politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Johnson U-turn on the NHS surcharge for overseas NHS workers would be a big win for Starmer
Boris Johnson is facing a Tory rebellion on NHS migrant surchargeHandful of MPs have gone public but growing concerns behind the scenes: https://t.co/69R4LhpPJW
Devil's advocate - for a UK born nurse to join the NHS they have to borrow £27,750 to fund their degree. Why shouldn't overseas nurses have to pay something.
Devil's advocate - for a UK born nurse to join the NHS they have to borrow £27,750 to fund their degree. Why shouldn't overseas nurses have to pay something.
Is that still the case? I though the grants were back.
Devil's advocate - for a UK born nurse to join the NHS they have to borrow £27,750 to fund their degree. Why shouldn't overseas nurses have to pay something.
Is that still the case? I though the grants were back.
Devil's advocate - for a UK born nurse to join the NHS they have to borrow £27,750 to fund their degree. Why shouldn't overseas nurses have to pay something.
Is that still the case? I though the grants were back.
Start in Sept 2020
Ok, shitty for the people who did the course during the last three years, I hope their remaining debt gets written off.
"Net migration to the UK from countries outside the European Union has risen to its highest level for 45 years, the Office for National Statistics says."
I can't quite work out how the government have got themselves in this situation in the first place, this could easily have been spun as a positive thing i.e. we respect the work being done by the NHS workers, therefore we will exempt them (or some sort of fudge, where the NHS pay it for them and the government give the NHS the money i.e. an accounting exercise).
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
I can't quite work out how the government have got themselves in this situation in the first place, this could easily have been spun as a positive thing i.e. we respect the work being done by the NHS workers, therefore we will exempt them (or some sort of fudge, where the NHS pay it for them and the government give the NHS the money i.e. an accounting exercise).
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
Its an ongoing cost in perpetuity not a one-off cost. The money forest at the minute is for one off costs but we'll need to fix the deficit afterwards.
I can't quite work out how the government have got themselves in this situation in the first place, this could easily have been spun as a positive thing i.e. we respect the work being done by the NHS workers, therefore we will exempt them (or some sort of fudge, where the NHS pay it for them and the government give the NHS the money i.e. an accounting exercise).
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
Yes, it's such an oddly simple thing to fix as well, have the NHS or any CQC registered company pay the fee on the employee's behalf and then refund that amount.
I can't quite work out how the government have got themselves in this situation in the first place, this could easily have been spun as a positive thing i.e. we respect the work being done by the NHS workers, therefore we will exempt them (or some sort of fudge, where the NHS pay it for them and the government give the NHS the money i.e. an accounting exercise).
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
Speaking of rounding errors, it is amazing what a mess successive governments have made of social care - which involves millions of real voters closely as TM found out in 2017 - when the actual cost of sorting it is about a zillionth of the fruit of the magic money tree currently yielding so freely.
I can't quite work out how the government have got themselves in this situation in the first place, this could easily have been spun as a positive thing i.e. we respect the work being done by the NHS workers, therefore we will exempt them (or some sort of fudge, where the NHS pay it for them and the government give the NHS the money i.e. an accounting exercise).
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
Yes, it's such an oddly simple thing to fix as well, have the NHS or any CQC registered company pay the fee on the employee's behalf and then refund that amount.
I imagine that's how the review will suggest it gets dealt with and its what I proposed earlier this week. Therefore the principle of everyone pays is still there, just they're getting sponsored by the NHS.
That way you don't get in a few weeks/months time people arguing that xyz other special cases should be exempt too until the whole thing is full of holes.
Arcurigate. The contrast between these two paragraphs in the IOPC statement is striking.
“We found no evidence to indicate that Mr Johnson influenced the payment of any sponsorship monies to Ms Arcuri or that he influenced or played an active part in securing her participation in trade missions.
“While there was no evidence that Mr Johnson influenced the payment of sponsorship monies or participation in trade missions, there was evidence to suggest that those officers making decisions about sponsorship monies and attendance on trade missions thought that there was a close relationship between Mr Johnson and Ms Arcuri, and this influenced their decision-making.”
