Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
Has anyone found out which test the Swedes are using? I seem to recall some stuff from their scientists multiplying the result figure and saying that this represents x times the 7%.
I assume that the UK figure is using a Porton Down calibrated test - i.e. 17% for London is really 17%.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
You see the quacks pulling them out of glove dispensers one at a time.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
And, sadly, there's a very real chance that by the time of a second wave, those who have had it and developed antibodies may have had their immunity wear down or wear off. The four coronaviruses in the common cold all have immunity decay down or away over a period of months.
Hopefully this one, being more damaging, will generate longer lasting antibodies, though.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Ferguson HAS got some things obviously wrong. eg he predicted that Sweden would see an ever rising daily death rate (tho he might argue that this was when they were apparently having no lockdown at all)
However his worst case scenarios for the UK and US, without a lockdown, look quite reasonable now, given that the UK is on 60,000 excess deaths and the USA is heading north of 100,000, WITH a lockdown.
The Swedish measured 7.3% infection rate implies a Stockholm Infection fatality rate (using excess deaths) of 1.0%, which accords with Ferguson's model. He predicted a higher IFR for Stockholm than London due to an older demographic.
I am thinking Ferguson is doing well on the numbers, however ropey his software might be, and certainly better than his Swedish critics who predicted an IFR one tenth of his.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
I am not arguing for or against the Swedish approach or for or against continued lockdown here (although I would note that what works in Sweden might not work here, Swedes are highly socially minded and more trusting of authority than we are; they also have smaller average household size which naturally limits spread and a low population density outside of Stockholm). I am simply noting that the Swedish data are wholly consistent with the mainstream view of how the dynamics of infection operate. The economic hit in Sweden also looks quite sizeable, btw.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
the anti body test that came out with 7.3% was 6 weeks ago, more people will have had it in the mean time. There is always a question of accuracy in these things because of the need to do a blood test that some will object to. Maybe the number we need to have heard immunity is much lower than previously guest at.
I know the Iranian Coronavirus statistics are unreliable, through a combination of lack of administrative capacity and the regime's unwillingness to admit how badly the country has been affected, but there's been a rise in cases - perhaps coincident with Ramadan - that now looks like it is feeding through into more [announced] deaths.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
That's convenient. Head off a ravaging bout of deflation by printing lots of money - and as the icing on the cake magic away the gaping hole in the public finances.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
the anti body test that came out with 7.3% was 6 weeks ago, more people will have had it in the mean time. There is always a question of accuracy in these things because of the need to do a blood test that some will object to. Maybe the number we need to have heard immunity is much lower than previously guest at.
I doubt the numbers will be significantly higher. After all, social distancing was only just starting to be observed around that time. It's likely the majority of infections were before such measures were taken, and very unlikely that the true rate is anywhere near 60% (otherwise it would be blindingly obvious in the death statistics).
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
ETA or even anyone who has bought latex gloves in supermarkets. Is this a new test for people who employ cleaners?
121 new deaths in England. Last 3 days, 16 /61 / 27.
Was 186 this time last week.
UK All settings 351. So 230 "other settings" deaths compared to 121 England Hospital !
I believe that the two figures are not comparable and are over different timeframes, so you cannot take UK all settings and deduct Eng hospital to get 'other settings'. Even more so as even by that measure you are missing Welsh, Scottish and NI hospitals.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
I am not arguing for or against the Swedish approach or for or against continued lockdown here (although I would note that what works in Sweden might not work here, Swedes are highly socially minded and more trusting of authority than we are; they also have smaller average household size which naturally limits spread and a low population density outside of Stockholm). I am simply noting that the Swedish data are wholly consistent with the mainstream view of how the dynamics of infection operate. The economic hit in Sweden also looks quite sizeable, btw.
Exactly this. If we want to reduce deaths absent a vaccine, we need to socially distance. There are targeted ways to do this (Test, Trace and Quarantine) or brute force ways (lockdown), but the disease behaves in the same way whether in Sweden, UK or Korea, the country that has got this right so far.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
And, sadly, there's a very real chance that by the time of a second wave, those who have had it and developed antibodies may have had their immunity wear down or wear off. The four coronaviruses in the common cold all have immunity decay down or away over a period of months.
