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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report
Unlike all the other pollsters that have reported this week tonight’s online surveys from Opinium for the Observer and ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror have the LAB lead steady or up a notch.
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Mark Wallace @wallaceme 5m
@Andrew_ComRes @johnrentoul Indie reporting UKIP 18% and LD 8%, but ComRes table says other way round
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_15th_December_2013.pdf … who's right?
Edit:
Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation 6m
@wallaceme if you look at the 2010 vote cross-breaks for clues, it just looks like a table label fail...
That's the way to do it.
@Geoff
Good man - I admire your positivity.
You know the Aussies are a confidence team. Our job is to bring back the old doubts.
I won't back my words with cash but I will be setting the alarm.
See you both on PB later.
Don't tell me who's out TSE.
2-1 to the good guys please....
Hammersmith: Charlie Dewhirst (local Cllr)
Kingston & Surbiton: James Berry
Although I suppose they will take it going into the holidays.
I promise no spoilers ever again.
- around the edge of the big cities
- around the edge of the towns with the most grooming gangs
- south and east coast towns
so depending on where the samples were taken i don't think it's that surprising if the Ukip score wobbles a fair bit.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2513653/Sexual-violence-gang-neighbourhoods-like-war-zones-girls-young-11-groomed-raped.html
"Britain's worst gang hit neighbourhoods are seeing levels of sexual violence as bad as in war zones, it was claimed today."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-probe-least-54-more-1896991
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2513653/Sexual-violence-gang-neighbourhoods-like-war-zones-girls-young-11-groomed-raped.html
"Britain's worst gang hit neighbourhoods are seeing levels of sexual violence as bad as in war zones, it was claimed today."
twitter.com/neilmatthews1/status/411884300272173056
https://twitter.com/LynneBeaumont
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2513653/Sexual-violence-gang-neighbourhoods-like-war-zones-girls-young-11-groomed-raped.html
"Britain's worst gang hit neighbourhoods are seeing levels of sexual violence as bad as in war zones, it was claimed today."
If it were Brit pensioners going to Bulgaria and Romania or mass immigration was from France and Spain there would be much less of a problem
What does the 'mass' in mass immigration mean?
Think of the difference between "immigration, and "mass immigration"
The arrival of a large number of people from any country or set of countries in a short time is more of a tester. I can't see that a cap can be imposed as we signed up long ago. It's not unreasonable to look at options though if there is any genuine worry over what sharp influxes might produce.
You've cracked that unfunny joke a dozen times and no ones acknowledged it... I wonder why?
But try again... What do you think the difference between mass immigration and immigration is?
I was sure he'd get there eventually when the automated unfunnys ran out
Ominium has provided the answer
No wonder you struggle if you didn't know that one
Big spread on your french estimate
Are there more french or more Eastern Europeans in London
I'll go 1/100 French
And 1/100 Eastern European
Imagine a little area containing say 100 young males aged 12-24 and 100 young females aged 12-24. Forget everything else about race, culture, ethnicity, whatever and just imagine what happens if you then add another 100 males aged 18-24 into that area in a short space of time?
What most normal people would imagine would happen is exactly what does happen.
supply and demand
(At least it's what happens at the rougher end of the spectrum.)
SeanT:
Your Choudary fella and his mates seem to wish to tell us that Allah is to be feared. If he's so fearsome why on earth does he need people banging on about it. If there is an Allah then he's clearly not that worried himself about being feared, and I suspect he must greatly wonder at the activities of the numpties that suggest so.
Of course we all know that there isn't an Allah, and we also all know that Choudary's activities are at best self-aggrandisement. The sooner he, and the Archbishop of Canterbury are locked away (preferably together) the better we'll all be.
Get on Di Matteo as next Albion boss
Not when there are plenty of them, the evidence is there in a generation of successful 60 somethings from poor backgrounds
I've recently had some building work going on outside my flat. The workers were mostly Polish, but they acted almost in an English way amongst themselves - actually a nicer and more 'English' crowd than the average team of British born builders.
We as a nation are far, far better in principle than we are in practice. If it takes immigrants to remind us of how we ought to behave then good for them.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2523680/How-Britain-iPhone-technology-Apple-Quango-handed-advantage-competition.html
Great advert for civil servants and the state picking winners. Back to the stone age with Ed M and the white heat of technology of cup cakes.
They accept it as normal because it's become normal after 30 years of being ignored by the BBC and the political class. For example, imagine a girl on one of the hell estates where this is normal watching the recent BBC reporting on the gang-rape in India or Hague swanning off with Angelina Jolie. The BBC and political class have basically been telling girls on those estates to shut up and bleed quietly for years - so they accept the only alternative they have which is be "popular" or be hurt. That's their normal.
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/dec/14/ofsted-chief-war-grammar-schools
& who said move they out from London?
One of the reports you loved to quote from (until some of us actually went and read it and found out you had been misrepresenting it) showed that selective schools had no measurable impact on the non selective schools in the same area when compared to those areas without selection.
