Cummings does have a vision of central control by committed apparatchiks, backed by information on all citizens and iron discipline that whiffs more than a bit of Stalinism.
I think his suspicion of the traditional institutions of state, including Civil Service, Journalists, Universities and even Armed Forces very reminiscent too. Purges and showtrials are all part of his 5 year plan.
The psychologically (maybe even psychiatrically) interesting thing is what happens next.
The Cummings thesis is that government can run better- to the tune of picking up billion pound notes off the street- with a Mission Control office packed with the right people and a fat pipe of real-time data projected onto big screens.
It's possible that he's right. Almost everything is possible. But there are reasonable reasons to think that he's wrong, and this model is going to make lots of things worse.
If that happens- if Cummings's Control Room buttons are connected to a tangle of wet string- what does he do next?
Using big data to improve the govt and its departments seems very worthy. Putting the inexperienced big data geeks in charge of key decisions rather than giving advice seems very risky and likely to go wrong.
Data is only as good as its inherent quality and its models. This requires tip-top hygiene, boring attention to detail, team-working and rigorous governance. Every one of which things Cummings and his government are particularly bad at.
It is worth looking at some of the opposition to this.
Some years ago, a friend in the Civil Service blotted his copybook, by showing a minister a report on a certain subject.
The report was written by a noted researcher on the area in question, in a peer reviewed journal.
The reason he blotted his copybook was that the report directly showed that the "departmental policy" agreed by the mandarins on the area in question was, to use a technical term, bollocks.
On the aid budget I dont see why the UK needs to pay much more than other rich (and richer) countries. It is part of our delusion about exceptionalism and being world class. If we are in the top half of countries of similar wealth we are doing our share so relaxed about the exact percentage, 0.7 is completely arbitrary and meaningless.
I would strongly support a policy to drive up the percentage given globally by all the wealthy countries but until that happens we can be in the pack. Getting the poorest in the world to $2 a day income would make a massive difference to global stability and in turn the global economy but the UK needs to stop pretending it can do it on its own, or with a handful of partner countries.
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
I am less worried by Covid-19 fatalities today than I expect to be in 30, 60 or 90 days time.
I don't dispute your assertion that people might be dying unnecessarily of non-Covid diseases due to Covid. What I do dispute is your conspiracy theories that Covid is merely a mirage to be ignored.
That's an excellent question. And the fact that it's an excellent question (he's not the PM, he's the hired help, after all) shows that we all may have a problem.
My concern is that it involves making nationally averaged KPIs go up, and ignoring the 70 million individuals that make up those averages.
A bit like the old jokes about Soviet production targets; a factory tasked with making a million boots would make a million boots (size 6, left foot).
As happened with the Covid tests (raw numbers mattered, even if fewer, faster and more convenient tests would have been more useful), Saving The NHS by sending Granny back to the care home to infect all her friends, and the A Level results (all the right results, many of them given to the wrong people).
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
An interesting question is why Trump is so open about wanting to steal the election? He could follow his mentor Putin and pervert democracy covertly with a layer of just-about-plausible deniability. He would have plenty of Republican useful helpers in the states. A covert operation would have a fair chance of success.
He doesn't think that what he's doing is wrong, so there's no need to hide it.
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
I think Tesla's idea to raise 1/3rd the market cap of Nissan by diluting shareholder equity by err... 1% or so is the smartest move in a while. Turn irrational exuberance into real cash.
The Right have been itching to put the boot into Boris almost from the start. No sooner had Delingpole declared that Boris would preside over a 'Golden Age' than he was lambasting the man for being an eco-socialist!
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
90% of the UK live in England, is it bizarre that most people blame the man in charge of education in England rather than focus on what happens elsewhere? Its not like 25% live in each nation so should get equal attention.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
Heatwave, probably.
*checks the central heating is on, again*
Seriously? There is unquestionably a cancer time bomb of undiagnosed tumours which have developed past the operable stage during lockdown. I suspect many other conditions that might have been usefully regulated (blood pressure/statins) etc have been neglected too. The worrying thing is that this is ongoing.
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
Yes. Amazing. And a big reason why the US index is outperforming (by miles) the UK one. The tech domination.
That's an excellent question. And the fact that it's an excellent question (he's not the PM, he's the hired help, after all) shows that we all may have a problem.
My concern is that it involves making nationally averaged KPIs go up, and ignoring the 70 million individuals that make up those averages.
A bit like the old jokes about Soviet production targets; a factory tasked with making a million boots would make a million boots (size 6, left foot).
As happened with the Covid tests (raw numbers mattered, even if fewer, faster and more convenient tests would have been more useful), Saving The NHS by sending Granny back to the care home to infect all her friends, and the A Level results (all the right results, many of them given to the wrong people).
The difference is that with the algorithm there will have been some who got better than they should have, some who got worse than they should have and there was no way of knowing who was whom. The specifics mattered.
Here it is the aggregate that matters to be frank. Yes in one scenario some may do better and others do worse - while in another scenario others may do better and others again do worse. But neither scenario is objectively the right one.
Joe Kennedy's political career isn't dead but I think today's defeat probably rules him out from running for the presidency this side of 2040.
The state AG slot might open up in a couple of years' time. If he's in it for the long run, then he might go for that. What's for sure is that he can no longer be a young man in a hurry...
In any event, I'm banking on the other half of this recent prediction proving equally dud. If Joe Kennedy III wins the Massachusetts Senate race this year and Trump is re elected he becomes the likely next President in 2024 in my view.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
If I only took holidays in Socialist republics I would be somewhat limited. Even Bolsover is no longer allowable!!
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
True once, not so much now. We're all Brexit Tories!
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
90% of the UK live in England, is it bizarre that most people blame the man in charge of education in England rather than focus on what happens elsewhere? Its not like 25% live in each nation so should get equal attention.
Are the regional news programmes pushing for their respective regional education secretaries to resign?
An interesting question is why Trump is so open about wanting to steal the election? He could follow his mentor Putin and pervert democracy covertly with a layer of just-about-plausible deniability. He would have plenty of Republican useful helpers in the states. A covert operation would have a fair chance of success.
He doesn't think that what he's doing is wrong, so there's no need to hide it.
What's good for Donald Trump is good for the country
Ah, yes, because you've always thought we should follow Ms. Oakeshott's recommendations to the letter before, right?
Therein lies the problem, she is in fact as loyal a right wing Tory as you are.
A Tory? She's BXP through and through! Ever heard of Richard Tice?
I thought Ms Oakshott and Mr Rice were converts to Boris Johnson's New Brexit Conservatives.
I don't think so. Considering that Richard Tice stood as a candidate for the Brexit Party against a Conservative Party candidate - and I believe Ms Oakeshott was campaigning for them too - then that does seem rather implausible to me.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
Also currently on hol in Wales - can't move for PBers down here. I'll put in a plug for my favorite hotel in sunny south Pembrokeshire:
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
I would hope one would not have to be divitior Croeso to holiday in Wales! Sounds a bit capitalist to me.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Indeed, so they should all be coming under pressure to resign. The BBC has as part of its remit to give a lot of attention to each nation. It's why you had the nonsense of Chesterfield fans (who couldn't get a ticket at Saltergate) driving to Wales to watch on BBC Wales their FA Cup QF with Wrexham in 1997.
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
I think Tesla's idea to raise 1/3rd the market cap of Nissan by diluting shareholder equity by err... 1% or so is the smartest move in a while. Turn irrational exuberance into real cash.
I also think that those who write off the American economy (and indeed Trump's chances) should reflect that the likes of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft and Mastercard are reaching levels of dominance not seen since the Ma Bell break up in the early 80s.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
I am less worried by Covid-19 fatalities today than I expect to be in 30, 60 or 90 days time.
I don't dispute your assertion that people might be dying unnecessarily of non-Covid diseases due to Covid. What I do dispute is your conspiracy theories that Covid is merely a mirage to be ignored.
I find your Covid-19 related posts disturbing.
Why?? If Covid was the cause of these excess daeths we would back in full lockdown. Beacuse these deaths are caused by dieseases/illnesses we are used to no one cares and nothing is being done about it.
