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SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited December 2013 in General
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  • I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon in this electoral cycle.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    The only poll which matters is the result after 10pm on GE day 2015
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    The only poll which matters is the result after 10pm on GE day 2015

    In that case, see you then! :)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013

    The only poll which matters is the result after 10pm on GE day 2015

    And there won't be a single Tory who is dissatisfied with the progress the party has made in the polls this year.

    As they say: "perfectly placed at the tutn four lengths behind the frontrunner and not yet off the bridle".

  • There's been, I think, three tied polls, which is near as dammit a Tory lead.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Normal service will be resumed in 2014....
  • dr_spyn said:
    The artist fails to capture the orange blast of his sitter.
  • SeanT, FPT, said:

    "On each half hour trip I positively EXPECT there to be two or three unnerving encounters with a cyclist - by which I mean a cyclist acting dangerously, not giving me room to overtake on a narrow road"

    If the road is narrow there isn't room to overtake, unless the cyclist takes their bicycle onto the pavement. Rule 163 of the Highway Code:

    "give motorcyclists, cyclists and horse riders at least as much room as you 
    would when overtaking a car (see Rules 211-215)"


    They even have a photo to illustrate. It's not the job of the cyclist to get out of the way of a car driver behind them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AveryLP said:

    The only poll which matters is the result after 10pm on GE day 2015

    And there won't be a single Tory who is dissatisfied with the progress the party has made in the polls this year.

    As they say: "perfectly placed at the tutn four lengths behind the frontrunner and not yet off the bridle".

    The Labour horse is carrying 2 stone less though.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2013
    When was the last time a political party in power regularly polled fourth place in the polls.

    Tis a coalition after all.

    “innocent face” : )
  • I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon in this electoral cycle.

    Didn't you say something like that after the first test in Australia?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    AveryLP said:

    The only poll which matters is the result after 10pm on GE day 2015

    And there won't be a single Tory who is dissatisfied with the progress the party has made in the polls this year.

    As they say: "perfectly placed at the tutn four lengths behind the frontrunner and not yet off the bridle".

    The Labour horse is carrying 2 stone less though.
    Is that the apprentice jockey's allowance?

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Did the Tories really record leads in 1995?
  • No Bale, no Champs League, Ashes gone, No manager and now this polling 'first' for a decade....

    Still mustn't grumble, I could be Ed Balls.
  • I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon in this electoral cycle.

    Didn't you say something like that after the first test in Australia?

    I did.

    But England have that South African show pony KP, whereas The Tories have George Osborne, he's the man who stopped the 2007 General Election that never was.

    It was his masterful strategy that stopped that.

    Remember at the time, Labour MPs were writing.

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    What's been remarkable in historical terms is the stability of the polls. The Tories have to hope it's "freakish stability" and not the settled opinion that it appears to be.

    Meanwhile, the revision of European arrangements which Mr Cameron hopes will eventually lead to a treaty in 2017 lumber into a sprint:

    http://www.euractiv.com/euro-finance/leaders-hail-banking-union-antic-news-532515?utm_source=EurActiv Newsletter&utm_campaign=ddf8cf5618-newsletter_weekly_update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bab5f0ea4e-ddf8cf5618-245514803

    - next round of discussions about the new arrangements: er, November 2014. And when they've been decided, the leaders could if they wished start to consider a new treaty, ETA ca. 2022.

  • "I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead."

    We all know what happened in 2003, of course. If it had not been for that, Blair would have been PM for longer, he may have been strong enough to move Brown from the Treasury, and hopefully we would never have heard of David Miliband's banana.
  • I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon in this electoral cycle.

    Didn't you say something like that after the first test in Australia?

    Spurs aren't peaking too quickly either, the hares may be Arsenal and Liverpool but the tortoispurs will get you in the end.....

    circa 2020.
  • My advice to Denis Macshane, if you're likely to be in prison shortly, don't go round boasting how good looking you are.

    CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 34m

    Court usher asks for Denis MacShane, he replies: 'C'est moi. The good-looking one.'
  • What's been remarkable in historical terms is the stability of the polls. The Tories have to hope it's "freakish stability" and not the settled opinion that it appears to be.

