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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Mr. Neil, are you disputing what I wrote regarding Labour's policies on energy and housing?

    Simply suggesting that someone who once stated that Labour was opposed to success cant be relied upon for a completely unbiased take on anything the Labour party says or does.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way, oh what fun there's to be had in a jingle jolly way - JackW's Jingle Jolly Chrimbo Quiz Question :

    Who are they and what links these three distinguished parliamentarians :

    a. Our Andrea's number one now resides in our mans old pad. £1.5M bought plenty then

    b. Bob's your uncle, Attlee thought him a top man among his peers. Blacks probably not.

    c. Red box problems abounded but he played a first class straight bat.



    c. Douglas-Home?

    Technically, of course, 'Bob's your uncle' actually refers to Arthur Balfour, but as he died in 1930 I doubt that Attlee had much to do with him.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Balfour
    Read the phrase a little more carefully. Does the phrase refer to Balfour ?

    I was just educating the masses (apart from yourself and Verulamius) rather than making a guess. Hence the word "technically"
    Perhaps you should guess. You are mighty close !!

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Austerity Works, Part 37:

    Ireland has just released GDP numbers for 3Q, and revised 2Q up. 2Q was previously forecast to be a 0.4% expansion, that's been increased to 1%. 3Q growth was forecast to 0.6%, and came in an outrageous 1.5%. In other words, in the last six months, the Irish economy has expanded by more than 2.5% - that's a 5.1% annual expansion rate.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited December 2013
    b. has something to do with the Salisbury Convention. The then Marquess of Salisbury (descendant of Bob of Uncle fame) agreed the convention that the House of Lords would not oppose Attlee's government's manifesto commitments. He would also be probably termed a 'racist' today, later advocating the exile of (Sir) Seretse Khama for the crime of marrying a white woman, and was a staunch supporter of South Africa and Rhodesia.


    just a bit convoluted, Jack!
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    So, you aren't actually disputing what I wrote?

    The fact I'm not pro-Labour isn't exactly tip-top secret.

    Furthermore, opinions can change over time. I look forward to the day when Labour has a more business-friendly leader, who wouldn't play politics over matters of war and peace.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    rcs1000 said:

    Austerity Works, Part 37:

    Ireland has just released GDP numbers for 3Q, and revised 2Q up. 2Q was previously forecast to be a 0.4% expansion, that's been increased to 1%. 3Q growth was forecast to 0.6%, and came in an outrageous 1.5%. In other words, in the last six months, the Irish economy has expanded by more than 2.5% - that's a 5.1% annual expansion rate.

    And GNP is outstripping GDP.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    The polling would suggest that gaining the approval of Messrs Jessop and Dancer is not a prerequisite to winning elections
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    Mr. Freggles, it must be said that whilst I am interested in politics, it's not my specialist subject.

    If Westminster were more like F1 half the frontbenches at least would be immediately fired. Although F1's seen as an elitist sport there's great scope for advancement for talented sorts. Stefano Domenicali, Ferrari team principal, began his career working in the car park.
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    On topic, I think it's (just) possible that there could be a non-outlier poll that puts the Tories ahead at the moment. Looking at the graph, the Labour lead seems to have declined from around 7 to 5 per cent in the last month. If the margin of error is still 3% (I've not checked sample size and don't know if Panel membership polls have a different MoE calculation from in-person polling), that could produce a result that was at the edge of the MoE by understating Labour by 3% and overstating the Tories by the same amount - the two being related factors. That would produce a 1% Tory lead even with an underlying position of Labour ahead by five.

    That said, I wouldn't anticipate it in the next two polls. There's only a 1 in 40 chance of a outlier favourable to the Tories and even including the marginal case, the prospect of one of the next two being such can't be more than about 1 in 15.

    Wouldn't it be delicious if the last poll of the year ended with a blue lead - then nothing for a week or more until the next one..... the way I'm calling things I'll predict a 12% lead for the reds in the last YouGov therefore!
    Mr Heap - Six percent for tomorrows poll and 5% for the Sunday poll. Remember last time who was nearer.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    So, you aren't actually disputing what I wrote?

