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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster s

SystemSystem Posts: 11,700
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

Ipsos-MORI has been around longer than any of the firms currently measuring political opinion in the UK and its findings for December will add to the nagging doubts we are seeing in the Labour team.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    What a shame.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Obviously it's leader ratings amongst 2010 Lib Dems that really count.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Nothing says it's Friday like an 'Ed is crap' thread....
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    SB Looks like we will soon need seven Fridays in a week.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    39/29% is a big lead for Cameron over Milliband. I think Milliband's problem is that the voters as a whole made up their minds about him a long time ago. When he has a good run, his ratings pick up a bit, but then they subside back down again.

    Of course, Labour do have a pretty solid bloc of support, notwithstanding peoples' views about their leader.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You really do wonder what would happen to labour's economic critique if real pay started growing again next year, as is being forecast.

    Goodness me.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    But what has Clegg done to get such a boost in his ratings?

    Also Nick/Ed crossover next year in the ratings?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Even George has become popular in the past few months.

    Balls deep in trouble ?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-

    (Central forecast)

    Con vote lead 7.3%
    Con seat lead 57 seats

    (10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

    Chance of Tory vote lead: 99.9%
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 97.4%

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 63.5%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 36.5%
    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

    A recovery in Tory fortunes, after a slight weakening last month, back to more or less where it's been since May 2013.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Those substantially positive ratings for Ed seem further away than ever. Poor IOS.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What will Labour do with their Toxic Balls ?

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    TGOHF said:

    What will Labour do with their Toxic Balls ?

    Jack Dromey will accidentally tweet a picture of it?

  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2013
    Neil said:

    Obviously it's leader ratings amongst 2010 Lib Dems that really count.

    tim's busy polling Mrs Trellis in North Wales.

  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Even George has become popular in the past few months.

    Balls deep in trouble ?

    Mr TSE, how long have you waited to say that ? : )
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Clegg + 7

    Those 2010 LDs warming up to him ?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    TGOHF said:

    Clegg + 7

    Those 2010 LDs warming up to him ?

    Clegg +14.

    +7 is the swing.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Even George has become popular in the past few months.

    Balls deep in trouble ?

    Mr TSE, how long have you waited to say that ? : )
    No comment.

  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,437
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    But what has Clegg done to get such a boost in his ratings?

    Also Nick/Ed crossover next year in the ratings?

    My working assumption is that Clegg's popularity rating is a proxy for the coalition's popularity, as Clegg is its embodiment. So an improvement in the economy broadly means that the coalition is working and Clegg's raison d'etre is approved.

    Or is this getting cause and correlation confused?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimMontgomerie: To have an unpopular leader looks unfortunate. To have an unpopular leader *and* Treasury spokesman looks careless http://t.co/x4RCaVDuzW
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    To save me having to do it when I get home...
    Can anybody post the leader ratings by party id? Only Lab in the thread header.
    (limited access & time atm)


  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FWIW, I'm expecting the first Tory VI leads to start popping up around May 2014....
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm starting to have an ounce of respect for Nick Clegg

    He's taken the mother of all monsterings in the last three years, and yet he's still going strong.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Two Eds = Varro and Paullus

    Dave = Hannibal.

    Discuss.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    taffys said:

    I'm starting to have an ounce of respect for Nick Clegg

    He's taken the mother of all monsterings in the last three years, and yet he's still going strong.

    It was the Christmas Card wot did it.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited December 2013
    There some other interesting nuggets in the Ipsos Mori poll.

    I don't know how it was done, probably by phone number area code and the respondents might not be aware of their constituency like in proper constituency polling, and they're probably not weighted properly etc etc, but they have split up the answers into safe seats, marginal seats and LD seats. Probably not worth reproducing in any great detail as the Tories apparently get an 18 point lead in Tory marginals and a 14 point lead in LD seats over both Labour and LDs!

    Anyway government satisfaction is -25 across the country, -5 in Tory marginals and LD seats.

    Approval of Cameron is -13 nationally; +9 in Tory marginals (-5 in safe Tory seats)

    Approval of Miliband is -25 nationally; -13 in Tory marginals (-17 in Labour marginals; -25 in safe Labour seats; -38 in LD seats)
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2013
    AveryLP said:

    taffys said:

    I'm starting to have an ounce of respect for Nick Clegg

    He's taken the mother of all monsterings in the last three years, and yet he's still going strong.

    It was the Christmas Card wot did it.
    I think you may be right - it was awesome.

    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/12/10/1386675094766/Nick-Cleggs-Christmas-car-001.jpg
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Clegg + 7

    Those 2010 LDs warming up to him ?

