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LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 6 in General
LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES – politicalbetting.com

Tonight's WH2020 betting from @Smarkets pic.twitter.com/a9NL4KlQ4C

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • E pluribus unum.
  • I kinda agree David, only shenanigans might stop a landslide/Biden victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    I kinda agree David, only shenanigans might stop a landslide/Biden victory.

    So definitely there won't be one then?
  • kle4 said:

    I kinda agree David, only shenanigans might stop a landslide/Biden victory.

    So definitely there won't be one then?
    Well if that 16% lead is anything accurate then all the chicanery from the GOP can't stop a landslide but if it a bit closer then yes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,053
    edited October 6
    'And so to America. The evidence is crystal clear. Biden has led Trump all year by winning margins.'


    Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    It's a fair point about overdoing the skepticism, though with the nature of evidence in this field one can never been certain.

    Spoke with a British Trump supporter today, quite the eye opener. Apparently most people think he will win it easily, all police forces are backing him, and five Democratic mayors are backing him, which is a significant sign.

    In fairness the middle one might well be right for all I know, and the last is opinion as to significance if it is true.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 85,321
    edited October 6
    algarkirk said:

    'And so to America. The evidence is crystal clear. Biden has led Trump all year by winning margins.'


    Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout

    But the polls largely narrowed during the 2017 campaign, something we've not seen in America, in fact the opposite.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    E pluribus unum.

    I sense insider information.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    algarkirk said:

    'And so to America. The evidence is crystal clear. Biden has led Trump all year by winning margins.'


    Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout

    By election day it was clear May was not as much of a shoe in as it appeared at the start, though would still expect to win. People only seem to remember how far ahead she was at the start - the Corbyn result may still have surprised at the end, but it was not as much of a surprise as it once would have seemed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    Indeed. And look at them, already talking about a tax 'raid'. No wonder we can never discuss finances seriously.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    algarkirk said:

    'And so to America. The evidence is crystal clear. Biden has led Trump all year by winning margins.'


    Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout

    No. Theresa May was a rotten campaigner. Corbyn was effective (in no small part because he was given space to be effective but that's by the by).

    In contrast, there can be no similar moments of discovery for the American electorate. The election proper has been going a month; the shadow boxing for at least a year. Why would minds change now when they haven't done so far - especially when the pro- and anti-Trump votes are so firm?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    Scott_xP said:
    I'd leave that sort of speculation to pundits and people on twitter, maintain some level of dignified distance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,355

    algarkirk said:

    'And so to America. The evidence is crystal clear. Biden has led Trump all year by winning margins.'


    Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout

    But the polls largely narrowed during the 2017 campaign, something we've not seen in America, in fact the opposite.

    That's Lib Dem graphing methodology - isn't he worried about be sued for plagiarism?
  • Great piece David and ordinarily I would agree with you. The GOP also probably agree. So if you can't win fairly and refuse to lose, then cheat.

    Manipulation of the Postal Service to stop ballots arriving on time
    Manipulation of ballot verification processes to stop ballots being valid
    Manipulation of polling stations to stop votes being cast at all
    Incitement of armed militia to "monitor" the vast queues by the remaining polling stations
    Legal challenge at local, state and federal level to stop votes being cast, votes being validated, votes being counted

    They will literally have to drag him from office. The landslide may happen. But it won't matter. This is about the survival of Gilead America - it's too important for democracy to get in its way.
  • Sod the effing US election. Eddie Van Halen is dead. :'(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    OnboardG1 said:



    Drakeford is the disgrace

    He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd

    I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
    This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
    This board is full of high earners, with a high iq, an interest in and knowledge of stats and political theory.
    .
    You're just making me feel like the odd one out with that list.
    Oh do stop it. You're a total brainbox. All agree.
    I was more upset about not being a high earner, to be honest, but thank you anyway :)
  • Sod the effing US election. Eddie Van Halen is dead. :'(

    I know, 2020 really is a turd of a year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    Yep. Trump gets a shellacking. It's on. It's always been on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505


    Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    Sod the effing US election. Eddie Van Halen is dead. :'(

    Did he do the solo on Beat It?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,806
    edited October 6
    Very much endorse Chris Mullin’s view. I recall that in 1997 I won the pool among a group of six of us because my prediction Labour majority of 70 was the closest to the actual result. Of course, Mullin’s seat, if not the first, was one of the first to declare and a c. 10% swing in a safe Labour seat gave the first indication of what was really on the cards - his beaming smile at the declaration told us as much.
  • Anyone have Eddie Van Halen on the dead pool?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,665

    Great piece David and ordinarily I would agree with you. The GOP also probably agree. So if you can't win fairly and refuse to lose, then cheat.

