is going to see someone get killed.
I emailed someone in the US who used to work in the part of government that makes their business to understand trouble and asked what shes heard. Her former colleagues are reportedly genuinely concerned about the instability of the country in the short term. The hope is that it will stop on the runway before it takes off, we haven't seen big protests for example, but the worry is violence by small groups combined with Trump dismantling of whatever furniture of government he can is going to create more and more tension.
The Biden Arizona lead is down to just 15,000, with a couple of good drops for the President this afternoon.
The issue he has is that the number of ballots remaining is dropping fast. It was 130,000, when the lead was 20,000. It's now 15,000 with just 75,000 ballots remaining. Worse the remaining are largely provisional, so not all will count.
It's *possible* he pulls this out the hat, but he's like a guy who has to gets heads up 10 times in a row; just a single bad batch (or indeed a meaningful number of ballots being cast aside as the voters' postals had already been counted) and he's out.
Betfair has Rep 5.2 vs Dem 1.15 in a very thin market. It is unlikely Trump can overtake Biden but there must be a recount risk. (Arizona has 11 ECVs so it will not save Trump's presidency.)
Biden's ECV vote band includes 270 to 299 at 10 which might be better insurance (assuming I've added it up right).
I wonder if it's suddenly dawned on McConnell that he's going to lose both seats in Georgia.
One of them got 49.7% or thereabouts, could they really lose? I mean, even if the GOP begin tearing themselves apart that looks a tough ask. Would be fun though.
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
Leoffler loses in the head to head polling with Warnock.
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
Depends on the poll, however if the Democrats did take the Senate by the narrowest of margins by making it 50 50 with VP Harris having the casting vote it would likely spell midterm disaster for them in 2022 and be the most pyrrhic of victories as with a Democratic Congress the radical far left would take control of the Biden agenda which would lead to a huge GOP turnout in the 2022 midterms and most likely the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate back to the GOP.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
Maybe, maybe not.
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
Almost a certainty, every recent incoming President who has also seen his party win both chambers of congress when they came in has seen their party trounced in their first midterm elections, that was the case for Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 (the Democrats had control of the Senate by the 2002 midterms and Bush's party even gained seats by contrast).
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
As the Senate is split every three years it isn't automatic that the first election after a change of Presidency sees the President's party going backwards. It certainly happened in 1994 and 2008 (albeit from very, very high watermarks in the Senate). But those are the exceptions in recent years.
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House before hand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress so a different scenario
The fact that you shamelessly switched from talking about Senate to House in 2018 and 1982 proves that you either wilfully or ignorantly missed the fact that the House votes every election cycle whereas the Senate votes in thirds.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
So what, you need control of both the House and the Senate to really push a radical agenda as President, if you do not have control of at least one chamber then you are forced to compromise with your opponents.
50/50 isn't control given that many Senators (Collins for R/Manchin for D) are at best "purple".
57/43 as in 2008 gives the opportunity to be radical, not 50/50.
Sinema and Manchin have both been very willing to vote against their parties.
This really is bizarre. Maybe Trump has a point but it just looks like hurling a bunch of unrelated points at the wall to see what sticks. It is undignified, irrational and probably counterproductive.
If you look at the way that Senators vote, Republican Susan Collins is closer (35 percentage point difference in voting patterns ) to Kamala Harris, than she is to Kelly Loeffler (55 percentage points difference).
Comments
The previous thread has not been certified. There are mystery people still posting on it. I refuse to accept this new thread. I'm going to sue. And get the old thread back. I was on the old thread and suddenly there is a new one. No MSM gets to tell me there is a new thread...
Continues till Coup.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1325829177338114049?s=20
The wind does seem headed that way, doesn't it?
Trumpeters are complete fascists who will stop at nothing
What next an extermination programme for Registered Democrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47QZ6PoHl44
https://twitter.com/MarkSimoneNY/status/1325197381441302528?s=20
May yet happen...
Not sure how fair it was, but I recall a Maldives election where a guy got 47% in the first round (well ahead of the next placed guy), but failed to win the second round.
https://thehill.com/video/administration/522590-watch-live-trump-holds-campaign-rally-in-ohio
How many news channels does one country need?
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/senate
Leoffler and Perdue have coronavirus related scandals and Georgia is entering its THIRD wave.
The Dems have an effective vote by mail operation setup, the GOP do not.
If the GOP held on in the Senate it would ensure the compromises America needs under a pragmatic Biden presidency are made
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_media_(U.S._political_left)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_media_(U.S._political_right)
No idea how most of them make it work business wise.
Don't take anything for granted.
"Who’s going to come in behind me? It’s going to be a real ‘yes man.’ And then God help us.”
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/11/09/exclusive-esper-on-his-way-out-says-he-was-no-yes-man/
Also Collins had incumbency and a solid record of previous success in what is otherwise a solidly Democrat state. Loeffler has never won an election. The fact that she got such a small share of the GOP vote in the first round probably says a lot as well. I imagine a lot of Republican voters won't be prepared to vote for her.
1. Do not obey in advance
[you bent over backwards to enable Trump's bs, but it has not spared you]
2. Defend institutions
[...and then they came for us, and there was no-one left to defend us!]
