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Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Bi
Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads – politicalbetting.com
Trump recovering markedly and Biden on the decline in the White House race betting on @smarkets and @Betfair .Huge amounts are being gambled on what is the biggest political betting market ever. pic.twitter.com/mfa8fttlzn
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Even on polling day his fans will think he's winning. Then the results will come in. Just a shame there won't be that exit poll style moment when the scales fall from their eyes in a five second clip.
Time will tell.
*That something, specifically, being that LonelyMans is British.
And we found that out from someone in Chester who had merely heard the moans on local radio.
Possibly hyperbolic; possibly not.
As you sow you shall reap seem apposite
“ The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election,” said one Democratic operative.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/trump-victory-democrats-election-430013
While those who are gambling on a Biden win might make the case it now looks almost a certainty, the Democrats themselves (nor unreasonably) still express almost as much belief in the danger of Trump winning as does HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/mattrosswrites/status/1318167579987447808?s=20
I think I will try it again tomorrow.
One side is right about what no deal will do to import/export from 1st January. The people involved with import/export AND the civil service busy concreting over Kent and hiring portaloos and telling pharma companies to carry 6 weeks of disruption stock. Or Alok Sharma. So again, I think "fruitcakes" is a fair description.
It may be insulting to tell cluless zealots they are clueless. But it doesn't change the fact that they are clueless.
Wonder whether they conferred with Starmer before doing this?
Puts pressure on Sturgeon also, potentially clear water between Lab and SNP?
The depressing part is the discussion never seem to move on.
We just seem to fall back in telling each other to go fuck ourselves.
My point is a more constructive relationship from both sides would have been a positive thing both in the years leading up to the referendum and after it. I still remember the gleeful scorn on here by the pro eu amongst us when Lisbon was ratified without the referendum.
Many people (shout out to our Phil) say: "bring it on".
Is it any wonder that sensible people despair.
And oh from FPT when I pointed out how a large number of people was motivated to vote Brexit because of a dislike of foreigners? They were.
The Tier 3 restrictions are pretty clear - if a business has been ordered to close then don't go to it.
The businesses that have been ordered to close may vary marginally but you don't have many Scousers going to the gym because people from Lancashire are doing so out of confusion.
Either way I suspect the end result had little to do with immigration or anything else and had everything about the have nots voting in protest.
The downside is that instead of being treated better (and Boris has been given a great majority with which he could a lot to help the have nots) they are going to be on the rough end of the de-industrialisation of what's left of our industry as paperwork issues make exports impossible.
If you're going to make a mistake, you may as well make it a big one. At least that way the lesson is well learned.
And yes bring it on. Enough of the faux nonsense, we've rehashed everything enough already its time to JFDI and see where the chips land.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
If we've made a mistake we will learn from it. I'm not afraid of failure.
You can both like and admire foreigners and want controls on immigration at the same time.
Indeed, it might be to ensure safe continuation and consent for acceptance of the former that you see it as so important to ensure the latter.
The government are telling business to go far quicker in their brexit plans. OK then. From 1st January I will be managing a food brand made in Romania and imported into the UK. Our logistics partners will need to complete customs and standards paperwork with information I will need to provide. As things stand they do not know what paperwork they will need to complete. The system onto which they will have to register said paperwork doesn't even exist nevermind integrate into their own computer system. The customs and standards agents who will have to process said paperwork of the non existent computer system haven't been hired or trained. Even if we wanted to fast track our Brexit preparations we have no idea what to prepare for because the nature of a deal hasn't been decided and the requirements of either a deal or no deal with regards to processes rely on things that don't exist.
Yet the government says we are adopting an Afghanistan deal and that things will be marvellous on 1st January. And some people on here parrot the line and agree that things will be brilliant. So when everything stops because stuff can't transition the EU border as there's no paperwork and no system to manage the paperwork and no agents to inspect the paperwork, it won't be their fault or the fault of a government who has done Fuck All to prepare.
No, it will be my fault. I will - as you rightly point out - be told to go fuck myself.
I get why Republican Senators are suddenly desperate to distance themselves from Trump (something which strongly indicates how they think the race is going), but is this weak sauce really going to appeal to his voters !
Sen. Cornyn Is Latest to Try to Take Distance From Trump, Says He Disagrees “Privately”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/john-cornyn-private-disagreement-trump-marriage-spouse.html
... Cornyn said his relationship with Trump was “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well.”
In the meeting, Cornyn was asked if he and other members of the Republican Party didn’t regret failing to push Trump more on certain issues, but the Texas senator said there’s little that can be done to change the president’s ways and he says it’s more effective to disagree privately than publicly. “I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump. He is who he is,” Cornyn said. “You either love him or hate him, and there’s not much in between. What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”...
Any citation for that? Also any idea how many were over 22?
18-21 year olds vote for the first time every election but don't affect turnout, it is the over 22s voting for the first time that is more interesting.
I think that’s an extremely unlikely outcome. You can never put the genie back in the bottle.
Not "all" as @Philip_Thompson has confirmed, but for a large number.
Nobody in that position would ever say to an activist or journalist, "we're home and hosed, to be honest - take a fortnight off and we'll see you for the victory party". They'd inevitably downplay a fairly large and stable poll lead for fear of complacency amongst the activists and voters.
