I am slightly underwhelmed by this virgin aunt routine to everything that the government does. Governments have appointed fellow travellers and like minded folk to run things forever but it became absolutely routine under Blair and indeed under the SNP.
Suggesting that this woman (who I freely confess not to have even heard of a couple of days ago) worked as a travel agent or in a supermarket when she was on the Board of Thomas Cook and Tesco's seems a tad unfair. She is an experienced manager. Whether she is a successful one is harder to judge but she is not obviously unqualified for the role.
I also don't agree that not having a scientist in charge (like Germany) is necessarily a bad thing. Part of the problem with PHE is that it has been too dominated by scientists who seem to see risk as something that really should not be taken, no matter what the consequences. It seems to be a part of the problem.
As to the perils of reorganising does anyone seriously think that the performance of PHE has reached the giddy heights of adequate in this crisis? Too slow, way too bureaucratic, just utterly useless at producing statistics and excessively cautious may be some of the criticisms that have been thrown their way. Some of this may be unfair in respect of an organisation starved of funds in recent times but it is not a good basis for going forward.
She may turn out to be a disaster and things may not improve but remember that PHE was created as a part of the Lansley reforms, a Minister who could give Chris Grayling a run for his money.
No one pretends that PHE wasn't in need of reform. Just that that a massive reorganisation like this is quite likely not to see any improvements for months, and that its genesis looks to be half baked.
If it is going to take months we might as well get going. Covid is not showing any signs of disappearing anytime soon. Hancock's admitted fear that we might get hit by something else whilst still dealing with it seems a reasonable concern as well.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
If we're seeing cases but not hospitalisations then that is more evidence that Test & Trace is working. We're finding the cases before they reach hospitals . . . via testing and tracing.
Or that we are dealing with a less virulent version of the virus. They do evolve rapidly.
A less virulent strain that is in the UK when across western Europe and across North America we're seeing increasing numbers of hospitalisations?
If Scotland becomes independent, would the SNP disband?
Quite possibly they would end up splitting, but a lot depends on how the Unionist parties react to independence and events in the immediate aftermath.
Sinn Fein in Ireland provides an interesting example. At the end of the War of Independence they split into pro and anti Treaty factions led by Collins and de Valera respectively.
The anti-Treaty faction were, for a while, abstentionist from the Dail, but then split again when de Valera led his supporters back into the Dail. The pro-Treaty faction ended up merging with a couple of other parties.
Today, the three largest parties in the Dail are these three splinters from the Sinn Fein of 1918.
Sinn Fein - They're the anti-Treaty faction who stuck to abstention the longest.
Fianna Fail - The anti-Treaty faction taken back into the Dail by de Valera.
Fine Gael - The party formed by the merger of the pro-Treaty faction with some other parties.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
If we're seeing cases but not hospitalisations then that is more evidence that Test & Trace is working. We're finding the cases before they reach hospitals . . . via testing and tracing.
No we are not. There is not a treatment that prevents deterioration nor a quick enough track and trace system to claim that.
I suspect that we are picking up the underwater bit of the disease iceberg. That seems to be the case in Leicester.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
I would suggest 2 things. 1. we're much much better at identifying cases now, so getting a better handle on a higher % of the infected. And 2. There's still a lag on these data.
Back in March/April, there were many un-reported/low symptom cases. The cases reported is a massive under-estimate and includes mostly the more seriously ill.
The Comres poll wasn't even comissioned by anyone. They just decided to do one for funs.
I suspect it is was done to start methodology testing for the upcoming referendum.
I remember the conversations I had with pollsters in 2011/12 about setting up their polls for the 2014 referendum.
One thing in particular vexed them, trying to come up with a wording that they could ask adults if they had children aged 13/14/15 and if they could ask them questions about how they would in the Indyref without the pollsters getting called nonces.
Why would they even ask that question?
The next election isn't due until 2024 but for next election polls generally the pollster doesn't ask if the adults have a child aged 14/15/16/17 and if they could ask them questions about how they would voted in the next General Election - do they?
This was specifically for the Indyref in 2014 when sixteen and seventeen year olds were going to be allowed to vote, and the pollsters wanted to get an accurate representation.
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
The other notable aspect of the data is that, even though cases are increasing, they're not accelerating*. Suggests that our understanding of the spread is limited by something other than R.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
If we're seeing cases but not hospitalisations then that is more evidence that Test & Trace is working. We're finding the cases before they reach hospitals . . . via testing and tracing.
Or that we are dealing with a less virulent version of the virus. They do evolve rapidly.
A less virulent strain that is in the UK when across western Europe and across North America we're seeing increasing numbers of hospitalisations?
Seems a tad unlikely and wishful thinking.