    Manipulation of the Postal Service to stop ballots arriving on time
    Manipulation of ballot verification processes to stop ballots being valid
    Manipulation of polling stations to stop votes being cast at all
    Incitement of armed militia to "monitor" the vast queues by the remaining polling stations
    Legal challenge at local, state and federal level to stop votes being cast, votes being validated, votes being counted

    They will literally have to drag him from office. The landslide may happen. But it won't matter. This is about the survival of Gilead America - it's too important for democracy to get in its way.

    With due respect, your laundry list is IMHO alarmist and unrealistic

    > Trumpsky's war against USPS totally ludicrous, as witnessed in his back-peddling re: Florida absentee voting; what the flap about postal voting is doing, is ensuring that millions of voters do NOT wait until the last minute before casting/returning their ballots - the BEST way to ensure their votes are received AND counted.

    > This concern is also way overblown. There will be some problems, but most will stem from surge in postal voting resulting in practical, logical challenges due to new systems AND greater volume of work - NOT manipulation.

    > In many localities concerns re: COVID have led to changes and reductions in polling; which have been mitigated by increased facilities & timeframes for early voting as well as by expanded postal voting.

    > The armed militia thread is IMHO is WAY overblown, but we shall see.

    > IF there are close results for President or other races, then yes will be plenty of legal action - which is the NORM for very close, contested elections, NOT the opening curtain for mass national chaos.

    In other words, calm yourselves. Or as my old buddy used to say, go soak yer overheated head.
  • Great piece David and ordinarily I would agree with you. The GOP also probably agree. So if you can't win fairly and refuse to lose, then cheat.

    Manipulation of the Postal Service to stop ballots arriving on time
    Manipulation of ballot verification processes to stop ballots being valid
    Manipulation of polling stations to stop votes being cast at all
    Incitement of armed militia to "monitor" the vast queues by the remaining polling stations
    Legal challenge at local, state and federal level to stop votes being cast, votes being validated, votes being counted

    They will literally have to drag him from office. The landslide may happen. But it won't matter. This is about the survival of Gilead America - it's too important for democracy to get in its way.

    With due respect, your laundry list is IMHO alarmist and unrealistic

    > Trumpsky's war against USPS totally ludicrous, as witnessed in his back-peddling re: Florida absentee voting; what the flap about postal voting is doing, is ensuring that millions of voters do NOT wait until the last minute before casting/returning their ballots - the BEST way to ensure their votes are received AND counted.

    > This concern is also way overblown. There will be some problems, but most will stem from surge in postal voting resulting in practical, logical challenges due to new systems AND greater volume of work - NOT manipulation.

    > In many localities concerns re: COVID have led to changes and reductions in polling; which have been mitigated by increased facilities & timeframes for early voting as well as by expanded postal voting.

    > The armed militia thread is IMHO is WAY overblown, but we shall see.

    > IF there are close results for President or other races, then yes will be plenty of legal action - which is the NORM for very close, contested elections, NOT the opening curtain for mass national chaos.

    In other words, calm yourselves. Or as my old buddy used to say, go soak yer overheated head.
    I will be delighted to be shown to be overblown. My list however was all based on things that have already happened.
  • Anyone have Eddie Van Halen on the dead pool?

    Throat cancer. Not Covid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    edited October 6

    Anyone have Eddie Van Halen on the dead pool?

    Does anything other than Coronavirus count? Although I suppose the Big C. can count for more than just...well the Big C. these days.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 183
    It’s not over till it’s over ! A lot can still happen in the next few weeks but with 4 million people already having voted and lots of new states starting early in person voting then with each day Trumps chances continue to fall . The polls will now be including increasing amounts of votes already cast .
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049
    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over ! A lot can still happen in the next few weeks but with 4 million people already having voted and lots of new states starting early in person voting then with each day Trumps chances continue to fall . The polls will now be including increasing amounts of votes already cast .

    The votes already cast will make minimal difference. Almost no-one votes this early unless they were never going to change their minds.

    The only possible difference might be if they intended to vote a particular way on Nov 3 and then found that for some reason they couldn't.

