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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris
First Biden-Harris polling finds one in four Republicans backing Biden's VP choicehttps://t.co/3dJ8JQV6YQ pic.twitter.com/3tiQHQpfhz
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I'm really confused what answer you expected, if my answering that question was "condescending"? Was I supposed to say there is no answer, rather than give the answer I gave?
Edit: or third, like ... err ... Ralph Nader.
My point about 10 years was that the Tories have been in power since 2010 and have not resolved this issue. Saying it's dropped down to 39 isn't at all helpful to people who are in my position and stuck renting (literally throwing money down the drain) and can't afford to buy. That's indefensible.
I was simply explaining why we don't vote Tory. And no amount of condescending, or saying "just wait a bit longer" is going to change that fact. You've had 10 years, you haven't resolved it.
Anyway, I can see as usual this debate is completely circular so I'm going to leave it there.
PHE all settings -
https://twitter.com/themendozawoman/status/1294944245506347009?s=21
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
Again, be careful of the state polls - only one pollster got Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016 (Trafalgar in both) and nobody got Wisconsin.
I'm not sure why you should automatically be able to get one in your 20s given that assuming you went to university you have not been earning until your 20s? If you can get one in your 20s then great! If you can't then hopefully you can get one in your thirties.
Saying its dropped is very defensible. You're not going to be in your 20s forever, if its dropping then that is fantastic. If it is going up, then that is awful. Under Labour the crossover age was going up which was essentially saying that prior generations who owned their home still owned it but younger people couldn't get on the ladder even as they grew up. Under the Tories its reversing and younger people are getting on the ladder at an ever earlier age currently.
There is more to do, but the original problem has been solved. You're dismissing the original problem of a decade ago because it no longer affects you, that's great. The fact that you don't like the improved situation we are now in is not bad, it just means there's more that needs to be done.
But here's the curious thing. Wanting to buy a house, settle down, raise a family, make a bit of money, generally get on in life and be comfortable are very small C conservative values.
Which is why it's such an oddity the Conservatives seem hell bent on protecting boomer wealth in housing stock above all other factors.
Under the Tories ownership rates are going up now and house prices have plateaued.
I'm curious which of those scenarios @CorrectHorseBattery prefers?
Both HM & RC thought is was good policy AND good politics. That was the case in their day - and still is.
They simply do not care about me, I accept that. But I think it's incredibly arrogant for somebody here to condescend me with policies that have failed to resolve the problem and to ask me to just wait longer.
Why should I wait longer? I contribute to society just as much as anyone else does, I should be able to afford to buy my own home, as people used to be able to do. That's not "me me me", that's surely a mark of simple fairness.
The original contention I had was the young vote Tory. They evidently do not.
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Precisely the point, we have a strong polish cohort here and while I have no problem with polish people I know one woman personally who is running a cafe and getting friends over employing them for 16 hours each and they are then all claiming tax credits and give her a small cut....apparently its quite a common thing according to my polish friends. Not sure I see how that benefits Britain exactly. Those poles I know doing better quality jobs such as plumber and electrician are just as fed up with it as we all should be.
Ah the old "I'm not racist because I know some Polish people".
And how many British people sit around all day and do sod all?
Immigrants make a NET contribution, there are always bad apples and as a country we can send them home after three months under EU law yet we never bothered to use this power.
What my problem with the immigration debate is that you can pick out bad people and then apply that to all immigrants yet I never see the same treatment happen to all the British people who sit and claim benefits.
The reality is, we need immigration and it's been a net benefit to our country. The care sector is in an utter state right now because the EU immigrants feel so unwelcome they left the country and went home
There found it it note the Ah the old "I'm not racist because I know some Polish people".
This post was what earned you your epithet and no don't apologize because I will never forgive you for labelling me a racist .
You can buy a house with a 5% deposit under Help To Buy. Do you think that should be 0%?