The original strain of the virus has already mutated. Wishful thinking not required....
The Comres poll wasn't even comissioned by anyone. They just decided to do one for funs.
I suspect it is was done to start methodology testing for the upcoming referendum.
I remember the conversations I had with pollsters in 2011/12 about setting up their polls for the 2014 referendum.
One thing in particular vexed them, trying to come up with a wording that they could ask adults if they had children aged 13/14/15 and if they could ask them questions about how they would in the Indyref without the pollsters getting called nonces.
Why would they even ask that question?
The next election isn't due until 2024 but for next election polls generally the pollster doesn't ask if the adults have a child aged 14/15/16/17 and if they could ask them questions about how they would voted in the next General Election - do they?
This was specifically for the Indyref in 2014 when sixteen and seventeen year olds were going to be allowed to vote, and the pollsters wanted to get an accurate representation.
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
I understand that but some youngsters vote in every General Election too.
On Harding, all that really needs to be said is that she is an analogue person being put in charge of all the national health data. It's a recipe for disaster. PHE surely needs to be reformed, but she isn't the right person to do it. All of the other guff about McKinsey is for the birds. Frankly anyone who believes that £500k to McKinsey counts as anything more than a footnote in some finance assistant's daily write up needs their head examining. McKinsey has its fingers in basically every pie going, believe me I am intimately acquainted to how they operate (the lady wife was a consultant for them for many years). They spit at £500k, it's chicken feed.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
If we're seeing cases but not hospitalisations then that is more evidence that Test & Trace is working. We're finding the cases before they reach hospitals . . . via testing and tracing.
No we are not. There is not a treatment that prevents deterioration nor a quick enough track and trace system to claim that.
I suspect that we are picking up the underwater bit of the disease iceberg. That seems to be the case in Leicester.
It seems maybe our track and track system is quick enough to claim that, in which case Dido is doing a good job.
If we're picking up the underwater bit of the iceberg then where is the above water bit of it?
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
I would suggest 2 things. 1. we're much much better at identifying cases now, so getting a better handle on a higher % of the infected. And 2. There's still a lag on these data.
Back in March/April, there were many un-reported/low symptom cases. The cases reported is a massive under-estimate and includes mostly the more seriously ill.
"What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?"
Social distancing measures are restricting the virus`s opportunities to replicate to surfaces rather than directly via aerosol/droplets (esp. droplets). For those that catch it, viral load is less and the bodies defences are more successful.
A secondary factor: maybe the cohort catching it now is different than the cohort that initially succumbed - now younger and fitter, I suspect.
I am sure CCHQ sorry HYUFD will find a way to explain these away!
Still close to 50 50 including Don't Knows but of course Boris will likely block indyref2 anyway.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
I would suggest 2 things. 1. we're much much better at identifying cases now, so getting a better handle on a higher % of the infected. And 2. There's still a lag on these data.
Back in March/April, there were many un-reported/low symptom cases. The cases reported is a massive under-estimate and includes mostly the more seriously ill.
"What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?"
Social distancing measures are restricting the virus`s opportunities to replicate to surfaces rather than directly via aerosol/droplets (esp. droplets). For those that catch it, viral load is less and the bodies defences are more successful.
A secondary factor: maybe the cohort catching it now is different than the cohort that initially succumbed - now younger and fitter, I suspect.
I am sure CCHQ sorry HYUFD will find a way to explain these away!
Still close to 50 50 including Don't Knows but of course Boris will likely block indyref2 anyway.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
When a Westminster poll gets posted, why then do you not include don't knows?
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
And the interesting bit is why is that the case - why aren't infections becoming hospital cases. What is different about this period of infections compare to March / April?
Different (younger) cohort and lots of people who are barely ill, if at all, getting tested. Back in March and April the tests were mainly the very sick, mainly in hospital. Now we are seeing what is in the community (if we could have done this in March/April, we would have seen 100,000s of positives).
It looks like Wales would be the last nation standing in the UK, 49% of English voters now want English independence too and 49% of Northern Irish voters want a United Ireland but only 32% of Welsh voters want Welsh independence
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
The local, door to door, approach appears to be working. The national, phone call based, system does not.
Yes, so the Dido system is expensive and useless, the local system run on starvation budgets is effective.
Neither accounts for the lack of a hospital wave though as we are reporting around 1000 cases a day, but falling hospitalisation rates. Manifestly, plenty are still being infected.
If we're seeing cases but not hospitalisations then that is more evidence that Test & Trace is working. We're finding the cases before they reach hospitals . . . via testing and tracing.
No we are not. There is not a treatment that prevents deterioration nor a quick enough track and trace system to claim that.