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
90% of the UK live in England, is it bizarre that most people blame the man in charge of education in England rather than focus on what happens elsewhere? Its not like 25% live in each nation so should get equal attention.
At the time it was relevant? No. Though I don't see why it shouldn't have been mentioned at the time.
Later on when it is clear that all had done the same thing, all have stayed and frankly the news story in education is the return to school? Yes absolutely it is bizarre.
If there were issues with back to school right now there isn't the slightest chance people would still be talking about the exams. That there isn't is a good thing - but lets not say that lets harp on about last months stories instead. Its pathetic.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
Also currently on hol in Wales - can't move for PBers down here. I'll put in a plug for my favorite hotel in sunny south Pembrokeshire:
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
States / constituencies elect MPs
The MPs caucus together and select a head of the executive branch
What’s fundamentally different?
What's fundamentally different is the winner-takes-all nature of the Electoral College at a statewide level. Take Florida 2000 as a famous example. Even discarding the hanging chads issues, there were millions of votes for both candidates but only a few hundred lead for Bush and the result was that all 25 Electoral College votes went to Bush. A few hundred votes the other way and all 25 would have switched to Gore.
The UK doesn't switch MPs en bloc like that. Since the 1948 Representation of the People Act each constituency in the United Kingdom is only worth a single MP. That is completely different to the US system.
As an example if we were to operate like the USA then take Lancashire. Lancashire has 16 constituencies which have gone 11 to the Tories, 4 to Labour and 1 to The Speaker. Under the US system it would be 16 to the Tories. In 2005 Labour won 12 of 15, with the Tories getting 3, while in 2010 the Tories won 9, Labour 6 and LDs 1. In the US system it would have been 2005 Labour 15, Tories 0; in 2010 Tories 16, Labour 0.
That's a big difference.
I've had a quick look at the past 4 elections. If we'd voted by region as Electoral College votes, we'd have had:
2019: Con 356, Lab 217, SNP 59, DUP 18 votes. Con win 2017: Con 302, Lab 271, SNP 59, DUP 18. No winner; vote goes "to the house" and voted on by State Delegations. Con have 5, Lab have 5, SNP have 1, DUP have 1. House likely split; there'll be a lot of voting until either the SNP buckle and put the Tories in (unlikely!) or the DUP get bought off by Labour. Likely Corbyn Government. 2015: Exactly the same as 2017. 2010: Con 302, Lab 330, Sinn Fein 18. Gordon Brown wins.
Prior to that, Labour did better, so I can't see a Tory Government under Regional Electoral College voting until 1992 at the closest, and I wouldn't be surprised if they still lost there. Labour's grip on the Electoral Votes of Scotland, Wales, the NE, NW, London, and Yorkshire and Humberside prior to that means they've got 330 EVs in the bag. Since losing Scotland's EVs to the SNP, that's been hit, but that's not helpful to the Tories. The 2019 election, instead of being a Tory landslide, came down to a 4% gap in Yorkshire & Humberside. A tiny slip there puts Labour back into Downing Street.
Ah, yes, because you've always thought we should follow Ms. Oakeshott's recommendations to the letter before, right?
Therein lies the problem, she is in fact as loyal a right wing Tory as you are.
A Tory? She's BXP through and through! Ever heard of Richard Tice?
I thought Ms Oakshott and Mr Rice were converts to Boris Johnson's New Brexit Conservatives.
I don't think so. Considering that Richard Tice stood as a candidate for the Brexit Party against a Conservative Party candidate - and I believe Ms Oakeshott was campaigning for them too - then that does seem rather implausible to me.
Same nasty xenophobic principles, just a different name. If it looks and smells like a right wing Tory, it's a right wing Tory!
During the holidays we visited the fascinating nuclear bunker near St Andrews, which has a cold war era control room for running what would be left of Scotland after WW3 that looks more or less identical to this. Cummings has always struck me as someone who would be right at home in a nuclear bunker, organising summary executions and deciding who would get the flour rations.
An interesting question is why Trump is so open about wanting to steal the election? He could follow his mentor Putin and pervert democracy covertly with a layer of just-about-plausible deniability. He would have plenty of Republican useful helpers in the states. A covert operation would have a fair chance of success.
He doesn't think that what he's doing is wrong, so there's no need to hide it.
Moreover attempting to arrange such a thing behind the scenes opens him up to potential conspiracy charges.
Cummings does have a vision of central control by committed apparatchiks, backed by information on all citizens and iron discipline that whiffs more than a bit of Stalinism.
I think his suspicion of the traditional institutions of state, including Civil Service, Journalists, Universities and even Armed Forces very reminiscent too. Purges and showtrials are all part of his 5 year plan.
The psychologically (maybe even psychiatrically) interesting thing is what happens next.
The Cummings thesis is that government can run better- to the tune of picking up billion pound notes off the street- with a Mission Control office packed with the right people and a fat pipe of real-time data projected onto big screens.
It's possible that he's right. Almost everything is possible. But there are reasonable reasons to think that he's wrong, and this model is going to make lots of things worse.
If that happens- if Cummings's Control Room buttons are connected to a tangle of wet string- what does he do next?
If I can look at the October Revolution and say that there were particular events and circumstances that lead to its degeneration into bloodthirsty terror, rather than that being an inevitable consequence of Socialist Revolution, then I'm sure that Cummings can find plenty of other people to blame for the failure of his system of government.
Another alternative is that, like many attempts to run things with data, it might be successful by the metrics chosen to measure success, and he'll be outraged when everyone does not agree that it's successful.
So that raises the question: what does success look like for Dominic Cummings?
That's an excellent question. And the fact that it's an excellent question (he's not the PM, he's the hired help, after all) shows that we all may have a problem.
My concern is that it involves making nationally averaged KPIs go up, and ignoring the 70 million individuals that make up those averages.
A bit like the old jokes about Soviet production targets; a factory tasked with making a million boots would make a million boots (size 6, left foot).
As happened with the Covid tests (raw numbers mattered, even if fewer, faster and more convenient tests would have been more useful), Saving The NHS by sending Granny back to the care home to infect all her friends, and the A Level results (all the right results, many of them given to the wrong people).
Oh yes. So does Parliament or the People get to find out what those KPIs are? How they're calculated?
I imagine we might hear about those that improve, in time.
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
I think Tesla's idea to raise 1/3rd the market cap of Nissan by diluting shareholder equity by err... 1% or so is the smartest move in a while. Turn irrational exuberance into real cash.
I also think that those who write off the American economy (and indeed Trump's chances) should reflect that the likes of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft and Mastercard are reaching levels of dominance not seen since the Ma Bell break up in the early 80s.
The market cap of California based companies will probably be more than the rest of the world combined by 2030.
No 10 plans to create online “ID cards” for British citizens as Dominic Cummings tries to revolutionise the use of data across government.
Under proposals announced yesterday each person will be assigned a unique digital identity to help them with such tasks as registering with a new GP.
The details have yet to be finalised but it is understood that legislation could be amended to remove the need for landlords to check tenants’ immigration documents. Witnesses would no longer have to attend signings on property deals in person, and bar owners would be able to digitally verify drinkers’ ages.
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
I don't hold a candle for Williamson. The algorithm was almost certainly not his idea but he was too stupid to see it was wrong. The consequences of his error for both Universities and subsequent years of students have still to be worked out and there are no satisfactory solutions. He is useless and should have gone.
In the next few months we are going to have a significant uptick in Covid infections as students gather and do what students do. We have a major issue with when the exams are going to be sat this year, what the extent of the syllabus is going to be and how the grade inflation is going to be dealt with. We need someone competent to deal with this.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
I am less worried by Covid-19 fatalities today than I expect to be in 30, 60 or 90 days time.
I don't dispute your assertion that people might be dying unnecessarily of non-Covid diseases due to Covid. What I do dispute is your conspiracy theories that Covid is merely a mirage to be ignored.
I find your Covid-19 related posts disturbing.
Why?? If Covid was the cause of these excess daeths we would back in full lockdown. Beacuse these deaths are caused by dieseases/illnesses we are used to no one cares and nothing is being done about it.