    Clegg +14.

    +7 is the swing.

    Yes - in a month ... those 2010 LDs won't be able to resist forever..
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    taffys said:

    I'm starting to have an ounce of respect for Nick Clegg

    He's taken the mother of all monsterings in the last three years, and yet he's still going strong.

    welcome to the cockroach club, you can join myself and Mr Eagles on the benches of those who say you write him off at your peril.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    SimonStClare said:

    AveryLP said:

    taffys said:

    I'm starting to have an ounce of respect for Nick Clegg

    He's taken the mother of all monsterings in the last three years, and yet he's still going strong.

    It was the Christmas Card wot did it.
    I think you may be right - it was awesome.

    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/12/10/1386675094766/Nick-Cleggs-Christmas-car-001.jpg
    Is that for real? It's actually quite awesome
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Messiah Goves joke schools in trouble again

    No one's laughing, tim?

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Millsy said:




    Approval of Miliband is -25 nationally; -13 in Tory marginals (-17 in Labour marginals; -25 in safe Labour seats; -38 in LD seats)

    Mili in safe Con seats ? Quite popular I'd imagine :D
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Only Lab supporters home on a Monday....
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    o_O


  • Options
    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    So we have Avery predicting crossover in 12 days and now Rod predicting crossover in May. Don't worry chaps, you can keep knocking them back every few months. Amazing how long "imminent" is.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    @Antifrank

    FPT Out of interest, isam, how did you feel about a group of Hungarians winning Britain's Got Talent?
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I haven't watched that show before, but I assume it is about finding the act living in Britain that viewers think is the best?

    If that's the case then I don't think it matters which nationality the act is
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    At some point tim will realise that his joy at the March 2012 "omnishambes" Budget was misplaced, as behind the smoke-screen, it led to Osborne delivering the strengthening economy that will see Labour seriously under-perform his hopes in 2015.

    He will no doubt be scratching his head wondering how on earth "Griggs-gate" didn't deliver Ed Miliband, Prime Minister....
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    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    Messiah Goves joke schools in trouble again

    No one's laughing, tim?

    Especially the pupils.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter1 said:

    So we have Avery predicting crossover in 12 days and now Rod predicting crossover in May. Don't worry chaps, you can keep knocking them back every few months. Amazing how long "imminent" is.

    It is 8 letters long, compouter.

  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    DaemonBarber said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    o_O


    All the tories were out at work clearly..
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    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    AveryLP said:

    compouter1 said:

    So we have Avery predicting crossover in 12 days and now Rod predicting crossover in May. Don't worry chaps, you can keep knocking them back every few months. Amazing how long "imminent" is.

    It is 8 letters long, compouter.

    And in time in your world, many many months.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

  • Options
    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    MikeSmithson said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

    Out playing bingo or gin rummy.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Scott_P said:

    @TimMontgomerie: To have an unpopular leader looks unfortunate. To have an unpopular leader *and* Treasury spokesman looks careless http://t.co/x4RCaVDuzW

    To be fair, Balls was Ed's second choice...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    MikeSmithson said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

    Out using their free bus passes....
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    @rcs100

    FPT

    My comments are not really about the rights and wrongs of foreign coaches. They are about the fact that we play within a set of rules that are determined by a sport's governing body. We cannot be cheating so long as we play within those rules. And we should do everything we can within those rules to win.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I would have thought that the rules for competitive international sport were drawn up many years before globalisation, in a time when it was quite unthinkable for someone of a different nationality to coach a National team.

    Times have changed and no rule has been introduced to enforce what used to be governed by a moral compass.

    Our argument is more one of "rules of the game" vs "spirit of the game", or "gamesmanship" and "sportsmanship"... technically you are right in what you say, and you seem to be more in touch with the way of the modern world than I in your thinking on this. So be it.
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    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    .....and despite all of the above.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Show me the crossover........Show me the crossover.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    In Tory marginals according to Ipsos Mori:

    Net like Osborne -11
    Net like policies +5

    Net like Balls -12
    Net like policies -37
  • Options
    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Slackbladder said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

    Out using their free bus passes....
    Out spending their winter fuel allowance.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    MikeSmithson said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

    Retired Tory men and women spend their days out of the home, working unpaid on the Big Society.

    Unemployed Labour men and women spend their days at home, watching Jeremy Kyle and Cash in the Attic.

    No-one knows what unemployed or retired Lib Dems do ...

    ;-)
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @isam

    Celine Dion singing for Switzerland in Eurovision must have messed with your mind! ;)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Millsy said:

    In Tory marginals according to Ipsos Mori:


    Net like policies +5

    Net like policies -37

    Stunning - shows how ill advised Ed's sharp turn to the left was.



