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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In betting terms the Moran-Davey battle in the LD race looks close but there’s little to base things on

In the aftermath of Jo Swinson defeat in her constituency at the December 2019 general election the Lib Dems decided to postpone the process for selecting her replacement until after the planned 2020 May local elections.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First! Like Ed

Gallowgate

I miss Super Jo

IanB2

FPT:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Gallowgate said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We really must be crazy as a country to be unlocking on the scale we are doing. The Pillar 2 data clearly shows that the Rona is still here and angry. America unlocked and CDC say its out of control there. There's even spikes in countries who had substantial lock downs...

What alternative is there? We can't stay "locked down" forever.

Its a horrible thing to balance - I get that. But you have to balance off people dying vs the government continuing to support people. Despite all the bullshit being put about (our "patriotic duty" to drink and shop FFS) this thing is not remotely done and shows every sign of making a comeback with a vengeance.

A pint (and a dirty burger) outdoors in the fresh air with spacing? Sounds like bliss. But there's only a few that can manage that, and we're already seeing the selfish stupidity of the public. Pour alcohol down their throats and imagine the "fun" thats to be had.

And the other point made by More or Less was the very striking age gradient of risk. Anyone under 35 has more chance of dying this year in a road accident than from the virus, and most of the few such deaths have been people with medical conditions. A healthy person in their 20s or early 30s has next to no risk of even serious illness if they catch the virus.

The problem of course - and surely this is the US story - is that they take the virus back to their families.

Re America I have seen two estimates now of the anticipated future infection rate being 100,000 and 160,000 per day. At this rate, whether intended or not, they are going for herd immunity.

One wonders what the death rate might be a month or two down the line?

So far the US has done pretty well at holding the death rate down as case numbers have risen. They've bought up the world's supply of remdesvir and are probably better prepared than anyone for coping with the consequences of infection, despite their incompetence at preventing its spread.

Barnesian

Ed Davey is well ahead on nominations

RochdalePioneers

I did see a twitter poll that put Moran ahead but most of the internal reportage suggests Davey is ahead including the nomination process (which is largely symbolic now as both long since passed the threshhold needed to be on the ballot).

I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.

Big_G_NorthWales

To be honest neither inspire and Starmer has probably stolen their clothes

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/justinmadders/status/1278257062561153024

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1278261586155757576

Morris_Dancer

FPT: thanks, Sir Norfolk.

I'd prefer Davey.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Gallowgate said:

I miss Super Jo

Yes, I miss Mr Grimond too, but there we go.

Morris_Dancer

F1: Ferrari does a Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1277996140479352837

nichomar

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: thanks, Sir Norfolk.

I'd prefer Davey.

Davey is the only sane choice

Gallowgate

FPT - Northumbria Police have been policing mask usage quite heavily on the Newcastle Metro. Uptake is near universal now in my experience.

SirNorfolkPassmore

On topic, I think Ed Davey is the value bet and will probably win, although it would rather be fighting the last war.

IanB2

RochdalePioneers said:

I did see a twitter poll that put Moran ahead but most of the internal reportage suggests Davey is ahead including the nomination process (which is largely symbolic now as both long since passed the threshhold needed to be on the ballot).

I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.

My sense as well.

First time around, Moran would have been a shoo-in, but a consequence of the 2019 election is that members are now thinking a little more about the potential shortcomings of candidates, perhaps particularly a female one.

My sense is that there will be a significant age differential in the voting pattern.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Ferrari does a Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1277996140479352837

Did they picture of Mussolini in the livery ?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Big_G_NorthWales said:

To be honest neither inspire and Starmer has probably stolen their clothes

On balance, a moderate Labour leader helps the Lib Dems. There were many problems with the last Lib Dem election campaign that were within the party's control, but fear of Corbyn was a huge one that basically wasn't.

Put it this way, in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, which is more effective for a Tory campaigner... "vote Moran/Davey, get Corbyn" or "vote Moran/Davey, get Starmer"? For a lot of swing voters, the first is terrifying, whereas the second is attractive if anything.

Stocky

RochdalePioneers said:

I did see a twitter poll that put Moran ahead but most of the internal reportage suggests Davey is ahead including the nomination process (which is largely symbolic now as both long since passed the threshhold needed to be on the ballot).

I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.

!! Have I missed something - you gone back to the LibDems again?

Benpointer

Little to base it on and little to get enthused about tbh.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Ferrari does a Ferrari.

