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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the measles outbreak continues YouGov finds that UKIP vo

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    tim said:

    @Sam

    Looks like the US authorities did their job.
    Socrates implies particular religious or racial groups have a greater tendency to domestic violence, has he any evidence?
    We shall no doubt see if he backs it up.

    Come on tim, Socrates said no such thing. As for implications; look to thyself.

    Thanks Mike, but there's no point in urging tim to be reasonable. He knows full well I didn't post such an implication - I clearly said "if" in my final statement, for instance - but his purpose isn't to have an honest argument. It's to smear those he dislikes. Even when caught red-handed he won't admit to his mistakes. I'm happy to have an amicable discussion with anyone on here, nationalist or unionist, far left to far right, but there's simply no point with tim, as he isn't interested in having an intellectually honest debate. He's out to insult, distort and lie about people. Thus I've decided not to engage with him at all. I encourage others to do the same. That way we can divert the oxygen to the more pleasant posters.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Socrates said:

    This is an interesting exchange from the father of the alleged Boston bombers:

    Q Did he want to be an American citizen?

    A. He wanted to, of course. Why not?

    Q. But it didn’t work out, right?

    A. Because with his girlfriend, there was a scandal. He hit her lightly. He was locked up for half an hour. There was jealousy there. He paid $250, that was it, he went home. Because of that — in America you can’t touch a woman, they wouldn’t give him citizenship.

    A. Because of that they didn’t give him citizenship?

    Q. He had gone through the interview, that was it. But they said, he said, they will check the federal authorities, when they check me they will give it. He would have been granted it, he passed the interview. Now we have a new system where they check young people. Because he is a Muslim, I think, and a Chechen, too.


    http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/updates-on-aftermath-of-boston-marathon-explosions-2/

    That's right. Tsarnaev believes it's Islamophobic to deny citizenship to someone because they're a wife-beater. Rather reminiscent of certain posters on here, who cry "bigotry" towards any criticism of people that are Muslims. In reality, this is the sort of viewpoint among Muslim immigrants we need to stamp out. And also not let more in with similar views.

    We should not discriminate against any religion in immigration policy, but we should certainly discriminate against views that contradict Western beliefs in democracy, equal rights and human liberty. If such a policy hits one religious group harder, so be it.

    There is a paucity of sound epidemiological evidence because of differences in methodology and definition.

    The WHO has a report here, but the only majority Muslim country in it is Bangladesh.

    http://www.who.int/gender/violence/who_multicountry_study/en/

    So the short answer is that we have no sound evidence, but that is not evidence of no difference.

    Certainly I have seen enough domestic violence victims of all ethnicities to last me a lifetime.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    More family background on the alleged Boston bombers:

    http://alyssalindley.tumblr.com/tagged/boston-bombing

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    tim said:
    59 respondents! - progress!

    Margin of error only 11%

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    Labours answer to the debt problem they created is more debt. Mind you the Tories are playing along as well. Should blow up nicely in a couple of years, hopefully when Labour are back in power.

    What would "blowing up nicely" entail? How high are you predicting UK bond yields will go?
    At the risk of sounding economically perverse: nice and high at about 5% please for a 15 yr gilt. That should sort out most pension defecits and counteract 16 years of dividend pension tax :-)
    So the debt problem "blowing up" means bond yields reverting to their 1997 to 2005 average? I'm sceptical, but even if it happened, it doesn't sound like much of a crisis. I'd quite happily take that to get people back to work.
    Sorry I accidentally pressed " off topic" and I have no idea how to delete it.
    I think if you press another icon 'like' or 'agree' that will change your first response.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,099
    New poll on whether voters are comfortable with an ethnic minority PM
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/doreen-lawrence
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    Labours answer to the debt problem they created is more debt. Mind you the Tories are playing along as well. Should blow up nicely in a couple of years, hopefully when Labour are back in power.

    What would "blowing up nicely" entail? How high are you predicting UK bond yields will go?
    At the risk of sounding economically perverse: nice and high at about 5% please for a 15 yr gilt. That should sort out most pension defecits and counteract 16 years of dividend pension tax :-)
    So the debt problem "blowing up" means bond yields reverting to their 1997 to 2005 average? I'm sceptical, but even if it happened, it doesn't sound like much of a crisis. I'd quite happily take that to get people back to work.
    Sorry I accidentally pressed " off topic" and I have no idea how to delete it. All thumbs today I am.

    My gilt comment was more if a heartfelt plea than a forecast :-)
    The total cost of servicing UK debt is critical when considering gilt yields,.

    In 2012 the UK paid £43 bn in interest payments to finance its debt. This is roughly 3% of GDP and larger then the entire Ministry of Defence budget. It represents about £15,000 per household or £33,000 per person in employment.

