That is a fairly lazy analysis. One thing is that Hispanics don't seem themselves as a unified bloc - try telling the Cuban exiles that their kinsfolk are immigrants from Honduras, Mexico et al who were escaping poverty. Even if you look at the results of the 2016 election, it doesn't show that these trends equal an automatic Republican loss - Trump won Florida and the Democrat vote in Arizona was stable from 2012 with the reduced Republican share being down to third party candidates picking up many votes.
You're right about ex-Cubans in FL. In other respects, the Hispanic vote is fairly cohesive, and that many be why the swings are much bigger in the other three states.
Cuban vote in Florida still distinctive, but less so as time goes by (and less in south Florida than north Jersey).
Perhaps most significant divide currently among Latinx voters is between evangelical Christians who tend to vote Repubican, and rest who are much more Democratic,
Also think Hispanics bit more likely to be ticket-spitters (voting for Dems one race, Reps another) than Blacks, but less so than Whites and Asians.
While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
That is a fairly lazy analysis. One thing is that Hispanics don't seem themselves as a unified bloc - try telling the Cuban exiles that their kinsfolk are immigrants from Honduras, Mexico et al who were escaping poverty. Even if you look at the results of the 2016 election, it doesn't show that these trends equal an automatic Republican loss - Trump won Florida and the Democrat vote in Arizona was stable from 2012 with the reduced Republican share being down to third party candidates picking up many votes.
You're right about ex-Cubans in FL. In other respects, the Hispanic vote is fairly cohesive, and that many be why the swings are much bigger in the other three states.
Yes but it's not just the Cubans. A fair block of Hispanics see themselves as White and would recoil in horror at being labelled Hispanic. Maybe not a huge number but enough to make a difference. I think Seashanty is right re the religious split
I see that Messrs @Casino_Royale, @david_herdson and @AlastairMeeks have been having a bit of a Twitterspat. Thank goodness you never get that sort of thing here on PB.
Any link?
I miss Mr Meeks. He's a fun person to spar with. Hope he's doing well having his break from here.
Nonetheless, the logic of Brexit is also the logic of Scottish Independence. Brexiteers have no right to complain when their own logic is used against them.
Logic, no, conclusion, perhaps. It is perfectly acceptable to think some unions of nations are desirable of others, and therefore that while there may be similarities of arguments that they do not have the same persuasive weight, which is why I don't think it inconsistent for Sindy supporters to want to remain in the EU for instance, nor for Brexit supporters to be UK unionists.
While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
Yes, no one else, even in the various UK nations, has ever talked up their country's exceptionalism when playing to the crowd.
This conceit that the English are unique in this regard crops up occasionally and it never ceases to be absolutely garbage that doesn't hold up to even a momentary thought.
People want to argue the degree? That's something else, but it is quite clear that is not usually what is being lazily alleged.
That is a fairly lazy analysis. One thing is that Hispanics don't seem themselves as a unified bloc - try telling the Cuban exiles that their kinsfolk are immigrants from Honduras, Mexico et al who were escaping poverty. Even if you look at the results of the 2016 election, it doesn't show that these trends equal an automatic Republican loss - Trump won Florida and the Democrat vote in Arizona was stable from 2012 with the reduced Republican share being down to third party candidates picking up many votes.
I agree with that, but I would be more cautious on the long-term chances of the Republicans in Arizona.
(Disclaimer: my business is in Arizona, and generally have been a big fan of Governor Doug Ducey.)
Arizona's voting patterns look a lot like New Mexico's, just shifted two decades later. The Democrats' share in New Mexico correlates almost perfectly with the population share of the largest cities in the State. Simply, urbanising states trend Democratic. We're seeing that same trend in Arizona, and I see it with the employees of my business. Young, urban, Democratic leaning voters are being sucked into Phoenix and Scottsdale.
(The irony is - of course - that it is the fact that Arizona is regulation-lite that is creating the jobs there. Those very successes pull the state Leftward.)
