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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden says his VP choice will be announced in the first week of August
The big news in the Biden VP betting is that the presumptive nominee has said that he’ll reveal in the first week of August who is going to be on the ticket with him.
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But IF he does, yours truly will wholeheartedly support his decision.
Kamala Harris: 2.92
Susan Rice: 2.92
Karen Bass: 12
Tammy Duckworth: 12
Elizabeth Warren: 16.5
Val Demings: 16.5
Gretchen Whitmer: 28
Michelle Obama: 48
Hillary Clinton: 90
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 120
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 140
Stacey Abrams: 220
ETA as noted on the previous thread, someone is nibbling Gretchen Whitmer, who'd earlier been largely dismissed as a contender.
In what conceivable world is that not implying that the British empire was as evil as Nazi Germany? Should we not have opposed Hitler because it was hypocritical to do so? Really, are you mad?
For all the financial problems there were anyway I think the sheer fact of the war made it harder to preserve the Empire and for the US to support its continuance.
Am I missing something
Not many people are going in.
The criteria for visiting the office are being widened from next week and more offices opening, so we'll see what happens. I'll be WFH.
Have you attempted that ?
I don't think there is any real need for us to get hung up on this. George Washington is a kind of demi-god in the US. There is no equivalent here.
Charles - It's pretty futile looking for a specific date. There are so many definitions of superpower (e.g. how about 1913, when - IIRC - the UK was no longer the largest producer of iron & steel in the world).
It's more relevant to say that before WWI, the UK was a superpower. By WWII we weren't. At some point in the intervening period crossover happened.
Singapore wasn't particularly significant - it was an embarrassing military reversal. Suez just highlighted the realities of life.
First, hope you're recovering from jet lag, or alcohol poisoning or whatever ails ye!
Second, do think fall of Singapore was a HUGE psychological blow to British Empire, both at home AND beyond, esp. in Asia and Australia; Winston Churchill called it "the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British history."
"Fortress Singapore" was so over-hyped (including by people such as Churchill who should have known better) that when Japanese rolled across Malaya on bicycles and then captured the "fortress" without heavy lifting, was a tremendous shock. Esp. as feeble "defense" contrasted badly with the fight Americans and Filipinos (mostly the later) put up against the Japanese at Bataan (by "the battling bastards") and then Corrigedor.
After Singapore, was clear that time was running out for the British Empire - that India could NOT be held much longer, and that rest was going to go soon after. AND that former dominions such as Australia & Canada could no longer count on British for defense.
Interestingly, desire to NOT fall totally under American dominance is perhaps the strongest reason why Australia & Canada have maintained the British Crown as their own Head of State, not merely the Head of the Commonwealth.
Also note that about the best way to piss off just about any Canadian under 80, is to refer to their country as a "dominion" it REALLY sets them off.
Or are you denying that the British Empire of 1940 was undemocratic and based on racial superiority? (as of course are nearly all empires).
Thanks everyone for the advice
On vanilla can you read most recent comments on top
(GW did lose the first time he ran for VA House of Burgesses, just like WSC first time he ran for MP)
Singapore: shit happens. Churchill: a master of the spoken tongue. Doesn't mean he was always (or even often) right.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/28/tourist-hotspots-hit-hardest-in-uk-by-covid-19-unemployment
However I guess she is the "wrong type" of minority.
The contrast with France‘s behaviour in Vietnam and Algeria is great.
But like they say, God looks out for drunks, little children - and the United States of America
So obviously the wrong kind.
Thanks everyone for your advice
However the Chinese One Child Policy could oddly enough be the reason why China never becomes a hegemonic world power. Within a few years China is due to be overtaken by India as the most world's populaced nation.
Forecasts are that by 2100 China's population will drop by a third while America's will grow by a third.
To become hegemonic its not enough that China catches up a bit with the west per capita, they're going to have to try and catch up completely essentially and so far there's no sign of them doing that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/coronavirus-campsite-bookings-soar-uk-after-spain-quarantine
It seems right across Europe countries are seeing worrying evidence of increased covid and the common denominator appears to be young people gathering in large groups
For all those attacking HMG today, Boris has got this right and indeed Nicola is telling Scots not to book foreign holidays
The cognitive dissonance of a democracy maintaining an empire was unsustainable.
As you say, the Brits quickly concluded that they needed to come to an agreement with the Afrikaaners (screwing the non-Whites in the process) and none to soon. Because without the active cooperation of majority Boer faction led by Louis Botha and Jan Christian Smuts, British hold on Cape of Good Hope would have been a tad problematic - and you could forget about substantial SA contribution to British war effort in Southwest Africa (Namibia), East Africa (Kenya & Tanzania) and on Western Front.
But tbh that's not the biggest issue with Tammy, as a personality I suspect she'll be very marmite-y.
The plague is accelerating. Just going through a quiet spell in Europe I fear.
Half is better than all after all.
Interesting that in South Africa, the true role of the British turned out to be the defense of the Blacks. Thus earning the loyalty of non-White South Africans from Boer War forward.
One problem was proclivity of HM Govt in selling out Africans in favor of Afrikaaner, often with acquiescence if not urging of Anglo South Africans.
Should put 14 day quarantine back in for everyone, absolutely everyone who comes in from abroad. If you want a holiday go to a British tourist resort - they can use the business.
Note just how well Kamala Harris & Cory Booker did with African American voters in South Carolina & elsewhere. Or rather, did NOT.
One reason for touting Harris, Rice, Bass, etc is to show that Black women WERE in strong contention, regardless of final choice.
My point is this: Biden needs a Black running mate as much as Bill Clinton did, in order to turn out Black voters. That is, he don't.
South Africa is a beautiful and tragic country, but part of the fascination is that their tourist slogan "a world in one country" is true in so many ways. The history of the place really is the world in miniature.
As Bill Murray famously (and correctly) said in movie "Stripes" - "We Americans! . . . That means our forefathers were kicked out of every decent country in the world!"
Headlines about Boris Saves Summer! Have clearly given folk the OK to book a holiday without any consideration of the potential drawbacks or consequences.
Sensible people will do their own risk assessment.
Including can I afford to quarantine? And what if the country locks down?
My friend is still in Cyprus having originally gone for 2 weeks in March.
Superpowers have global reach and power, and there can never be more than a couple of them at one time; a great power like Germany never qualified - but was able to fight us on equal terms in two world wars.
Harris and Booker were already long out of it by South Carolina, and of course as you know neither is that popular in the black community for various reasons anyway.
I don't know, this seems different. After raising the prospects of selecting a black running mate, especially after the last few months, it would reinforce all the reservations they have about the Democrats.
Agree truly a fascinating country! Re: Africans & Afrikaners, interesting that Mandela achieved breakthrough by learning Afrikaans, absorbing large elements of Afrikaner culture & identity (such as rugby) and then dealing with their leaders face to face, eye to eye, man to man.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1288237606086627330?s=20
And WHY were Harris & Booker out of it pre-SC? Was it because they could NOT make headway versus Uncle Joe, the man who stood by Obama through thick & thin?
As for expectations, that has been mostly expectations of NYT op-ed writers, bloggers, etc - mostly liberal White people.