    If gilt yields were to rise to 5% the cost of debt servicing would become unsustainable.

    Gilt yields could and should rise when the structural deficit is eliminated and the government is not running a £120 bn a year overspend.

    [Quick figures lazily culled from Wikipedia]
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    O/t:

    Ex-paratrooper Mike Ellicock was attempting to run today's London Marathon with a 40-lb rucksack on his back in a record time of 3hr 20 m.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-22222604

    Well, he was slightly slower (3hr 25), but still smashed the record. An amazing achievement.

    (On a personal note, 40-lb is about the heaviest my rucksack gets on a multi-day unsupported hike. I can do 27-30 mile days with it, but it can take me about 12 hours, albeit over rougher terrain. I can't imagine running with it. I bet he got through a lot of Vaseline...)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,099
    edited April 2013
    Bulgarian ambassador attacks UKIP
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22238575UKIP
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322



    There is a paucity of sound epidemiological evidence because of differences in methodology and definition.

    The WHO has a report here, but the only majority Muslim country in it is Bangladesh.

    http://www.who.int/gender/violence/who_multicountry_study/en/

    So the short answer is that we have no sound evidence, but that is not evidence of no difference.

    Certainly I have seen enough domestic violence victims of all ethnicities to last me a lifetime.

    But why haven't there been any studies in the UK context? If we wish to combat violence against women, one of the most important methods has to be identifying at-risk groups. The US, sensibly, investigates this with academic studies, and then campaign groups disseminate the information. They have revealed there can be huge differences between ethnic groups.

    Yet in the UK there's a total dearth of investigation here. It's not hard to guess the reason: it could come up with uncomfortable answers, and, as an academic, you'd come in for a huge amount of opprobrium from the usual suspects. Better to stay clear of it. It's the same reason the policy wouldn't investigate a certain mass crime wave for years on end and, even now, the major media outlets relegate such crimes to local news. It's a screwed up mindset that puts calling people bigots above doing what's best for past and future victims.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    HYUFD said:

    New poll on whether voters are comfortable with an ethnic minority PM
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/doreen-lawrence

    Yes: 68
    No: 13
    DK: 18

    It will be interesting to see breakdowns (not up yet):

    http://britainthinks.com/news
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    David Frum is doing some great reporting on the US immigration bill:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/17/this-immigration-reform-is-a-dud.html

    Most shocking is the fact that e-verify, a system to prevent businesses employing illegal immigrants, and a system to monitor people overstaying their visas, won't be implemented for ten years!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    HYUFD said:
    Is there any academic research published on which country's ambassadors are most aggressive?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    HYUFD said:

    New poll on whether voters are comfortable with an ethnic minority PM
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/doreen-lawrence

    Yes: 68
    No: 13
    DK: 18

    It will be interesting to see breakdowns (not up yet):

    http://britainthinks.com/news
    It's a ray of light for Ed Miliband in a week of unrelenting gloom.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    AveryLP said:

    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    welshowl said:

    Socrates said:

    Labours answer to the debt problem they created is more debt. Mind you the Tories are playing along as well. Should blow up nicely in a couple of years, hopefully when Labour are back in power.

    What would "blowing up nicely" entail? How high are you predicting UK bond yields will go?
    At the risk of sounding economically perverse: nice and high at about 5% please for a 15 yr gilt. That should sort out most pension defecits and counteract 16 years of dividend pension tax :-)
    So the debt problem "blowing up" means bond yields reverting to their 1997 to 2005 average? I'm sceptical, but even if it happened, it doesn't sound like much of a crisis. I'd quite happily take that to get people back to work.
    Sorry I accidentally pressed " off topic" and I have no idea how to delete it. All thumbs today I am.

    My gilt comment was more if a heartfelt plea than a forecast :-)
    The total cost of servicing UK debt is critical when considering gilt yields,.

    In 2012 the UK paid £43 bn in interest payments to finance its debt. This is roughly 3% of GDP and larger then the entire Ministry of Defence budget. It represents about £15,000 per household or £33,000 per person in employment.

    If gilt yields were to rise to 5% the cost of debt servicing would become unsustainable.

    Gilt yields could and should rise when the structural deficit is eliminated and the government is not running a £120 bn a year overspend.

    [Quick figures lazily culled from Wikipedia]
    I don't doubt the figures for a moment.

    It's still an injustice though when govts ( whatever stripe) run up debts, and then via another agency ( the BoE) print money and thereby distort the market, thereby making the blameless and virtuous souls with savings/pension schemes whatever effectively pay for it all.