Because Covid is infectious and around 50,000 have already died from Covid in the UK. If we hadn't locked down more would have perished. Epidemiologists are suggesting the second wave WILL be worse. I don't think it is wise to try, in practice to prove them right or wrong.
Using the aid budget to buy weapons would go down like a lead balloon for anyone that cares about aid, but from the suggestions in that article funding hospital ships that can be used for disaster relief from the aid budget looks like an excellent idea that everyone should be able to support. I don't see why disaster relief shouldn't be considered aid, it absolutely should be.
Hospital ships are a non-starter due to their vast crewing requirements - USNS Comfort and Mercy have complements of over 1,400 each! There are only 33,000 regulars in the RN in total.
I suppose Dido H. could organise Serco or Capita to run them. I'm sure that would work out splendidly.
I don't see why that's a non-starter, that sounds even better. Buy 3 hospital ships and transfer the wages of 4,200 of the 33,000 from MOD to FCDO. Job done.
Who is going to the crew the ships those 4,200 come off? The RN already has 2 frigates out of 19 escort vessels tied up doing fuck all for lack of crew.
Adding 3 hospital ships would denude the entire T45 fleet or both carriers of crew. The RN don't want them anyway as rules of warfare greatly limit their usage. They would prefer one or more PCRS (Primary Casualty Receiving Ships) which have much more military utility. RFA Argus is the current PCRS (and Aviation Training Ship) but the tories are going to scrap that in 2024 with no replacement.
The US stock market is doing really well. That is a much bigger opportunity for Trump than playing games with protests and riots.
Apple is worth almost UK GDP. That's one of those stats.
I thought the stat about Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 is even more remarkable since that is genuinely comparing like with like. Standard Oil eat your heart out.
I think Tesla's idea to raise 1/3rd the market cap of Nissan by diluting shareholder equity by err... 1% or so is the smartest move in a while. Turn irrational exuberance into real cash.
I also think that those who write off the American economy (and indeed Trump's chances) should reflect that the likes of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft and Mastercard are reaching levels of dominance not seen since the Ma Bell break up in the early 80s.
The market cap of California based companies will probably be more than the rest of the world combined by 2030.
Possibly sooner. If the US government could only get them to pay a bit of tax...
Ah, yes, because you've always thought we should follow Ms. Oakeshott's recommendations to the letter before, right?
Therein lies the problem, she is in fact as loyal a right wing Tory as you are.
A Tory? She's BXP through and through! Ever heard of Richard Tice?
I thought Ms Oakshott and Mr Rice were converts to Boris Johnson's New Brexit Conservatives.
I don't think so. Considering that Richard Tice stood as a candidate for the Brexit Party against a Conservative Party candidate - and I believe Ms Oakeshott was campaigning for them too - then that does seem rather implausible to me.
Same nasty xenophobic principles, just a different name. If it looks and smells like a right wing Tory, it's a right wing Tory!
OK you clearly have zero credibility.
If you think that the Tories are represented by people who stood against the Tories at an election . . . that says more about you than me.
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
You're supposed to restrict your movements for 14 days after arriving in Ireland from GB.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
Also currently on hol in Wales - can't move for PBers down here. I'll put in a plug for my favorite hotel in sunny south Pembrokeshire:
Looks slightly better than the Premier Inn at Holyhead.
4 nights for £108 though so can't complain.
First time away from Mrs BJ since she became a Paraplegic in 2016.
Going away again with her at the end of the month if we can get the local Morecambe Bay NHS to commit to doing what they did last time we visited the specialist accommodation. (4 beds 3 overbed hoists).
If NHS won't provide early morning bowel care we will have to cancel. Never crossed our minds when we booked that Covid might mean they won't.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
You're supposed to restrict your movements for 14 days after arriving in Ireland from GB.
Are you?
Looks like that trip will be not going ahead. Through my passport in at last minute just in case. Any good tips for something else to do for a single traveller witj mobility issues in Anglesey?
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
You're supposed to restrict your movements for 14 days after arriving in Ireland from GB.
Are you?
Looks like that trip will be not going ahead. Through my passport in at last minute just in case. Any good tips for something else to do for a single traveller witj mobility issues in Anglesey?
It's a decision that all 4 ministers in the UK responsible for education took. I find it vanishingly unlikely that that was not as a result of professional guidance by the Civil Service rather than 1 of those Ministers going off on one.
Yes the obsession some have with Williamson well after this story has finished, when all 4 did the same thing, is bizarre to say the least. If Williamson was the odd one out it'd be different but the obsession with him is trying to make him the odd one out instead.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
90% of the UK live in England, is it bizarre that most people blame the man in charge of education in England rather than focus on what happens elsewhere? Its not like 25% live in each nation so should get equal attention.
Are the regional news programmes pushing for their respective regional education secretaries to resign?
I dont really mind, they probably are, but those countries have chosen devolved politics so not sure why I am expected to follow N Irish education politics any more than German education politics. It is just not something that is going to interest me or most casual observers of UK politics - it is inevitably niche and the coverage reflects that.
An interesting question is why Trump is so open about wanting to steal the election? He could follow his mentor Putin and pervert democracy covertly with a layer of just-about-plausible deniability. He would have plenty of Republican useful helpers in the states. A covert operation would have a fair chance of success.
He doesn't think that what he's doing is wrong, so there's no need to hide it.
What's good for Donald Trump is good for the country
And the other side cheat even more, so his cheating only makes things less unfair.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
You don't think that the advice that they all received might have been co-ordinated and cross checked with the officials elsewhere influencing the decision? Ok. It's a view.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
Seriously?
What Pulpstar is suggesting is that all 4 education ministers overruled their civil servants. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
What you're suggesting is that 3 education ministers gave the same advice which was followed while a 4th one was given completely different advice that he by an entirely unrelated coincidence he overruled that just happened to bring his decision making in line with the advice the other education ministers received. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
Occam's razor is that they were all advised to do what they did and they all did it.
Punters have never been convinced on Biden. You could still get on him at 1.05 after he'd got all the delegates, and Hillary was still available at barely 100/1 on the very day he was officially nominated.
They both have to survive nine weeks. I think they're going to manage that.
One or either might fail (I've seen a rumour that some of Biden's senior aides are discussing if he should take the knee in the first presidential debate, for example, which would be a gift to Trump) but they will be the candidates fighting it out on polling day. No question.
The way I look at it is:
1) Some that voted Trump will not vote for him this time (they may vote Biden or more likely abstain) 2) He has virtually no new constituency from which to draw new votes 3) Biden is much more palatable to many than Clinton 4) Anti-Trumpers who didn`t bother voting last time will be super motivated to vote this time. (I think turnout differentials are generally more significant in elections than floating voters.)
I can`t see a flaw in the logic in any of the above, and cannot see any other result than a significant Biden win.
The only real cards for Trump are massive voter suppression, and getting Republican allies to try to call states for him early or to refuse to certify losses.
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
I agree. The electoral college is stupid. I don't know anybody who would set it up as it is now if they were starting from scratch.
Our electoral system is not perfect either, as constituencies are not equal-sized. The Outer Hebridies has 21k and the Isle of Wight has 105k. So an OH vote is worth 5x what an Isle of Wight vote is worth.
But Wyoming has one EC vote per 190k people while CA has one per 1.4m, a 7x disparity. So our system is better, from tha point of view.
If we finally get around to eqalising constituency sizes, of course, that's another matter.
The US system has varying EC votes all the way through, for example, you could compare Texas vs. Rhode Island or Florida vs. South Dakota
Once our new boundaries are put in place, you should have 645 constituencies all within a narrow range, and then 5 undersized constituencies due to being islands
The EC system would be better if it wasn't 'winner takes all', and the EC votes were split according to the votes cast. In the last list HYUFD posted the two main candidates were within a percentage point of each other in most cases; in only the last two was there what one might describe as a clear lead for one or the other, yet in each case all the EC votes were cast one way or the other.
The best argument I've heard for the EC, or at any rate for some state-based system, is what happens if there's a very close result. If it's in the EC, then the recount chaos is limited to one or two states, as in 2000.