    There's no need - what you said was self-evidently ridiculous.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    rcs1000 said:

    Austerity Works, Part 37:

    Ireland has just released GDP numbers for 3Q, and revised 2Q up. 2Q was previously forecast to be a 0.4% expansion, that's been increased to 1%. 3Q growth was forecast to 0.6%, and came in an outrageous 1.5%. In other words, in the last six months, the Irish economy has expanded by more than 2.5% - that's a 5.1% annual expansion rate.


    And also that Ireland had a fundamentally strong economy prior to the crash. I guess Osborne was right to praise their economic reforms.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    b. has something to do with the Salisbury Convention. The then Marquess of Salisbury (descendant of Bob of Uncle fame) agreed the convention that the House of Lords would not oppose Attlee's government's manifesto commitments. He would also be probably termed as 'racist' today, later advocating the exile of (Sir) Seretse Khama for the crime of marrying a white woman, and was a staunch supporter of South Africa and Rhodesia.


    just a bit convoluted, Jack!

    b is the Marquess of Salisbury. But not convoluted as I'll explain.

    Robert (Bob) Salisbury was succeeded as PM by his nephew Arthur Balfour which is thought to be the root of the phrase "Bob's your Uncle"

    In 1967 Attlee was asked to name the greatest PM of his lifetime and he perhaps surprisingly replied "Salisbury"

    The "black" reference notes Salisbury's view that blacks and other races were culturally unsuitable to sit in parliament.



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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    Freggles said:

    The polling would suggest that gaining the approval of Messrs Jessop and Dancer is not a prerequisite to winning elections

    So you think the energy and housing policies are sane, and should be taken forward if Miliband ever becomes PM?

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    Neil said:

    Simply suggesting that someone who once stated that Labour was opposed to success cant be relied upon for a completely unbiased take on anything the Labour party says or does.

    And who can be relied on for a completely unbiased take? We've all got our preconceptions, blind spots and so on; I think all we can do is acknowledge them and seek to bear them in mind when we're discussing the issues. Ask ourselves - am I being fair on this issue / person / organisation, or is my judgement clouded?
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I don't know much about the housing policies but I favour more building.
    I support the price freeze and the much ignored market reform that is the reason for the freeze.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited December 2013


    And who can be relied on for a completely unbiased take?

    Most people who are not so blinkered as to imagine that the other lot actually oppose success can at least be relied upon to give it a try. I mean most people disagree with their political opponents but to be so biased as to think that they actually oppose success?
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    Mr. Neil, which bit? The energy policy?:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25219453

    And Miliband did attack the profits housing firms were making, without mentioning most had suffered more losses than profits in recent years.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Neither of those policies would enrich me personally, by the way. I already get cheap energy fixes and own my own home.
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    Is a) Lord Palmerston?
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    Neil said:

    Simply suggesting that someone who once stated that Labour was opposed to success cant be relied upon for a completely unbiased take on anything the Labour party says or does.

    And who can be relied on for a completely unbiased take? We've all got our preconceptions, blind spots and so on; I think all we can do is acknowledge them and seek to bear them in mind when we're discussing the issues. Ask ourselves - am I being fair on this issue / person / organisation, or is my judgement clouded?
    "Ask ourselves - am I being fair on this issue / person / organisation, or is my judgement clouded?". You are joking aren't you? On this messageboard?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    JonathanD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Austerity Works, Part 37:

    Ireland has just released GDP numbers for 3Q, and revised 2Q up. 2Q was previously forecast to be a 0.4% expansion, that's been increased to 1%. 3Q growth was forecast to 0.6%, and came in an outrageous 1.5%. In other words, in the last six months, the Irish economy has expanded by more than 2.5% - that's a 5.1% annual expansion rate.


    And also that Ireland had a fundamentally strong economy prior to the crash. I guess Osborne was right to praise their economic reforms.
    Yes: but Ireland had a ridiculous building bubble that pretty much destroyed every bank in the country (and some of ours too). They rationalised the banks, cut government spending dramatically, and liberalised their labour markets. Result: near-term pain, longer-term gain.