    But the few undecided voters that there are will surely be waiting, for now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964



    Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
    If Trump carries on like this, he won't just lose, it will be like the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    The government has dropped the vote on the 10pm closing time and now MPs won't get a vote on it. This is what you have allowed to happen, Starmer. By letting the government to renew the bill with oversight at their gift we'll never get any votes on measures the Whips office doesn't have the numbers. It's ridiculous.
  • MaxPB said:

    The government has dropped the vote on the 10pm closing time and now MPs won't get a vote on it. This is what you have allowed to happen, Starmer. By letting the government to renew the bill with oversight at their gift we'll never get any votes on measures the Whips office doesn't have the numbers. It's ridiculous.

    I thought the vote had happened, and the Tory rebels were all fart and no follow through?

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    This week's VP debate (Thursday 2am BST; Wednesday night for our American readers) between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris is the next potential black swan event (betting without Trump's tweets, of course).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Major move in the world of public health...


    "The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. "

    As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

    https://gbdeclaration.org/

    Gupta, Levitt, Kulldorf et al.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505



    Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
    If Trump carries on like this, he won't just lose, it will be like the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu.
    I f*cking hope so.

    I wasn't going to stay up all night as I'm getting on a bit and when I did it four years ago I felt unwell for two solid days afterwards.

    But...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    The government has dropped the vote on the 10pm closing time and now MPs won't get a vote on it. This is what you have allowed to happen, Starmer. By letting the government to renew the bill with oversight at their gift we'll never get any votes on measures the Whips office doesn't have the numbers. It's ridiculous.

    I thought the vote had happened, and the Tory rebels were all fart and no follow through?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/06/boris-johnson-rule-6-vote-10pm-curfew-brexit-news-latest/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    FPT on Rishi Sunak. He looks the part; he is head and shoulders above his Cabinet colleagues; he does, however, have a surprisingly high-pitched voice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    FPT on Rishi as the most left-wing Cabinet member. No, that is probably Boris himself, who seems to have pinched another Labour policy, or if you prefer, shot another Labour fox, just this week. Unfortunately I cannot remember quite what it was!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The government has dropped the vote on the 10pm closing time and now MPs won't get a vote on it. This is what you have allowed to happen, Starmer. By letting the government to renew the bill with oversight at their gift we'll never get any votes on measures the Whips office doesn't have the numbers. It's ridiculous.

    I thought the vote had happened, and the Tory rebels were all fart and no follow through?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/06/boris-johnson-rule-6-vote-10pm-curfew-brexit-news-latest/
    Thanks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,355
    Some asked about error bars on the ONS data - so I reworked the graph for estimated infections

    Note that this is for England only

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,639
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Yes. It is a peculiar feature of the sparsely populated desert States that they are some of the most urban in the US.
    Consisting, as they do of 1 or 2 metropolises and almost nowt else.
    Nevada is another.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,049

    This week's VP debate (Thursday 2am BST; Wednesday night for our American readers) between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris is the next potential black swan event (betting without Trump's tweets, of course).

    Vice Presidential debates make no difference. Everyone remembers Quayle getting monstered. Bush still won by a bigger landslide than anyone has managed since.

    Granted that they matter a bit more this time but the divisiveness of Trump overshadows all else.


  • Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
    If Trump carries on like this, he won't just lose, it will be like the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu.
    I f*cking hope so.

    I wasn't going to stay up all night as I'm getting on a bit and when I did it four years ago I felt unwell for two solid days afterwards.

    But...
    Ah you need to plan your week.

    Early night Sunday.

    Work on Monday, go to bed at 8pm.

    Wake later than usual on Tuesday, say 9am, go to bed at 3.30pm, set alarm for 8.30pm, and then you call pull an all nighter without feeling it for the rest of the week.

    Oh and take Wednesday off from work.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    rcs1000 said:
    Terrifying.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,336

    Off topic from Trump's deserved beating.

    Am I the only one to be surprised that the Nobel Physics Prize is finally awarded for black holes -- shortly after the death of Hawking -- and to Hawking's early collaborator ?

    I mean, it really looks as if they had been waiting for Hawking to die.
  • To be honest Biden could do with bad/tightening polls.

    His campaign doesn't need its voters to get complacent about voting.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,446
    Evening again all :)

    On topic, IF the CNN poll is anywhere near accurate, it will be the biggest defeat suffered by an incumbent President since Hoover lost to FDR in 1932. Reagan beat Carter by 10 in 1980.

