OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.
Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.
Yes. The passion of the convert.
Partly. Also typical of folks who, at least when it comes to politics, tend to be LESS flighty & temporary in their views & inclinations that coffee house intellectuals & the like.
Steady people. That is meant to be a blue collar attribute.
OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.
Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.
But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.
I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map https://www.270towin.com/
Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
In such a case, Biden would of course have won the popular vote, but Trump would win the election as he would have carried most states and that is the de facto tiebreaker.
That would of course do wonders to improve the situation...
Probably, though it should be pointed out Biden is doing better in the rustbelt swing states than Hillary but Trump is doing slightly better in California than he did in 2016 so the popular vote could be very close as well as the EC.
The House would likely stay Democrat but Trump would win as a majority of states would still have a majority of GOP representatives even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
I think Trump still wins around 44.5% nationally but I'm sticking with my gut that Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina with Trump eeking out Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Georgia.
Things may change and I don't necessarily buy how far Biden is ahead in Florida polls for example given what happened in Florida in 2018 but this election really does seem to be about COVID and general competence with seniors less so the culture war stuff.
I'm not 100% on Arizona or NC either but Biden's lead has trended up a bit in those those states too.
There is maybe also the fact that Biden is possibly underperforming somewhat with Hispanics but this doesn't seem to be having much effect this far.
I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map https://www.270towin.com/
Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
In such a case, Biden would of course have won the popular vote, but Trump would win the election as he would have carried most states and that is the de facto tiebreaker.
That would of course do wonders to improve the situation...
Probably, though it should be pointed out Biden is doing better in the rustbelt swing states than Hillary but Trump is doing slightly better in California than he did in 2016 so the popular vote could be very close as well as the EC.
The House would likely stay Democrat but Trump would win as a majority of states would still have a majority of GOP representatives even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
I think Trump still wins around 44.5% nationally but I'm sticking with my gut that Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina with Trump eeking out Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Georgia.
Things may change and I don't necessarily buy how far Biden is ahead in Florida polls for example given what happened in Florida in 2018 but this election really does seem to be about COVID and general competence with seniors less so the culture war stuff.
I'm not 100% on Arizona or NC either but Biden's lead has trended up a bit in those those states too.
There is maybe also the fact that Biden is possibly underperforming somewhat with Hispanics but this doesn't seem to be having much effect this far.
Biden to win Wisconsin at 1.90 was where the real value was to be had just 3-4 months ago, now the bookies are offering only between 1.3-1.45.
Comments
Things may change and I don't necessarily buy how far Biden is ahead in Florida polls for example given what happened in Florida in 2018 but this election really does seem to be about COVID and general competence with seniors less so the culture war stuff.
I'm not 100% on Arizona or NC either but Biden's lead has trended up a bit in those those states too.
There is maybe also the fact that Biden is possibly underperforming somewhat with Hispanics but this doesn't seem to be having much effect this far.