Hopefully this one, being more damaging, will generate longer lasting antibodies, though.
If the virus almost disappears around the world later this year, should we assume that it is a trick by the virus and a massive second wave is on its way soon?
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
That's convenient. Head off a ravaging bout of deflation by printing lots of money - and as the icing on the cake magic away the gaping hole in the public finances.
All is well in the best of all possible worlds!
More like we're in a burning plane but at least we have a parachute.
I know the Iranian Coronavirus statistics are unreliable, through a combination of lack of administrative capacity and the regime's unwillingness to admit how badly the country has been affected, but there's been a rise in cases - perhaps coincident with Ramadan - that now looks like it is feeding through into more [announced] deaths.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
I am not arguing for or against the Swedish approach or for or against continued lockdown here (although I would note that what works in Sweden might not work here, Swedes are highly socially minded and more trusting of authority than we are; they also have smaller average household size which naturally limits spread and a low population density outside of Stockholm). I am simply noting that the Swedish data are wholly consistent with the mainstream view of how the dynamics of infection operate. The economic hit in Sweden also looks quite sizeable, btw.
Ok, sorry, if I came across to confrontational there,
Swedes are more trusting of government advice, yes, but that is in part because there government trust them, and trust is a two way thing.
Sweden has taken a big economic hit, yes, some of that was inevitable and lot is because Sweden is a big trading nation affected by her trading partners. still I am confadantly predicting that government borrowing, unemployment, loss of GDP and so on will still be smaller than most if not all Western European nations
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...
Perhaps 'Joe was a only tit man' to the strains of Loudon Wainwright's no-longer-quite-appropriate ditty.
lol - very good - is that slightly taking the piss out of His Bobness?
Shouldn't be surprised, Loudon's a spikey kinda dude, but affectionate I'd hope. He was one of a thousand budding singer/songwriter burdened with the description 'the new Dylan' so maybe it made him a little jaundiced.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
This is my last post on this because, frankly, life's too short.
The graphic shows that deaths in Sweden are dropping all the time, and yet eyebrows were raised when it was revealed Stockholm only had a 7% antibody show rate, much lower than London.
Why? The Oxford explanation seems to be highly plausible to me.
It's dropping because they have implemented social distancing. It's dropping slowly because they have been less stringent than others. Antibodies are low because most people haven't had it. That all seems like a consistent and plausible explanation to me.
Of all Nations with a population over 10 million
Sweden only 6th worst in the world in terms deaths per million population (and unlikely to rise higher than 5th)
UK currently 4th worst on same measure (likely to go 3rd in next few days and 2nd by this time next month)
Belgium top on that measure but i read they measure all suspected not confirmed throughout whole Community
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
That's convenient. Head off a ravaging bout of deflation by printing lots of money - and as the icing on the cake magic away the gaping hole in the public finances.
All is well in the best of all possible worlds!
More like we're in a burning plane but at least we have a parachute.
That's more like it. There must be pain. If there's no pain it's a con or a dream.
Annemarie Plas, cited as the person who helped start the weekly clap for carers initiative in the UK, suggests next Thursday's celebration should be the last.
Speaking on Radio Two's Jeremy Vine show, she said: "Next week will be the tenth time and I think that that would be a beautiful end to the series.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
What economic data suggests that the economy will recover faster with a wild virus killing many people that leaves people terrified and at home of their own free choice?
What economic data suggests that defeating this virus and getting back to normal will be economically worse than letting the virus run wild?
Oxford contend the virus isn;t generally wild. Its very selectively wild.
They base that on their observations of its behaviour in many countries. In every case it is exactly the same. Rise, peak, pass through. Regardless of government action.
Why? it can only be because there is a large group who don't have antibodies but are nevertheless immune.
That's not the only reason.
The alternative reason is that in every case there's been a massive lockdown and social distancing implemented. Whether it be an official government mandated one, or an unofficial one where people act rationally in locking down manually.
If there's going to be a lockdown either way (hint: there will be) then it should be for the shortest duration. Which means we all do it until the virus is contained then we can all get back to normal.
The alternative is the official lockdown ends, people don't go back to normal because its still wild and the economy is devastated while people are dying still.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
He can send a symbolic message by meeting him in person, like MPs are sending a message by ending remote working.