    I'm not convinced and one or two slight warning signs in some of the State polls this evening with an Arizona poll putting Biden up by just one but clear leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I'm not wholly convinced about Nevada and a clear Trump lead in Maine CD2 suggests that one might be in the red camp still.

    The 10-point lead suggested by Survey USA fits in with a consistent 4% swing in even the red states from Trump to Biden.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    I once again caution that I think there is a temporary "fucking idiot" effect to the polling caused by Trump corona-ing it up.

    Even if his polling doesn't recover people who are embarrassed by his antics will still vote for him even as they are telling pollsters don't know just now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Yes. It is a peculiar feature of the sparsely populated desert States that they are some of the most urban in the US.
    Consisting, as they do of 1 or 2 metropolises and almost nowt else.
    Nevada is another.
    Maine is the least urbanised state.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    Alistair said:

    I once again caution that I think there is a temporary "fucking idiot" effect to the polling caused by Trump corona-ing it up.

    Even if his polling doesn't recover people who are embarrassed by his antics will still vote for him even as they are telling pollsters don't know just now.

    The final result of a solid win for Biden +7 will be disappointing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Yes. It is a peculiar feature of the sparsely populated desert States that they are some of the most urban in the US.
    Consisting, as they do of 1 or 2 metropolises and almost nowt else.
    Nevada is another.
    Maine is the least urbanised state.
    From what I could see from the top of a mountain there, it’s all trees
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,790
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Yes. It is a peculiar feature of the sparsely populated desert States that they are some of the most urban in the US.
    Consisting, as they do of 1 or 2 metropolises and almost nowt else.
    Nevada is another.
    Applies to Australia too.
  • Keir vs Rishi, battle of the most boring!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Thank you, I stand corrected.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    Great speech right now from Biden. Different gravy to the baboon. Will win big. Cannot see another outcome.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Tucson Urban pop 843,168
    Density 2,279.12/sq mi
    Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
    Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi

    Arizona Pop 7.279 million

    61.4% of state


    1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
    New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]

    55.9% of state

    Thank you, I stand corrected.
    No worries. New Mexico will continue to be solid Dem but Arizona is very urbanised (I don't doubt the rural parts are very pro Trump).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615


    Off topic from Trump's deserved beating.

    Am I the only one to be surprised that the Nobel Physics Prize is finally awarded for black holes -- shortly after the death of Hawking -- and to Hawking's early collaborator ?

    I mean, it really looks as if they had been waiting for Hawking to die.

    Nobel Prizes are often awarded so long after the work, it is a surprise any of them are still alive. Penrose is 89, for example. This is not helped by decades passing between theory and experimental or observational proof.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    Trump how has a huge risk premium

    Trump to win, back at 3.05
    Rep to win, lay at 2.98
  • ladupnorthladupnorth Posts: 93

    Keir vs Rishi, battle of the most boring!

    I see your hero has abstained again on some key votes at Westminster. Does he have view on anything, or does just criticise the government with the benefit of hindsight.
  • Keir vs Rishi, battle of the most boring!

    I see your hero has abstained again on some key votes at Westminster. Does he have view on anything, or does just criticise the government with the benefit of hindsight.
    Presumably he should have voted against in your mind
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    Alistair said:

    Trump how has a huge risk premium

    Trump to win, back at 3.05
    Rep to win, lay at 2.98

    I'd urge everyone to use Betdaq, only 2% commission even for big hitters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    I am DavidL and I approve this message.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,790
    On Topic.

    Last Wednesday was the point where Trump had to start hauling in his defecit. Biden had a clear but not unsurmountable lead. The debate was in Tuesday night. The test result and hospitalisation of Trump put any interpretation of poll results on hold, because who knos how that would change things. Today it seems as if Biden's polling lead has widened, *and* Trump has 7 days less to haul in an even larger defecit compared to going in to the debate. It is now too late. I cannot see Trump getting back to a 3%-point lead unless something totally chaotic happens in the next couple of weeks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Keir vs Rishi, battle of the most boring!

    I see your hero has abstained again on some key votes at Westminster. Does he have view on anything, or does just criticise the government with the benefit of hindsight.
    Presumably he should have voted against in your mind
    Or for.

    Does he literally have no opinion on this? Is he incapable of getting off the fence?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    edited October 6

    To be honest Biden could do with bad/tightening polls.

    His campaign doesn't need its voters to get complacent about voting.

