The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
And on the other hand, the Oxford guys seem confident enough for the riskiest of trials:
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
These numbers would seem likely to make it very difficult for Trump to win in Florida, where the Democrats are best-priced at 8/13. If he loses FLA, he probably loses the election.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
And on the other hand, the Oxford guys seem confident enough for the riskiest of trials:
Science in Action was great today. Only heard part of it but:
The reason for antibody clearance appears to be that hospitalised patients create a massive amount of antibodies while assymptomatic/mild cases don’t create many. Antibodies then clear at the same rate. If I heard correctly, she (the scientists) said that *all* the patients who didn’t have measurable levels of antibodies at the end of the study were assymptomatic/mild cases. If this is the case - and you can assume that if you are mild on the first infection you will be mild in future - then protection may last longer than the headlines suggest
A separate study has also suggested that memory B cells are created as part of the immune reaction. This is fantastic news. Part of the issue with Covid-19 is that it takes 10-14 days for antibodies to generate in naive patients. If you have memory cells that is massively accelerated meaning that second infections should have a much lower severity peak
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Being ridiculed by this administration is a badge of honour
Sunak's problem is that the most likely scenario that would create a vacancy at the top - a collapse in Tory support thanks to the economy tanking as government support is withdrawn - is also a scenario that would trash his personal brand. The fiscal reckoning will be very tough too, his window to take the top job before he starts making himself very unpopular is narrowing. He is clearly the Tories' top political talent, but I am far from convinced he will get the job.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
But both states have been consistently and deliberately undercounting for some time, so at worst it's a wash
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
Thats probably fair. Other politicians are highly intelligent and manipulative. Johnson is neither of these. In other news Mrs RP tells me from her school governors meeting yesterday that the DfE "spend money to make your school Corona-safe and we'll give it you back" guidance has been replaced with "we aren't giving you a penny"...
It does seem as if, belatedly, somebody in the government has realised that there is no new normal, or if there is we simply cannot afford it, and the NHS will just have to cope if there is a second spike.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
And those figures are after Trump directed hospitals not to report cases to the CDC so it could still be higher.
Sunak's problem is that the most likely scenario that would create a vacancy at the top - a collapse in Tory support thanks to the economy tanking as government support is withdrawn - is also a scenario that would trash his personal brand. The fiscal reckoning will be very tough too, his window to take the top job before he starts making himself very unpopular is narrowing. He is clearly the Tories' top political talent, but I am far from convinced he will get the job.
Or will have walked away before the vacancy is apparent. PM Johnson will, I suspect, bluster on while he can, and who wants to captain a team clearly headed for relegation.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
Starmer's ratings are poor. He's having a bad crisis. Carping from the sidelines and saying "you should have done x" is not useful and the people are realising it.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
FPT - and in reply to @Anabobazina's question re what thought of the US polling. Sorry for getting back so late,
1. State polls are low quality. Their 2016 record was p1ss poor so it is too much to read into things;
2. As have mentioned before, it is what people are doing and saying that probably provides more insight than an opinion poll. Very few in the Republicans (apart from the Lincoln project types) are calling for Trump because he is dragging down the party. I think there was some concern building pre-his Mount Rushmore speech but that seems to have lessened.
3. On the ground, the Republicans are outpacing the Democrats in new voter registrations (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152). That has been helped by the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak. That may lessen but no signs yet that anything is majorly changing.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
5. There should be several canaries in the coalmine for Biden on some of the sub-questions in these polls. According to the YouGov poll (if you trust it), 48% think Biden wants to defund the Police and 49% that he is a puppet of the hard left. There have also been signs conservative Democrats (who are overrepresented in swing states) are concerned re the left-wing swing. For example, the pro-Palestinian tone of many of the progressive Democrats may alienate the Jewish Democrat vote in Florida for example.
One aside: I had a re-look over Nate Silver's 2016 forecasts. I know a fair few on here have said he wasn't that far out because he gave Trump a 30% chance. That is true on the day but he had massively boosted that number in the final few days - as late as Oct 29th he was giving Trump only a 19% chance. It may have been the Comey effect but the cynic in me says that he tweaked his model so he could hedge his bets in the final few days. His state predictions were also quite sh1t (he gave Trump a 16,5% chance of winning Wisconsin, a 21% chance of winning MI and a 23% chance of winning PA).
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
Although I heard a few days ago that the mix was shifting towards older patients who presumably are more likely to get hospitalised?