I suspect that we are picking up the underwater bit of the disease iceberg. That seems to be the case in Leicester.
It seems maybe our track and track system is quick enough to claim that, in which case Dido is doing a good job.
If we're picking up the underwater bit of the iceberg then where is the above water bit of it?
They would be infections serious enough to lead to hospitalisation.
So if that ratio is broadly the same, work back to March/April and see how many minor cases that predicts, that were not observed by testing then.
Even the lowest level estimate of serological testing estimates a few million of us have had it, at least.
Considering Dido is running NHS Test & Trace she seems the natural person to choose as temporary leader of this new organisation.
FPT but On Topic: Probably a controversial opinion but . . . Given that our neighbouring nations that had an original COVID surge all now seem to be having a second wave while we aren't (yet) then it seems like NHS Test & Trace are doing a good job.
Anyone agree?
I doubt test and trace will have anything to do with it. I have seen nothing to indicate that its not still the shambolic mess it was right from the start.
Don't tar all the efforts with the same brush. The local teams are proving very efficient and are undoubtedly helping to keep on top off things. At the moment its really hard to say why we are not seeing a large scale increase in cases, but it may be as we have not opened up nightclubs and larger indoor gatherings yet. Weddings still limited to 30 etc
The local efforts though are not nationwide. I think 94 authorities only
I am sure CCHQ sorry HYUFD will find a way to explain these away!
Still close to 50 50 including Don't Knows but of course Boris will likely block indyref2 anyway.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
When a Westminster poll gets posted, why then do you not include don't knows?
As they matter more in referendums, see Quebec in 1995 where don't knows went No and No got 51% despite a Yes lead.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
The Comres poll wasn't even comissioned by anyone. They just decided to do one for funs.
I suspect it is was done to start methodology testing for the upcoming referendum.
I remember the conversations I had with pollsters in 2011/12 about setting up their polls for the 2014 referendum.
One thing in particular vexed them, trying to come up with a wording that they could ask adults if they had children aged 13/14/15 and if they could ask them questions about how they would in the Indyref without the pollsters getting called nonces.
Why would they even ask that question?
The next election isn't due until 2024 but for next election polls generally the pollster doesn't ask if the adults have a child aged 14/15/16/17 and if they could ask them questions about how they would voted in the next General Election - do they?
This was specifically for the Indyref in 2014 when sixteen and seventeen year olds were going to be allowed to vote, and the pollsters wanted to get an accurate representation.
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
I understand that but some youngsters vote in every General Election too.
1. Several outlets ignored her experience with NHSI 2. Other experience was and is downplayed, particularly senior management experience 3. Every time she is hired it's despite her alleged failings and not because of the work she put in 4. Implication of tokenism/over-promotion when considering her at senior level 5. Her relationship to a man is emphasised, with the implication that she brings nothing and her appointment is down to him 6. The previous failings of another man, Matt Hancock, are projected onto her 7. Her own statements that she will criticise the government of any colour just ignored.
It looks like Wales would be the last nation standing in the UK, 49% of English voters now want English independence too and 49% of Northern Irish voters want a United Ireland but only 32% of Welsh voters want Welsh independence
The Comres poll wasn't even comissioned by anyone. They just decided to do one for funs.
I suspect it is was done to start methodology testing for the upcoming referendum.
I remember the conversations I had with pollsters in 2011/12 about setting up their polls for the 2014 referendum.
One thing in particular vexed them, trying to come up with a wording that they could ask adults if they had children aged 13/14/15 and if they could ask them questions about how they would in the Indyref without the pollsters getting called nonces.
Why would they even ask that question?
The next election isn't due until 2024 but for next election polls generally the pollster doesn't ask if the adults have a child aged 14/15/16/17 and if they could ask them questions about how they would voted in the next General Election - do they?
This was specifically for the Indyref in 2014 when sixteen and seventeen year olds were going to be allowed to vote, and the pollsters wanted to get an accurate representation.
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
I understand that but some youngsters vote in every General Election too.
Not at the level they did at the Indyref.
At enough of a level to be relevant though. Do the pollsters do anything to record their views normally or just accept that they're outside the purview of the poll being done?
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
The Comres poll wasn't even comissioned by anyone. They just decided to do one for funs.
I suspect it is was done to start methodology testing for the upcoming referendum.
I remember the conversations I had with pollsters in 2011/12 about setting up their polls for the 2014 referendum.
One thing in particular vexed them, trying to come up with a wording that they could ask adults if they had children aged 13/14/15 and if they could ask them questions about how they would in the Indyref without the pollsters getting called nonces.
Why would they even ask that question?
The next election isn't due until 2024 but for next election polls generally the pollster doesn't ask if the adults have a child aged 14/15/16/17 and if they could ask them questions about how they would voted in the next General Election - do they?
