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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » House effect. The Polish presidential election

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    MattW said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    What @HYUFD and others fail to realise that once (if) a deal is made, the Brexit issue is then over for voters. They will then care about whether they feel that things are improving, and that’s entirely subjective. For example despite objectively unemployment being almost nothing, people still blamed EU free-movement for their employment woes.

    The Government must improve Brexit voters lives. If they do not, then who knows what will happen.

    They already have improved Brexit voters lives. By leaving the EU - that is the gain in utility. It`s emotional not tangible. I was in Parliament Square on 31 Jan with the crazies. Some were weeping, saying "We`re free". Bonkers.
    In 1997 when people were weeping and singing along to D:ream after Blair entered Downing Street - was that "Bonkers" ?
    No. I wouldn`t have sang along (though it was the only time I`ve ever voted Labour) but I wouldn`t say it was bonkers.
    What's the difference between people celebrating one and getting emotional for it - and the other?

    Besides the fact you voted for one and not the other?
    Because being pleased that Blair won in 1997 was a legitimate point of view.

    Weeping about being a free country after 31/1 when we were free before then is bonkers.
    We weren't free before then, we were a subordinate part of the EU which was something some people spent years or decades campaigning against.

    You may have supported that situation but it is real not bonkers.
    Total nonsense of course but hey, look, you won... get over it!
    Its not nonsense. We were not free to set laws that broke EU law, EU law was supreme.
    Dear God... I am not free to set my own laws but I have a (vanishingly small) influence over them via my vote. The UK had a much more significant ability to influence EU laws (which it generally squandered).

    Does anyone dispute we were always free to leave? Pretending we were like some subjugated colony is a load of bollocks and frankly insulting to those parts of the world that genuinely are subjugated.
    AIUI EU Law had no such provision until 2008 (?), and then the arrangements - according to the person who created them, were designed "not to be used".

    I think that says it all.
    Greenland successfully left the EU before the provision. (And, indeed, it's far from uncommon for treaties to lack "exit" clauses.)
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Nigelb said:
    One thing to keep in mind, is that in US public education Kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) is VERY decentralized, managed by plethora of school districts administratively & politically separate from state and most local governments.

    Feds & states have some sway due to federal & state school spending. But Trumpsky is does NOT have authority to simply issue orders to over 13k school districts from sea to shining sea,

    You may imagine how eager the Seattle School District is to bow to Trumpsky diktats.
    You have it exactly right. Other than politics the wild card is parental pressure for reopening.
    And you've sure got THAT right. Puts lots of pressure on local governments to both reopen schools AND protect students.

    Also makes anti-mask agitators and politicos less popular with each passing day, and NOT just in Democratic areas.
    True - Gov Kemp 'just' recommends wearing masks, but Atlanta mayor Bottoms has mandated it in the ATL.
    Much of talk on sports radio this AM was about your Sen, Kelly Loeffler re: her public opposition to BLM and significant pushback from members of Atlanta Womens National Basketball Association team, which is part-owned by the recently-appointed senator now seeking election against strong Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff.
    Yes, Loeffler, the richest woman in Congress. Her comments have not gone down well, with a Dream spokesman commenting she has no influence on the day to day running of the team. She is also on the buy side of the largest non-commercial real estate transaction in Georgia history. She grew up on her family farm and is a conservative and Trump supporter. That last sentence is what most Georgians know about her from her blanket TV campaign. - a farm girl who made it to the top of the business world.

    Ossof is a serious contender who has name recognition from his serious campaign for Congress. He is raising huge amounts of out of state money and is a major opponent.
    Reminds me of what FDR's Interior Secretary and blunt object Harold Ickes (father of Howard Ickes) dubbed Wendell Willkie in 1940 when Republicans focused on the GOP nominee's small town Indiana roots - "the bare foot boy from Wall Street".
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,941
    edited July 2020
    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Or in other words, the right wing populists have the illusion of power, yet are implementing the policies of Corbyn. Massive borrowing, job subsidies, green investment, nationalising the private hospitals and reviewing statues. It is some irony.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,004

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    Northern Ireland is frustrating, politically, but it is still part of my broader country. For now at least.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,004
    edited July 2020
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Or in other words, the right wing populists have the illusion of power, yet are implementing the policies of Corbyn. Massive borrowing, job subsidies, green investment, nationalising the private hospitals and reviewing statues. It is some irony.
    We're still pretending actions taken in extremis are the same thing as proposing them not in extremis are we? I've heard that policies appropriate in one context can be not appropriate in another context, and vice-versa.

