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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for 40/1 Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth
This weekend the junior senator for Illinois, Tammy Duckworth, is due to have a meeting with presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, about the possibility of her being on the ticket in November.
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FPT: on the Welsh Government and Groups of 2. The original Corona Regs stated "gatherings of not more than two may not..." so allowed them.
I have no idea whether it has changed, because the system that should doc. the law in Wales is as confused as Mark Drakeford himself.
Which makes it a bothersome sort of day for some.
Just like the Jamaican Olympic 100m team in London 2012.
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JohnLilburne said:
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Surely it means Nicola is safe in post until someone else named after a fish comes along
Salmond II coming to a parliament near you soon
Is it possible that those with a strong innate immune system, if lightly infected, will dispose of the virus without the adaptive immune system coming into play and therefore not displaying antibodies in serology tests?
If that is the case, then they may form a large component of "herd immunity" at least to light viral loads but not show up in the tests.
They could explain why the epidemic seems to fizzle out at apparent low levels of overall infection.
I assume the models and interpretation of testing data are taking this possibility into account?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/elizabeth-warren-biden-vice-president/611497/
As well as the many political arguments in her favour, there is an emotional tie.
"Warren told me about a call she received from Biden the morning after her brother died [in April]. Their conversation was “one person who’d lost loved ones trying to console another person who just lost her beloved brother,” she said.
Connections formed in grief tend to stay with Biden. This one has certainly stayed with Warren."
I go through that on here sometimes.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1261659858048372736?s=20
Can you explain where you think it "fizzled out" - I mean somewhere where extreme measures weren't adopted to stop it from spreading?
The denialist loonies seem to be adopting this idea of "it never infects a very high proportion of the population" as a kind of magical riposte to the basic laws of epidemiology. It somehow magically stops of its own accord. But is there actually any evidence to suggest it stops of its own accord, rather than being stopped by extreme counter-measures?
She is fairly mainstream in the Democrat party - think Biden (who is on the right of the Dems*) would want to reach towards the New Left?
*That means he is to the right of the current UK government.
Sánchez wants it to be extended for a month, instead of the customary two weeks. The current extension is due to expire in a week's time.
Look at the effect in China as it comes out of lockdown. The reported overall infection rate is low. The virus is still there. It is not growing exponentially. Perhaps there is a large number of people with strong immune systems.
I'm just asking questions. I'm not denying anything. I'm very open minded on this. Just probing conventional wisdom in a situation of a lot of unknowns.
We have a chance to rethink things here in various areas and the tendency to want the same as before is going to hamper ways forward. The exam system, the approach to disadvantaged students, the use of technology etc., all of these areas are ready to be made anew and better. Break it down, build it up.
BJO along to tell us that is really shite in 5, 4, 3.....
https://youtu.be/yixdveuf0GQ
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1261633870442700800?s=20
https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/
It doesn't seem to justify locking up the innocent, er sorry 'the healthy'.
We drew 2-2 with Middlesbrough
But as usual, he doesn't explain how, in that case, 0.25% of the entire population of New York City could already have been killed by the virus.
1. She has lots of well thought out plans including for Covid-19 and is articulate in explaining them (in contrast to both presidential candidates).
2. She is bursting with energy and commitment bringing fizz and money to the campaign. (Contrast that with Kamala Harris the favourite)
3. She is to the left of Biden and can attract many Bernie supporters.
4. Obama rates her (read the article) and Biden listens to Obama.
Guess it depends where the numbers go now - we don't seem to have much room for error.
This is just irrational nonsense.
On the one hand, you're telling us a large percentage of the population may be immune. On the other, you're telling us 100% of the population of New York City may have been infected!
I do wonder if this goes on too long that the fireman's the postman's and the shopworker's kids will all be at Oxford and Cambridge whilst those belonging to the stockbroker, the lawyer and the business executive will all be on the scrapheap.
0.4% is little more justification for putting me under house arrest than 0.25%. People who are terrified of it are still free to stay at home and not visit friends or relatives.