But can you imagine the nationwide chaos and paralysis if the candidates were within a couple of thousand votes of each other nationwide? Each party would look for tiny anomalies and claim that because a few posters showed the wrong opening times for a polling station in Rhode Island or Alaska, the other side has stolen the election.
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
States / constituencies elect MPs
The MPs caucus together and select a head of the executive branch
What’s fundamentally different?
What's fundamentally different is the winner-takes-all nature of the Electoral College at a statewide level. Take Florida 2000 as a famous example. Even discarding the hanging chads issues, there were millions of votes for both candidates but only a few hundred lead for Bush and the result was that all 25 Electoral College votes went to Bush. A few hundred votes the other way and all 25 would have switched to Gore.
The UK doesn't switch MPs en bloc like that. Since the 1948 Representation of the People Act each constituency in the United Kingdom is only worth a single MP. That is completely different to the US system.
As an example if we were to operate like the USA then take Lancashire. Lancashire has 16 constituencies which have gone 11 to the Tories, 4 to Labour and 1 to The Speaker. Under the US system it would be 16 to the Tories. In 2005 Labour won 12 of 15, with the Tories getting 3, while in 2010 the Tories won 9, Labour 6 and LDs 1. In the US system it would have been 2005 Labour 15, Tories 0; in 2010 Tories 16, Labour 0.
That's a big difference.
I've had a quick look at the past 4 elections. If we'd voted by region as Electoral College votes, we'd have had:
2019: Con 356, Lab 217, SNP 59, DUP 18 votes. Con win 2017: Con 302, Lab 271, SNP 59, DUP 18. No winner; vote goes "to the house" and voted on by State Delegations. Con have 5, Lab have 5, SNP have 1, DUP have 1. House likely split; there'll be a lot of voting until either the SNP buckle and put the Tories in (unlikely!) or the DUP get bought off by Labour. Likely Corbyn Government. 2015: Exactly the same as 2017. 2010: Con 302, Lab 330, Sinn Fein 18. Gordon Brown wins.
Prior to that, Labour did better, so I can't see a Tory Government under Regional Electoral College voting until 1992 at the closest, and I wouldn't be surprised if they still lost there. Labour's grip on the Electoral Votes of Scotland, Wales, the NE, NW, London, and Yorkshire and Humberside prior to that means they've got 330 EVs in the bag. Since losing Scotland's EVs to the SNP, that's been hit, but that's not helpful to the Tories. The 2019 election, instead of being a Tory landslide, came down to a 4% gap in Yorkshire & Humberside. A tiny slip there puts Labour back into Downing Street.
Except if we were voting on EC college lines we would be voting by county not on regional lines, Essex and Kent and Yorkshire for example have bigger populations than some US states.
In the US the regions are the West, South, North East and Midwest, which split 50-50 in 2016 between Trump and Hillary even though Trump won a big EC margin statewide.
At GE19 the Tories won 40 counties, Labour won just 6.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
You don't think that the advice that they all received might have been co-ordinated and cross checked with the officials elsewhere influencing the decision? Ok. It's a view.
Indeed. The easier decision for a minister is to follow his advice, not to overrule it.
No 10 plans to create online “ID cards” for British citizens as Dominic Cummings tries to revolutionise the use of data across government.
Under proposals announced yesterday each person will be assigned a unique digital identity to help them with such tasks as registering with a new GP.
The details have yet to be finalised but it is understood that legislation could be amended to remove the need for landlords to check tenants’ immigration documents. Witnesses would no longer have to attend signings on property deals in person, and bar owners would be able to digitally verify drinkers’ ages.
What happens to all my data? Who has access to it? Who can they share it with? What can they do with it?
I definitely dont want mandatory ID cards. I can see benefits in replacing my NHS number, NI number, passport number, driving licence number, govt gateway numbers with a single number. If we are just adding yet another number it is bonkers.
My university experienced a “cyber attack” 5 days ago and pretty much all systems are STILL down with no end in sight. Campus is locked down whilst they “deal with it”.
I’m starting to have serious concerns about their ability to deliver a distance learning curriculum...
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
What do you think of Swinney's latest, greatest wheeze that the answer to the lack of time to study for the exams is to restrict the scope of the syllabus for this year?
It seems to me that we risk one set of devalued results being followed by another.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
Seriously?
What Pulpstar is suggesting is that all 4 education ministers overruled their civil servants. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
What you're suggesting is that 3 education ministers gave the same advice which was followed while a 4th one was given completely different advice that he by an entirely unrelated coincidence he overruled that just happened to bring his decision making in line with the advice the other education ministers received. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
Occam's razor is that they were all advised to do what they did and they all did it.
Assuming, if I may, that your '3 ministers gave the same advice' was intended to be '3 ministers were given the same advice' ...
Is it not possible that 3 agencies made a different recommendation from the English one, so that their ministers had no need to overrule them, because the recommended solution was also the politically easier (in some respects) one?
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
States / constituencies elect MPs
The MPs caucus together and select a head of the executive branch
What’s fundamentally different?
What's fundamentally different is the winner-takes-all nature of the Electoral College at a statewide level. Take Florida 2000 as a famous example. Even discarding the hanging chads issues, there were millions of votes for both candidates but only a few hundred lead for Bush and the result was that all 25 Electoral College votes went to Bush. A few hundred votes the other way and all 25 would have switched to Gore.
The UK doesn't switch MPs en bloc like that. Since the 1948 Representation of the People Act each constituency in the United Kingdom is only worth a single MP. That is completely different to the US system.
As an example if we were to operate like the USA then take Lancashire. Lancashire has 16 constituencies which have gone 11 to the Tories, 4 to Labour and 1 to The Speaker. Under the US system it would be 16 to the Tories. In 2005 Labour won 12 of 15, with the Tories getting 3, while in 2010 the Tories won 9, Labour 6 and LDs 1. In the US system it would have been 2005 Labour 15, Tories 0; in 2010 Tories 16, Labour 0.
That's a big difference.
I've had a quick look at the past 4 elections. If we'd voted by region as Electoral College votes, we'd have had:
2019: Con 356, Lab 217, SNP 59, DUP 18 votes. Con win 2017: Con 302, Lab 271, SNP 59, DUP 18. No winner; vote goes "to the house" and voted on by State Delegations. Con have 5, Lab have 5, SNP have 1, DUP have 1. House likely split; there'll be a lot of voting until either the SNP buckle and put the Tories in (unlikely!) or the DUP get bought off by Labour. Likely Corbyn Government. 2015: Exactly the same as 2017. 2010: Con 302, Lab 330, Sinn Fein 18. Gordon Brown wins.
Prior to that, Labour did better, so I can't see a Tory Government under Regional Electoral College voting until 1992 at the closest, and I wouldn't be surprised if they still lost there. Labour's grip on the Electoral Votes of Scotland, Wales, the NE, NW, London, and Yorkshire and Humberside prior to that means they've got 330 EVs in the bag. Since losing Scotland's EVs to the SNP, that's been hit, but that's not helpful to the Tories. The 2019 election, instead of being a Tory landslide, came down to a 4% gap in Yorkshire & Humberside. A tiny slip there puts Labour back into Downing Street.
Except if we were voting on EC college lines we would be voting by county not on regional lines, Essex and Kent and Yorkshire for example have bigger populations than some US states.
In the US the regions are the West, South, North East and Midwest, which split 50-50 in 2016 between Trump and Hillary even though Trump won a big EC margin statewide.
At GE19 the Tories won 40 counties, Labour won just 6.
I would be curious to see historical winner takes all election results for the UK Parliament on a County basis. I suspect it would be even more lopsided than the actual results but it might not be.
Joe Kennedy's political career isn't dead but I think today's defeat probably rules him out from running for the presidency this side of 2040.
The state AG slot might open up in a couple of years' time. If he's in it for the long run, then he might go for that. What's for sure is that he can no longer be a young man in a hurry...
In any event, I'm banking on the other half of this recent prediction proving equally dud. If Joe Kennedy III wins the Massachusetts Senate race this year and Trump is re elected he becomes the likely next President in 2024 in my view.