I mean they COULD mean it... but they could equally be playing an absolutely standard expectations game.
I think we’re already finding out why Theresa May’s deal was the right compromise.
I suspect it will take the destruction of whole industries in very short order for it to become obvious
Bear in mind that not all the working class use the flowery, nuanced and carefully caveated language that the professional middle classes do. Many use the unambiguous language of the shop floor and don’t call a spade a shovel when they’re feeling frustrated.
It doesn’t make them all bigots, and an experienced canvasser can tell the difference. It’s the difference between a Gillian Duffy to a Nick Griffin, for example.
Still more than I'd feel comfortable with, but under FPTP not too concerning unless they end up taking over a main party.
https://www.businessforscotland.com/49-of-english-voters-support-english-independence/
49 to 51
I don't want to hear any 'not so bad, is it?' arguments, or 'wrong type of Brexit', or 'bastard EU tucked us up'. It would be far better if the result left no room for any conclusion other than 'Hmmm, that wasn't too smart, was it'.
Then perhaps we could take a deep breath and start again.
I wouldn't be at all shocked if Trump held NC after everything, though I think Biden is rightly modest favourite there, but it hasn't been 'super-safe' for either side all year.
EDIT: I did smile at the quote in the article "Stops in Iowa and Georgia less than 20 days before an election can only mean one thing -- Trump's red wall is collapsing in on him." It's all Red Walls these days.
One the one hand you have the likes of Trump who takes no action (in fact, he deliberately encourages it). On the other hand you have the likes of Sturgeon who is quite forthright in distancing herself from that type of person. The two main Leave campaigns were both in between those end members, and not in the same space as one another. Vote Leave largely kept its head down -- an abbrogation of its duty, in my view -- whilst Leave.EU was nearly in the same space as Trump is, positively baiting foreigners, but with a more professional glass of plausible deniability.
I think it's important we distinguish the two, and say that there is a whole range of leave voters, from outright fascists to sensible liberally minded folk, through the don't-ask-don't-tell set in the middle.
One thing, though, that the BLM movement has taught us, though, is that it's not enough to be non-racist, you have to be anti-racist. I don't apply that to all and sundry, but people involved in political campaigns really do need to show a little more backbone fighting racists. They do exist, you have to tackle them, and "but I'm not racist" isn't enough for any spokesperson. It's MORE important than one party or another winning, and it's MORE important than being in or out of the EU.
Consistent with a comfortable victory nationwide, with Ohio, Florida, Texas and Georgia swing states but Biden already having the necessary ECVs.
(I think they're GOP - I can't get through to their website as the EU is blocked!)
The confusing part is that each local council area seems to be able to add to the regulations by nominating additional types of businesses to be closed down.
(A reminder: the Cobdens, Peels and Brights of Truss's Board of Trade are Marcus Fysh, Daniel Hannan and Tony Abott!)
Wash your hands and stay indoors (Thank you, Baked Potato)
Only go to grocery stores (Thank you, Baked Potato)
And if you want to have a better day
You must listen to what the Baked Potato say
Oh and a belated welcome.
Boris is clearly up to the job in that he's been doing it for a year.
The only people with any reason to publicly argue the Democrats are going to win in a landslide are a few gamblers like us.
Everyone else is saying it could easily go either way, and with the precedent of 2016 have at least some justification - which goes some distance to account for the polling/odds mismatch.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/workforce/nhs-staff-offered-snack-box-or-a-commemorative-badge-for-covid-efforts/7028649.article?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=newsfeed
Trump supporters! Fairsands of em!'
https://www.yes.cymru/english_independence_poll
- Republicans need their voters to think Trump is still in with a chance to ensure their supporters believe voting is worthwhile and so do
- Dems are genuinely jittery after 2016, but also don't want this election to be even close, so that Trump has no path to challenge either its legitimacy or to seek to invalidate certain ballot papers in order to steal the election or to refer it to the Supreme Court. Also, the Dems want to use the top of the ticket to win many very important state-level elections.
I tried to get loads of people, who up here en masse still have a visceral dislike of Thatcher, to understand my point of view that Brexit was/is basically driven by Thatcher's descendants, her heirs, but with increased ideological fervour. To no avail, cos forriners innit.
Anyway, too late now. I hope all the Leavers I know are happy with the situation post-1st Jan. If there's no deal, I think they will feel slightly aggrieved.
For example,
the changeover is managed without shortages of significant goods
the ongoing trade flow between the UK and EU is smooth, without substantial ongoing queues at ports
the UK's share of global trade increases
Anyone fancy drafting a set of criteria where we can all say "yeah, that was a mistake after all"?
If you look at covid patients in hospital (which is a better, although still not perfect comparison), there were 442 on Oct 16th, and 919 at peak. Doubled in 13 days.
Given the lag to hospitalizations, we could easily see another doubling before Friday's firebreaker has an impact.
It was a state Trump won by under 4% in 2016, the polling has been close for a long time, and the Senate race has also long been known to be a problem for the GOP. It was always going to be one of the states that could plausibly flip.
It is a sight to behold.