    Are they really more stable, or is just that with so many more of them (YouGov daily and online Populus quite often, etc) that they appear more stable because most of the outliers are seen to be outliers relatively soon.

    In the days when there were only half a dozen phone polls a month, or so, any outlier would have been harder to identify, and so it might appear that opinion was less stable.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    SeanT said:

    Thing is, without the rise of UKIP I reckon we would have seen Tory leads quite regularly, and maybe some biggish ones, too - Tories 40, Labour 35, etc.

    They bin done up by the Kippers.

    Why exactly would a drop in UKIP support cause a drop in Labour support? A rise in Tory VI I can see, but would 3% of people stop planning to vote Labour if the Kippers were in retreat?

    Out of interest, does anyone know if/when Labour last had a year without a lead?
  • SeanT said:

    ON topic, this afternoon I'm getting emails autopinged back with "I am now out of the office until January 2nd..."

    WTF is this? It's not even Christmas Eve. It's 3pm on a workday 6 days before Christmas.

    GET BACK TO WORK, you stupid wage slaves.

    This kind of thing destroys my normal sense of smug, self-employed superiority. UGH.

    My out of office reply has been saying I'm out of the office until the 6th of January, for the past three days
  • My advice to Denis Macshane, if you're likely to be in prison shortly, don't go round boasting how good looking you are.

    CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 34m

    Court usher asks for Denis MacShane, he replies: 'C'est moi. The good-looking one.'

    That chirpiness should add a few months to the sentence.
  • I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon in this electoral cycle.

    Didn't you say something like that after the first test in Australia?

    Spurs aren't peaking too quickly either, the hares may be Arsenal and Liverpool but the tortoispurs will get you in the end.....

    circa 2020.
    It could be worse, you could be a Cardiff City fan.

    Because that would mean your're Welsh.
  • I love this.

    Oxford Times goes for the local angle: "Theatre goers injured at London play based on Oxford novelist's bestseller"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    SeanT said:

    Quincel said:

    SeanT said:

    Thing is, without the rise of UKIP I reckon we would have seen Tory leads quite regularly, and maybe some biggish ones, too - Tories 40, Labour 35, etc.

    They bin done up by the Kippers.

    Why exactly would a drop in UKIP support cause a drop in Labour support? A rise in Tory VI I can see, but would 3% of people stop planning to vote Labour if the Kippers were in retreat?

    Out of interest, does anyone know if/when Labour last had a year without a lead?
    Duh. Cause this year we've seen several polls with Labour on 35. There was an ICM one with Labour and the Tories tied on 35, I believe, or maybe 36. Add on five to the Tories for returning kippers, and Bob Crow's yer uncle.
    Ah yes, missed the phrase 'Some biggish ones'. Thought you meant the average would be 40/35.
  • I love this.

    Oxford Times goes for the local angle: "Theatre goers injured at London play based on Oxford novelist's bestseller"

    Nearly as good as this, when Lady Thatcher died, here's how the local paper in Dartford reported it

    Former Dartford candidate Margaret Thatcher dies

    http://www.gravesendreporter.co.uk/news/former_dartford_candidate_margaret_thatcher_dies_1_2008213
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    I love this.

    Oxford Times goes for the local angle: "Theatre goers injured at London play based on Oxford novelist's bestseller"

    It must have been a left wing novelist.

    Otherwise the roof would have been fixed when the sun shone.

  • Boris Watch ‏@BorisWatch 2m

    RT @TimPBouverie Defence says MacShane is a "man of good character..." < 'OBJECTION!'

    Arf.
  • Boris Watch ‏@BorisWatch 2m

    RT @TimPBouverie Defence says MacShane is a "man of good character..." < 'OBJECTION!'

    Arf.

    Well in one sense he is, prior to this, he has had no other criminal convictions, cautions etc.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    SeanT said:

    ON topic, this afternoon I'm getting emails autopinged back with "I am now out of the office until January 2nd..."

    WTF is this? It's not even Christmas Eve. It's 3pm on a workday 6 days before Christmas.

