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Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems – politicalbettin

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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    To be honest the best thing Labour has probably done - maybe gone under the radar - is saying we won't be joining the EEA.

    Personally I support EEA but I can see why at this current time anything that can be linked to FOM is political suicide in the red wall.

    Perhaps in a couple of years EEA will be more appealing.

    Starmer has also ruled out No Deal though unlike Boris which means he will certainly have to concede to the EU on state aid and maybe fisheries too
    Fisheries don't matter, why is this an issue that is constantly brought up?
    It may not matter for Labour beyond a few target seats like Hastings and Rye and Truro and Falmouth, it does matter for the Tories now as most fishing ports have Tory MPs
    Why does something that's less than 1% of the UK's GDP matter to anyone?
    Would you apply the same logic to the Premier League? If the price of a deal was the abolition of the Premier League and that our clubs could never compete in UEFA again would you shrug and say "it is less than 1% of GDP"?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOLs on this one. Every President's policy since the early 90s have done exactly that. There are plenty of very good reasons to criticize Trump and his policies, but all of those are diluted by this nonesense. No other President would have done better - not Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama.
    Presumably he should have invaded? I mean, what could have gone wrong with that?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    If Covid continues to be a serious issue, there will surely have to come a point when next May's scheduled elections will have to be further postponed.

    Go all postal would be the answer
    You sound just like Hyufd. He wants to go postal on the SNP.
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    No cause for alarm regarding the bigger picture I'm sure.

    https://twitter.com/robmcd85/status/1314921035129643010?s=20
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOLs on this one. Every President's policy since the early 90s have done exactly that. There are plenty of very good reasons to criticize Trump and his policies, but all of those are diluted by this nonesense. No other President would have done better - not Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama.
    Presumably he should have invaded? I mean, what could have gone wrong with that?
    I’m more interested in why KJU needs such a very large nuclear missile, given they’re of comparatively limited practical value.

    I wonder if he’s compensating for a certain - lack in other areas.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOLs on this one. Every President's policy since the early 90s have done exactly that. There are plenty of very good reasons to criticize Trump and his policies, but all of those are diluted by this nonesense. No other President would have done better - not Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama.
    Presumably he should have invaded? I mean, what could have gone wrong with that?
    Do we have any reason to think those missiles can get off the ground?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    No cause for alarm regarding the bigger picture I'm sure.

    https://twitter.com/robmcd85/status/1314921035129643010?s=20

    There was a presidential candidate, forget his name, had a slogan ‘lock them up’ about somebody who was very silly and didn’t follow some fairly important laws but probably hadn’t done anything quite criminal.

    I wonder what that presidential candidate would have made of things like this.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,934

    No cause for alarm regarding the bigger picture I'm sure.

    https://twitter.com/robmcd85/status/1314921035129643010?s=20

    Sounds like a nice fella.
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    Bar and restaurant workers have dumped piles of leftover ice outside the Scottish Parliament in protest at being forced to close by Covid restrictions.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54491598
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    If Covid continues to be a serious issue, there will surely have to come a point when next May's scheduled elections will have to be further postponed.

    Go all postal would be the answer
    You sound just like Hyufd. He wants to go postal on the SNP.
    'radio' is the local term, though perhaps I am showing my age: it comes from Radio Rentals, a once widely distributed chain of shops in Scotland.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I promised to outline why I came out the fence on betting on Trump so here are the reasons.

    1. The VP debate numbers. The VP audience numbers smashed expectations - the second most watched VP debate since 1976 and up nearly 60% from 2016 even though TV viewing is significantly lower than 4 years ago. That tells me Americans are now heavily factoring into their choice of vote also their views on Pence and Harris.

    At this point, I will hear "Kamala won the debate according to the polls" but that is not the point. First, it raises the bar for the challengers because voters are now being asked to think about two potential presidential candidates rather than stick with the status quo. Secondly, there is the California issue, a state which is seen as the epitome of bad governance to many and from where there has been a large outflow to states such as AZ and NC (there is a third minor point, for conservatives, Harris' conduct in the Kavanaugh hearings will disqualify her);

    2. Voter registration / regression analysis. The GOP has out-registered the Democrats gap since 2016 in PA, MI and FL. The regression analysis from PA that have posted several times here shows there is a close correlation at county level between change in voter registration and voting patterns.

    What pushed me off the fence by Sean Trende at RCP, whom I like. I posted it yesterday but it was worth reading in full. It supports the view 2020 is likely to be similar to 2016 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/09/trumps_path_to_victory_with_a_nod_to_washington_state_144400.html);

    3. Nancy Pelosi. There was a lot of head-scratching about why NP brought up the 25th Amendment issue. Two things caught my attention. First was that her language re the need to use the 25th for Trump was circumspect and, second, she used the word bi-partisan. Now, NP is not a favourite of being bi-partisan and she presumably knows not many Republicans will break ranks to call for Trump to be cast out on the basis of the 25th. Therefore that seems a signal the issue is more with Biden. My feeling is that the Democrats know that Biden has serious issues, is likely to have to step down soon after a vote and are therefore floating the idea of a bi-partisan committee to smooth the transition under the aegis of concerns over Trump's behaviour. If - and it is speculation - that is right, then aligned with 1, it muddies the waters for whom Americans think they are voting.