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1277996140479352837

Major LOL.

Also for this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/53190329
...The legendary Brazilian commissioned Mexican artist Hugo Escobedo to capture his fantasy grand prix line-up in an oil painting. Juan Fangio, Stirling Moss, Jackie Stewart, Emerson Fittipaldi, Niki Lauda, and of course, Senna himself - the greatest drivers in history.

He gave Escobedo two instructions: first, he must exclude French multiple world champion Alain Prost, his bitter rival; and secondly, pole position among this galaxy of superstars must be filled by Clark. "After all, he was the best of the best," Senna said...

(I agree with Senna's assessment of Clark.)

kle4

kamski said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1277990240700059649?s=20

Some sense. Although really we can do both, which means a lack of histrionics about, say, Roman emperors for having slaves whilst still noting slavery is bad.

Although when people talk about "the standards of the time", they often seem to mean the standards of a small group of people of the time. Like say, the opinions of slave-owners of the time, rather than the opinions of, I don't know, slaves of the time.

It's hard to know what non elites felt about their times. But it may be a leap to assume because people might not like being slaves themselves that they were definitely anti slavery. People are generally anti being massacred but might well support massacring others. (Bear in mind this particular discussion was on Roman slavery)

Now, enough about the ancient past and onto the LDs.

Pro_Rata

Barnesian said:

Ed Davey is well ahead on nominations

I missed it, has Daisy said no?

Philip_Thompson

FPT since I just saw I was name checked in someone else's post.

kjh said:

So 'More or Less' finished with a special summary of the Covid outbreak in the UK. As usual it was excellent and I recommend a listen. Too much to report here but a few interesting bits of info.

a) Whereas places like Italy had regional outbreaks we splattered it all over the country by millions returning from travelling home from Italy, Spain and France. It is estimated 1306 (why so specific a number?) infected people started pockets of infection all over the country. I have not considered this as a key factor before compared to other countries.

b) It is now estimated If we had locked down 1 week earlier the deaths could have been reduced by 75%.

c) BJ both lied and mislead Parliament by his statement on NHS patients moved to care homes (listen for details). Although it should be noted that several other countries also had appalling Care Home issues.

d) Testing was far too late. Although we have high number of tests now compared to other countries it is the high numbers early on that matters. A comparison with Germany was made who no longer need the number of tests so although our numbers compared to them is comparable it is also meaningless.

e) And for those on here arguing it is the number of tests and not the number of people tested that matters (thinking of Philip T here in particular) the number of people tested is still outstanding after a month. The point was made that the number of tests is irrelevant. The number of people tested is the meaningful figure.

To be fair at the time we had the discussion which was quite a while back the number of people tested was being reported in the daily Tweet headline figures. Its not anymore.

My point I was making is that the number of people tested is in the headline figures so isn't being buried. Since the facts have changed and that's no longer the case, I would not make that argument anymore.

For what its worth I think the figures for the number of people tested should be in the headline figures and I don't understand why they're not. If they're worried about inconsistent data then put a caveat that the data may be inconsistent or something else, or explain why it is, better than no data at all.

ClippP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

To be honest neither inspire and Starmer has probably stolen their clothes

The Tories had already tried that in recent elections, and for that matter, so did Corbyn. However, they do speak of wolves in sheep´s clothing. Now is no time for wolves, I think.

Casino_Royale

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Pro_Rata

And FPT:

Is it a possibility that pillar 2 testing is actually suppressing the published, pillar 1 numbers...?

Scenario: person turfs up ill at hospital, having already confirmed a positive pillar 2 test. Prior to pillar 2, they would have been tested in hospital and been added to pillar 1. Does that pillar 1 test still take place and get registered in the numbers?

RochdalePioneers

There is clearly a split in the membership over the direction of travel. We have a group absolutely clear that the coalition should be erased from history and another group who want to take the successes and earn the lessons from it.

I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.

Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.

Philip_Thompson

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?

Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Stocky

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Agreed - this is what is sorely needed. Davey could do this. I`m unconvinced about Moran`s liberal credentials. In interviews you could guess she is a Labour politician.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

I did see a twitter poll that put Moran ahead but most of the internal reportage suggests Davey is ahead including the nomination process (which is largely symbolic now as both long since passed the threshhold needed to be on the ballot).

I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.

I thought you had joined Labour again?

Stocky

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?

Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Gosh - wouldn`t that be wonderful. Be still my beating heart.

Scott_xP

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Ferrari does a Ferrari.

Have you read Adrian Newey's biography?

It has some interesting stuff about aerodynamics and the evolution of cars between seasons, and of course details about Senna's crash.

It's a bit fomulaic, and repetitive (like a modern F1 race) but worth a look.

Also, my overall impression of the man himself as described in the book is he seems like a bit of a shit, but that hasn't hampered his career.

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

There is clearly a split in the membership over the direction of travel. We have a group absolutely clear that the coalition should be erased from history and another group who want to take the successes and earn the lessons from it.

I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.

Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.

The hostile environment to migrants began during Labour's last government. Windrush scandal dated back to 2008/9.

So how do you think that happened after they left government?

ClippP

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

Wulfrun_Phil

RochdalePioneers said:

I did see a twitter poll that put Moran ahead but most of the internal reportage suggests Davey is ahead including the nomination process (which is largely symbolic now as both long since passed the threshhold needed to be on the ballot).

I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.

If the LDs were serious about trying to reach a limited electoral accommodation with Labour at the next GE, something that it's conceivable that Starmer could be open to, they would be wise to step back from electing as leader yet another cabinet minister who served under David Cameron. One who also had a major role in privatising the Post Office.

Nick Clegg is still doing his best to remind us of that era, drawing on all his experience of publically defending the indefensible in his new job, just as he once tried to sell his about turn on student loans.

On the other hand, Moran comes across as a lightweight.

Philip_Thompson

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

StuartDickson

Martin Baxter’s (Electoral Calculus) latest UK GE prediction:

Prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
Conservative majority of 18 seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Alistair

FTPT

MrEd said:

OllyT said:

Nigelb said:

edmundintokyo said:

OllyT said:

In terms of betting tips Mr Eds posts need to carry a severe health warning. They sound authoritative till you realise just how extremely selective he is being in the information he uses.

Stop moaning, making the case for how Trump could win isn't a nice job but someone's got to do it.

Agreed; I think his posts have value, whether or not I agree with them.
And he's not averse to considering criticism.

I did agree that the posts are authoritative and that is why I consider them dangerous from a betting point of view.

The comment I took exception to was the assertion that Trump had a "good chance" of flipping Minnesota because Biden is opposed to the XL Pipeline.

Clinton won Mn by 1.5% and the latest poll has Biden 16% ahead two before that gave a 5% and 12% lead. I don't know enough about Minnesota to call it but the obvious question is why are the polls not picking up a move to Trump because of the pipeline?

I would hope that most would do their own research but I think that stating that Trump has a good chance of winning Mn needed qualification.

I'll answer your point. First, as I have been consistent saying on here, state polling is notoriously bad. There has been one poll on Minnesota (maybe there has been more and I have missed them). Second, more to the point, Minnesota has been trending GOP for the past few elections. It is a state that is heavily weighted towards resources which is one of the reasons the Democrats have been losing share in recent elections. So, given the trends, it is not hard to see it shifting.

In 2000 Al Gore got 47.91% on 48.4% of the national vote
In 2016 Hilary Clinton got 46.44% on 48.2% of the national vote

That's quite a geological time trend there.

Essexit

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

Most of the people you're thinking of jumped ship to TIG (lol) or stood down in 2019.

RochdalePioneers

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is clearly a split in the membership over the direction of travel. We have a group absolutely clear that the coalition should be erased from history and another group who want to take the successes and earn the lessons from it.

I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.

Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.

The hostile environment to migrants began during Labour's last government. Windrush scandal dated back to 2008/9.

So how do you think that happened after they left government?

You berate May for the hostile environment...

eek

Something I've been pointing out for a long time

https://unherd.com/2020/07/is-tony-blair-to-blame-for-our-tribal-politicians/

With 24 hours news it was bad, with Social media its far far worse

eek

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

One party is, the leader of the other party is harder to define as he definitely supped with the insaner right wing of his party (and others).

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is clearly a split in the membership over the direction of travel. We have a group absolutely clear that the coalition should be erased from history and another group who want to take the successes and earn the lessons from it.

I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.

Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.

The hostile environment to migrants began during Labour's last government. Windrush scandal dated back to 2008/9.

So how do you think that happened after they left government?

You berate May for the hostile environment...

I berate May for making matters worse as Home Secretary. Not for starting it as PM ...