    France and Italy have yet to learn this lesson.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    Freggles said:

    I don't know much about the housing policies but I favour more building.
    I support the price freeze and the much ignored market reform that is the reason for the freeze.

    I think most people support more house building - especially if it is somewhere else. I must be one of the few people on here keen to see more housing built in their area, although the desire is tempered by my often-stated caveats. (*)

    That's why the coalition is ramping up construction. After all, Labour weren't exactly too enamoured with house building during the boom, were they? (cough) Pathfinder (cough).

    I suggest you read up on the energy markets and the investment that is required before you accept an energy price freeze as being sane. And Miliband did not want reforms in the markets when he was in charge at DECC, and actually wanted to see increased energy prices ...

    (*) My desire for more housing in South Cambridgeshire rather riles Mr Kendrick. ;-)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Is a) Lord Palmerston?

    No not Lord Palmerston.

    Further Clue - Was the primrose his favourite flower ?

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    A juicy royal story coming out of the phone hacking trial - should be good for a few headlines.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25450055
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    b. has something to do with the Salisbury Convention. The then Marquess of Salisbury (descendant of Bob of Uncle fame) agreed the convention that the House of Lords would not oppose Attlee's government's manifesto commitments. He would also be probably termed as 'racist' today, later advocating the exile of (Sir) Seretse Khama for the crime of marrying a white woman, and was a staunch supporter of South Africa and Rhodesia.


    just a bit convoluted, Jack!

    b is the Marquess of Salisbury. But not convoluted as I'll explain.

    Robert (Bob) Salisbury was succeeded as PM by his nephew Arthur Balfour which is thought to be the root of the phrase "Bob's your Uncle"

    In 1967 Attlee was asked to name the greatest PM of his lifetime and he perhaps surprisingly replied "Salisbury"

    The "black" reference notes Salisbury's view that blacks and other races were culturally unsuitable to sit in parliament.



    Yet in his time were there not one or two Asian MP's?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited December 2013
    a) is Rosebery

    and the connection is Christ Church, Oxford...

    [edit: and I figured it before the Primrose clue]
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    I don't know much about the housing policies but I favour more building.
    I support the price freeze and the much ignored market reform that is the reason for the freeze.

    I think most people support more house building - especially if it is somewhere else. I must be one of the few people on here keen to see more housing built in their area, although the desire is tempered by my often-stated caveats. (*)

    That's why the coalition is ramping up construction. After all, Labour weren't exactly too enamoured with house building during the boom, were they? (cough) Pathfinder (cough).

    I suggest you read up on the energy markets and the investment that is required before you accept an energy price freeze as being sane. And Miliband did not want reforms in the markets when he was in charge at DECC, and actually wanted to see increased energy prices ...

    (*) My desire for more housing in South Cambridgeshire rather riles Mr Kendrick. ;-)

    Freggles said:

    I don't know much about the housing policies but I favour more building.
    I support the price freeze and the much ignored market reform that is the reason for the freeze.


    Regarding the past Labour government, they had different leadership in a different environment. Do you expect Miliband to invade Iraq again?

    I'd be happy for more houses to be built in the North East, not much of a growth area though.

    As for the energy companies, I thought the line was they'll put prices up before the freeze to compensate? One or the other, not both.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    I must be bored. I'm reading an article called: "Using Deterministic Chaos for Superefficient Monte Carlo Simulations"

    I'm not sure I understand it... :-(
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Can't seem to edit that post on my phone, apologies....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    b. has something to do with the Salisbury Convention. The then Marquess of Salisbury (descendant of Bob of Uncle fame) agreed the convention that the House of Lords would not oppose Attlee's government's manifesto commitments. He would also be probably termed as 'racist' today, later advocating the exile of (Sir) Seretse Khama for the crime of marrying a white woman, and was a staunch supporter of South Africa and Rhodesia.


    just a bit convoluted, Jack!

    b is the Marquess of Salisbury. But not convoluted as I'll explain.

