Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown
? Jeremy Corbyn's brother was arrested during an anti-lockdown protest in Hyde Park yesterday ? Piers Corbyn was heard claiming that 5G and coronavirus are linked ? Follow the latest coronavirus news here: https://t.co/2d3zjQn3Ro pic.twitter.com/P0zXdKrivR
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Isn't the bigger issue getting people to start going out and spending money again? Plenty of people are still working (allegedly), but as long as consumption is much reduced, the impact on the economy will be severe.
No one is saying CV-19 is harmless for gran. But it doesn't have to be all or nothing. Being in a low risk group suppose you go to the pub once it opens and don't or do socially distance. You would then be aware enough (with government educational support) not to go straight round to your gran's house to give her a beery kiss and bear hug.
Because you ain't seeing your gran right now whatever the situation so why not go down the pub if you are low risk and not see your gran?
https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1262359286228955136?s=21
On Wednesday Starmer owns another donkey?
Are more people dying of cancer because they are not getting treatment?
Is there a change in the suicide rate?
Are people losing their teeth, their sight and other useful parts of their body?
Would those who we are looking to protect prefer to take their chances and see their grandkids?
Any attempt to point to the completely unsustainable cost will run into the argument of Tories caring more about money than lives. We need to focus on the lives being lost and blighted by this and persuade people that because the NHS is now geared up to cope there are worse things out there. As Alastair says, not easy.
48% are working from home (full time)
26% are furloughed
8% are unemployed
which means that 18% of the working population is already working at their place of work, or partly WFH.
So 66% of the workforce are working. Already.
Is this true?
There are lots of people who advocated an earlier lockdown but now want to see a more nuanced approach based on risk. I know because I am one of them!
Others downgraded deaths from cancer and others to second class because they are not newsworthy and are most inconvenient to the the long lockdown argument.
I`d query: "To date, all the people advocating an end to the lockdown were initially arguing that Covid-19 was all a fuss about nothing". I don`t think that`s fair. I don`t know anyone who thought it was a fuss about nothing - other than the loudmouth-geezer-in-the-pub type.
They look legit, but brand new. Set up in January.
BPC suggests they are run by a Bruno Rodrigues, whose name I do not recognise. Seems to be a 35 year old corporate lawyer by trade.
In other cases, productivity will be down and depression up.
From my perspective, I find being in the shop is more productive for the day to day, mundane tasks, and WFH more productive when I have a focused task to do that involves little interaction with others.
But he needs to put the good of the country before himself.
Which I simply don't think he will be able to do.
Not sure there is going to be much for me to do Tuesday-Thursday for a while!
And I agree with Alastair's article
Interestingly it showed a dose dependent response (they tried both 25 and 100 mcg doses). Finers crossed for this one, too.
Neither of us has ever been busier.
The government and Boris are not going to find 'getting back to normal' easy
There are just too many comfortable with lockdown, shielded by furlough, and just plain scared to mix and go back to work
My Mum, a C of E vicar had to phone up 5 braids and tell them that there weddings will be delayed,
A colleague at work, was unable to go to the funeral of his grandmother, because of the 12 person.
A friend of mine who was hoping to have started IVF, has not been able to start that.
The Pro-Lockdown side seem are keen to accuse us of putting the economy before people lives. while the economy is not irreverent, this is fundamentally about freedom, the quality of people lives matters, the ability to do things that you what to. the ability to make your own disitions including about how much risk you are prepared to take.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-18/coronavirus-four-in-ten-care-homes-have-had-outbreaks-no-10-admits/
Bond issuance has exploded as big companies look to finance themselves through this tough period. Interest in investment management performance has also jumped as people try to assess the winners and losers from the carnage.
Reliable information for this sort of thing is suddenly v. useful.
More to the point - what does the central government need to do, to deal with that?
For such individuals the council can -
1) Keep paying them for nothing, forever.
2) Give them work to do.
3) Sack them.
It doesn't need to bring them back to the office to do any of those, if they are WFH.
Drinking coffee,
Going to meetings,
Having a brake,
Compiling abort the boss to the trade union rep.