RochdalePioneers

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Yorkcity

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

StuartDickson

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Not very liberal saying a blank no to IndyRef2.

Philip_Thompson

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

One party is, the leader of the other party is harder to define as he definitely supped with the insaner right wing of his party (and others).

How are you defining right in your eyes?

Economically?
Socially?
Europe?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

Pre-lockdown, on the doorsteps, people spoke of little else.

ydoethur

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

El_Capitano

Stocky said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Agreed - this is what is sorely needed. Davey could do this. I`m unconvinced about Moran`s liberal credentials. In interviews you could guess she is a Labour politician.

In broad terms, Moran is a Social Democrat, Davey is an old-style Liberal. Which is one of the reasons I'll be voting for Moran.

I think Davey will probably squeak it, though; and then fail to inspire over the next few years, leading to the Lib Dems continuing to wallow in single figures. A Moran-led party might crash and burn, but then it might also do surprisingly well, particularly in southern constituencies like her own. Given that the Lib Dems right now are achieving the square root of bugger all, I think it's worth a shot.

Fishing

RochdalePioneers said:

There is clearly a split in the membership over the direction of travel. We have a group absolutely clear that the coalition should be erased from history and another group who want to take the successes and earn the lessons from it.

I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.

Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.

I don't think it necessarily would, unless people want to be convinced. On your points about what happened after the coalition -

The LibDems had an EU referendum in their 2010 manifesto, didn't they?

Not sure where you get chaos and penury from - the economy grew between 2015 and 2019.

And the hostile environment didn't do much as immigration continued at very high levels.

ydoethur

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

The ancestor party of the Liberal Democrats (or one of them) legalised that in the Marriages Act 1836.

StuartDickson

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

Are you sure Westminster has the mandate to pass such legislation for NI? My impression was that they are just keeping things ticking over and are taking no “political” decisions. Pleased to be corrected if got wrong end of stick.

Richard_Nabavi

My only dip into this market so far was an early £3 bet on Wera Hobhouse at Betfair odds of 143. Luckily I was able to lay £2 of it off after she'd withdrawn, at 140. So I'm in for a loss of £1.

I think I can hide that when I make my quarterly report to She Who Must Be Obeyed, so it shouldn't threaten the renewal of my licence to engage in political betting.

The question is: should I punt on Ed Davey? Ladbrokes' 2.20 looks quite attractive.

nichomar

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

If you want a government under the control of party donors vote labour or Tory if you don’t look elsewhere.

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Is the Green Party of England and Wales a “national party”? No S, no NI.

Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.

Philip_Thompson

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

MaxPB

StuartDickson said:

Martin Baxter’s (Electoral Calculus) latest UK GE prediction:

Prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
Conservative majority of 18 seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

That's pretty poor for Labour after months of Boris and Dom completely fucking up in the virus and everything else.

RochdalePioneers

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

kinabalu

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

Dominic Cummings is a moderate? I hope for your sake he doesn't come across that comment. He'll be livid.

edmundintokyo

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Unfortunately the constituency for that in Britain is like 3 dudes and a dog named Albert

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

Makes sense, thanks for the explanation.

Do you get a vote in this election or did you (re-)join too late?

Philip_Thompson

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

Dominic Cummings is a moderate? I hope for your sake he doesn't come across that comment. He'll be livid.

Dominics Cummings isn't a Conservative. He's not heading the party, Johnson is and Johnson is a moderate.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

So Labour rejected you and now you want revenge. A bit petty no?

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Is the Green Party of England and Wales a “national party”? No S, no NI.

Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.

By that logic there is only one national party.

As the Greens are in alliance with parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland - like the Liberal Democrats and Labour are in a looser structure with parties in Northern Ireland - and would undoubtedly caucus together if any were elected, I think you are splitting hairs somewhat there.

Wulfrun_Phil

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

Well one of them is. And those within the Labour party who back the return to sanity had a huge if underreported victory yesterday with the decision by Labour's NEC to elect NEC constituency reps by STV.

The present split of constituency seats on the NEC is 7-2 in favour of Momentum, elected by FPTP. In the NEC by-elections held in April, had the far left run a single slate, they would not have lost both vacant NEC seats and the CLP section of the NEC would still be split 9-0 in favour of the far left candidates. There was an outside risk that it would revert to 9-0 in the far left's slate in this September's elections, leaving controversial votes on a knife edge.