This was specifically for the Indyref in 2014 when sixteen and seventeen year olds were going to be allowed to vote, and the pollsters wanted to get an accurate representation.
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
I understand that but some youngsters vote in every General Election too.
Not at the level they did at the Indyref.
At enough of a level to be relevant though. Do the pollsters do anything to record their views normally or just accept that they're outside the purview of the poll being done?
Yes, at the time the pollsters wanted to cover all bases.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
On Harding, all that really needs to be said is that she is an analogue person being put in charge of all the national health data. It's a recipe for disaster. PHE surely needs to be reformed, but she isn't the right person to do it. All of the other guff about McKinsey is for the birds. Frankly anyone who believes that £500k to McKinsey counts as anything more than a footnote in some finance assistant's daily write up needs their head examining. McKinsey has its fingers in basically every pie going, believe me I am intimately acquainted to how they operate (the lady wife was a consultant for them for many years). They spit at £500k, it's chicken feed.
Indeed. But as a I pointed out upthread (& which the media do not seem to have noticed), they were a little earlier awarded a contract of quite another kind:
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/25175/mckinsey-to-evaluate-british-nhs-test-and-trace-programme ...As the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) looks to improve the service, the Health Service Journal has revealed that McKinsey & Company has been tasked with reviewing the governance of the NHS Test and Trace programme. The consultancy will now consider which level of state management would facilitate the best provision of its future services – be that remaining under the direct control of the DHSC, gain greater operational independence, or be merged with another entity of the DHSC, such as Public Health England... (27th July)
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
Blair was probably more Eurphile than Starmer, he seemed to manage it. Of course you may think TB contributed to make these seats Leave friendly.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Sorry but do they know what half the cabinet studied?
If you're paying, can't you study what you wish?
The problem isn't the subject. It's the level of knowledge and learning involved.
If Fenland Poly did a Surfing Studies Degree, it would be a top-notch. Tons of science about beaches, ecology, wave dynamics etc. People taking it would learn something.
The problem is that many universities are working on the basis of "must get students across the line with a 2.1 or better".
And that the evaluation of universities and degrees is not done rationally - see companies using Russell Group membership as a criteria etc.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
Blair was probably more Eurphile than Starmer, he seemed to manage it. Of course you may think TB contributed to make these seats Leave friendly.
That would be the same Tony Blair who didn't take us into the Euro. Joining the Euro and/or not agreeing to the expansion was the way to stop Brexit. Blair got both wrong (from the Europhile point of view).
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
Blair was probably more Eurphile than Starmer, he seemed to manage it. Of course you may think TB contributed to make these seats Leave friendly.
Yes, I think his handling of the A8 accession caused Brexit
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Steve Bannon said (after getting thrown off the ship) that it would end very very badly.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
If Scotland becomes independent the Tory majority would increase from 80 to 127. Their share of the vote in the rest of Britain would rise from 45% to 47%.
I see Northern Ireland is considering introducing new Covid restrictions. There are currently 4 people in hospital in Northern Ireland with Covid, none in ICU.
On Harding, all that really needs to be said is that she is an analogue person being put in charge of all the national health data. It's a recipe for disaster. PHE surely needs to be reformed, but she isn't the right person to do it. All of the other guff about McKinsey is for the birds. Frankly anyone who believes that £500k to McKinsey counts as anything more than a footnote in some finance assistant's daily write up needs their head examining. McKinsey has its fingers in basically every pie going, believe me I am intimately acquainted to how they operate (the lady wife was a consultant for them for many years). They spit at £500k, it's chicken feed.
Indeed. But as a I pointed out upthread (& which the media do not seem to have noticed), they were a little earlier awarded a contract of quite another kind:
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/25175/mckinsey-to-evaluate-british-nhs-test-and-trace-programme ...As the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) looks to improve the service, the Health Service Journal has revealed that McKinsey & Company has been tasked with reviewing the governance of the NHS Test and Trace programme. The consultancy will now consider which level of state management would facilitate the best provision of its future services – be that remaining under the direct control of the DHSC, gain greater operational independence, or be merged with another entity of the DHSC, such as Public Health England... (27th July)
Tip of iceberg ?
I suspect that all the NHS data is more attractive to McKinsey, being paid to take it merely the cherry on the cake.
1. Several outlets ignored her experience with NHSI 2. Other experience was and is downplayed, particularly senior management experience 3. Every time she is hired it's despite her alleged failings and not because of the work she put in 4. Implication of tokenism/over-promotion when considering her at senior level 5. Her relationship to a man is emphasised, with the implication that she brings nothing and her appointment is down to him 6. The previous failings of another man, Matt Hancock, are projected onto her 7. Her own statements that she will criticise the government of any colour just ignored.
