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The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the
The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the bigger the margin the better – politicalbetting.com
Good debate multi-shot from CNN pic.twitter.com/FS7BAmBWPS
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I agree with David Frum.
No you don't.
Perhaps you should consider giving Tegnell another call?
That said, some consistency from one end of England to the other would be helpful, at least.
His focus group vid has had 1m views in six hours.
Luntz thinks it was so bad it will put people off voting. Which is exactly what Trump wanted. Job done.
But Biden lost more, namely the claim to a higher ground. Go to 3:23 and listen to what is being said.
And Quinnipac in GA slightly against all the other GA polls.
But go with them if you want....
Then the Merseyside derby will be just like the 80s with Liverpool and Everton fighting it out at the top of the table.
What a derby that will be.
And have a good night's rest
Good night folks
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1311420474660925444?s=09
Wiring up the candidates to an electrical supply with shocks for interruptions
Trap door directly underneath both stages for the worst offences?
"It’s no secret that the ruling class in America despises the country class. If you’re one of those people who don’t live in coastal cities and subscribe to the same worldview as the elite aspirants hoping for a job at a billionaire-backed NGO or an internship that might lead to a job at McKinsey then you’re a deplorable, a CHUD, and definitely racist and whatever bad things are happening to you, your family, and your inland town are your just deserts.
One of Trump’s main functions and biggest appeals is that he exposes the occupational elites that are credentialed but not expert in much of anything. Everyone knows it. Imposter syndrome is rampant. And Trump preys on their insecurities which is what provokes such outrageous reactions from his enemies. But a lot of Americans who live in interior America and get unglamorous jobs at slowly declining wages, raise their families want nothing more than to be left alone by the credentialed but unaccomplished strivers who hate them. For those people, Trump is their champion."
And Good Night everyone
This week's Trafalgar MI poll is on 538 (Biden +2).
If it was Johnson Philip would find a way to argue it was ok
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
Yesterday I reacted to a Trump tweet posted on here, praising Biden's debating prowess - only later did I spot that the tweet was from 2012.
Rasmussen's polling is misfiring...
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep30
Or maybe it was Starmer taking the photo - they all live in Islington after all?
He is having dinner at his home. For Christ's sake, give the man some slack.
This is an interesting thread with links to interesting articles:
https://twitter.com/TEGNicholas/status/1311282961581473793
Happy days!
In fact, I don't think we're nearly so far down the Culture Wars rabbit hole (the scale of America's racial divisions and the baleful influence of the religious right aren't reflected here,) but you can see where the idea comes from. If one had data from all Parliamentary constituencies on just four metrics - the proportion of non-white voters, average age of the electorate, the local median household income and presence or absence of a university - then it oughtn't to be too difficult to construct a formula that could be used to predict electoral outcomes with a fair degree of accuracy.
If you make the following assumptions:
i) All those who vote in a primary then vote for that party
ii) All remaining GOP vote GOP, all remaining Dems vote Dem
iii) 50-50 split on remaining Una -
gives a 72-28 absentee split to the Dems (Thus far)
I think the debate tended to reinforce that view rather than the one you quote.
In fact, I've posted similar things myself.
However, the moment President Trump calls into question the legitimacy of the electoral system, and refuses to rule out a peaceful transfer of power, then - as far as I'm concerned - he has overstepped the mark.
But he's gone beyond that. He's called for people to join his army to police the election, rather than tasking the FEC with ensuring that the rules are followed. And that's resulted in scenes like this one, in Virginia.
I was no Obama fan. As far as I'm concerned, he did very little in eight years in the White House. But Obama/Biden did not weaken the foundations of American democracy. I had no doubt that if Romney had won the election, then Obama and Biden would have tootled off out the White House.
That there should even be any doubt with Trump should concern anyone who cares about America.
Working class 2-1 Labour Tory.
Middle and above 9-1 Tory Labour.
Approximately.
Avoid RCP - it’s a shambolic operation. It misses polls and those it does accommodate it frequently accommodates late.
I suspect they are short of cash. 538 is quicker off the mark. They seem to add polls before office hours Eastern Time, which is impressive.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1311417822988431360?s=19
I'm a bit baffled by all the faux outrage, it's not as if Trump suddenly acted out of character. The House of Commons has had similarly bad tempered debates without everyone proclaiming the death of democracy.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/
Basically, very little changed, except Trump's favourables got a tiny bit worse at the margin.
https://www.ncdemography.org/2020/08/13/who-are-north-carolinas-7-million-registered-voters/
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1311327243986243585?s=20
In any case I have never been a Trump supporter, I have always said I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and for Biden now if I were American but Republican for Congress.
I am not a Trump supporter like Mr Ed, though that is a view he is entitled to, I have just said and remain of the view Trump can still win even if the odds favour Biden
I can only assume either that the French are sufficiently determined to be rid of the problem themselves that they're invulnerable to bribery; or that the bribes that the UK Government have offered them have been deemed insufficient; or that the Government has been too daft to offer the French Government cash and/or other sweeteners in the first place.
Leaving aside the moral considerations, I'm not sure of the practicalities of effectively capturing the boat people and sticking them all back on larger boats - but prison hulks do at least have the benefit of not having to transport those aboard many thousands of miles to a remote volcanic rock in the South Atlantic.
https://twitter.com/psychlyst1/status/1311434375918051328
It is, and always was utter bollocks.
Farage did but he is a twunt and should be ignored.
Hence my careful use of the word "implied".
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/01/more-than-third-uk-employers-planning-make-staff-redundant-job-losses
Still. An opportunity to live it large on UC.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/30/politics/2020-election-models-trump-odds-biden/index.html
But 2016 did happen. And the models were wrong.
On November 8, 2016 (Election Day), the 538 model gave Trump a 28.4% chance of winning.
Just on his way to a dinner party no doubt.
1) October, 2016: See the models showing a 25% probability, write articles as if this means "basically impossible"
2) November, 2016: Say the models were wrong and declare data journalism dead
1) October, 2020: See the models showing a 25% probability, write articles as if this means "basically impossible"
A few days back I noted this story about Wisconsin ballots :
https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/1310278465325641728
Judges were going to stop the ballots being counted !
The MAGAs were very excited ...
https://twitter.com/waltrines/status/1310331062476824579
Today the 7th Circuit with *checks notes* 5 Reagen, 1 Bush-41, 1 Bush-43, 4 Trump, 1 Clinton and 1 Obama judge issued this ruling
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1311083637396434946
“Neither group contends that the new deadlines established by the district court would violate the constitutional rights of any of their members,” the appeals court said.
Sounds like the sort of judges and reasoning that might appeal to a certain Gorsuch should it go any higher...
Strand of DNA inherited by modern humans is linked to likelihood of falling severely ill"
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/30/neanderthal-genes-increase-risk-of-serious-covid-19-study-claims