Kennedy will probably be secretly hoping Markey loses the general election in November now as the Republicans will hammer Markey on the fact it was the far left and AOC that got him renominated (Kennedy can then say he was more electable) and of course if Biden loses and Kennedy wins statewide office pre 2024 he would still be a contender in 2024. When Ted Kennedy lost the primaries to Carter in 1980 it is rumoured the Kennedys even voted for Reagan in the fall.
If however Biden wins then yes Biden or Harris would likely be the Democratic ticket until at least 2028, maybe even 2032
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
What do you think of Swinney's latest, greatest wheeze that the answer to the lack of time to study for the exams is to restrict the scope of the syllabus for this year?
It seems to me that we risk one set of devalued results being followed by another.
'Devalued' in the rather different sense of an emergency syllabus. But what else can be done? Postpone? or reduce makrs required for each grade?
I imagine also there are issues over things like practical classes. I'm not Ydoethur (whos undfortunately temporarily no longer with us on PB) but short of building more schools and, more immediately, the staff required ...
Bozo’s Quarantine Hokey Cokey continues as Ministers are considering reimposing quarantine measures for those arriving in the UK from Portugal as coronavirus cases rise, sources have told the BBC.
A change this Thursday would be the fifth affecting travellers and travel companies to Portugal since this whole sorry farce commenced.
Well your choices are:
A) no restrictions blanket ban C) flexible restrictions which change as the facts change
C) seems like a logical approach to me
Why is your data better than the people reviewing the information and making the decision on behalf of the government?
I'm with Charles on this one. Everyone knows that travelling abroad at the moment carries the risk of restrictions changing and at short notice. If you are not prepared to take the risk that you might need to isolate at the end of the trip, or worse cut the trip short, you should not be undertaking foreign travel, not at the moment.
Exactly. I have absolutely zero sympathy for those caught by a change in the regulations. They have taken a very obvious gamble and lost. Tough. The only reasonable alternative is the blanket ban (by which I mean no travel without quarantine) which would be simpler to administer.
Agree, but it would be useful if the govt released its logic for its decisions. Similarly for the internal lockdown decisions. Today's Manchester decisions seem completely irrational. Presumably there are sensible reasons but who knows. It is also in the government's interest as currently they look incompetent.
I don't think that's possible in real time. The reason is that the decision making will be complicated. It won't be a simple metric with a pass or fail threshold.
Not in real time though. Local Authorities have asked for an explanation and not got one, so are now giving counter advice and advising residents of Bolton and Trafford to keep locked down. A very brief explanation would resolve the confusion and the chaos that it has been caused. You don't at this stage need tables and formulae, just the reasoning.
What do you think of Swinney's latest, greatest wheeze that the answer to the lack of time to study for the exams is to restrict the scope of the syllabus for this year?
It seems to me that we risk one set of devalued results being followed by another.
Strikes me as a good idea actually. Depth of knowledge rather than breadth should be tested if learning time has been curtailed.
Currently on holiday in Wales. Beautiful day yesterday, this morning looks like rain rain rain and more rain. Best be better tomorrow visiting Beaumaris Castle and a boat trip to Puffin Island booked. Trip to Dublin Friday?
You're supposed to restrict your movements for 14 days after arriving in Ireland from GB.
Are you?
Looks like that trip will be not going ahead. Through my passport in at last minute just in case. Any good tips for something else to do for a single traveller witj mobility issues in Anglesey?
My 14 day period ended some time ago and I haven't left County Cork since then.
Bozo’s Quarantine Hokey Cokey continues as Ministers are considering reimposing quarantine measures for those arriving in the UK from Portugal as coronavirus cases rise, sources have told the BBC.
A change this Thursday would be the fifth affecting travellers and travel companies to Portugal since this whole sorry farce commenced.
Well your choices are:
A) no restrictions blanket ban C) flexible restrictions which change as the facts change
C) seems like a logical approach to me
Why is your data better than the people reviewing the information and making the decision on behalf of the government?
I'm with Charles on this one. Everyone knows that travelling abroad at the moment carries the risk of restrictions changing and at short notice. If you are not prepared to take the risk that you might need to isolate at the end of the trip, or worse cut the trip short, you should not be undertaking foreign travel, not at the moment.
Exactly. I have absolutely zero sympathy for those caught by a change in the regulations. They have taken a very obvious gamble and lost. Tough. The only reasonable alternative is the blanket ban (by which I mean no travel without quarantine) which would be simpler to administer.
Agree, but it would be useful if the govt released its logic for its decisions. Similarly for the internal lockdown decisions. Today's Manchester decisions seem completely irrational. Presumably there are sensible reasons but who knows. It is also in the government's interest as currently they look incompetent.
I am equally bewildered by the new restrictions in Glasgow. I mean, as a general proposition shutting down large parts of Glasgow seems a step forward but the rationale for these particular restrictions escape me.
It does help Nicola play mother of the nation once again I suppose but once again jobs will be lost.
It is only in people's houses so not shutting down anything , which is whole point of limiting it.
Quite frankly it's a cheek for them to ask season ticket holders to hand over money without knowing if they'll be getting a ticket. I certainly won't be doing so.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
You don't think that the advice that they all received might have been co-ordinated and cross checked with the officials elsewhere influencing the decision? Ok. It's a view.
Quite possible. There is certainly sensible liaison happening at a lower level within the Civil Service [ edit] and I magine also between the quangoes (partly for professional reasons). But we don't know, do we? It's another hidden assumption being made, beside the one which Pulpstar identifies.
Aug 21-25, 2020 (No 538 rating) Opinium Biden 56% Trump 41%
Is there a bit of an inconsistency between the betting on the House and on the presidency when you look at the polling and the odds?
According to oddschecker you can get 4-1 on the Republicans winning a majority in the House. 538 has the Dems 7.2% ahead in the generic congressional polling average, and they probably need to win by at least 5% (?) to retain majority (because of inefficient vote and gerrymandering). So you can get 4-1 on the Democrats getting at least 2% less in November for the House than in current polling.
538 has Biden 7.3% in the national polling average. He probably needs to win by at least 2% in order to win the EC. So you can get evens on the Democrat getting at least 5% less in November for the presidency than in current polling.
I realise these are different races, but that seems to be a massive difference, and either one or both of the 4-1 on Republicans in the House, or Evens for Biden, has got to be value?
Trump won very narrowly in 2016, and Republicans won the House 241 to 194.
Bozo’s Quarantine Hokey Cokey continues as Ministers are considering reimposing quarantine measures for those arriving in the UK from Portugal as coronavirus cases rise, sources have told the BBC.
A change this Thursday would be the fifth affecting travellers and travel companies to Portugal since this whole sorry farce commenced.
Well your choices are:
A) no restrictions blanket ban C) flexible restrictions which change as the facts change
C) seems like a logical approach to me
Why is your data better than the people reviewing the information and making the decision on behalf of the government?
I'm with Charles on this one. Everyone knows that travelling abroad at the moment carries the risk of restrictions changing and at short notice. If you are not prepared to take the risk that you might need to isolate at the end of the trip, or worse cut the trip short, you should not be undertaking foreign travel, not at the moment.
Exactly. I have absolutely zero sympathy for those caught by a change in the regulations. They have taken a very obvious gamble and lost. Tough. The only reasonable alternative is the blanket ban (by which I mean no travel without quarantine) which would be simpler to administer.
Agree, but it would be useful if the govt released its logic for its decisions. Similarly for the internal lockdown decisions. Today's Manchester decisions seem completely irrational. Presumably there are sensible reasons but who knows. It is also in the government's interest as currently they look incompetent.
I am equally bewildered by the new restrictions in Glasgow. I mean, as a general proposition shutting down large parts of Glasgow seems a step forward but the rationale for these particular restrictions escape me.
It does help Nicola play mother of the nation once again I suppose but once again jobs will be lost.
It is only in people's houses so not shutting down anything , which is whole point of limiting it.
4 education ministers all making the same easier decision (Holding exams would have been hard) as a political choice isn't vanishingly unlikely at all.
Absolutely right.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
What do you think of Swinney's latest, greatest wheeze that the answer to the lack of time to study for the exams is to restrict the scope of the syllabus for this year?