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
But both states have been consistently and deliberately undercounting for some time, so at worst it's a wash
It seems like the local health officials telling the state so I'm not sure it's the state deliberately tweaking the numbers, more that the local authorities are setting their own criteria
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
FPT - and in reply to @Anabobazina's question re what thought of the US polling. Sorry for getting back so late,
1. State polls are low quality. Their 2016 record was p1ss poor so it is too much to read into things;
2. As have mentioned before, it is what people are doing and saying that probably provides more insight than an opinion poll. Very few in the Republicans (apart from the Lincoln project types) are calling for Trump because he is dragging down the party. I think there was some concern building pre-his Mount Rushmore speech but that seems to have lessened.
3. On the ground, the Republicans are outpacing the Democrats in new voter registrations (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152). That has been helped by the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak. That may lessen but no signs yet that anything is majorly changing.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
5. There should be several canaries in the coalmine for Biden on some of the sub-questions in these polls. According to the YouGov poll (if you trust it), 48% think Biden wants to defund the Police and 49% that he is a puppet of the hard left. There have also been signs conservative Democrats (who are overrepresented in swing states) are concerned re the left-wing swing. For example, the pro-Palestinian tone of many of the progressive Democrats may alienate the Jewish Democrat vote in Florida for example.
One aside: I had a re-look over Nate Silver's 2016 forecasts. I know a fair few on here have said he wasn't that far out because he gave Trump a 30% chance. That is true on the day but he had massively boosted that number in the final few days - as late as Oct 29th he was giving Trump only a 19% chance. It may have been the Comey effect but the cynic in me says that he tweaked his model so he could hedge his bets in the final few days. His state predictions were also quite sh1t (he gave Trump a 16,5% chance of winning Wisconsin, a 21% chance of winning MI and a 23% chance of winning PA).
One problem for Trump is unemployment, which is still stubbornly high.
Great to see Boris finally finding the £350M / wk he promised.
Shame it’s recycled money and only for a couple of months.
"Recycled" because they had already promised the £350m in full?
I hope you realise during transition we're still paying the EU. Thankfully that ends at the end of this year. The end of this year can not come soon enough it seems.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So people are infecting people deliberately to hurt Trump? So doctors are causing increasing numbers of people to die to hurt Trump?
Great to see Boris finally finding the £350M / wk he promised.
Shame it’s recycled money and only for a couple of months.
"Recycled" because they had already promised the £350m in full?
I hope you realise during transition we're still paying the EU. Thankfully that ends at the end of this year. The end of this year can not come soon enough it seems.
Perhaps its recycled from the money that schools were promised to make them safe which has now been withdrawn
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
Thats probably fair. Other politicians are highly intelligent and manipulative. Johnson is neither of these. In other news Mrs RP tells me from her school governors meeting yesterday that the DfE "spend money to make your school Corona-safe and we'll give it you back" guidance has been replaced with "we aren't giving you a penny"...
That is both depressing and entirely predictable. The strategy for schools is just to pretend that Covid doesn't exist. If there's a second wave in the Autumn term it's going to get incredibly messy. Anyone with kids, and teachers, should just assume they are going to get it.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
Oh, don't get me wrong - there is plenty of stuff in the sub-questions that is awful for Trump. But if numbers continue to beat expectations, then theat should have a feed through
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
And those June figures are likely to be a peak now that states are heading back into lockdown and public opinion has shifted back to getting the virus under control.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
Those probables are non-PCR tested positives, using lesser tests like the Abbott 15 minute one. They probably still are positive though, which is why they are labelled as such.
Great to see Boris finally finding the £350M / wk he promised.
Shame it’s recycled money and only for a couple of months.
"Recycled" because they had already promised the £350m in full?
I hope you realise during transition we're still paying the EU. Thankfully that ends at the end of this year. The end of this year can not come soon enough it seems.
Boris said Brexit was done. He must have been mistaken.
You’re looking forward to the end of the year Is interesting. I’ve wondered what goes through a shits mind as it head inexorably towards the fan. Apparently it looks forward to it.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
Thats probably fair. Other politicians are highly intelligent and manipulative. Johnson is neither of these. In other news Mrs RP tells me from her school governors meeting yesterday that the DfE "spend money to make your school Corona-safe and we'll give it you back" guidance has been replaced with "we aren't giving you a penny"...
