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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan. Everything else is ad hoc tinkering
Lockdown began in the UK on 24 March because the governments mandated it but not really because they chose to. There were many reasons propelling politicians to that decisions, from the mounting numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths to the examples being set abroad. What’s easily forgotten though is the extent to which the lockdown was in no small part a legal regulation of something that was already happening organically.
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The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.
That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.
Parental interest and motivation probably the biggest factor in educational achievement in normal times, and that factor is now supercharged.
It seems unlikely that shutting down sorting machines early every day, thereby forcing more manual sorting, is likely to improve the efficiency of the service as he claims.
Granddaughter-in-law was concerned over her A and O level students, especially the former. They were beginning to lose enthusiasm towards the end of the Summer term, more than might be expected.
Yes it affects parents and carers but that's tough.
Schools are not essential.
IMHO that is incorrect and damaging
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53596705
Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at what happened when they reopened schools in other countries, rather than just blindly experimenting?
Honestly, I do wonder whether COVID-19 has a harmful effect on the brains of some people who haven't even had it!
F1: can't say how useful they'll be but I really like this official practice report and the assorted graphs.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.friday-pace-analysis-british-GP-2020-what-can-the-data-from-practice-tell-us.2r4isPWCXpprRkHFLHEvIg.html
Suggests that, behind Mercedes, Red Bull and Racing Point are doing well, with Ferrari and McLaren similar to one another.
And why do you assume the government isn’t?
Are in the poorest thing superfluous.
Allow not nature more than nature needs,
Man’s life is cheap as beast’s.
Education is as essential as it gets.
I think @Chris is right to point out that we need to consider the affect of schools on the spread of the virus. If schools spread it a lot and that the only way to have them reopen is to ban pretty much everything else, then it's probably not worth it. I think we need to avoid the mentality of banning fun things simply because some really important things are much more problematic.
What you might see is primary schools going back on a rolling basis - 50% in one week, 50% the next. That would allow for more distancing and limit the spread.
That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.
Even that of course would not solve the problem of how do their parents go back to work?
But even that isn’t the punchline. As @Fysics_Teacher pointed out when he and I were discussing the situation the other night, it’s going to be as near as damnit impossible to follow the protocols in place for GCSE and A level groups as it is. If they get any stricter it’s going to become completely impossible.
1) Cars run on gravy...
https://theweek.com/articles/928371/could-america-split
Monday - Day 1
Tuesday - Day 2
Wednesday - Day 3
Thursday - Day 4
Friday - Day 5
Monday - Day 6
Tuesday - Day 1
Wednesday - Day 2
and so on...
I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
What total moron thought that one up? That would be more confusing than a Johnson speech on the economy.
But it’s still a stupid idea.
Distinctly more pleasant this morning. 31.6 in my garden in shade yesterday afternoon.
UK's generally tiny housing stock didn't help during lockdown I bet.
Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.
Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.
Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.
As for retired teachers, don't people retire because they reach retirement age so rapidly pass the point at which they need to isolate themselves.
You can't ask 70 year olds to both self isolate and visit schools /petri dishes.
I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
I have argued on here that kids need to be back in school but it has to be safely and that's impossible whilst we still need social distancing. The government's strategy has been and partly still is hope the bloody thing will go away. Hence the increasingly absurd contradictions on what we can and can't do without wearing a mask.
It isn't going away. If we send all our kids back as they were it's going to be a big mess. If we don't send them back their education (academic and social) suffers. There is no easy answer, I would though prefer some thinking from the top at solutions other than "it will go away send them back or we'll fine you"
If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
The collateral damage is horrific, however over time, we can work our way back from that. To my knowledge there is no way back for the dead.
We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.
In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.
This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
And what is your estimate for how many people will die from lockdown restrictions? There is no way back for the extra 35,000 cancer deaths we're looking at.
And, finally, how do you weigh quality of life for everybody against deaths?
I do not deny this can be a very nasty virus. But people should be free to make their own decisions on whether to hug their grandchild or feast at religious festivals.