It seems to me that we risk one set of devalued results being followed by another.
'Devalued' in the rather different sense of an emergency syllabus. But what else can be done? Postpone? or reduce makrs required for each grade?
I imagine also there are issues over things like practical classes. I'm not Ydoethur (whos undfortunately temporarily no longer with us on PB) but short of building more schools and, more immediately, the staff required ...
It recognises the reality that for the vast bulk of kids the remote learning experience of last term was something that existed on paper only and of no utility. It assumes that a significant number of schools are going to have disrupted education this year with temporary shut downs. That might be right but it might not.
This is not an easy one but I think that it is more of an issue for those on 2 year courses such at National 5s than it is for those on a 1 year course such as the Highers or Advanced Highers. Whilst some kids may have to backfill on the material that they were supposed to have been taught for Nat5 to do the Higher many kids do manage straight highers in one year without that help.
I think on balance I wouldn't have done this but I do accept its not easy.
Kennedy will probably be secretly hoping Markey loses the general election in November now
There's unlikely and then there's the Democrats losing Massachusetts unlikely.
Not so unlikely, remember Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's vacant Senate Seat in Massachussetts in 2010 52% to 47% for Democrat Martha Coakley in a huge upset.
If you look at the map the areas Brown won included a lot of the working class areas which Kennedy won, while Coakley's areas all voted for Markey yesterday.
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
I agree. The electoral college is stupid. I don't know anybody who would set it up as it is now if they were starting from scratch.
Our electoral system is not perfect either, as constituencies are not equal-sized. The Outer Hebridies has 21k and the Isle of Wight has 105k. So an OH vote is worth 5x what an Isle of Wight vote is worth.
But Wyoming has one EC vote per 190k people while CA has one per 1.4m, a 7x disparity. So our system is better, from tha point of view.
If we finally get around to eqalising constituency sizes, of course, that's another matter.
The US system has varying EC votes all the way through, for example, you could compare Texas vs. Rhode Island or Florida vs. South Dakota
Once our new boundaries are put in place, you should have 645 constituencies all within a narrow range, and then 5 undersized constituencies due to being islands
The EC system would be better if it wasn't 'winner takes all', and the EC votes were split according to the votes cast. In the last list HYUFD posted the two main candidates were within a percentage point of each other in most cases; in only the last two was there what one might describe as a clear lead for one or the other, yet in each case all the EC votes were cast one way or the other.
The best argument I've heard for the EC, or at any rate for some state-based system, is what happens if there's a very close result. If it's in the EC, then the recount chaos is limited to one or two states, as in 2000.
But can you imagine the nationwide chaos and paralysis if the candidates were within a couple of thousand votes of each other nationwide? Each party would look for tiny anomalies and claim that because a few posters showed the wrong opening times for a polling station in Rhode Island or Alaska, the other side has stolen the election.
National chaos for months or years.
The only time it was less than half a million in the last 100 years was 1960 when Kennedy won by 113 thousand
ONS death figures out for week ending 21st August 2020. Deaths well above average, but increase not caused by Covid which represented just 1.4% of deaths. It is so clear that the obsession with Covid is stopping treatment for all the other illnesses that kill people.
Thank you Doctor.
Rather than try and be clever why don't you come up with a reason that death figures are now well above average when Covid deaths are just 1.4% of the total.
Yes, but having managed to get Covid under control at the moment proves that there’s no need to have Covid under control.
I think that’s the rationale.
Nearly 7 times as many people died in the week ending 21/8/2020 of flu/influenza than died of Covid.
My rationale is to deal with the obvious backlog of people who are not being treated and are dying. Thats the reason for the excess deaths. Surgeries are remaining shut due to a disease that amounted to 1.4% of deaths.
Aug 21-25, 2020 (No 538 rating) Opinium Biden 56% Trump 41%
Is there a bit of an inconsistency between the betting on the House and on the presidency when you look at the polling and the odds?
According to oddschecker you can get 4-1 on the Republicans winning a majority in the House. 538 has the Dems 7.2% ahead in the generic congressional polling average, and they probably need to win by at least 5% (?) to retain majority (because of inefficient vote and gerrymandering). So you can get 4-1 on the Democrats getting at least 2% less in November for the House than in current polling.
538 has Biden 7.3% in the national polling average. He probably needs to win by at least 2% in order to win the EC. So you can get evens on the Democrat getting at least 5% less in November for the presidency than in current polling.
I realise these are different races, but that seems to be a massive difference, and either one or both of the 4-1 on Republicans in the House, or Evens for Biden, has got to be value?
Trump won very narrowly in 2016, and Republicans won the House 241 to 194.
Yeah, I was looking at this yesterday. The 2016 and 2018 generic Congresional ballot polling was pretty good. In 2016 the GOP won 48%-to-49.1% in voting whilst Trump only got 46.1%.
In 2016 the GOP Congressional ballot polling stage a huge rally from mid October to the finish. Ther low points was a polling average of sub 40%. The polling today is close to where we were this time in 2016 (2016: 47.0/42.8 vs 2020: 47.8/41.8)
So basically I don't know what to make of the current situation Congress wise
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
I agree. The electoral college is stupid. I don't know anybody who would set it up as it is now if they were starting from scratch.
Our electoral system is not perfect either, as constituencies are not equal-sized. The Outer Hebridies has 21k and the Isle of Wight has 105k. So an OH vote is worth 5x what an Isle of Wight vote is worth.
But Wyoming has one EC vote per 190k people while CA has one per 1.4m, a 7x disparity. So our system is better, from tha point of view.
If we finally get around to eqalising constituency sizes, of course, that's another matter.
The US system has varying EC votes all the way through, for example, you could compare Texas vs. Rhode Island or Florida vs. South Dakota
Once our new boundaries are put in place, you should have 645 constituencies all within a narrow range, and then 5 undersized constituencies due to being islands
The EC system would be better if it wasn't 'winner takes all', and the EC votes were split according to the votes cast. In the last list HYUFD posted the two main candidates were within a percentage point of each other in most cases; in only the last two was there what one might describe as a clear lead for one or the other, yet in each case all the EC votes were cast one way or the other.
The best argument I've heard for the EC, or at any rate for some state-based system, is what happens if there's a very close result. If it's in the EC, then the recount chaos is limited to one or two states, as in 2000.
But can you imagine the nationwide chaos and paralysis if the candidates were within a couple of thousand votes of each other nationwide? Each party would look for tiny anomalies and claim that because a few posters showed the wrong opening times for a polling station in Rhode Island or Alaska, the other side has stolen the election.
National chaos for months or years.
The only time it was less than half a million in the last 100 years was 1960 when Kennedy won by 113 thousand
Yes, and claims that that election was stolen have resonated ever since.
Big Dom believes he can fix procurement at the MoD. Procurement is a shit show so actually an excellent target for Big Dom. However his blog writings on the subject imply he has fuck all knowledge about what the actual problems are and how to fix them.
Aug 21-25, 2020 (No 538 rating) Opinium Biden 56% Trump 41%
Is there a bit of an inconsistency between the betting on the House and on the presidency when you look at the polling and the odds?
According to oddschecker you can get 4-1 on the Republicans winning a majority in the House. 538 has the Dems 7.2% ahead in the generic congressional polling average, and they probably need to win by at least 5% (?) to retain majority (because of inefficient vote and gerrymandering). So you can get 4-1 on the Democrats getting at least 2% less in November for the House than in current polling.
538 has Biden 7.3% in the national polling average. He probably needs to win by at least 2% in order to win the EC. So you can get evens on the Democrat getting at least 5% less in November for the presidency than in current polling.
I realise these are different races, but that seems to be a massive difference, and either one or both of the 4-1 on Republicans in the House, or Evens for Biden, has got to be value?
Trump won very narrowly in 2016, and Republicans won the House 241 to 194.
Very good tip, although stake to return equal amounts rather staking equal amounts of stake or you will likely just end up getting your money back when Biden wins.
This just up on the Graun. Interesting comment at the end - rather odd as SLAB Isn't separate from UKLabour anyway (hence the legal fiddle over its name on the ballot papers), but it's all about the optics I suppose.