    You should checkout the SurveyUSA poll from earlier.

    Some fascinating crossbreaks and questions.

    Guess what the 2nd most important issue in the election is for respondents losing out by 1 point to the economy


    Defeating Donald Trump


    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Pulpstar said:
    So lockdown is failing. We need another strategy.

    Hello Sweden.

    In Sweden the antibody % is half in older people compared to working age. In Spain (and presumably UK) they figures are equal. Younger people have been allowed to build up immunity by getting on with their lives, albeit with some restrictions such as no standing at the bar.

    See Unherd's latest lockdown interview.

    Maybe it wouldn't work in UK because we don't obey common sense rules like the Swedes, but we should be discussing it more widely.
  • Alistair said:

    To be honest Biden could do with bad/tightening polls.

    His campaign doesn't need its voters to get complacent about voting.

    You should checkout the SurveyUSA poll from earlier.

    Some fascinating crossbreaks and questions.

    Guess what the 2nd most important issue in the election is for respondents losing out by 1 point to the economy


    Defeating Donald Trump


    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf
    Cheers.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,336


    Off topic from Trump's deserved beating.

    Am I the only one to be surprised that the Nobel Physics Prize is finally awarded for black holes -- shortly after the death of Hawking -- and to Hawking's early collaborator ?

    I mean, it really looks as if they had been waiting for Hawking to die.

    Nobel Prizes are often awarded so long after the work, it is a surprise any of them are still alive. Penrose is 89, for example. This is not helped by decades passing between theory and experimental or observational proof.
    But, the experimental proof of the black hole at the centre of the Milky Way is at least ten years old.

    They could have awarded a Nobel Prize for black holes anytime over the previous decade. That is what is a bit peculiar.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 492
    I suspect being a branded a one-term loser will do Trump's health more harm than Covid-19 will.

    What happens after a Biden landslide though? Will Trump's supporters simply refuse to believe the result and foster another "stabbed in the back" myth or will the spell finally be broken? Does the GOP establishment take back control of the party or does Trumpism simply regroup under a more competent leader?

    Simply not being Trump will only get Biden so far. What happens when the realisation dawns that America's problems haven't gone away and the country is as divided as ever? Will his health hold up for four years? I expect once the honeymoon period ends AOC will turn on the Democratic establishment pretty quickly.
  • ladupnorthladupnorth Posts: 93

    Keir vs Rishi, battle of the most boring!

    I see your hero has abstained again on some key votes at Westminster. Does he have view on anything, or does just criticise the government with the benefit of hindsight.
    Presumably he should have voted against in your mind
    He should express a view on matters of real significance in the battle against Covid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733

    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over ! A lot can still happen in the next few weeks but with 4 million people already having voted and lots of new states starting early in person voting then with each day Trumps chances continue to fall . The polls will now be including increasing amounts of votes already cast .

    The votes already cast will make minimal difference. Almost no-one votes this early unless they were never going to change their minds.

    The only possible difference might be if they intended to vote a particular way on Nov 3 and then found that for some reason they couldn't.

    But the few undecided voters that there are will surely be waiting, for now.
    Funny that the same clear point is one people struggle with in UK elections. Postal voters tend not to be floating voters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    edited October 6
    Trump is going the full scorched earth isn't he?

    The transition period doesn't bear thinking about.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733



    Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
    If Trump carries on like this, he won't just lose, it will be like the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu.
    A scene where the scales fall from a crowd of his base, so they start heckling and jeering mid speech and Trump has to leave from a roof by helicopter would be worth watching, for sure
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Spreadex are a bit crap, they still haven't reopened their Trump EV market.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    dodrade said:

    I suspect being a branded a one-term loser will do Trump's health more harm than Covid-19 will.

    Being voted out of office won't scar his lungs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Trump how has a huge risk premium

    Trump to win, back at 3.05
    Rep to win, lay at 2.98

    I'd urge everyone to use Betdaq, only 2% commission even for big hitters.
    Betfair also has 2% commission for those willing to forego some bonuses. Check your rate (and change it if necessary) at:
    My Account > My Betfair Account > Promotions & Rewards > My Betfair Rewards.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Foxy said:

    Trump is going the full scorched earth isn't he?

    The transition period doesn't bear thinking about.

    Yeh, I've been fretting about that. But it's possible that he will find no one will actually carry out his bonkers orders and many or even most of his aides will be exiting like rats from a plague ship (which funnily enough it already is).
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