    Pleasant night to all.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,996
    edited July 2020
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Or in other words, the right wing populists have the illusion of power, yet are implementing the policies of Corbyn. Massive borrowing, job subsidies, green investment, nationalising the private hospitals and reviewing statues. It is some irony.
    We're still pretending actions taken in extremis are the same thing as proposing them not in extremis are we? I've heard that policies appropriate in one context can be not appropriate in another context, and vice-versa.

    Pleasant night to all.
    I would humbly suggest there may be a bit of truth in both of that? In that some things need to be done.We kinda knew they had to be done. But we had no political cover.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,364
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Or in other words, the right wing populists have the illusion of power, yet are implementing the policies of Corbyn. Massive borrowing, job subsidies, green investment, nationalising the private hospitals and reviewing statues. It is some irony.
    Yes, I must admit to finding it wryly amusing, though obviously not the reason for it. I remember commentators freaking out at the thought of debt over 90% of GDP if Corbyn and McDonnell won, but current policy is far more radical than anything they proposed. Merely doing some nationalisation seems hopelessly conservative by current standards.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,260
    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Speak for your own country. The right have been pretty mentally fragile in my country for a while.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    I most certainly would not
    Why not? We send more money each year to NI than we did to the EU (net).
    I believe in the Union and am a Tory, I am not a free market liberal
    The Union cannot be sustained as an abusive marriage by force. Scotland and Ireland have the right to self determination. It is not for us in England to infringe those rights.
    The Union can and will be maintained by this Tory government at all costs.

    In 2014 Scots voted no to independence in a once in a generation referendum and this government will ensure it is precisely that and ban indyref2 for the rest of its term.

    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    Only 8 Unionist out of 18 Northern Irish MPs elected in 2019, though. The lowest ratio since Partition.
    There were only 8 DUP MPs and 0 UUP MPs elected in 2010 too, the only difference in 2019 was North Down elected an Alliance MP not Lady Hermon.
    Lady Hermon is a Unionist, making 2010 50% Unionist MPs. In 2019, it was only 44.4%
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    Northern Ireland is frustrating, politically, but it is still part of my broader country. For now at least.
    I sez Ireland for the Irish! And Rutland for the Ruttish!
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    The Brexit dividend just keeps on keepin' on ....

    "The pound is now an emerging-market currency in all but name, according to analysts at Bank of America, who say that Brexit has turned it into a mirror of the “small and shrinking” UK economy."

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/british-pound-sinking-to-emerging-market-currency-status-1.4291672
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    I most certainly would not
    Why not? We send more money each year to NI than we did to the EU (net).
    I believe in the Union and am a Tory, I am not a free market liberal
    The Union cannot be sustained as an abusive marriage by force. Scotland and Ireland have the right to self determination. It is not for us in England to infringe those rights.
    The Union can and will be maintained by this Tory government at all costs.

    In 2014 Scots voted no to independence in a once in a generation referendum and this government will ensure it is precisely that and ban indyref2 for the rest of its term.

    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    Only 8 Unionist out of 18 Northern Irish MPs elected in 2019, though. The lowest ratio since Partition.
    There were only 8 DUP MPs and 0 UUP MPs elected in 2010 too, the only difference in 2019 was North Down elected an Alliance MP not Lady Hermon.
    IIRC the NI Alliance Party is offically unionist for purposes of power sharing under Good Friday agreement. Though electoral it is the only "unionist" party that wins many Nationalist/Catholic votes in Westminster or Stormont elections.
    "It opposes the consociational power-sharing mandated by the Good Friday Agreement as deepening the sectarian divide, and, in the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is designated as neither unionist nor Irish nationalist, but 'Other'."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Party_of_Northern_Ireland
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    I most certainly would not
    Why not? We send more money each year to NI than we did to the EU (net).
    I believe in the Union and am a Tory, I am not a free market liberal
    The Union cannot be sustained as an abusive marriage by force. Scotland and Ireland have the right to self determination. It is not for us in England to infringe those rights.
    The Union can and will be maintained by this Tory government at all costs.

