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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An opportunity for Sir Keir to set the agenda

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  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Biden back out to 1.71 on Betfair
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Still the delusion continues. When will they finally wakeup?

    "“Germany needs a trade deal with Britain for its manufacturing and France needs it for its argi-produce, so the UK is in a very strong position to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.” - Tory MP in Telegraph
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    Peterhouse admissions posts on these concerns from a week ago on TSR fyi:

    "Thank you for this data - you have clearly put a lot of work in! In response to your questions, we would not ask the school for the predictions, but we absolutely will be looking at the school's historical data (both the GCSE scores of this cohort and the A level scores of previous cohorts) to look at whether the standardised grade we receive is reliable, exactly as you suggest."

    "When we say 'be flexible' we mean that we would relax the conditions of an offer, so accept a student whose grades fall slightly short of what we ask for. This is normal: we do it every year. What is different about this year is that we will be looking in more detail at the performance of the school as a whole and the performance of previous cohorts against whom applicants have been standardised (and this cohort at GCSE, if applicable) when making this decision."

    Now that is an interesting admission from Peterhouse, as normally the position of both Oxford and Cambridge is they *don’t* accept students if they don’t get the grades.

    I always thought that was probably not true in practice, but it’s useful to have it confirmed.

    Good luck to Scrapheap Jr. She’s been shafted often enough by exams as we’ve discussed before. Really hope she gets into Peterhouse.
    Thank you - the guinea pig year as they are called - but sadly she didn't get an offer from the Cambs college she applied to (despite being awarded an essay prize in Y12 to that college). Round here grammar school numbers getting in to Oxbridge seem to be being squeezed out by other types of state school (and private) partly because they don't have the resources for proper application support for their Oxbridge candidates nor do Grammars fit the widening access campaign either. We were very naive in the support we should have sought for her it seems!

    She's got Durham or Bristol if she goes but most likely reapplying for 2021 depending on what A levels she does get awarded this week!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    On Topic - The Great Tory depression will give even the very uninspiring SKS a shot at becoming PM IMO

    I think the recession only damages the Government if it's clear we do a lot worse than other countries.
    I wouldn't be so sure. People might know on one level that everyone is doing badly, and so is it reasonable to blame the governmen if it is not particualrly bad (same as with Covid-19 generally), but at the end of the day if things feel bad people will be unhappy and may well lash out at the government.

    It's one reason I didn't think issues around whether we ever went into recession 2010-15 mattered (with various revisions to growth estimates I don't think we di din the end), since to the man in the street it felt how it felt, whether it was a technical recession or not. As it was the public didn't feel it so bad the government needed punishing.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883

    Still the delusion continues. When will they finally wakeup?

    "“Germany needs a trade deal with Britain for its manufacturing and France needs it for its argi-produce, so the UK is in a very strong position to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.” - Tory MP in Telegraph

    "We hold all the Cards"ers are in for a rude awakening.

    Cue more WW2 phrases involving bunkering and British spirit
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    That branding font and colours looks familar.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    Peterhouse admissions posts on these concerns from a week ago on TSR fyi:

    "Thank you for this data - you have clearly put a lot of work in! In response to your questions, we would not ask the school for the predictions, but we absolutely will be looking at the school's historical data (both the GCSE scores of this cohort and the A level scores of previous cohorts) to look at whether the standardised grade we receive is reliable, exactly as you suggest."

    "When we say 'be flexible' we mean that we would relax the conditions of an offer, so accept a student whose grades fall slightly short of what we ask for. This is normal: we do it every year. What is different about this year is that we will be looking in more detail at the performance of the school as a whole and the performance of previous cohorts against whom applicants have been standardised (and this cohort at GCSE, if applicable) when making this decision."

    Now that is an interesting admission from Peterhouse, as normally the position of both Oxford and Cambridge is they *don’t* accept students if they don’t get the grades.

    I always thought that was probably not true in practice, but it’s useful to have it confirmed.

    Good luck to Scrapheap Jr. She’s been shafted often enough by exams as we’ve discussed before. Really hope she gets into Peterhouse.
    Thank you - the guinea pig year as they are called - but sadly she didn't get an offer from the Cambs college she applied to (despite being awarded an essay prize in Y12 to that college). Round here grammar school numbers getting in to Oxbridge seem to be being squeezed out by other types of state school (and private) partly because they don't have the resources for proper application support for their Oxbridge candidates nor do Grammars fit the widening access campaign either. We were very naive in the support we should have sought for her it seems!