Cyclefree should know better.
You missed out fighting her way up from humble beginnings.
If Scotland becomes independent, would the SNP disband?
Quite possibly they would end up splitting, but a lot depends on how the Unionist parties react to independence and events in the immediate aftermath.
Sinn Fein in Ireland provides an interesting example. At the end of the War of Independence they split into pro and anti Treaty factions led by Collins and de Valera respectively.
The anti-Treaty faction were, for a while, abstentionist from the Dail, but then split again when de Valera led his supporters back into the Dail. The pro-Treaty faction ended up merging with a couple of other parties.
Today, the three largest parties in the Dail are these three splinters from the Sinn Fein of 1918.
Sinn Fein - They're the anti-Treaty faction who stuck to abstention the longest.
Fianna Fail - The anti-Treaty faction taken back into the Dail by de Valera.
Fine Gael - The party formed by the merger of the pro-Treaty faction with some other parties.
And Irish Labour also can be linked indirectly to Sinn Fein - OK, here goes:
In 1970, SF split into the Provos and Officials.
In 1974, some of The Officials broke away to form the INLA
In 1977, the remaining Officials restyled themselves "SF - The Workers' Party"
In 1982, they renamed themselves as just The Workers' Party
In 1992, some of the Workers' Party broke away to form Democratic Left
And then in 1999, Democratic Left merged with Irish Labour.
The Workers' Party still exist North and South but are really rather minor players now.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Steve Bannon said (after getting thrown off the ship) that it would end very very badly.
I see no reason to doubt him.
Yes, but if you read the article, Stevens is arguing the party is now as much a problem as Trump. (And I think there’s good reason to doubt anything Bannon says.)
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
to the 45% of English that voted Remain, to Leave voters who are not obsessed with Brexit, but rather prioritise other issues like competency, and also those who realise that Leave was a mistake. Between all those it is quite possible to have a substantial majority
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
That’s the kind of electoral malpractice that could quite conceivably be attempted, and very difficult then to deal with.
On Harding, all that really needs to be said is that she is an analogue person being put in charge of all the national health data. It's a recipe for disaster. PHE surely needs to be reformed, but she isn't the right person to do it. All of the other guff about McKinsey is for the birds. Frankly anyone who believes that £500k to McKinsey counts as anything more than a footnote in some finance assistant's daily write up needs their head examining. McKinsey has its fingers in basically every pie going, believe me I am intimately acquainted to how they operate (the lady wife was a consultant for them for many years). They spit at £500k, it's chicken feed.
Indeed. But as a I pointed out upthread (& which the media do not seem to have noticed), they were a little earlier awarded a contract of quite another kind:
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/25175/mckinsey-to-evaluate-british-nhs-test-and-trace-programme ...As the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) looks to improve the service, the Health Service Journal has revealed that McKinsey & Company has been tasked with reviewing the governance of the NHS Test and Trace programme. The consultancy will now consider which level of state management would facilitate the best provision of its future services – be that remaining under the direct control of the DHSC, gain greater operational independence, or be merged with another entity of the DHSC, such as Public Health England... (27th July)
Tip of iceberg ?
Tbh, McKinsey are everywhere. Lots of people say Goldman Sachs is the vampire squid, but I'd give that title to McKinsey. They are an inevitability in public (and private) sector consultancy services. Honestly, just take a look at the decisions they've been involved in.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
Blair was probably more Eurphile than Starmer, he seemed to manage it. Of course you may think TB contributed to make these seats Leave friendly.
That would be the same Tony Blair who didn't take us into the Euro. Joining the Euro and/or not agreeing to the expansion was the way to stop Brexit. Blair got both wrong (from the Europhile point of view).
I've never said being Europhile automatically makes you smart.
As with Devolution, I wonder how deeply Blair felt about anything. I think often he went for the less troublesome option - the Jocks say they must have devo, ok then, Gordo says no to Euro, ok then, we shouldn't frighten the horses by trying to sell further integration, ok then.
Ironically his biggest fckup was the most difficult & consequential decision.
On Harding, all that really needs to be said is that she is an analogue person being put in charge of all the national health data. It's a recipe for disaster. PHE surely needs to be reformed, but she isn't the right person to do it. All of the other guff about McKinsey is for the birds. Frankly anyone who believes that £500k to McKinsey counts as anything more than a footnote in some finance assistant's daily write up needs their head examining. McKinsey has its fingers in basically every pie going, believe me I am intimately acquainted to how they operate (the lady wife was a consultant for them for many years). They spit at £500k, it's chicken feed.
