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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to tonight’s PB NightHawks
The big betting move in the last few hours has been on Amy Klobuchar who is to be vetted by the Biden campaign as a possible VP. I’m not sure how significant this is because there have been reports of other potential VP choices also being examined.
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I'm glad the U-turn is being reported as such. This is how credibility in Government starts to fall, now we have a competent opposition ready to take advantage of it.
COVID Underdogs: Mongolia
The best COVID-19 response in the world
https://medium.com/@indica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2
Now it might be random chance. Or it might be those hold. If they do, then at the broadest level then 35 and 25 (assuming equal population sizes) means people with A type blood (like me) are 40% more likely to have caught the virus and had symptoms.
Justin Amash has pulled out, which I think is a pity. but may still be some interest or Political 'junkys'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KC6sTITu6E
If you dont want your unwarranted personal attacks to be pointed out you should stick to.policy.
How long before the economic disaster leads every night over the dwindling virus deaths and clapping, as we move to the next stage?
But it's not a party political thing. I struggle to think what Labour or the Lib Dems would have done differently to avoid this.
I've said several times I wouldn't have had a lockdown (beyond a brief temporary one to build NHS capacity) and would have followed the Swedish model.
But even countries that remained open will suffer from this staggering global recession, as well as people's reticence to go out (Sweden's model relies on people voluntarily having less contact).
So I think it's odd you're trying to make this a party political thing. Not everything in life is about party politics.
sadly ballot access Laws don;t alaw it,
Welcome the views of others, thanks for your input.
Not without justification.
https://snowbrains.com/everest-visible-kathmandu-nepal-first-time/
We could and should just open everything now, most people will still stay in and there is very unlikely to be second wave bigger than the NHS can handal. and if there is going to be a second wave when we reopen, then that would come anyway at whatever point we re-open so unless we are prepared to wait till a vacine is developed, then we might as well have it now and get it over with, rater than courses more harm to the economy with the delay.
https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1263523204045430790?s=20
Basically, his point is that government intervention usually has two consequences: (1) it furthers long term income and capital inequality by protecting the owners of capital, and (2) it usually makes recovery longer than shorter.
The key, of course, is that a crash (like the one we've had) doesn't actually actually affect the productive power of the economy. It might mean you lose the time, money and hard work you sunk into your business. But - to take the example of a restaraunt - it has not made the tables, chairs, cookers, pots and pans disappear.
...and lo and behold it's a Norman name with an earliest known holder of the name born in the year 1000.
So my family probably goes back further than @Charles's lol!
Anyway it's an interesting resource - I have a feeling it may only be free access until midnight today though.
https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199677764.001.0001/acref-9780199677764
That is whether we return to the economic systems of last year or whether more fundamental changes, wfh for example, become permanent.
The more and deeper the fundamental changes then the greater the number of people who will be significantly affected either positively or negatively.
Countries that have better technology and/or more authoritarian surveillance have an in built advantage. UAE and Singapore probably hit the sweet spots for expected world leaders here.
We need to get used to doing things that are right for us, not expecting to be the best at everything (or randomly proclaiming to be the best).
While Jonson himself might understand the power of free enterprise, in the currant atmofire I don't think he could be seen to get rid of the minimum wage for example.
The second wave won't happen if we squash base load of cases to a low amount and keep R low and have containment policies.
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1263425621792821248
don't forget that with the depreshion of 1929, unemployment first peaked at less than 10% and then whan down a lot I think to about 6% before the government got heavenly involved and it what back up and stayed at over 10% for a decade.
The point here is that this is not like a normal recession, where you get a proportion of the weaker players in a given sector going out of business or being taken over by stronger rivals at a knockdown price; it's whole sectors - healthy, profitable sectors until the shutters came down on them virtually overnight - being clobbered.
It seems to me that the financial markets and pundits are underestimating the scale of the disaster. It's going to be a long, slow crawl out of this.
I think if you combined the collective brain cells of our pbCOM Tories...they out rival themselves on their gross stupidity and fuckwittery...and eulogies to all things Boris and Brexit....if you combined their brain cells and multiplied by 10..I still don't think you'd arrive at anything sensible...
I think the furlough scheme is a reasonable compromise that will help us get through this relatively intact. The weak businesses will collapse still like in any recession (but perhaps with a bit more of a notice period) but the healthy ones should be able to get out of this intact, and allow the industry to keep going. The healthy ones may even be able to pick up some of what has gone bust elsewhere to expand and get productivity going up.
* Well of course there is one thing they could do to help things somewhat, but this government of ultra-Brexit loons won't do it.
The financial markets are doing well because there is a shed load of cash sloshing around and no good options. And it is populated by short term speculators.
But....the real economy is fucked....really fucked...properly fucked everywhere, globally....this is not the financial crash, this is not even a world war where industry could mobilise....this is unlike anything that we have ever seen. It's a slow strangulation....or slow crawl....the same
I don't see how Brexit is relevant except thankfully the transition will end so we're not on the hook for bailing out the continent as well as fixing our own problems.
irrespective of that some places have opened up already without big problems e.g. in the UK Georgia or Denmark
R dropped before lockdown just from washing our hands, even when we lacked the testing and tracing capabilities. Why can't washing our hands plus testing and tracing keep it down?
Some places have but their case numbers when they did were lower than ours are. The lower we can get the case numbers, the easier it will be to contain this. The better we contain this the more we can get back to normal. Do you understand that logic?
If you are scrapping an aeroplane, it's because there are purchasers for the bits who will presumably find useful ways of using them.
Smug, leftist wank....give it a rest.
I do have some sympathy with the argument that merely extending the transition in itself is simply avoiding a resolution of the issues, but the difficulty is that even with Covid-19, eleven months to negotiate a deal and, crucially, to prepare for it, was always absurdly short. Businesses and governments, even in normal times, would need at least six months to make preparations once they know what they are preparing for. That means that even without Covid-19 we would need to be finalising the trade deal now in order to implement it in January. With Covid-19, who the hell is able to give this full attention?
This is a joint failure of the UK and the EU. The UK for ideological insanity, and the EU for the root cause of the problem, namely their daft and inflexible sequencing. The whole thing has been backwards - we should have negotiated the trade deal first, and then jointly figured out what was needed to transition to it. Instead we're in an 11 months transition to an unknown destination. Completely bonkers.
If we can get the new cases in the hundreds rather than thousands per day and keep R below 1 then the virus will be very containable and the rest of us can get back to normal.
In any case much of the original worth of a modern business is intangible, and will simply evaporate.
*checks notes*
"...more than 100 bearers..."
Ah, well. That'd be it.