    She's got Durham or Bristol if she goes but most likely reapplying for 2021 depending on what A levels she does get awarded this week!
    Still good luck to her, whichever choice she makes.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    Still the delusion continues. When will they finally wakeup?

    "“Germany needs a trade deal with Britain for its manufacturing and France needs it for its argi-produce, so the UK is in a very strong position to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.” - Tory MP in Telegraph

    "We hold all the Cards"ers are in for a rude awakening.

    Cue more WW2 phrases involving bunkering and British spirit
    I think he correct expression is ‘cue a blitz on WWII phrases.’
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    "The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016."

    So, who does he pick for 2020?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Still the delusion continues. When will they finally wakeup?

    "“Germany needs a trade deal with Britain for its manufacturing and France needs it for its argi-produce, so the UK is in a very strong position to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.” - Tory MP in Telegraph

    What do Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg, Poland, Hungary, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Ireland... (god there are a lot of them!) need?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    ydoethur said:

    Still the delusion continues. When will they finally wakeup?

    "“Germany needs a trade deal with Britain for its manufacturing and France needs it for its argi-produce, so the UK is in a very strong position to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.” - Tory MP in Telegraph

    "We hold all the Cards"ers are in for a rude awakening.

    Cue more WW2 phrases involving bunkering and British spirit
    I think he correct expression is ‘cue a blitz on WWII phrases.’
    OK Hun
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    ydoethur said:

    Peterhouse admissions posts on these concerns from a week ago on TSR fyi:

    "Thank you for this data - you have clearly put a lot of work in! In response to your questions, we would not ask the school for the predictions, but we absolutely will be looking at the school's historical data (both the GCSE scores of this cohort and the A level scores of previous cohorts) to look at whether the standardised grade we receive is reliable, exactly as you suggest."

    "When we say 'be flexible' we mean that we would relax the conditions of an offer, so accept a student whose grades fall slightly short of what we ask for. This is normal: we do it every year. What is different about this year is that we will be looking in more detail at the performance of the school as a whole and the performance of previous cohorts against whom applicants have been standardised (and this cohort at GCSE, if applicable) when making this decision."

    Now that is an interesting admission from Peterhouse, as normally the position of both Oxford and Cambridge is they *don’t* accept students if they don’t get the grades.

    I always thought that was probably not true in practice, but it’s useful to have it confirmed.

    Good luck to Scrapheap Jr. She’s been shafted often enough by exams as we’ve discussed before. Really hope she gets into Peterhouse.
    A friend of mine at Oxford got in with AAB. Our tutor told us that there are always a few places available due to grades not being met and they decide who to let in on the basis of the school’s history of getting kids into Oxford (my friend’s school didn’t have a great record hence he got in).
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    When is GOP Nominee confirmed I see Trump is 1.04
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    On Topic - The Great Tory depression will give even the very uninspiring SKS a shot at becoming PM IMO

    I think the recession only damages the Government if it's clear we do a lot worse than other countries.
    I wouldn't be so sure. People might know on one level that everyone is doing badly, and so is it reasonable to blame the governmen if it is not particualrly bad (same as with Covid-19 generally), but at the end of the day if things feel bad people will be unhappy and may well lash out at the government.

    It's one reason I didn't think issues around whether we ever went into recession 2010-15 mattered (with various revisions to growth estimates I don't think we di din the end), since to the man in the street it felt how it felt, whether it was a technical recession or not. As it was the public didn't feel it so bad the government needed punishing.
    So bad they elected Cameron again with a majority
  • Options

    "The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016."

    So, who does he pick for 2020?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

    Spoiler: Biden
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883

    "The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016."

    So, who does he pick for 2020?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

    7 mins in he goes for a narrow Biden win (1.71 on Betfair)
  • Options
    humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    It's no wonder there are so many migrants crossing the channel to escape France. An article in the Sunday Times states that on Friday Le Figaro declared " With its daily unfurling of violence, France seems to be on the verge of imploding."

    Of course, they may also want to escape the rapid increase in Covid infections in mainland Europe.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723

    "The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016."

    So, who does he pick for 2020?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

    7 mins in he goes for a narrow Biden win (1.71 on Betfair)
    But worth seeing how he gets to that conclusion.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,900
    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    There are plenty of examples where somehow "getting into power and trying something" was a disaster for the citizens of that country. One such country is "voting" today.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    eristdoof said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    There are plenty of examples where somehow "getting into power and trying something" was a disaster for the citizens of that country. One such country is "voting" today.
    Really? I thought it wasn’t until November.