Surely the thing to do is to scrap the charges for everyone (not just NHS workers) as long as lockdown is in place (i.e. for the time being, we're all here and can't really go anywhere else).
Looks like Starmer won PMQs after all! Where he leads the PM follows. And so the narrative builds.
A long, long way to go, but today is a very good day for the Labour party - and for the country. We are all much better off with an opposition the government cannot just ignore.
No but you see PMQs has no impact, you see because Starmer won it is now irrelevant, that is what the Tories on PB say, whilst also trying to suggest the EU is racist and Boris Johnson is all muscle.
I’m not sure which is the worse look: following your opponent’s lead, fragility in the face of fire or getting yourself on the wrong side of public opinion in the first place.
A few such speedy u-turns by the government are fine - good, even, if executed so quickly. If it starts becoming a habit, the government will start looking a pushover.
Sunak might be handing out sweeties but he is also, on what we have seen so far, a good leader (or he knows someone who is). Look at the relative efficiency of the Treasury's websites and procedures for claims, and contrast it with serial confusion at Number 10, at Health over PPE and testing, and now Education as well.
Sunak at the Number 10 briefings also seems charismatic, clear and authoritative. His Cabinet colleagues fail on at least one of those and often all three.
The problem with backing him as next Prime Minister is that unless Boris retires on health grounds, you need to imagine a crisis that will remove the Prime Minister but not the Chancellor, and with the Arcurigate verdict in, it is hard to see.
I’m not sure which is the worse look: following your opponent’s lead, fragility in the face of fire or getting yourself on the wrong side of public opinion in the first place.
A few such speedy u-turns by the government are fine - good, even, if executed so quickly. If it starts becoming a habit, the government will start looking a pushover.
Its been quite clear for weeks that Johnson is terrified of bad notice, a bit of bad publicity or a wailing commentariat.
This issue would have been quickly forgotten by the electorate, a big chunk of which is faced with losing its livelihood sharpish.
Looks like Starmer won PMQs after all! Where he leads the PM follows. And so the narrative builds.
A long, long way to go, but today is a very good day for the Labour party - and for the country. We are all much better off with an opposition the government cannot just ignore.
This is just the phony war. The real battle is still to come. If Starmer is smart, he's already plotting his responses to the big decisions coming up.
I’m not sure which is the worse look: following your opponent’s lead, fragility in the face of fire or getting yourself on the wrong side of public opinion in the first place.
A few such speedy u-turns by the government are fine - good, even, if executed so quickly. If it starts becoming a habit, the government will start looking a pushover.
Its been quite clear for weeks that Johnson is terrified of bad notice, a bit of bad publicity or a wailing commentariat.
This issue would have been quickly forgotten by the electorate, a big chunk of which is faced with losing its livelihood sharpish.
No you're wrong, the issue struck a chord, it wasn't going away. Sensible to neuter it sooner than later.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
Under Patel's proposals, isn;t it going to be more difficult for low earning people to get into the country in the first place?
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
If you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes and you pay your surcharge then you're contributing to the country that has taken you in. Welcome and thank you for your contribution to society.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
Under Patel's proposals, isn;t it going to be more difficult for low earning people to get into the country in the first place?
What if they come for a week then leave ? Costly overheads for the Uk.
This is just virtue signalling from Labour - their prime focus in a pandemic is not the Uk - but immigrants who haven't yet arrived.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
I imagine if you're a labour supporter the answer would be hell yes...???
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
If you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes and you pay your surcharge then you're contributing to the country that has taken you in. Welcome and thank you for your contribution to society.
So your argument makes no sense then and is just anti-immigrant for the sake of it.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
If you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes and you pay your surcharge then you're contributing to the country that has taken you in. Welcome and thank you for your contribution to society.
So your argument makes no sense then and is just anti-immigrant for the sake of it.
I really expected nothing less from you.