That is both depressing and entirely predictable. The strategy for schools is just to pretend that Covid doesn't exist. If there's a second wave in the Autumn term it's going to get incredibly messy. Anyone with kids, and teachers, should just assume they are going to get it.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You have made one heck of a leap from BLM to falsified Covid-19 fatalities.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
Those probables are non-PCR tested positives, using lesser tests like the Abbott 15 minute one. They probably still are positive though, which is why they are labelled as such.
I'm not a scientist so I am probably wrong but my impression was the Abbott test could come back with a fair few false positives. It looks like the biggest counties population wise in Texas are using their own definition (at least according to that article).
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
No. It is new money for those projects, there has been underspending elsewhere . . . as there has been in much of the economy as projects up and down the country are suspended . . . so its being funded via underspending elsewhere but that doesn't stop it being new to those projects.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal.' I simply questioned whether some have a vested interest in it being seen as such.
Great to see Boris finally finding the £350M / wk he promised.
Shame it’s recycled money and only for a couple of months.
"Recycled" because they had already promised the £350m in full?
I hope you realise during transition we're still paying the EU. Thankfully that ends at the end of this year. The end of this year can not come soon enough it seems.
Boris said Brexit was done. He must have been mistaken.
You’re looking forward to the end of the year Is interesting. I’ve wondered what goes through a shits mind as it head inexorably towards the fan. Apparently it looks forward to it.
I'm looking forward to the end of the year because its been a pretty shit year so far. COVID19, Bushfires etc . . . I think come December most people are going to be happy to see the back of 2020 . . . and hopefully a few weeks later the back of Trump as Biden gets inaugurated.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
Those probables are non-PCR tested positives, using lesser tests like the Abbott 15 minute one. They probably still are positive though, which is why they are labelled as such.
I'm not a scientist so I am probably wrong but my impression was the Abbott test could come back with a fair few false positives. It looks like the biggest counties population wise in Texas are using their own definition (at least according to that article).
No, it comes back with a lot of false negatives, what's happening is that people who get a negative from the lesser tests but show symptoms are put into the probables column and wait for a PCR test. I'm not sure if it's a good way of doing things, it's definitely not what I would do.
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
Thats probably fair. Other politicians are highly intelligent and manipulative. Johnson is neither of these. In other news Mrs RP tells me from her school governors meeting yesterday that the DfE "spend money to make your school Corona-safe and we'll give it you back" guidance has been replaced with "we aren't giving you a penny"...
That is both depressing and entirely predictable. The strategy for schools is just to pretend that Covid doesn't exist. If there's a second wave in the Autumn term it's going to get incredibly messy. Anyone with kids, and teachers, should just assume they are going to get it.
As always with this government not only has the guidance been withdrawn, it never existed, what money, we definitely didn't issue requirements as to how you will need to track and acount for the soend to get it back. Walking my 9 year old to school for the last day of term shortly. 2 days a week in a tightly controlled bubble of <10 is fine. But the idea of throwing both my school-age kids into a ful school with sod all the schools can do to keep them all apart really worries me.
Remember by then that if they're travelling by school bus they'll all have to wear masks - because sitting together in an enclosed space isn't safe. Until they get to school where it will be mandated to take the masks off becausze sitting together in an enclosed space is safe. Teachers don't need a mask indoors in the gym before school - safe. Do need one in the shop to pick up a snack - unsafe. Don't need them in school - safe. Do need them on the bus into town - unsafe. Don't need them in the pub after work - safe. Its bollocks.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal. '
No the scientific evidence in peer reviewed papers is that it is marginal.
The NHS have been doing considerable testing and are not recommending remdesivir but with great fanfare did recommend Dexamethasone.
If you think there's a treatment that works but doctors worldwide are conspiring to hide the fact it works then you are suggesting that doctors worldwide are conspiring to kill their patients.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You have made one heck of a leap from BLM to falsified Covid-19 fatalities.
No, re-read what I said. I said that the idea that there is no political motivation involved with the reporting of CV-19 - EITHER WAY (so by the Republicans or Democrats) - is wrong. Doctors publicly stating that BLM protests matters more than Coronavirus spread might lead one to the conclusion that they are quite happy to lay aside their professional views in order to push a political standpoint.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Word of caution - both Florida and Texas have said that several health districts may be inflating their CV cases eg San Antonio is including "probable" cases in its tally.
Those probables are non-PCR tested positives, using lesser tests like the Abbott 15 minute one. They probably still are positive though, which is why they are labelled as such.