    Oh, sorry, you meant Belarus.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Trump's ideas for second term:

    https://spectator.us/trump-second-term-agenda/
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,783

    "The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016."

    So, who does he pick for 2020?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

    7 mins in he goes for a narrow Biden win (1.71 on Betfair)
    I guessed he would, since the NYT probably wouldn't have published the article had he predicted another Trump win.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,008
    Discover he can't do anything and pocket the money...
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    ydoethur said:

    Now if the system is being rigged in favour of public schools, why would they be wanting lawyers?
    In light of these stories all schools will want lawyers. It’s just private schools have more discretion over how they spend their money so are able to brief them in advance.
    I read it as wanting lawyers to help deal with the parents...

    (Autocorrect wanted to put “lasers” instead of lawyers; I was tempted to leave it in...)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    edited August 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Now if the system is being rigged in favour of public schools, why would they be wanting lawyers?
    In light of these stories all schools will want lawyers. It’s just private schools have more discretion over how they spend their money so are able to brief them in advance.
    I read it as wanting lawyers to help deal with the parents...

    (Autocorrect wanted to put “lasers” instead of lawyers; I was tempted to leave it in...)
    Well, we could all do with some light relief.

    Edit - my suspicion is that they will argue they have been mis-sold a product and are due either a full refund or a grade adjustment. Which they have of course. OFQUAL is now contradicting earlier statements and therefore they have effectively admitted defrauding everyone who submitted grades.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    He’s going to strip naked and swim backwards and forwards along the beaches at Dover wearing a Donald Trump mask.

    The migrants will take one look and row straight back to Calais.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,016
    "Clandestine Channel Threat Commander" is a brilliant title. It's like something Idi Amin would come up with.

    The Royal Australian Navy playbook for this type of caper is there if they've got the stomach for it.
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    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
    If my school is anything to go by the requirements for Chemistry teaching are more strenuous: Northern and with a pulse.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited August 2020
    eristdoof said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    There are plenty of examples where somehow "getting into power and trying something" was a disaster for the citizens of that country. One such country is "voting" today.
    What an absolutely bizarre extrapolation of what was a very simple comment on party politics in democratic states, and that compromising with others to achieve something is worthwhile and can work in your favour, as it has for Adern.

    It might just be the most insane reactive take I have seen in a long long time.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
    If my school is anything to go by the requirements for Chemistry teaching are more strenuous: Northern and with a pulse.
    Chemistry is a complex subject. Stuff on the left goes bang when you put it in water. Stuff at the top comes up in biology. Stuff at the bottom is positively dangerous. You can see why the entry requirements are so rigorous.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,900
    kle4 said:

    eristdoof said:

    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    There are plenty of examples where somehow "getting into power and trying something" was a disaster for the citizens of that country. One such country is "voting" today.
    What an absolutely bizarre extrapolation of what was a very simple comment on party politics in democratic states, and that compromising with others to achieve something is worthwhile and can work in your favour, as it has for Adern.

    It might just be the most insane reactive take I have seen in a long long time.
    I find your reaction is way over the top! What Arden has done in New Zealand is very good.

    But the generalisation "Always worth getting into power and trying something" is inappropriate.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    Perhaps Dawn was driving Barack Obama around Hackney and the rozzers wanted his autograph?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,732
    Robot sharks with lasers is my tip.
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1292440230478467075

    Surprised the Sun are upset about this, they love sexualising young people
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,389
    edited August 2020
    alex_ said:

    geoffw said:

    "to know the effects of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic, we must study the one place that kept their schools open during the height of the pandemic. That place is Sweden."

    says Harvard expert.

    More on lockdownsceptics.



    One of the largest studies in the world on coronavirus in schools was carried out in 100 institutions in the UK. According to Professor Russel Viner, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of SAGE. “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools,” Professor Viner tells the Sunday Times. “This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere. Britain has done very well in terms of thinking of collecting data in schools.” The study, done by Public Health England, is due to be published later this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804

    On the basis of this, it's a bit of a mystery why there is any serious question about schools opening, or talk of "trading off pubs vs schools" whatsoever!