    As a minor, possibly major, point, I would add her comments on the UK and a vaccine were slightly odd to say the least but they should raise the possibility that there may be some good news on a vaccine.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    If Covid continues to be a serious issue, there will surely have to come a point when next May's scheduled elections will have to be further postponed.

    Go all postal would be the answer
    You sound just like Hyufd. He wants to go postal on the SNP.
    'radio' is the local term, though perhaps I am showing my age: it comes from Radio Rentals, a once widely distributed chain of shops in Scotland.
    My father still gets his TV from Radio Rentals, or whatever they call themselves these days.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    Nigelb said:

    This is great.
    Though I expect machine supremacy isn’t very far off.

    https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/508714147119644674

    Astounding.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,151

    Off Topic

    Hodges is almost as big a nob as Owen Jones.
    Is he wrong on this issue?
    Difficult to answer fairly. The government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. There are no easy answers.

    Johnson wanted to be Prime Minister, and has spent his entire life backstabbing in order to enjoying the grace and favour accomodation, the servants and the chauffeur driven Jaguars, so I have little sympathy when he has to endure the endless criticism.

    And for whoever is off- topicing me- here's another for you!
    The irony is that Johnson isn't even enjoying the servants. They make him pay for all the meals they present to him.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,070
    justin124 said:

    If Covid continues to be a serious issue, there will surely have to come a point when next May's scheduled elections will have to be further postponed.

    There is enough time to implement an all-postal vote election.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOLs on this one. Every President's policy since the early 90s have done exactly that. There are plenty of very good reasons to criticize Trump and his policies, but all of those are diluted by this nonesense. No other President would have done better - not Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama.
    Presumably he should have invaded? I mean, what could have gone wrong with that?
    I’m more interested in why KJU needs such a very large nuclear missile, given they’re of comparatively limited practical value.

    I wonder if he’s compensating for a certain - lack in other areas.
    I presume you are not referring to his conventional forces.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,151

    DavidL said:

    Because the alternative is what?
    We are doing what we can. It’s not enough, it’s not “working” to the extent that deaths are going to increase, the economic consequences are catastrophic but there are no better choices. We just have to get through this.
    Good communication would be a start, unless you're a Tory fanboy you must acknowledge the communication has been utterly piss poor.
    Yep. Intergalactic levels of poor. Is there a single person in the UK* who understands the current rules as they apply in their locality?

    *(I am allowed an exception here for Nicola Sturgeon as she is planning to be on Mastermind with specialist subject of Covid regulations circa 2020-1.)


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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,934
    Betting post.
    Paddy Power are 5-1 Everton to win the PL without the Big Six. That seems quite generous given the first 10% of the season.
    Am considering a substantial nibble.
    Am I being overly optimistic as an avowed fan and letting what I want to happen colour my opinion of what will happen?
    Leicester and possibly Villa and Wolves are the threats, but I make it nearer 1 in 3 than a 1 in 6 chance.
    What am I missing?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Scott_xP said:
    "Liverpool City Regio" ?

    Is "regio" scouse for "region"?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Scott_xP said:
    Hurrah, North of Tyne mayor, all is forgiven.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,151

    Scott_xP said:
    "Liverpool City Regio" ?

    Is "regio" scouse for "region"?
    No doubt Sunak is making a mess of this.

    The lustre was bound to come off sooner rather than later. If he loses Cabinet debates over not locking down swathes of the country under the 'It's Not A National Lockdown' feint, then he should cough up the support.

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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited October 2020
    @dixiedean was shopping in the toon earlier today and it was much busier than I expected. Nightlife might be in the doldrums but daytime retail and hospitality looked reasonable to me.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LOLs on this one. Every President's policy since the early 90s have done exactly that. There are plenty of very good reasons to criticize Trump and his policies, but all of those are diluted by this nonesense. No other President would have done better - not Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama.
    Presumably he should have invaded? I mean, what could have gone wrong with that?
    I’m more interested in why KJU needs such a very large nuclear missile, given they’re of comparatively limited practical value.

    I wonder if he’s compensating for a certain - lack in other areas.
    I presume you are not referring to his conventional forces.
    Well, it might link to boots on the floor...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Isn't the point to vary restrictions based on the current situation?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is great.
    Though I expect machine supremacy isn’t very far off.

    https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/508714147119644674

    Astounding.
    Yes, a great watch, thanks for posting. The human realises the robot cannot be beaten by standard play and has to push the edge cases - skimming the net, hard bouncing the table - in order to beat the program.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    F1: surprised how well Verstappen did. Pre-race ramble will be up tomorrow but one thing I'll be checking will be his odds on the win.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    This thread has

    paid all its taxes, unlike Donald Trump

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    dixiedean said:

    Betting post.
    Paddy Power are 5-1 Everton to win the PL without the Big Six. That seems quite generous given the first 10% of the season.
    Am considering a substantial nibble.
    Am I being overly optimistic as an avowed fan and letting what I want to happen colour my opinion of what will happen?
    Leicester and possibly Villa and Wolves are the threats, but I make it nearer 1 in 3 than a 1 in 6 chance.
    What am I missing?

    There’s a thing about not betting on your own football team but that does seem a very good price.
This discussion has been closed.