Exactly. As the medical emergency reduces, the financial one is starting to show.
We need confidence. I might not have been sure Boris was the one to lead a medical emergency, but I suspect he is the perfect one to bring confidence on getting the economy going.
Expect to see Boris in a factory, Boris eating an ice-cream, Boris pulling a pint. It will be like an election without the voting.
I don't think Sturgeon has done well at all in this crisis. If people talk of a lack of talent in the Conservatives, they are clearly ignoring the huge black hole that is behind Sturgeon. However, like Boris, she is capable of going out and bringing confidence to a certain section of the country and that will be vital for Scotland. People will follow her.
I fear for Wales. I can't imagine Drakeford inspiring confidence in anyone. I am not sure there is any Welsh politician at the moment who does that. That will also have to be Boris.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
Boris can safely shake hands....
I forgot, Boris is immune
Are we sure that Boris in non-infectious?
He could indeed be a typhoid mary.
If any thriller writers were to frequent this place I would point out that the time is ripe for a whodunnit in which someone intentionally contracts the virus by, let's say, licking the doors of Tube trains, and then visits an elderly relative from whom they hope to inherit. This would be legally murder but almost certainly unprovable.
The hypothetical thriller writer may tend to identify too much with the elderly relative and be reduced to a quivering, fear-filled jelly, unable to connect with his muse.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
He can send a symbolic message by meeting him in person, like MPs are sending a message by ending remote working.
My concern is whether it is sending the correct message.
The guidance is to continue to work from home if you can. Politicians largely can, and the best message to convey would be that they are doing so effectively.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
That's convenient. Head off a ravaging bout of deflation by printing lots of money - and as the icing on the cake magic away the gaping hole in the public finances.
All is well in the best of all possible worlds!
More like we're in a burning plane but at least we have a parachute.
Surely you mean two.
Hancock says you need to count the main and reserve chutes.
So presumably thats a relief if there are 2 of you in a burning plane
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
And, sadly, there's a very real chance that by the time of a second wave, those who have had it and developed antibodies may have had their immunity wear down or wear off. The four coronaviruses in the common cold all have immunity decay down or away over a period of months.
Hopefully this one, being more damaging, will generate longer lasting antibodies, though.
If the virus almost disappears around the world later this year, should we assume that it is a trick by the virus and a massive second wave is on its way soon?
If it all but vanishes, I reckon we could prevent a second wave with rapid testing in place. Have random sampling, especially at airports, and clamp down the moment it pops up. Could do a New Zealand or a South Korea worldwide.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
That's convenient. Head off a ravaging bout of deflation by printing lots of money - and as the icing on the cake magic away the gaping hole in the public finances.
All is well in the best of all possible worlds!
More like we're in a burning plane but at least we have a parachute.
Surely you mean two.
Hancock says you need to count the main and reserve chutes.
So presumably thats a relief if there are 2 of you in a burning plane
That would be a relief. Especially if one of you is a tandem diving instructor.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
What does judgement mean? It's all just so confusing . . .
This meeting of neighbours, in their gardens, I need to know, exactly what is the maximum number per engagement? Should it be no more than 2 per household? What about maximum length of time I am allowed to do this? Do I have to bring all my own cups / plates? Can I accept food from my neighbours? What about cold food? What about drinks? Is tea ok? What about beer?
All these questions...where is the 300 page manual of this....I can't cope otherwise.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
the anti body test that came out with 7.3% was 6 weeks ago, more people will have had it in the mean time. There is always a question of accuracy in these things because of the need to do a blood test that some will object to. Maybe the number we need to have heard immunity is much lower than previously guest at.
I doubt the numbers will be significantly higher. After all, social distancing was only just starting to be observed around that time. It's likely the majority of infections were before such measures were taken, and very unlikely that the true rate is anywhere near 60% (otherwise it would be blindingly obvious in the death statistics).
Socail distancing stated early march, 5 (ish) weeks later is when this test was done, and now is 6 weeks later, in that 5 weeks it when form effectively 0 to max and then has reduced but only slowly for 6 weeks, so I would suggest that the number today is at least twice that. but we do not know, and as stated repeatedly you only need 60% if, 1 there is no voluntary distancing and 2) every person is equally liable to infection. we do not know what the number is other than is is less than the mathematical modals, 15-20% would be my guess and I think London and Stockholm are there or thereabouts.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
When I buy a box of 100 gloves I immediately know it is 50 pairs and anybody pretending otherwise is doing a Tory.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
What does judgement mean? It's all just so confusing . . .
