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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Covid soars to new US peak YouGov polling suggests that Trump is being hurt most amongst those who feel worst affected
New CBS polling in three big sunbelt states that now look to be highly competitive has found that the more voters are concerned about the virus the more they are likely to support Biden.
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Not impossible, but I'd be surprised if Trump won.
F1: post-race thoughts up here:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/styrian-grand-prix-post-race-analysis.html
Quite pleased to have both tips come off, one in dramatic fashion.
Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.
The doctors warn that some victims may never recover from the illness and that all age groups are vulnerable.
The virus is a systemic infection that affects all the organs of the body, not, as was previously thought, just a respiratory disease, they say.'
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests
"People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.
In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined."
....
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1282552411031310337
To change the subject to something more depressing, in a covid free time line this would be the year when we realised that we are thoroughly and irreversibly fucked by climate warming. We just haven't had time to notice.
The best analysis of their work I have ever found was in Nate Silver's book The Signal and the Noise. He reckoned they had a 78% accuracy rate which sounds ok until you realise that if you predict each day that it will not rain you would be right 70% of the time. Is all that time and expense worth it for the extra 8%? Probably, but let's be honest about it. It's a science that has a long way to go.
If it sounds like I have a grudge, I do. My grape vines were badly hit by an unseasonal and unpredicted May frost.
The trick Corona has pulled - and a key reason why it has proved so problematic - is the first week or so (or indeed throughout) with absolutely no symptoms.
On the upside, there is no (other) way that humanity would have organised to reduce emissions so quickly and dramatically to tackle climate change. It may be temporary (although I would expect an after effect) but it will at least provide some interesting data to calibrate the impact of other potential interventions.
It is, however, a lovely sunny and clear morning, if not as warm as the weekend.
However, maybe the UK and EU need to stop dancing around each other and start compromising before it is too late
I suspect Trump is artificially low and will close things up in the polls.
My hope is to be sitting pretty on Nov 5, with plenty of green on either candidate, waiting for localised betting opportunities...
I’m getting old. I remember when Conservatives claimed to value taking responsibility for the decisions we make.
However, both sides are just as idiotic and instead of blind loyalty to the EU, a balanced critic would be more helpful
I am not including personal upsides for Johnson and more jobs for those that deal with red tape.
It’s funny how it’s all the high profile stories that play well in the media which are the things that are cut.
Edit: but I suppose it is too much to ask for to expect the EU lawyers to break down non tariff barriers that protect EU lawyers from competition
That’s EXACTLY what a deal is. You give me something I want, I’ll give you something you want.
If you don’t want to do a deal then don’t waste our time
I suspect that for the people that catch it twice it's actually Covid staying dormant for a bit and then launching a second attack...
The government is responsible and the voters will judge them.
But if a negotiation breaks down it is rare the fault is all on one side
Edit. UK lawyers no longer having that unique access is one of the many downsides to Brexit.
They always wanted that.
We always knew that.
Asking them to abandon that is not negotiating. It's insane.
Fundamentally it’s the freedom to choose our own destiny.
You don’t value that highly and therefore emphasis the economic aspects.
That’s your right, of course, but it’s incorrect say that the upsides have not been articulated
If you are negotiating with someone eg to buy a car and can walk away anytime the garage is forced to compromise if it wants a deal. If you have to buy a car and have to buy it from that garage then there is no incentive for them to compromise. Why should they?
This is all coming from people who are pro business, yet don't seem to grasp simple negotiating positions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/22/black-lives-matter-bbc-introduces-diversity-quota-pledges-100m/
BBC management choose their own priorities.
However, on the counter-side, I was informed by those in the know that there’s a spectrum of difficulty with creating vaccines, and covid very much appears to be on the less difficult side. They’re stone cold certain that at least one, and very probably several, of the attempts in train will prove successful and possibly do so faster than the initial (thought to be optimistic) estimates.
That's not an upside.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1282581241343221763
You can talk airy-fairy national destiny (which somehow doesn't apply to Scotland) and I can talk airy-fairy Peace in Europe and those things don't mean a thing unless we can point to people getting some practical benefit out of them.
1) The NHS were asked to trim management overhead.
2) An administrative type had the clever idea of sending redundancy notices to all the oncology nurses at Great Ormand Street Hospital (childrens hospital)
4) Press firestorm.
5) Being very, very stupid, she sent an email boasting of her genius in protecting the budget.
6) Email leaked.
The response was interesting - apparently it wasn't fair to judge her like that, since "that's what people do".....
In 1914, for example, we missed a trick. We could have sold Belgium to the Germans - heck, add in France as well. Price - their colonies.
We would have been better off.
More recently, we could have sold Ukraine to Russia. Half of one country, plus a UN security council veto. Say 50 billion euro, easy terms.
But don't expect compromise without something in exchange.
If I am right we are now going to have the pain of being on the outside of a neighbouring protectionist bloc. The UK will need large doses of courage and competence. Humm....
That mean once we've got a vaccine, as many people as possible should get it in as quickly as possible. If say 90% of the > 10 yr old population is vaccinated in a 2 month window (There'll always be people that can't/won't) that pushes the infected (So far as the virus is concerned) way above its R0 to reproduce so the disease should in theory go away in that time.
Cool, cool, enjoy.
The bun fights in Surrey and North Yorkshire amongst other places are going to be a sight to behold.
It sounds like another Brussels "You are a third party country, but we don't want to treat you like one."
Clearly the EU makes deals with non EU countries so gives stuff away in exchange for something in return so why is this different.
The message coming across (whether accurate or not) is we want to keep the benefits of EU membership that we enjoyed and don't seem to understand that we need to give something in exchange.
We can rweak and we can whinge that other countries aren't facilitating our wishes, but in the end it's an illusion to think we now control our destiny much more than we did before. In many ways, rather less, as we no longer directly influence the decisions made that affect us.
Back in January I was accused of being a traitor for putting forward similar points. What a country!
Also on 5 live this morning there were far more saying they would not go to the shops if they had to wear a mask
The debate goes on, but I expect most people agree it is correct on public transport and confined spaces but not elsewhere
OK, pedantic.
However, so far as my (ex) professional registration is concerned, I could have registered to work in other countries, my qualification being recognised by the relevant bodies.And EU pharmacists could, and did, register here. However I couldn't go across to Germany without re-registering, and likewise a German or Spanish pharmacist couldn't practice here without first registering. And registering is quite expensive.