Categories
This is starting to look like landslide territory. – politicalbetting.com
This is starting to look like landslide territory. – politicalbetting.com
Who voters think would do a better job of handling…The Supreme Court: 47% Biden / 39% TrumpHealth care: 52% Biden / 35% TrumpCoronavirus pandemic: 53% Biden / 34% TrumpRace relations: 53% Biden / 31% Trumphttps://t.co/p7OTuH22uX pic.twitter.com/pTicL6kS5C
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I'm really proud of that.
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1320336033591009280?s=20
The part of your analysis that I think is wrong is " ... others equally despise him, both Labour and Plaid voters."
He is certainly despised by the Plaid Cymru hierarchy, but most Plaid Cymru voters I know are impressed by him.
There is a campaign in Plaid Cymru not to stand in Cardiff West -- it may not work, but the fact that it exists show that he is not anathema to ordinary Plaid Cymru members, let alone voters.
Wasserman has also calculated what the national standing of Biden and Trump among key demographic groups, if it held across battleground states, would imply for the outcome. That calculation shows Biden, like Reagan 40 years ago, winning more than 400 electoral votes."
CNN.
Biden is heading for a big win and the markets are lagging the polling. It's an opportunity.
I note that New York congressional districts are gerrymandered as f*ck as well. They are all as bad as each other. The state of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_7th_congressional_district
I remain convinced Biden will do disproportionately better in the deep Red states than in the marginals but recent polling continues to look very positive for the challenger.
A Dallas Morning News poll has Biden up 48-45 in Texas
https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/oct2020-lv-codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll.pdf
With this and the Quinnipiac poll suggesting a Tie, I'm putting Texas back in the TCTC column on my master map.
That makes it 284-125 for Biden with 129 TCTC in the Electoral College.
Safer for Trump is South Dakota and it's a time since we had a poll from the state containing Mount Rushmore. Trump won the state by 30 in 2016 but a poll from Mason Dixon for the KELO station has Trump ahead 51-40
https://eu.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/25/argus-leader-kelo-poll-president-trump-joe-biden-south-dakota/6013387002/
I make that a 9.5% swing to the Democrats and fits in nicely with the point mentioned above. Recent polls have shown 7% swings in Kansas and Oklahoma and 11% in West Virginia.
I've bet on Biden nationally, obvs, and at many state levels including Florida and Texas. The latter remains a fantastic betting price (hat tip, Mike). There are some good EV share prices available if you're prepared to believe that Biden is going to win big. I'm also on Senate races where the Dems look certain to flip at least 3 states and probably 5 or 6.
https://twitter.com/WarOnDumb/status/1320146584697401344
Why do the US make voting so blooming difficult (don't answer I know the reasons).
TWS, nice to see you posting, I was just thinking the morning I had not seen you on for a while.
I bought myself a bottle of Rumbullion yesterday and as I sipped one last night I thought of your goodself and fact I had not seen you on for some time.
Brilliant Rum and it was 12 quid off a bottle at Morrison's at £28 and I thought you would be telling me some other supermarket that had it at much better price.
The 2008 Obama win was a Stompslide by the former measure but not by the latter (Obama won 53-46). That makes the last Stompslide in 1996 when Clinton won 379 EC votes and beat Dole by 8.5 points in the national vote.
Before that, both 1988 and 1992 qualified in terms of EC votes but not vote shares but both Reagan wins in 1980 and 1984 were Stompslides.
I'm absolutely confident the WNP will not be taking any list seats on South Wales Central or anywhere else. No way they will get the required votes in constituencies across the region. I strongly suspect that the majority of voters have not even heard of McEvoy's Welsh National Party, and the only candidate with any profile at all is Neil McEvoy.
It is a long & shitty time to be in government. Let's see.
Personally I was quite shocked because after looking at figures it seems to me that what labour are arguing is that a single mother of two school age children earning 28,000 a year should be subsiding free school meals for the children of an unemployed single mother of two identically aged children because some how she is poorer.
here is why I come to that conclusion before people call me callous
take home pay of single mother on 28k is 1890£
unemployed mother gets however
409.89 personal benefit
281.25 for the first child
235.83 for the second child
1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east)
100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Sorry if you cant feed and clothe yourself and 2 small children on 250£ a week after housing you are doing something wrong and more money is not going to make a difference. You need to be taught how to budget.
