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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In betting terms the Moran-Davey battle in the LD race looks c

In the aftermath of Jo Swinson defeat in her constituency at the December 2019 general election the Lib Dems decided to postpone the process for selecting her replacement until after the planned 2020 May local elections.
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I will be voting for Ed Davey and may well do some phone canvassing for him.
https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1278261586155757576
I'd prefer Davey.
https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1277996140479352837
First time around, Moran would have been a shoo-in, but a consequence of the 2019 election is that members are now thinking a little more about the potential shortcomings of candidates, perhaps particularly a female one.
My sense is that there will be a significant age differential in the voting pattern.
Put it this way, in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, which is more effective for a Tory campaigner... "vote Moran/Davey, get Corbyn" or "vote Moran/Davey, get Starmer"? For a lot of swing voters, the first is terrifying, whereas the second is attractive if anything.
Also for this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/53190329
...The legendary Brazilian commissioned Mexican artist Hugo Escobedo to capture his fantasy grand prix line-up in an oil painting. Juan Fangio, Stirling Moss, Jackie Stewart, Emerson Fittipaldi, Niki Lauda, and of course, Senna himself - the greatest drivers in history.
He gave Escobedo two instructions: first, he must exclude French multiple world champion Alain Prost, his bitter rival; and secondly, pole position among this galaxy of superstars must be filled by Clark. "After all, he was the best of the best," Senna said...
(I agree with Senna's assessment of Clark.)
Now, enough about the ancient past and onto the LDs.
My point I was making is that the number of people tested is in the headline figures so isn't being buried. Since the facts have changed and that's no longer the case, I would not make that argument anymore.
For what its worth I think the figures for the number of people tested should be in the headline figures and I don't understand why they're not. If they're worried about inconsistent data then put a caveat that the data may be inconsistent or something else, or explain why it is, better than no data at all.
No?
Me neither.
Is it a possibility that pillar 2 testing is actually suppressing the published, pillar 1 numbers...?
Scenario: person turfs up ill at hospital, having already confirmed a positive pillar 2 test. Prior to pillar 2, they would have been tested in hospital and been added to pillar 1. Does that pillar 1 test still take place and get registered in the numbers?
I sit firmly in the latter group. Davey is pitching very clearly on an "I took on the Tories and won" platform and I think it makes sense. Claim credit for all the LibDem things done during the coalition - the pupil premium, the pensions triple lock, gay marriage, the environment - and heap blame for all the failures onto the Tories. Including the idiotic tuition fees u-turn enacted by Clegg and a couple of his closest team to the ignorance of the rest of the team.
Claim credit for the good stuff. Blame the Tories for all the bad stuff. I think that can work, especially as the final line is "look what happened when we left government" - the hostile environment to migrants, the referendum, chaos, penury.
Have either candidate gone into what makes them different than moderate Labour/Tories?
It has some interesting stuff about aerodynamics and the evolution of cars between seasons, and of course details about Senna's crash.
It's a bit fomulaic, and repetitive (like a modern F1 race) but worth a look.
Also, my overall impression of the man himself as described in the book is he seems like a bit of a shit, but that hasn't hampered his career.
So how do you think that happened after they left government?
Nick Clegg is still doing his best to remind us of that era, drawing on all his experience of publically defending the indefensible in his new job, just as he once tried to sell his about turn on student loans.
On the other hand, Moran comes across as a lightweight.
If you want a moderate left wing government go Labour, if you want a moderate right wing government go Tory. Abandoning those parties leads to them being taken up with the Corbynistas/HYUFDs of this world.
Thankfully right now both major parties seem to be headed by moderates
Prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, SNP 58, Lib Dem 6
Conservative majority of 18 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
In 2016 Hilary Clinton got 46.44% on 48.2% of the national vote
That's quite a geological time trend there.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/is-tony-blair-to-blame-for-our-tribal-politicians/
With 24 hours news it was bad, with Social media its far far worse
Seems long overdue to me.
Economically?
Socially?
Europe?
The Greens may feel this does them less than justice, of course.
I think Davey will probably squeak it, though; and then fail to inspire over the next few years, leading to the Lib Dems continuing to wallow in single figures. A Moran-led party might crash and burn, but then it might also do surprisingly well, particularly in southern constituencies like her own. Given that the Lib Dems right now are achieving the square root of bugger all, I think it's worth a shot.
The LibDems had an EU referendum in their 2010 manifesto, didn't they?
Not sure where you get chaos and penury from - the economy grew between 2015 and 2019.
And the hostile environment didn't do much as immigration continued at very high levels.
I think I can hide that when I make my quarterly report to She Who Must Be Obeyed, so it shouldn't threaten the renewal of my licence to engage in political betting.
The question is: should I punt on Ed Davey? Ladbrokes' 2.20 looks quite attractive.
Is the Liberal Democratic Party a “national party”? No NI.
Its only as the shit storm was raging that it was clear that my time in Labour really was done. I'm not a socialist, don't identify any longer with the state control ask the unions approach. My local LibDems are nice people, they understood my relapse, I've been welcomed back. I should have stood my ground and stuck with what I had started - but I genuinely went a little crazy through April and craved any kind of old world normal. When you are climbing the walls and feeling trapped, you make daft decisions. Mine was abruptly to try and rejoin Labour.
Do you get a vote in this election or did you (re-)join too late?
