Categories
Options
The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer – politicalbetting.com
The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer – politicalbetting.com
I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
My bet is that this has not changed the narrative, but might marginally have helped Trump.
To toot my own horn, as predicted, Biden's frailty was exposed without Trump jumping into fill the gaps whenever Biden hesitated or lost his train of thought, and this also made Trump seem more presidential.
But I'd be surprised if this changed many minds. History suggests debates have little impact on voting patterns.
They had one remaining hope: a massive gaffe by Biden and / or senility. So, barring infection by covid, Biden is going to win the election. He will get more than 350 electoral college votes.
Biden was a bit of a mess on fossil fuels, and I think he got his phaseout dates mixed up, so there's a good news cycle there for the GOP if they can avoid distractions.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319497720244162560?s=20
Two of those three polls have Trump's share below 40%. If you believe, as I do, that they reflect how people are voting (because the debates no longer matter much) then there's a tasty little number on betfair.
You can get 10/1 that Trump polls below 40%.
I put it into the fun flutter camp and I've bet a small amount accordingly.
Nate Silver's group was 28% right, which was more pro Trump than any of the other groups giving probability predictions for the 2016 election.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1319521235257184256?s=19
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1319474905407107075?s=19
Every God dam American pundit has gone with "A more sombre, serious, presidential display" bullshit take.
What's that? The President of the United States didn't act like a complete fucking baby? And you want to give him credit for vaguely acting like a normal human being? Take a look at yourself.
I strongly suspect that debate polls will be underweight certain Trump favourable demographics.
A case of believing what you wish to.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1318975230119940103
The circumstances this time around are vastly, viscerally, different from 2016. The polls don't lie. They didn't in 2019 and they're not in 2020. But it's much more than that. The GOP have distanced themselves from their President. They know they've lost.
And lost big.
The American media is shameless and craven.
I want a fucking landslide, I do not want the media giving Trump training wheels to help him closer to the line.
Biden made a few gaffes but this is priced in and people aren’t going to be duped by one more normal performance by Trump as he’ll quickly return to his twitter meltdowns.
So the result was a score draw, but it felt like a big Trump win.
If that's the standard of rationale for betting slips then ...
I know it's hard to believe for people who aren't sharp enough to realise time stands still for no man, but you need to watch what is actually happening in America right now. Not what happened four years ago.
Have a good day everyone. Joe is.
And Good Morning to one and all.
It does raise the question of how to properly compare opinion polls with election outcomes.
Now, we know from the polls that is not enough for Trump to turn it round but it underlines the risk for Biden in relying solely on the message that Trump's an arse.
And even if some unspecified measures are put in place that will magically keep the vulnerable separate, how do you stop that becoming overwhelmed with people who just don't really want to get sick?
The "shield the vulnerable" mantra reminds me of communism... nice in theory but it doesn't work.
As a side note, I've noticed a LOT that people read something on Facebook or Twitter and get outraged. When I used to be on both platforms I was permanently of the opinion that the country was about to break out into insurrection because LOOK AT THIS CUTE CHILD HE DIED BECAUSE OF AUSTERITY/MUSLIMS/VACCINES/ISRAEL. The sad truth is, it's always a mix of the chronically angry, distillations of real things that happened that may or may not share the context you're talking about, liars, propagandists, and well-meaning idiots. And it's all wrapped up into a nice newsfeed that specifically designed to maximise your outrage, because that's what keeps you coming back for more. You see it in some of the people on here. They've become furious ideologues, certain of the righteousness of their cause and their cause alone. Then they find themselves on here, one of the many interfaces between their clan and another, and they go absolutely mad because "here are some filthy apostates who have been duped by the other clan, how can they be so stupidly partisan all the time?!"
Ok, so my side note ended up longer than my main point. Sorry about that. Just to tie it up, I'm not saying you're wrong about lockdowns, but nor am I saying you're right. But I have a sneaking suspicion that you think it's more clear cut than it really is, and one clue to that is this:
you replied to a post recommending we take better care when wielding rhetorical devices, and by the sixth paragraph you were talking about dead babies. That kind of escalation doesn't happen in conversations unless at least one of them is furiously certain about something that is so very clearly uncertain enough that they need to have a conversation about it.
Funnily enough, the main thing that seemed to trend on social media was Joe Biden's reference to Hitler.
https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1319079890407206912
"I had ruled him out. Now, I'm not so sure. Mr Trump won in this debate, maybe he can win in 12 days' time?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/us-presidential-debate-won-trump-biden/
(Telegraph)
And when I was a student pubs closed at 10pm. We just started earlier!
This sits nicely in the 60-64.999 band in BF`s "Trump Popular vote tally" market.