But it would be good if the government would ask someone like Spiegelhalter to advise them on risk comparison and management. At the moment, they appear not much more knowledgeable than Mrs Jones next door, aged 48, who thinks that she may well die if she goes down the shops.
The NHS already is supposed to be managed this way, by NICE costing the risks and benefits of different treatments. This was suddenly discarded in a blind panic.
EDIT: It obviously depends what you mean by "fatality rate". You seem quite passionate and defensive about this and push back vigourously on any questioning in spite of the uncertainty and unknowns.
The Roche Antibody test is finding detectable antibodies in nearly everyone proven to have it.
Until we have population antibody tests with such a reliable test we really cannot know.
Not high enough to generate the "iceberg effect" that gets us towards herd immunity faster and slams the brakes on new infections.
But not so low to prevent there being chains of asymptomatic transmission which bugger up "play-to-win whack-a-mole" strategies based on contact tracing. (A different context since there the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic, but this is one of the reasons polio has proven to be a tough nut to crack. Plenty of places where the virus is still being detected in human sewage despite no recorded cases for years.)
I hope to be wrong and this isn't on any more of a scientific basis than the mere observation of both high and low estimates of asymptomatic infections still being circulated by their proponents.
That is all.
Are you so poisoned by Brexit you want this country to fail to satisfy your despair
It is tragic if so
https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/United_Kingdom
https://bwc-ecbm.unog.ch/confidence-building-measure-part-2/uk-mod-biological-defence-research-and-development-programme-0
To suggest that 100% of the population of New York City have been infected in this sense is completely untenable.
You have to squint to actually see the brown, dwarfed as it is by a blue wave of 100,000s of predicted casualties.
Hopefully, Biden will take Bill Clinton's advice on reaching out there rather than HRC's team of data jockeys who didn't even have her visit Wisconsin once.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1261672792484917248?s=21
I think this is a sticking point that eventually is going to have to get bulldozed through. Different venues will end up getting treated differently not because of differences in their risks, but differences in the benefits of reopening them (or more bluntly, the costs of them being closed).
On a purely scientific basis, it might be identified that the school system and entertainment venues (as a purely hypothetical example) are similarly unsafe in terms of contributing comparably to transmissions. But it isn't "illogical", as some people claim, to keep entertainment venues closed while trying to more of the school system up and running again (with some extra social distancing measures, compulsory hand-washing, adapted timetable, more thorough cleaning rota etc) because the damage done to society by a (largely) closed school system exceeds the damage done by by a closed entertainment sector.
Every little bit of restarting society and the economy makes an additional contribution to raising R, which is a bugger. It's pretty similar to the classical knapsack problem" ("Given a set of items, each with a weight and a value, determine the number of each item to include in a collection so that the total weight is less than or equal to a given limit and the total value is as large as possible"). One thing I've seen people moan a lot about is "how come it's now okay to have estate agent viewings and to move house, but I can't invite family around, isn't that completely inconsistent?" But with only a few thousand people likely to be moving around, compared to millions of family reunions, the "weight" (contribution to R) is minimal and the "value" of getting the property market somewhat unstuck is deemed sufficient high (we do want people to be able to move for work, especially key workers, and moves to enable family caring solutions outside care homes may also be desirable).
You can try to reopen things in a way that reduces their "weight" while only reducing their social value as little as possible, but that only works up to an extent. Face-to-face teaching is something sufficiently valuable that it's an obvious priority to go back in the knapsack and even with a lot of thought going into preventative measures it's going to be a heavy one.
Protection for teachers, particularly teachers in higher-risk groups, is a valid issue and something unions are right to flag up.
(A complication of the "knacksack" model of restarting society is I don't think that the effect on R of reopening both X and Y is just the sum of the effects of X and Y - by changing the social mixing matrix in two ways you end up creating new transmission routes. But I don't think the analogy is a bad one overall.)
https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/adult-flu-vaccination-coverage
As such, why believe anything they say now? You make such a big error and trust is in very short supply,
This is one of the real contrasts with places like New Zealand and Denmark. They acted early and decisively. The UK response has been late and weak.