    I wonder if one reason why children don't seem to pass the virus on to adults very much is a rather basic one. If transmission is mainly through droplets (either through breathing/coughing etc or "hanging around in the air) then maybe children don't transmit to adults because they, er, generally have their mouths at different heights to those occupied by adults!!!
    Perhaps there is very little evidence of transfer in schools because the schools have been virtually empty for the whole time of covid?...just saying...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
    If my school is anything to go by the requirements for Chemistry teaching are more strenuous: Northern and with a pulse.
    Chemistry is a complex subject. Stuff on the left goes bang when you put it in water. Stuff at the top comes up in biology. Stuff at the bottom is positively dangerous. You can see why the entry requirements are so rigorous.
    Jeremy Corbyn goes bang if you put him in water?

    I never knew that!
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    ydoethur said:

    Peterhouse admissions posts on these concerns from a week ago on TSR fyi:

    "Thank you for this data - you have clearly put a lot of work in! In response to your questions, we would not ask the school for the predictions, but we absolutely will be looking at the school's historical data (both the GCSE scores of this cohort and the A level scores of previous cohorts) to look at whether the standardised grade we receive is reliable, exactly as you suggest."

    "When we say 'be flexible' we mean that we would relax the conditions of an offer, so accept a student whose grades fall slightly short of what we ask for. This is normal: we do it every year. What is different about this year is that we will be looking in more detail at the performance of the school as a whole and the performance of previous cohorts against whom applicants have been standardised (and this cohort at GCSE, if applicable) when making this decision."

    Now that is an interesting admission from Peterhouse, as normally the position of both Oxford and Cambridge is they *don’t* accept students if they don’t get the grades.

    I always thought that was probably not true in practice, but it’s useful to have it confirmed.

    Good luck to Scrapheap Jr. She’s been shafted often enough by exams as we’ve discussed before. Really hope she gets into Peterhouse.
    Grade relaxation is more likely this year as universities rush to fill places left open by those who think 2021 is a better bet, Covid-wise. It is probably the 2021 schoolleavers who get shafted by an above-average number of applications to compete against.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    Foxy said:

    Robot sharks with lasers is my tip.
    Sharks are getting rare. It will have to be a giant mutated sea bass.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,389

    ydoethur said:

    Peterhouse admissions posts on these concerns from a week ago on TSR fyi:

    "Thank you for this data - you have clearly put a lot of work in! In response to your questions, we would not ask the school for the predictions, but we absolutely will be looking at the school's historical data (both the GCSE scores of this cohort and the A level scores of previous cohorts) to look at whether the standardised grade we receive is reliable, exactly as you suggest."

    "When we say 'be flexible' we mean that we would relax the conditions of an offer, so accept a student whose grades fall slightly short of what we ask for. This is normal: we do it every year. What is different about this year is that we will be looking in more detail at the performance of the school as a whole and the performance of previous cohorts against whom applicants have been standardised (and this cohort at GCSE, if applicable) when making this decision."

    Now that is an interesting admission from Peterhouse, as normally the position of both Oxford and Cambridge is they *don’t* accept students if they don’t get the grades.

    I always thought that was probably not true in practice, but it’s useful to have it confirmed.

    Good luck to Scrapheap Jr. She’s been shafted often enough by exams as we’ve discussed before. Really hope she gets into Peterhouse.
    Grade relaxation is more likely this year as universities rush to fill places left open by those who think 2021 is a better bet, Covid-wise. It is probably the 2021 schoolleavers who get shafted by an above-average number of applications to compete against.
    Also, the students from foreign lands who decide not to come will need to be replaced...
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    25mph in a 20mph zone?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
    If my school is anything to go by the requirements for Chemistry teaching are more strenuous: Northern and with a pulse.
    Chemistry is a complex subject. Stuff on the left goes bang when you put it in water. Stuff at the top comes up in biology. Stuff at the bottom is positively dangerous. You can see why the entry requirements are so rigorous.
    Jeremy Corbyn goes bang if you put him in water?

    I never knew that!
    If that applies to the whole of the Labour Party, I have just found a fantastic use for Boris' infamous water cannon.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,732
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Robot sharks with lasers is my tip.
    Sharks are getting rare. It will have to be a giant mutated sea bass.
    Hence robot sharks...

    Though hasn't @Morris_Dancer got expertise in military use of mutated piscine vertebrates?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,105

    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    That branding font and colours looks familar.
    And unlike their Australian equivalent, they use the correct spelling. :)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Mornin' all!
    Sounds like 'You can't possibly have achieved an A; your school has never had a pupil with one before.'
    Hmmm.

    The primary school my younger son attended had, his year, three boys who were each capable of an 11+ 'pass' in the opinion of the experienced final year teacher. However, the rules said that only two could. On exam day my son had a cold.
    Result.... 6-7 years later he said that 'couldn't possibly have been 'that good' he'd failed his 11+, hadn't he?