    Robert (Bob) Salisbury was succeeded as PM by his nephew Arthur Balfour which is thought to be the root of the phrase "Bob's your Uncle"

    In 1967 Attlee was asked to name the greatest PM of his lifetime and he perhaps surprisingly replied "Salisbury"

    The "black" reference notes Salisbury's view that blacks and other races were culturally unsuitable to sit in parliament.



    Yet in his time were there not one or two Asian MP's?
    Two in fact :

    The first Asian MP was Dadabhai Naoroji in 1892 followed by Mancherjee Bhowna.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    isam said:

    Wow, yesterday it was King George's in East London, and Queens in Romford on special measures, now Colchester Hospitals cancer treatment has been deemed unsafe, and staff have been accused of falsifying info

    Essex not the place to get ill

    Do keep up. The Colchester story has been floating about for a couple of weeks. Allegedly another case of top management bullying those lower down the food chain to meet targets.

    Yesterday admittedly, there was a new twist when the Chief Exec resigned.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Whose else is a non citizen?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25437011

    What else can be erased from the past?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JackW said:

    New Clues :

    a. Our Andrea's number one now resides in our mans old pad. £1.5M bought plenty then
    New Clue - See Naples and die .... from the bay terrace.

    b. Bob's your uncle, Attlee thought him a top man among his peers. Blacks probably not.
    There were no Elizabeth I post boxes in Hatfield when my kinsman lived there.

    Presumably b. is Robert Cecil (although Bob was his Dad, not his uncle). He was the head of 4 Paper Buildings when Attlee had Chambers there. I'm not sure about the link to Blacks - the Salisbury Group was named after Bob rather than Cecil.
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    Neil said:

    I mean most people disagree with their political opponents but to be so biased as to think that they actually oppose success?

    I don't think such bias (as you call it) is confined to one part of the political spectrum. Yes, there are certainly Conservative politicians and commentators who accuse Labour of being anti-success; but there are some on the Labour side who accuse the Conservatives of hating poor people, for example, or if thinking all people claiming benefits are scroungers. There's over-simplification on both sides, I think.

    One good test for me is to look at whether someone ever has a good thing to say about their political opponents or ever has a criticism of those on their 'side'. For example, if I never have anything bad to say about the Lib Dems (I'm a party member but not actively involved at the moment) then, frankly, I'm only worth ignoring.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    I don't think such bias (as you call it) is confined to one part of the political spectrum.

    Who said it was?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    Freggles said:



    Regarding the past Labour government, they had different leadership in a different environment. Do you expect Miliband to invade Iraq again?

    I'd be happy for more houses to be built in the North East, not much of a growth area though.

    As for the energy companies, I thought the line was they'll put prices up before the freeze to compensate? One or the other, not both.

    The leadership argument is irrelevant: Miliband was at DECC and, as far as I am aware, never made any noise - not even a squeak - about a need for market reform at that time. I'd appreciate any information otherwise.

    There are many lines on what may happen under a price freeze - few scenarios are good for the long-term health of the industry. It would depend on exactly what Labour propose, but it would be hard to have something that really helps consumers without harming the companies' investments.

    But as we have seen on here, some people *want* the energy companies harmed.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited December 2013
    Good day to bury bad news?

    Being almost shot vs asking Kate to go fox hunting vs trail verdicts vs fake interpreter in hospital. Cameron must have been hoping to dump that Villiers story today, amongst other things.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,062
    Any political implications to this story?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25445869

    UK 'was inappropriately involved in rendition'
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    a) is Rosebery

    and the connection is Christ Church, Oxford...

    Correct Rod.

    PM Lord Rosebery (Archibald Primrose) married a Rothschild heiress and subsequently purchased many homes including the Villa Delahante overlooking the Bay of Naples. It is now an official residence of the President of Italy but is known as "Villa Rosebery"

    Lord Rosebery is considered to be the wealthiest ever PM, leaving over £1.5M or approx. £64M in todays valuation

    Correct link, also Eton and they are also the last three PM's to serve whilst peers.