Indeed. But as a I pointed out upthread (& which the media do not seem to have noticed), they were a little earlier awarded a contract of quite another kind:
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/25175/mckinsey-to-evaluate-british-nhs-test-and-trace-programme ...As the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) looks to improve the service, the Health Service Journal has revealed that McKinsey & Company has been tasked with reviewing the governance of the NHS Test and Trace programme. The consultancy will now consider which level of state management would facilitate the best provision of its future services – be that remaining under the direct control of the DHSC, gain greater operational independence, or be merged with another entity of the DHSC, such as Public Health England... (27th July)
Tip of iceberg ?
I suspect that all the NHS data is more attractive to McKinsey, being paid to take it merely the cherry on the cake.
I seriously doubt it, if you know what McKinsey do and how they operate you'd be of the same opinion. It's very likely that this is a standard clause included by the government not McKinsey. As I said, McKinsey have fingers in every pie imaginable, NHS data means nothing when you look at their scale.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
It is absolutely the thing that people like SeaShanty are displaying. Normalcey bias I think someone called it.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
That’s the kind of electoral malpractice that could quite conceivably be attempted, and very difficult then to deal with.
Florida always always always has electoral controversy in the general
I am sure CCHQ sorry HYUFD will find a way to explain these away!
Still close to 50 50 including Don't Knows but of course Boris will likely block indyref2 anyway.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
When a Westminster poll gets posted, why then do you not include don't knows?
As they matter more in referendums, see Quebec in 1995 where don't knows went No and No got 51% despite a Yes lead.
In general elections they can go multiple ways
Quebec 1995, you say? That's all the proof I need.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
It is absolutely the thing that people like SeaShanty are displaying. Normalcey bias I think someone called it.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
Trump is also stupid enough to declare he won 80% of the vote and expect people to believe it, however.
I would imagine that is a very serious interruption to commerce
Normally yes but it is both frightening and depressing how much remains shut up here. Normally there would be at least 20 advocates coming through for the courts. Currently there are no courts to come to.
I would imagine that is a very serious interruption to commerce
Normally yes but it is both frightening and depressing how much remains shut up here. Normally there would be at least 20 advocates coming through for the courts. Currently there are no courts to come to.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
It is absolutely the thing that people like SeaShanty are displaying. Normalcey bias I think someone called it.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
For me the whole idea of a free election in a country with the rule of law being 'stolen' is completely the wrong way to look at it. All it does is put your party in a comfort zone where it does not have to change or review anything it did last time around, when in fact the election was not stolen, that party was just beaten.
That's where the democrats are now, for me. IN a massive comfort zone of self indulgence where nothing they did last time around was wrong, and indeed they can double down on their pet ideas and beliefs.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
It is absolutely the thing that people like SeaShanty are displaying. Normalcey bias I think someone called it.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
For me the whole idea of a free election in a country with the rule of law being 'stolen' is completely the wrong way to look at it. All it does is put your party in a comfort zone where it does not have to change or review anything it did last time around, when in fact the election was not stolen, that party was just beaten.
That's where the democrats are now, for me. IN a massive comfort zone of self indulgence where nothing they did last time around was wrong, and indeed they can double down on their pet ideas and beliefs.
There are now just 523 Covid positive patients in hospital in England. There are 854 hospitals in England, so thats an average of 0.6 patients per hospital. Most hospitals have 600+ beds, some have over a 1000.
Positive tests may be increasing but the numbers in hospital are coming down by 100 per week.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
to the 45% of English that voted Remain, to Leave voters who are not obsessed with Brexit, but rather prioritise other issues like competency, and also those who realise that Leave was a mistake. Between all those it is quite possible to have a substantial majority
Two observations.
First, Starmer has very sensibly said very little about Brexit since becoming leader, because it's understandably obvious that Johnson wants to return to that conversation.
Second, we don't know how Brexit is going to turn out. It's the elephant in the room that's yet to land. Though if the "let's sign up for everything including the Euro and speaking French" campaign were to run the UK's preparations, I'm not sure they could sabotage the process more than the government is.
If Brexit goes well, BoJo is PM for as long as he wants, irrespective of everything else. If it goes meh, or is an omnishambles, that leave majority could melt away pretty quickly, and nobody will be able to call SKS Captain Hindsight ever again.
Years ago when I as an English Tory said that I supported Scottish independence I was treated with incredulity and like I was insane. Such a combination was considered impossible.
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
I still support the Union as we are stronger together but yes some English Tories are attracted to Scotland leaving the UK as it would make it almost impossible for a non Blairite Labour party to ever win a general election again
It would not make it impossible, the Labour Party would just need to adapt to be more attractive to the English. The pendulum will always swing eventually.
And they would have to adapt by becoming Blairite again.