    One thing that might happen as a result of this is that there is finally a very public debate about the way exams happen and why they are producing such inferior results for the poorest, who arguably stand to benefit the most from getting a good education.

    Obviously, there are a number of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with the exams themselves. But if it sparks a debate about class sizes and forces the government to lower them, and leads to an understanding that postcodes should be less important than talent in any system, as horrendous as this is going to be over the next three months at least some good will come of it.
    It should also spark a debate about the use of algorithms to make decisions about people’s lives. Why should we have any confidence in them, in who determines them, who writes them?
    My Medical School closes the feedback loop by looking at post entry performance, then goes back to analyse the multiple mini interviews, A levels, UCAS form etc to look at predictive ability.

    As a result of this process we have significantly altered selection process. We prefer post A level entrants, ignore UCAS personal statements, require A at A level Chemistry, but are more generous with other A levels etc. Boys are clearly socially less developed than girls at age 18, so we put in a critical analysis paper in place of one of the communication stations, as males on the course outperformed their communications interview etc etc.

    I don't think many courses, or professions for that matter, close the feedback loop so completely.
    The entry requirements for teaching Physics don’t tend to go much further than a pulse...

    Edit: that is to get onto the PGCE course, not to get a job afterwards.
    As @Foxy says, chemistry is the only subject that matters.

    Having said that, I think Dominic Cummings is still on the lookout for physicists who can work a Jupyter Notebook which is what passes for data science in DomWorld. Astronomers, probably.
    If my school is anything to go by the requirements for Chemistry teaching are more strenuous: Northern and with a pulse.
    Chemistry is a complex subject. Stuff on the left goes bang when you put it in water. Stuff at the top comes up in biology. Stuff at the bottom is positively dangerous. You can see why the entry requirements are so rigorous.
    Jeremy Corbyn goes bang if you put him in water?

    I never knew that!
    If that applies to the whole of the Labour Party, I have just found a fantastic use for Boris' infamous water cannon.
    I was thinking more it might explain why his leadership stank.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
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    ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited August 2020

    alex_ said:

    geoffw said:

    "to know the effects of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic, we must study the one place that kept their schools open during the height of the pandemic. That place is Sweden."

    says Harvard expert.

    More on lockdownsceptics.



    One of the largest studies in the world on coronavirus in schools was carried out in 100 institutions in the UK. According to Professor Russel Viner, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of SAGE. “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools,” Professor Viner tells the Sunday Times. “This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere. Britain has done very well in terms of thinking of collecting data in schools.” The study, done by Public Health England, is due to be published later this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804

    On the basis of this, it's a bit of a mystery why there is any serious question about schools opening, or talk of "trading off pubs vs schools" whatsoever!

    I wonder if one reason why children don't seem to pass the virus on to adults very much is a rather basic one. If transmission is mainly through droplets (either through breathing/coughing etc or "hanging around in the air) then maybe children don't transmit to adults because they, er, generally have their mouths at different heights to those occupied by adults!!!
    Perhaps there is very little evidence of transfer in schools because the schools have been virtually empty for the whole time of covid?...just saying...
    There is to be a disinformation PR campaign backed by selective and contentious 'evidence' which is designed to distract people from the plan. Look internationally and we see the high rate of transmission from children who are often asymptomatic. The collapse in Sweden's transmission when schools broke up for Summer is another part of the puzzle (Sweden's refusal to test children or accept that they can be index cases is just another example of this obfuscation). The press briefing telling heads to remove 'excessive' mitigation measures is the final piece.

    They are going to use children to spread the virus.

    Keeping transmission rates high enough rather than attempting zero covid was another part of this. Enough to bubble up quickly (much less so in Scotland but they have a few weeks grace). The idea seems to be that children will be least affected on the surface and that parents tend to be younger, so won't show up in data as much as previously. The briefings about over fifties, obese etc., shielding also fit in with this.

    It will be an attempt to let the virus rip through the younger and healthier population where it is presumed that data can 'show' that there isn't a real problem.

    By the way, this from an Ohio church where proper contact tracing has been done, shows just how much children spread the virus. Do not believe anyone who says that this is not the case. Their agenda is clear.


  • Options
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    I think the implication is that she got special treatment because she is black...

    I’m not, and I have not yet been stopped in over thirty years of driving so when I hear of black people being stopped multiple times a year it does strongly suggest the police have a problem.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    I think the implication is that she got special treatment because she is black...