The report also showed that there was a small but measurable improvement in the results at selective schools compared to the non selective and that, as a result, the overall effect was to provide a small improvement overall in educational standards in an area but without any adverse effects on the non selective schools.
Even Wilshaw seems to be unable to understand basic logic as he claims that the 'middle classes' represent the top 10% of the population. Not sure if he went to a grammar school but clearly his education was somewhat lacking.
However, why should we only seek advantage for a few. Education is about setting you free from morinity and mediocrity. I have personal experience of how a comprehensive school can free the bright and corrall the disruptive, whilst allowing the chance for all to progress. Grammar Schools by definition means lesser education for the majority and that I can't support. We need all schools to achieve a set level of attainment - why would we accept less?
My point though Tim was that all of this is about ensuring that the rich kids get into the elite bracket. I was a poor kid, but had such good grades that I did well later on - if I had the top grades now then I'd be in a much bigger pool and almost all of that pool would perhaps do better at interviews than my 18yo self for example.
Exams are good, but they have to be bloody hard.
(I probably should say that I'm mainly thinking about maths when I say all this, and that other subjects might not be so binary)
The PISA lists and the way we have plummeted through them is an indictment of Labour education policy and has nothing to do with selective or non selective education. It is worth noting that both Australia and Germany which have selective systems to some degree (and certainly more than the UK) are both substantially higher in the PISA tables than we are.
Sorry to see you have a nasty case of the 'Tim's' - I've been there a couple of times myself, although currently he and I are on better terms (I think).
Anyway, by way of scant consolation I'd like to buy and read one of your books - just as I've seen you mention them.
If you'd care to point me at a good starting point therefore it'd be much appreciated.
Abolishing them punished poor people and helped the rich, that's all there is to it
Have you worked out the difference between mass immigration and immigration yet?
100 rich kids, 100 poor kids. Some proper test or other. If you set a bar at 99% none will get there. At 75% perhaps 4/1. At 60% perhaps 40/6.
So if this were to be true then a higher proportion of the places for academic success in life would fall to the rich.
Look at yourself Tim - PB.com gives you a way to stand out. If you had to take your turn with 428 other A graders for posting it'd be a quitter life.
By the way, where is Ave it ? WE need to know more about Watford.
UKIP ain't going away. It is gnawing away at the Tories !
As you appear to never learn, we have revoked your posting privileges. We will consider restoring them in a few days.
'EIGHT people read your blog between your debut in early 2010, and late 2011, when you stopped blogging in despair. I thought it was ZERO, but it was EIGHT.
http://web.archive.org/web/20100315000000*/http://politicalfretting.com'
How did you come up with such an original name?
DavidL posted this on yesterday evening's thread. 'Gosh it is quiet on here tonight.'
Bing Crosby - It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcZAwoip5aY
If you look at Japan you will see that whilst the education system is comprehensive, one of the main reasons given for their improvement is the fact that large numbers of parents pay for extra tuition after schools and during holidays known as 'juku'. Again this is something you have attacked and derided on here.
I repeat, you are only interested in the lowest common denominator.
1. The 2014 budget. Budgets don't usually shift much.
2. The outcome of the hacking trial. No comment.
3. The Euro-election. Could be very important for deciding whether UKIP is taken seriously in 2015, and on internal Tory party discipline.
4. The 2014 Autumn Statement. See 1.
5. The 2015 budget. See 1, but it'll be an election budget, so maybe.
6. The election campaign. Election campaigns don't often shift much.
7. Black swans. A breakthrough in personal incomes? A big global or local economic wobble? Or, er...
I think 3, maybe 6 and of course 7 matter. Otherwise, can't see anything changing greatly. Why should it? IMO we're 16.5 months from Prime Minister Ed M.
In other news, Borgen is over (sob!) but The Bridge is back on January 4 (yay!).
2) Tim posted a particularly nasty comment about Plato, in violation of Mike Smithson's warnings to both of them not to do so, it was not his first infringement, he was previously warned not to do this on several occasions.
The comment has been deleted.
Will you lot all shut up already. You're all getting worse that Stuart Dickson.
On the last thread, there was a very interesting and (generally) informative discussion about the limits of non-state courts from a variety of posters from across the political spectrum, notably Sean_F, cyclefree, Nick Palmer, Neil, isam, and myself. I come on here, and it's a ridiculous slag-fest.
I do like the smack of firm government ....
Should you feel underemployed my "facilities" at Auchentennach Castle are always appreciative of special talents !!
Moderator has now squared the circle.
Did something happen to Plato's ability to post?
All clear?
I've called SeanT an old tart before but never a "slag" !!
Disgraceful .... I'll be having words with your father.
The secret is out.
'Why should it? IMO we're 16.5 months from Prime Minister Ed M.'
Definitely not complacent.
I, meanwhile, missing a work do due to a headcold that's held off until the weekend and is likely to clear up in time for Monday morning, have just watched 'Die Hard' for the 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000th time.
Relying on Yougov being good for the PB Hodges or it could be a subsection free zone tonight.
Free Plato, Free Tim.
The party plans a more substantial agenda when its requests are met!