In fact, we are getting Eastern WA's typical weather, because high pressure in North Pacific is pulling hot, dry desert air our way.
SO what's it like your location?
All the best.
All the best.
The Tories simply do not build enough houses. Houses are too expensive for many to afford, even if they do save for a deposit.
The reality is, house prices need to come down or people need to earn a lot more money.
I think help to buy helped house builders a great deal more than first time buyers by keeping prices high and artificially inflating the market when they should have fallen. Ditto Rishi's stamp duty holiday.
These measures are aimed at protecting the wealth of existing owners, not at helping new buyers.
Sure, she polls great with African Americans, but I'm convinced that ANYONE Biden selected would have done well with Black Americans.
Real deal is that NON Black voters, including many Republicans, mostly consider Kamala Harris to be a respectable, even superior selection. For reasons that (also mostly) have more to do with the content of her character than the color of her skin.
BLM gave her a huge boost this year. However, she'd already established her credentials with engaged Democrats and other likely voters BEFORE the killing of George Floyd.
Saving for five years (on an average salary) will put you nowhere close to being able to afford a deposit.
Helping house builders hurts existing owners, it doesn't help them! If house builders are helped then it means that the supply of homes goes up (as has happened) which drives the price of homes down (as has happened). Since these schemes went in house price to wage ratios have gone down after decades of going up.
More new homes = more cheaper homes = easier for first time buyers to get on the ladder.
Plus the hardest part of getting on the ladder is getting the deposit.
House prices need to fall. I am sorry if that hurts you but that's the reality.
And New Labour didn't get a grip on it either, not disputing that.
Which does NOT preclude possibility that they could get something ELSE wrong this year, but DOES lower chances they will make the same errors as four years ago.
Like the debt, if you have no deficit but have growth then debt-to-GDP goes down.
If you have plateaued house prices but wage growth then house price-to-wage ratios goes down.
In the last few years the Tories have managed both.
I wonder how he would get on in the face of today's BLM activists?
At least there's no taking exotic foreign lands for granted, or stereotyping, here.
"Meet Max Gogarty - 19, from north London, spends his money on food, booze and skinny jeans, writes for Skins in his spare time. He's off to India and Thailand to have a good time, and you can join him in his weekly blog
...
Hello. I'm Max Gogarty. I'm 19 and live on top of a hill in north London.
At the minute, I'm working in a restaurant with a bunch of lovely, funny people; writing a play; writing bits for Skins; spending any sort of money I earn on food and skinny jeans, and drinking my way to a financially blighted two-month trip to India and Thailand. Clichéd I know, but clichés are there for a reason.
I'm kinda shitting myself about travelling. Well not so much the travelling part. It's India that scares me. The heat, the roads, the snakes, Australian travellers. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited. But shitting myself.
...
Anyway, you could come with me every step of the way - well, not every step. Just a few minutes once a week, via this blog. Even so, I'll do my best to tell of the debauched beach parties, the dodgy days with "washing machine" tummy, the messy late-night stumblings into bars and, of course, all that bullshit about finding myself."
And joyous comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/blog/2008/feb/14/skinsblog
If you can save £100 a month for five years into a Lifetime ISA that is £6000, which can be used as a deposit of £7,200 which at 5% is a house worth £144,000.
Near me there are new builds available at that price under the Help to Buy scheme.
"Let's interfere in the market to keep house prices artificially high, so house builders will build more houses!" is a circular, self-defeating argument.
The house prices are still too high. The huge deposits required are out of reach to most without parental help, and those who can afford the extortionate price of a rabbit hutch end up saddled with a huge amount of debt for the rest of their lives.
And don't even get me started on the leasehold scandal. But we've got to help those poor, unfortunate house builders, right!?
£144,000 will buy you nothing in the proximity of London.
The scheme doesn't make prices high, it makes prices go down not up.
At 5% deposit it isn't out of reach of most which is why most are able to get on the housing ladder eventually.