As the Greens are in alliance with parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland - like the Liberal Democrats and Labour are in a looser structure with parties in Northern Ireland - and would undoubtedly caucus together if any were elected, I think you are splitting hairs somewhat there.
The present split of constituency seats on the NEC is 7-2 in favour of Momentum, elected by FPTP. In the NEC by-elections held in April, had the far left run a single slate, they would not have lost both vacant NEC seats and the CLP section of the NEC would still be split 9-0 in favour of the far left candidates. There was an outside risk that it would revert to 9-0 in the far left's slate in this September's elections, leaving controversial votes on a knife edge.
Under STV, the balance is more likely to be 5-4 one way or the other. So the far left has basically lost any prospect of winning key votes on the NEC that might undermine Starmer's leadership. There is an attempt underway to challenge the NEC vote in the courts, but it's risible with no chance tbh.
So Starmer's victory is complete and I definitely don't feel that I'm in the wrong party.
That Lib Dem figure of 6 MPs is truly horrific: Baxter predicts them losing all 4 of their Scottish MPs. And yet another SCon wipeout (-6). The only non-SNP MP would be Ian Murray in my “home” constituency of Edinburgh South.
A concise description of what "liberalism" means - avoiding 'motherhood and apple pie' sentiments which no person of sound mind and good character could take issue with.
If you mean 'non-religious,' then they have been legal since the 1st January 1837.
If you consider 'humanism' as a distinct religious or philosophical belief, then they are not legal because the government disagrees with you.
However, there are a number of exemptions that mean in practice they would be allowed, if it weren't for the fact that nobody seems to be very bothered about it either way.
Which explains why you can't see just how many people have been reduced to grinding abject disgusting poverty.
I think you may want to rephrase this...
https://twitter.com/mailsport/status/1278252008856793089?s=21
Here's the fun bit. The local Labour activists were spitting with fury that I should return. If they are that positive about decades long activists returning, imagine how much fun they will have trying to win back LLLLLLL Labour voting for ever but now Tory voters...
Or is it just that hardly anyone is betting on this market and things like this will happen randomly? <£40k matched, so probably the latter.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
These are the sort of places where the Coalition was probably quite popular. A centrist and moderate LDs could do quite well next time around with no Corbyn to scare the voters off.
Hareing off to the left under Moran could scare those voters off and is unlikely to pick up votes elsewhere. If the Momentum types leave or are pushed from Labour then they will almost certainly go to the untainted Greens rather than the LDs
He has no policy, he hasn't forced any major u-turns by the government and his bending of the knee showed he seems more interested in a cheap headline, not actually tackling the issue of the day. All of his letter writing and lawyerly carping adds to this sense of him being someone who has no solutions, just a talking head who can only be negative.
That's what a lot of my friends see in him as well and it's not as though he hasn't had the chance to lay out the "Labour way" of doing things wrt the virus or BLM etc... On brexit it was always going to be difficult to lay out an alternative path because the EU negotiates with the government of the day not the opposition. The virus is a purely domestic issue, he needed to set out what Labour would do differently so when the government inevitably fucked it up he had the chance to say "why didn't you listen".
Not sure why a humanist inspired civil ceremony couldn't be done if that's what your into?
But planning calls!
Over the years literally tens of thousands of formerly Lib Dem, Labour and Conservative members and supporters have joined the SNP. They could not have done that if our local branches and CAs were in any way hostile. We welcome them with open arms! One retained Yes voter is worth one vote, but one converted No voter is worth two votes! 😊
https://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-poll-on-lib-dem-leadership-ed-davey-is-a-country-mile-ahead-with-caveats-galore-63298.html.
After losing to Jo Swinson in 2019 it seems Davey will win the leadership this time.
Given Norman Lamb lost to Tim Farron in 2015 it would be the first time the more liberal rather than social democrat candidate has won since Nick Clegg
lossesinvestment in the Farr Vintners sale which has just launched?Boris Johnson, I agree, is a "moderate" in the sense that he is not wedded - either intellectually or emotionally - to a right wing ideology.
See how carefully I have phrased this (about Johnson) so as to agree with your statement but at the same time hint at an important underlying disagreement?
But the main point I wish to make - make again rather since I mentioned it yesterday - is how fabulous it is to see "Johnson" instead of "Boris" now flowing from your pen. Some think this is trivial but I do not. It adds much gravitas to posts from Johnson supporters when they use his surname. Also it's just a tiny minority who do this, so they stand out.
They also want to be able to get married anywhere, but I think they will lose that part.
Competing with Labour on the left is moronic.
I QUIT Labour. Literally walked out of a meeting last July a couple of months short of my 25th anniversary. I then joined the LibDems at the beginning of September, was directly involved in the election locally, was appointed treasurer. Had made a fresh start and was happy with it. The aberration was abruptly quitting and trying to rejoin Labour - they rejected my application and not only is that their right but they did me a favour in doing so.
You know who wants revenge? Its many of my former colleagues who reacted so viscerally. This seems to be a pattern with the left - "though cowards flinch and traitors sneer" means that the scab is the worst of the worst. Well newsflash comrades, you need to win back MILLIONS of ex Labour voters. Many of whom voted Tory last year. You didn't want me back and thats fine. But you have to welcome back voters who unlike me voted Tory. And for so many of them that isn't something they will do willingly...
Of course, that hasn't stopped me dipping into the 2019 En Primeurs...