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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats that should be LAB’s main targets
This chart is a follow up to the one on the previous header which looked at the PM’s approval ratings by what happened at GE2019 in groups of constituencies.
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Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.
UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands
"Why Boris Johnson keeps on winning
Despite a global pandemic and economic shutdown, the PM's popularity just won't wane"
https://unherd.com/2020/07/why-boris-johnson-just-keeps-on-winning/
Longitudinal analyses reveal immunological misfiring in severe COVID-19
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1287746401141764099
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1287746405159837696
He is also a nasty, stuck up, hate filled and abusive idiot, Farage with a smaller brain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Campbell_(game_journalist)
https://twitter.com/France24_en/status/1287709316741562373
Are you not now going to praise them for their foresight?
Of course she has now had to close it
Also I see she is having problems over conflicting meetings with Salmond and statements in the Scots Parliament
ConHome next time.
SeaShantyIrish2 said:
' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.
Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'
But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.
https://www.hot-dinners.com/202006229633/Gastroblog/Latest-news/london-restaurants-reopening-dine-in-alfresco-terrace-seating-reservations
Edit: And of course visiting museums and art galleries is a bit tricky. Some are open but you have to book a slot in advance, and they get booked up very quickly.
https://twitter.com/goodclimate/status/1287801413368782850?s=20
No sign of a surge or second wave - just a slight swell.
I suspect a lot of traditional Republicans will not support Trump this time round even if they did last time. The prospect of four years of Biden would not worry them as much as another four years of Trump.
Unless there is some dramatic development over the next 100 days, Joe is going to walk it.
Which Pillar 1 + Pillar2.
So it includes all the carpet bombing testing in Leicester and elsewhere.
Until we get more detail on this, we can't say if the apparently flat case numbers is from a genuinely flat rate of infection or that the extra testing is finding more cases.
Given that the official R estimates are lower, it suggests the latter.
In this case, as with Reagan Democrats, process of return took MORE than one election. AND not all returned.
As for 1964, think that was special case, as Goldwater was so right-wing (certainly rhetorically) for example re: civil rights and esp. nuclear weapons, that he drove millions of Republicans (reluctantly) into LBJ's camp - similar to how McGovern was so left-wing in 1972 that millions of Democrats (for example head of AFL-CIO) voted (reluctantly) for Nixon.
Re: British examples, also took more than one election to return. And again, not all have, not hardly.
All well with you I hope.
How's the weather on your side, it's been pissing it down here all day
Of course there were underlying conditions for many of the patients (though not all, by any means), as they were looking at patients with severe disease.
The demographic information is in (edit) Extended Data Table 1 | Basic Demographics for IMPACT Cohort:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y_reference.pdf
(edit) & btw, you failed to appreciate my awesome pun.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/wings-over-scotland-blogger-slammed-7845782
Hazel Chu, native Dub & Green Party member, has been LM since May 2019.
Can remember when I was a kid, my Irish American uncle telling me - with pride - that Dublin had a Jewish Lord Mayor - Robert Briscoe (1955-56, 1961-62)
The modelling of this is very complex as I'm sure you know, and I'm not competent to do it.
You have taken the approach of "show them the data" which is really useful in identifying hot spots and progress within them but dosn't give a feel for the overall picture.
I have taken a simplistic and transparent approach that gives a big picture but might be over-estimating R and progress with reported cases for the reasons you give. Let's hope you are right.
I described it as a "slight swell". I'm watching it closely to get an early indication if a bigger wave is approaching. No sign of it yet. It was a response to a question from Black_Rook.
https://voicebritannia.co.uk/traducement-of-corbyn-swindononsunday/
And that's why Biden's veep choice is so very interesting.
BUT if not being in UK is deal-breaker, then obvious alternative is Isle of Wight.
Indeed, could also turn Channel Islands, Lewis (and Harris), Orkney, Shetland, etc. into chain of special holiday/interment camps. With Rockall for the true "adventure" tourist.
A day to curl up with a good whatever you like to curl up with.