Two problems there:
1. The Tories have spent the last 5 decades enthusiastically treating the teaching profession as enemies. Good luck crawling to them now and asking a favour.
2. The Tories have no Covid plan.
If there's a working from home option to educate kids with no danger, let's have it - the public schools have been doing it since the beginning. What has the state sector put in place in this line?
It could very well be the case that the clumsy policies of the government have had no significant impact on deaths from Covid, while drastically increasing the death rate from other causes.
I seeth with rage and am embarrassed I ever supported this government.
The world is in a shitty situation with no good options, but sacrificing the lives or the long-term health of hundreds of thousands of people will win a minority following, at best. To pay that price now when several vaccines are on the horizon would be insane.
It is good to see Starmer is moving away from the unions on this
It will be very interesting to see how Scotland gets on, and I am not going to attempt to score points at our childrens cost but just wish Scotland every success in their endeavours
At the start of the COVID crisis, doctors described themselves as being an essential service. Yet how do they think the first human baby was born? In a hospital, under the care of a team of doctors?
If the COVID crisis continues for long enough, I hope that the healthcare system will come to a proper perspective about its contribution to society.
Meanwhile, in human history there has always been an education system of sorts. Young people have always learned the essential skills of their age from their elders, including language, numeracy, tool-making, culture, defence, and the means of gathering or growing of food.
In that sense the education system is at least as old as healthcare, or older. The formal education system, with examinations and qualifications is of course new. Education and training in its broadest sense is essential to human life and it cannot be neglected without society paying a price.
There are other reasons in a number of schools to do with activities and sports which need to be on fixed days to match up with other schools so that facilities can be shared
It would also lead to vast numbers of pupils and a significant number of teachers turning up to school with the wrong books for that day. As you say, two week timetables are bad enough, and I’ve been able to avoid having one of those so far.
The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.
Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.
Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/writing-wall-scottish-tories-despite-ruths-return-chris-green-2930387?amp
What the f was closing outdoor gyms all about? That one still baffles me.
Since last night, Susan Rice has retaken second favouritism from Karen Bass. In the last hour or so, Val Demings and Tammy Duckworth have shortened on Betfair. Joe Biden has said he will name his running mate in the first week in August; today, of course, is 1st August.
Kamala Harris: 2.32
Susan Rice: 5.1
Karen Bass: 6
Tammy Duckworth: 15
Elizabeth Warren: 20
Val Demings: 20
Gretchen Whitmer: 34
Michelle Obama: 38
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 100
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 130
Hillary Clinton: 190
Stacey Abrams: 310
How do I measure quality of life against deaths?
So I won't be able to replace the Mercedes this year, but I am comfortable with that if it means my financial sacrifice has prevented one lost life.
Meanwhile in the real world schools were not closed and remained open to key worker children even in the holidays...
You’re spoiling the narrative.
Remember: it has no effect on the young and those like me (ignore the hospitalisation rates and ICU rates, gloss over the aftereffects, and focus solely on actual deaths). And while we can’t compare the UK’s death toll with other countries due to our higher population density and interlocked international economy, we can pretend that we could have followed Sweden’s option with identical outcomes (once again, gloss over the several-times-higher death rate than its comparable neighbouring countries for a cost of - oops, a worse economic hit than them).
Because if we take those into account, there might not be a simple “fuck someone else, there’s a route for ME to be unaffected” answer after all.
Although, to be fair, I think there’s also an element of sheer fear-whistling-in-the-dark there from them as well.
I’m not sure it was the disaster some claim for most students, though it was certainly pretty bad for a significant number, but if we can’t get back to something like normal in September then I expect to see far more problems. To start with, last term I was teaching pupils that knew me as I had been teaching them for at least several months already. In September that will only be true of my Y11 and Y13 classes.