I'm not a scientist so I am probably wrong but my impression was the Abbott test could come back with a fair few false positives. It looks like the biggest counties population wise in Texas are using their own definition (at least according to that article).
No, it comes back with a lot of false negatives, what's happening is that people who get a negative from the lesser tests but show symptoms are put into the probables column and wait for a PCR test. I'm not sure if it's a good way of doing things, it's definitely not what I would do.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Being ridiculed by this administration is a badge of honour
We should be very grateful for @MrEd on this site.
The only regular poster putting the facts of Trump's re-election case on here, and sometimes resisting a bit of snide chipping for it accordingly.
Thank you Casino and Contrarian. It's a thankless task - you even get accused of being a Trumpton
That's absolutely what happens, which is unforgivable on a betting website.
Those that do it should be ashamed of themselves.
They might cost us (and them) a lot of money.
I'm more than open to theories on Trump winning in November, however, suggesting it will be done because virus statistics are being inflated by Trump haters is a stretch. Not that MrEd said that, tbf.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal. '
No the scientific evidence in peer reviewed papers is that it is marginal.
The NHS have been doing considerable testing and are not recommending remdesivir but with great fanfare did recommend Dexamethasone.
If you think there's a treatment that works but doctors worldwide are conspiring to hide the fact it works then you are suggesting that doctors worldwide are conspiring to kill their patients.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So people are infecting people deliberately to hurt Trump? So doctors are causing increasing numbers of people to die to hurt Trump?
Do you have any idea how bonkers you sound?
Bear in mind that his username is close to analogous for “Troll”
No. It is new money for those projects, there has been underspending elsewhere . . . as there has been in much of the economy as projects up and down the country are suspended . . . so its being funded via underspending elsewhere but that doesn't stop it being new to those projects.
To be honest I'd be quite reassured if it wasn't.
It would reassure me that there were still some real fiscal conservatives in the party - those who take the public finances seriously and recognise money doesn't grow on trees.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal.' I simply questioned whether some have a vested interest in it being seen as such.
Yes and the peer reviewed papers suggest a marginal improvement in outcomes for the most severe cases. It's a win, for sure, but it's not going to hold back the tide in the US which is why the case fatality rate is rising again.
Sunak's problem is that the most likely scenario that would create a vacancy at the top - a collapse in Tory support thanks to the economy tanking as government support is withdrawn - is also a scenario that would trash his personal brand. The fiscal reckoning will be very tough too, his window to take the top job before he starts making himself very unpopular is narrowing. He is clearly the Tories' top political talent, but I am far from convinced he will get the job.
The “top political talent” almost never does.
William Hague Iain Duncan Smith Michael Howard David Cameron Theresa May The Great Charlatan
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
There is no conspiracy of doctors doing this. The problem more seems to be local reporting and different standards being used. I agree with you that the riots probably caused a big spike but I'm not sure that means there is an incentive to then depress the numbers - I think any inflated numbers just gets blamed on Trump's strategy and the effects of the riots just gets ignored (which, when you look at the comments on here, is pretty much how everyone sees it)
We should be very grateful for @MrEd on this site.
The only regular poster putting the facts of Trump's re-election case on here, and sometimes resisting a bit of snide chipping for it accordingly.
Thank you Casino and Contrarian. It's a thankless task - you even get accused of being a Trumpton
That's absolutely what happens, which is unforgivable on a betting website.
Those that do it should be ashamed of themselves.
They might cost us (and them) a lot of money.
I'm more than open to theories on Trump winning in November, however, suggesting it will be done because virus statistics are being inflated by Trump haters is a stretch. Not that MrEd said that, tbf.
So is the efficacy of remdesivir marginal or not? who reported that it was? I have cited two reports to the contrary.
No. It is new money for those projects, there has been underspending elsewhere . . . as there has been in much of the economy as projects up and down the country are suspended . . . so its being funded via underspending elsewhere but that doesn't stop it being new to those projects.
To be honest I'd be quite reassured if it wasn't.
It would reassure me that there were still some real fiscal conservatives in the party - those who take the public finances seriously and recognise money doesn't grow on trees.
I think funding needed new projects via underspending elsewhere rather than via new money is a real fiscal conservative thing to do?
The problem is the muppets in the media and here who think all spending should be "new" money - so if there's underspending elsewhere it shouldn't be banked and should have still be spent.