  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MarqueeMark said:

    At some point tim will realise that his joy at the March 2012 "omnishambes" Budget was misplaced, as behind the smoke-screen, it led to Osborne delivering the strengthening economy that will see Labour seriously under-perform his hopes in 2015.

    He will no doubt be scratching his head wondering how on earth "Griggs-gate" didn't deliver Ed Miliband, Prime Minister....

    While he was fwapping at the pasty tax the corporation tax cuts were laying the groundwork for the recovery.

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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives' George Osborne or Labour's Ed Balls?

    (Net Osborne)

    All +11
    Tory marginals +18
    Lab marginals -5
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Slackbladder

    'To be fair, Balls was Ed's second choice...'

    Voter repellent,just reminds everyone of Brown & McBride.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I do like the way Ipsos-MORI has added a whole new range of data particularly the breakdown by seat type.
    JosiasJessop said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    LAB had lead of 21% on MON the final day of Ipsos-MORI fieldwork
    It was SAT 3%
    SUN 2%
    MON 21%

    Tories back at work, Mike.

    Hardly. Most of them are retired

    Retired Tory men and women spend their days out of the home, working unpaid on the Big Society.

    Unemployed Labour men and women spend their days at home, watching Jeremy Kyle and Cash in the Attic.

    No-one knows what unemployed or retired Lib Dems do ...

    ;-)
    ...they run websites like PB

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    Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    Whilst noting that the big political issue really concerns Michael Gove, it is incredible that Ed Balls is so unpopular given that he hasn't actually had to make a spending cut or raise a tax as Chancellor. Imagine what his ratings would be like if he ever had? The hopeless multi-chinned fop!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Neil said:

    @isam

    Celine Dion singing for Switzerland in Eurovision must have messed with your mind! ;)

    I didn't know she had!

    Quite like Celine, I saw her live at Wembley in 1999 w my ex girlfriend for her 21st

    Seems strange to me that Switzerland would deprive a Swiss person the chance, but I don't make the rules
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    At this rate Harman will be heading up Labour's election campaign.....
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Labour haven't really done anything or said much in recent times hence the slight downward pressure on their score. But it doesn't really matter. They just need to keep cool and hold their ground for a while. Tellingly, the ten tonnes of slurry they had thrown at them over the autumn has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us. Even mad Carlotta has given up on it now.

    I think Labour will be happy enough to skate into the New Year with a ~5pt lead. Meanwhile, the Tories on here will write their election winning speeches.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TGOHF said:

    What will Labour do with their Toxic Balls ?

    lindane - topical shampoo?
    http://www.medicinenet.com/lindane-topical_shampoo/article.htm

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    MikeSmithson said:



    ...they run websites like PB

    There are other websites like PB???
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    @isam

    I always remember my dad (OGH) saying of Mike Atherton "I wouldn't want anyone playing for England who wasn't prepared to cheat for his country"

    I assume his tongue was at least partially in his cheek
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    tim said:

    Messiah Goves joke schools in trouble again

    Has it been caught sending inappropriate Tweets?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ..they run websites like PB

    And a vital social function it is.

    Big society in action
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Millsy said:

    At this rate Harman will be heading up Labour's election campaign.....

    The St. Pauls old girl and niece of the Countess of Longford would really give the voters of Britain a chance to put in place something different from the old Fopocracy.

    Or not.


  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: BBC: "Labour has warned MP Jack Dromey about using potentially "offensive" language" http://t.co/GtL5bEmqKo Who gave the warning? Harman?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: BBC: "Labour has warned MP Jack Dromey about using potentially "offensive" language" http://t.co/GtL5bEmqKo Who gave the warning? Harman?

    Len.

  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Gove is not taking any prisoners..If the school is not run properly then it gets closed This should have happened in Labours 13 wasted years.. Other schools will no doubt be taking notice.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited December 2013
    Except Falkirk/Unite HAS had an effect. And a rather significant one. Indeed a Gold Standard one. Ed's Leader MORI ratings vs Dave's have slumped to -12%.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited December 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    @isam

    I always remember my dad (OGH) saying of Mike Atherton "I wouldn't want anyone playing for England who wasn't prepared to cheat for his country"

    I assume his tongue was at least partially in his cheek

    Yes, I wouldn't want to sound too high and mighty ( although I know I did sound exactly that!)