"One source said their concerns were shared by the UK party, but Sir Keir Starmer, the UK leader, felt unable to intervene in an internal matter for the Scottish party. That would be seen as proof it was controlled by London, thus playing into Sturgeon’s hands."
Bozo’s Quarantine Hokey Cokey continues as Ministers are considering reimposing quarantine measures for those arriving in the UK from Portugal as coronavirus cases rise, sources have told the BBC.
A change this Thursday would be the fifth affecting travellers and travel companies to Portugal since this whole sorry farce commenced.
Well your choices are:
A) no restrictions blanket ban C) flexible restrictions which change as the facts change
C) seems like a logical approach to me
Why is your data better than the people reviewing the information and making the decision on behalf of the government?
I'm with Charles on this one. Everyone knows that travelling abroad at the moment carries the risk of restrictions changing and at short notice. If you are not prepared to take the risk that you might need to isolate at the end of the trip, or worse cut the trip short, you should not be undertaking foreign travel, not at the moment.
Exactly. I have absolutely zero sympathy for those caught by a change in the regulations. They have taken a very obvious gamble and lost. Tough. The only reasonable alternative is the blanket ban (by which I mean no travel without quarantine) which would be simpler to administer.
Agree, but it would be useful if the govt released its logic for its decisions. Similarly for the internal lockdown decisions. Today's Manchester decisions seem completely irrational. Presumably there are sensible reasons but who knows. It is also in the government's interest as currently they look incompetent.
I am equally bewildered by the new restrictions in Glasgow. I mean, as a general proposition shutting down large parts of Glasgow seems a step forward but the rationale for these particular restrictions escape me.
It does help Nicola play mother of the nation once again I suppose but once again jobs will be lost.
It is only in people's houses so not shutting down anything , which is whole point of limiting it.
Which by remarkable coincidence are the same reasons the same decision was made for the North West.
Not a criticism it is probably the right move for both though I'm guessing when Sturgeon does the same as Boris it results in fewer snide remarks than when it is the other way around.
Polls moving well for Trump in the critical states. Forget the national vote, its the individual states, no good Biden getting 65 - 70% in New York etc, Trump seems to be ahead in the marginal areas, which won him the election last time. It is not just one pollster now, its becoming a steady drift. Lets be fair Biden does not look the ticket really, does he, very staid, no inspiratriuon for the young to go out and vote.Over the past week seems as if Trump has picked up the undecided, presumably the violence in Wisconsin. The Oregon sitiation died not seem to have any impact on the national situation. 4 more years, God help us.
Big Dom believes he can fix procurement at the MoD. Procurement is a shit show so actually an excellent target for Big Dom. However his blog writings on the subject imply he has fuck all knowledge about what the actual problems are and how to fix them.
The worry is that he will make the situation worse because he is a clueless idiot and the taxpayer will be out another few billion on boats that won't ever sail or planes that won't ever fly.
Aug 21-25, 2020 (No 538 rating) Opinium Biden 56% Trump 41%
Is there a bit of an inconsistency between the betting on the House and on the presidency when you look at the polling and the odds?
According to oddschecker you can get 4-1 on the Republicans winning a majority in the House. 538 has the Dems 7.2% ahead in the generic congressional polling average, and they probably need to win by at least 5% (?) to retain majority (because of inefficient vote and gerrymandering). So you can get 4-1 on the Democrats getting at least 2% less in November for the House than in current polling.
538 has Biden 7.3% in the national polling average. He probably needs to win by at least 2% in order to win the EC. So you can get evens on the Democrat getting at least 5% less in November for the presidency than in current polling.
I realise these are different races, but that seems to be a massive difference, and either one or both of the 4-1 on Republicans in the House, or Evens for Biden, has got to be value?
Trump won very narrowly in 2016, and Republicans won the House 241 to 194.
Yeah, I was looking at this yesterday. The 2016 and 2018 generic Congresional ballot polling was pretty good. In 2016 the GOP won 48%-to-49.1% in voting whilst Trump only got 46.1%.
In 2016 the GOP Congressional ballot polling stage a huge rally from mid October to the finish. Ther low points was a polling average of sub 40%. The polling today is close to where we were this time in 2016 (2016: 47.0/42.8 vs 2020: 47.8/41.8)
So basically I don't know what to make of the current situation Congress wise
Yes a simplistic view would be: House Republicans did better in terms of national vote margin in 2016 than Trump did. Republicans also have a bigger advantage in the House in terms of how much they can lose the national vote by and still win. Plus their current polling deficit is almost exactly the same in both congress and presidency polls.
Therefore if Trump wins the presidency, Republicans are likely to win the House. They might win the House if he narrowly loses.
There must be something wrong with this logic but I don't know what it is. It seems to be the idea that Trump will persuade people to vote for him between now and the election, but those people won't be persuaded to vote for Republican House candidates. But the generic congressional polls seem to have much higher Don't Know/Third Party shares than the presidential polls.
Comments
Some years ago, a friend in the Civil Service blotted his copybook, by showing a minister a report on a certain subject.
The report was written by a noted researcher on the area in question, in a peer reviewed journal.
The reason he blotted his copybook was that the report directly showed that the "departmental policy" agreed by the mandarins on the area in question was, to use a technical term, bollocks.
I would strongly support a policy to drive up the percentage given globally by all the wealthy countries but until that happens we can be in the pack. Getting the poorest in the world to $2 a day income would make a massive difference to global stability and in turn the global economy but the UK needs to stop pretending it can do it on its own, or with a handful of partner countries.
Aug 28-31, 2020
A Suffolk University
Biden 50%
Trump 43%
Aug 26-30, 2020
A+ Selzer & Co.
Biden 49%
Trump 41%
Aug 21-25, 2020
(No 538 rating) Opinium
Biden 56%
Trump 41%
https://twitter.com/petermacmahon/status/1301065768365445125
I don't dispute your assertion that people might be dying unnecessarily of non-Covid diseases due to Covid. What I do dispute is your conspiracy theories that Covid is merely a mirage to be ignored.
I find your Covid-19 related posts disturbing.
My daughter returned to school today. My youngest starts for the first time on Friday. That is what really matters to Education now - this twisted obsession on the dumped algorithm still going on in the week that millions are returning to school is strange to say the least.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1301075131456983045/photo/1
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/06/delingpole-boris-unleashes-green-hell-on-post-brexit-britain/
I think they've always regarded Boris a pretender and that their man Nigel should be wearing the crown. I doubt it will get much better to be honest.
Seriously? There is unquestionably a cancer time bomb of undiagnosed tumours which have developed past the operable stage during lockdown. I suspect many other conditions that might have been usefully regulated (blood pressure/statins) etc have been neglected too. The worrying thing is that this is ongoing.
Here it is the aggregate that matters to be frank. Yes in one scenario some may do better and others do worse - while in another scenario others may do better and others again do worse. But neither scenario is objectively the right one.
If he's in it for the long run, then he might go for that. What's for sure is that he can no longer be a young man in a hurry...
In any event, I'm banking on the other half of this recent prediction proving equally dud.
If Joe Kennedy III wins the Massachusetts Senate race this year and Trump is re elected he becomes the likely next President in 2024 in my view.
https://www.slebech.co.uk/
Tice Tice baby
If Covid was the cause of these excess daeths we would back in full lockdown.
Beacuse these deaths are caused by dieseases/illnesses we are used to no one cares and nothing is being done about it.
Later on when it is clear that all had done the same thing, all have stayed and frankly the news story in education is the return to school? Yes absolutely it is bizarre.
If there were issues with back to school right now there isn't the slightest chance people would still be talking about the exams. That there isn't is a good thing - but lets not say that lets harp on about last months stories instead. Its pathetic.
2019: Con 356, Lab 217, SNP 59, DUP 18 votes. Con win
2017: Con 302, Lab 271, SNP 59, DUP 18. No winner; vote goes "to the house" and voted on by State Delegations. Con have 5, Lab have 5, SNP have 1, DUP have 1. House likely split; there'll be a lot of voting until either the SNP buckle and put the Tories in (unlikely!) or the DUP get bought off by Labour. Likely Corbyn Government.