    In 2014 Scots voted no to independence in a once in a generation referendum and this government will ensure it is precisely that and ban indyref2 for the rest of its term.

    52% of Northern Irish voters still want' to stay in the UK
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    Only 8 Unionist out of 18 Northern Irish MPs elected in 2019, though. The lowest ratio since Partition.
    There were only 8 DUP MPs and 0 UUP MPs elected in 2010 too, the only difference in 2019 was North Down elected an Alliance MP not Lady Hermon.
    IIRC the NI Alliance Party is offically unionist for purposes of power sharing under Good Friday agreement. Though electoral it is the only "unionist" party that wins many Nationalist/Catholic votes in Westminster or Stormont elections.
    "It opposes the consociational power-sharing mandated by the Good Friday Agreement as deepening the sectarian divide, and, in the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is designated as neither unionist nor Irish nationalist, but 'Other'."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Party_of_Northern_Ireland

    '30 per cent of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland, compared with 70 per cent who wanted Northern Ireland to remain within the UK.'
    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/02/19/news/less-than-a-third-of-people-said-they-would-back-irish-unity-in-a-border-poll-1846078/
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,131
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Alternative arrangements are back!

    twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1280888517258883074?s=21

    They have rewritten the Withdrawal Agreement and PD. - "We have drafted new versions of the Political Declaration and Withdrawal Agreement
    accordingly. "


    :D:D:D

    It is a bit late considering we have already signed up to it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    Andy_JS said:

    The way I'd interpret recent events in politics:

    The left are having a nervous breakdown because they've realised they can't win elections. So they're trying to get their agenda implemented in other ways.

    Maybe it's I've been all caught up with work and CV-19, but I'm not sure what you're referring to? Is it the statue toppling? BLM?

    If so, what is BLM other than a very effective pressure group, like the Countryside Alliance? Or Greenpeace?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    Yeah.....maybe.....

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1280956571057418240?s=20

    Just what the EU wants two land borders within the British Isles.....

    If Scotland leaves the UK, the case for Irish reunification becomes unanswerable. (Hint: it's not the English the NI Protestants want to be in a union with...)
    No it doesn't, Protestant county Antrim for instance (the largest in NI) has little connection culturally with the Catholic Republic of Ireland, indeed the Ulster Scotch Protestants if they returned to Scotland would likely tip the majority in Scotland back towards the Union anyway
    Most English would be glad to see the back of Northern Ireland
    I most certainly would not
    Why not? We send more money each year to NI than we did to the EU (net).
    I believe in the Union and am a Tory, I am not a free market liberal
    The Union cannot be sustained as an abusive marriage by force. Scotland and Ireland have the right to self determination. It is not for us in England to infringe those rights.
    The Union can and will be maintained by this Tory government at all costs.

    In 2014 Scots voted no to independence in a once in a generation referendum and this government will ensure it is precisely that and ban indyref2 for the rest of its term.

    52% of Northern Irish voters still want to stay in the UK
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
    Only 8 Unionist out of 18 Northern Irish MPs elected in 2019, though. The lowest ratio since Partition.
    There were only 8 DUP MPs and 0 UUP MPs elected in 2010 too, the only difference in 2019 was North Down elected an Alliance MP not Lady Hermon.
    Lady Hermon is a Unionist, making 2010 50% Unionist MPs. In 2019, it was only 44.4%
    Yes, she was technically an "Independent Unionist", IIRC.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,941
    LadyG said:
    How is he going to cope with the debates? Maybe the Democrats will have to choose another candidate.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,916
    I also feel a bit meh. I was pleasantly surprised to hear both Sunak and his interviewer use the term deadweight loss.

    The furlough scheme was/is great and has saved us from mass unemployment. But the job retention thing is dreadfully inefficient. The youth job placement looks similar to other failed apprenticeship ideas to me. The cheap meals out might be a good idea, but subsidising eating out is a pretty strange incentive to put in place.

    Dogs that didn't bark: universities and adult education? Now is a great time for govt to be getting people back into study, either university or adult education.
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    Meal deal seems to be the Labour line, focus grouped
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    Fantastic to see end of over 75 free TV licenses, a really bad Labour policy now scrapped
This discussion has been closed.