    GET BACK TO WORK, you stupid wage slaves.

    This kind of thing destroys my normal sense of smug, self-employed superiority. UGH.

    When I worked in the NHS it was finish at 5pm Xmas Eve and back (unless one was on call) at 8.45 on the day after Boxing Day. If one was on call of course ………

    Soft in private industry.
  • SeanT said:

    Quincel said:

    SeanT said:

    Thing is, without the rise of UKIP I reckon we would have seen Tory leads quite regularly, and maybe some biggish ones, too - Tories 40, Labour 35, etc.

    They bin done up by the Kippers.

    Why exactly would a drop in UKIP support cause a drop in Labour support? A rise in Tory VI I can see, but would 3% of people stop planning to vote Labour if the Kippers were in retreat?

    Out of interest, does anyone know if/when Labour last had a year without a lead?
    Duh. Cause this year we've seen several polls with Labour on 35. There was an ICM one with Labour and the Tories tied on 35, I believe, or maybe 36. Add on five to the Tories for returning kippers, and Bob Crow's yer uncle.
    Electoral Calculus puts the Tories still 10 short of a majority if they get 40% to Labour's 35%.

    They get a bit closer if the Lib Dems do less well out of the 18% you've left for UKIP + Lib Dems. Still no majority though.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    SeanT, FPT, said:

    "On each half hour trip I positively EXPECT there to be two or three unnerving encounters with a cyclist - by which I mean a cyclist acting dangerously, not giving me room to overtake on a narrow road"

    If the road is narrow there isn't room to overtake, unless the cyclist takes their bicycle onto the pavement. Rule 163 of the Highway Code:

    "give motorcyclists, cyclists and horse riders at least as much room as you 
    would when overtaking a car (see Rules 211-215)"


    They even have a photo to illustrate. It's not the job of the cyclist to get out of the way of a car driver behind them.

    I'm just home now from a very pleasant cycle ride. On the way I thought I might post this splendid article by Simon Jenkins that touches on some points to consider with regards to helmet use:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/sep/19/transport.transport

    On the point that cyclists should pay road tax, I don't mind if should be in proportion to the damage they cause. Certainly those drivers who think they are paying for the road would have a good case if petrol tax were, say, octupled. Any volunteers? It's hard to get specific numbers, but a search I tried to do some time ago seemed to indicate that by far the main share of road building & maintenance is paid for from ordinary tax and rates.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Here's some polling that only the bitterest Scrooge would not enjoy

    "This was supposed to be the year of strife, strikes, misery and more. Instead, to the surprise of Britain’s politicians, things have instead gone badly right."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/fraser-nelson/2013/12/ten-things-that-went-badly-right-in-2013/
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Oh là là

    Standard and Poor's (S&P) stripped the European Union (EU) of its triple-A rating on Friday due to a decline in overall creditworthiness and decreasing cohesion amidst its 28 members.

    “In our view, EU budgetary negotiations have become more contentious, signalling what we consider to be rising risks to the support of the EU from some member states,” S&P said in the report.

    In this context, the agency cut the region's credit rating to 'AA+' from the prior 'AAA' with a stable outlook.


    [Source: DigitalLook]
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    Anyone short of reading over Christmas can try the ALDE (the pan european liberal democrat party) manifesto for the 2014 European elections.

    http://www.aldeparty.eu/sites/eldr/files/news/10204/2014_alde_party_manifesto.pdf

    Enjoy!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    No sign yet of the McShane sentence.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    It's direct government intervention into a free private sector market.

    We may be laughing now, but this is an early vision of how Hollandais-Milibandism will be imposed on us Brits if we don't vote decisively in 2015.

  • Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Anyone short of reading over Christmas can try the ALDE (the pan european liberal democrat party) manifesto for the 2014 European elections.

    http://www.aldeparty.eu/sites/eldr/files/news/10204/2014_alde_party_manifesto.pdf

    Enjoy!

    Thank you, Verulamius.