Under STV, the balance is more likely to be 5-4 one way or the other. So the far left has basically lost any prospect of winning key votes on the NEC that might undermine Starmer's leadership. There is an attempt underway to challenge the NEC vote in the courts, but it's risible with no chance tbh.

So Starmer's victory is complete and I definitely don't feel that I'm in the wrong party.

StuartDickson

MaxPB said:

StuartDickson said:

Martin Baxter’s (Electoral Calculus) latest UK GE prediction:

Prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
Conservative majority of 18 seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

That's pretty poor for Labour after months of Boris and Dom completely fucking up in the virus and everything else.

Agreed. I’m beginning to wonder if I (and in fairness many others) have been over-rating Keir Starmer? Compared to Corbyn he’s a superstar, but in absolute terms he’s still pretty mediocre.

That Lib Dem figure of 6 MPs is truly horrific: Baxter predicts them losing all 4 of their Scottish MPs. And yet another SCon wipeout (-6). The only non-SNP MP would be Ian Murray in my “home” constituency of Edinburgh South.

kinabalu

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?

Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Gosh - wouldn`t that be wonderful. Be still my beating heart.

Challenge for you (or anyone) if not too big a faff -

A concise description of what "liberalism" means - avoiding 'motherhood and apple pie' sentiments which no person of sound mind and good character could take issue with.

StuartDickson

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Unfortunately the constituency for that in Britain is like 3 dudes and a dog named Albert

Nonsense. Plenty of liberals in Scotland. Only problem is that next to none of them votes SLD. Why? Because they are fundamentally illiberal.

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

It depends on what you mean by 'humanist.'

If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.

If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.

However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.

RochdalePioneers

Fishing said:

Not sure where you get chaos and penury from - the economy grew between 2015 and 2019.

We had two re-elections between 2015 and 2019 because the party in power didn't like the result. We had the disastrous Brexit referendum and then a rapid succession of Brexit secretaries. We had the 2nd substitute PM sack so many of his own MPs that he lost his majority and spent three months begging parliament to dissolve itself. You don't think any of that was chaos?

Which explains why you can't see just how many people have been reduced to grinding abject disgusting poverty.

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Unfortunately the constituency for that in Britain is like 3 dudes and a dog named Albert

Nonsense. Plenty of liberals in Scotland. Only problem is that next to none of them votes SLD. Why? Because they are fundamentally illiberal.

The liberals in Scotland are fundamentally illiberal, therefore they do not vote SLD?

I think you may want to rephrase this...

MattW

First personal knowledge of a Corona victim this morning; the postman says someone at the office has tested positive.

isam

Highest profile victim of racial abuse in the Premier League refuses to be associated with BLM moment

https://twitter.com/mailsport/status/1278252008856793089?s=21

Stocky

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

Welcome back and I`m pleased you are backing Davey. We desperately need a liberal voice in this country.

RochdalePioneers

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

Makes sense, thanks for the explanation.

Do you get a vote in this election or did you (re-)join too late?

I get a vote. Had planned to wait out the summer and see what happens. But as the dust settled from my "I'm rejoining Labour" lunacy it was increasingly clear to me that leaving the LibDems was a stupid call made under duress. I was a member of the red team for 25 years - I had a relapse. Mea Culpa.

Here's the fun bit. The local Labour activists were spitting with fury that I should return. If they are that positive about decades long activists returning, imagine how much fun they will have trying to win back LLLLLLL Labour voting for ever but now Tory voters...

kicorse

Did anything happen on 28th June to explain that sudden lengthening in Moran's odds?

Or is it just that hardly anyone is betting on this market and things like this will happen randomly? <£40k matched, so probably the latter.

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Is the Green Party of England and Wales a “national party”? No S, no NI.

Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.

By that logic there is only one national party.

As the Greens are in alliance with parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland - like the Liberal Democrats and Labour are in a looser structure with parties in Northern Ireland - and would undoubtedly caucus together if any were elected, I think you are splitting hairs somewhat there.

Well, as the SNP are in alliance with Plaid, and more informally with the English Greens and the SDLP, are we a British national party too? I think not.

Pro_Rata

eek said:

Something I've been pointing out for a long time

https://unherd.com/2020/07/is-tony-blair-to-blame-for-our-tribal-politicians/

With 24 hours news it was bad, with Social media its far far worse

Sopel, I think, made a very forceful case for Bill Clinton being the start of the road towards Trump in the USA a year or so back.