Anecdata. I let my son go to Thorpe park with friends.
They’re wiping down the rides and checking temperatures on entry, but same massive queues with no masks or social distancing. The way the queues snake past each other seem designed to systematically transmit bugs to dozens of people.
Would not be surprised if we saw some blips in a couple of weeks. Enjoy the freedoms whilst they last.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal.' I simply questioned whether some have a vested interest in it being seen as such.
Yes and the peer reviewed papers suggest a marginal improvement in outcomes for the most severe cases. It's a win, for sure, but it's not going to hold back the tide in the US which is why the case fatality rate is rising again.
If you are correct then Gilead appears to making some outrageous claims on behalf of their product in the release I cited.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal. '
No the scientific evidence in peer reviewed papers is that it is marginal.
The NHS have been doing considerable testing and are not recommending remdesivir but with great fanfare did recommend Dexamethasone.
If you think there's a treatment that works but doctors worldwide are conspiring to hide the fact it works then you are suggesting that doctors worldwide are conspiring to kill their patients.
If you are correct then maybe Gilead have a lot to answer for with their claims here.
No their trials are proceeding but the data from peer reviewed sources so far is that it is marginal. That source as far as I know is their own corporate data with their own corporate spin and has not been through the peer review process. There has been a great deal of peer reviewed independent testing and so far that has shown marginal gains, unlike for Dexamethasone.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So people are infecting people deliberately to hurt Trump? So doctors are causing increasing numbers of people to die to hurt Trump?
Do you have any idea how bonkers you sound?
Bear in mind that his username is close to analogous for “Troll”
He’s being very honest there.
Shouldn't you be obsessing about the R number about now?
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You have made one heck of a leap from BLM to falsified Covid-19 fatalities.
No, re-read what I said. I said that the idea that there is no political motivation involved with the reporting of CV-19 - EITHER WAY (so by the Republicans or Democrats) - is wrong. Doctors publicly stating that BLM protests matters more than Coronavirus spread might lead one to the conclusion that they are quite happy to lay aside their professional views in order to push a political standpoint.
" Might lead one to the conclusion" is not anything like as conclusive as the term "irrefutable evidence leads one to the conclusion".
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
The debate was about the efficacy of remdesivir. You claimed the benefit was 'marginal.' I simply questioned whether some have a vested interest in it being seen as such.
Yes and the peer reviewed papers suggest a marginal improvement in outcomes for the most severe cases. It's a win, for sure, but it's not going to hold back the tide in the US which is why the case fatality rate is rising again.
If you are correct then Gilead appears to making some outrageous claims on behalf of their product in the release I cited.
The Scottish Government pointed that out on the day of the bogus announcement. They had spotted that the Barnett Consequentials were pretty much zero: if Scotland, Wales and NI weren’t getting any new money then the only logical conclusion was that neither was England.
How many massive, blatant lies has this prime minister now told? Must be well over the hundred mark. When will journalists start doing their job? Eg BBC?
We should be very grateful for @MrEd on this site.
The only regular poster putting the facts of Trump's re-election case on here, and sometimes resisting a bit of snide chipping for it accordingly.
Thank you Casino and Contrarian. It's a thankless task - you even get accused of being a Trumpton
That's absolutely what happens, which is unforgivable on a betting website.
Those that do it should be ashamed of themselves.
They might cost us (and them) a lot of money.
I'm more than open to theories on Trump winning in November, however, suggesting it will be done because virus statistics are being inflated by Trump haters is a stretch. Not that MrEd said that, tbf.
Thanks Max and Casino. On the betting side, my fear is that every negative for Trump is being ramped up because people dislike him (which is fair enough) and that other evidence gets drowned out. To be upfront, I have not bet on the election outcome because too many things can happen between now and then. I fear many people are rushing into bets now.
Max, I certainly am not suggesting deaths are being inflated that's for sure. What I am saying is the CV-19 virus has taken on a political angle and, being political and the US, people will use their own interpretations to push their point. Trump will say it is over and Biden will say BLM riots had nothing to do with the spikes.
Sunak's problem is that the most likely scenario that would create a vacancy at the top - a collapse in Tory support thanks to the economy tanking as government support is withdrawn - is also a scenario that would trash his personal brand. The fiscal reckoning will be very tough too, his window to take the top job before he starts making himself very unpopular is narrowing. He is clearly the Tories' top political talent, but I am far from convinced he will get the job.