This meeting of neighbours, in their gardens, I need to know, exactly what is the maximum number per engagement? Should it be no more than 2 per household? What about maximum length of time I am allowed to do this? Do I have to bring all my own cups / plates? Can I accept food from my neighbours? What about cold food? What about drinks? Is tea ok? What about beer?
All these questions...where is the 300 page manual of this....I can't cope otherwise.
One other household in the park. Thirty other households at school. What could be clearer? Stay alert!
Done. I will donate mine to All Dogs Matter. It's a small charity and I doubt many people know it but it campaigns against the Breed Specific Legislation part of the Dangerous Dogs Act and where people get the Police knocking on their doors and seizing their pits because PC Plod thinks it's a pitbull
OK done indeed.
One or other maligned and marginalized grouping to benefit - the transgender community or dangerous looking dogs.
I have never thought about it like that. I'm not sure how the transgender community would react to that analogy - nor indeed the pitbulls...
But, correct, both groups are maligned and marginalised.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
the anti body test that came out with 7.3% was 6 weeks ago, more people will have had it in the mean time. There is always a question of accuracy in these things because of the need to do a blood test that some will object to. Maybe the number we need to have heard immunity is much lower than previously guest at.
I doubt the numbers will be significantly higher. After all, social distancing was only just starting to be observed around that time. It's likely the majority of infections were before such measures were taken, and very unlikely that the true rate is anywhere near 60% (otherwise it would be blindingly obvious in the death statistics).
Socail distancing stated early march, 5 (ish) weeks later is when this test was done, and now is 6 weeks later, in that 5 weeks it when form effectively 0 to max and then has reduced but only slowly for 6 weeks, so I would suggest that the number today is at least twice that. but we do not know, and as stated repeatedly you only need 60% if, 1 there is no voluntary distancing and 2) every person is equally liable to infection. we do not know what the number is other than is is less than the mathematical modals, 15-20% would be my guess and I think London and Stockholm are there or thereabouts.
15% is nowhere near enough to say there is "effectively zero chance" of a second wave.
It doesn't seem to be from any specific new study, it is that the CDC slightly altered some wording on their website 10 days ago (and nobody noticed until now).
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
He can send a symbolic message by meeting him in person, like MPs are sending a message by ending remote working.
Exactly. As the medical emergency reduces, the financial one is starting to show.
We need confidence. I might not have been sure Boris was the one to lead a medical emergency, but I suspect he is the perfect one to bring confidence on getting the economy going.
Expect to see Boris in a factory, Boris eating an ice-cream, Boris pulling a pint. It will be like an election without the voting.
I don't think Sturgeon has done well at all in this crisis. If people talk of a lack of talent in the Conservatives, they are clearly ignoring the huge black hole that is behind Sturgeon. However, like Boris, she is capable of going out and bringing confidence to a certain section of the country and that will be vital for Scotland. People will follow her.
I fear for Wales. I can't imagine Drakeford inspiring confidence in anyone. I am not sure there is any Welsh politician at the moment who does that. That will also have to be Boris.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
People werent confused by the UK/English govts advice, we just pointed out its inconsistencies and poor communication.
Whilst I prefer the substance of the UK/English approach to the stricter Scottish one, on the communication the Scottish one is clearer and more sensible precisely because it asks people to use judgement, rather than relying on cabinet ministers to formulate strict advice by doing a series of interviews on breakfast TV.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
I was speaking to a behavioural scientist yesterday and he suggested that studied ambiguity is deliberate – and effective.
What tends to happen is that lower risk groups expose themselves to more risk (good – sunshine, Vitamin D, fresh air, group immunity) and higher risk groups expose themselves to almost no risk (good – avoidance, safety, lack of mingling with low-risk lockdown-shunners).
So, the messaging from Nicola and Bozza is probably about right, he suggested.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
When I buy a box of 100 gloves I immediately know it is 50 pairs and anybody pretending otherwise is doing a Tory.