Final point: for all my admiration for Doug Ducey, Arizona's CV-19 response has been shocking. Economic activity in the state is falling back again as a de facto lockdown starts to take place. Our used car dealer partners seeing volumes now below the lows of April.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
Oh I think that's spot on.
I think Betsy DeVos has done the President no favours here though, with very aggressive student loan collection policies that will nothing to make the Republicans more popular with the highly indebted.
I see that Messrs @Casino_Royale, @david_herdson and @AlastairMeeks have been having a bit of a Twitterspat. Thank goodness you never get that sort of thing here on PB.
Any link?
I miss Mr Meeks. He's a fun person to spar with. Hope he's doing well having his break from here.
Nonetheless, the logic of Brexit is also the logic of Scottish Independence. Brexiteers have no right to complain when their own logic is used against them.
Absolutely right. I still do not understand those Brexiteers who in one breath can argue the need for political independence from the EU whilst at the same time denying that argument for Scottish independence from the UK.
If one is valid - and of course I believe it is - then so is the other. Morally anyone who supported Brexit should also support the chance for Scotland to make that decision for themselves as well.
That is a fairly lazy analysis. One thing is that Hispanics don't seem themselves as a unified bloc - try telling the Cuban exiles that their kinsfolk are immigrants from Honduras, Mexico et al who were escaping poverty. Even if you look at the results of the 2016 election, it doesn't show that these trends equal an automatic Republican loss - Trump won Florida and the Democrat vote in Arizona was stable from 2012 with the reduced Republican share being down to third party candidates picking up many votes.
I agree with that, but I would be more cautious on the long-term chances of the Republicans in Arizona.
(Disclaimer: my business is in Arizona, and generally have been a big fan of Governor Doug Ducey.)
Arizona's voting patterns look a lot like New Mexico's, just shifted two decades later. The Democrats' share in New Mexico correlates almost perfectly with the population share of the largest cities in the State. Simply, urbanising states trend Democratic. We're seeing that same trend in Arizona, and I see it with the employees of my business. Young, urban, Democratic leaning voters are being sucked into Phoenix and Scottsdale.
(The irony is - of course - that it is the fact that Arizona is regulation-lite that is creating the jobs there. Those very successes pull the state Leftward.)
Final point: for all my admiration for Doug Ducey, Arizona's CV-19 response has been shocking. Economic activity in the state is falling back again as a de facto lockdown starts to take place. Our used car dealer partners seeing volumes now below the lows of April.
Thanks for that RCS and I can definitely see the rationale. I guess one thing that has made me sceptical re the Democrats chances is that, since 2000, the Democrat share of the vote in Presidential elections has been in a band of 44-45% and it hasn't really gone anywhere. The Senate races are harder to refute but, from what I have read even on the Republican side McNally is seen as being a poor campaigner. It's true though that AZ, like NC, is attracting bright young graduates who vote Democrat.
A very good friend on mine here in LA used to be in the Secret Service in the late 80s, and is a very conservative Catholic. (Jimmy Smits goes to his church, which seems appropriate.)
I don't know how he'll actually vote in November (the make up of the Supreme Court is important to him), but he has become incredibly disillusioned with Trump as a human being. I suspect that - with California not being close - he'll simply not head to the polls in November to avoid endorsing him.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
Oh I think that's spot on.
I think Betsy DeVos has done the President no favours here though, with very aggressive student loan collection policies that will nothing to make the Republicans more popular with the highly indebted.
Yes, that's true but I do wonder whether that may be a deliberate strategy - become more aggressive on loans and discourage people from going to university. I wouldn't put it past Trump.
That is a fairly lazy analysis. One thing is that Hispanics don't seem themselves as a unified bloc - try telling the Cuban exiles that their kinsfolk are immigrants from Honduras, Mexico et al who were escaping poverty. Even if you look at the results of the 2016 election, it doesn't show that these trends equal an automatic Republican loss - Trump won Florida and the Democrat vote in Arizona was stable from 2012 with the reduced Republican share being down to third party candidates picking up many votes.