3. Beware the one party state
[star with not working towards it]
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world
[...your shrill partisanship has really made things worse]
5. Remember professional ethics
[ah hahahahaha]
6. Be wary of paramilitaries
[yeah, we mean your NRA chums]
10. Believe in truth
[or at least exchange phone numbers. Call her, you might learn to love her]
11. Investigate
[probably laptop shops aren't where the real action is, but have a merit badge for effort]
16. Learn from peers in other countries
[let's start with the names of those countries]
17. Listen for dangerous words
[and probably stop using them]
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives
[I can see your mistake, you were unthinkable when the calm was here]
Don't forget that in the 2022 midterms the elections will be those last fought in 2016.
In 2016 the GOP won 20 States that they will be defending in an election won by Trump. Every single Senate seat went with the Presidential election, the only time that has ever happened. If there is a split in the GOP between Trumpists and others in the GOP then that could spell trouble for them.
The 2022 Senate map is actually pretty good for the Democrats, but the Dems screwing up the senate races has almost become a biennial tradiation.
If the radical far left take control of Congress and push President Biden to adopt their agenda there will be a huge GOP turnout in 2022 to match that for the Democrats in 2018
Incidentally i get the impression that AOC has far more about her than the stereotypical "left wing lunatic" that she is often portrayed as. She may or may not be pretty radical. But she also appears to be an extremely astute politician, who isn't interested in radicalism unless it can be moulded to an electoral winning coalition.
https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/ those lines look bad news for the GOP in GA runoffs to me.
Loeffler, the incumbent who may face charges for inside trading off a Senate briefing on Covid, was challenged by Collins for her failure to be pro-Trump enough. She got 25.9%.
Collins, the even more pro-Trump candidate, got 20.0%.
Between them, they got 45.9%, well below the 49.7% achieved by incumbent Purdue in the regular Georgia Senate race.
One is to dump Trump.
The other is to stick with him.
Both those look like terrible choices, from the point of view of keeping their coalition together. (One of them is clearly better from the point of view of accounting for your actions in the hereafter, but that's another matter.)
A third way of studied neutrality might have worked, but it's rapidly getting too late for that, surely?
(And as for Fox, Rupe's global business would presumably take a massive hit if Fox went from backing a dodgy right-winger to backing someone seeking to cancel the result of an election?)
2002 the GOP flipped the Senate (the Democrats holding it in 2000 despite Bush's Presidential victory).
2018 the GOP increased their majority.
1982 no change in GOP seats.
i.e. only vote for Trump if they have 5 votes, voting for Trump as a dissenter must be the worst place to be for the judges. So its either Trump wins 6-3, 5-4 with Roberts in the 4 or by far the most likely 9-0 loss.
In 2002 the Democrats controlled the Senate before the midterms ie the non Presidential party so a totally different scenario to the President's party holding both chambers of congress if the Democrats took the Senate.
In 2018 the Democrats took the House picking up 41 seats in the process and reversed complete GOP control of Congress before the midterms.
In 1982 Reagan saw the GOP lose a smaller 26 seats but then the Democrats already held the House beforehand so Reagan's party did not have complete control of Congress before the midterms so a different scenario
The Supreme Court has (a) tended to make political decisions 9-0, (b) not been that much of a friend of Trump this electoral cycle, and (c) is full of people with their eyes on the history books.
The 2018 House election went in one way and the Senate the other. Its entirely possible the same could happen in 2022 too. The 2022 House election will be House races last fought in 2020, the 2022 Senate election will be Senate races last fought in 2016.
If you can't understand the difference that is on you. The House is not the Senate.
The issue he has is that the number of ballots remaining is dropping fast. It was 130,000, when the lead was 20,000. It's now 15,000 with just 75,000 ballots remaining. Worse the remaining are largely provisional, so not all will count.
It's *possible* he pulls this out the hat, but he's like a guy who has to gets heads up 10 times in a row; just a single bad batch (or indeed a meaningful number of ballots being cast aside as the voters' postals had already been counted) and he's out.
57/43 as in 2008 gives the opportunity to be radical, not 50/50.
Biden 1.08
Trump 13
The Democrats would have complete control of the 3 branches of the Federal government if they took the Senate and there would inevitably be a GOP backlash in the 2022 midterms as there was in 1994 and 2010
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1325927912244191232?s=20
If you are a Trump Ultra, no one in the mass media is listening to you, you are being dismissed even by the once beloved Fox News. You still believe but, more importantly, you hate the other side and are getting increasingly stoked up.
What is more concerning is Trump is taking the bulk of the elected GOP reps with him right now. Is it a way of keeping the base warmed up until we get the Georgia Senate race done or is it more?
The danger is that its more, its building resentment, which is building trouble. Sure its 90%+ Trump will just walk out of the White House rather than be escorted but this building of resentment is going to see someone get killed.
I emailed someone in the US who used to work in the part of government that makes their business to understand trouble and asked what shes heard. Her former colleagues are reportedly genuinely concerned about the instability of the country in the short term. The hope is that it will stop on the runway before it takes off, we haven't seen big protests for example, but the worry is violence by small groups combined with Trump dismantling of whatever furniture of government he can is going to create more and more tension.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1325961114514038786?s=21
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html