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    JackW said:

    RodCrosby said:

    b. has something to do with the Salisbury Convention. The then Marquess of Salisbury (descendant of Bob of Uncle fame) agreed the convention that the House of Lords would not oppose Attlee's government's manifesto commitments. He would also be probably termed as 'racist' today, later advocating the exile of (Sir) Seretse Khama for the crime of marrying a white woman, and was a staunch supporter of South Africa and Rhodesia.


    just a bit convoluted, Jack!

    b is the Marquess of Salisbury. But not convoluted as I'll explain.

    Robert (Bob) Salisbury was succeeded as PM by his nephew Arthur Balfour which is thought to be the root of the phrase "Bob's your Uncle"

    In 1967 Attlee was asked to name the greatest PM of his lifetime and he perhaps surprisingly replied "Salisbury"

    The "black" reference notes Salisbury's view that blacks and other races were culturally unsuitable to sit in parliament.

    Yet in his time were there not one or two Asian MP's?
    And an Asian peer as well, I believe.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    New Clues :

    a. Our Andrea's number one now resides in our mans old pad. £1.5M bought plenty then
    New Clue - See Naples and die .... from the bay terrace.

    b. Bob's your uncle, Attlee thought him a top man among his peers. Blacks probably not.
    There were no Elizabeth I post boxes in Hatfield when my kinsman lived there.

    Presumably b. is Robert Cecil (although Bob was his Dad, not his uncle). He was the head of 4 Paper Buildings when Attlee had Chambers there. I'm not sure about the link to Blacks - the Salisbury Group was named after Bob rather than Cecil.
    I think you're a wee bit confused.

    PM Robert (Bob) Cecil, Marquees of Salisbury, was the uncle to his successor Arthur Balfour - hence "Bob's your Uncle"

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    Neil said:


    I don't think such bias (as you call it) is confined to one part of the political spectrum.

    Who said it was?
    Okay, fine. We're agreed then!
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    What could 'no evidence British officers were directly involved in torture' imply? Not present, not carrying out action of torture, 10 yards away.
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    In other news, another Kinnock aims for a parliamentary seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25440895
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Stephen Kinnock
    Stephen Kinnock says 'politics is in my blood'

    Seems his father's hairline is too !
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Well done PB Quizmeisters !!

    All good fun. I'm a wee bit busy tomorrow morning but I'll endeavour to knock out another corker, perhaps in the early afternoon.
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    I'm not quite sure how his marriage works. If he's going to be spending almost all his time in London and Aberavon that doesn't leave a lot of time to see the wife in Copenhagen.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Stephen Kinnock
    Stephen Kinnock says 'politics is in my blood'

    Seems his father's hairline is too !

    'ALRIGGHHHHTTTTT!!!'

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    Pulpstar said:

    What Miliband needs to do is get one or two business bods on board near to the election. Not necessarily the full Tony Blair complement, but opposing is all well and good - come nearer the time a smidgen of credibility is needed.

    I wouldn't suggest he should do this now as it will have fizzled by the time of the election. December 2014 might be a good time to break out the photo ops with some Johnny-come-lately Labour Business convert.

    The wrinkle is that he's been quite successful in hosing off the smell of mild corruption and a Labour Party that seemed a little bit too comfortable hanging around with rich people. He needs businesspeople, but _austere_ businesspeople.

    I thought they should have been harrassing (Olympus ex-CEO and whistle-blower) Michael Woodford with a view to getting him elected as an MP, but failing that maybe he'd go on telly for them. He's got a book out and the extra publicity presumably wouldn't do that much harm. He's got exactly the backstory they need, and he's very good at media:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiCdp0yY-6k
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Pulpstar said:

    Stephen Kinnock
    Stephen Kinnock says 'politics is in my blood'

    Seems his father's hairline is too !

    'ALRIGGHHHHTTTTT!!!'
    It's times like this I really miss the "like" system.
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    New Thread
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    TGOHF said:

    Isn't December 2011 a bad comparison because Vetogasm was happening then.

    It's a pretty sad retreat position - now there is economic good news and a tightening of the polls, Cam haters have turned on him for not being as good as a specific point in the past.

    What next ? He isn't as funny as he used to be ? *


    * (c) Viz

    He was never funny
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