68% of the public don't consider people getting a result worse than they should have got as worse than people getting a result better than they should have?
Makes me worry for the British public.
There's a sense of fair play issue for all other year groups either side of this cohort. The government has royally fucked it up, there is no doubt but this solution is also not very good.
What I don't understand is how there wasn't a school/DfE/OFQUAL feedback loop so double and triple grade reductions were reviewed well before being finalised. That's where the largest sense of injustice comes from. People getting downgraded from a B prediction to an E despite never having gotten an E before in their educational careers. We had the yearly update from my old school, usually it's about how well they have done and highlighting those who did exceptionally well and giving the old boys network an update on who will be joining the ranks. This year it was the headmaster laying into the process and how they intended to take whatever necessary measures to have the downgrades overturned (my school is in a very low income area despite being selective) because the school has, err, mechanisms in place to prevent students from scoring lower than a B which means it a few C's sneak through every year.
I don't know, but the fact that the government's organising intelligence is someone who thinks that AI-driven data-based decision making is brilliant, and human decisions (especially if taken by ordinaries) are rubbish, might have something to do with it.
As someone who has written and trained ML models I can tell you that grade prediction would be a very good use of the technology. However the inputs required are many and the outputs need to be tested against live data before it can be used. I don't think this was ML though, they would have needed for previous years to be funneled into the model to train it and increased the number of inputs instead of just predicted grades, class rank and past school performance and "trustworthiness" of the teachers at said school. You'd need to stick in way more individual past performance data in specific subjects and related ones. If someone was studying history then you'd want to factor in their English Lit results at GCSE and stick a weight on that etc...
Honestly it would be an incredibly interesting project to work on, but I'm almost certain the cretins at the DfE didn't do anything like that and Dominic Cummings has no more than a passing understanding of where, how and why ML can be used in a given situation. You can't just throw it at anything without a second thought.
Actually they did do something. Back in 2016/17 they stopped asking for centre /school predictions as they no longer wanted it.
So there was no dataset to work from....
To be honest those were treated as a chore to be got over as rapidly as possible. I expect there were schools that just predicted everyone A*s. When I had to do it I just used to put in the same grade as I had used for a UCAS prediction. We never had any feedback for them, including the year when I discovered the form on my desk waiting to be submitted when I came back in September.
Dido Harding. They're not even trying not to be brazen are they
Harding is the living embodiment of everything that's wrong with how this country is run. Daughter of a hereditary peer, private school, Oxford PPE, McKinsey, knows the right people, has fucked up everything she has run and keeps failing upwards. And then people wonder why the British machinery of government makes Czarist Russia look like a model of efficiency.* (* Currently reading the Guns of August, interesting to look at another country run by an imbecilic aristocratic elite where who you know is the only thing worth knowing).
You forgot to mention her being married to a Tory MP, John Penrose, who sits on the advisory board of a think tank "1828" which long before Covid-19 called for the NHS to be replaced by an insurance system and for Public Health England to be scrapped. It also supported Hancock for leader after May. Dido Harding and Hancock are great friends. She sits on the Jockey Club’s Board; he is an amateur jockey.
I have said before I would vote for Biden (though I would not have voted for Sanders) but as I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and am not American that does not mean much.
The last Republican I would have voted for President was George W Bush over Al Gore in 2000
Forgive me, I thought you had some reservations about Warren on the ticket but I presume you think Harris is a sensible if perhaps unimaginative selection.
Pretty much though if I was Biden I would have picked Demings or Whitmer
PB is a wonderful place. No where else on the internet would I have learnt that the only person at fault over the A level shambles is Keir Starmer.
It's wonderfully balanced, isn't it?
I'm the only person here who seems to think he's alright
Sir Keir is not Jeremy. That means that I am no longer scared of a Labour government.
I might not agree with everything he wants to do (and to be honest I’m not sure I know much of what he wants to do) but I am fairly sure that he has the best interests of the country at heart, which I certainly was not with his predecessor.
So yes, he is alright.
Doesn’t mean I’ll vote for him, but in four years, who knows.
Yeah because Captain Hindsight's party came up with an alternative solution it was proposing in advance and did something differently in Wales where its in government didn't it?
Oh wait, what's that . . . Captain Hindsight had squat to say this until in hindsight? Oh well, there's a shock.