If you think that the wailing about lockdown, care home deaths and exam results has been bad, just wait until large numbers of mortgage payers find themselves toiling to service loans that are worth less than the sale value of their homes. No fat profits to finance moves, to cash in on downsizing, or to bail themselves out of their debts if they can no longer afford to service their mortgages. The nationwide howls of agony would be deafening.
Take Nationwide's decision to insist on 75% of a deposit being your own money (not mum and dad's) for their 90% mortgage. Also, they aren't allowing those mortgages on new builds as they expect the prices of pokey new builds to crash.
But yes Londoners should commute is the general idea isn't it? Not that it is my area of expertise, so I am not speaking about London. But Londoners also earn more wages so should be able to save more than £100 a month hopefully.
For a couple if they could save £250 a month for five years between them that would provide the deposit of a £360,000 house.
It means prices staying the same while wages rise.
I feel like you're talking out of your rear.
So no I'm not. If you want to read into it about London then that's about you not me.
To put that together in five years is £500 per month, which means an gross income of £40,000+. That's fine for the professions but not many other people.
The Tory government made some progress in controlling the deficit but until they can sterilise the debt (ie sell the debt on the BoE balance sheet to third party investors and cancel the proceeds) then that’s not going to change.
Hence you need to reduce house prices over time by basically keeping them as flat as possible in nominal terms while wages increase. You can’t just cut prices because that will destroy the banking sector.
Fundamentally it’s a mess. But it’s unreasonable to expect the government to “solve it”. There are no good options and it is going to take time to unwind the fundamental damage down in the 2000s. The West was living beyond our means in a big way and we are still paying the price
Max normal multiple at present is around 4.5x salary. Though I think the deposit would perhaps need to be 10% for highstreet lenders.
Plus aiui Help to Buy offers an interest free loan of 20% of value (40% in London)
In the medium term a large fall in house prices wouldn't be a bad thing. The problem is the getting there. I suspect today's 30-somethings could be facing a difficult few years or more.
Since the Plague broke out and so many people found that they could work from home successfully, anecdata suggest that the numbers of Londoners actively interested in upping sticks and leaving have soared.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1295030243892310017?s=19
Also just got back from a very sunny week in Dorset with my partner and we got engaged too
The average house price in Grantham - which is 1 hr 15 minutes from Kings Cross - is £176,000.
A season ticket for Grantham to London varies from just under £8000 to just under £9000 depending on which service you use.
On that basis you could commute for a decade - spending £90,000 on season tickets - and still be better of by almost £180,000.
House price inflation happened before it. In 1997 the average UK house price was about £50,000 - by 2008 it was over £180,000. That is the problem.
New Labour screwed the young and we're still paying the price. That's what happens when Labour get in office.
ODE TO BILLY JOE
Bobbie Gentry
It was the third of June, another sleepy, dusty Delta day
I was out choppin' cotton and my brother was balin' hay
And at dinner time we stopped and walked back to the house to eat
And mama hollered out the back door, y'all remember to wipe your feet
And then she said I got some news this mornin' from Choctaw Ridge
Today, Billy Joe MacAllister jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge
And papa said to mama, as he passed around the blackeyed peas
Well Billy Joe never had a lick of sense; pass the biscuits please
There's five more acres in the lower forty I've got to plow
And mama said it was shame about Billy Joe anyhow
Seems like nothin' ever comes to no good up on Choctaw Ridge
And now Billy Joe MacAllister's jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge
And brother said he recollected when he, and Tom, and Billy Joe
Put a frog down my back at the Carroll County picture show
And wasn't I talkin' to him after church last Sunday night?
I'll have another piece of apple pie you know it don't seem right
I saw him at the sawmill yesterday on Choctaw Ridge
And now ya tell me Billy Joe's jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge
And mama said to me, child what's happened to your appetite?