2015: Exactly the same as 2017.
2010: Con 302, Lab 330, Sinn Fein 18. Gordon Brown wins.
Prior to that, Labour did better, so I can't see a Tory Government under Regional Electoral College voting until 1992 at the closest, and I wouldn't be surprised if they still lost there. Labour's grip on the Electoral Votes of Scotland, Wales, the NE, NW, London, and Yorkshire and Humberside prior to that means they've got 330 EVs in the bag. Since losing Scotland's EVs to the SNP, that's been hit, but that's not helpful to the Tories. The 2019 election, instead of being a Tory landslide, came down to a 4% gap in Yorkshire & Humberside. A tiny slip there puts Labour back into Downing Street.
I imagine we might hear about those that improve, in time.
What happens to all my data? Who has access to it? Who can they share it with? What can they do with it?
In the next few months we are going to have a significant uptick in Covid infections as students gather and do what students do. We have a major issue with when the exams are going to be sat this year, what the extent of the syllabus is going to be and how the grade inflation is going to be dealt with. We need someone competent to deal with this.
Adding 3 hospital ships would denude the entire T45 fleet or both carriers of crew. The RN don't want them anyway as rules of warfare greatly limit their usage. They would prefer one or more PCRS (Primary Casualty Receiving Ships) which have much more military utility. RFA Argus is the current PCRS (and Aviation Training Ship) but the tories are going to scrap that in 2024 with no replacement.
If you think that the Tories are represented by people who stood against the Tories at an election . . . that says more about you than me.
I think that’s the rationale.
4 nights for £108 though so can't complain.
First time away from Mrs BJ since she became a Paraplegic in 2016.
Going away again with her at the end of the month if we can get the local Morecambe Bay NHS to commit to doing what they did last time we visited the specialist accommodation. (4 beds 3 overbed hoists).
If NHS won't provide early morning bowel care we will have to cancel. Never crossed our minds when we booked that Covid might mean they won't.
Also they might have had different advice from their civil servants and the exams agencies than what Mr W got from the English ones.
Looks like that trip will be not going ahead. Through my passport in at last minute just in case. Any good tips for something else to do for a single traveller witj mobility issues in Anglesey?
What Pulpstar is suggesting is that all 4 education ministers overruled their civil servants. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
What you're suggesting is that 3 education ministers gave the same advice which was followed while a 4th one was given completely different advice that he by an entirely unrelated coincidence he overruled that just happened to bring his decision making in line with the advice the other education ministers received. Seems vanishingly unlikely.
Occam's razor is that they were all advised to do what they did and they all did it.
But can you imagine the nationwide chaos and paralysis if the candidates were within a couple of thousand votes of each other nationwide? Each party would look for tiny anomalies and claim that because a few posters showed the wrong opening times for a polling station in Rhode Island or Alaska, the other side has stolen the election.
National chaos for months or years.
In the US the regions are the West, South, North East and Midwest, which split 50-50 in 2016 between Trump and Hillary even though Trump won a big EC margin statewide.
At GE19 the Tories won 40 counties, Labour won just 6.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
27-Aug-10 - 8,635
26-Aug-11 - 8,466
24-Aug-12 - 8,977
23-Aug-13 - 8,579
22-Aug-14 - 8,769
21-Aug-15 - 9,121
26-Aug-16 - 9,319
25-Aug-17 - 9,382
24-Aug-18 - 8,978
23-Aug-19 - 8,994
21-Aug-20 - 9,631
And the last few weeks:
10-Jul-20 - 8,690
17-Jul-20 - 8,823
24-Jul-20 - 8,891
31-Jul-20 - 8,946
07-Aug-20 - 8,945
14-Aug-20 - 9,392
21-Aug-20 - 9,631
It could be heat, but it would need to have had a delayed effect into the week ending 21 August as that week was not hot.
I’m starting to have serious concerns about their ability to deliver a distance learning curriculum...
It seems to me that we risk one set of devalued results being followed by another.
Is it not possible that 3 agencies made a different recommendation from the English one, so that their ministers had no need to overrule them, because the recommended solution was also the politically easier (in some respects) one?
If however Biden wins then yes Biden or Harris would likely be the Democratic ticket until at least 2028, maybe even 2032
I imagine also there are issues over things like practical classes. I'm not Ydoethur (whos undfortunately temporarily no longer with us on PB) but short of building more schools and, more immediately, the staff required ...
The sea zoo is open.
https://www.angleseyseazoo.co.uk/
As is Dylan's in Menai Bridge.
https://www.dylansrestaurant.co.uk/menus
https://www.arsenal.com/news/202021-season-tickets-and-reduced-capacity-games
https://www.arsenal.com/news/emirates-stadium-code-conduct
Quite frankly it's a cheek for them to ask season ticket holders to hand over money without knowing if they'll be getting a ticket. I certainly won't be doing so.
https://www.arsenal.com/sites/default/files/documents/Gold Ballot FAQs_1.pdf
Arsenal reckon between 15% and 25% of capacity.
According to oddschecker you can get 4-1 on the Republicans winning a majority in the House. 538 has the Dems 7.2% ahead in the generic congressional polling average, and they probably need to win by at least 5% (?) to retain majority (because of inefficient vote and gerrymandering). So you can get 4-1 on the Democrats getting at least 2% less in November for the House than in current polling.
538 has Biden 7.3% in the national polling average. He probably needs to win by at least 2% in order to win the EC. So you can get evens on the Democrat getting at least 5% less in November for the presidency than in current polling.
I realise these are different races, but that seems to be a massive difference, and either one or both of the 4-1 on Republicans in the House, or Evens for Biden, has got to be value?
Trump won very narrowly in 2016, and Republicans won the House 241 to 194.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1301059332675637248?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1301059332675637248|twgr^&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/02/uk-coronavirus-live-local-lockdowns-boris-johnson-pmqs
This is not an easy one but I think that it is more of an issue for those on 2 year courses such at National 5s than it is for those on a 1 year course such as the Highers or Advanced Highers. Whilst some kids may have to backfill on the material that they were supposed to have been taught for Nat5 to do the Higher many kids do manage straight highers in one year without that help.
I think on balance I wouldn't have done this but I do accept its not easy.
If you look at the map the areas Brown won included a lot of the working class areas which Kennedy won, while Coakley's areas all voted for Markey yesterday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
Republican candidate Kevin O'Connor will now hammer Markey with attack ads on his links to AOC and the far left
https://twitter.com/TechnoGuido/status/1301105918994771968
My rationale is to deal with the obvious backlog of people who are not being treated and are dying. Thats the reason for the excess deaths. Surgeries are remaining shut due to a disease that amounted to 1.4% of deaths.
In 2016 the GOP Congressional ballot polling stage a huge rally from mid October to the finish. Ther low points was a polling average of sub 40%. The polling today is close to where we were this time in 2016 (2016: 47.0/42.8 vs 2020: 47.8/41.8)
So basically I don't know what to make of the current situation Congress wise
This just up on the Graun. Interesting comment at the end - rather odd as SLAB Isn't separate from UKLabour anyway (hence the legal fiddle over its name on the ballot papers), but it's all about the optics I suppose.
"One source said their concerns were shared by the UK party, but Sir Keir Starmer, the UK leader, felt unable to intervene in an internal matter for the Scottish party. That would be seen as proof it was controlled by London, thus playing into Sturgeon’s hands."
Not a criticism it is probably the right move for both though I'm guessing when Sturgeon does the same as Boris it results in fewer snide remarks than when it is the other way around.
House Republicans did better in terms of national vote margin in 2016 than Trump did. Republicans also have a bigger advantage in the House in terms of how much they can lose the national vote by and still win. Plus their current polling deficit is almost exactly the same in both congress and presidency polls.
Therefore if Trump wins the presidency, Republicans are likely to win the House. They might win the House if he narrowly loses.
There must be something wrong with this logic but I don't know what it is. It seems to be the idea that Trump will persuade people to vote for him between now and the election, but those people won't be persuaded to vote for Republican House candidates. But the generic congressional polls seem to have much higher Don't Know/Third Party shares than the presidential polls.
What am I missing?