    Just what I've always wanted.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited December 2013
    SeanT,
    Sorry if I gave any impression that I condone illegal or wilfully stupid cycling---or driving.Once or twice I have been assaulted verbally for no good reason, but generally not physically. In my actions, but often not my thoughts, I am very pacific, but it probably doesn't hurt my case(s) that I tend to look bigger the closer to me one gets. There are clearly some loons of both stripes out there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Were you in favour of Iraq...
  • SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    No sign yet of the McShane sentence.

    Apparently his brief thinks a lengthy speech about the wonderful trade union work McShane carried out in his youth will make a difference.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2013
    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 16m

    I am not a lawyer which is why I can't comprehend the relevance of MacShane's early life in trade-unionism is relevant to his case...

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 22m
    Macshane is not a "self-centred and greedy crook" says Defence. @Channel4News

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 25m
    The Defence is now reading out MacShane's CV he is a 'unique expert' on European politics apparently

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 43m
    Defence says that MacShane was not seeking to "enrich himself" with false invoices for expenses

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 45m
    Defence says MacShane is a "man of good character..."


    Judge in MacShane case lists the 'aggravating factors' this was a "breach of trust" and defendant was an MP
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Don't forget the character reference from Vicky Pryce ;)
    TGOHF said:

    No sign yet of the McShane sentence.

    Apparently his brief thinks a lengthy speech about the wonderful trade union work McShane carried out in his youth will make a difference.
  • SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
    i'm a cycle nut. but if there's a queue behind, I pull over and let them go.



  • SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
    i'm a cycle nut. but if there's a queue behind, I pull over and let them go.
    Well, it depends on the length of road, and at some point I too would pull over and stop cycling, but the situations I most often experience in urban riding the narrow sections of road are not that long, and the car drivers who squeeze past me have to stop at traffic lights or roundabouts a few yards ahead anyway. Often I catch back up to them and so they did nto gain any time at all by putting my life in danger.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

  • SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
    i'm a cycle nut. but if there's a queue behind, I pull over and let them go.
    Good to hear - come the glorious revolution you may be spared. : )
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2013
    SeanT said:

    Talking of beloved old lefties, i just heard the most extraordinary gossip about a very famous literary lefty.... which I am not going to share. Suffice to say if/when it ever comes out his career will be more than finished.

    And on that cheery note, I must go buy presents.

    Please let it be Will Self, please let it be Will Self. Pleeeeeeease.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
    i'm a cycle nut. but if there's a queue behind, I pull over and let them go.



    As I would driving a tractor, slow lorry our other vehicle holding up other road users.

    It is symptomatic of our selfish society that many do not feel it necessary to consider the effect their actions have on others.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 1m
    Defence has been listing mitigating factors in MacShane case for nearly an hour!
  • Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 53s

    Defence has been listing mitigating factors in MacShane case for nearly an hour!

    Stringing it out until after the 6 0'clock news perhaps ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 53s

    Defence has been listing mitigating factors in MacShane case for nearly an hour!

    Stringing it out until after the 6 0'clock news perhaps ?

    Hoping for Xmas at home ?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @CourtNewsUK: Denis MacShane will be sentenced on Monday... Judge wants time to reflect
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2013
    Paul Brand ‏@PaulBrandITV now

    Judge had decided to wait til Mon and reflect further before sentencing MacShane for expenses fraud.

    CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 9s - MacShane gets bail over the weekend
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    TGOHF said:

    @CourtNewsUK: Denis MacShane will be sentenced on Monday... Judge wants time to reflect

    His wife needs to iron the black cap I suppose.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    SeanT said:

    I'm talking about a cyclist doing 15mph on a long narrow 30mph road, driving in the centre of that road, with a tailback of cars behind him. He could cycle close to the lefthand side of the road so all the cars can overtake safely, giving him plenty of space. Result: everyone happy.

    If I am cycling on a narrow road, and there is traffic coming in the other direction, the road is not wide enough for cars to safely overtake me, no matter how far into the gutter I cycle.

    When car drivers insist on trying to squeeze past me they put my life in danger.
    i'm a cycle nut. but if there's a queue behind, I pull over and let them go.