What, no, how did you get that?
Its pro-immigrant. I think we should be welcoming to more people, whoever wants to come here and pay their way. If I want to go overseas I'd be expected to pay there too - and if someone because a naturalised British citizen there'd be no surcharge.
"Net migration to the UK from countries outside the European Union has risen to its highest level for 45 years, the Office for National Statistics says."
Thanks for posting the interview with Professor Sunetra Gupta on the previous thread. It was a shame it got snaffled by the new thread as it's one of the best things I have watched since the crisis began.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
If you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes and you pay your surcharge then you're contributing to the country that has taken you in. Welcome and thank you for your contribution to society.
So your argument makes no sense then and is just anti-immigrant for the sake of it.
I really expected nothing less from you.
I imagine your crusade to cut costs for American bankers and the like, whilst noble, will elicit little support from other labour supporters.
In non-betting/politics news, for all turn based gamers out there Civ 6 is going to be free to download and keep on the Epic Games Store this week.
Thanks, hope I can catch that window! Please say when it is free.
Epic seem to have made quite a few free recently.
I'm tempted to take the free hit: loved Civ 2 & 4 but found 5 painful without unit stacking. Still with time to kill at the moment might give the latest iteration a go.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Not necessarily. A very large number of people pay less in tax than they get from the NHS and elsewhere. A surcharge ensures they are paying.
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
But what if you're a rich immigrant and you pay your taxes which more than cover the cost of your healthcare and you end up contributing more than the average British citizen, you're saying they should still pay more?
If you are a rich immigrant, you probably have all your assets in the Cayman Islands, so you don´t have to pay any taxes here anyway. The Conservatives know who their friends are.
The wearing of medical face masks (hereinafter “face masks”) should be recommended for all passengers and persons within the airport and aircraft, from the moment they enter the terminal building at the departure airport until they exit the terminal building at the destination airport......
Passengers should be reminded that typically, face masks should be replaced after being worn for 4 hours, if not advised otherwise by the mask manufacturer, or when becoming wet or soiled, and that they should ensure a sufficient supply of masks adequate for the entire duration of their journey.
I don't understand the justification for a surcharge anyway. Don't immigrants pay for the NHS through their taxes, the same as the rest of us?
Lots of things are unjustified. But if people are willing to pay...
Most immigrants will also pay for the NHS at the point of use, as overseas visitors...
Yes, that seems unfair. Saddling youngsters with tens of thousands pounds of debt seems unfair to me too. But there seems to be plenty of demand to do it (or at least there was). And I'd argue tuition fees is worse because youngsters are more likely to be ripped off than adults.
An Opposition. An actual Opposition. What a relief. And this victory within only weeks of Starmer winning leadership, just shows what a waste the five years of self-indulgence and fantasy that Corbyn and his whole team was.
Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford University:
"Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%."
You've got to give Johnson credit for caving in quickly and not letting this become a bigger issue.
Yep. Theresa May would not have done this. Johnson has done the right thing.
Starmer has developed quite an interesting tactic at PMQs. Its not just Punch and Judy, or even a QC forensically questioning a hapless suspect.
Starmer is using PMQs in a way that I cannot recall in recent times. He is using it to lead the agenda. First this reverse on policy, but also the heffalump trap set for 1 June if we do not have an effective Tracing system in place.
You can just close your eyes and see the advisors trying to get some pretence of that in place for that deadline. Meanwhile the heffalump will blunder into another one.
Its like watching my cat play with a mouse. Gripping and appalling at the same time.
No but you see PMQs has no impact, you see because Starmer won it is now irrelevant, that is what the Tories on PB say, whilst also trying to suggest the EU is racist and Boris Johnson is all muscle.
The EU is not racist. That's ridiculous. On the other hand, Boris Johnson, phwoar. Who knew?
Comments
Track and Trace won't be available on June 1st which Boris promised would be the case yesterday even when SKS pushed the point and offered a get out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52752656
Given the magic money forest being harvested every day to pay for this crisis, it isn't even a rounding error.
