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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: How Trump and Biden are viewing COVID19 very different
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: How Trump and Biden are viewing COVID19 very differently
Via https://t.co/M3stcEAPxE How supporters of Biden and Trump have very different views of coronavirus pic.twitter.com/aE1xasoPjR
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Is Trump the real favourite of USA2020?
Congrats on you unexpected fluency in American slang!
Of course in August 1944 "home by Christmas" was the matra west of the Siegfried Line.
He needs to lose so big that it salts the earth for anyone like him going forwards.
Or 50/50 that he loses big?
I would say 40% he loses by a landslide, 40% he loses narrowly, 20% he wins narrowly.
The 20% terrifies me.
During Mike Lowry's first and only term as Governor of Washington, he was accused of sexual harassment by a young women who was a senior aide in his administration. When he did NOT deny the charge, and instead agreed to settle out of court, his poll (pun intended) numbers fell to the vanishing point.
Lowry was NOT helped by the fact that the State Police observed him getting a blowjob in a car from another "staffer" who was apparently eager to "serve" the Governor.
Root (pun again intended) of Lowry's trouble was alcoholism. When I first got to WA State, he was a hero to liberal Democrats in general and enviros in particular.
Indeed, the latter were so smitten that, even after his fall from grace as Gov, they ran him for Commissioner of Public Lands, a statewide elective position in charge of state natural resources dept. The (utterly predictable) result was he not only LOST the Democratic nomination, but helped to elect a Republican COL.
I can understand why liberal Americans hate him and yes he could do more about climate change but beyond that he has not really affected Europe at all
Mind you, he was right about China when no-one else was.
Suburban voters in PDX & SEA environs are also trending this way. However, there MAY be a bit of a backlash among exurban & rural voters.
Note that both Oregon & Washington are solid for Biden-Harris. IMHO, only truly contested congressional race in these two states is WA CD03, currently held by incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, who is being challenged for 2nd time running by Carolyn Long.
August 2020 primary results were encouraging for JHB, and disappointing for Long. However, this is in part due to turnout differential that favored GOP due to lack of any serious Democratic challenge to incumbent Gov. Jay Inslee as opposed to a host of contenders for GOP.
As predicted (or rather foreordained) Inslee was 1st place in field of over three dozen candidates. Second in Top Two primary was anti-gun control activist Loren Culp, who pulled out a substantial rural, rightwing vote.
Nah not Johnson's fault, can't be his fault. He is blameless.
Indeed, as mayor of Burlington, Vermont, he was one democratic socialist who worked well with the local chamber of commerce. Not ALL the time, but more times than you might think.
He's closer to the late John Smith than the politically dead Jeremy Corbyn.
Again, should emphasise that I have little knowledge of what is actually going on!
Apparently a good mark for a Trump win is this, so said the Telegraph the other day
It is up to Europe to spend more on its own defence v Putin
https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1295721579813523457?s=19
https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1295821278012678145?s=19
And a second term Trump will know he can get away with it, and won't be constrained by thoughts of getting reelected in 2024. Or alternatively, will be constrained by thoughts of getting reelected in 2024.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trudeau-prorogues-parliament-until-sept-23-1.5068461
He might do it, but the current odds (which imply a 35-40% chance) look a little skinny to me.
While we're flinging the blame around, I'd also note that the teaching unions seemed adamant that this was the right approach. I think the universities were also on board.
Boris must have an appalling Bradford factor with all his absenses.
However if Labour refuse a Unionist Alliance with the Tories leading to a Nationalist majority at Holyrood, indyref2 and Scottish independence then without Scottish MPs the Tories will dominate Westminster for decades to come
I have the same problem with Trump being saved by his wonder drug for Covid-19 come November. It's the economy.
More for Labour's benefit if anything as without Scotland the Tories will dominate Westminster
Without Scotland Labour will almost certainly never win again regardless of economic circumstance without a Blairite leader and certainly not be in any longer than 1 term e.g. after 1945 the Tories won in England in 1950 and after 1966 the Tories won in 1970
Wilson only became PM in 1964 and February 1974 thanks to Scottish MPs
- Florida now allows ex-felons to vote. These are disproportionately black men. I'm not sure if this will have a big effect on the result, but it probably adds half a point to the Democrats. That said, Florida was a very poor result for the Dems in 2018. Why should 2020 be any better?
- Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are worse than in any other battleground state. The Dems did *really* well there in 2018. I can't see it as any thing other than a Dem pickup in 2020.
Polling finished on 4 August. 400 voters across 4 battleground states. 100 per state.
There seem to be barely more black people than white people in prison in Florida. They're *disproportionately* black compared to the Florida population. However, I imagine the white people are disproportionately low-education, and low-education white people are a *very* Trumpy demographic - maybe not quite as Trumpy as black people are Dem, but still very Trumpy.
There are also Latinos, but IIUC a lot of Florida Latinos are Cuban, who are historically quite GOP.
Add that ex-felons don't vote much even when they're allowed to and I'd be surprised if it nets the Dems as much as half a point.
A plucky racing punter has scooped a whopping £150k from backing five horses that were all carrying the No.10 saddlecloth.
The customer placed the 50p each-way five-fold bet on Saturday evening’s racing and is now richer to the tune of £151,488.10.
14/1 shot Mandarian Monarch kicked off the winning No.10 selections in the 18:45 at Tramore, followed by Morrooj (6/1) and Sir Canford (12/1) over at Chepstow.
Fellow No.10 horse in the racecard, Red Vermillion, beat Willie Mullins’ odds-on poke in the 19:45 at Tramore before Das Kapital (14/1) wrapped up proceedings in South Wales, scooping a cool £150k from just £5.
https://news.ladbrokes.com/horse-racing/punter-lands-150k-no-10-horses.html
Going to the Supreme Court? I can’t think of any recent precedents...
There's a long way to go, but if the election were tomorrow Biden would almost certainly win.
In the unlikely event of Trump getting re elected, he will be hamstrung by a Dem Congress and possibly Senate. He can pack the SCOTUS, but that really affects domestic social issues rather than anything outside the USA. A further Trump presidency will trash America further, but probably won't impact us much.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271637/monthly-trade-balance-of-china/#:~:text=In June 2020, the trade,balance implies a trade deficit.&text=China surpassed the United States,goods trading economy in 2013.