    Me too

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    TGOHF said:

    No sign yet of the McShane sentence.

    Apparently his brief thinks a lengthy speech about the wonderful trade union work McShane carried out in his youth will make a difference.
    I knew many judges who treated boring sycophantic pleas in mitigation as an aggravating factor when contemplating the tariff for sentence.
  • In better news: The man behind the National Grid status web page will need to redraw his graphs - metered electricity from wind turbines has just exceeded his current axes. :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2013
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    I don't care if they are, I do care that bores keep hilariously saying "hello Tim". It's tedious and only amusing to the hard of thinking.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    In better news: The man behind the National Grid status web page will need to redraw his graphs - metered electricity from wind turbines has just exceeded his current axes. :)

    Cheers for the link Oblitus. Can you help me with 'CCGT' production though?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    TGOHF said:

    Tim Bouverie ‏@TimPBouverie 53s

    Defence has been listing mitigating factors in MacShane case for nearly an hour!

    Stringing it out until after the 6 0'clock news perhaps ?

    Hoping for Xmas at home ?

    I was an expert witness in a case once, called by the defence,; the case was due to be heard in early Dec, but our solicitor rang me up and told me the case had been postponed until January. That's a shame I said, hanging over the accused over Christmas. Well, she said, at least they'll be with their families over Christmas!
    Confidence in ones client is a wonderful thing!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    If we could get Hugh's views on Government build policy and Iraq it would sort it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    You should ask Hugh about milk production should clear it up..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    What's been remarkable in historical terms is the stability of the polls. The Tories have to hope it's "freakish stability" and not the settled opinion that it appears to be.

    Are they really more stable, or is just that with so many more of them (YouGov daily and online Populus quite often, etc) that they appear more stable because most of the outliers are seen to be outliers relatively soon.
    The polls aren't stable. They have been moving all year. Apart for the constant of calamity Clegg and the lib dem's hopeless position there has been very interesting movement. Not as significant as Osbrowne's omnishambles but very telling trends this year nonetheless.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Obviously the kipper VI has a direct correlation on tory VI which was crystal before this year, but the kipper vote also looks to be impacting on labour VI as well. The kipper vote is not just immigration or the EU but disaffected voters and when it gets high enough it starts eating into little Ed's polling.

    What it may mean is we could well see a similar pattern next year for labour, tory and kipper VI as there was for this year. With three significant differences. Last Jan the labour lead was roughly about 10% or so while this Jan it looks to be round about the 6% or so mark. The kipper VI is up from last Jan (not much but still up) despite falling back from the May elections. Finally most people expect the kipper VI to rise in a similar way to last May and it's not unreasonable to suppose that the rise could be even greater for the EU elections which should see some very interesting movement from labour and tory VI.

    To sum it up if the polling patterns and trends hold for next year then there is the potential for crossover at the EU elections or more likely after them. Little Ed focusing on cost of living might mitigate some disaffected labour switching while tories panicking over the EU and immigration might make things worse for them, but barring events outwith the EU elections litle Ed and Cammie are both going to have to deal with Farage as he impacts their vote.

    Of course as Cameron himself said anything above 5% from the kippers would be a nightmare for the tories on election day, but until then little Ed could start looking very shaky indeed if he can't look credible for such things as local and EU elections and keeps losing ground. If a labour leader can't make far more out of the cost of living crisis than little Ed has then it it's probably not the message but the messenger that is at fault.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TGOHF said:

    @CourtNewsUK: Denis MacShane will be sentenced on Monday... Judge wants time to reflect

    I feel one of those wonderfully understated yet excoriating judge's statements coming on.
  • Was Macshane's moll there in court with him?
  • TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    You should ask Hugh about milk production should clear it up..
    I'm getting tired of this. Hugh is not Tim so please end any speculation



  • Mike, not sure the Conservatives did record a lead in 1995:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,470
    Quincel said:

    In better news: The man behind the National Grid status web page will need to redraw his graphs - metered electricity from wind turbines has just exceeded his current axes. :)

    Cheers for the link Oblitus. Can you help me with 'CCGT' production though?
    Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_cycle

