You're demented if you think Ireland, Spain and Portugal are about to enter some high-growth nirvana. They are locked into a currency whose interest rates and forex rates are tailored to Germany, and which now threatens to imprison them in a deflationary spiral.
Of course they will get some growth as they emerge, slowly, painfully out of the worst recession in a century, but you always get rebound growth in that situation. However the growth they will get will be much less than it would have been, if they were outside the euro from the off.
The euro was a bad idea executed disastrously, and it is still destroying jobs, lives and companies in the European periphery. That's all we need to know. All else is sophistry.
I'm sorry SeanT, but you're so blinkered in your Euro-obsession that you're ignoring the underlying changes. You're falling into Ambrose Evans-Pritchard land.
If you look at economies over time, the biggest determinant of economic growth is demographics; the second is labour market flexibility, and the third is the government spending as a percentage of GDP. The exchange rate is, believe it or not, a fairly minor factor.
However, you are right that the Eurozone was a major contributory factor behind the problems suffered by the periphery. The governments and people of Greece in particular, but to a certain extent the rest, saw interest rates fall following the introduction of the Eurozone, and this led to a borrowing binge. The economies of the periphery became dangerously unbalanced. (Of course, it is worth noting that Spain's building boom had already started, but the Euro was like throwing petrol onto a fire.)
But whichever way you want to spin it, the countries of the periphery are no longer living beyond their means. This has been appalling painful. But the fact that wages are lower, and labour market flexibility means they are now the ones attracting external investment.
Take Spain (the country which has done the most, and where the improvements are most obvious), Nissan is investing in a plant outside Barcelona to build its new 'Golf Killer'. Volkswagen now makes pretty much all its small car engines in Spain. These are long-cycle investments that will pay off in a growing Spanish automotive industry over the next decade.
Your argument seems to be: because of an exchange rate their can't control, Spain will not reap the benefits of structural reform. But this ignores the fact that in the days of Bretton-Woods (when countries couldn't control their currencies) labour market reform led, just as it does today, to structurally higher rates of growth.
I suspect the next seven years will see Germany (where the presence of the SPD in the coalition is going to push up labour costs and limit flexibility) fall behind, and Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Portugal push ahead.
You are going against the lessons of every other labour market liberalisation if you think otherwise, by allowing a factor which has historically had very little correlation with growth to dominate your view. And you are also choosing to ignore the fact that all the periphery have structurally cut government spending as a percentage of GDP - another factor that correlates far better with economic growth than does exchange rate.
Smukesh Farage clearly fancies himself as the British Stephen Harper, who came from REFORM, the Canadian UKIP, to reunite the Canadian right and become PM. Although Harper is now trailing Trudeau's Liberals badly in the polls
Interesting that Labour may struggle to take Crewe and Nantwich, Labour held that seat with a 16% majority in 2005.
Sorry, I must be looking at a different graph - that's a solid 12.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which isn't too shabby and converts the 2010 result to something more akin to 2005:
Doing that nationally would mean a swing of only 5.5% so some suggestion that Labour may be doing better where they need to in the marginals where they face the Conservatives.but far more research is needed.
Interesting that Labour may struggle to take Crewe and Nantwich, Labour held that seat with a 16% majority in 2005.
Sorry, I must be looking at a different graph - that's a solid 12.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which isn't too shabby and converts the 2010 result to something more akin to 2005:
Doing that nationally would mean a swing of only 5.5% so some suggestion that Labour may be doing better where they need to in the marginals where they face the Conservatives.but far more research is needed.
Yeah, I totally misread the graph.
I'm off to exile myself to con home for my mistake.
Smukesh Farage clearly fancies himself as the British Stephen Harper, who came from REFORM, the Canadian UKIP, to reunite the Canadian right and become PM. Although Harper is now trailing Trudeau's Liberals badly in the polls
He`s got to cross the hurdle of winning his own seat first in 2015.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 10m I clocked @Nigel_Farage w Tory MP Graham Evans tonite in Commons, thought 'no, that can't be a Tory MP w/ UKIP leader.' I was wrong. It was.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 10m I clocked @Nigel_Farage w Tory MP Graham Evans tonite in Commons, thought 'no, that can't be a Tory MP w/ UKIP leader.' I was wrong. It was.
Does Cammo in Kabul know?
Graham Evans` majority in the NorthWest is less than a thousand votes.
Presumably the Ukip strategy is to now love bomb Labour voters "only Ukip can keep the Tories out here". Bizarrely irrational, politically, but it might work. Such is many Labourites' love at defeating the Tories. Hmm.
Interesting that Labour may struggle to take Crewe and Nantwich, Labour held that seat with a 16% majority in 2005.