An asymptomatic NHS district nurse could unfortunately seed an outbreak in multiple homes, it only takes one carrier to get in to start it off.
Look like a newcomer.
I think the government could find a way of easing the lockdown faster on younger people. Again very hard to message right, but the risk to under 50s and certainly under 40s is low.
Neil O Brien MP"
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/05/neil-obrien-bullying-hostage-taking-censorship-bribery-how-china-is-dealing-with-its-critics-abroad.html
Interesting quote from this article:
"China borrows from the World Bank at one per cent (that’s your money) and loans it on at up to six per cent."
They abide by BPC rules, and have hired people who have worked in the polling industry.
And it goes the other way. If you asymptomatically bring it in you risk infecting not just your own mother but everyone else's relatives in the home, and the staff, and a nurse who can then take it to another home.
This is why the only way to stop the care home outbreaks is to stop all community transmission. Completely.
Otherwise just write off the care homes as a price worth paying for lifting lockdown prematurely. I'm not prepared to do that when it looks like we have a viable safer alternative.
It's already down over 80%. Many other nations have eliminated it, why can't we do what they've done?
We've got the testing capabilities now, we've got the base load massively down. Why can't we eliminate the final 20%?
And if we can confidence will soar. It's a gamble worth taking for me.
And I daresay we also can't afford the milder form of attempt to achieve the impossible we have now. As millions are about to find out.
My mother is appalled that other residents are being denied seeing their own loved ones to protect herself (my mother). She`s never asked for this protection, has never sought it and disagrees with it.
Nigel_Foremain said:
» show previous quotes
Malcolmg is the Nat equivalent of HYUFD. Nicola could tell him the moon was made of cheese an he would ask her what variety. I always find it very odd that someone who is so critical of everyone else could be so gullible when it comes to messages from their own side.
You really are a totally thick numpty. You do not obviously read my posts , jog on you sad thicko.
In all seriousness, 462 euros PER HOUSEHOLD per month seems a tiny amount.
Hold on, if reading that correctly, it is just 1 million poorest households, so isn't universal then. How's that any different to normal benefits schemes?
I don't think we can or should lockdown for long but I think we have already squished this over 80% and just a couple more weeks would make containment a viable strategy. At which point you should be able to see your mother.
The total cost of the system is estimated at nearly €5.5 billion a year, an amount equivalent to just over half the monthly cost of Spanish pension payments. This amount will gradually fall over time, as the guaranteed minimum income system absorbs other social benefits.
https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-04-19/spains-guaranteed-minimum-income-scheme-will-come-with-55bn-price-tag.html
So about as far from UBI idea as you can get then. Its a mean test benefits like most schemes across the world. Sounds more like universal credit, wrapping a load of other benefits into one payment.
All shops are not supposed to be open yet.
Contagious patients were sent from NHS hospitals to care homes to free up beds. And this is the same state that we should take 'stop all community transmission' from . The state that was responsible at least in part for the care home outbreak itself.
I'd love to know what the left here would say if the government here suggested that as a universal basic income.
Fact Checking is so last decade.
Matt Hancock says 21,000 people have been recruited to conduct contact-tracing in England, including 7,500 healthcare workers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52713127
I think lifting prematurely while people don't want it lifting only to see people stay at home will do far more damage to the economy. Businesses that open up will see costs go up and if there's no customers to pay those bills they will go bust.
I think eradicating this (at least to containable levels) will do less damage not more, from where we are. We've done most of the work.
If you make some good quality outdoor woodwork you don't go to all the effort of building it only to not bother to put the varnish on. For me a little bit now is the varnish, it will keep what's been done and ensure we can get back to a real normal sooner. Which is what we need, we need a real return to normal not a fake one.
I try not to give out too many biographical details on PB, but I am willing to reveal that I am over the age of five, as much as that might surprise some PBers.
Now it is basically anybody who doesn't feel well can ask for a test, to see if they have it.
Antibody testing is for if you think you have had it. They are coming, but will be used on front line healthcare staff first and also population sampling.