    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    I think its analogous to having a drunken one night stand against arranging to meet someone for an extra marital affair... both are wrong, but doing regrettable things in the heat of the moment is more forgivable than planning to do so in cold blood

  • Options
    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    A couple of predictions then for the record:

    Avery crossover by 25 Dec
    Rod Crosby crossover by May 1

    Noted.
  • Options
    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @isam

    I always remember my dad (OGH) saying of Mike Atherton "I wouldn't want anyone playing for England who wasn't prepared to cheat for his country"

    I assume his tongue was at least partially in his cheek

    Yes, I wouldn't want to sound too high and mighty ( although I know I did sound exactly that!)

    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    I think its analogous to having a drunken one night stand against arranging to meet someone for an extra marital affair... both are wrong, but doing regrettable things in the heat of the moment is more forgivable than planning to do so in cold blood

    I'd agree with all of that. And I would like to apologise for my tone in the previous exchange. It was rude and unnecessary.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:


    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    Would you feel bad if you had a manager who was <35?

    I put out a side with a back four of a combined age of 200+ last weekend :/
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    MORI - Lab lead 4%
    ICM - Lab lead 5%
    Populus - Lab lead 5%
    YouGov (today) - Lab lead 4%
    YouGov (average of 4 polls this week) - Lab lead 5%

    That looks pretty suggestive that the Lab lead has narrowed from approx 7% down to approx 5%. Not a huge move but certainly a noticeable one.

    Ed's energy freeze fading into the background and the improving economy very, very slowly getting absorbed.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2013
    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    I doubt this was the case - Labour seems incapable of peeving off its core vote in Scotland despite shafting it for the last 30 years.

    Falkirk is more likely to be damaging to Ed in middle England - who are less enamoured with "union firebrands" than the Jockanese.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    While we are on predictions, not sure how to precisely quantify this, but UKIP will do very well in May - at taking votes away from Labour. I expect Labour to under-perform expectations (however they are formulated!) by at least a 5% vote share. So an expected say 29% will turn to actual 24% of votes cast.

    Which would make it a crap-shoot predicting 2015!
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    MikeL said:

    MORI - Lab lead 4%
    ICM - Lab lead 5%
    Populus - Lab lead 5%
    YouGov (today) - Lab lead 4%
    YouGov (average of 4 polls this week) - Lab lead 5%

    That looks pretty suggestive that the Lab lead has narrowed from approx 7% down to approx 5%. Not a huge move but certainly a noticeable one.

    Ed's energy freeze fading into the background and the improving economy very, very slowly getting absorbed.

    My sense is that it's come mostly from an increase in the Tory score than a fall in Labour. I could be wrong - haven't studied the numbers.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Bobajob said:

    A couple of predictions then for the record:

    Avery crossover by 25 Dec
    Rod Crosby crossover by May 1

    Noted.

    How about making some predictions of your own, for us to note? For instance, what do you think will be the situation on May 7th next year, with a year to go?

    My own view is that we will be chundering around the level-pegging mark, with various polls showing either a Labour or Conservative lead. I base this on an improving economy and Labour's poor leadership.

    But predictions are perilous and untameable beasts ...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @isam

    I always remember my dad (OGH) saying of Mike Atherton "I wouldn't want anyone playing for England who wasn't prepared to cheat for his country"

    I assume his tongue was at least partially in his cheek

    Yes, I wouldn't want to sound too high and mighty ( although I know I did sound exactly that!)

    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    I think its analogous to having a drunken one night stand against arranging to meet someone for an extra marital affair... both are wrong, but doing regrettable things in the heat of the moment is more forgivable than planning to do so in cold blood

    I'd agree with all of that. And I would like to apologise for my tone in the previous exchange. It was rude and unnecessary.
    Ah that's big of you to say so, thank you.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Show me a man who calls himself a vegan,

    and I'll show you a man who's trying to shag a vegan.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Not
    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    I doubt this was the case - Labour seems incapable of peeving off its core vote in Scotland despite shafting it for the last 30 years.

    Falkirk is more likely to be damaging to Ed in middle England - who are less enamoured with "union firebrands" than the Jockanese.
    not you - Mad Carlotta. S/he spent days on end spamming the thread with it. Ranks up there as one of the worst predictions of all time on PB.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Neil said:

    isam said:


    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    Would you feel bad if you had a manager who was <35?

    I put out a side with a back four of a combined age of 200+ last weekend :/</p>
    Don't the zimmer frames get stuck in the turf?
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited December 2013
    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    You could put Gordon Brown in a suit in Scotland and they'd still vote for Labour.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JosiasJessop said:

    what do you think will be the situation on May 7th next year, with a year to go?