Quite right. It would be like saying six grouse, rather than three brace.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
REMAIN VIGILANT
RESTEZ PRUDENTS
it says quite a lot that this is where the debate went - all about how it looked rather than the actual content and - given where we are - how it might feed back into hospitalisation and death.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
I was speaking to a behavioural scientist yesterday and he suggested that studied ambiguity is deliberate – and effective.
What tends to happen is that lower risk groups expose themselves to more risk (good – sunshine, Vitamin D, fresh air, group immunity) and higher risk groups expose themselves to almost no risk (good – avoidance, safety, lack of mingling with low-risk lockdown-shunners).
So, the messaging from Nicola and Bozza is probably about right, he suggested.
Shocking, behavioural scientists might know a thing or two.....a bit like this idea that everybody wouldn't observe a lockdown for long periods....
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
I was speaking to a behavioural scientist yesterday and he suggested that studied ambiguity is deliberate – and effective.
What tends to happen is that lower risk groups expose themselves to more risk (good – sunshine, Vitamin D, fresh air, group immunity) and higher risk groups expose themselves to almost no risk (good – avoidance, safety, lack of mingling with low-risk lockdown-shunners).
So, the messaging from Nicola and Bozza is probably about right, he suggested.
Precisely, but why couldn't people have been doing that much sooner?
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
I was speaking to a behavioural scientist yesterday and he suggested that studied ambiguity is deliberate – and effective.
What tends to happen is that lower risk groups expose themselves to more risk (good – sunshine, Vitamin D, fresh air, group immunity) and higher risk groups expose themselves to almost no risk (good – avoidance, safety, lack of mingling with low-risk lockdown-shunners).
So, the messaging from Nicola and Bozza is probably about right, he suggested.
Precisely, but why couldn't people have been doing that much sooner?
Fair point. I think there was a lot of fear and uncertainty in the early days; now the curve has flattened like a pancake, much less so.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
He can send a symbolic message by meeting him in person, like MPs are sending a message by ending remote working.
Exactly. As the medical emergency reduces, the financial one is starting to show.
We need confidence. I might not have been sure Boris was the one to lead a medical emergency, but I suspect he is the perfect one to bring confidence on getting the economy going.
Expect to see Boris in a factory, Boris eating an ice-cream, Boris pulling a pint. It will be like an election without the voting.
I don't think Sturgeon has done well at all in this crisis. If people talk of a lack of talent in the Conservatives, they are clearly ignoring the huge black hole that is behind Sturgeon. However, like Boris, she is capable of going out and bringing confidence to a certain section of the country and that will be vital for Scotland. People will follow her.
I fear for Wales. I can't imagine Drakeford inspiring confidence in anyone. I am not sure there is any Welsh politician at the moment who does that. That will also have to be Boris.
NI is different...
LOL, Tory Klaxon , SNP slump prediction
I've always assumed you were PBs parody account. No-one in real life could be that dim or lacking in self-awareness.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
Deflation is bad is repeated so much, few question it or can explain why, even less know that in the US bestrewn the civil war and first would war, the US simultaneously had deflation, massive economic growth and improvement in living standards.
I don't think I am articulate to explain why in a post on here,
The UK also had deflation for large parts of the 19th Century, a consequence of the Gold Standard, globalisation and improved technology lowering the cost of manufacturing.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...
Perhaps 'Joe was a only tit man' to the strains of Loudon Wainwright's no-longer-quite-appropriate ditty.
lol - very good - is that slightly taking the piss out of His Bobness?
Shouldn't be surprised, Loudon's a spikey kinda dude, but affectionate I'd hope. He was one of a thousand budding singer/songwriter burdened with the description 'the new Dylan' so maybe it made him a little jaundiced.
Dylan was a bane to other male singer songwriters. That rather uncomfortable scene with Donovan in Don't Look Back for example.
If this hypothesis that many get covid-19 and recover without generating antibodies is true, what can we conclude?