    I’m not, and I have not yet been stopped in over thirty years of driving so when I hear of black people being stopped multiple times a year it does strongly suggest the police have a problem.
    I have been stopped by police. They were quite unpleasant too. They thought I had been shoplifting.

    But that’s once in 20 years of driving.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    So the police should be scared to stop certain people now in case it is not politically correct, no wonder the UK is seen as a failed banana republic. What next.
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    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    I think the implication is that she got special treatment because she is black...

    I’m not, and I have not yet been stopped in over thirty years of driving so when I hear of black people being stopped multiple times a year it does strongly suggest the police have a problem.
    I have been stopped by police. They were quite unpleasant too. They thought I had been shoplifting.

    But that’s once in 20 years of driving.
    How did you does one shoplift while driving?
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818

    Nigelb said:

    While the political response to the pandemic runs from inadequate to chaotic, the rate of scientific innovation continues to be impressive...

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1292267946920812544

    Had the world invested just a few billion in development in response to the first SARS outbreak, we would be in a massively better place.

    Had we not, in hindsight, vastly over-reacted we might be in a better place!

    https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809

    Carl Heneghan (Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine) recently tweeted to say that on Spanish evidence the case fatality rate could be nearer 0.1% than 0.2%. Why lock people up for a CFR of 0.1-0.2%?

    The 1957-58 flu epidemic had a CFR of 0.6-0.7%. There were serious flu epidemics in 1968-69, 1975-76, 2008-09, 2017-18.

    We can't deal with viruses by locking up the healthy.
    So - if there are 57 million people in England and Wales, and about 44,000 people in England and Wales had died from Covid by the end of May (ONS figures), and the actual fatality rate is 0.1% (or 1 in a thousand), then that implies that 44 million of those 57 million had had Covid.

    Which means we were well past herd immunity by Mid-May, no? Why hasn't it gone completely, then? Especially seeing as we still have a lot of restrictions in place.
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    NEW THREAD

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

    NEW THREAD

    Where?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    I think the implication is that she got special treatment because she is black...

    I’m not, and I have not yet been stopped in over thirty years of driving so when I hear of black people being stopped multiple times a year it does strongly suggest the police have a problem.
    I have been stopped by police. They were quite unpleasant too. They thought I had been shoplifting.

    But that’s once in 20 years of driving.
    How did you does one shoplift while driving?
    The suggestion was I had done the shoplifting, then got in my car to, ummm, remove myself from the scene of the crime.

    Although I now have an image of me driving a Citroen Saxo round the Spar in Aberystwyth...would probably have left it much tidier than normal.

    I don’t think it helped that when they first stopped me, they asked ‘Can we have a minute of your time?’ and I showed them my watch. They thought I was being funny. I wasn’t, I just misheard.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,008
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    She isn't getting special treatment because she is an MP. She is merely demonstrating and highlighting the "special" treatment all people with particular skin pigments receive from the police.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    I think the implication is that she got special treatment because she is black...

    I’m not, and I have not yet been stopped in over thirty years of driving so when I hear of black people being stopped multiple times a year it does strongly suggest the police have a problem.
    I've been stopped a fair few times both in the Uk and since I came to Spain - I'm white - does it strongly suggest the Police have a problem? Why?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Shows how important it is to make allies - she didn't win the last election but managed to arrange to be in power, and has seized the opportunity. Always worth getting into power and trying something.
    That branding font and colours looks familar.
    And unlike their Australian equivalent, they use the correct spelling. :)
    It says let's keep moving right, though (>). Subliminal Blairism.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    eek said:

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    They had better hope they had a really good reason. Even a middling reason would not prevent a furore, only a really good one.
    No reason why she should get any special treatment just because she's an MP.
    She isn't getting special treatment because she is an MP. She is merely demonstrating and highlighting the "special" treatment all people with particular skin pigments receive from the police.
    perceived "special" you perhaps mean
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,654
    edited August 2020
    alex_ said:

    I think it is offensive to the journalism profession to really describe Johnson (especially) and Gove as "journalists". They were opinion writers, paid to come up with 5 contradictory opinions a week if necessary with little in the way of background research effort to justify them.

    I suspect that Gove was probably more consistent in his opinion writing, Johnson was often just a professional contrarian.

    I think it's offensive to call journalism a "profession".

    The word is not even regulated, and I have seen higher quality shit in septic tanks.
This discussion has been closed.