The “top political talent” almost never does.
William Hague Iain Duncan Smith Michael Howard David Cameron Theresa May The Great Charlatan
The Scottish Government pointed that out on the day of the bogus announcement. They had spotted that the Barnett Consequentials were pretty much zero: if Scotland, Wales and NI weren’t getting any new money then the only logical conclusion was that neither was England.
How many massive, blatant lies has this prime minister now told? Must be well over the hundred mark. When will journalists start doing their job? Eg BBC?
Or Scotland, Wales and NI would have had a reduced amount of money due to England's underspending but England spent the underspending on other projects as announced meaning you kept your budget without consequentials.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Being ridiculed by this administration is a badge of honour
Sunak's problem is that the most likely scenario that would create a vacancy at the top - a collapse in Tory support thanks to the economy tanking as government support is withdrawn - is also a scenario that would trash his personal brand. The fiscal reckoning will be very tough too, his window to take the top job before he starts making himself very unpopular is narrowing. He is clearly the Tories' top political talent, but I am far from convinced he will get the job.
The “top political talent” almost never does.
William Hague Iain Duncan Smith Michael Howard David Cameron Theresa May The Great Charlatan
I can't allow you Cameron, when the alternative was David Davis.
Or are you suggesting by implication David Davis is indeed "top political talent"!
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
I don't think Contrarian is saying that to be fair. He is saying that the CV reporting has got caught up in politics. Remember when there were the BLM protests and you had doctors tweeting that going out and protesting was justified because systemic racism was more important than CV-19? They didn't really sound like doctors who didn't let politics intrude into their views
You need to believe that doctors all over the US are engaged in inflation of numbers and lesser treatment to allow patients to die. I just don't see it. Also, a lot of these new cases can probably be traced back to those riots so it's definitely not on their interests to inflate the figures. Trump just isn't smart enough to make the link in people's minds.
There is no conspiracy of doctors doing this. The problem more seems to be local reporting and different standards being used. I agree with you that the riots probably caused a big spike but I'm not sure that means there is an incentive to then depress the numbers - I think any inflated numbers just gets blamed on Trump's strategy and the effects of the riots just gets ignored (which, when you look at the comments on here, is pretty much how everyone sees it)
The issue is that Trump was too stupid to sit back and let the rioters take the blame for the rise in cases. I, like many, think that the rioters and ther autonomous zones are behind a lot of the rise in the US. I also believe that they were egged on by democrats across the country who are now relieved that Trump wasn't able to play a straight bat.
The reason Trump isn't getting a hearing on this is because he was pushing the unlocking of state economies at the same time in an unsafe manner. Whether or not the rioters had a contribution to this new spike in cases, the president pursued a policy that also contributed so he, as the most powerful person in the country, will take the wrap.
If there is a non-virus related method for Trump to win then I'm all ears.
I think a Trump win will be on the back of shy-Trumpers, mid level anti-Trump voters staying home on the day and voter suppression in black areas of red and toss up states. All three of those need to go in his favour to hold the EC IMO, but I can't see the second one while the virus rages on and the economy is constantly up and down because of lockdowns being reimposed like California.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
These numbers would seem likely to make it very difficult for Trump to win in Florida, where the Democrats are best-priced at 8/13. If he loses FLA, he probably loses the election.
I have a friend in Florida who seems convinced the virus is a conspiracy to bring Trump down. He reckons Florida is carrying on pretty much as normal.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
And on the other hand, the Oxford guys seem confident enough for the riskiest of trials:
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Fauci is persona non grata with Trump supporters. They will automatically dismiss anything he says.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
These numbers would seem likely to make it very difficult for Trump to win in Florida, where the Democrats are best-priced at 8/13. If he loses FLA, he probably loses the election.
I have a friend in Florida who seems convinced the virus is a conspiracy to bring Trump down. He reckons Florida is carrying on pretty much as normal.
Wasn't there a pastor who said similar and then died of it? Or the Covid party where someone had it and they all got it and "I thought it was a hoax" was the last words of one victim? How stupid are some Americans?
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
These numbers would seem likely to make it very difficult for Trump to win in Florida, where the Democrats are best-priced at 8/13. If he loses FLA, he probably loses the election.
I have a friend in Florida who seems convinced the virus is a conspiracy to bring Trump down. He reckons Florida is carrying on pretty much as normal.