The obvious stuff was either done too late or not at all if your goal was to prevent spread. Where were the closed borders? Where is the central quarantine facility for both new arrivals and those infected by community transmission? Why in March was my immune compromised mother sitting in a gp waiting room for a blood pressure test, surrounded by coughing patients, none of whom had their temperatures taken, were asked to sanitise or were wearing masks? Why did the Nightingales lie empty rather than take infected patients so that care could continue for other diseases, and the infected would not be let loose to infect their own families and/or care home residents? Why call up the army and still have roving care home workers still serving multiple facilities? Why did Cheltenham go ahead? Etc etc etc...
These were all obvious errors AT THE TIME if your goal was to halt the spread but certainly so if your goal was to prevent the most vulnerable from being infected.
Why even now are infected people told to isolate at home, where it’s nearly impossible not to pass onto family members, when the country’s hotels lie empty and on the verge of bankruptcy?
I say without any hint of arrogance that if I’d been on the covid committee I would have saved tens of thousands of lives, by asking the obvious questions early and avoiding doing the stupid stuff.
He's also bothered about the risk of cross-infection in his class of primary school children.
Ruth Davidson is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader at Holyrood.
I think it likely Unionist parties will do a deal not to campaign or even stand against each other in Holyrood constituency seats e.g. Labour gets a free run against the SNP in Glasgow and the central belt, the Tories get a free run against the SNP in the borders and Aberdeenshire and the LDs get a free run against the SNP in the Highlands and Orkney and Shetland and the posher parts of Edinburgh.
The Unionist parties may only end up all standing on the MSP list
It’s not fear whistling in the dark. This is a real disease that kills people. People like me. But the cure so far has been ineffective and quite possibly counter productive.
Cos that is how elections work.
Newsflash - it isn’t possible. Or at least, it makes everything so much more difficult as to render any actual education a lucky bonus.
Thought experiment: "Before a vaccine was introduced in the 1950s, epidemics would result in up to 7760 cases of paralytic polio in the UK each year, with up to 750 deaths." (https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/polio (Anything with ox.ac. in the url must be good science.) Say we suddenly discover by applying modern diagnostic techniques to pre 1950s samples that there were actually up to 776,000 cases a year, the vast majority of them asymptomatic. Does that discovery mean that the situation was worse than we thought, better than we thought, or make no practical difference one way or the other?
I mean that was de facto what happened in Quebec, but I didn't think we were anywhere near that stage yet.
Our history department re-enacts the Battle of Hastings using water balloons and Y7...
FPT Do we need to strategise this? Probably common on PB :-)
My glasses strategy is nearly the best variowotsit, and identical frames - one pair with tints (for outside), and a clear identical one (for inside).
Green case for the case for the outside glasses (same colour as car), and international orange for the inside pair so I can find them.
And a vague feeling of OUCH every time I sign a bill at Specsavers (value the local service), even though I get most of it back via BHSF and a cash grant.
Impressed with the growth of the local Specsavers. When I approached them for a gym membership scheme they turned out to have about 40 staff.
How, for example, can I teach about the Five Year Plans without a whiteboard?
Moreover, even as a trained vocalist it’s hard to project my voice far enough to be heard when I am explaining something.
Finally, all too few of our schools have outside spaces now.
So I really don’t think ‘whenever possible’ covers many scenarios.
Do you suppose the social and economic restrictions imposed come with no long term (or acute) health consequences? I’m likely to lose a family friend who hasn’t received cancer treatment since March. I’m sure someone as well educated and well mannered as yourself can find the data that indicates this is no mere anecdote.
Swedish parents respect and trust their schools. English parents don’t.
Swedish children respect and trust their teachers. English children don’t.
I thought the idea was hilarious when I was nine. I now find myself wondering if Specsavers would give a discount on them.
Secondly, limiting it to ‘English’ is a rather silly comment. Many Scottish children hate and despise their teachers too.
Moreover, you do know how much Scottish teachers despise their overlords in Edinburgh, don’t you? Some of them have even lamented to me they wish they had Michael Gove instead, although I’m fairly sure that wouldn’t survive their wish being granted.