- We know that the proportion of Londoners with antibodies is c. 17% - We know that the proportion of Brits outside London with antibodies is c. 5% - Assume proportion of the recoverers who get antibodies is fairly constant (at an unknown level)
Then the maximum proportion of Brits outside of London who have had and recovered from covid-19 is (5/17), or approximately 30%
We can get the number of deaths in hospitals in England and in care homes in England up until the 1st of May. This is 21,865+11,989 = 33,854
The number of deaths in hospitals and care homes in London by that date was 5,435 + 1,654 = 7,089
- Accordingly, the number of deaths in England outside of London up until the 1st of May was 26,765
The population of England is 55,980,000 and the population of London is 8,982,000; accordingly the population of England outside of London is 46,998,000
If 30% of 47 million have been infected by 1st of May, then around 14 million were infected, of whom 26,765 had died. That's just short of one in 500.
By the 1st of May. Any deaths since then (and there certainly have been quite a few) make it even worse.
Given that only(!) one in 1250 Londoners had died by that date, this also makes the assumption that 100% of Londoners had had it look very dubious, so that would imply that significantly fewer than 30% of England-outside-of-London had had it, which makes the IFR outside of London even worse.
I genuinely don't see how the hypothesis makes it past the basic arithmetic. You'd have to postulate a very variable multiple of those-with-antibodies being those-who've-actually-had-it, with no suggested mechanism or rationale.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
When I buy a box of 100 gloves I immediately know it is 50 pairs and anybody pretending otherwise is doing a Tory.
So I have two gloves on in the lab, one gets damaged. Do I (a) remove both gloves and put two more on as they are obviously from a box of 50 pairs or (b) replace only the damaged glove from my box of 100 identical (i.e. not left and right handed) gloves?
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.
I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
Biden's mental faculties could slip dramatically in 5 months too.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
I think the Biden mental deterioration is being overegged but it is definitely a factor.
So long as voters like the VP choice though I'm not sure it makes as much difference as you think. Let's say its Klouboucher - how many Biden voters are going to be so horrified at the prospect of her taking over that they are going to opt for Trump? Not that many I suspect.
If anti-Trump voters are pretty happy with both Biden and the VP then I can't see why concerns about Biden's mental health should be a game changer. It's not as though Trump is playing with a full deck and he is certainly in a far worse physical condition.
It does make the Veep pick so much more critical this year. They have to get it right.
Comments
I assume that the UK figure is using a Porton Down calibrated test - i.e. 17% for London is really 17%.
Hopefully this one, being more damaging, will generate longer lasting antibodies, though.
Next month, for the G7, not next week.
Allows him to skip more PMQs
I am thinking Ferguson is doing well on the numbers, however ropey his software might be, and certainly better than his Swedish critics who predicted an IFR one tenth of his.
y = 0.3201x2 - 31.593x + 872.23
R² = 0.9891
2,144,626 people out of a population of 68 million is 3.1%
0.7-1 with a band of nearly half the lower limit ?
The first example of a second wave?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
All is well in the best of all possible worlds!
The revelation could have big implications for schools and the workplace, both of which are grappling with how to return to normality"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/22/coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-surfaces-us-centers-disease/
4% of those tested on that day had it.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1263823027193643009?s=20
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1263825428680257536?s=20
Swedes are more trusting of government advice, yes, but that is in part because there government trust them, and trust is a two way thing.
Sweden has taken a big economic hit, yes, some of that was inevitable and lot is because Sweden is a big trading nation affected by her trading partners. still I am confadantly predicting that government borrowing, unemployment, loss of GDP and so on will still be smaller than most if not all Western European nations
3,287/80,297 = 4.09% of people tested [were positive]
Sweden only 6th worst in the world in terms deaths per million population (and unlikely to rise higher than 5th)
UK currently 4th worst on same measure (likely to go 3rd in next few days and 2nd by this time next month)
Belgium top on that measure but i read they measure all suspected not confirmed throughout whole Community
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
Speaking on Radio Two's Jeremy Vine show, she said: "Next week will be the tenth time and I think that that would be a beautiful end to the series.
The alternative reason is that in every case there's been a massive lockdown and social distancing implemented. Whether it be an official government mandated one, or an unofficial one where people act rationally in locking down manually.
If there's going to be a lockdown either way (hint: there will be) then it should be for the shortest duration. Which means we all do it until the virus is contained then we can all get back to normal.
The alternative is the official lockdown ends, people don't go back to normal because its still wild and the economy is devastated while people are dying still.