I agree with that, but I would be more cautious on the long-term chances of the Republicans in Arizona.
(Disclaimer: my business is in Arizona, and generally have been a big fan of Governor Doug Ducey.)
Arizona's voting patterns look a lot like New Mexico's, just shifted two decades later. The Democrats' share in New Mexico correlates almost perfectly with the population share of the largest cities in the State. Simply, urbanising states trend Democratic. We're seeing that same trend in Arizona, and I see it with the employees of my business. Young, urban, Democratic leaning voters are being sucked into Phoenix and Scottsdale.
(The irony is - of course - that it is the fact that Arizona is regulation-lite that is creating the jobs there. Those very successes pull the state Leftward.)
Final point: for all my admiration for Doug Ducey, Arizona's CV-19 response has been shocking. Economic activity in the state is falling back again as a de facto lockdown starts to take place. Our used car dealer partners seeing volumes now below the lows of April.
Thanks for that RCS and I can definitely see the rationale. I guess one thing that has made me sceptical re the Democrats chances is that, since 2000, the Democrat share of the vote in Presidential elections has been in a band of 44-45% and it hasn't really gone anywhere. The Senate races are harder to refute but, from what I have read even on the Republican side McNally is seen as being a poor campaigner. It's true though that AZ, like NC, is attracting bright young graduates who vote Democrat.
PS Good luck with your business!!
I think Trump will win AZ, albeit narrowly, but McSally was an appalling pick for the Republicans. Appointing her to the post after she lost in 2018 was like sticking two fingers up to the voters of Arizona. Mark Kelly is also extremely likeable, moderate and unobjectionable. I suspect he will take the Senate seat by five to seven points.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
Oh I think that's spot on.
I think Betsy DeVos has done the President no favours here though, with very aggressive student loan collection policies that will nothing to make the Republicans more popular with the highly indebted.
Yes, that's true but I do wonder whether that may be a deliberate strategy - become more aggressive on loans and discourage people from going to university. I wouldn't put it past Trump.
Well: there are a lot more voters in 2020 who will be affected by Betsy DeVos (and some genuine hardship created at the height of CV-19) than by not going to University next year. And President Trump tends to care about short term results, so I'm going to go for accident over conspiracy.
A very good friend on mine here in LA used to be in the Secret Service in the late 80s, and is a very conservative Catholic. (Jimmy Smits goes to his church, which seems appropriate.)
I don't know how he'll actually vote in November (the make up of the Supreme Court is important to him), but he has become incredibly disillusioned with Trump as a human being. I suspect that - with California not being close - he'll simply not head to the polls in November to avoid endorsing him.
It'll be interesting to see if there's a swing away from the Democrats in Oregon and Washington this year. A lot of swing voters in those states must be getting fed up with the unrest in Portland and Seattle.
A very good friend on mine here in LA used to be in the Secret Service in the late 80s, and is a very conservative Catholic. (Jimmy Smits goes to his church, which seems appropriate.)
I don't know how he'll actually vote in November (the make up of the Supreme Court is important to him), but he has become incredibly disillusioned with Trump as a human being. I suspect that - with California not being close - he'll simply not head to the polls in November to avoid endorsing him.
It'll be interesting to see if there's a swing away from the Democrats in Oregon and Washington this year. A lot of swing voters in those states must be getting fed up with the unrest in Portland and Seattle.
You are barking up the wrong tree.
Here in Seattle, "unrest" is much reduced. And most folks I know or hear of are even madder than ever than Trumpsky.
As for Portland, very clear that unrest is being provoked and egged on by outside federal law "enforcement" and yet again anger of local citizenry is mostly directed at Trumpsky.
Switch in strategy of Putinist wing of GOP to re-fighting culture wars is NOT a brilliant move, but instead a clapped-out junkyard dog returning to its own vomit.