I've been cookin' all morning and you haven't touched a single bite
That nice young preacher Brother Taylor dropped by today
Said he'd be pleased to have dinner on Sunday, oh, by the way
He said he saw a girl that looked a lot like you up on Choctaw Ridge
And she and Billy Joe was throwing somethin' off the Tallahatchie Bridge
A year has come and gone since we heard the news 'bout Billy Joe
And brother married Becky Thompson they bought a store in Tupelo
There was a virus going 'round; papa caught it and he died last spring
And now mama doesn't seem to want to do much of anything
And me, I spend a lot of time pickin' flowers up on Choctaw Ridge
And drop them into the muddy water off the Tallahatchie Bridge
My neighbour and I nearly had a heart attack when briefly they went up 5% in one day.
One of the reasons the conservatives lost the 97 election so big.
But Kamala Harris not markedly increasing Biden's lead is unsurprising. There cannot be too many Americans who hate Biden and were planning to vote for Trump but have now switched their allegiance because Kamala Harris has a nice smile.
Everyone laughed when Dan Quayle misspelled potato(e). No-one changed their vote.
Yes I agree Harris was picked more on the basis of being a potential POTUS if needed and being a safe pair of hands rather than on the basis she would pick up many new voters
If you're buying a £144,000 home under HTB with a £7200 deposit (from £6000 of your own cash + 20%) then that's £108,000 being borrowed at 75% LTV.
You do not by any means need an income of £70,000 to borrow £108,000. That would be a 1.54x multiple.
At £20,000 income with 2 people on the mortgage you can borrow £180,000 at a 4.5x multiple.
For most workers who used to go to offices in London, the days of having to shell out £5,000+ for a season ticket are over for good. In the medium term, those that do have to keep going in will be travelling part-time only, and many of them will probably be allowed to work flexible hours to avoid peak fares (if, indeed, the whole concept of peak fares, and milking those forced to pay them, even survives the fallout from the WFH revolution.)
Add to that the fact that the railways are going to have to be nationalised, which will apply a lot more direct pressure on ministers rather than the hated franchise operators to control fare inflation, and average commuting costs should tumble.
Else it is pointless under the Cameron doctrine of EVEL, presaged by Mr Johnson in that article of 2005 in which he said how outrageous it would be to have a Scottish MP as PM>
The very first preliminary data will start appearing in the next few weeks, as (at the very least) people in the control group will find themselves getting CV-19.
Oxford has the slight advantage as far as early testing goes because their vaccine is being trialled in countries with higher incidences of CV-19, while Moderna is mostly being tested in the US.
Nevertheless, we may well get some encouraging news sooner rather than later. (Albeit we may also get negative news!)
For me, I would be happy to commute into London in the future but for now my job is in London and that is where my friends and my social activities are.
So whilst I appreciate the advice on commuting in from far away, it's simply not feasible for me to do that. And frankly I simply do not think I should have to game the system in order to live where I want to.
The good Software Eng jobs are mostly concentrated around and and in London and since I have no intention of leaving, that is where I will keep working.
Like I said, many like me are in the same boat. We simply cannot afford a house in London or near by, without parental assistance. To me that's a massive scandal and an issue the Tories have failed to resolve.
I wish I had the luxury of working elsewhere but especially in the current climate, I am going to stick working where I can.
I hope the new ways of working will mean in time I can work from further out - but I do not see this having a huge impact regardless of where I commute in from, as I do not want to be too far away from my relatives or friends.
I hope that makes sense.
More time to post on PB then!
Fox jr has just bought (with his partner) a terraced house in fashionable Clarendon Park for £200 000, so nearly 5 times what I paid for a near identical house in 1992 when I moved to Leicester. The price is quite inflated, but his mortgage payments are more affordable as a percentage of income than mine were those decades ago.
Yes, he has student loan repayments, but I was paying 25% income tax, and with a much lower personal allowance, so tax is pretty much a wash too.
New York is finished for a decade, methinks,