    Basically, gas power.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2013

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    You should ask Hugh about milk production should clear it up..
    I'm getting tired of this. Hugh is not Tim so please end any speculation



    Really? How can you be 100% sure?

    email addresses are easy to make up and IP addresses are easy to scramble
  • It's an interesting stat for a topic. UKIP's significant rise is probably largely the cause.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    You should ask Hugh about milk production should clear it up..
    I'm getting tired of this. Hugh is not Tim so please end any speculation



    Come on, ref ! Straight red, I'd say.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    My advice to Denis Macshane, if you're likely to be in prison shortly, don't go round boasting how good looking you are.

    CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 34m

    Court usher asks for Denis MacShane, he replies: 'C'est moi. The good-looking one.'

    That chirpiness should add a few months to the sentence.
    Absurdly stupid. In my experience with courts (not insignificant) judges loathe that kind of cockiness. But maybe he will get away with it, as an old lefty MP.

    Talking of beloved old lefties, i just heard the most extraordinary gossip about a very famous literary lefty.... which I am not going to share. Suffice to say if/when it ever comes out his career will be more than finished.

    And on that cheery note, I must go buy presents.
    Probably just wishful thinking on my part but i'm beginning to wonder if the Cameroon's plan to privatize the police force - scuppered by the Olympics - has sparked plod into going after VIP blanks, especially politicians, for the first time in about 60 years.

    Be funny if all the police forces in Europe did that at once - Brussels would be empty.
  • It's an interesting stat for a topic. UKIP's significant rise is probably largely the cause.

    One of the causes. What's surprising is that despite the 'no leads' stat, it's not as if the Conservatives have been that far behind, generally in the 6-10% range and probably ending the year only about 5% behind. It's not like Labour in 2008 or the Conservatives in 1995.
  • Mike, not sure the Conservatives did record a lead in 1995:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    I must admit, I was surprised by that claim given that 1995 was about the worst year electorally for the Conservatives since about 1832. Didn't one poll put the Tories on 18.5% that year?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    isam said:

    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
    I think you are a BNP shill, every time you post I'll ask your opinion on Mein Kampf, because I think it's interesting, fair enough? You don't have a problem with that do you?

  • Indeed, Mr. Herdson. Any suggestion of posting a cat picture captioned "Oh noes!" would be excessive.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Seems to me that both Labour and Tory polling is probably a bit inflated by the under stating of Ukip support - although it will vary a lot from area to area.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    It's an interesting stat for a topic. UKIP's significant rise is probably largely the cause.

    One of the causes. What's surprising is that despite the 'no leads' stat, it's not as if the Conservatives have been that far behind, generally in the 6-10% range and probably ending the year only about 5% behind. It's not like Labour in 2008 or the Conservatives in 1995.
    UKIP attracting Conservative swing voters, prevents them switching to Labour.

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/47012/how-ukip-is-damaging-labour-reprised/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    isam said:

    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
    I think you are a BNP shill, every time you post I'll ask your opinion on Mein Kampf, because I think it's interesting, fair enough? You don't have a problem with that do you?

    Rather silly, and a lot less likely than tim & Hugh being the same person, but I cant stop you.

    What is a shill?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    SeanT, FPT, said:

    "On each half hour trip I positively EXPECT there to be two or three unnerving encounters with a cyclist - by which I mean a cyclist acting dangerously, not giving me room to overtake on a narrow road"

    National training for cyclists (Bikeability) tells them to take the 'primary position' on a narrow road to prevent them being squeezed out of the way by an impatient driver. You may think it's dangerous behaviour. It's not. 'Getting out of your way' when there isn't room, would be.

    Perhaps you need to try it sometime - you may take a different view.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    isam said:

    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
    I think you are a BNP shill, every time you post I'll ask your opinion on Mein Kampf, because I think it's interesting, fair enough? You don't have a problem with that do you?

    Rather silly, and a lot less likely than tim & Hugh being the same person, but I cant stop you.