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
Leave won 68.5% of English seats, how is a Brexit blocker like Starmer going to appeal?
Their hope will be that by 2024 Brexit will be history (in the sense of having happened a long time ago and no longer politically contentious) or such a disaster that everyone who voted Leave will conveniently misremember their past vote and be sure they voted Remain.
It might not work, but I don't think it's necessarily doomed to failure.
If Starmer loses in 2024 then at least three potential weaknesses will be more important than Brexit: boredom, incompetence and fear.
If he wins it will be because he manages to appear interesting, competent and free of the left-wing bogeymen.
Fascinating interview with one of the most successful Republican operatives of the last few decades, who seems to have had something of a Damascene moment...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918 ... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
Terrifying concept.
It is absolutely the thing that people like SeaShanty are displaying. Normalcey bias I think someone called it.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
For me the whole idea of a free election in a country with the rule of law being 'stolen' is completely the wrong way to look at it. All it does is put your party in a comfort zone where it does not have to change or review anything it did last time around, when in fact the election was not stolen, that party was just beaten.
That's where the democrats are now, for me. IN a massive comfort zone of self indulgence where nothing they did last time around was wrong, and indeed they can double down on their pet ideas and beliefs.
I am sure CCHQ sorry HYUFD will find a way to explain these away!
Still close to 50 50 including Don't Knows but of course Boris will likely block indyref2 anyway.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
When a Westminster poll gets posted, why then do you not include don't knows?
As they matter more in referendums, see Quebec in 1995 where don't knows went No and No got 51% despite a Yes lead.
Comments
Seems a tad unlikely and wishful thinking.
Sinn Fein in Ireland provides an interesting example. At the end of the War of Independence they split into pro and anti Treaty factions led by Collins and de Valera respectively.
The anti-Treaty faction were, for a while, abstentionist from the Dail, but then split again when de Valera led his supporters back into the Dail. The pro-Treaty faction ended up merging with a couple of other parties.
Today, the three largest parties in the Dail are these three splinters from the Sinn Fein of 1918.
Sinn Fein - They're the anti-Treaty faction who stuck to abstention the longest.
Fianna Fail - The anti-Treaty faction taken back into the Dail by de Valera.
Fine Gael - The party formed by the merger of the pro-Treaty faction with some other parties.
I suspect that we are picking up the underwater bit of the disease iceberg. That seems to be the case in Leicester.
Back in March/April, there were many un-reported/low symptom cases. The cases reported is a massive under-estimate and includes mostly the more seriously ill.
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1296084227981807621?s=20
There was an expectation that in the Indyref turnout would be higher than a GE and that younger voters would more likely to vote, an expectation that was borne out, so they wanted to get their polls right.
*DO, DO, DO, THE SO FAR SHUFFLE
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/new-strain-covid-more-infectious-1.892276
If we're picking up the underwater bit of the iceberg then where is the above water bit of it?
Social distancing measures are restricting the virus`s opportunities to replicate to surfaces rather than directly via aerosol/droplets (esp. droplets). For those that catch it, viral load is less and the bodies defences are more successful.
A secondary factor: maybe the cohort catching it now is different than the cohort that initially succumbed - now younger and fitter, I suspect.
If he does not and it is Yes then as I said that means customs posts at the Scottish border, tariffs on Scottish exports to the UK and almost permanent Tory rule once Scottish MPs go, without them Starmer has near zero chance of becoming PM
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1296046517464313856?s=19
So if that ratio is broadly the same, work back to March/April and see how many minor cases that predicts, that were not observed by testing then.
Even the lowest level estimate of serological testing estimates a few million of us have had it, at least.
In general elections they can go multiple ways
Boris' right hand woman seems to be involved
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/from-champion-of-terror-to-peer-of-the-realm-who-put-claire-fox-in-the-house-of-lords-5kw7bmx3w
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/did-no-10-power-couple-back-peerage-for-ex-communist-claire-fox-lx888hsxc
I still get treated like I'm insane sometimes for my beliefs here, but not because of that anymore it seems. The idea of the English, even English Tories, thinking that Scottish independence would be a good idea does seem to be becoming more and more accepted as a more mainstream idea and not batshit crazy.
1. Several outlets ignored her experience with NHSI
2. Other experience was and is downplayed, particularly senior management experience
3. Every time she is hired it's despite her alleged failings and not because of the work she put in
4. Implication of tokenism/over-promotion when considering her at senior level
5. Her relationship to a man is emphasised, with the implication that she brings nothing and her appointment is down to him
6. The previous failings of another man, Matt Hancock, are projected onto her
7. Her own statements that she will criticise the government of any colour just ignored.
Cyclefree should know better.