    The truth is we should collectively have had the punch bowl taken away well before we racked up personal debt on the level we did as 63 million individuals, however, as the govt of the time was benefitting from all this froth by creaming fat taxes off the top to pay for more spending ( some of which was bad but not all of course) they weren't going to do anything of the kind even though it was bleedin obvious the economy was only growing due to an unsustainable ( in the long run) sea of red ink.

    Still to be fair to Gord if Blair had had his way we would've been in the Euro and would now be Ireland x 15, so credit where credit is due.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,099
    Carlotta - Indeed

    Avery LP - Not as far as I'm aware but the ambassador of Kazakhstan was certainly pretty voal over Borat
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    HYUFD said:

    Carlotta - Indeed

    Avery LP - Not as far as I'm aware but the ambassador of Kazakhstan was certainly pretty voal over Borat

    The Czech ambassador to the US has just complained to State Department that many US citizens mistakenly thought Chechens came from the Czech Republic.

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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Socrates said:

    What would "blowing up nicely" entail? How high are you predicting UK bond yields will go?

    Higher than where they are currently. We can look to Europe to see how quickly bond yields can go up in the last few years.

    http://www.worldeconomics.com/Spotlight/10YearGovernmentBondYields.efp
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    HYUFD said:

    New poll on whether voters are comfortable with an ethnic minority PM
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/doreen-lawrence

    Yes: 68
    No: 13
    DK: 18

    It will be interesting to see breakdowns (not up yet):

    http://britainthinks.com/news
    Don't get me wrong, it's a really interesting set of figures, but it doesn't necessarily tell you about the electability of ethnic minority party leaders: it's about what you say when asked. This is, as I recall in the case of racism in other forms, a leading indicator of actual acceptance.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carlotta - Indeed

    Avery LP - Not as far as I'm aware but the ambassador of Kazakhstan was certainly pretty voal over Borat

    The Czech ambassador to the US has just complained to State Department that many US citizens mistakenly thought Chechens came from the Czech Republic.

    Just imagine how tiresome the Scottish ambassador to Washington would be if Eck gets his independence.

    Most Americans think the Scots live in England.

    Great to see you back. We've been missing you!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Interesting piece from the brothers uncle on why they bombed the marathon:

    Tsarni called on his nephew to turn himself in. When asked why the suspects may have committed what Ruslan described as “an atrocity,” he said simply it was because they were losers.

    “Being losers, hatred to those who were able to settle themselves; those are the only reasons,” he said. “Anything else to do with religion, with Islam, it’s a fraud; it’s a fake.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/04/19/bombing-suspects-uncle-says-hes-shocked/

    I think that there is much to his assessment, in that those who are unable to accept the values of a democracy because of upbringing risk drifting first to alienation, then to violence.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carlotta - Indeed

    Avery LP - Not as far as I'm aware but the ambassador of Kazakhstan was certainly pretty voal over Borat

    The Czech ambassador to the US has just complained to State Department that many US citizens mistakenly thought Chechens came from the Czech Republic.

    Indeed:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/boston-marathon-bombings-czech-republics-ambassador-concerned-by-americans-confusing-his-country-with-chechnya-8581341.html

    "Boston Marathon bombings: Czech Republic's ambassador 'concerned' by Americans confusing his country with Chechnya
    Many tweets apparently confused the two countries, which are around 1,700 miles apart"

    During the first Iraq war a Californian colleague in England was woken up in the middle of the night by friends telephoning from back home wanting to know if 'she was going to leave and could hear the bombing?'

    Americans aren't cowards - they sometimes just have a spectacularly poor sense of geography....
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    What would "blowing up nicely" entail? How high are you predicting UK bond yields will go?

    Higher than where they are currently. We can look to Europe to see how quickly bond yields can go up in the last few years.

    http://www.worldeconomics.com/Spotlight/10YearGovernmentBondYields.efp
    Most European countries don't have their own currency. That makes a world of difference.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Korea: Kim may feel the need to pretend he's crazy again. Two missile launchers moved to the coast.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    tim said:

    I doubt skin colour is really the defining issue here that you are trying to make it out to be.

    A friend once wisely observed that in the US, race trumps class.

    In the UK, its the other way round.

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    PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 661
    new thread
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    tim said:

    I doubt skin colour is really the defining issue here that you are trying to make it out to be.

    A friend once wisely observed that in the US, race trumps class.

    In the UK, its the other way round.

    It might trump class, but it is evidently still relevant. The study tim linked to showed that Pakistani women are 26% more likely than black women to be domestically assaulted, for instance. White women are similarly at risk. Of course, that research was almost 20 years old, but it seems campaign groups are not doing their job properly if they're pretending this isn't the case.
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