Keep tuned at the same bat time, on the same bat channel for the next thrilling adventure of Captain Hindsight in which we will see Captain Hindsight address the issues of . . . well we don't know right now, it hasn't happened yet.
Yes, that is Starmer's problem and it's why Labour are still behind in the polls. If Starmer had been warning about this in April and saying "we should keep schools and sixth form colleges open for A-Levels" then he'd be 5 points up and Boris would be in big trouble. But he didn't have the balls to face down the teachers union.
Indeed he's been leader of the Labour Party since April and he's had zero to say on this subject until it already blew up. The leader of the oppositions job isn't to point at something already happening and say "oh that's bad, you should have done that differently" its to oppose as you go along. This scheme was announced by OFQUAL months ago, it was adopted by all 4 countries and the Leader of the Opposition had nothing to say about it until just now.
When will Keir Starmer stop being Captain Hindsight and start being an actual Opposition leader? I won't be holding my breath.
We are talking about the same OFQual that wanted to enforce five year NDAs on the stats academics that requested access to their grading model here yes?
If OFQual had been a bit more open about their modelling approach from the outset, then it might be reasonable to complain that people are playing the hindsight game. Given that OFQual flatly refused to disclose the details of their model to anyone, this seems like an unreasonable approach to take.
Yeah because Captain Hindsight's party came up with an alternative solution it was proposing in advance and did something differently in Wales where its in government didn't it?
Oh wait, what's that . . . Captain Hindsight had squat to say this until in hindsight? Oh well, there's a shock.
Keep tuned at the same bat time, on the same bat channel for the next thrilling adventure of Captain Hindsight in which we will see Captain Hindsight address the issues of . . . well we don't know right now, it hasn't happened yet.
Yes, that is Starmer's problem and it's why Labour are still behind in the polls. If Starmer had been warning about this in April and saying "we should keep schools and sixth form colleges open for A-Levels" then he'd be 5 points up and Boris would be in big trouble. But he didn't have the balls to face down the teachers union.
Indeed he's been leader of the Labour Party since April and he's had zero to say on this subject until it already blew up. The leader of the oppositions job isn't to point at something already happening and say "oh that's bad, you should have done that differently" its to oppose as you go along. This scheme was announced by OFQUAL months ago, it was adopted by all 4 countries and the Leader of the Opposition had nothing to say about it until just now.
When will Keir Starmer stop being Captain Hindsight and start being an actual Opposition leader? I won't be holding my breath.
We are talking about the same OFQual that wanted to enforce five year NDAs on the stats academics that requested access to their grading model here yes?
If OFQual had been a bit more open about their modelling approach from the outset, then it might be reasonable to complain that people are playing the hindsight game. Given that OFQual flatly refused to disclose the details of their model to anyone, this seems like an unreasonable approach to take.
He's a Tory, we know flipped he'd take a different view.
He does to his credit go a little bit off CCHQ's lines occasionally but he's basically still here arguing the Tory line
I stand by my prediction the other day that Williamson stays and Cummings uses it as an excuse to smash up Ofqual and the DforEducation in another Number 10 power grab. Boris won't mind yet another impotent minister wholly dependent on his patronage. Just the ticket when the Cabinet Brexiteers are asked to reverse ferret at the end of the year.
But what's that mug doing there in the middle of the table where he can't possibly reach it?
PB is a wonderful place. No where else on the internet would I have learnt that the only person at fault over the A level shambles is Keir Starmer.
It's wonderfully balanced, isn't it?
I'm the only person here who seems to think he's alright
Sir Keir is not Jeremy. That means that I am no longer scared of a Labour government.
I might not agree with everything he wants to do (and to be honest I’m not sure I know much of what he wants to do) but I am fairly sure that he has the best interests of the country at heart, which I certainly was not with his predecessor.
So yes, he is alright.
Doesn’t mean I’ll vote for him, but in four years, who knows.
He probably wants 2017-lite, so a bit of railway nationalisation here a a bit of wealth tax there
PB is a wonderful place. No where else on the internet would I have learnt that the only person at fault over the A level shambles is Keir Starmer.
It's wonderfully balanced, isn't it?
I'm the only person here who seems to think he's alright
Sir Keir is not Jeremy. That means that I am no longer scared of a Labour government.
I might not agree with everything he wants to do (and to be honest I’m not sure I know much of what he wants to do) but I am fairly sure that he has the best interests of the country at heart, which I certainly was not with his predecessor.
So yes, he is alright.