So I`ve had a few quid at 3.5.
https://twitter.com/jamesmelville/status/1319527747941814272?s=21
We have a weekly Asda delivery and our son or daughter pick up our medication from the chemist and leave it in our porch
Since March our surgery has moved to online triage and it has been a great success together with a ban on anyone calling direct at the surgery. When we have had to see either the doctor/nurse we wait in the car park in our car and the doctor/nurse calls us directly into their consulting room passing through the empty waiting areas
Here in Wales Drakeford has stopped supermarkets selling non essential food and terminal ill non covid elderly patients have to choose which child they want to nominate to be at their bedside in their final hours
This is morally bankrupt and of course banning the sale of non essenitial goods drives Amazon and online shopping demand at the further expense of local shopping
Drakeford insists closing down the whole of Wales is only for 17 days and is a one off event, but as we have been in the equivalent of tier 3 ourselves for the last month I expect Drakeford will return us to tier 3 again
He is experimenting with Wales and believe you me both here in Wales and the rest of the UK a moment is fast approaching when the cry will go out 'enough'
It is notable that Scotland has introduced tiering, notwithstanding 2 additional levels, confirming that even Sturgeon is not favour of a national shutdown
The problem is that "shielding the vulnerable" requires just those sort of measures. Cancer patients and pregnant women are in the vulnerable groups, and open visiting is the direct opposite of shielding.
Indeed even these visiting rules are too lax if the "herd immunity" enthusiasts of the Great Barrington Declaration get their way.
Thinking of the key, each confirms a prison
Only at nightfall, aetherial rumours
Revive for a moment a broken Coriolanus.
In fact now I think about it Trump's team have been the ones lacking almost anything policy wise, not even a white elephant policy like the wall.
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1319402003609624583?s=21
Using the same question, CBS had Biden winning the first debate by 48 to 41. This time it's 53 to 39.
So Biden's performance relative to Trump improved since last time, in the judgement of those watching that CBS polled. That seems pretty definitive to me.
And somehow having segregated and isolated surgeries and hospitals (as the vulnerable inevitably use these more than anyone, anyway - should the non-vulnerable simply give up using hospitals or surgeries for the duration)?
Unscrambling the egg has defeated everyone so far, which is why no country has successfully managed to pull off shielding the vulnerable without also shielding everyone else.
If we ignore the problem in frustration and handwave a bit, maybe it will just go away.
1.Non-essentials is a device to deter unnecessary shopping.
2. Your end of life visiting issues are an edict from the Westminster Government.
I can't say I am pleased at not working for two weeks, however if it allows me the opportunity to work unhindered for the following six weeks to eight weeks I will give it a shot.
IA Trump +0.3 GOP -1.0
GA Trump 0.0 GOP +2.6
NC Trump -2.3 GOP -2.9
MT Trump +10.2 GOP +3.0
ME Trump -12.1 GOP -3.0
KS Trump +10.6 GOP +4.9
SC Trump +7.9 GOP +5.2
AZ Trump -2.9 GOP -6.0
AL Trump +19.2 GOP +6.2
AK Trump +7.4 GOP +6.3
MI Trump -7.9 GOP -6.4
CO Trump -11.7 GOP -7.7
TX Trump +2.1 GOP +8.1
MS Trump +13.2 GOP +9.1
MN Trump -7.7 GOP -12.0
KY Trump +19.1 GOP +13.4
----
Mean Trump +2.8 GOP +1.2
I don't want this to be true, but Trump still looks like he is an electoral asset for the Republicans. I want American voters to judge him so badly that he drags the whole GOP down with him. But the numbers don't show that story.
Otherwise Republican Senate candidates should be outperforming Trump.
Partisans don't want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll. That's why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.
But remember: These are only the polls conservatives and Republicans were willing to put into the public sphere. There's good reason to believe it's worse for Trump in the numbers they're not releasing.
Indeed, one of the more interesting aspects of the internal polls so far put out by Republicans is how few of them there are. As I noted back in the summer, the number of internal polls each side releases publicly is usually a good indicator of how their side is doing. If one side is doing well, they're more likely to release internal polling than if they're doing poorly.
The bottom line is that there's really no reason to think that the Republicans have some secret polling putting Trump in a better position than the public polling does. The signs, in fact, point in the opposite direction.
2) Health and visiting is a Wales NHS decision
Small steps are needed before a Moonshot.
(1) If these polls are so poor, why release any of them? The campaigns are not under an obligation to do so;
(2) I might be wrong but I haven't seen any internal Democrat polling released so, by CNN's logic, Biden must be doing badly as well or, at least, not as well as the polls
Amazon will be even busier
I take the point to be that Reps are releasing polls where their candidate is clearly ahead - but comparing these with the same districts in 2016 reveal a falling vote share.
The current reporting standard is 28 days after diagnosis.
Ultimately that's where we are going I think, although I think the govt wants a saliva test rather than swab...
The reason the rule is absurd is because the whole situation is absurd, but if your choice is between absurdity and mass death, then you've clearly wasted the last seven months in failing to come up with a better alternative.