GarethoftheVale2

El_Capitano said:

Stocky said:

Casino_Royale said:

I’d be interested in whichever candidate bravely advocated the core tenants of Liberalism from first principles. Really adding something very important to the national debate.

No?

Me neither.

Agreed - this is what is sorely needed. Davey could do this. I`m unconvinced about Moran`s liberal credentials. In interviews you could guess she is a Labour politician.

In broad terms, Moran is a Social Democrat, Davey is an old-style Liberal. Which is one of the reasons I'll be voting for Moran.

I think Davey will probably squeak it, though; and then fail to inspire over the next few years, leading to the Lib Dems continuing to wallow in single figures. A Moran-led party might crash and burn, but then it might also do surprisingly well, particularly in southern constituencies like her own. Given that the Lib Dems right now are achieving the square root of bugger all, I think it's worth a shot.

The LDs should pick Davey, if you look at the type of seats on their target list like Cheltenham and Winchester they tend to be economically right wing but socially liberal (and remain voting):

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

These are the sort of places where the Coalition was probably quite popular. A centrist and moderate LDs could do quite well next time around with no Corbyn to scare the voters off.

Hareing off to the left under Moran could scare those voters off and is unlikely to pick up votes elsewhere. If the Momentum types leave or are pushed from Labour then they will almost certainly go to the untainted Greens rather than the LDs

MaxPB

StuartDickson said:

MaxPB said:

StuartDickson said:

Martin Baxter’s (Electoral Calculus) latest UK GE prediction:

Prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
Conservative majority of 18 seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

That's pretty poor for Labour after months of Boris and Dom completely fucking up in the virus and everything else.

Agreed. I’m beginning to wonder if I (and in fairness many others) have been over-rating Keir Starmer? Compared to Corbyn he’s a superstar, but in absolute terms he’s still pretty mediocre.

That Lib Dem figure of 6 MPs is truly horrific: Baxter predicts them losing all 4 of their Scottish MPs. And yet another SCon wipeout (-6). The only non-SNP MP would be Ian Murray in my “home” constituency of Edinburgh South.

Yes, until now he's been benefitting from being not-Corbyn but that is starting to fade and as people are starting to wonder if he is anything other than an empty vessel wanting to be PM.

He has no policy, he hasn't forced any major u-turns by the government and his bending of the knee showed he seems more interested in a cheap headline, not actually tackling the issue of the day. All of his letter writing and lawyerly carping adds to this sense of him being someone who has no solutions, just a talking head who can only be negative.

That's what a lot of my friends see in him as well and it's not as though he hasn't had the chance to lay out the "Labour way" of doing things wrt the virus or BLM etc... On brexit it was always going to be difficult to lay out an alternative path because the EU negotiates with the government of the day not the opposition. The virus is a purely domestic issue, he needed to set out what Labour would do differently so when the government inevitably fucked it up he had the chance to say "why didn't you listen".

BluestBlue

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

For goodness' sake, the next time you feel an uncontrollable urge for something red and ridiculous, just buy a sports car like a normal person...

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

It depends on what you mean by 'humanist.'

If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.

If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.

However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.

Yes my marriage was non-religious as I'm an atheist and I'm guessing my wife is either atheist or agnostic (never really asked).

Not sure why a humanist inspired civil ceremony couldn't be done if that's what your into?

ClippP

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

This post underlines one of the differences between the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. We are all capable of having a bit of a wobble at times - especially if we are still capable of thought. Very glad that your local Lib Dems did the right thing.

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

It depends on what you mean by 'humanist.'

If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.

If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.

However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.

Yes my marriage was non-religious as I'm an atheist and I'm guessing my wife is either atheist or agnostic (never really asked).

Not sure why a humanist inspired civil ceremony couldn't be done if that's what your into?

It could. Very easily. I've played at several!

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Is the Green Party of England and Wales a “national party”? No S, no NI.

Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.

By that logic there is only one national party.

As the Greens are in alliance with parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland - like the Liberal Democrats and Labour are in a looser structure with parties in Northern Ireland - and would undoubtedly caucus together if any were elected, I think you are splitting hairs somewhat there.

Well, as the SNP are in alliance with Plaid, and more informally with the English Greens and the SDLP, are we a British national party too? I think not.

Oooh, there's such an easy pun I could make there...

But planning calls!

StuartDickson

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

Makes sense, thanks for the explanation.