Sorry, I must be looking at a different graph - that's a solid 12.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which isn't too shabby and converts the 2010 result to something more akin to 2005:
Doing that nationally would mean a swing of only 5.5% so some suggestion that Labour may be doing better where they need to in the marginals where they face the Conservatives.but far more research is needed.
Yeah, I totally misread the graph.
I'm off to exile myself to con home for my mistake.
I spent a couple of weeks there when you exiled me a few weeks back. It's not all that bad - you get a sort of Stockholm Syndrome after a while.
If they can only get 28% in their top target seats in mid-term, then they've got no chance of winning any seats in the GE. The UKIP bubble is already deflating and will pop before 2015.
tim - if you are reading, when you come back for goodness sake, please tip West Ham for the match on Wednesday.
Fed up and don't want any of the names being touted as next manager. Give the job to Gareth Bale as player/manager - pretty much his role last year anyway!
Interesting that Labour may struggle to take Crewe and Nantwich, Labour held that seat with a 16% majority in 2005.
Sorry, I must be looking at a different graph - that's a solid 12.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which isn't too shabby and converts the 2010 result to something more akin to 2005:
Doing that nationally would mean a swing of only 5.5% so some suggestion that Labour may be doing better where they need to in the marginals where they face the Conservatives.but far more research is needed.
Yeah, I totally misread the graph.
I'm off to exile myself to con home for my mistake.
Don't sweat it, Mr Eagles - most people are mostly wrong on here most of the time (myself included).
I think the Crewe polling figures are very significant. What we don't know is the churn in those numbers. It looks like a straight switch from Conservative to Labour which is probably only part of the story but that would be the real problem for the Conservatives. The potential damage of a significant direct shift from them to labour (rather than to UKIP) in the marginals is considerable.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 10m I clocked @Nigel_Farage w Tory MP Graham Evans tonite in Commons, thought 'no, that can't be a Tory MP w/ UKIP leader.' I was wrong. It was.
Does Cammo in Kabul know?
Graham Evans` majority in the NorthWest is less than a thousand votes.
If they can only get 28% in their top target seats in mid-term, then they've got no chance of winning any seats in the GE. The UKIP bubble is already deflating and will pop before 2015.
If they can only get 28% in their top target seats in mid-term, then they've got no chance of winning any seats in the GE. The UKIP bubble is already deflating and will pop before 2015.
Do you have any evidence for that or is it just a hunch? I only ask because I share your view but the numbers suggest I am wrong
The Labour voters of Hythe & Folkstone may have to commit an historical sacrifice.
You'd like the left to vote for the far-right in order to keep out the right? Politics is all just a big board game now to people like you isn't it? Of course it's not just the left that behave like this. It's a game played by all of the parties. Come on - you can be better than this.
No wonder an increasing number of people (myself now included) no longer feel any connection whatsoever to the political processes or parties. You're all too busy trying to get one up against each other that you've completely lost sight of the voters. Combs fighting over a bald man...
I really can't ever imagine voting again unless there are major changes in the attitudes of the political parties towards the people they claim to want to represent.
A few words of caution, Max. Deliberately devil's advocate to prompt a response.
No bank executive however senior has the power (nor should have the power) to offer employment to an individual met for the first time outside the bank in a purely social environment. This doesn't mean that the offer isn't genuine just that it will be "subject to contract" and you will almost certainly need to go through a formal interview and assessment process both at line management and HR levels before any offer can be formalised. Treat the offer as an invitation "to come in for a chat" at this stage.
A good analyst will first do his own analysis of any job offer and employer first. By asking for advice here you are doing that, but try to meet analysts of your age and proposed seniority first. Generally an analyst will work shorter hours than, say, those in corporate finance or in trading divisions, but there is a clear relationship between reward and effort and you are likely to be sucked into a hot house competitive culture if you want to progress.
Large organisations rarely thank those that commit to their success. And banks are amongst the worst offenders. Take a job on your terms only: i.e. if it makes sense to you at the time. Don't expect more from your employer and certainly don't fall for any of the paternalistic career path and lifetime support crap pedalled by HR executives. The City pays high so it is free to hire and fire. And there are few fifty year old equity analysts taking the tube into the City in the morning.
Are you a big company man or do you prefer the relationships and freedoms involved in working in a smaller more personal unit? Most of the friends I knew who started in equity analysis at large city institutions are now working for themselves doing something completely different (setting up a vineyard for example). Some have migrated to hedge funds where they are partners in much smaller units. Only one or two have survived the original corporate jungle and have become senior executives (one to be fair is not yet 50).
My final word is to go into any offer with your eyes open and your expectations real. Don't focus only on the money, or if you do, fix only on the short term and keep your options open for the future.
All said, go for it if the job offer is genuine and you think that there is a fit between your needs and the opportunity. Working in the City is an unquestioned opportunity to accelerate your climb up the money tree.
Thanks for the time ALP.
Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.
He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...
If they can only get 28% in their top target seats in mid-term, then they've got no chance of winning any seats in the GE. The UKIP bubble is already deflating and will pop before 2015.
The most sensible post of the evening . Bognor Regis/Littlehampton was one of the seats UKIP "won" at the CC elections in May .
Mr. Eagles, I believe Gustavus Adolphus was a Swedish chap. TA Dodge wrote a bio/history of his wars. Keep meaning to find it.
Annoyingly some new versions of Dodge's histories have been released and they're enormously abridged (but don't say so). That kind of thing really pisses me off.
Hmmm. This sounds a little too silly to be the full story. Did he actually say it, was it a pre-written statement or was it a response to a question?
It was in response to a question. fro the Guardian report:
"Asked whether they were coming home with mission accomplished, Cameron said: "Yes I think they do. I think they can come home with their heads held high. You know, we will not leave behind a perfect country or a perfect democracy."
So the media set him up with the mission accomplished words, wanting the parallel with Bush the Younger, but he didn't say it himself.
So if someone is asked: "Did you steal that watch from Mrs Smith" And they respond: "Yes, I did." Your belief is that the person is not admitting to theft but has been set up?
Southam, that is one of your most daft posts ever.
Comments
Lucky I'm not writing the thread on these polls.
Catherine the Great was also renowned for her love of horses. She, like Dave, enjoyed a "fast, unpredictable ride".
If you look at economies over time, the biggest determinant of economic growth is demographics; the second is labour market flexibility, and the third is the government spending as a percentage of GDP. The exchange rate is, believe it or not, a fairly minor factor.
However, you are right that the Eurozone was a major contributory factor behind the problems suffered by the periphery. The governments and people of Greece in particular, but to a certain extent the rest, saw interest rates fall following the introduction of the Eurozone, and this led to a borrowing binge. The economies of the periphery became dangerously unbalanced. (Of course, it is worth noting that Spain's building boom had already started, but the Euro was like throwing petrol onto a fire.)
But whichever way you want to spin it, the countries of the periphery are no longer living beyond their means. This has been appalling painful. But the fact that wages are lower, and labour market flexibility means they are now the ones attracting external investment.
Take Spain (the country which has done the most, and where the improvements are most obvious), Nissan is investing in a plant outside Barcelona to build its new 'Golf Killer'. Volkswagen now makes pretty much all its small car engines in Spain. These are long-cycle investments that will pay off in a growing Spanish automotive industry over the next decade.
Your argument seems to be: because of an exchange rate their can't control, Spain will not reap the benefits of structural reform. But this ignores the fact that in the days of Bretton-Woods (when countries couldn't control their currencies) labour market reform led, just as it does today, to structurally higher rates of growth.
I suspect the next seven years will see Germany (where the presence of the SPD in the coalition is going to push up labour costs and limit flexibility) fall behind, and Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Portugal push ahead.
You are going against the lessons of every other labour market liberalisation if you think otherwise, by allowing a factor which has historically had very little correlation with growth to dominate your view. And you are also choosing to ignore the fact that all the periphery have structurally cut government spending as a percentage of GDP - another factor that correlates far better with economic growth than does exchange rate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crewe_and_Nantwich_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Doing that nationally would mean a swing of only 5.5% so some suggestion that Labour may be doing better where they need to in the marginals where they face the Conservatives.but far more research is needed.
I'm off to exile myself to con home for my mistake.
He is a man of the purple.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 10m
I clocked @Nigel_Farage w Tory MP Graham Evans tonite in Commons, thought 'no, that can't be a Tory MP w/ UKIP leader.' I was wrong. It was.
Does Cammo in Kabul know?
I am sure they were just discussing the cricket.
Fed up and don't want any of the names being touted as next manager. Give the job to Gareth Bale as player/manager - pretty much his role last year anyway!
Stockholm is in Sweden, and Abba are from Sweden.
I think the Crewe polling figures are very significant. What we don't know is the churn in those numbers. It looks like a straight switch from Conservative to Labour which is probably only part of the story but that would be the real problem for the Conservatives. The potential damage of a significant direct shift from them to labour (rather than to UKIP) in the marginals is considerable.
No wonder an increasing number of people (myself now included) no longer feel any connection whatsoever to the political processes or parties. You're all too busy trying to get one up against each other that you've completely lost sight of the voters. Combs fighting over a bald man...
I really can't ever imagine voting again unless there are major changes in the attitudes of the political parties towards the people they claim to want to represent.
Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.
He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...
Mr. Eagles, I believe Gustavus Adolphus was a Swedish chap. TA Dodge wrote a bio/history of his wars. Keep meaning to find it.
Annoyingly some new versions of Dodge's histories have been released and they're enormously abridged (but don't say so). That kind of thing really pisses me off.