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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s not having a very good day, but will it impact the ele
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s not having a very good day, but will it impact the election result? I’m not so sure
Judge: Manhattan DA can get Trump’s tax records from Mazars. There may be an appeal, which means a little delay, but it’s all over except the shouting. Trump’s taxes will be in the hands of prosecutors either shortly before or after the election. https://t.co/kj5kC89jUm
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https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/898867137414025216
1. Biden is not Clinton
2, The anti trump vote is currently highly motivated, beyond 2016
3. A larger slice of the republican & republican leaning independents are not as motivated this time
It is the Democrats to lose and I am not sure Trump can do anything (legally anyway). Its the Democrats shooting themselves that would change it
Ignoring yet more political ructions and proceeding to good news (and I dare say this has been discussed already, but like I said it's good news so I make no apology for being repetitious,) the number of new Covid cases detected by test in the UK appears to have levelled off, and the number of patients left in hospital continues to decline.
The hospital numbers are down by another 9% in a week, at which rate the total should be down below 800 by next Thursday. The indications from the England-only data, which are more up-to-date than the whole of UK figures, suggest that this outcome is highly probable.
With much of continental Europe in panic flap mode, we must continue to try to understand what's going right here, because it's probably some combination of factors and it most likely has nothing to do with the actions of our blundering Government (or, at any rate, if it does then the positive effect will have been arrived at by chance.)
I'm not picking up through the media any distress signals emanating from Scandinavia, either. Did these countries open the nightclubs, and do they have lots of people working from home?
@britainelects
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2h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (+1)
LAB: 37% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 4% (+1)
via @RedfieldWilton
, 19 Aug
Chgs. w/ 12 Aug
I've posted this again as it has attracted so little comment unlike other polling companies which regularly get promoted as thread headers. Funny that.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296484002761711619?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296300716013899776?s=19
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296295121688895490?s=19
The man is a menace.
Although it could just be MoE.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/P7ON8
Why must an independent Scotland join NATO in order for you to support mutually support their defence? Why isn’t just a traditional military alliance between rUK and iScotland enough?
The Scots can simply declare themselves neutral and sponge off us. It would save them a bloody fortune.
Trump has a lot of third party voters available to him to "come home", it is why he is is not out of it and why in general this will be a hard to poll election.
Redfield suggests YouGov is an outlier
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_River_Forth
2.4, 3.5, 10, 7.7, 1.5
Obama was an outstanding campaigner.
The culture wars are a massive beartrap for them.
There's what ifs and then there's utter nonsense.
The German armed forces didn't have the material to cross the English Channel ina remotely realistic manner, now you want them sailing from Norway?
Any alternative history of an independent Scotland and Wales would have altered European Geopolitics so much that the Thirties may have proceded very differently. We would not have had an Empire for example.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/20/a-cup-of-tea-then-screams-of-agony-how-alexei-navalny-was-left-fighting-for-his-life
... Over the next few hours, the scenes at Omsk hospital number one were ghoulishly awful. According to Yarmysh, medical staff initially acknowledged that Navalny had probably been poisoned. Soon, however, police turned up, flooding the corridor outside the patient’s room. After that the doctors were less forthcoming. They were seemingly terrified of speaking out.
Anatoly Kalinichenko, the hospital’s deputy chief physician, told reporters that poisoning was one scenario among many. Meanwhile, Russian state media floated alternative versions of what might have happened. It suggested Navalny had drunk too much the previous night and had taken medication. This was untrue, Yarmysh said – another fiction in the Kremlin’s longstanding anti-Navalny campaign...
(a) the polls may give people something to talk/argue/hyperventilate over, but we are in all likelihood still nearly four years away from a General Election and they therefore have no predictive value. Commonly, indeed, they have no predictive value four weeks away from an election; and
(b) FWIW, all of these surveys basically suggest that all that's changed since last December is that a bunch of Lib Dem voters have gone over to Labour after the leadership change
The latter point might finally start to change if the Covid recession becomes a prolonged depression, but at this stage it looks as if the Government can get away with any degree of incompetence because the Opposition has a ceiling of support.
We are often told that Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them, but maybe that just doesn't hold true under the current circumstances? Perhaps Starmer has to do better than simply not being Corbyn?
We'd have fought them on the beaches and then that would have been that.
b) It was a joint invasion with the Soviets.
Greenland by the US in 1942, The Faroes by the UK in 1940.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SORRIftsmFE
FUSAG was probably the greatest deception of WWII, if not history, remember even in July 1944 the Germans still thought the Normandy landings were a deception and Patton would lead FUSAG into the real landings at Calais.
Paratroops can only hold out for days before needing relief from ground forces.
They generally need mechanised infantry and armour to consolidate the holds they have made.
Today I learnt something really quite remarkable: that there are 'US Postal Service Agents' with powers of arrest. It's one of those new discoveries that opens up more questions than it answers.