    What is a shill?
    You are hard of thinking. I'll leave you to it rather than pollute the thread further.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    saddened said:

    isam said:

    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
    I think you are a BNP shill, every time you post I'll ask your opinion on Mein Kampf, because I think it's interesting, fair enough? You don't have a problem with that do you?

    Rather silly, and a lot less likely than tim & Hugh being the same person, but I cant stop you.

    What is a shill?
    A plant/stooge. Like you see on QUestion Time audience quite often.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    Ukip and class: Ukip have to be seen as a centre-right "comfortablist" party imo because most of their potential activists will come from the Cons (as most ex-labour ones will have dropped out of active politics years ago as PC took over New Labour). They can get working class support simply by having policies based on supply and demand always operating - which it does - no matter how many economists are paid to say it doesn't.

    (Where comfortablist is about maximizing the number of people who are "comfortable" (by their own standards) rather than maximizing poverty which is what the banksters and the nomenklatura want.)
  • Highland Council have finally published the result of the Black Isle by-election. Another dire result for the Scottish Lib Dems in a former stronghold (this is in Charlie Kennedy's seat).

    Ind (Barclay) 1,342
    Ind (Fraser) 633
    SNP 594
    LD 489
    Grn 362
    Ind (Phillips) 304
    Lab 194
    Con 175

    2012 - Ind 1130/677/240/212, LD 646, SNP 610, Grn 292, Lab 216, Con 141, SCP 57
    2007 - Ind 1233/985/433, LD 973, SNP 558, Con 408, Grn 267, Lab 192
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    isam said:

    saddened said:

    isam said:

    philiph said:



    isam said:

    saddened said:

    Hugh said:

    The fact that the polls have been so stable for so long makes me fairly confident of a Labour majority.

    The only really churn appears to be Tory/Undecided/Fruitcake swapping votes off each other.

    Good afternoon Tim.
    would you and all the other tedious bores give it a rest.

    Do you honestly think "Hugh" and "tim" are not connected?
    Do I (or we) care?
    I think its interesting to know.. if you don't, fair enough..

    @Saddened why does it bother you if other people want to know?
    I think you are a BNP shill, every time you post I'll ask your opinion on Mein Kampf, because I think it's interesting, fair enough? You don't have a problem with that do you?

    Rather silly, and a lot less likely than tim & Hugh being the same person, but I cant stop you.

    What is a shill?
    You are hard of thinking. I'll leave you to it rather than pollute the thread further.
    haha fair enough.. Ill pass on your best to NG x

  • Second Friday on the trot there’s been no Henry G thread. – Hope everything is OK in the Manson household!
  • F1: just having a look at the Sochi diagram:
    http://www.formula1.com/races/in_detail/russia_930/

    The right angles confuse me. Assuming it isn't a street circuit, why so many? They're a rubbish angle for a corner. Too slow, but they also lack the overtaking opportunity a hairpin affords.

    From 2 to 5 (from memory of the 2012 PS3 game, so I could be utterly wrong) reminds me of the last bit of Hungary, which is also not great.

    Excepting that long curve it's basically a collection of right angles. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm not a technical sort, so it's entirely possible, and the circuit diagram doesn't show any undulation, so that might make things interesting.
  • Mr. StClare, so do I. Hopefully he's just getting time off for good behaviour.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Highland Council have finally published the result of the Black Isle by-election. Another dire result for the Scottish Lib Dems in a former stronghold (this is in Charlie Kennedy's seat).

    Ind (Barclay) 1,342
    Ind (Fraser) 633
    SNP 594
    LD 489
    Grn 362
    Ind (Phillips) 304
    Lab 194
    Con 175

    2012 - Ind 1130/677/240/212, LD 646, SNP 610, Grn 292, Lab 216, Con 141, SCP 57
    2007 - Ind 1233/985/433, LD 973, SNP 558, Con 408, Grn 267, Lab 192

    The vote numbers you have given are not the 1st preference votes but the final votes for each candidate after any transfers . They are not therefore comparable to the figures from previous years .
    All we know of the 1st preferences are that the Conservatives had 175 and Barclay ( from a report in the Rossshire Journal ) 1003 .
This discussion has been closed.