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LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES – politicalbetting.com
LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES – politicalbetting.com
Tonight's WH2020 betting from @Smarkets pic.twitter.com/a9NL4KlQ4C
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Tonight's WH2020 betting from @Smarkets pic.twitter.com/a9NL4KlQ4C
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Just like TM was going to win a majority of squillions in 2017. personally I still think Trump is in with a shout
Spoke with a British Trump supporter today, quite the eye opener. Apparently most people think he will win it easily, all police forces are backing him, and five Democratic mayors are backing him, which is a significant sign.
In fairness the middle one might well be right for all I know, and the last is opinion as to significance if it is true.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1313562547375792129
In contrast, there can be no similar moments of discovery for the American electorate. The election proper has been going a month; the shadow boxing for at least a year. Why would minds change now when they haven't done so far - especially when the pro- and anti-Trump votes are so firm?
Manipulation of the Postal Service to stop ballots arriving on time
Manipulation of ballot verification processes to stop ballots being valid
Manipulation of polling stations to stop votes being cast at all
Incitement of armed militia to "monitor" the vast queues by the remaining polling stations
Legal challenge at local, state and federal level to stop votes being cast, votes being validated, votes being counted
They will literally have to drag him from office. The landslide may happen. But it won't matter. This is about the survival of
GileadAmerica - it's too important for democracy to get in its way.Keep it coming Donald. You are doing great under these new meds.
https://twitter.com/Adrian_Hilton/status/1313560001269514241
> Trumpsky's war against USPS totally ludicrous, as witnessed in his back-peddling re: Florida absentee voting; what the flap about postal voting is doing, is ensuring that millions of voters do NOT wait until the last minute before casting/returning their ballots - the BEST way to ensure their votes are received AND counted.
> This concern is also way overblown. There will be some problems, but most will stem from surge in postal voting resulting in practical, logical challenges due to new systems AND greater volume of work - NOT manipulation.
> In many localities concerns re: COVID have led to changes and reductions in polling; which have been mitigated by increased facilities & timeframes for early voting as well as by expanded postal voting.
> The armed militia thread is IMHO is WAY overblown, but we shall see.
> IF there are close results for President or other races, then yes will be plenty of legal action - which is the NORM for very close, contested elections, NOT the opening curtain for mass national chaos.
In other words, calm yourselves. Or as my old buddy used to say, go soak yer overheated head.
The only possible difference might be if they intended to vote a particular way on Nov 3 and then found that for some reason they couldn't.
But the few undecided voters that there are will surely be waiting, for now.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1313534871013335040
"The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. "
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
https://gbdeclaration.org/
Gupta, Levitt, Kulldorf et al.
I wasn't going to stay up all night as I'm getting on a bit and when I did it four years ago I felt unwell for two solid days afterwards.
But...
Tucson Urban pop 843,168
Density 2,279.12/sq mi
Phoenix urban pop 3,629,114
Urban density 3,165.2/sq mi
Arizona Pop 7.279 million
61.4% of state
1,171,991 (Albuquerque–Santa Fe–Las Vegas CSA metro area)
New Mexico Pop 2.097 m [44.4/sq mi]
55.9% of state
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/6/21504019/internet-enabled-male-chastity-cage-cellmate-qiui-security-flaw-remotely-locked
Note that this is for England only
Consisting, as they do of 1 or 2 metropolises and almost nowt else.
Nevada is another.
Granted that they matter a bit more this time but the divisiveness of Trump overshadows all else.
Early night Sunday.
Work on Monday, go to bed at 8pm.
Wake later than usual on Tuesday, say 9am, go to bed at 3.30pm, set alarm for 8.30pm, and then you call pull an all nighter without feeling it for the rest of the week.
Oh and take Wednesday off from work.
Off topic from Trump's deserved beating.
Am I the only one to be surprised that the Nobel Physics Prize is finally awarded for black holes -- shortly after the death of Hawking -- and to Hawking's early collaborator ?
I mean, it really looks as if they had been waiting for Hawking to die.
His campaign doesn't need its voters to get complacent about voting.
On topic, IF the CNN poll is anywhere near accurate, it will be the biggest defeat suffered by an incumbent President since Hoover lost to FDR in 1932. Reagan beat Carter by 10 in 1980.
I'm not convinced and one or two slight warning signs in some of the State polls this evening with an Arizona poll putting Biden up by just one but clear leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I'm not wholly convinced about Nevada and a clear Trump lead in Maine CD2 suggests that one might be in the red camp still.
The 10-point lead suggested by Survey USA fits in with a consistent 4% swing in even the red states from Trump to Biden.
Even if his polling doesn't recover people who are embarrassed by his antics will still vote for him even as they are telling pollsters don't know just now.
Trump to win, back at 3.05
Rep to win, lay at 2.98
Last Wednesday was the point where Trump had to start hauling in his defecit. Biden had a clear but not unsurmountable lead. The debate was in Tuesday night. The test result and hospitalisation of Trump put any interpretation of poll results on hold, because who knos how that would change things. Today it seems as if Biden's polling lead has widened, *and* Trump has 7 days less to haul in an even larger defecit compared to going in to the debate. It is now too late. I cannot see Trump getting back to a 3%-point lead unless something totally chaotic happens in the next couple of weeks.
Does he literally have no opinion on this? Is he incapable of getting off the fence?
https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1313542640391139329
Some fascinating crossbreaks and questions.
Guess what the 2nd most important issue in the election is for respondents losing out by 1 point to the economy
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf
Hello Sweden.
In Sweden the antibody % is half in older people compared to working age. In Spain (and presumably UK) they figures are equal. Younger people have been allowed to build up immunity by getting on with their lives, albeit with some restrictions such as no standing at the bar.
See Unherd's latest lockdown interview.
Maybe it wouldn't work in UK because we don't obey common sense rules like the Swedes, but we should be discussing it more widely.
They could have awarded a Nobel Prize for black holes anytime over the previous decade. That is what is a bit peculiar.
What happens after a Biden landslide though? Will Trump's supporters simply refuse to believe the result and foster another "stabbed in the back" myth or will the spell finally be broken? Does the GOP establishment take back control of the party or does Trumpism simply regroup under a more competent leader?
Simply not being Trump will only get Biden so far. What happens when the realisation dawns that America's problems haven't gone away and the country is as divided as ever? Will his health hold up for four years? I expect once the honeymoon period ends AOC will turn on the Democratic establishment pretty quickly.
The transition period doesn't bear thinking about.
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