Normally non affiliated and crossbench peers are nominated by the government.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/906078/Political_Peerages_2020.pdf
Wales 2021 will be interesting.
Sorry but do they know what half the cabinet studied?
If you're paying, can't you study what you wish?
Not since 1966 has Labour won a majority in England without Blair as leader and Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017 won comfortable Tory majorities in England alone
But as a I pointed out upthread (& which the media do not seem to have noticed), they were a little earlier awarded a contract of quite another kind:
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/25175/mckinsey-to-evaluate-british-nhs-test-and-trace-programme
...As the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) looks to improve the service, the Health Service Journal has revealed that McKinsey & Company has been tasked with reviewing the governance of the NHS Test and Trace programme. The consultancy will now consider which level of state management would facilitate the best provision of its future services – be that remaining under the direct control of the DHSC, gain greater operational independence, or be merged with another entity of the DHSC, such as Public Health England... (27th July)
Tip of iceberg ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918
... Look, in July, Trump was already talking about suspending the elections. What do you think he’s going to do in October? Tell me what’s wrong with this scenario: It’s November 1, he’s losing, there are reports of voter irregularities in Florida, like there always are, and he sends those guys in camouflage into Miami-Dade County to seize the ballot boxes. Who’s going to stop him? The county security guards? They’re not going to phone ahead. What are the courts going to do? Order another election? Throw out Dade County? I don’t know. Who would object? [Attorney General William] Barr would go right along with it. The inability to imagine Trump has always been his greatest advantage. Normal people expect people who are acting abnormally to revert to normality. Trump understands that and he’s not a normal person. With the United States government, you’ve given Tony Soprano the paving contract and you’re acting shocked that he doesn’t seem interested in getting the road paved...
If Fenland Poly did a Surfing Studies Degree, it would be a top-notch. Tons of science about beaches, ecology, wave dynamics etc. People taking it would learn something.
The problem is that many universities are working on the basis of "must get students across the line with a 2.1 or better".
And that the evaluation of universities and degrees is not done rationally - see companies using Russell Group membership as a criteria etc.
I see no reason to doubt him.
https://twitter.com/NetworkRailSCOT/status/1295748732714201088?s=19
In 1970, SF split into the Provos and Officials.
In 1974, some of The Officials broke away to form the INLA
In 1977, the remaining Officials restyled themselves "SF - The Workers' Party"
In 1982, they renamed themselves as just The Workers' Party
In 1992, some of the Workers' Party broke away to form Democratic Left
And then in 1999, Democratic Left merged with Irish Labour.
The Workers' Party still exist North and South but are really rather minor players now.
(And I think there’s good reason to doubt anything Bannon says.)
The 'get rid of the Senedd altogether' movement is now a thing, too.
As with Devolution, I wonder how deeply Blair felt about anything. I think often he went for the less troublesome option - the Jocks say they must have devo, ok then, Gordo says no to Euro, ok then, we shouldn't frighten the horses by trying to sell further integration, ok then.
Ironically his biggest fckup was the most difficult & consequential decision.
In 2000 the Dems quietly went along with the election being stolen and we got 8 years of criminal government by Bush Jr.
I fully expect the Dems to bend over again if Trump attempts to actively steal the election.
https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/09/broward-county-inside-the-most-controversial-elections-department-in-florida/
That's where the democrats are now, for me. IN a massive comfort zone of self indulgence where nothing they did last time around was wrong, and indeed they can double down on their pet ideas and beliefs.
https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1296087892041883648?s=19
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1296100979931316237?s=09
Positive tests may be increasing but the numbers in hospital are coming down by 100 per week.
Its defintely time to open up a bit more.
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1296096713573367809?s=20
Before any of you nasty people have a go at poor Richard, this line is straight from Starmer Towers.
First, Starmer has very sensibly said very little about Brexit since becoming leader, because it's understandably obvious that Johnson wants to return to that conversation.
Second, we don't know how Brexit is going to turn out. It's the elephant in the room that's yet to land. Though if the "let's sign up for everything including the Euro and speaking French" campaign were to run the UK's preparations, I'm not sure they could sabotage the process more than the government is.
If Brexit goes well, BoJo is PM for as long as he wants, irrespective of everything else. If it goes meh, or is an omnishambles, that leave majority could melt away pretty quickly, and nobody will be able to call SKS Captain Hindsight ever again.
It might not work, but I don't think it's necessarily doomed to failure.
If Starmer loses in 2024 then at least three potential weaknesses will be more important than Brexit: boredom, incompetence and fear.
If he wins it will be because he manages to appear interesting, competent and free of the left-wing bogeymen.
We've got to get those soft unionists back and come up with a new constitutional settlement for the UK.