Do you get a vote in this election or did you (re-)join too late?

I get a vote. Had planned to wait out the summer and see what happens. But as the dust settled from my "I'm rejoining Labour" lunacy it was increasingly clear to me that leaving the LibDems was a stupid call made under duress. I was a member of the red team for 25 years - I had a relapse. Mea Culpa.

Here's the fun bit. The local Labour activists were spitting with fury that I should return. If they are that positive about decades long activists returning, imagine how much fun they will have trying to win back LLLLLLL Labour voting for ever but now Tory voters...

Very important point you make there: local activists must be open and big-hearted.

Over the years literally tens of thousands of formerly Lib Dem, Labour and Conservative members and supporters have joined the SNP. They could not have done that if our local branches and CAs were in any way hostile. We welcome them with open arms! One retained Yes voter is worth one vote, but one converted No voter is worth two votes! 😊

HYUFD

Davey should win, last LD members poll had Davey 52% and Moran 24%

https://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-poll-on-lib-dem-leadership-ed-davey-is-a-country-mile-ahead-with-caveats-galore-63298.html.

After losing to Jo Swinson in 2019 it seems Davey will win the leadership this time.

Given Norman Lamb lost to Tim Farron in 2015 it would be the first time the more liberal rather than social democrat candidate has won since Nick Clegg

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

My only dip into this market so far was an early £3 bet on Wera Hobhouse at Betfair odds of 143. Luckily I was able to lay £2 of it off after she'd withdrawn, at 140. So I'm in for a loss of £1.

I think I can hide that when I make my quarterly report to She Who Must Be Obeyed, so it shouldn't threaten the renewal of my licence to engage in political betting.

The question is: should I punt on Ed Davey? Ladbrokes' 2.20 looks quite attractive.

How are you going to hide from her your losses investment in the Farr Vintners sale which has just launched?

El_Capitano

HYUFD said:

Davey should win, last LD members poll had Davey 52% and Moran 24%

https://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-poll-on-lib-dem-leadership-ed-davey-is-a-country-mile-ahead-with-caveats-galore-63298.html.

After losing to Jo Swinson in 2019 it seems Davey will win the leadership this time.

Given Norman Lamb lost to Tim Farron in 2015 it would be the first time the more liberal rather than social democrat candidate has won since Nick Clegg

And Clegg, as we all know, was a roaring success, taking the party from 60-odd seats to 8.

kinabalu

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

Dominic Cummings is a moderate? I hope for your sake he doesn't come across that comment. He'll be livid.

Dominics Cummings isn't a Conservative. He's not heading the party, Johnson is and Johnson is a moderate.

OK - he's not heading the party, this is true.

Boris Johnson, I agree, is a "moderate" in the sense that he is not wedded - either intellectually or emotionally - to a right wing ideology.

See how carefully I have phrased this (about Johnson) so as to agree with your statement but at the same time hint at an important underlying disagreement?

But the main point I wish to make - make again rather since I mentioned it yesterday - is how fabulous it is to see "Johnson" instead of "Boris" now flowing from your pen. Some think this is trivial but I do not. It adds much gravitas to posts from Johnson supporters when they use his surname. Also it's just a tiny minority who do this, so they stand out.

TheWhiteRabbit

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

It depends on what you mean by 'humanist.'

If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.

If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.

However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.

Yes my marriage was non-religious as I'm an atheist and I'm guessing my wife is either atheist or agnostic (never really asked).

Not sure why a humanist inspired civil ceremony couldn't be done if that's what your into?

It could. Very easily. I've played at several!

It's about the need for a Registrant, I believe, which is not a requirement for a religious service. It's an interesting point.

They also want to be able to get married anywhere, but I think they will lose that part.

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Yorkcity said:

I hope the Lib Dems and Labour can press the government to pass a law to allow humanist marriages in England and NI very soon.
Seems long overdue to me.

How are they not legal already?

It depends on what you mean by 'humanist.'

If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.

If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.

However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.

Yes my marriage was non-religious as I'm an atheist and I'm guessing my wife is either atheist or agnostic (never really asked).

Not sure why a humanist inspired civil ceremony couldn't be done if that's what your into?

It could. Very easily. I've played at several!

I'm confused then. What's the issue? Is it just being pedantic or is there actually a problem that needs fixing?

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Is the Green Party of England and Wales a “national party”? No S, no NI.

Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.

By that logic there is only one national party.