BUT there has been a sea change from sea to shining sea. Despite best (or rather worst) efforts of Trumpsky, Putin, Bannon, etc., etc. & etc.
Interesting piece on 538 about the Enthusiasm Gap. Don't count on "Shy Trumpers". Increasingly this favours Grandpa Joe. He simply doesn't frighten Trump voters much.
"Second, because Trump voters don’t dislike Biden as much as Biden voters dislike Trump, Biden actually has an advantage in net enthusiasm (calculated as the difference between a candidate’s “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” rating). The gap on this metric has widened between the two in the past month, too."
... (Jimmy Smits goes to his church, which seems appropriate.) ...
I
It's never too late or too early for a West Wing political shout-out.
Since moving to LA, I've seen Donatella Moss (Janel Moloney) with her husband and kids at bowling. And I've had drinks with CJ Cregg, Will Bailey and Kate Harper. (The last two are parents are my daughter's school.)
I see that Messrs @Casino_Royale, @david_herdson and @AlastairMeeks have been having a bit of a Twitterspat. Thank goodness you never get that sort of thing here on PB.
Any link?
I miss Mr Meeks. He's a fun person to spar with. Hope he's doing well having his break from here.
Nonetheless, the logic of Brexit is also the logic of Scottish Independence. Brexiteers have no right to complain when their own logic is used against them.
Absolutely right. I still do not understand those Brexiteers who in one breath can argue the need for political independence from the EU whilst at the same time denying that argument for Scottish independence from the UK.
If one is valid - and of course I believe it is - then so is the other. Morally anyone who supported Brexit should also support the chance for Scotland to make that decision for themselves as well.
If you are a fan of bumpy roads you may as well explore them all.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
Oh I think that's spot on.
I think Betsy DeVos has done the President no favours here though, with very aggressive student loan collection policies that will nothing to make the Republicans more popular with the highly indebted.
Yes, that's true but I do wonder whether that may be a deliberate strategy - become more aggressive on loans and discourage people from going to university. I wouldn't put it past Trump.
For mainstream Americans, going to college is part of the structure of American life. About 2/3 make it, and more aspire to do so. It is hard to see what Trump thinks he would gain by disrupting this. It is part of the American dream. It would be like outlawing motherhood and apple pie.
While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
Yes, no one else, even in the various UK nations, has ever talked up their country's exceptionalism when playing to the crowd.
This conceit that the English are unique in this regard crops up occasionally and it never ceases to be absolutely garbage that doesn't hold up to even a momentary thought.
People want to argue the degree? That's something else, but it is quite clear that is not usually what is being lazily alleged.
Never mind that. What about "one year anniversary"? As opposed to...
While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
Yes, no one else, even in the various UK nations, has ever talked up their country's exceptionalism when playing to the crowd.
This conceit that the English are unique in this regard crops up occasionally and it never ceases to be absolutely garbage that doesn't hold up to even a momentary thought.
People want to argue the degree? That's something else, but it is quite clear that is not usually what is being lazily alleged.
Never mind that. What about "one year anniversary"? As opposed to...
I'm as proud of my country's achievements as anyone, where justified, but I'm become increasing irritated by the constant use of terms such as 'world-beating' when what is being talked about patently isn't. Test and trace for example.
While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
Yes
That's the problem.
BoZo is trying to quell Scottish nationalism by playing the Little Englander.
I see that Messrs @Casino_Royale, @david_herdson and @AlastairMeeks have been having a bit of a Twitterspat. Thank goodness you never get that sort of thing here on PB.
Any link?
I miss Mr Meeks. He's a fun person to spar with. Hope he's doing well having his break from here.
Nonetheless, the logic of Brexit is also the logic of Scottish Independence. Brexiteers have no right to complain when their own logic is used against them.
Logic, no, conclusion, perhaps. It is perfectly acceptable to think some unions of nations are desirable of others, and therefore that while there may be similarities of arguments that they do not have the same persuasive weight, which is why I don't think it inconsistent for Sindy supporters to want to remain in the EU for instance, nor for Brexit supporters to be UK unionists.