This omits child benefit as both receive it so it cancels out it also omits the extra expense the working mother might have with work such as the daily commute and the fact her kids dont get free school meals.
Look at why these children aren't being fed and fix that. A 15£ food voucher isn't going to help as the problem is the parent(s) not the money.
I can't help feeling this is one of those situations where the public think the unemployed are poorer than they are. The benefit seems perfectly adequate to me.
Source for figures
https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/what-youll-get
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 48% (+2)
Changes from 19th September.
YouGov Georgia
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 49% (+2)
Changes from 26th September.
YouGov North Carolina
Biden 51% (+3)
Trump 47% (+1)
Changes from 26th September.
https://twitter.com/BenNHWalker/status/1320354873322446848
First up, North Carolina. Bitzer has an updated post (http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2020/10/nc-early-votes-10-24.html). The Republicans have knocked another 2 point lead off the Democrats in early voting in terms of party registrations, which is becoming a daily occurrence. Even that probably overstates the Democrat lead because in rural counties (19% of votes so far), the numbers are showing the Democrats in the lead - great until you realise many of these are likely to be Democrat-registered but Republican-voting older voters. Black turnout is also trending down to below its share of the electorate and the "souls to the polls" Sunday drives are likely to be less effective because of CV.
Florida. The Democrats had a big lead in mail-ins but the IPEV vote is eating heavily into that with 10 days to go. Miami-Dade IPEV is actually equal (about) Democrats / Republicans. Democrats had over a 230K (I think) lead in FL in 2016 going into election day but still lost. The trend rates suggest that the Republicans will continue to eat significantly into the vote.
Nevada. Ralston reckons the Democrats need a 80K firewall in Clark and 54K overall to be confident. At the moment, it's around 65K in Clark although there is some mail in to come. However, the question is how many more mail-ins are there because the GOP is winning the daily IPEV in both Clark and Washoe.
Minnesota / New Hampshire: Trump is planning a big ad campaign and the Senate race is now voted a toss up in the former and he is doing a rally in the latter. A bit bizarre if you think these are no-hope states. He obviously doesn't/
Biden 55% (+4)
Trump 42% (-)
Changes from 23rd July.
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1320150365229273088
Biden 49.2%
Trump 49.2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
If the parents won't use the money they get which I hope you agree seems adequate the answer is perhaps to run a scheme where you remove some of the money and suppy a book of vouchers that the kids can have used in council approved outlets to pay for a meal for the child these could be handed directly to the child. Shovelling more money at the parents seems more like trying to douse a fire with petrol and rewarding their bad behaviour.
However that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be generous and bloody feed as many children as possible well during the middle of a global pandemic ffs.
They are children! We are throwing money at dodgy PPE suppliers and consultants left right and centre and yet you are quibbling over next to nothing, to feed children!
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/portugal-post-race-analysis-2020.html
This county went 50.5%/46% for Trump over Hillary.
Can't say offhand whether higher turnout here is good for Trump or Biden, although in general, you'd have to think that higher voting favours Biden.
Why You Should Join the Tory Party
Go from a flaky claims business boss to millionairess overnight. A firm that was set up by Baroness Mone has been awarded a £122 million contract to supply 25 million gowns the NHS – just 44 days after it was set up.
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1320099687999877123
Not sure how that won't end up with kids being fed better than today.
Some posts on here show some on here are totally isolated from a huge part of society, no doubt neither they nor any of the people they deal with were on free school meals and they certainly do not have friends who are genuinely suffering economically as they'd be far better informed about the reasons and would not post such nonsense they do so.
Think on the FSM discussion people should declare what % of their friends at school were on FSM and what % of families they know today have kids on FSM.
Would give a very interesting insight as to how badly dislocated those people are from this part of society.
FWIW I reckon about a third of the kids on my road are on FSM and a similar number of my friends at school 30 years ago were.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/election-states-biden-trump.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
And a great name to boot.
Honest question as I strongly suspect the answer is no.
They are the new Leeds.
My main hope for the night is that it becomes reasonably obvious that Trump has lost Florida fairly early. I don't really see how he wins without it. I mean, I know its mathematically possible, I just don't think it is at all likely.
TSE referred to castrati porn stars but didn’t once mention dockside hookers.