The virus is far from a conspiracy theory, but breathless reporting about it by certain news outlets should surely be taken with a large pinch of salt.
The US added 73,000 confirmed cases yesterday, of which roughly 14,000 were in Florida, 10,000 in Texas and 9,000 in Cali. Overall the highest daily increase so far. At least 39 states are showing increases; four states are close to running out of hospital beds.
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
It’s only a few days back that Fauci was ridiculed by the the administration for suggesting there was a real danger of over 100k cases a day.
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
Fauci is persona non grata with Trump supporters. They will automatically dismiss anything he says.
Trump supporters will go to the polls whatever happens, it's everyone else that Fauci is speaking to.
I don't think it's just dishonesty when it comes to Johnson and numbers. I think he just has no real conception that numbers refer to real things because he is completely innumerate.
Thats probably fair. Other politicians are highly intelligent and manipulative. Johnson is neither of these. In other news Mrs RP tells me from her school governors meeting yesterday that the DfE "spend money to make your school Corona-safe and we'll give it you back" guidance has been replaced with "we aren't giving you a penny"...
That is both depressing and entirely predictable. The strategy for schools is just to pretend that Covid doesn't exist. If there's a second wave in the Autumn term it's going to get incredibly messy. Anyone with kids, and teachers, should just assume they are going to get it.
Surely better to get in autumn than winter?
And there we have it: Tory Covid19 strategy in all its glory.
In Houston there is mixed news. Covid hospital occupancy increase has slowed right down and they aren't at risk of running out of beds for the foreseeable future but the overall hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
From what I understand the treatment improvements are not what they are made out to be by the headlines. I've heard the word "marginal" used a lot wrt to remdesivir at least.
There is bound to be some politics involved here. Trump's many enemies have a vested interest in preventing a return to 'normal'
So you're suggesting a conspiracy by doctors in Texas to allow patients to die so that Trump looks bad? Think about what you're saying before you blurt out more rubbish.
Good point.
We have a few flatearthers out today.
The most insane conspiracy theory that I have run across is that the authorities are sending out swabs contaminated with coronavirus, thereby deliberately infecting people. Something to do with profiteering by big pharma. A conspiracy so insanely simple is genius.
Comments
One of the guys in the Moderna vaccine trial appears to have developed some significant side effects.
https://twitter.com/antonioregalado/status/1283916367264206851
The reason for antibody clearance appears to be that hospitalised patients create a massive amount of antibodies while assymptomatic/mild cases don’t create many. Antibodies then clear at the same rate. If I heard correctly, she (the scientists) said that *all* the patients who didn’t have measurable levels of antibodies at the end of the study were assymptomatic/mild cases. If this is the case - and you can assume that if you are mild on the first infection you will be mild in future - then protection may last longer than the headlines suggest
A separate study has also suggested that memory B cells are created as part of the immune reaction. This is fantastic news. Part of the issue with Covid-19 is that it takes 10-14 days for antibodies to generate in naive patients. If you have memory cells that is massively accelerated meaning that second infections should have a much lower severity peak
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell
Hard to describe that as scaremongering now.
hospitalisation death rate is going up. At the start of the month it was 6.5%, now it is 6.9% and it has been steadily ticking up through July.
Given improvements in treatment you'd expect that to be going down not up.
1. State polls are low quality. Their 2016 record was p1ss poor so it is too much to read into things;
2. As have mentioned before, it is what people are doing and saying that probably provides more insight than an opinion poll. Very few in the Republicans (apart from the Lincoln project types) are calling for Trump because he is dragging down the party. I think there was some concern building pre-his Mount Rushmore speech but that seems to have lessened.
3. On the ground, the Republicans are outpacing the Democrats in new voter registrations (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152). That has been helped by the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak. That may lessen but no signs yet that anything is majorly changing.
4. The economy is getting better.June retail sales were up 7.5% MoM vs expectations of a 5% increase. Things are still sh1t overall but Trump still leads on the economy.
5. There should be several canaries in the coalmine for Biden on some of the sub-questions in these polls. According to the YouGov poll (if you trust it), 48% think Biden wants to defund the Police and 49% that he is a puppet of the hard left. There have also been signs conservative Democrats (who are overrepresented in swing states) are concerned re the left-wing swing. For example, the pro-Palestinian tone of many of the progressive Democrats may alienate the Jewish Democrat vote in Florida for example.