As the Greens are in alliance with parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland - like the Liberal Democrats and Labour are in a looser structure with parties in Northern Ireland - and would undoubtedly caucus together if any were elected, I think you are splitting hairs somewhat there.

Well, as the SNP are in alliance with Plaid, and more informally with the English Greens and the SDLP, are we a British national party too? I think not.

Oooh, there's such an easy pun I could make there...

But planning calls!

I set you up with a beautiful lob in front of an open goal, and you decline to thump the ball home. Jolly poor show.

CorrectHorseBattery

The Lib Dems must be to the right of Labour, so they pick up seats that won't vote Labour.

Competing with Labour on the left is moronic.

RochdalePioneers

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

I was. Took a relapse whilst in a terrible mental state back in April to cement that

Are you back in the yellows or reds now? I'm confused.

Yellows. Under a massive depressive cloud I listened to the people telling me to rejoin the reds and wage war against the Trots. So abruptly quit the LibDems and applied to rejoin Labour. Which prompted a massive shit storm in the CLP and my application was rejected and rightly so.

Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.

So Labour rejected you and now you want revenge. A bit petty no?

If you want to interpret it that way thats up to you. I know that I will have some rocks thrown at me for this so it's accepted.

I QUIT Labour. Literally walked out of a meeting last July a couple of months short of my 25th anniversary. I then joined the LibDems at the beginning of September, was directly involved in the election locally, was appointed treasurer. Had made a fresh start and was happy with it. The aberration was abruptly quitting and trying to rejoin Labour - they rejected my application and not only is that their right but they did me a favour in doing so.

You know who wants revenge? Its many of my former colleagues who reacted so viscerally. This seems to be a pattern with the left - "though cowards flinch and traitors sneer" means that the scab is the worst of the worst. Well newsflash comrades, you need to win back MILLIONS of ex Labour voters. Many of whom voted Tory last year. You didn't want me back and thats fine. But you have to welcome back voters who unlike me voted Tory. And for so many of them that isn't something they will do willingly...

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

My only dip into this market so far was an early £3 bet on Wera Hobhouse at Betfair odds of 143. Luckily I was able to lay £2 of it off after she'd withdrawn, at 140. So I'm in for a loss of £1.

I think I can hide that when I make my quarterly report to She Who Must Be Obeyed, so it shouldn't threaten the renewal of my licence to engage in political betting.

The question is: should I punt on Ed Davey? Ladbrokes' 2.20 looks quite attractive.

How are you going to hide from her your losses investment in the Farr Vintners sale which has just launched?

That's a tricky one. Normally I get the stuff delivered to my office so I can bring it home and sneak it into the cellar at an opportune moment. Can't do that during lockdown.

Of course, that hasn't stopped me dipping into the 2019 En Primeurs...

kle4

ydoethur said:

'The general election left the party with just 11 MPs even though its national vote share was up markedly. Of those who were elected the male-female split is 4-7 making it the first national party to have women in the majority in its parliamentary party.'

The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.

Rookie error to ignore the separation of the Green parties.

eristdoof

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?

Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Given that the word liberal in terms of politics has a different meaning in every country, I'm sure both candidates type of liberalism fits in somewhere.

Philip_Thompson

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ClippP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Have either candidate gone into what it means to be a Liberal?
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?

Moderate Labour and most certainly moderate Tories are almost certainly in the wrong party.

No, not if they want a moderate government.

If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.

Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates

Dominic Cummings is a moderate? I hope for your sake he doesn't come across that comment. He'll be livid.

Dominics Cummings isn't a Conservative. He's not heading the party, Johnson is and Johnson is a moderate.

OK - he's not heading the party, this is true.

Boris Johnson, I agree, is a "moderate" in the sense that he is not wedded - either intellectually or emotionally - to a right wing ideology.

See how carefully and deftly I have phrased this (about Johnson) so as to agree with your statement but at the same time hint at an underlying and important disagreement?

But the main point I wish to make - make again rather since I mentioned it yesterday - is how fabulous it is to see "Johnson" instead of "Boris" now flowing from your pen. Some think this is trivial but I do not. It adds much gravitas to posts from Johnson supporters when they use his surname. Also it's still just a small minority who do this, so they stand out.

To be fair I don't consciously choose either. He is Boris and he is Johnson, you know who I mean either way and I don't particularly care at all. Its really not an issue that bothers me whatsoever.