    On May 7th next UKIP might be the most popular party in the country. That wont tell us much about the next GE though.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bobajob said:

    Not

    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    I doubt this was the case - Labour seems incapable of peeving off its core vote in Scotland despite shafting it for the last 30 years.

    Falkirk is more likely to be damaging to Ed in middle England - who are less enamoured with "union firebrands" than the Jockanese.
    not you - Mad Carlotta. S/he spent days on end spamming the thread with it. Ranks up there as one of the worst predictions of all time on PB.
    Do you think the current "do nothing on the economy" is a good idea for Labour - and when should they turn to actual policy ?
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    SouthCoastKevinSouthCoastKevin Posts: 158
    I'm a bit embarrassed at how much this good news for 'my team' (the Lib Dems / government) has pleased me. Oh well, clearly I'm completely partisan... But Osborne at +11 over Balls on 'who would make the best chancellor'? That's just stunning, isn't it, considering Labour are trying to make the economy (okay, the cost of living) their main attack line?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Neil said:

    isam said:


    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    Would you feel bad if you had a manager who was <35?

    I put out a side with a back four of a combined age of 200+ last weekend :/</p>
    The bloke who picks our team is under 35! Its the keepers son!

    I don't think that matters to be honest, I don't feel bad about Gareth Southgate being too old for the U-21s either

    No under 35s in this line up though!

    http://www.clubwebsite.co.uk/hornchurchvetsfc/156433/Home
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Anorak said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:


    Put it this way, I play over 35s football, and would feel bad if we won with a couple of 33 year olds playing, but wouldn't feel as bad if we won thanks to a handballed goal (with no under 35s playing)

    Would you feel bad if you had a manager who was <35?

    I put out a side with a back four of a combined age of 200+ last weekend :/</p>
    Don't the zimmer frames get stuck in the turf?
    I hope to be half as lively as they are when I get to their ages!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    rcs1000 said:

    Show me a man who calls himself a vegan,

    and I'll show you a man who's trying to shag a vegan.

    What do dildos and soya beans have in common ?

    Both get used as substitute meat.

    ::Innocent Face::

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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    Not

    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    I doubt this was the case - Labour seems incapable of peeving off its core vote in Scotland despite shafting it for the last 30 years.

    Falkirk is more likely to be damaging to Ed in middle England - who are less enamoured with "union firebrands" than the Jockanese.
    not you - Mad Carlotta. S/he spent days on end spamming the thread with it. Ranks up there as one of the worst predictions of all time on PB.
    Do you think the current "do nothing on the economy" is a good idea for Labour - and when should they turn to actual policy ?
    Conference 2014. No point having a suite of policies yet. Anything decent, the government pinches a la energy. That came too soon IMO
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Bobajob said:

    Not

    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    I doubt this was the case - Labour seems incapable of peeving off its core vote in Scotland despite shafting it for the last 30 years.

    Falkirk is more likely to be damaging to Ed in middle England - who are less enamoured with "union firebrands" than the Jockanese.
    not you - Mad Carlotta. S/he spent days on end spamming the thread with it. Ranks up there as one of the worst predictions of all time on PB.
    Link to one of my 'predictions'? Since there are so many of them that should be easy to do.....

    If you think Falkirk is 'over' you are even more deluded than hitherto demonstrated.....

    http://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/local-news/falkirk-a-key-independence-referendum-battleground-just-like-in-1993-1-3227516

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labours-secrecy-over-falkirk-scandal-a-gift-to-the-snp-8990849.html
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Bobajob said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bobajob said:

    has had no effect - Falkirk etc, yawn - as forecast by the wiser among us.

    True, Falkirk has had absolutely no effect on the union stranglehold of Labour, as predicted by the wiser among us.

    The PB Kinnocks assured us Ed's 'big fight' with Len was a game changer. How will they respond at the special conference when Len bitch slaps Ed all over again?
    No. The PB McTories assured us it would damage Labour VI in Scotland. It hasn't - the PB McTories were wrong. Suck it up. Move on.
    Polling data? Which polls have reliable Scottish sub-samples?

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Surely the worst prediction of all time on pb.com was Mark Senior's - that there would be no recession. Backed up by a bet of a gold sov....

    Ooooops! Anyone got a better candidate?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    @isam

    The Dean Smith that plays for your team, is he about 45 years old with dark hair and works in the City?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    Show me a man who calls himself a vegan,

    and I'll show you a man who's trying to shag a vegan.

    I'll show that to your mother

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    rcs1000 said:

    @isam

    The Dean Smith that plays for your team, is he about 45 years old with dark hair and works in the City?

    I don't know, he doesn't play now. I only started this season
This discussion has been closed.