One aside: I had a re-look over Nate Silver's 2016 forecasts. I know a fair few on here have said he wasn't that far out because he gave Trump a 30% chance. That is true on the day but he had massively boosted that number in the final few days - as late as Oct 29th he was giving Trump only a 19% chance. It may have been the Comey effect but the cynic in me says that he tweaked his model so he could hedge his bets in the final few days. His state predictions were also quite sh1t (he gave Trump a 16,5% chance of winning Wisconsin, a 21% chance of winning MI and a 23% chance of winning PA).
Shame it’s recycled money and only for a couple of months.
https://texasscorecard.com/state/texas-health-dept-reported-inflated-coronavirus-cases-for-bexar-county/
It seems like the local health officials telling the state so I'm not sure it's the state deliberately tweaking the numbers, more that the local authorities are setting their own criteria
So you might have got the implication from Mred that 'probable' meant no test result to back up the diagnosis.
In actuality these 'probables' that have been removed have been tested and came back positive.
I hope you realise during transition we're still paying the EU. Thankfully that ends at the end of this year. The end of this year can not come soon enough it seems.
The survey also finds Biden edging out Trump when voters are asked who would do a better job handling the economy -- 50% say Biden and 45% for Trump, a reversal from June when 51% said Trump would do a better job, 46% Biden.
So doctors are causing increasing numbers of people to die to hurt Trump?
Do you have any idea how bonkers you sound?
We have a few flatearthers out today.
The only regular poster putting the facts of Trump's re-election case on here, and sometimes resisting a bit of snide chipping for it accordingly.
You’re looking forward to the end of the year Is interesting. I’ve wondered what goes through a shits mind as it head inexorably towards the fan. Apparently it looks forward to it.
These researchers seem to be far more bullish about the drug than the doctors others are talking about
Those that do it should be ashamed of themselves.
They might cost us (and them) a lot of money.
Remember by then that if they're travelling by school bus they'll all have to wear masks - because sitting together in an enclosed space isn't safe. Until they get to school where it will be mandated to take the masks off becausze sitting together in an enclosed space is safe. Teachers don't need a mask indoors in the gym before school - safe. Do need one in the shop to pick up a snack - unsafe. Don't need them in school - safe. Do need them on the bus into town - unsafe. Don't need them in the pub after work - safe. Its bollocks.
The NHS have been doing considerable testing and are not recommending remdesivir but with great fanfare did recommend Dexamethasone.
If you think there's a treatment that works but doctors worldwide are conspiring to hide the fact it works then you are suggesting that doctors worldwide are conspiring to kill their patients.
If you are correct then maybe Gilead have a lot to answer for with their claims here.
He’s being very honest there.
It would reassure me that there were still some real fiscal conservatives in the party - those who take the public finances seriously and recognise money doesn't grow on trees.
William Hague
Iain Duncan Smith
Michael Howard
David Cameron
Theresa May
The Great Charlatan
The problem is the muppets in the media and here who think all spending should be "new" money - so if there's underspending elsewhere it shouldn't be banked and should have still be spent.
They’re wiping down the rides and checking temperatures on entry, but same massive queues with no masks or social distancing. The way the queues snake past each other seem designed to systematically transmit bugs to dozens of people.
Would not be surprised if we saw some blips in a couple of weeks. Enjoy the freedoms whilst they last.
How many massive, blatant lies has this prime minister now told? Must be well over the hundred mark. When will journalists start doing their job? Eg BBC?
Max, I certainly am not suggesting deaths are being inflated that's for sure. What I am saying is the CV-19 virus has taken on a political angle and, being political and the US, people will use their own interpretations to push their point. Trump will say it is over and Biden will say BLM riots had nothing to do with the spikes.
Or are you suggesting by implication David Davis is indeed "top political talent"!
The reason Trump isn't getting a hearing on this is because he was pushing the unlocking of state economies at the same time in an unsafe manner. Whether or not the rioters had a contribution to this new spike in cases, the president pursued a policy that also contributed so he, as the most powerful person in the country, will take the wrap.
If there is a non-virus related method for Trump to win then I'm all ears.
I think a Trump win will be on the back of shy-Trumpers, mid level anti-Trump voters staying home on the day and voter suppression in black areas of red and toss up states. All three of those need to go in his favour to hold the EC IMO, but I can't see the second one while the virus rages on and the economy is constantly up and down because of lockdowns being reimposed like California.
I'm assuming these challenge trials would need to be completed before the vaccine can be available?