Over 1 million excess tests.
Cant we get a system to track and trace the missing tests.
Surely Matt Hancock could do that by 1st June
Not saying which year obvs
That way you don't get in a few weeks/months time people arguing that xyz other special cases should be exempt too until the whole thing is full of holes.
Lowest Tory score in some time.
Anyone know if its a lot lower?
Much lower rating for Starmer
And that may be Boris's strength: his willingness to pinch the Opposition's policies.
Good ideas should be adopted, it doesn't matter where they come from.
Bad ideas should be dropped, it doesn't matter where they came from.
“We found no evidence to indicate that Mr Johnson influenced the payment of any sponsorship monies to Ms Arcuri or that he influenced or played an active part in securing her participation in trade missions.
“While there was no evidence that Mr Johnson influenced the payment of sponsorship monies or participation in trade missions, there was evidence to suggest that those officers making decisions about sponsorship monies and attendance on trade missions thought that there was a close relationship between Mr Johnson and Ms Arcuri, and this influenced their decision-making.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/boris-johnson-will-not-face-criminal-investigation-relationship/
A long, long way to go, but today is a very good day for the Labour party - and for the country. We are all much better off with an opposition the government cannot just ignore.
Epic seem to have made quite a few free recently.
So along with the U Turn on who is entitled to the death in service award, i make it Piers Morgan 2 - O PM Johnson today.
Perhaps Morgan should make all the decisions even has initials PM
A few such speedy u-turns by the government are fine - good, even, if executed so quickly. If it starts becoming a habit, the government will start looking a pushover.
Good response.
Sunak at the Number 10 briefings also seems charismatic, clear and authoritative. His Cabinet colleagues fail on at least one of those and often all three.
The problem with backing him as next Prime Minister is that unless Boris retires on health grounds, you need to imagine a crisis that will remove the Prime Minister but not the Chancellor, and with the Arcurigate verdict in, it is hard to see.
This issue would have been quickly forgotten by the electorate, a big chunk of which is faced with losing its livelihood sharpish.
https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1263497230633353217
The justification for the difference is that we want our own citizens to get universal access to healthcare even if they're low earning and not paying tax but why should we be allowing low earning people who don't pay tax in and letting them use the NHS still?
This is just virtue signalling from Labour - their prime focus in a pandemic is not the Uk - but immigrants who haven't yet arrived.
They keep on barking up the loser tree.
I really expected nothing less from you.
ComRes broadly in line with other polls in terms of Labour increase.
I maintain my prediction of a single figure lead by the end of the year.
Its pro-immigrant. I think we should be welcoming to more people, whoever wants to come here and pay their way. If I want to go overseas I'd be expected to pay there too - and if someone because a naturalised British citizen there'd be no surcharge.
Anyone who hasn't yet watched it, should.
Apart from being immigrants, they should pay more why again?
Opposition functioning properly and doing its job; Government being sensible and conciliatory.
Good.
Move on.
The wearing of medical face masks (hereinafter “face masks”) should be recommended for all passengers and persons within the airport and aircraft, from the moment they enter the terminal building at the departure airport until they exit the terminal building at the destination airport......
Passengers should be reminded that typically, face masks should be replaced after being worn for 4 hours, if not advised otherwise by the mask manufacturer, or when becoming wet or soiled, and that they should ensure a sufficient supply of masks adequate for the entire duration of their journey.
emphasis added
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/EASA-ECDC_COVID-19_Operational guidelines for management of passengers_final.pdf
So why should immigrants pay more just because they're immigrants, again?
"Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%."
https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/
youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI
Starmer is using PMQs in a way that I cannot recall in recent times. He is using it to lead the agenda. First this reverse on policy, but also the heffalump trap set for 1 June if we do not have an effective Tracing system in place.
You can just close your eyes and see the advisors trying to get some pretence of that in place for that deadline. Meanwhile the heffalump will blunder into another one.
Its like watching my cat play with a mouse. Gripping and appalling at the same time.