We need confidence. I might not have been sure Boris was the one to lead a medical emergency, but I suspect he is the perfect one to bring confidence on getting the economy going.
Expect to see Boris in a factory, Boris eating an ice-cream, Boris pulling a pint. It will be like an election without the voting.
I don't think Sturgeon has done well at all in this crisis. If people talk of a lack of talent in the Conservatives, they are clearly ignoring the huge black hole that is behind Sturgeon. However, like Boris, she is capable of going out and bringing confidence to a certain section of the country and that will be vital for Scotland. People will follow her.
I fear for Wales. I can't imagine Drakeford inspiring confidence in anyone. I am not sure there is any Welsh politician at the moment who does that. That will also have to be Boris.
NI is different...
Too confusing...
The guidance is to continue to work from home if you can. Politicians largely can, and the best message to convey would be that they are doing so effectively.
Hancock says you need to count the main and reserve chutes.
So presumably thats a relief if there are 2 of you in a burning plane
Churchill: but not on all four.
Have random sampling, especially at airports, and clamp down the moment it pops up. Could do a New Zealand or a South Korea worldwide.
All these questions...where is the 300 page manual of this....I can't cope otherwise.
But, correct, both groups are maligned and marginalised.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/country-reopens-question-remains-can-coronavirus-spread-surfaces-n1211991
Whilst I prefer the substance of the UK/English approach to the stricter Scottish one, on the communication the Scottish one is clearer and more sensible precisely because it asks people to use judgement, rather than relying on cabinet ministers to formulate strict advice by doing a series of interviews on breakfast TV.
What tends to happen is that lower risk groups expose themselves to more risk (good – sunshine, Vitamin D, fresh air, group immunity) and higher risk groups expose themselves to almost no risk (good – avoidance, safety, lack of mingling with low-risk lockdown-shunners).
So, the messaging from Nicola and Bozza is probably about right, he suggested.
REMAIN VIGILANT
RESTEZ PRUDENTS
it says quite a lot that this is where the debate went - all about how it looked rather than the actual content and - given where we are - how it might feed back into hospitalisation and death.
brilliant.
Germany between the wars might be better.
CONTROL THE TORIES
SAVE LIVES!
If this hypothesis that many get covid-19 and recover without generating antibodies is true, what can we conclude?
- We know that the proportion of Londoners with antibodies is c. 17%
- We know that the proportion of Brits outside London with antibodies is c. 5%
- Assume proportion of the recoverers who get antibodies is fairly constant (at an unknown level)
Then the maximum proportion of Brits outside of London who have had and recovered from covid-19 is (5/17), or approximately 30%
We can get the number of deaths in hospitals in England and in care homes in England up until the 1st of May. This is 21,865+11,989 = 33,854
The number of deaths in hospitals and care homes in London by that date was 5,435 + 1,654 = 7,089
- Accordingly, the number of deaths in England outside of London up until the 1st of May was 26,765
The population of England is 55,980,000 and the population of London is 8,982,000; accordingly the population of England outside of London is 46,998,000
If 30% of 47 million have been infected by 1st of May, then around 14 million were infected, of whom 26,765 had died. That's just short of one in 500.
By the 1st of May. Any deaths since then (and there certainly have been quite a few) make it even worse.
Given that only(!) one in 1250 Londoners had died by that date, this also makes the assumption that 100% of Londoners had had it look very dubious, so that would imply that significantly fewer than 30% of England-outside-of-London had had it, which makes the IFR outside of London even worse.
I genuinely don't see how the hypothesis makes it past the basic arithmetic. You'd have to postulate a very variable multiple of those-with-antibodies being those-who've-actually-had-it, with no suggested mechanism or rationale.
Its not a difficult concept.
So long as voters like the VP choice though I'm not sure it makes as much difference as you think. Let's say its Klouboucher - how many Biden voters are going to be so horrified at the prospect of her taking over that they are going to opt for Trump? Not that many I suspect.
If anti-Trump voters are pretty happy with both Biden and the VP then I can't see why concerns about Biden's mental health should be a game changer. It's not as though Trump is playing with a full deck and he is certainly in a far worse physical condition.
It does make the Veep pick so much more critical this year. They have to get it right.