Yes, but those that voted Brexit were made aware it was likely to speed up the cause of Scottish independence. It is another nail in the patriotic credentials of the Brexit argument. Those that voted Brexit voted to acquiesce to the ambition of Putin and speed up the demise, breakup and decline of their own nation state, all in the cause of a spurious and wrong headed argument about "sovereignty".
Comments
Perhaps most significant divide currently among Latinx voters is between evangelical Christians who tend to vote Repubican, and rest who are much more Democratic,
Also think Hispanics bit more likely to be ticket-spitters (voting for Dems one race, Reps another) than Blacks, but less so than Whites and Asians.
That is a very good piece and that guy obviously knows his stuff. Interesting what he says about the split being increasingly along education lines. One thing that hasn't been discussed much on here is that enrolment trends in US Higher Education have actually been going backwards over the past few years, mainly in the two-year institutions but even 4 year state universities have flatlined. Many people are seeing that racking up large amounts of debt for fairly useless degrees isn't a good investment. The expected numbers for this semester obviously do not look great but there is a risk for the Democrats that the inexorable march of graduates upwards may reverse.
This conceit that the English are unique in this regard crops up occasionally and it never ceases to be absolutely garbage that doesn't hold up to even a momentary thought.
People want to argue the degree? That's something else, but it is quite clear that is not usually what is being lazily alleged.
(Disclaimer: my business is in Arizona, and generally have been a big fan of Governor Doug Ducey.)
Arizona's voting patterns look a lot like New Mexico's, just shifted two decades later. The Democrats' share in New Mexico correlates almost perfectly with the population share of the largest cities in the State. Simply, urbanising states trend Democratic. We're seeing that same trend in Arizona, and I see it with the employees of my business. Young, urban, Democratic leaning voters are being sucked into Phoenix and Scottsdale.
(The irony is - of course - that it is the fact that Arizona is regulation-lite that is creating the jobs there. Those very successes pull the state Leftward.)
Final point: for all my admiration for Doug Ducey, Arizona's CV-19 response has been shocking. Economic activity in the state is falling back again as a de facto lockdown starts to take place. Our used car dealer partners seeing volumes now below the lows of April.
I think Betsy DeVos has done the President no favours here though, with very aggressive student loan collection policies that will nothing to make the Republicans more popular with the highly indebted.
If one is valid - and of course I believe it is - then so is the other. Morally anyone who supported Brexit should also support the chance for Scotland to make that decision for themselves as well.
PS Good luck with your business!!
A very good friend on mine here in LA used to be in the Secret Service in the late 80s, and is a very conservative Catholic. (Jimmy Smits goes to his church, which seems appropriate.)
I don't know how he'll actually vote in November (the make up of the Supreme Court is important to him), but he has become incredibly disillusioned with Trump as a human being. I suspect that - with California not being close - he'll simply not head to the polls in November to avoid endorsing him.
Here in Seattle, "unrest" is much reduced. And most folks I know or hear of are even madder than ever than Trumpsky.
As for Portland, very clear that unrest is being provoked and egged on by outside federal law "enforcement" and yet again anger of local citizenry is mostly directed at Trumpsky.
Switch in strategy of Putinist wing of GOP to re-fighting culture wars is NOT a brilliant move, but instead a clapped-out junkyard dog returning to its own vomit.
BUT there has been a sea change from sea to shining sea. Despite best (or rather worst) efforts of Trumpsky, Putin, Bannon, etc., etc. & etc.
"Second, because Trump voters don’t dislike Biden as much as Biden voters dislike Trump, Biden actually has an advantage in net enthusiasm (calculated as the difference between a candidate’s “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” rating). The gap on this metric has widened between the two in the past month, too."
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1286119529052082178?s=09
Test and trace for example.
That's the problem.
BoZo is trying to quell Scottish nationalism by playing the Little Englander.
This will not work out to his advantage.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1286053426837819402