Doesn’t mean I’ll vote for him, but in four years, who knows.
He probably wants 2017-lite, so a bit of railway nationalisation here a a bit of wealth tax there
To be honest the railways will probably end up de facto nationalised anyway by 2024 if they are to survive in an era of C19.
I know her slightly. Bright and charming and very involved with the NHS.
She's objectively shit.
No, she’s not. I suspect she has achieved more in her career than you will. She was on the operating board of Sainsbury’s, and successfully de merged and ran TalkTalk. At its peak the share price had more than doubled. She then screwed up the handling of two major IT security issues. Since she left Talk Talk (when the share price was up on the IPO price) it has more than doubled. Since then she has worked extensively with the NHS.
Overall solid, if not exceptional, with a couple of major errors. Not “objectively shit”.
I know her slightly. Bright and charming and very involved with the NHS.
She's objectively shit.
No, she’s not. I suspect she has achieved more in her career than you will. She was on the operating board of Sainsbury’s, and successfully de merged and ran TalkTalk. At its peak the share price had more than doubled. She then screwed up the handling of two major IT security issues. Since she left Talk Talk (when the share price was up on the IPO price) it has more than doubled. Since then she has worked extensively with the NHS.
Overall solid, if not exceptional, with a couple of major errors. Not “objectively shit”.
What’s the basis for your assessment?
Share price doubling after she left is hardly a good thing for her.
Simply, she's an analogue person trying to make it in the digital age.
You also can't compare what she has "achieved" in her career aged 60 or whatever it is to someone like CHB who is in his mid 20s. For all we know he could go on to found a mega tech startup.
Frankly your defence of her is weak, and you are also an analogue person in the digital era. Doesn't matter because your family wealth allows for that and your family business is probably better served that way. However, no one is asking you to run a government quango which will have oversight of basically all health data so it doesn't matter.
I know her slightly. Bright and charming and very involved with the NHS.
She's objectively shit.
No, she’s not. I suspect she has achieved more in her career than you will. She was on the operating board of Sainsbury’s, and successfully de merged and ran TalkTalk. At its peak the share price had more than doubled. She then screwed up the handling of two major IT security issues. Since she left Talk Talk (when the share price was up on the IPO price) it has more than doubled. Since then she has worked extensively with the NHS.
Overall solid, if not exceptional, with a couple of major errors. Not “objectively shit”.
What’s the basis for your assessment?
"Since she left the company the share price improved" is not the ringing endorsement you think it is.
Comments
Edited: I am sorry to keep reposting this but it is relevant here: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/16/rewards-for-failure/.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGQq3HcOB0Y
I'm the only person here who seems to think he's alright
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-2084868/Customer-service-TalkTalk-gets-Wooden-Spoon-award-AGAIN.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
According to the article she refused to pose with both wooden spoons she "won" as TalkTalk boss because that would be "too much". Bonkers.
And how about the kicking an unconscious man. Is that ok?
Q.4. A memento of his last day in office
🙄
I might not agree with everything he wants to do (and to be honest I’m not sure I know much of what he wants to do) but I am fairly sure that he has the best interests of the country at heart, which I certainly was not with his predecessor.
So yes, he is alright.
Doesn’t mean I’ll vote for him, but in four years, who knows.
If OFQual had been a bit more open about their modelling approach from the outset, then it might be reasonable to complain that people are playing the hindsight game. Given that OFQual flatly refused to disclose the details of their model to anyone, this seems like an unreasonable approach to take.
He does to his credit go a little bit off CCHQ's lines occasionally but he's basically still here arguing the Tory line
But what's that mug doing there in the middle of the table where he can't possibly reach it?
This Tory Government is just the same as the last one.
Overall solid, if not exceptional, with a couple of major errors. Not “objectively shit”.
What’s the basis for your assessment?
I think some people secretly yearn to find them so they can give licence to unleash their basest impulses.
This is why we have laws.
What a wanker he is.
Simply, she's an analogue person trying to make it in the digital age.
You also can't compare what she has "achieved" in her career aged 60 or whatever it is to someone like CHB who is in his mid 20s. For all we know he could go on to found a mega tech startup.
Frankly your defence of her is weak, and you are also an analogue person in the digital era. Doesn't matter because your family wealth allows for that and your family business is probably better served that way. However, no one is asking you to run a government quango which will have oversight of basically all health data so it doesn't matter.